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EAST COAST HANDICAPPING REPORT

ECHR (Since 2012) www.EastCoastHorseRacing.com *Sister report of the popular WCHR, this is the East Coast Version! In the classic Steve Davidowitz book, BETTING THOROUGHBREDS IN THE 21ST CENTURY, a MUST read regardless of whether you're an expert handicapper or beginner, Davidowitz says: "West Coast Handicapping Report (WCHR), put together with exceptional dedication by Rob Henie. His handicapping expertise is first-rate, but of equal import are the stats he provides that give insights into the daily Southern California racing scene. Probably the best daily report in California, since Ron Cox and Don Montillon's Northern California Track Record." *The WCHR is available at WestCoastRacing.com The ECHR offers full daily reports from: *Belmont (Current Meet) *Saratoga *Belmont *Gulfstream The ECHR is available at EastCoastHorseRacing.com
"Successful handicappers combine intelligence, patience, discipline and roll-up-your-sleeves hard work to thrive in the difficult world of thoroughbred racing. There is no quick fix or magic elixir that turns a hopeless loser into a successful player. But what can be of great service is to read the work of Rob Henie, in the East Coast Handicapping Report (ECHR) and West Coast Handicapping Report (WCHR). Through tireless study of replays, grasping successful workout patterns, and understanding the intention of trainers, Henie's reports are written in a clear, concise, and logical way AND you will learn about the nuances of the game. Personally, I highly recommend his work and would encourage all others to give it a read. I have and I'm glad I did." -Bob Neumeier 20-plus years as TV analyst for NBC Sports "In my view, it certainly behooves anyone who wagers on the races at Gulfstream Park in the wintertime or the New York tracks during the rest of the year to read the ECHR. Those who follow the WCHR, the sister publication that covers racing in Southern California, have long known that Rob Henie not only does a terrific job in picking winners, he is adept at finding winners who go off at handsome odds. That is not easy. And best of all, I think, is if you read the ECHR, you not only find out WHO Henie likes, you find out WHY he likes a horse." --Jon White HRTV commentator and Santa Anita's morning-line maker and simulcast television host ECHR - Its not pretty darn good, its great!! Ive been handicapping for almost 40 years. I learn more from your narratives than I do from any other source. The picks are helpful, but without the insightful narratives it wouldnt be nearly as valuable. -- Bill Shurman 10 Time NHC Qualifier

ECHR 2013 Schedule Belmont (April 26 - July 14) FULL REPORTS Saratoga (July 19 - September 2) FULL REPORTS Belmont (September 7 - October 27) FULL REPORTS Aqueduct (November 1 - November 31) FULL REPORTS Gulfstream (December 1 - December 31) FULL REPORTS Friday, February 8th -THE GULFSTREAM RAINBOW SIX WE PRESENTED COST $2.40.......IT RETURNED $3,521.69

ECHR Fair Value Wager Stats (report opened June 28th, 2012) June 28, 2012 through June 28, 2013 ECHR Fair Value Prices Who Met their Listed Price (Based on $20 Win Wagers) Year 1 - INVESTED:$2,560.00 RETURN:$3,677.20 PROFIT +1,117.20 Fridays Fair Value Wagers: ($20 win wagers only applicable if either, or both, Fair Value prices are met or exceeded) None Today Belmont Jockey Leaders Castellano 64 winners Alvarado 53 winners Lezcano 46 winners Rosario 46 winners Belmont Trainer Leaders Jacobson 41 winners C. Brown 23 winners Pletcher 23 winners Clement 17 winners
Double Digit Winners:

Searching for double digit winners is the product of much hard work, lots of note taking, video watching, and for regular horseplayers, we believe its the ONLY WAY to play the horses. Favorites are logical, and yes, well use them when nothing else fits, but selecting a well backed runner is simply concurring with the obvious, and the obvious does not create riches let alone profits over the long haul. Longer priced runners offer a contrary stance in the face of public sentiment, and the rewards are there for the taking, precisely what were looking to deliver for our loyal ECHR Members.

