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Summary This specialty drugmaker, formerly Biovail Corp., was created through the September 2010 merger of Valeant Pharmaceuticals and Biovail. In May 2013, VRX agreed to acquire Bausch & Lomb for $8.7 billion.
Key Stock Statistics (Source S&P, Vickers, company reports) 52-Wk Range $96.25 42.47 Trailing 12-Month EPS $-0.43 Trailing 12-Month P/E NM $10K Invested 5 Yrs Ago $93,705 Price Performance
30-Week Mov. Avg. 12-Mo. Target Price
100 80 60 40
S&P Oper. EPS 2013 E S&P Oper. EPS 2014 E P/E on S&P Oper. EPS 2013 E Common Shares Outstg. (M)
0.81 15 NR
LOW
MEDIUM
HIGH
20
Our risk assessment primarily reflects risks associated with the challenges of integrating acquisitions, achieving planned synergies and growing the overall business. Along with other branded pharmaceutical companies, VRX also faces R&D risks associated with the development, regulatory approval and commercialization of pipeline products.
76
Vol. Mil. 15 10 5 0 5 1 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A 4 3 38
BB B+ AA A+ STRONG 95
HIGHEST = 99
D
4
B-
2010
2011
2012
2013
Options: ASE, CBOE, P, Ph
Analysis prepared by Equity Analyst Herman Saftlas on Jun 03, 2013, when the stock traded at $89.26. Highlights
Revenue/Earnings Data Revenue (Million U.S. $) 1Q 2Q 2013 1,068 -2012 856.1 820.1 2011 565.0 609.4 2010 219.6 238.8 2009 173.3 193.5 2008 208.5 186.1
Investment Rationale/Risk
We project revenues of $4.9 billion in 2013, up from 2012's $3.5 billion, primarily reflecting the late 2012 acquisition of Medicis Pharmaceutical. We expect Medicis to significantly expand VRX's higher margin dermatological pharmaceuticals business, which was boosted by the earlier acquisitions of Dermik and Ortho Dermatologics. Key Medicis franchises comprise Solodyn oral anti-acne therapy and Restylane dermal filler. We forecast solid sales growth for ophthalmological products, with more modest gains seen for U.S. neurology drugs. We project continued above-average sales growth in emerging markets. We forecast notable expansion in adjusted gross margins in 2013, from 2012's 74%, helped by projected higher volume, a more profitable sales mix, and acquisition-related synergies. However, we expect R&D costs and interest expense to increase sharply, with the latter reflecting merger-related financing. After a projected adjusted tax rate of about 4.4%, versus 3.0% in 2012, we estimate cash EPS of $5.63 for 2013 and $6.50 for 2014. Cash EPS was $4.88 in 2012.
In late May 2013, VRX agreed to acquire privately held Bausch & Lomb (B&L) for $8.7 billion, of which $4.5 billion will go to an investor group, and $4.2 billion will be used to repay B&L debt. We believe this is a highly attractive deal, moving VRX to leadership in the rapidly growing ophthalmology space, in addition to its existing dominance in dermatology. The deal is expected to yield at least $800 million in annual cost savings by the end of 2014. VRX noted that if the transaction had occurred at the start of 2013, the deal would have been 40% accretive to 2013 EPS on a pro forma basis. Risks to our opinion and target price include R&D pipeline setbacks, and failure to successfully integrate acquisitions. Another risk is VRX's highly leveraged balance sheet, with debt currently near 3.8X EBITDA. Our 12-month target price of $102 applies a premium to peers P/E of 15.7X to our 2014 EPS estimate, which we believe is warranted by VRX's above average growth prospects. Our discounted cash flow model, which assumes a WACC of 10.2% and terminal growth of 1%, also indicates intrinsic value near $102.
Earnings Per Share (U.S. $) 2013 -0.09 E1.25 E1.48 2012 -0.04 -0.07 0.02 2011 0.02 0.17 0.13 2010 -0.02 0.21 -1.27 2009 0.25 0.15 0.25 2008 0.35 -0.16 0.31
Fiscal year ended Dec. 31. Next earnings report expected: Early August. EPS Estimates based on S&P Operating Earnings; historical GAAP earnings are as reported.
Dividend Data No dividends have been paid since the Valeant-Biovail merger in September 2010.
Please read the Required Disclosures and Analyst Certification on the last page of this report.
Officers Chrmn & CEO J.M. Pearson EVP, CFO & Chief Acctg Officer H.B. Schiller Chief Admin Officer B.M. Stolz CSO R.F. Butz CTO J. Sebben
Based on S&P's proprietary quantitative model, stocks are ranked from most overvalued (1) to most undervalued (5).
Fair Value Calculation Investability Quotient Percentile Volatility Technical Evaluation Insider Activity
NA
Price/Sales Price/EBITDA Price/Pretax Income P/E Ratio Avg. Diluted Shares Outstg (M)
Figures based on calendar year-end price
24
LOWEST = 1 HIGHEST = 100
Key Growth Rates and Averages Past Growth Rate (%) Sales Net Income Ratio Analysis (Annual Avg.) Net Margin (%) % LT Debt to Capitalization Return on Equity (%)
1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 9 Years
VRX scored lower than 76% of all companies for which an S&P Report is available.
NM NM
47.77 NM
16.22 -96.38
7.23 -3.78
LOW BULLISH
AVERAGE
HIGH
Since December, 2012, the technical indicators for VRX have been BULLISH.
