Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
About
the
Author
Dr
Helene
Lavoix
(MFin
Paris,
MSc
PhD
Lond)
is
a
political
scientist
(International
Relations)
specialised
in
Strategic
Foresight
and
Warning
(SF&W)
for
conventional
and
unconventional
security
issues.
She
is
the
founder
of
Red
(team)
Analysis,
advises
institutional
actors,
researches
commissioned
reports
and
speaks
at
workshops
and
public
conferences.
She
served
as
Senior
Scientific
Advisor
to
the
Global
Futures
Forum
(GFF
-
a
multinational
partnership
of
intelligence
and
security
organizations
at
unclassified
level),
after
having
been
the
coordinator
of
the
GFF
SF&W
Community
of
Interest
2008-2011
and
lead
of
the
corresponding
online
community
2007-2008.
She
has
taught
SF&W
at
MSc
level
as
Visiting
Senior
Fellow
at
the
RSIS,
NTU
in
Singapore
2010-2011.
Prior
to
that,
she
served
as
an
analyst
in
International
Relations
(Eastern
Asia
and
Globalisation)
for
the
European
Commission,
created
and
headed
in
Phnom-Penh
the
Cambodian
branch
of
a
NGO
in
the
field
of
Development
and
worked
in
finance,
as
treasurer.
She
is
the
author,
among
other
publications,
of
What
makes
foresight
actionable:
the
cases
of
Singapore
and
Finland
(confidential
commissioned
report,
US
government,
November
2010),
Enabling
Security
for
the
21st
Century:
Intelligence
&
Strategic
Foresight
and
Warning
RSIS
Working
Paper
August
2010,
Constructing
an
Early
Warning
System,
in
From
Early
Warning
to
Early
Action,
European
Commission,
ed.
DG
Relex,
2008,
"Detailed
chronology
of
mass
violence
Cambodia
(1945
1979),
Online
Encyclopaedia
of
mass
violence,
2008
and
the
editor
of
Strategic
Foresight
and
Warning:
Navigating
the
Unknown,
ed.
RSIS-CENS,
February
2011.
Cover
Page
Photo
Credit:
Front
-
FSA
rebels
cleaning
their
AK47s
in
Aleppo,
Syria
during
the
civil
war
(19
October
2012).
VOA
News;
Scott
Bobb
reporting
from
Aleppo,
Syria,
via
Wikimedia
Commons
Front
and
Back
-
Enigma
Machine,
Part
of
the
Photograph
by
Rama,
Wikimedia
Commons,
CC-BY-SA-2.0-fr
This report by Helene Lavoix is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License.
Executive Summary
The
Syrian
war
is
a
challenging
problem
for
actionable
strategic
foresight
and
warning
because,
besides
the
humanitarian
disaster,
the
risks
to
regional
and
global
peace
and
stability
continuously
increase,
because
the
conflict
is
redrawing
the
strategic
outlook
of
the
region
while
participating
into
a
global
paradigm
shift,
and,
finally,
because
the
fog
of
war
makes
our
anticipatory
task
more
difficult.
Furthermore,
the
situation
in
Syria
is
complex
and
fluid.
Thus,
it
does
not
lend
itself
easily
to
oversimplification
and
demands
permanent
monitoring
and
agile
policy
so
that
decisions
do
not
backfire
and
imply
adverse
strategic
consequences.
The
Syrian
battlefield
involves
more
than
1000
factions
and
groups,
some
more
powerful
than
others.
We
are
at
this
stage
when
the
length
of
the
war
has
created
enough
havoc
and
chaos
to
allow
every
willing
clan
to
create
its
own
localised
guerrilla
group,
whilst
the
dynamics
of
the
Syrian
insurgency
has
not
or
not
yet
or
not
completely
allowed
a
few
groups
to
take
real
pre-eminence.
Thus,
all
classifications
should
be
taken
with
the
utmost
carefulness
and
what
is
true
one
day
may
well
change
the
next.
Again
this
backdrop,
five
main
types
of
Syrian
actors
and
their
international
backers
fight
for
power
in
and
over
Syria,
namely
the
pro-Assad
groups,
the
moderate
opposition
forces
and
the
Muslim
Brotherhood
related
groups,
the
Kurds
in
Syria,
the
Islamist
groups
fighting
for
an
Islamist
state
in
Syria,
and,
finally,
the
groups
linked
to
a
global
Jihadi
Front.
Three
main
scenarios
(leading
to
ten
sub-scenarios)
for
the
future
of
Syria
and
prospects
for
peace
within
the
next
five
years
follow
from
this
state
of
play.
Some
of
the
regional
impacts
are
included
within
the
scenarios
(the
full
international
consequences
will
be
addressed
in
a
second
volume).
The
Syrian
scenarios
will
evolve,
notably
in
terms
of
likelihood,
from
changes
on
the
battleground
and
from
interactions
between
all
actors.
Those
scenarios
are
thus
best
understood
as
a
dynamic
and
Helene
Lavoix
A
Red
(team)
Analysis
Report
July
2013
systemic set where one scenario can lead to another one according to events on the ground, as shown in the graphic below. The thickness of the arrow shows higher probability and shorter timeline: the thicker an arrow, the more likely and the quicker a scenario would evolve in a specific direction; alternatively a dotted line shows lower probability and/or longer timeline. Probability and timeline will evolve according to events.
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
TABLE OF CONTENT
Executive Summary Introduction State of Play Understanding
the
current
state
of
play
and
the
actors
Pro-Al-Assad
Regime
Groups
Political
overview
Evaluating
Pro-Al-Assad
regime
Forces
Syrian
Forces
Foreign
Forces
1 5 6 6
9
9
9
9
11
The National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NC) and the Supreme Joint Military Command Council (SJMCC or SMC) 12 Political overview How many fighters belong to the SMC? Moderates or all opposition forces? What happened to the defectors? The Kurds Syrian Sunni factions intending to install an Islamist state in Syria Sunni extremist factions with a global jihadi agenda Scenarios: The future of Syria within the next five years Scenario 1: Peace in Geneva? Sub-scenario 1.1.: All but the Jihadis Sub-scenario 1.1.1.: A fragile Syrian external peace Sub-scenario 1.1.2.: Back to civil war Jihadis advantage? Sub-scenario 1.2.: All but the Salafis Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report 12 15 15 16 17 22 25 28 29 29 29 30 30 July 2013
Sub-scenario 1.2.1.: An unlikely very fragile external peace Sub-scenario 1.2.2.: Back to civil war Salafis advantage? Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 1 Scenario 2: No Syrian in Geneva Scenario Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 2 Evolutions for Scenario 2 Scenario 3: A Real Victory in Syria? Scenario 3 explanation Scenario 3.1.: An Islamic al-Sham? Scenario Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 3.1. Scenario 3.2.: A Nationalist Islamic Syria? Scenario Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 3.2. Scenario 3.3.: A Secular Syria? Scenario 3.3.1. A Muslim Brotherhoods Syria Scenario 3.3.2. A Truly Secular Syria? Scenario 3.4. Back to an Al-Assad Syria? Scenario Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 3.4. Evaluating Forces on the Syrian Battlefield The Syrian War Bibliography and Sources Photos and maps credits 30 30 30 32 32 34 35 36 36 37 37 39 40 40 40 41 42 43 46 46 49 50 53 59
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
Introduction
The
Syrian
civil
war
is
more
than
two
years
old.
In
April,
according
to
the
AFP
(4
April
2013)
more
than
60.000
had
died
(until
November
2012),
while
1.2
million
had
fled
to
neighbouring
countries
and
4
million
were
internally
displaced.
On
13
June
2013,
the
UN
estimated
that
at
least
93.000
people
had
died
so
far
during
the
conflict
(BBC
News,
13
June).
On
17
June,
1.64
million
people
were
refugees
in
other
countries,
according
to
UNHCR
ongoing
estimates
and
Syria
counted
4.25
million
Internally
Displaced
Persons
(IDPs)
according
to
USAID
and
the
Internal
Displacement
Monitoring
Center).
The
Syrian
war
is
a
challenging
problem
for
strategic
foresight
and
warning
because,
besides
the
humanitarian
disaster,
the
risks
to
regional
and
global
peace
and
stability
continuously
increase,
because
the
conflict
is
redrawing
the
strategic
outlook
of
the
region
while
participating
into
the
global
paradigm
shift,
and,
finally,
because
the
fog
of
war
makes
our
anticipatory
task
more
difficult
and
complex.
We
are
facing
three
related
sets
of
problems.
First,
we
must
deal
with
the
war
itself,
where
three,
four
or
five
types
of
Syrian
actors
and
their
international
backers
or
even
more
according
to
typologies,
as
we
shall
discuss
below
and
not
two,
fight
for
power.
Second,
we
must
prepare
for
the
following
peace
while,
third,
evaluating
and
considering
the
still
being
redesigned
strategic
environment.
The
specific
characteristics
of
the
peace
to
come
and
of
the
future
strategic
environment
will
depend
upon
the
length
of
the
war,
how
it
is
waged
and
how
it
ends.
The
peace
should
be
prepared
to
be
made
constructive,
positive,
and
lasting,
and
the
strategic
environment
conducive
to
interests,
knowing
that
interests
will
vary
according
to
actors,
each
trying
to
influence
the
overall
situation
to
achieve
its
goals
at
best.
Getting
ready
for
the
second
period
and
succeeding
there
starts
with
actions
taken
during
the
war
and
with
the
fate
of
the
war
itself,
according
to
three
main
scenarios
and
their
sub-scenarios
(eleven
in
total).
As
those
scenarios
are
grounded
in
the
current
state
of
play,
we
shall
first
present
the
state
of
play,
focusing
on
actors
fighting
in
Syria
before
to
move
to
the
scenarios.
To
be
complete,
we
would
then
need
to
present
the
international
state
of
play
and
to
revise
accordingly
the
scenarios.
This
is
planned
for
a
forthcoming
volume.
The
scenarios
would
need
to
be
regularly
revised
to
include
what
is
happening
on
the
ground.
Methodologically,
on-going
monitoring
of
the
situation
and
related
updating
of
scenarios
may
be
the
only
way
forward
to
deal
with
the
fog
of
war.
Here,
as
the
content
of
this
volume
has
been
initially
written
under
the
form
of
posts
published
on
the
web
on
www.redanalysis.org
between
Mid
April
and
July
2013
also
as
a
way
to
explore
how
to
deal
with
foresight
and
warning
under
the
fog
of
war
-
crucial
updates
to
the
state
of
play
are
inserted
in
grey
boxes.
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
State of Play
Understanding the current state of play and the actors
Before
to
present
the
actors,
it
is
necessary
to
make
two
preliminary
remarks.
1- Interestingly,
in
many
analyses
and
reports
on
the
war
in
Syria,
one
finds
mention
of
only
two
or
three
groups
of
actors:
the
regime
of
Bashar
al-Assad
and
the
insurgency,
to
which
are
sometimes
added
the
Kurds
in
Syria,
who
initially
sat
in
an
almost
neutral
position.
Save
for
a
few
more
detailed
studies,
which
show
how
much
more
complex
the
situation
is,
the
insurgency
tends
to
be
taken
either
as
a
broad
umbrella
label,
or,
more
worryingly,
as
a
monolithic
bloc.
A
few
interacting
factors
are
probably
at
work
here
to
explain
this
approach:
We
are
faced
with
cognitive
biases,
or
more
specifically
with
the
problem
of
enduring
cognitive
models
in
the
face
of
new
evidence,
when
the
initial
model
was
created
early
and
with
very
few
available
evidence
(Anderson,
Lepper,
and
Ross,
1980).
The
tendency
of
our
human
brain
to
also
overestimate
intentional
centralized
direction
and
planning
(Heuer,
chapter
11,
bias
2)
is
also
probably
at
play.
The
difficulty
to
get
information
on
the
ground
makes
it
even
more
complex
to
obtain
reliable
evidences
that
would
ease
our
understanding
of
the
situation
on
the
battlefield.