Thursday Belmont Track Tendencies Main Track - Fair Turf - Fair

Already numerous TOP PICK double digit winners including $49.20, $37.40, $26.80, $22.60, $21.20, $17.00, and no other public handicapper or service can match those double digit winners.
Super Feed Barns: Jacobson continues to run away with the trainer title, and we should not be surprised. These types of barns have their own feed program and they know what theyre doing. Theres a reason why guys such as Jacobson, Ness, Asmussen, Chad Brown, Rudy Rodriguez have so much success with runners finding an extra gear turning for home. As weve also noted numerous times in recent months, once a runner shows success in one of these barns, they subject to be claimed by another super feed conditioner, precisely why many runners get passed back and forth between these guys. Also, watch the horses leaving average barns for these high octane barns, as improvement is almost always sure to follow.

LAST WEEK: Numerous winners in the ECHR, including TOP PICK wins from Bedouin Now $18.00....Touchofstarquality $14.20.....Bad Hombre $13.60, Effie Trinket $11.60.
Handicapping Subjects At A Glance: Race 1- Illusions of a race Race 6 - Cortisone Race 7 - Backing smaller barns Race 8 - Closers off the Layoff

Friday - July 12
Belmont Weather: *76 SHOWERS First Post: 3:00 pm (eastern time)

*A reminder, races are only in play if remaining on their listed surface. FIRST RACE: Maiden 50,000 claiming event at a mile on the TURF. Top selection is
GALWAY (#3). First off, 8-1 on the morning line is unrealistic as well expect a price in the 9-2 range. Her debut was just fine, and at first glance when watching her last race, she appeared to be running evenly down the lane. The reality was, the group up front was flying, thus her effort appeared tapered a bit late, yet she still was able to get the final in about :23.2. She was also claimed by super feed trainer in Jacobson, and though moving up in class on paper, its really not the case as this group isnt much. An improved effort with the added distance and new feed program in place is likely. QUINTILE (#1) is worthy of a look. She showed nothing at Gulfstream but once joining the Levine barn off the claim and upon being brought north, she immediately gained needed confidence. Irad is a nice fit and with the seven week rest in place, she has every right to return with another strong try down the lane. One other note, notice the presence of only one work for Levine? This is actually a good sign as his live runners off the rest are often show only one work with the prep work being done elsewhere. Pace: Moderate early and late. Win Contenders: 3-1 X Out Runners (on the win end): 6

Positive Notes: Judy G - Fits nicely against this group today. Notional Girl - Lezcano riding for Ubillo is a very positive thing to see. Negative Notes: Giftie Gie - Placement today off the long layoff is a bit steep, well give the effort as shell need the race for Tagg. TOP PICK: GALWAY (#3 8-1 Cohen) SECOND CHOICE: QUINTILE (#1 8-1 I Ortiz)

SECOND RACE: A Maiden Special Weight at 5 furlongs. Top selection is H TOWN


BROWN (#4). Hes been working in a typical Kenneally manner thats indicative of a well meant debut. Notice as well that Johnny V. rides here, not riding for either of the Pletcher runners, certainly an endorsement of this colt, and well follow the lead on this one, after all, its better to realize things while putting two and two together BEFORE the race is run. PERMANENT CAMPAIGN (#2) ran nicely in his debut before fading slightly, but the mere fact he showed the ability to even get to the front is always encouraging when looking at a first timer, as it simply points out that a touch of talent is present and the experience factor can allow for more stick in the next effort, which comes here today. Violette has been very happy with Rosario thus a good thing to see here, and a much tighter effort in the second start is likely. Pace: Moderate early and late. Win Contenders: 4-2-5 X Out Runners (on the win end): 1,3 Positive Notes: Enlisted Man - comes from the Steve Hobby barn. The debut wasnt much at Churchill, but then again, he was facing a pretty good field while breaking from the rail, such a tough spot as most debut runners have never lined up against multiple runners from the gate, let alone having to deal with the obstacle to their inside as well. Well expect better in this second start.

First Timers: Hallelujah High - Pletcher debut runner is in need of the debut here. Rolloncat - Badgett debut runner will also need this first try. Kingofgoldstreet - Albertrani giving the debut here. Danza - Works are okay for Pletcher, but our inclination here is that theyll go long at the Spa with Castellano stringing along for that one as well.