We
should
nevertheless
underline,
as
noted
in
a
recent
EAworldview
article,
that
the
civil
war
in
Syria
is
redefining
how
we
get
to
know
what
is
happening
in
the
case
of
war,
and
it
is
thanks
to
the
dedication
of
many,
to
a
real
crowdsourcing
effort,
and
to
the
web
and
communication
technologies
that
knowledge
of
the
situation
emerges.
Compare,
for
example,
with
our
blindness
in
past
situations
such
as
Cambodia.
However,
this
also
casts
everyone
in
the
role
of
collector
of
information
and
analyst
(intelligence
and
scientific
research
roles),
for
which
s/he
has
not
been
trained
and
that
must
be
learned
by
trial
and
errors.
Most
probably,
observers
and
analysts
need
to
face
conscious
and
unconscious
deception
and
manipulation
by
fighting
actors
on
the
ground.
Each
group
of
fighters
has
an
aim,
as
well
as
its
own
unconscious
biases
and
partial
vision
and
understanding
of
the
situation.
The
story
of
each
group,
of
each
battle,
be
it
told
through
written
or
video
means
or
through
interviews
will
reflect
specific
perceptions
and
goals,
which
must
also
be
considered.
The
difficulty
is
very
well
underlined
in
the
introductory
paragraphs
of
a
recent
article
by
Matthew
Barber
on
the
excellent
Syria
Comment
of
Joshua
Landis
when
he
uses
the
new
Syria
Video
facility
to
analyse
The
Raqqa
Story:
Rebel
Structure,
Planning,
and
Possible
War
Crimes.
As
a
result,
analysts
are
also
actors
in
the
Syrian
war.
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
Furthermore, most of the time, the maps available in open source, however impressive the amount of details found on them, furthermore regularly updated (as the Wikipedia map shown here which describes the situation in Syria as of 23 March 2013) only communicate part of the picture and could lead to partial conclusions.
They are nevertheless not only informative (and incredibly so most often) but also useful, as long as the reality of the situation is not forgotten, and one could build upon them to include the various broad types of fighting opposition.
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
2- Following Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi in his Jihad in Syria, and Phillip Smith, a central idea should be kept in mind regarding the Syrian civil war and generally most civil wars: the situation is fluid, changing and much more complex to describe than any categorization could allow. The Syrian battlefield involves more than 1000 factions and groups (Smith), some more powerful than others. It would seem we are at this stage when the length of the war has created enough havoc and chaos to allow every willing clan to create its own localised guerrilla group (Lund, 2013: 10), whilst the dynamics of the Syrian insurgency has not or not yet or not completely allowed a few groups to take real pre-eminence. Thus, all classifications should be taken with the utmost carefulness and what is true one day may well change the next. Alliances and participation in one group or another must also be considered as temporary. Those warring dynamics, yet, need to be observed and understood, because it is finally on the battleground that the destiny of Syria is being played out, while the interactions between international actors and this battleground progressively and incrementally impact the region and shape potential futures. Keeping in mind the complex and fluid character of the situation in Syria we shall now present the current state of play and the various categories of actors fighting in and over Syria, namely the pro- Assad groups, the moderate opposition forces and the Muslim Brotherhood related groups, the Kurds in Syria, the Islamist groups fighting for an Islamist state in Syria, and, finally, the groups linked to a global Jihadi Front. Scenarios for the future follow from this assessment. The scenarios will evolve, notably in terms of likelihood, from changes on the battleground and from interactions between all actors.
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
24
May
2013
-
Bashar
al-Assad
accepts
to
be
in
Geneva
2
(e.g.
Matthew
Weaver
and
agencies,
The
Guardian)
April
-
May
2013:
The
Battle
of
Al
Qusayr
(Wikipedia
article)
see
also,
for
example,
Jamie
Dettmer,
Ferocious
Battle
Underway
Over
Syrian
Border
City
29
May
2013,
VOANews.
Evaluating Pro-Al-Assad regime Forces Syrian Forces The pro-Assad Syrian fighting groups are composed of the regular Army and the Republican Guards, as well as pro-Assad militias (both Alawite and composite Sunni, Christian, Druze), all backed up by the Security Forces and the Police Force. All Alawites should not be considered as supporting the Assad regime, as shows the conference organised in Cairo on 23 March 2013 by Alawites promoting a democratic alternative (Reuters). The details below are summarized from the excellent report by Joseph Holliday, The Assad Regime: from Counterinsurgency to Civil War (March 2013 for the ISW). Regular Army and Republican Guards According to Holliday, Al-Assad has a policy of only electively deploying [t]his loyal core of military supporters. As a result a working estimate of 65,000 to 75,000 loyal, deployable Syrian regime troops emerges out of the Syrian Armed Forces, a basis that includes over 300,000 troops (including Air Force and Air defence personnel) (p.27). From this figure should be removed casualties, estimated by Holliday at 7620 killed and 30500 wounded by end of December 2012 (see table p.28), which represents approximately half of the regime estimated deployed troops, partially or completely Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
compensated by recruitment (p.29). As underlined by Holliday and the International Crisis Group, those men are however a hard-core nucleus of regime supporters(p.29). A decentralization of command and control, allowing for flexibility and initiative by low- and mid-level officers, according to local conditions, was implemented during the Summer 2012 (Ibid). Security Forces: The Mukhabarat (For a more detailed and clear explanation, read Holliday, Appendix 3) They are constituted of four intelligence services, whose primary mission was to monitor and intervene aggressively against potential domestic threats to the regime (Campbell, 2009). (p.54) However, they are now acting more like militias than like intelligence services (p.30). In addition, each operates its own prisons. Each service is present throughout the whole territory with a branch in each province. Using an interview he realized, Holliday writes that one former regime insider suggested it [The Mukhabarat] could be as large as 200,000 security officers and personnel, but this figure could include administrative personnel and informants and cannot be verified (p. 55), and, most probably, not all of them are fighters. (p.30). Militias or paramilitary forces
Popular
Committees,
or
Lijan
shabiya
becoming
the
National
defense
Forces,
or
Quwat
ad-
Difaa
al-Watani:
Minority
populations
who
have
armed
themselves
to
protect
their
towns
and
neighborhoods
from
anti-government
fighters
(p.16).
They
started
being
trained
and
formalized
as
The
National
defense
Forces,
or
Quwat
ad-Difaa
al-Watani,
in
early
2013,
with
Irans
support
(p.31).
The
Peoples
Army
or
Jaysh
al-Shabi:
Institutional
militias
have
existed
in
Syria
since
the
early
1980s
(then
named
munazzamat
shabiya
before
it
became
Jaysh
al-Shabi
in
the
mid-1980s)
(p.16).
The
Peoples
Army
is
composed
of
the
best
and
most
trustworthy
fighters
found
in
the
previous
two
groups.
It
has
been
trained
and
supported
by
Irans
Islamic
Revolutionary
Guard
Corps-Qods
Force
(IRCG-QF)
and
Lebanese
Hezbollah
(p.
30).
It
was
estimated
to
include
100.000
fighters
at
the
end
of
2011
(Holliday
using
van
Dam,
2011,
and
IISS
Military
balance
2011).
However,
Holliday
also
mentions
that
Iranian
Commander
Mohammed
Ali
Jafari
referred
to
50.000
popular
forces
in
September
2012
(p.
30).
As
underlined
by
Holliday,
fear,
reprisals,
massacres
and
atrocities
of
minorities
at
the
hand
of
extremists
may
only
increase
the
number
of
people
joining
the
various
militias.
Irans
action
with
the
militias
would
support
Smyths
point
(2013),
according
to
which
Iran
is
also
preparing
for
a
post
al-Assad
situation
by
creating
sub-networks
within
the
Syrian
Shia
community,
as
Helene
Lavoix
A
Red
(team)
Analysis
Report
July
2013
well as by supporting other (Sunni) militiamen. Holliday suggested a similar Iranian role in a post al- Assad Syria (p.32). Foreign Forces To the Syrian forces must be added foreign groups such as the Lebanese Hezbollah, groups coming from Iraq with Iranian support such the Mahdi Army (Muqtada al-Sadrs Liwa al-Yom al- Mauwud), Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Kataib Hizbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Quds Force (Ammar Abdulhamid, 2013; Smyth, 2013). The Hezbollah At the end of May 2013, the Hezbollah fighters in Syria have been estimated to reach between 3000 to 4000 troops by the French foreign minister and 7000 troops according to General Idriss (Hezbollah fighters invading Syria rebel chief, BBC News, 30 May 2013). Meanwhile, the leader of the Lebanese Forces (LF) party, Samir Geagea, estimates that the overall number of Hezbollah fighters does not exceed 5000 soldiers, as reported by Elie Hajj (Rethinking Hezbollahs Role in Syria, 18 June 2013, Al-Monitor Lebanon Pulse). According to IRIB World Service (Iran English Radio), that would be using a NATO report (title and link not mentioned), the Lebanese resistance group maintains a 65,000-strong army, which is difficult to confront. (NATO concerned over Hezbollahs might, 13 January 2013, IRIB). Those fighters constitute a well-trained and serious force. As underlined by Nasser Chararah (Hezbollahs Youth Strategy, 18 June, 2013, Al-Monitor Lebanon Pulse), Hezbollah had gone beyond being a huge militia, becoming a large military and professional force that follows a creative organizational and combat approach. This approach combines organizational conduct subjected to tight control and communications, and elite forces with a rich experience in the various types of guerilla fighting. The most prominent characteristic of this force is that a high percentage of its ranks consist of youth with specialized degrees, making it an educated army. Iranian forces As we saw previously, Irans Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force (IRCG-QF) have been training the Peoples Forces since 2011 and most probably used as advisers. Mid-June 2013, according to Robert Fisk, Iran would have decided to send a first contingent of 4,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guards to Syria to support President Bashar al-Assads forces (Robert Fisk, 16 June 2013, The Independent on Sunday).
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
Other groups (mainly Shia) Abu Fadl al-Abbas Brigade According to Mona Mahmood, and Martin Chulov, interviews with serving and former members of the Abu Fadl al-Abbas Brigade suggest that upwards of 10,000 volunteers all of them Shia Muslims, and many from outside Syria have joined their ranks in the past year alone (Syrian war widens Sunni-Shia schism as foreign jihadis join fight for shrines, 4 June 2013, The Guardian). The image on the right hand side was posted on their posted on their Facebook Page on 22 February 2013. Iraqs main Shia militias We find notably Asaib Ahl al-Haq (Islamic resistance in Iraq AAH / League of the Righteous) logo from their wesbite on the right hand side), Kataib Hezbollah and fighters from the Mahdi Army (Muqtada al- Sadrs Liwa al-Yom al-Mauwud). The number of fighters on the ground in Syria is unknown.
The National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NC) and the Supreme Joint Military Command Council (SJMCC or SMC)
Political overview An
umbrella
group
of
various
opposition
and
fighting
factions,
of
more
or
less
moderate
obedience,
the
National
Coalition
for
Syrian
Revolutionary
and
Opposition
Forces
(also
translated
as
National
Coalition
for
the
Forces
of
the
Revolution
and
the
Syrian
Opposition
Lund,
2013),
which
absorbed
the
previous
Syrian
National
Council
(Lund,
2013:
12),
was
formed
in
November
2012,
pushed
among
others
by
the
U.S.
and
Qatar.
It
was
initially
headed
by
Ahmed
Moadh
al-Khatib.
It
was
recognized
by
many
Western
nations
(see
list
on
Wikipedia),
by
Turkey,
by
the
Arab
States
of
the
Gulf
(Saudi
Arabia,
Qatar,
Bahrain,
United
Arab
Emirates,
Kuwait
and
Oman),
as
the
legitimate
representative
of
the
Syrian
people.
The
Arab
League
(except
for
Algeria,
Iraq
and
Lebanon)
recognised
the
Coalition
as
their
legitimate
representative
and
main
interlocutor.
This
recognition
was
reasserted
at
the
recent
Arab
League
summit
in
Doha
on
26
March
2013
(The
Guardian).
Helene
Lavoix
A
Red
(team)
Analysis
Report
July
2013
Since then, the united face of the Syrian moderate opposition as well as its moderation has been questioned notably by the election of Ghassam Hitto as Prime Minister of the interim opposition government, recommended by Mustafa Sabbagh, Secretary General of the Coalition, and supported by the Muslin Brotherhood and Qatar. As a result the president Al-Khatib resigned, confirming he was stepping down on 21 April 2013 (Al Arabyia and AFP), while some leaders in the opposition voiced their disapproval, including in the Free Syrian Army (FSA), refusing to recognize Hitto (e.g. AFP 24 March 2013). The SNC created the Supreme Joint Military Command Council (SJMCC or SMC) with Brigadier General Salim Idriss elected as Chief of Staff. The SMC is meant to integrate and lead the FSA and is organised according to five fronts (Eastern Front: Raqqa-Deir Ezzor and Al Hassakah - Northern Front: Aleppo and Idlib - Central Front: Homs-Rastan - Western Front: Hama-Latakia-Tartus - Southern Front: Damascus-Dara-Suwayda).
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
A detailed report by the Institute for the Study of Wars Syria Analyst Elizabeth OBagy on this endeavour may be found here, but must be read in the light of the debate between Debeuf and Lund on the FSA. The NC and SMC are those who receive Western aid, which is, officially, non-lethal, although, as monitored through crowdsourcing and explained in Chivers and Schmitt article for the New York Times (24 March 2013), military aid from the C.I.A. (mainly a consultative role) Arab governments and Turkey has found its way into Syria since early 2012. Meanwhile military training, on a small scale, led by the US, but involves[ing] British and French instructors would be provided in Jordan (Borger and Hopkins, 8 March 2013, The Guardian). It is thus crucial for the NC and the SMC to present a united front to the world, to reassure regarding their capacity to act and harness various groups and to reassert their moderation, because it is only under those conditions that they will continue to receive support or even increase its amount and change its nature. The fear from potential backers is that aid and weapons provided spread throughout groups and not only fuel the Syrian conflict but also favour regional spill-over, while also potentially finding their way back into Western countries, favouring violence in an environment made more volatile by the crisis. The meeting of the Friends of Syria group in Istanbul on 20 and 21 April 2013 exemplifies those interactions. There, US Secretary of State John Kerry announced that a new non-lethal package to the SMC of up to USD 130 million would be added to the 117 million already given (AP, 20 April 2013). France and Great Britain push for changing the EU arm embargo on Syria; Germany is more reserved but announced it would accept it (Spencer, 21 April 2013, The Telegraph, EUbusiness, 22 April 2013), while The Netherlands would be more reserved (AP, 20 April) and Scandinavian countries would oppose it (EUbusiness, 22 April). Both France and the UK have let believe that they could decide to move forward even without a European agreement (Traynor, 14 March 2013, The Guardian). The EU also decided to ease its oil embargo on Syria to support the NC (EUbusiness, 22 April).
The
EU
Eases
Ban
on
Arming
Syrian
Rebels
VOA
,
28
May
2013,
But
the
NC
shows
a
disappointing
inability
to
unite
and
include
New
member
read
Matthew
Barber
for
Syria
Comments,
27
May
2013:
Brotherhood
Figures
Block
Yaqoubis
Appointment,
Post-Confirmation
Dettmer,
Ferocious
Battle
Underway
Over
Syrian
Border
City
29
May
2013,
VOANews.
April - May 2013: The Battle of Al Qusayr (Wikipedia article) see also, for example, Jamie
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
UPDATE 8 JULY 2013 The Egyptian revolution of 30 June 2013 with the ousting of President Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood affiliates, the refusal by the Muslim Brotherhood to join the new coalition and its call to fight had immediate implications for the SNC in Syria. Indeed the SNC was meeting in Istanbul to elect a new President. After the usual discussions and delays the Egyptian defeat of the Muslim Brotherhood most probably contributed, along other factors specific to Syria, to see the Saudi backed Ahmad Jarba elected, over the Qatar backed Mustafa Sabbagh, knowing that Qatar is a supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood. However, the Brotherhood representative, Farouq Tayfour, was elected one of two vice-presidents of the Syrian National Coalition in a sign the group still retains influence in Syrian opposition politics. (Erika Solomon, Khaled Yacoub Oweis, Reuters, 6 July 2013). See also
Jarba
has
to
inspire
Syrian
opposition
Gulf
News,
July
7,
2013
Khaled
Yacoub
Oweis,
Syrian
opposition
head
expects
advanced
weapons,
8
July
2013,
Reuters.
How many fighters belong to the SMC? Moderates or all opposition forces? This is a crucial question, however a very difficult one. If we use David Ignatius estimates for the Washington Post, we read that Idriss and his Free Syrian Army command about 50,000 more fighters, rebel sources say (Ignatius, 3 April 2013). Lund (4 April 2013), in his comment on Ignatius article for Syria Comment, questions this estimates, considering the complexity and fluidity of the situation on the ground. OBagy, in her detailed report on the FSA does not include a global estimate. Lund in his article on the FSA (16 March 2013) underlines that If all the factions which have declared in favor of Idriss were added up, theyd count at least 50,000 men, perhaps many more. However, as he stresses, those groups include some that belong too to other nexus, such as Suqour el-Sham that is part of the Syria Liberation Front (SLF) also known as the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front (SILF). Thus, if we are looking at the number of fighters who are moderate, then one should substract from the 50.000 all those men who fight first for other groups, and thus are only very loosely affiliated with the SMC. This is a crucial question, however a very difficult one. If we use David Ignatius estimates for the Washington Post, we read that Idriss and his Free Syrian Army command about 50,000 more fighters, Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
rebel sources say (Ignatius, 3 April 2013). Lund (4 April 2013), in his comment on Ignatius article for Syria Comment, questions this estimates, considering the complexity and fluidity of the situation on the ground. OBagy, in her detailed report on the FSA does not include a global estimate. Lund in his article on the FSA (16 March 2013) underlines that If all the factions which have declared in favor of Idriss were added up, theyd count at least 50,000 men, perhaps many more. However, as he stresses, those groups include some that belong too to other nexus, such as Suqour el-Sham that is part of the Syria Liberation Front (SLF) also known as the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front (SILF). Thus, if we are looking at the number of fighters who are moderate, then one should substract from the 50.000 all those men who fight first for other groups, and thus are only very loosely affiliated with the SMC. Keeping this in mind, the International Center for the Study of Radicalisation (ICRS) gives the figure of 60,000 men as the most conservative estimate for the current [April 2013] size of rebel forces in his Insight: European Foreign Fighters in Syria. At the opposite end of the spectrum, one finds an AFP article (13 April 2013) emphasizing that experts say the Free Syrian Army comprises some 140,000 fighters, but without mention of any source. We should also consider all those small groups that are mainly local (see here), as it is not clear from given estimates if they are counted or not. What happened to the defectors? When trying to find estimates for the FSA and the SMC, counting forces seems to have proceeded according to two stages. At the beginning of the war, during 2011 and part of 2012, observers and students of the Syrian war were focusing on defectors from the Syrian Army, who led the creation of the Free Syrian Army on 23 September 2011, under the leadership of Colonel Reyad Mousa Al-Asad. Defectors, both soldiers and officers, were meant to join the FSA, which would constitute the core of the new security forces after the fall of the Al-Assad regime. However, as underlined by OBagy (Ibid: 10-11), using a New York Times article (Liam Stack, 27 October 2011), one of the many problems the FSA had to face was that the command group led by Reyad Mousa Al-Asad defecting officers were kept in an officers camp in Turkey that was located far away from the Syrian battlefield. This led to a disconnect between fighting troops and command. Meanwhile, most probably, many soldiers and officers defecting must have joined the forces on the ground. In the same New York Times article, Colonel Al-Asad would not specify the number of fighters, saying only that it was more than 10,000, and he was unwilling to disclose the number of battalions, claiming that the group had 18 announced battalions and an unspecified number of secret ones. None of his claims could be independently verified. Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
This figure of 10,000 would correspond to the estimated number of defectors given by an American official on 26 October 2011 (Nada Bakri, Defectors Claim Attack That Killed Syria Soldiers, NYT) and by sources (Western Intelligence agencies?) in a Haaretz article by Avi Issacharoff and Amos Harel on 21 December 2011. However, by December 2011, Colonel Al-Asad claimed that the FSA now counted 20,000 fighters (Safak Timur, AFP, Dec 1, 2011). The uncertainty regarding numbers is well summarized by a 2 December 2011 AlJazeera article: The group is now believed to number between 1,000 and 25,000 divided over 22 battalions spread across the country. Then, observers stopped focusing on defectors and tried to give estimates for the troops fighting more or less loosely under the SMC, the FSA or as opposition forces. Defectors, whatever their number, most probably joined not only the FSA or the SMC according to the time of defection, but also mobilizing or fighting groups according to their family, geographical and religious allegiances and to the fate of the overall force. The less the structuring command and control center has to offer (including in material terms, such as weapons, logistics etc.), the less it can show its power and strength, the more likely fighters will join or rather give a stronger allegiance to other factions. For example, as reported by Mona Mahmood and Ian Black for the Guardian (8 May 2013), FSA troops have increasingly defected to Al-Nusra during the first part of 2013 (note that defections to salafi-jihadis may be both real and hyped as bargaining chip to obtain more from external support).
The Kurds
The
Kurds
in
Syria
have
their
own
agenda,
which
will
determine
their
actions.
As
the
other
Kurdish
communities
in
the
region,
their
priority
is
to
create
a
semi-autonomous
Kurdistan
where
they
live,
notably
in
the
NorthEast
of
Syria.
Kurdish
enclaves
in
Syria
can
also
be
found
around
Jarabulus
North
and
Afrin
Northwest,
North
of
Aleppo
(Tejel,
2009:
xiii).
As
analyzed
by
Spyer,
their
recent
history
tells
the
Kurds
in
Syria
that
mastering
their
own
destiny
is
the
only
way
to
live
decently
and
according
to
their
own
way
of
life,
thus
benefiting
for
once
from
the
bounty
of
their
land,
in
terms
of
oil
and
crops
(Spyer,
March
9
2013).
The
Syrian
Kurds
objective
was
again
reasserted
by
Sipan
Hamo,
commander-in-chief
of
the
Peoples
Protection
Committees
or
Peoples
Defense
Units
(YPG
-
the
armed
wing
of
the
Kurdish
Democratic
Union
Party
(PYD),
the
main
Kurdish
political
force
in
Syria,
see
below),
in
a
Helene
Lavoix
A
Red
(team)
Analysis
Report
July
2013
statement on 4 April 2013: We will not bargain with any side at the expense of the Kurdish people. (van Wilgenburg, April 5 2013, AlMonitor). The Syrian Kurds have already achieved an important part of their goal: they are largely the de facto main authority in regions of Kurdish settlement, notably in many cities along the northern border (see Wikipedia map below updated 12 July 2013 yellow dots for Kurd-controlled cities note that the map shows the progress the pro-Assad groups).