TOP PICK: H TOWN BROWN (#4 3-1 Velazquez) SECOND CHOICE: PERMANENT CAMPAIGN (#2 2-1 Rosario)

THIRD RACE: An allowance event at 1 1/16 miles on the TURF. Top selection is
unfortunately the 4-5 morning line choice in KHARAFA (#2). He strings three races together for the first time in 2013, and this particular group should allow for a front running effort, allowing him to gain needed confidence along the backside which will serve him well down the lane with Maragh just a great fit. A nice effort is likely. INTERMIX (#6) ran nicely in his debut which also happened to be his American debut. Its true he exits an N2L allowance event, but multiple runners in here are still eligible for the N2L level, while the horse whos won more than any in here, IRISH LION, his recent form doesnt scream of any decent condition to speak of. Well look for the likely improvement this one brings to the table to fit nicely today, making only his sixth lifetime start. The presence of Jose Lezcano back for Mott is also super encouraging, and a progressive effort and/or win, is something we can easily rationalize here. ` Pace: Moderate early with a quick final , the winner likely will be up close throughout. Win Contenders: 2-6-1 X Out Runners (on the win end): 8 Positive Notes: Ampersand - Hes a very tough competitor who rarely is bothered during a race, able to adjust before he comes running. Rugged - Has shown a tough hard trying spirit going , and those types of efforts often translate well when allowed to race up close at 1 1/16 miles. 20-1 on the morning line is too high with lasix added today as well. Selections Sunday - Form has been nice, while his action is encouraging, reaching out with long healthy strides. The presence of Rosario is also encouraging. Negative Notes: Overwhelming - Not quick enough early nor late. TOP PICK: KHARAFA (#2 4-5 Maragh) SECOND CHOICE: INTERMIX (#6 10-1 J Lezcano)

FOURTH RACE: A Maiden Special Weight at six furlongs on the TURF. This event consists
of an entire field of first timers. Top selection is GENERAL JACK (#9). Hes making his debut for Maker, coming in from Kentucky while given a local work, often a very nice sign for this trainer. Rosario up for Mike is always a good thing while this is a pretty nice outside post, allowing Joel to find a nice easy rhythm early before responding late. BASHART (#5) is making

his debut coming from the Pletcher barn, and theres no question this work tab and placement is indicative of a live first timer for Todd. The fact Velazquez is up is encouraging, and a win is well within reason. Lets take a look at the other firsters below. Pace: Quick early and moderate late. Win Contenders: 9-5-6 X Out Runners (on the win end): 2,7,10 First Timers: Scoria - Clement first timer working well, but were inclined to give the race from the rail. Street Gent - Will need this debut. Frogman Mel - Pletcher runner been working at Monmouth, and though Castellano is up, this is likely a prep for Saratoga. Stalagmite - Morley runner will need the outing. Tiger Bourbon - Kenneally runner working well, while Lezcano up is encouraging, and wed certainly include on tickets. Broadyway Matinee - Wilkes firster will need the debut. Gaining Ground - Appears to have a touch of ability for Wilson but this is a salty spot. Marias Dunkirk - Contessa first timer will absolutely need the debut. More Than Classic - Ward first timer with apprentice Davis up (son of Robbie), working nicely but this is a tough spot with the 11 hole not likely aiding the task. TOP PICK: GENERAL JACK (#9 3-1 Rosario) SECOND CHOICE: BASHART (#5 4-1 Velazquez)

FIFTH RACE: A Maiden Special Weight at seven furlongs. Top selection is FASHION CITY
(#2). As we mentioned yesterday, when July rolls around, the two year olds for Pletcher are rolled out in droves, most with good intentions at first asking. Yesterday we saw a fantastic debut from Ari The Adventurer, and today this filly appears ready to follow the trend. The works are excellent, Johnny V. takes the call, and a strong effort from gate to wire is likely. LAGUNA GIRL (#7) ran fantastic off the layoff when second to a nice Hushion filly, and really, she could have won the race had she simply switched leads, which never happened. Today shell get an ideal trip while able to relax from this short outside post and a win is pretty viable here. Quite comfortable with this pair, lets move along.