At the beginning of the Syrian civil war, the Kurds adopted a neutral position and, starting from mid- July 2012, Assad forces began withdrawing from Kurd territories, abandoning many cities to the PYD: In total, by the end of the month, the Assad regime had withdrawn from fourteen Kurdish cities, Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
including the major towns of al-Maabde, Ayn al-Arab, Ras al-Ayn, Dirbasiyeh, as well as the Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyeh districts of the city of Aleppo. Tanir, van Wilgenburg & Hossino, 2012: 11). Hasakah and Qamishly, however, as documented by Spyer in the case of Qamishly, remain largely under control of the Assad regime (Spyer, 9 March 2013). Spyer underlines that we are there seeing the usual strategy of the Assad regime, operative throughout the country: Assads forces have conceded smaller towns and rural areas, while pushing forces into cities, like Qamishli, and holding them. The aim of the Kurds in Syria is now to make sure they will finalize and consolidate their authority and not lose what they have accomplished because of internecine struggles either within Syria or linked to regional Kurdish issues (see mapping of the actors below click for a larger image), or through the incursions of other Syrian forces opposing their authorities, their values and thus not guaranteeing their right to a decent life. The PYD is the main Kurdish political force in Syria and is linked to the Turkish Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) through the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK) (Tanir et al.: 9). Besides smaller independent Kurdish groups in Syria, its main opponent is an alliance of four political parties in Syria, funded by the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), the latter being led by Massoud Barzani, who is also the President of the Kurdistan Regional Government of Iraq (KRG) (van Wilgenburg, April 4 2013, AlMonitor). The PYD is, however, much stronger than its opponents, thanks notably to its armed wing, the YPG. Coercive forces are a crucial component of any political authority, whose strength and power depend upon the legitimate monopoly of violence and the ability to extract resources to accomplish its missions (see for further detailed explanations regarding political rule the Chronicles of Everstate). The YPG, Peoples Protection Committee, counts between 10000 (interview of Kurdish leader Salih Muslim for the Frankfurter Rundschau, 1 December 2012) and 15000 fighters (Strategiewechsel der FSA und der islamistischen Krfte: Krieg gegen Kurden - no source quoted - 27 May 2013, Die Kurden), according to Wikipedia. The KPD, trying to unite parties opposed to the PYD, formed in October 2011 the Kurdish National Council KNC, a political alliance of 15 groups including Kurdish political parties, youth groups, and independent figures, allegedly with the benediction of Turkey (Tanir et al.: 8-9, 19). It was however unable to assert an armed force on the ground, the KPD peshmergas and the Kurdish Syrian refugees they trained remaining in Iraq (Ibid).
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
The fear to see Kurdish infighting derail their overarching aim, led to the Erbil Agreement signed on 11 July 2012 between the PYD, the Peoples Council of West-Kurdistan (PCWK) (a previous PYD- sponsored failed attempt at uniting Kurdish Syrian groups) and the KNC, with the strong support of Barzani (Tanir et al.: 8-10, 19). Through this accord, the PYD and the KNC created the Supreme Kurdish Council (SKC), where they accept to jointly govern the Kurdish areas of Syria (Tanir et al.: 8- 10, 19). If each party has five seats within the SKC, the PYD remains the leader through, again, its armed wing, and through alliances with left-leaning members of the KNC (van Wilgenburg, April 4 2013). Yet, some tensions linger and minor clashes between Kurds sometimes erupt, as in March 2013 (van Wilgenburg, April 4 2013). The constitution of a de facto Kurd authority on the ground under SKC leadership with its YPG force was most probably operative in the decision by the Turkish Erdogan government to start peace talks in October 2012 with the PKK and their leader Occalan. A PKK friendly zone at Turkeys backdoor would have indeed been potentially threatening, while escalating fighting would have been incompatible with the new regional role that Turkey seeks to achieve. The Turkish-Kurdish peace talks, if fraught Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
with specific Turkish domestic difficulties, are progressing favourably to date (Tulin Daloglu, 3 April 2013, AlMonitor). Meanwhile, this changed configuration favoured, on the Syrian battlefield, tactical cooperation between groups belonging to the FSA nexus and Kurds, whilst clashes beyond the Aleppo region started taking place between pro-Assad groups and Kurds (Natali, January 31 2013; van Wilgenburg, April 5 2013, AlMonitor; Hudson, April 18 2013, reuters). The Kurdish struggle against Global Jihadi groups in Syria such as Jabhat al-Nusra or groups supporting the creation of an Islamist state in Syria (forthcoming post) continues, as the objectives of those groups are incompatible with a Syrian Kurdistan (Natali, January 31 2013; Spyer, March 9 2013). Considering the FSAs need to show a moderate, united and efficient face to increase foreign support (see previous post), we have here another factor for de facto cooperation between Kurdish forces and groups linked to the FSA nexus in the current strategic conditions. The Iranian perception and consequent actions regarding the ongoing peace talks in Turkey is an element that should not be forgotten: Iran is a full player as it supports the Assad regime, as Kurds are settled on part of its territory and it is a major actor in the region. If, as suggested by Sinkaya (March 20 2013, AlMonitor), Iran fears that PKK armed forces, freed from actions in Turkey, contribute to renew the Kurdish struggle on their own territory, then Irans interest would be to see those forces joining with Syrian Kurds to save the Syrian Kurdistan, assuming the YPG accept them. This might imply that Iran would support further offensive by the Assad regime in zones under SKC control. Integrating peacefully and fully future ex-PKK forces within Turkey would be a way to assuage Irans fear and to avoid further escalation for this specific issue. If the strategic environment is changing and is accordingly included into the actors decisions, it does not mean that alliances are becoming fixed. The tactical and local situations are also crucial, while the overall conditions remain fluid. As Tejel emphasises regarding the Syrian battlefield, We cannot state that they are enemies or allies. It depends on the context, the moment, and local relations. In other words, if cooperation between YPG with the FSA is now a reality, it does not necessarily mean that we are witnessing a complete rupture. Maybe or maybe not (van Wilgenburg, April 5 2013).
The SLF would have declared war on The Kurds: a statement signed by no less than twenty-
one armed groups declared Kurdish defense units, YPG, are traitors because they are against our Jihad.The goal, according to the statement, is a pending the completion of comprehensive cleansing process, liberation from PKK and Shabiha. The statement was published by the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front Syria Report, 27 May 2013 Insurgents Declare War on Syrian Kurds A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
Helene Lavoix
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
Nationalist Salafis want to create an Islamic Sharia state in Syria. Lund (2013: 14) quotes Abdulrahman Alhaj, an expert on Syrian Islamism he interviewed in January 2013: When it comes to the salafis, we have to separate between two things. There are publicly declared salafi groups who have an experience of [armed] salafi work outside Syria, and who have a systematic salafi thinking. These groups, the salafiya-jihadiya [salafi-jihadism], are not many, but they affect peoples thinking. The others are young, extremist people. They are Sunni Muslims who just follow this path because there is a lot of violence. Day after day, they come face to face with violence, so they adopt salafism, but they are not really part of the salafiya-jihadiya ideologically. Like Ahrar al-Sham: they are not part of the salafi-jihadi movement. There are of course real salafis among them, but mostly they are just extremist sunnis without a systematic salafi ideology. Its very different from Jabhat al-Nosra. Within those groups one finds two major alliances, who are attempting to unite factions. Syria Liberation Front (SLF) also known as the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front (SILF) factions (Jabhat Tahrir Souriya or Jabhat al-Tahrir al-Souriya al-Islamiya) It was created in September 2012 when some factions ended their associations with the FSA. The groups that are mentioned as belonging to the SLF are: two of Syria largest Islamist groups, Kataeb al-Farouq and Suqour al-Sham (Lund 2013: 16), Liwa al-Tawhid and Liwa al-Islam (Lund 3013: 27 using Noah Bonsey, Lund, 3 April 2013). According to Lund, most of the SLF factions are also now part of the Supreme Joint Military Command Council (Ibid: 13), despite their ideological outlook, which also underlines again the pragmatic feature of affiliations and the shifting and lose characteristic of alliances, as suggested previously. The SILF/SLF would count an estimated 37.000 fighters (Ignatius, 2 Avril 2013; see also Lunds related comment, 3 April 2013). Syrian Islamic Front (SIF) (Al-Jabha al-Islamiya al-Souriya) It was created in December 2012 under the leadership of the more powerful Ahrar al-Sham. It initially included 11 factions, covering most of the territory (see mapping above), which were, in January and February 2013, reduced to 7 through the merging of various groups (Lund, 2013: 25-27). Since April 2013, the SIF counts one new member, the Haqq Battalions Gathering (Tajammou Kataeb al-Haqq) (Lund, May 3 2013). Between 10.000 and 30.000 fighters could be part of the SIF (Lund, 2013: 23). Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
Talks between initial SIF groups and the SLF had taken place when the SLF was created, but failed for various reasons, from ideological to disagreements between groups. Lund (Ibid: 17-19) qualifies the SIF as an Islamist Third Way, strictly salafist but also pragmatic, able to discuss with the West, and to cooperate on the ground with the SMC or with salafi-jihadi groups, while also criticizing the latter, as shows the 4 May 2013 statement by Ahrar al-Sham on Jabhat al- Nosras recent declaration of allegiance to al-Qaidas Ayman al-Zawahiri. (Lund, 4 May 2013): It seeks to demonstrate a strict salafi identity, and makes no attempt to hide its opposition to secularism and democracy. but it also tries to highlight a streak of pragmatism and moderation, intended to reassure both syrians and foreign policymakers. In this way, it sets itself apart as an Islamist third way, different from both the most radical fringe of the uprising, and from its Western-backed islamist mainstream. (Lund, 2013: 17) However, the SIF aims at establishing a Sunni Islamist Theocracy, allowing only some modicum of consultation and political freedom within the bounds of sharia law (Ibid: 19). It has already started working towards this goal when, as described by Lund (Ibid: 25), it develops a humanitarian and non- military activity. It does not only fight but also plays the role of a real political authority, which strengthens both its mobilization power and its resource-base. Thus, overthrowing the regime of Bashar al-Assad is only a step towards achieving its objectives, and the Third Way may only last temporarily, assuming the SIF continues its current course, and finds access to sufficient and secure resources and fundings (for details on funding see Ibid: 27). For more details on the SIF and, among others, salafism in Syria, I highly recommend Lunds report. For an estimate of the overall fighters belonging to the Salafis-nationalists should be added the unknown number of fighters belonging to groups other than the SIF and the SLF.
The SLF would have declared war on The Kurds: a statement signed by no less than twenty-
one armed groups declared Kurdish defense units, YPG, are traitors because they are against our Jihad.The goal, according to the statement, is a pending the completion of comprehensive cleansing process, liberation from PKK and Shabiha. The statement was published by the Syrian Islamic Liberation Front Syria Report, 27 May 2013 Insurgents Declare War on Syrian Kurds
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
Aymenn
Jawad
Al-Tamimi
in
his
meticulous
analysis
of
the
relationships
between
JAN
and
ISIS
(see
below),
for
the
region
of
Raqqah
(24
June
2013
for
Jihadology),
following
common
demonstrations,
questions:
In
Raqqah
itself,
further
evidence
of
an
ISIS-JAN
unity
became
clear
in
the
counter-demonstrations
on
the
ground.
Here
is
one
such
video,
featuring
several
youths
holding
the
banners
of
Harakat
Ahrar
ash-Sham
al-Islamiya
(which,
to
recall,
was
the
main
group
of
battalions
responsible
for
the
rebel
takeover
of
Raqqah
in
March),
ISIS
and
the
general
flag
of
jihad.
The
recent
developments
should
also
debunk
the
false
dichotomy
posed
by
some
commentators
of
Salafist
nationalist
Syrian
Islamic
Front
[SIF]
groups
like
Harakat
Ahrar
ash-Sham
al-Islamiya
versus
transnational
jihadist
groups
(cf.
my
overview
of
statements
put
out
by
various
factions
on
Sheikh
Jowlanis
bayah
to
Sheikh
Aymenn
al-Zawahiri).
figures increasing or decreasing, and if they are increasing, which populations are mobilized? Until the more recent successful offensive of pro-Assad groups (Spyer, 3 May 2013), the salafis nationalists and the global jihadis tended to be most successful militarily, seizing important locations and infrastructure, while they mobilized effectively, somehow along the lines of a Peoples War (less the Maoist ideology). This, in turn, prompted progressively the beginning of a change of policy regarding the delivery and type of aid given to the moderate factions by their supporting external powers. It also potentially started to soften the position of Russia, concerned by the development of jihadi terrorism, thus allowing for improvement in diplomatic talks towards negotiations, as explained by Putin in an interview with German broadcaster ARD (Ria Novosti, 5 April 2013). ISIS (The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham) and JAN In mid-April, Jabhat al-Nosra, answering to al-Zawahiri and then to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, leader of Al Qaida in Iraq (ISI, Islamic State of Iraq) who had declared wanting to create the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS logo on the left handside) and as excellently summarized by Lund (4 May 2013) promised to follow every order from Zawahiri as long as this does not Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
contravene sharia law, while refusing merging with ISI or ISIS (see for full detailed analysis and translated documents, Barber, 14 April 2013). Jabhat al-Nosra thus asserts an Al Qaida in Syria, in a nationalist move that is not without recalling salafi-nationalist groups, and stresses its aim to establish an Islamist state in Syria, The Islamic State of al-Sham. Al-Sham stands for Bilad al-Sham, i.e. The Levant (todays Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Palestine, Israel, and potentially the Hatay Province of Turkey). The choice of words could potentially indicate a wish to revise borders, although such aim would need to be proven.
UPDATE 8 JULY 2013 Aymen Jawad Al Tamimi evaluates the relationships between JAN and ISIS, where they sometimes designate the same entity, but not always, through meticulous and thorough regional analyses:
Jabhat
al-Nusra
and
the
Islamic
State
of
Iraq
and
ash-Sham:
Deir
ez-Zor
and
the
wider
east
of
Syria;
Jabhat
al-Nusra
and
the
Islamic
State
of
Iraq
and
ash-Sham
in
Raqqah:
Demonstrations
and
Counter-Demonstrations;
Jabhat
al-Nusra
and
the
Islamic
State
of
Iraq
and
ash-Sham:
Deraa
Governorate.
Unfortunately,
no
estimates
of
forces
that
would
be
specific
to
ISIS,
according
to
cases
are
included.
It
might
be
very
difficult
if
not
impossible
to
evaluate
them.
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
This mapping starts exploring ways to look at sets of scenarios as a systemic and dynamic whole. The thickness of the arrow shows higher probability and shorter timeline: the thicker an arrow, the Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
more likely and the quicker a scenario would evolve in a specific direction; alternatively a dotted line shows lower probability and/or longer timeline. Probability and timeline will evolve according to events.
process is properly implemented, actionable early warning and monitoring systems should be planned and constructed from the start. The next five to ten years would remain a very delicate period with heightened risks of re-escalation towards war. Sub-scenario 1.1.2.: Back to civil war Jihadis advantage? The negotiations fail and Syria falls again into civil war, but with changed conditions: the failure will have a price for each actor involved, according to the reasons for and conditions surrounding the failure. The global-jihadi groups would most probably benefit most. Sub-scenario 1.2.: All but the Salafis The actors brought around the table are the NC and the SMC, the regime of Bashar al-Assad represented by a face-saving person for the regime and a person that would be acceptable to all other parties (assuming such a person exist) and the SKC. The Salafi-Nationalist groups (all or most of them), even those having linked to the SMC, would refuse to participate in the negotiations. Sub-scenario 1.2.1.: An unlikely very fragile external peace The negotiations succeed. The external peace that is brokered is even more fragile. The prospects for successfully implementing it would be greatly reduced. All the risks already present in the previous sub-scenario (1.1.1) would be heightened. With a level of power (resources, troops and actions) constant compared with sub-scenario 1.1.1., the likelihood of success would be inversely proportional to the policy and actions of the Salafi-Nationalist groups, ranging from only refusing to participate in the negotiations and settlement to actively denouncing and fighting them. To increase the likelihood of success, the level of power applied would have to be proportionally enhanced and the length of time during which this power would be necessary would have to be increased. In other words, more troops and more civilian personal, as well as more resources would have to be dedicated to Syria for longer. Sub-scenario 1.2.2.: Back to civil war Salafis advantage? The negotiations fail and Syria is dragged again into civil war. Scenario similar to 1.1.2 but with a very strong advantage for the Salafi groups, be they nationalist or jihadi. Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 1 What could enhance the likelihood to see such a scenario happening? What are the supporting facts Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
increasing the plausibility of scenario 1? The civil war in Syria drags on, with specific evolution and dynamics over the winter 2012/2013 favouring diplomatic talks between international powers (see end of last post); Fear by external actors to see further use and spread of chemical weapons, Heightened fear by external actors to see the Syrian conflict spilling over further, which was bound to happen considering its regional and global dimension, supported notably by the Al Qaeda nexus April statements, by the declarations of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah acknowledging his group fights besides the regime of Bashar al- Assad (Black and Roberts, The Guardian, 30 April 2013), by the 3 and 5 May Israeli attacks on Syria (e.g. interesting analysis by Ben Caspit, 5 May 2013, AlMonitor), then by the 11 May 2013 terror attack on the Turkish town of Reyhanli, (Daloglu, 12 May 2013 AlMonitor), the latter linking too to the refugees issue and its destabilizing dimension for neighbouring countries. Difficulty to implement rapidly, efficiently and with a high likelihood of success any other solution. Lack of clear support in the domestic constituencies of potentially intervening countries, notably in the U.S., for those solutions, and possible polarisation of opinions, considering multiple diasporas and humanitarian disaster. Cost of intervention for intervening countries, considering the widespread problem of public deficits and the solutions usually chosen to face this challenge (reduction of public expenses and privatization of the state). Leading to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Secretary of State John Kerry announcement that Russia and The U.S. had agreed to work towards convening an international conference to find a political solution to the conflict in Syria, and thus to the continuation of diplomatic work in this direction (BBC, 7 May 2013), as well as to the ongoing diplomatic exchanges between concerned partied. Increased violence and multiplication of attacks - to a point - would not be an indication that talks will finally fail to bring about peace negotiations, nor that peace negotiations are breaking down, as actors will seek the strongest bargaining position possible at the negotiation table and this position is obtained through fighting. Renewed battles should be seen as (a dramatic) part of the overall negotiation process. Which Syrian actors must participate? Considering the diversity of actors on the ground, this point is particularly delicate, crucial and will most probably lead to many discussions, declarations, bargains and twists, as the two declarations below let us expect. A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
Helene Lavoix
Moaz Al-Khatib, ex-President of the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NC) suggested We refuse any radical thinking but this does not mean we can exclude them, they are Syrians and they have the right to speak up, and we need to enter into a dialogue with them. They are Syrians and for me a Syrian is worth more than the whole world (Phil Sands, The National, May 9, 2013). It is most likely that an official participation by Salafi-Jihadi groups will be rejected by international powers as well as by part of the NC factions, however covert dialogue could take place between Syrian some actors. The question could also be asked for Salafi-Nationalist groups. The surprising declaration by Abdul Qader Saleh, commander of the Al-Tawhid Brigade, member of the Syrian Liberation Front to the Turkish news agency Cihan accusing Israel to have destroyed weapons that were about to be seized by the rebellion and not arms that were about to reach the Hezbollah, thus to side with Iran and the Hezbollah to support Assad (Ynet, 13 May 2013) could signal an early hardening of the SLF (which had been suggested as possible by Lund, 2013: 27). This declaration might in turn prepare the ground for refusing the potential negotiations or for building a stronger bargaining position.
although the states involved are very cautious not to cross the line (in terms of official statement and language) that would force them into war, as shows, for example, the two Israeli raids on Syria and the way they are reported (among others, see the US apology for confirming Israeli strikes - Jerusalem Post 19 May 2013) . The political part of this spill over is being continually enacted, reminding us of Von Clausewitz famous War is the mere continuation of politics by other means. Second, we would face a similar range of actions but between states and actors dubbed non-state actors, yet vying for state power). Those two forms of contagion are usually imagined or expected as occurring within the Middle East, lately enlarged to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This is however too narrow a view, as Russia reminded us on 17 May 2013 when it sent at least 12 warships to patrol waters near its naval base in Tartous, Syria. (Times of Israel, 17 May 2013) to underline the importance of its interest in Syria and in the region, as underlined, for example by Eldar (AlMonitor, 19 May 2013). The American debate over the type, value and wisdom of an American involvement in Syria is another obvious example of the way the Syrian conflict spills over beyond the region. Third, countries welcoming Syrian refugees (1,52 million people on 20 May 2013 UNHCR - see detailed map below) will face a risk of destabilization stemming from the massive influx of people in countries that were not prepared for them, and were already sometimes facing difficult situations. Furthermore, refugees may be linked to fighting units and carry on activities linked to the Syrian war in the host country, thus heightening the risk of seeing those countries dragged into the conflict. Those factors and resulting tensions are already at work, notably in Lebanon (e.g. Euronews 18 May 2013), Jordan (e.g. C. Phillips, The World Today, Volume 68, Number 8/9), Turkey (e.g. Ibid., Krohn, The Atlantic, 17 May 2013). A fourth, more unconventional, form of contagion must also be considered. As the crisis lengthens in Europe, European individuals attracted to Salafi-jihadi would increasingly travel to and from Syria (see ICSR Insight, April 2013), heightening not only the direct threat of terrorism within Europe (Europol TE-SAT 2013: 7, 20, 24) and possibly in the U.S. and Canada but also the spread of Salafi-jihadi cells. Considering the crisis and the fragilising policies of austerity and externalization i.e. privatization of the state (especially those concerning the legitimate monopoly of violence), actions by Salafi-jihadi cells could heighten the risk of polarization, for example by favouring further the rise and strengthening of already spreading right-wing extremist movements. Crisis-related unrest could be a favourable environment for violent actions from Salafi-jihadi cells, that would then feed into a more generalized political turmoil. The spread of Salafi-jihadi ideology in countries hit not only by the crisis but also by a lack of hope and vision as well as by denial whatever the hardship and dangers faced by citizens is not to discard. In this light, the novel vision promoted by the new Pope Francois 1st, warning against the cult of money and the dictatorship of an economy which is faceless and lacking any truly human goal (Squires, The Telegraph, 16 May 2013) might be considered as a potential counterweight. Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
Similar heightened risks would exist for any country where nationals have found their way to fight in Syria, as for example, Tunisia (Sgrena, IPS, 6 April 2013), and increase with the fragility of the domestic political situation. Until a real peace takes hold in Syria (and this is thus true too for scenarios 1.1.2. and 1.2.2., see previous post), it will be most necessary to use all anticipatory intelligence or strategic foresight and warning means, foreign policy instruments, and, ultimately, military intervention (which may also be seen as a de facto spill over of the conflict), to try preventing further spill over of the Syrian civil war, assuming this is still possible. In scenarios 1 and 2, the efficiency of the support provided to the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces will need to be intensely monitored, and aid lethal and non lethal, official and covert will have to be steered according to results and potential consequences. In scenario 1, this specific aid, as well as all support (see state of play, part I, II, III) given to specific parties should disappear once a peace agreement is signed. In scenario 2, all aid will need to be monitored in the framework of the types of involvement chosen by the various international actors. Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 2 What could enhance the likelihood to see such a scenario happening? Events happening currently in the MENA region and beyond as well as on the Syrian battlefield must also be read with this dimension in mind. The potential spoilers below must be seen as related and most of the time feeding into each other. It is finally impossible to find a solution that would be acceptable to all permanent members of the UN Security Council. Crucial international actors seek to extract too many advantages from other nations related or unrelated to the region and diplomatic talks fail. Events surrounding the Syrian issue, be it on the battlefield or internationally, finally derail the diplomatic talks by prompting the withdrawal of too many important (because of their involvement with and in Syria or because of their power) international actors. For example, the 15 May 2013 UN General Assembly adoption of the text condemning violence in Syria, demanding that all sides end hostilities was judged by both China and Russia as unhelpful, but it may also be read, as underlined by Nashashibi (AlArabyia, 20 May 2013) as an effort to stress the importance of a peaceful solution to the conflict, of effective representative interlocutors for a political transition, and thus of the necessity of an international conference. It is also possible that the terror attack in the Turkish town of Reyhanli is part of an effort to derail diplomatic talks (e.g. Seibert, DW, 14 May 2013). A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
Helene Lavoix
It is impossible to bring the regime of Bashar al-Assad to the negotiation table. Similarly, if it were impossible to find a person to represent the regime of Bashar al-Assad that would be acceptable to all parties, then, the international conference could not take place, or, if it were still happening, it would most probably only be a sham, i.e. all parties would not be represented or those accepting to sit at the negotiation table would not be representative of what is happening on the ground. A major surprise occurs that would change the international outlook on Syria and the war. The diplomatic talks could be terminated.