Pace: Quick early and late, a nice little group. Win Contenders: 2-7 X Out Runners (on the win end): 1,5 Negative Notes: Merry Meadow - Always tries hard, but our top two selections will find her dealing with the inside Pletcher speed along with the stalking trip from the outside runner, a tough one-two punch shell have to overcome, and well look to defeat here. Post Position Angles: Laguna Girl - Gets to once again break outside of horses. First Timers: Quay - Works for Ribaudo are nice, but a pretty salty spot. Simply Sinister - Will need the debut. TOP PICK: FASHION CITY (#2 7-5 Velaquez) SECOND CHOICE: LAGUNA GIRL (#7 5-1 Rosario)

SIXTH RACE: An optional claiming event at 1 1/16 miles on the TURF. We believe this
event is begging to be won by a front runner, and with that in mind, top selection is SALLYS DREAM (#4). We often like to point out when a runner is displaying patterns of possible cortisone use, and that appears to be the case with this filly. Shes been pretty inconsistent in 2013, but her most recent two tries were noticeably sharper, and its also no surprise that Castellano is given a leg up today. Those up close efforts going a mile, a distance typically better suited for closing types, set her up well for this more methodical 1 1/16 assignment, where Javier can likely settle her into some slower early splits before responding down the lane. If our assessment with regard to the cortisone is correct, she needs a good effort this afternoon as the window of opportunity for this drug is about two months, give or take a bit. Looking for a solid front running effort here. DARLING BRIDEZILLA (#6) is returning off a five month layoff, and what a great spot to find a big effort. Shes been working super for the return, and will likely get first run turning for home at the top selection. Jose is back yet again and a solid try is pretty likely against this shallow weak bunch. Pace: Slow early and late, the winner can come from any point on the track in this one. Win Contenders: 4-6 X Out Runners (on the win end): 1A,5 Positive Notes: Celebrity Sighting - Stringing races together for the first time in over a year.

House On Toilsome - Faced a nice group in her last effort while now being returned to a route. Negative Notes: Another Please - Closing effort on paper in her most recent was more of an illusion than an actual progressive try. Beautiful Risk - Another where the appearance of a closing effort was really not so. TOP PICK: SALLYS DREAM (#4 3-1 Castellano) SECOND CHOICE: DARLING BRIDEZILLA (#6 7-2 J Lezcano)

SEVENTH RACE: An optional claiming event at a mile on the main track. Top choice is
TYCOON CAT (#4). The first thing well do is take our pen, and draw a line through not only his effort in the mud two back, but also his recent turf outings. By doing this, it gives us a slightly better perspective on his abilities over the main track. His last try was excellent. Hes a huge five year old whos simply better suited for a minimum of or better yet, this mile distance, and he really displayed a nice powerful stride during the final of that event, running hard to the wire while in pursuit of the winner and stablemate Kingsford Drive, who was 3-5 that day. Hes back in seven days, and as we mention often to members, quick turnarounds with regard to the super feed trainers is often a very encouraging thing. Rosario sees fit to string along and a sharp effort is on the way here. MP JOE (#9) comes off a maiden win and is 30-1 on the morning line but hes not without a look from where we sit. Hes been freshened for this first try against winners, but overall he tries hard, has never been embarrassed on the main track, and this one turn mile could be useful to him. He comes from the smaller Chin barn, but as we remind members often, never disregard a horse simply because they hail from a smaller outfit. These are the types of barns that need wins so badly, not only to help pay the barn fees, but good efforts are essential to attracting new owners, better riders, and overall a better image for the future. The smaller trainer can also lay his or her hands on each runner in the barn everyday, as opposed to the big barns where this simply isnt the case. If he outruns his price on the board it wouldnt surprise us one bit, and he can likely be pretty useful behind our top pick in the exacta realm of things even if not in a winning position. Pace: Moderate early and late, no tactical style olds a distinct edge over another, giving a look to all types here. Win Contenders: 4-9-5 X Out Runners (on the win end): 2,6,10 Positive Notes: Ghostly Vision - Tries very hard and is a nice fit from numerous angles here. Negative Notes: Ego Friendly - Kimmel needs to drop to allow him to regain needed confidence. TOP PICK: TYCOON CAT (#4 6-1 Rosario)