Evolutions for Scenario 2 Scenario 2 should lead either to Scenario 1 or to Scenario 3 (A real Victory in Syria, forthcoming). The main challenge we are facing here, as analysts, is to determine when one or the other will become likely or more likely. The timeline will depend upon what happens under the fog of war, knowing that the thicker the fog, the heightened the possibility for surprise. We shall thus have to constantly monitor the war situation, and, accordingly, revise and improve all possible scenarios. For example, a potential break up of Syria would then also have to be included as sub-scenario (for Scenario 1 and Scenario 3). Scenario 2 could also, theoretically, lead to a Scenario 4, the invasion and annexation of Syria by an external power. However, considering the current international norms and settings, such a scenario is most unlikely and may be put aside. Should those norms change, or should the current international tension and crises bring about severe upheavals, then the likelihood of scenario 4 would have to be revised and the scenario developed. We may note an unintended side effect stemming from the international ban on war for conquest. If it improved greatly peace and stability, it also tends to remove an incentive on domestic actors to stop civil war: the warring factions do not risk to see an external actor use the fragility brought about by civil war to annex their territory, thus they can continue fighting.
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
on counter-insurgency, and also theories and practice of Peoples war). Thus, achieving victory means that the victor has also succeeded in having an efficient monopoly of the means of violence (the winning fighting troops and the coercive apparatus within the population, ranging from mild to violent), as well as a way to extract surplus from the population in exchange for services (including waging the war). As a result, winning the war implies that the fundamental processes underlying functioning political authorities have been implemented and mastered. The change from war and emergency to peace must still be achieved, while the new political authorities must consolidate their legitimacy, and those are crucial challenges, hence the difficult first years, but the foundations for succeeding are there. How the stabilization from war to peace would be done, with which type of political authorities, and under which kind of regime, would vary with the victorious belligerent. The international impact would change accordingly, with, in turn, consequences on the Syrian domestic situation and the type of peace the victor would succeed in implementing. Scenario 3.1.: An Islamic al-Sham? Scenario If the victorious groups were Salafi-Jihadi, they would create a theocracy, a strict Sharia state. If we refer to Jabhat al-Nusras April declaration (Barber, 14 April 2013, Syria Comment), then they would seek to create the Islamic State of Al-Sham, i.e. a political entity covering the Levant. If we refer to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of Al-Qaida in Iraq, then their objective would be to create the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS) (Ibid). As explained by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi (14 May 2013) and by Lund (22 May 2013, Syria Comment), who also reviews other related analyses, we are currently under a thick fog of war as to what is happening within the Al-Qaida factions in Syria: we do not know exactly if there is strife between various groups, how important it is, and which side, if any, will win (see for an update, 8 July, p.27). Whatever the reality that will emerge, and for the sake of this scenario, thus assuming that the victorious groups are Salafi-jihadi, the current territorial Syria (with or without the Syrian Kurdistan, according to the way the war would be waged on that part of the territory and won or lost there) would most probably be seen as the heart from which the war to conquer the rest of Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
the Levant (with or without Iraq according to case) could be waged. The new Al Sham would thus be expansionist and carrying the Salafi-Jihadi aim that seek[s] to establish an islamic caliphate that would encompass the entire Umma, or Muslim community (OBagy, September 2012:17) through all means, from overt war to supporting terrorist networks and individual jihad abroad. The caliphate or Khilafa is explained in and defined with different terms according to authors, yet similarities remain, notably expansion: Dr. Reza Pankhurst The most famous exposition of the Islamic theory of State was by the scholar al-Mawardi, who claimed that the establishment of the Caliphate was an Islamic obligation agreed upon by the scholars. His treatise al-Ahkam al-Sultaniyya (the rules of governance) remains one of the major classical references for Islamic political theory. In it, he explains that the ruler is either elected by the peoples representatives or through being nominated by the previous Caliph. The Caliphs responsibilities include implementing the hudood (punishments explicitly proscribed in Islam for acts such as theft, rebellion, public acts of extra-marital intercourse), collecting and distributing the taxes according to the Sharia prescriptions, and to protect and expand the borders of the Islamic State. Dr. Reza Pankhurst, political scientist and historian, specializing in the Middle East and Islamic movements, Understanding Calls to a Caliphate, 22 August 2011, Foreign Policy Journal. Dr Usama Hasan Khilafa (caliphate) for Islamists is the idea that they are duty bound to establish Islamic states described by vague, theoretical, idealistic platitudes that would then be united in a global, pan-Islamic state or new caliphate. Quilliam Foundation researcher Dr Usama Hasan for BBC News, 24 May 2013 Raymond Ibrahim Both historically and doctrinally, the caliphates function is to wage jihad, whenever and wherever possible, to bring the infidel world under Islamic dominion and enforce sharia. In fact, most of what is today called the Muslim worldfrom Morocco to Pakistanwas conquered, bit by bit, by a caliphate that began in Arabia in 632. A jihad- waging, sharia-enforcing caliphate represents a permanent, existentialist enemynot a temporal foe that can be bought or pacified through diplomacy or concessions. Such a caliphate is precisely what Islamists around the world are feverishly seeking to establish. Raymond Ibrahim, associate director of the Middle East Forum, 8 March 2011, Gatestone Institute. Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
Despite the necessity for expansion, aggressive actions might also be delayed, or slowed, to allow first for consolidation at home. However, if the rivalry between Salafi-Jihadi groups were to re-appear after a victory on the Syrian territory, then the chance for consolidating peace at home would be reduced because of internecine struggle, following, in essence on those that would be taking place currently. In the meantime, the potential for aggressive jihadi actions would be enhanced, as all groups would want to assert their Jihadi credentials and use them to ideologically motivate fighters, while probably also alienating part of the population, which would again contribute to lower the odds to fully stabilize the situation domestically. The states directly threatened by an aggressive Al-Sham and other similar regional entities would have no other choice than to retaliate. The prospects for a regional and global conflagration would be heightened. Peace in Syria would have been short. Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 3.1. To date, the likelihood to see this scenario happening is summarized by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi (14 May 2013): In the midst of such chaos, I see it as unlikely that JAN [Jabhat al-Nusra] will either substantially advance its position or lose ground beyond likely strongholds in the north and east. While JAN may routinely be described as the most effective fighting force, it can be too easy to overstate the groups actual size and influence. To sum up, I see an equilibrium of disorder developing. Using Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimis article as well as Lunds (22 May 2013), we can come up with a few indicators that should be followed, besides following the course of the war in Syria: The state of tension, from disagreement to split within Al-Qaida groups operating in Syria and between all Salafi-Jihadi factions. The evolution of the situation in Iraq, notably of Al-Qaida. The degree of acceptance of strict sharia law within the Syrian population, as well as within the larger regional and global Sunni population. The existence of viable alternatives, both materially and spiritually, for the population, including the persistence of hope: if no other models are provided besides an Islamic state of Al Sham and a caliphate, if people are desperate, then they may well find progressively new meaning and survival in a Islamic Al Sham (read on this the beginning of Reza Pankhursts article (22 August 2011). The capability of the Salafi-Jihadi groups first as belligerents then as winning rulers for sustained domestic control and coercion, on the one hand, for co-optation and persuasion on the other. A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
Helene Lavoix
Scenario 3.2.: A Nationalist Islamic Syria? Scenario If the victorious groups are Sunni Islamist and Salafi-Nationalist factions, then they would implement an Islamic state in Syria. According to Lund, and assuming those groups follow the January 2013 SIFs official charter, they would establish a state guided by sharia law at all costs, while also making some gestures towards moderation and tolerance for minority groups, (p.16) or in their own terms they would build a civilized Islamic society in Syria, ruled by the law of God (p.19). They would be opposed to secularism and democracy (p.17) because Islamic Sharia cannot be put to a vote (p.20) however, elections could still be used as a system to appoint representatives and leaders as long as modalities and potential parties are bound by Shariia. Rather than adopting a confrontational position they would be eager to reach a modus vivendi with the West, as shows their willingness to open communication channels during the war. (p.18) On the path to victory, as they would have given as much attention to war as to building the real foundations for an Islamic society (the civilian movement, from which springs missionary, educational, humanitarian, media, political and [public] service [movements] (19), once in power their task towards stabilizing peace would be eased. They would seek to maintain, expand and deepen those already existing structures and processes. They would focus on Syria and its needs. Succeeding fully in building this type of peace in Syria would most probably be hardest and most challenging as far as non Sunni Islamist groups are concerned. How could the very different faith and ways of life be accommodated by a state abiding to Sharia ? Could they be successfully integrated, and how? Or would this lead to renewed civil war, to multiple exoduses, and in the case of the Kurds to a semi-autonomous or fully independent Kurdistan? Assuming that the best way to integrate those communities is not found, would this lead again to foreign involvement and, as a result to heightened possibilities for war? Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 3.2. The more pragmatic and more Syria-centric agenda of those groups, as well as the number of fighters (between 47000 and 67000 fighters if estimates (Lund, Ignatius, see State of Play) for the SIF and the SLF/SILF are added), and their structure, imply that this scenario is less unlikely than the previous one. Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
However, considering the military strength of the Pro-Assad groups, as well as the rising regionalization of the civil war, it is still far from being likely. Some indicators that could be followed as influencing the likelihood of this scenario: Continuing disunity and internecine struggle within the moderate opposition (NC) with impact on the capacity to garner support without and within and related consequence on military operations. Success or failure in the opening of communication channels with the West and more broadly internationally by such groups on the mode of what is done by the SIF, and in the ability to convince about their pragmatic, Syrian centric approach. Capacity of those groups to endeavour and succeed in providing the Syrian population with public services both according to the groups ideology and without creating any adverse reaction. Increasing regionalisation of the conflict and international wish to put an end to it. Change in the overall configuration of the external support.
Scenario 3.3.: A Secular Syria? This scenario (or rather a variation around this theme) would be meant to happen if the victorious group is the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NC) and its corresponding fighting arm, the Supreme Joint Military Command Council (SJMCC or SMC). This would first presuppose that the various groups affiliated with the SMC succeed in uniting their forces to fight, while the NC would find a widely accepted way to elect representatives and to function. Notably, this would imply that internecine struggles, as were for example displayed during the last week of May 2013 (e.g. Barber for Syria Comments, 27 May 2013), between more secular and moderate groups, on the one hand, and, on the other, the Muslim Brotherhood as well as their supports stop, and that whatever alliances were made with various factions hold and are honoured. The NC and the SMC would also need to find a way to manage the correct support from their allies, i.e. enough and in the right manner to have sufficient fire power to fight successfully and to deliver to the population they seek to mobilize and who are under their authority, yet without creating an adverse reaction among Nationalists who could accuse them to sell Syria to foreign interests. Considering the differences existing between the Muslin Brotherhood and other groups, we may imagine two possible sub-scenarios.
Helene Lavoix
July 2013
Scenario 3.3.1. A Muslim Brotherhoods Syria Scenario Assuming a NC with a Muslim Brotherhood strong leaning wins, and that it has achieved enough power over the fighting forces of the SMC, we would have a system that supports democratic elections and many political freedoms while espousing a vision for a Syrian state that implements Sunni Islamic frames of reference for its legislation. (OBagy, Jihad in Syria, Sept 2012 :17). Indeed as Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi notes, the Muslim Brotherhoods conception of applying Islamic law [is] through gradual actionstep by step, in order to facilitate understanding, studying, acceptance and submission (for Syria Comment, 20 March 2013). If we turn to the text used as reference by Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, we not only find a description of this needed gradual action, but also reference to the ultimate aim, the restoration of the Caliphate: We must not impose Islamic sharia, forcing the people to adopt something about which they are ignorant and with which they are unfamiliar If we do this, [various] ploys will be used to circumvent it, and there will be hypocrisy. [People] will exhibit Islamic [behavior] only outwardly Noah, peace be upon him, received a clear sign, a stark vision, a prophecy, and mercy that his people did not understand Noah could not force or impose [his faith upon the people]. He determined the principle of choosing [one's] faith [as a result of] persuasion and reflection, [instead of] oppression, authority, condescension, and coercion. There is no other way but gradual action, preparing the [people's] souls and setting an example, so that faith will enter their hearts Gradual action does not impose Islam at once, but rather step by step, in order to facilitate understanding, studying, acceptance, and submission. The Prophet, peace be upon him, acted in a gradual manner, by first preparing the people, and then [preparing] family, society, state, and finally the caliphate I ask the honorable Al-Azhar to rally the Islamic streams in order to unite the Muslim word and effort, restore the caliphate, and prepare a practical Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
plan to implement the law of Allah the Exalted. (Article on Muslim Brotherhood Website: Implement Sharia in Phases, June 11, 2011; MEMRI, July 5, 2011, Special Dispatch No.3969) This scenario can thus be seen as a mix of scenario 3.2. in terms of pace and pragmatic approach, being even ready for slower changes, with, at the beginning, a less strict view of what can be done or not, and of scenario 3.1. in terms of ultimate goal, but on a much longer timeframe, and certainly with different means. Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 3.3.1. This scenario, so far, seems to be quite unlikely considering the weakness and disunity of the NC and of the SMC. Furthermore, the very history of the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, implying, as explained by OBagy (Jihad in Syria, 2012: 11-13), the distrust of the population and the weakness of their presence and network within Syria, would make it even less likely, despite the strength of the Muslim Brotherhood within the NC today. Some indicators that could be followed as influencing the likelihood of this scenario Strong external support (up to external intervention) compensating for absence of legitimacy, of support network and of presence on the ground and allowing to create one Ability to unite factions under Brotherhoods leadership; Absence or disappearance of better alternative for various actors, notably the population Successful hearts and minds campaign within Syria to win over the population and build legitimacy. Scenario 3.3.2. A Truly Secular Syria? This scenario is unlikely, even utopic. Yet, imagining it will also suggest possible policy and strategy that could change the odds. Scenario To see a secular Syria rising from the ashes of the war would presuppose a victory of the Supreme Joint Military Command Council (SJMCC or SMC), especially won by fighters affiliated with moderate or secular groups, while the ascendency of the Muslim Brotherhood within the political corresponding body, the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NC) has waned. As of today, it is thus even more unlikely than the previous scenario. First, the absence of coordination and of an efficient command-and-control structure, as analysed by Ignatius (7 June 2013, The Washington Post) in the recent loss of Qusair to the pro Al-Assad groups is a severe impediment. Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
Second, the estimated weakness in numbers of fighters of the FSA (if Islamist and Muslim Brotherhoods supported groups are not included) seriously constrains the possibility of victory (Ignatius, 3 April 2013 and Lund, 4 April 2013). Finally, the secular and moderate within the NC hardly have any external support, as the American and European hesitations show daily. Nevertheless, let us imagine that dynamics change and that this utopian scenario becomes a reality, under a new type of leadership, successfully unifying and mobilizing the rebellion in a non-sectarian way. Building upon Matthew Barbers series of three posts (27 May 2013 for Syrian Comment) focusing on Sufi Sheikh Muhammad al-Yaqoubi and how hopes to see him officially elected to the National Coalition were dashed at the end of May 2013, this leadership could be Sufi. Indeed, Barber underlines: An emerging Sufi current within the Syrian resistance could soon provide an alternative to Muslim Brotherhood hegemony and change the dynamics of the political opposition. (Barber, 22 May 2013, Syria Comment) Countries, such as the U.S., the U.K., or France, who look for a way to support a solution that would end the Syrian conflict, avoid a sectarian bloodshed and the prospect of a Syrian balkanization, respect democracy and fundamental rights, without favouring extremism, and further tensions or even war in the region, would have perceived backing such a current as an answer. Practically, and depending upon further investigation, interested actors would have worked with the Movement for Building Civilization or Tiyaar Binaa al-Hadara, which should be operating soon out of an office in Jordan (Interview with Sheikh al-Yaqoubi, Barber, 30 May 2013). As explained by Barber, Sheikh al-Yaqoubi and other Sufi leaders have been building influence lately, working together for about six months to form an umbrella organization for rebel groups comprised of Sunnis and Sufis aligned with Syrias mainstream values, rather than Islamist agendas. The organization is called the Movement for Building Civilization. He and his peers have produced a charter document which rebels groups can sign. (Barber, 22 May 2013, Syria Comment) Starting from the 200 groups with which the Sufi Sheikhs (ibid.), strengthened by the novel supports received, more groups would join under a fortifying SMC, which would be increasingly victorious, despite fierce battles. Meanwhile, the ascendency of the moderates within the NC would increase. According to Barber (Ibid., see also the series on Salafi and Sufi influences on Islam in Syria in Syria Comment, 2007), Sufi ulema enjoy considerable backing within the Sunni Muslim population in Syria. According to Sheikh al-Yaqoubi, probably one-quarter of the Syrian population is Sufi (interview), which would represent 5.6 million people (on World Bank estimates for 2012).
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Such highly respected figures as Sheikh al-Yaqoubi represent[s] the kind of moderate, traditional Islam that most Syrians are familiar with, the Islam challenged by both the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists. Though taking an unambiguous stance against the regimes violence, injustice, and terror, he [Sheikh al-Yaqoubi] also continues to exert his influence encouraging rebels to avoid terrorism through fatwas condemning tactics such as car-bombings, kidnapping, landmines, the killing of prisoners, and violence against non-combatants politically aligned with the regime He maintains a very clear position defending the rights of all minorities, including those condemned by extremists as heterodox He thinks Syrias current family laws are just fine, and are already sufficiently compatible with the sharia. He also believes that legal reform should not be pursued before a constitutionally-based committee can be formed which would tackle any needed changes, after the regime has fallen and a new Syrian government has been created. (Barber, 22 May 2013, Syria Comment) As a result, a strong mobilization of the Sunni population, starting from the Sufi core, would occur. Sectarian fears decreasing in general, the mobilization capabilities of other groups (including those allowing for the creation of Bashar al-Assad regimes Peoples Army or Jaysh al-Shabi (see the excellent report by Joseph Holliday, The Assad Regime: from Counterinsurgency to Civil War - March 2013 for the ISW) would progressively disappear. Step by step, non Sunni groups and people would start believing in and actively supporting the new vision of a secular, moderate Syria. Considering the influence of Sufism among Kurds in Syria (Paulo Pinto, Syrian Studies Association Bulletin, Vol 16, No 1, 2011), a reaffirmed common ground would be found and the Kurds would fully join the new forces. Furthermore, building previous historical ties as explained by Weismann (excerpt reported by Joshua Landis, 11 May 2007), the new Sufi outlook could find common ground with both the Syrian Salafis and the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, and thus integrate them. As a result, victory would truly mean a Syria where all people and groups are integrated, save for warlords and the most violent actors that would still need to be brought back within society. Syria could constitute a novel model of secular, yet spiritual, and predominantly Muslim polity. As such, it might also be perceived as a threat by other actors in other countries, who could also feel their own power, derived from other models, questioned. The new secular Syria would have to pay attention to such dangers, however without falling into the trap of paranoia. Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 3.3.2. Right now, if conditions do not change, and as underlined earlier, this scenario is quite unlikely. Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
However, assuming the Movement for Building Civilization (or a similar initiative) succeeds in being born, then it has the potential for slowly and progressively changing the odds from highly unlikely to plausible and even probable. Most importantly, the right timing for each action will need to be respected, as many times underlined by Sheikh al-Yaqoubi. Some indicators that could be followed as influencing the likelihood of this scenario: Scenario 3.4. Back to an Al-Assad Syria? Scenario Despite the recent victory in Qusayr by the pro Al-Assad groups, and despite the strategic character of the city, this scenario seems to be unlikely, but not impossible, in a very near future. To obtain complete victory, we may assume that the regime of Bashar Al-Assad would continue and even strengthen his current strategy of population displacement and use of foreign forces. However, this strategy has profound impacts that would make the construction of peace much more difficult: it Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013 Creation of the Movement for Building Civilization (or a similar initiative) with real linkages in Syria; Mobilization of the Syrian population, across groups and communities; Strategic, operational and tactical skills of the SMC under this new configuration and of the fighting groups affiliated with the Movement. Propaganda and deception aiming at fuelling fears and hatred (external and internal). Proper material support by various actors; Proper discussions and cooperation between supporters and the moderate forces leading to commonly agreed actions if any; Patience of external supporters; Actions against the proponents of a secular Syria by actors (external and internal) who are sponsoring other solutions for Syria; Regionalization of the war; Changes of situation for one of the external players (e.g. what implications may the events in Turkey have on the situation current and prospects in Syria?); Changes in the global and regional state of play.
favours sectarianism, the spiral of fear, hatred, and retribution, while destroying wealth and thus making it more difficult to deal with displaced people and providing for their return to normal life. As underlined almost a year ago by Joshua Landis: The broader Alawite community fears the possibility of aimless retribution. To avoid this, Assad is likely to pursue the Lebanon option: turn Syria into a swamp and create chaos out of Syrias sects and factions. It is a strategy of playing upon divisions to sow chaos. (Creating a Syrian Swamp: Assads Plan B, for Syria Comment, August 10, 2012) Joseph Holliday, The Assad Regime: from Counterinsurgency to Civil War (March 2013 for the ISW, notably pp.19-23), provides for an account of the regimes strategy in terms of populations displacement, aiming at separating the rebellion from a potential basis. According to him, starting from the months following the shelling of Homs in February 2012, it was increasingly pursued intentionally (p.19, also Syrias Mutating Conflict, International Crisis Group, August 2012: 6-7). Before that, it would also have been done at least in Alawite-majority coastal regions, where repeated clearance operations in coastal Sunni enclaves took place (p.19). It is done in five ways: Use of artillery shelling on towns and neighbourhoods, or scorched earth policy (Holliday: pp.19-20, ICG: 6-9) Campaign of bulldozing neighbourhoods in Damascus and also Hama with assistance of paramilitary troops to expel people (Autumn 2012 pp.21-22) Massacres of men, women, and children in Sunni villages and neighbourhoods across Syria by pro-regime militia, notably in areas close to Alawite villages and neighbourhood (pp.21-22). Holliday however underlines that Although pro-regime militias have been primarily responsible for these killings, it is difficult to exonerate the regime of responsibility in most cases. (p.21) Air power, including the use of helicopters and so-called barrel-bombs (improvised bombs constructed from oil drums and dropped by Syrian helicopters, incendiary device aiming at better destroying buildings), the targeting of bakeries pp.22-25). Use of Surface-to-Surface Ballistic Missile (SSBM) against the population starting from January 2013 (pp.24-25).
As a result, the number of refugees and internally displaced persons increases exponentially. In April, according to the AFP more than 60.000 had died (until November 2012), while 1.2 million had fled to neighbouring countries and 4 million were internally displaced. On 13 June 2013, the UN estimates that at least 93.000 people had died so far during the conflict (BBC News, 13 June). On 17 June, 1.64 million Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
people are refugees in other countries, according to UNHCR ongoing estimates and Syria counts 4.25 million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) according to USAID and the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center.
Everything being equal, for any student of Cambodia, the situation has an eerie feeling of dj vu in terms of refugees (during the 1970-1975 war, during the Democratic Kampuchea Khmer Rouge regime and after), of emptying of cities and towns (by the Communist Party of Kampuchea (CPK) - the Khmer Rouge - once victory was achieved) and violence against ones own population. It is not by chance that Holliday uses in his report the term of cleansing. Hopefully for Syria and for Syrians, the comparison will stop there. Nevertheless, considering the very high tension in the country, not only since the beginning of the civil war, but also previously, as Syria has been under a state of emergency between 1963 and April 2011, the very destruction of the social fabric brought about by the way the civil war is waged, as noted by Lyse Doucet in her Qusair the Syrian city that died (BBC News, 7 June 2013), it is hard to imagine how a victorious Al-Assad regime could rule by any other means than fear and again emergency, to remain positive and not to jump to hasty conclusions. Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
The help and support of the victorious regimes allies would then be crucial to avoid seeing paranoia, violence and retribution settling in. Although it would be diplomatically complex, if not impossible, to implement, Syria would have to be brought back in the family of nations as quickly as possible for the same reasons. Any pressure would have to be exerted with the utmost caution while also and always thinking in terms of impact on civilian populations. Failure to do so could lead to very adverse consequences for the population. It could also have the potential to create a core block of states (Iran, Iraq, Syria) with whom relations, for many other countries, would be tense. Russia and China would then have the power to act as balancing weight. Estimating Likelihood for Scenario 3.4. if we consider the forces on the ground (forthcoming post), this scenario is the least unlikely of the last four we outlined. However, the likelihood to see a real and complete victory, followed by a peace, are still slim. Some indicators that could be followed as influencing the likelihood of this scenario: the type of support granted to the various insurgent groups; the capacity of the insurgent groups to unite and be efficient; the way the insurgent groups will fight and mobilize the population, including succeeding or failing to protect them against the population displacement of the Al-Assad regime; the support and level of protection insurgent groups and civilian populations could obtain with certainty after victory; the level of threat, both external and internal, felt by the victorious power; the kind of support given to the new Syrian regime; the capacity to integrate again the new Syria in the international society of states; the way refugees and IDPs are reintegrated (and the support negotiated, i.e. granted and accepted); the power and wisdom of various trade networks in favouring sustainable and fair business; the interest and play of various organised crime networks in the situation in Syria.