SECOND CHOICE: MP JOE (#9 30-1 Espinoza)

EIGHTH RACE: An optional claiming event at seven furlongs on the TURF. Top selection is
BLINGO (#3). Hes making his east coast debut for Shirreffs off the 11 month layoff, but his off the pace style means he can certainly fire off the rest today. Heres our ECHR-WCHR angle on the subject - Its easier to find a big effort off the bench with a horse who figures to relax while getting into a nice breathing pattern early and therefore allowing him to finish down the lane.Why is is this? The trainer essentially is prepping his horse to settle before coming with a final run, as opposed to the horse who needs to run hard from gate to wire off the bench, a task which is further complicated by the speed types off the bench whore are often twice as wound-up having not run for a bit. Getting those types to settle early while out on the front end is often difficult. This is a good looking son of Artie Schiller as youll see when he steps onto the track, and this work pattern is just so good for John, no question indicative of a live runner off the layoff. MIA POPPY (#1) will be pushed hard from the gate by Castellano. He strings three races together for the first time in almost exactly one year to the day, a good sign of returning good health. The last time he won was on October 25th as our top pick at 8-1 (one of the numerous double digit winners the ECHR had at the short Belmont Fall Meet), but today hes spotted well with the good health returning and a Castellano doing what he does best out on the lead. With this pair, well have the most likely effective closing type along with the most effective front runner, two nice contrary styles which is often a great way to capture an event. Pace: Quick to moderate early, moderate late. Win Contenders: 3-1 X Out Runners (on the win end): 5,6,8 Positive Notes: Sayaad - Strings races together for the first time since last September. Negative Notes: Majestic Jess - Will need his American debut for Amy Weaver. TOP PICK: BLINGO (#3 7-2 Alvarado) SECOND CHOICE: MIA POPPY (#1 6-1 Castellano)

NINTH RACE: Maiden 16,000 claiming types at six furlongs, and according to our race
strength numbers, this is the fourth weakest maiden group at the entire Meet. Top selection would be HARVEST KING (#10). He at least tries, which is more than could be said for most in here. His last effort was a nice second as our top pick and though facing little, it was still a better group than this bunch. From this ten hole look for Jiminez to push early while stalking and pouncing when passing the 5/16 pole. OPPOSING PARTIES (#8) has more of a right to improve and run well over most of these. Hes shortened in distance, facing much lesser, and Irad taking over for Orseno is a good thing. If he has anything to offer, itll come here, and we

like the fact Orseno doesnt completely bury his confidence by waiting until his 12th or 13th start before allowing him to try weaker. Well see everyone on Saturday. Pace: Moderate early but the final figures super slow. Win Contenders: 10-8 X Out Runners (on the win end): 2,3,6 Negative Notes: Go to the Net - Been there done that, over and over the same thing. A STALE runner offering little. M P Ruckus - That second place effort last time came against a lesser field than even these. Gamble - Galloped out terribly last time out. TOP PICK: HARVEST KING (#10 10-1 Jiminez) SECOND CHOICE: OPPOSING PARTIES (#8 8-1 I Ortiz)

Race Overview / Pick Six Analysis: Race 1 - Looking at a pair of 8-1 m/l prices. Race 2 - Not much value. Race 3 - Likely a short price on the front end. PICK SIX BEGINS / NO CARRYOVER Race 4 - Multiple selections would be useful (consider 5,6,9) Race 5 - FASHION CITY and LAGUNA GIRL (2,7) Race 6 - SALLYS DREAM and DARLING BRIDEZILLA (4,6) Race 7 - Multiple selections would be useful (consider 4,5,9) Race 8 - MIA POPPY and BLINGO (1,3) Race 9 - OPPOSING PARTIES and HARVEST KING (8,10) Most Likely Winner of Day: Race 3 - Kharafa