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All forces on the Syrian battleground high and low estimates Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
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All forces in Syria compared with a population that would be seen through sectarian lenses Sources: World Bank estimates 2012 for the overall population, UNHCR, 3 July 2013 count for the refugees, BBC News, 13 June for the number of people killed during the conflict, CIA World Fact Book for the sectarian repartition.
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The Syrian Civil War, mainly domestic, battlefield General Resources and Blogs Must Read Joshua Landis Syria Comment (regular, with weekly review of articles on Syria) Aymenn Jawad Al Tamimi Blog Institute for the Study of War Syria Project Brown Moses Blog - Notably weapons, forces. Middle East Research Institute - Notably translations of original and noteworthy documents Jonathan Spyer Blog Syria Report Other (and Occasional) Congressional Research Service Reports : the Middle East and the Arab World Syrian Revolution Digest (discontinued 13 June 2013) Norwegian Peacebuilding Resource Center Syria EAWorldview - Middle East and Turkey (Occasional) CFR Syria Causes of conflict Tim McDonnell, How Climate Change Worsened Violence in Syria, March 6, 2013, Mother Jones . General Syrian War Blogs of War, Interview: Phillip Smyth on Syria, March 7, 2013. CFR, Mona Yacoubian on Syrias Continuing Civil War, March 7, 2013. Syrian Civil War Wikipedia Mona Yacoubian, selected articles, Stimson. Actors NC, SJMCC or SMC, and FSA* *The National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NC), the Supreme Joint Military Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
Command Council (SJMCC or SMC) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) General Elizabeth OBagy, The Free Syrian Army, Middle East Security Report 9, Institute for the Study of War, March 2013. Asher Berman, The Yarmouk Martyrs Brigade and The Capture of the UN Troops, Syria Survey, 6 March 2013. Ken Sofer and Juliana Shafroth, The Structure and Organization of the Syrian Opposition, Center for American Progress, May 14, 2013. David Ignatius, In defeat at Qusair, Syrian rebels painful failings, Washington Post, June 7, 2013. (3/07/2013) Robert King, Interviews with Syrian Army Defectors The man who was there, December 2012, ViceBeta. Muslim Brotherhood MEMRI Article on Muslim Brotherhood Website: Implement Sharia in Phases 5 July 2011. Sufism Matthew Barber, Syria Comment 1. Sheikh al-Yaqoubi Elected to the NCits first non-Brotherhood-aligned religious figure, Wednesday, May 22nd, 2013 2. Brotherhood Figures Block Yaqoubis Appointment, Post-Confirmation, Monday, May 27th, 2013 3. Sheikh Muhammad al-Yaqoubi Interviewed by Syria Comment, Thursday, May 30th, 2013. Series on Salafi and Sufi influences on Islam in Syria in Syria Comment, 2007. Paulo Pinto, Sufism among the Kurds in Syria, Syrian Studies Association Bulletin, Vol 16, No 1, 2011. Pro Al-Assad Groups Joseph Holliday, The Assad Regime: from Counterinsurgency to Civil War, March 2013, ISW. Hezbollah bites on granite in Syria, 27 May 2013, (Last updated 28 May 2013 01:45), Anadolu Agency. Jeremy M. Sharp, Unrest in Syria and U.S. Sanctions Against the Asad Regime, August 9, 2011, CRS. Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
Kirk S Campbell, Civil-military relations and political liberalization: A comparative study of the militarys corporateness and political values in Egypt, Syria, Turkey, and Pakistan, 2009, Dissertation. (2/07/2013) Suadad al-Salhy, Iraqi Shiite militants start to acknowledge role in Syria, Apr 10, 2013, Reuters. (2/07/2013) Mona Mahmood, and Martin Chulov, Syrian war widens Sunni-Shia schism as foreign jihadis join fight for shrines, 4 June 2013, The Guardian Salafi and Sunni Islamist Aron Lund, Syrias Salafi Insurgents: the Rise of the Syrian Islamic Front, UI Occasional Paper 17, Swedish Institute of International Affairs, March 2013. Ammar Abdulhamid, Syria 2013: Rise of the Warlords, Syrian Revolution Digest, 15 January 2013. Hania Mourtada and Rick Gladstone, Syrian Rebels Break With Group Over Qaeda Wing Alliance, New York Times, April 12, 2013. Jihadi in Syria Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Jihad in Syria, Syria Comment, March 20, 2013 Matthew Barber Islamic State Declared in Syria, Syria Comment, April 14th, 2013, Pieter Van Ostaeyens blog Aaron Y. Zelin, Insight: European Foreign Fighters in Syria, 2 April 2013, ICSR Aaron Y. Zelin, Evan F. Kohlmann, Laith al-Khouri, Convoy of Martyrs in the Levant: A Joint Study Charting the Evolving Role of Sunni Foreign Fighters in the Armed Uprising Against the Assad Regime in Syria, June 2013, Flashpoint Partners. Kadyrov confirms several Chechens fight in Syria, 6 May 2013, TASS, The Voice of Russia. Daria Solovieva, Chechens Among Jihadists in Syria, April 26, 2013, Al-Monitor. Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Jabhat al-Nusra and The Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham, 17 May 2013, Brown Moses Blog. Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, What Does Moderate Islamist Mean?, November 17, 2011, The Jerusalem Post . Aron Lund, Is Jabhat al-Nosra breaking apart?, May 22nd, 2013, Syria Comment. Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Syria: Jihad and the Battle for Qusayr, May 27, 2013. Helene Lavoix A Red (team) Analysis Report July 2013
Europol, TE-SAT 2013: EU terrorism situation and trend report Christopher M. Blanchard, Al Qaeda: Statements and Evolving Ideology, July 9, 2007, CRS, Order Code RL32759 Dr. Reza Pankhurst, Understanding calls to a Caliphate JIHADOLOGY: A clearinghouse for jihd primary source material and translation service Kurds Websites MESOP West Kurdistan 1. West Kurdistan (Syria): Kurdwatch Newsletter April 2013 Wladimir van Wilgenburgs blog, Transnational Middle-East Observer Ekurd.net Books, reports, posts and articles Tordi Tejel, Syrias Kurds, Routledge, 2009 (pdf). Ilhan Tanir, Wladimir van Wilgenburg, and Omar Hossino, Unity or PYD Power Play?: Syrian Kurdish Dynamics After the Erbil Agreement, The Henry Jackson Society, 15 October 2012. Syria Report, Insurgents Declare War on Syrian Kurds, 27 May 2013. Alexandra Hudson, Syrian Kurds fear increasing attacks from Assad forces, April 18, 2013, Reuters. AFP-JIJI, Kurdish militia decides to align with Syria rebels, 23 April 2013. Wladimir van Wilgenburg, Clashes Break Out Between Kurdish Groups In Syria, April 4 2013, Al- Monitor Iraq Pulse. Wladimir van Wilgenburg, Conflict Intensifies In Syrias Kurdish Area, April 5 2013, Al-Monitor. Tulin Daloglu, Turkey-PKK Talks Move Ahead, Al-Monitor Turkey Pulse, April 3, 2013, Al-Monitor. Kurdish PYD leader details the real end game threat in Syria from an Interview with the Democratic Union Party, PYD, Co-Chairman Salih Muslim in Turkish paper Radikal April 15,2013, The Mideastwire Blog. Bayram Sinkaya, Why Doesnt Iran Want Turkey to Solve its Kurdish Issue? Author:, March 16, 2013 ORSAM (Turkey), re-posted on: March 20 2013, translated by Timur Goksel, Al Monitor.
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Wladimir van Wilgenburg, Iranian Kurdish PJAK Leader: We are stronger, while Tehran regime in collapsing, 31 January 2013, Rudaw. Jonathan Spyer, The Kurds are for the Kurds, March 9, 2013, Weekly Standard. Jonathan Spyer, Erdogans Kurdish Gambit, May 17, 2013, Jerusalem Post. Ayub Nuri, Israel and Kurdistan: Two Nations, One Geography, 19/5/2013, Rudaw Alawites Martin W. Lewis, (Historical Geographer, Stanford), Confusion About Syrias Alawites, March 29, 2011, GeoCurrents. Christians Jean Aziz, Syrias Christians Threatened by Ideology, Geography, April 23, 2013, Al-Monitor Lebanon Pulse. Maps Wikipedia, Syrian Civil War updated monthly Political Geography Now, Map Syrian conflict, regular updates @2wainu Twitter map October 2012 (see other twitter sources on map) NYT, Map of the Dispute in Syria, 12 March 2013 Frontline, Early protests in Syria (Mid March until November 2011) Some Primary Sources Syria video Syrian Observatory for Human Rights Pro Al-Assad regime site called Zanobia (arabic) Syrian documents Harakat Ahrar al-Sham al-islamiya Live Leak - Channel Syria Syrian Liberation Front on Facebook (08/07/2013) Syrian Islamic Front on Facebook
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SITE, a Washington-based group that tracks jihadist material online ICT Jihadis website monitoring group - Insight First half of December 2012 Kavkaz Center: Chechen internet agency (independent, international and Islamic) Haqq Battalions Gathering (Tajammou Kataeb al-Haqq) on Facebook Russian-language jihadist in Syria website JIHADOLOGY: A clearinghouse for jihd primary source material and translation service Sheikh al-Yaqoubi Facebook page International Actors, Regionalization and the Syrian War Forthcoming, volume 2.
p.23 Posted on 28 June 2013 on the SLF Facebook Page p.24 Syrian Islamic Front - right brigade Ansar training camp. Posted on July 3 2013 on SIF Facebook page p.25 Photo from "a video released by the outlet at the end of May of a JAN training camps in Deraa" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9FJWmq3vwU, Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, "Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham: Deraa Governorate" 21 June 2013 p.26 ISIS logo from Youtube video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TpDOpH- sBPs&feature=youtu.be p.27 ISIS fighter posted by Twitter account @al_khansaa2 on 17 June 2013 (Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi, Jabhat al-Nusra and the Islamic State of Iraq and ash-Sham: Deir ez-Zor and the wider east of Syria, 27 June 2013) p.29 U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, accompanied by U.S. Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Moscow on May 7, 2013. by U.S. Department of State, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons p.32 The site of the plenary session which adopted the first of the Covenant of the League of Nations on Feb. 14, 1919. A year later, the first meeting of the Council of the League of Nations took place in the same room, 1919, by Woodrow Wilson Presidential Library Archives, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons p.36 [Victory]...depends on overwhelming striking force, 1939-1946, by S Whitear, The National Archives (United Kingdom), catalogued under document record INF3/138, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons p.37 Map of the Caliphate in 750 by Sheperd, William R. Historical Atlas. New York: Henry Holt and Company, 1911. 53. Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons p.40 Syrian Islamic Front Logo (Facebook page) via Wikipedia p.40 Syrian Islamic Liberation Front Logo (Facebook Page) via Wikipedia p.42 Muslim Brotherhood Emblem in the 1930s, Public Domain, via Wikimedia Commons p.48 Displacements in Syria after March 2012 - IDMC map
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Helene Lavoix
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