UNFAVORABLE
NEUTRAL
FAVORABLE
Company Financials Fiscal Year Ended Dec. 31 Per Share Data (U.S. $) Tangible Book Value Cash Flow Earnings Dividends Payout Ratio Prices:High Prices:Low P/E Ratio:High P/E Ratio:Low Income Statement Analysis (Million U.S. $) Revenue Operating Income Depreciation Interest Expense Pretax Income Effective Tax Rate Net Income 2012 NA NA -0.38 NA Nil 61.11 42.47 NM NM 2011 NM 2.37 0.49 Nil Nil 57.24 28.06 NM NM 2010 NM -0.24 -1.06 1.28 NM 30.80 13.64 NM NM 2009 NM 2.05 1.11 0.64 58% 15.50 9.26 14 8 2008 2.41 1.79 1.25 1.50 120% 14.90 6.65 12 5 2007 3.52 1.74 1.22 2.00 164% 26.48 13.20 22 11 2006 3.04 1.95 1.30 0.50 38% 28.28 14.51 22 11 2005 1.31 2.57 1.55 0.50 32% 27.28 13.74 18 9 2004 NM 1.59 1.01 Nil Nil 26.01 14.30 26 14 2003 NM 1.37 -0.17 Nil Nil 51.30 16.51 NM NM
NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Balance Sheet & Other Financial Data (Million U.S. $) Cash NA Current Assets NA Total Assets NA Current Liabilities NA Long Term Debt NA Common Equity NA Total Capital NA Capital Expenditures NA Cash Flow NA Current Ratio NA % Long Term Debt of Capitalization NA % Net Income of Revenue NA % Return on Assets NA % Return on Equity NA
170 1,358 13,142 924 6,540 4,007 11,692 58.5 772 1.5 55.9 6.5 1.3 3.6
400 1,020 10,795 692 3,478 4,911 9,826 16.8 -46.3 1.5 35.4 NM NM NM
124 351 2,067 257 314 1,354 1,668 7.42 325 1.4 18.8 21.5 9.5 13.8
319 490 1,624 267 Nil 1,202 1,202 22.0 286 1.8 Nil 26.4 11.7 16.0
438 707 1,782 368 Nil 1,298 1,298 35.1 280 1.9 Nil 23.2 9.8 15.0
840 1,058 2,175 410 401 1,285 1,686 44.8 312 2.6 23.8 19.4 9.9 16.6
453 685 2,029 274 413 1,220 1,633 37.8 411 2.5 25.3 26.4 13.2 21.7
39.3 315 1,711 190 445 1,054 1,499 28.0 253 1.7 29.7 18.2 8.9 16.6
133 412 2,298 263 754 1,267 2,021 36.9 217 1.6 37.3 NM NM NM
Data as orig reptd.; bef. results of disc opers/spec. items. Per share data adj. for stk. divs.; EPS diluted. E-Estimated. NA-Not Available. NM-Not Meaningful. NR-Not Ranked. UR-Under Review.
Stock Performance
GICS Sector: Health Care Sub-Industry: Pharmaceuticals Based on S&P 1500 Indexes Month-end Price Performance as of 5/31/13
160
2009
Sub-Industry
2010
2011
2012
2013
Sector
S&P 1500
NOTE: All Sector & Sub-Industry information is based on the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS)
NA-Not Available NM-Not Meaningful NR-Not Rated. *For Peer Groups with more than 15 companies or stocks, selection of issues is based on market capitalization.
Source: S&P.
Source: S&P.
Hold
H
Weak Hold
WH
Sell S
No Opinion
VRX Trend
BUY/HOLD Companies Offering Coverage BMO Capital Markets, U.S. Equity Research BMO Capital Markets, Canadian Equity Research BofA Merrill Lynch CRT Capital Group LLC Canaccord Genuity Collins Stewart LLC Deutsche Bank GMP Securities L.P. Goldman Sachs JP Morgan Jefferies & Company, Inc. Morgan Stanley Morningstar Inc. National Bank Financial Paradigm Capital, Inc. Piper Jaffray Companies RBC Capital Markets S&P Equity Research Stifel, Nicolaus & Co., Inc. Susquehanna Financial Group, LLLP TD Securities Equity Research Thomas Weisel Equity Research UBS Investment Bank Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
80
40
2011
2012
2013
Of the total 24 companies following VRX, 17 analysts currently publish recommendations. No. of Ratings 6 6 3 1 0 1 17 % of Total 35 35 18 6 0 6 100 1 Mo. Prior 3 Mos. Prior 6 6 7 8 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 19 18
Buy Buy/Hold Hold Weak Hold Sell No Opinion Total Wall Street Consensus Estimates
Estimates 8 4 0 -4
J F M A M J J
2012
For fiscal year 2013, analysts estimate that VRX will earn $5.84. For the 1st quarter of fiscal year 2013, VRX announced earnings per share of $-0.09, representing -2% of the total annual estimate. For fiscal year 2014, analysts estimate that VRX's earnings per share will grow by 29% to $7.53.
2012
2013
Fiscal Years 2014 2013 2014 vs. 2013 Q2'14 Q2'13 Q2'14 vs. Q2'13
# of Est. 17 16 6% 13 13 0%
A company's earnings outlook plays a major part in any investment decision. Standard & Poor's organizes the earnings estimates of over 2,300 Wall Street analysts, and provides their consensus of earnings over the next two years. This graph shows the trend in analyst estimates over the past 15 months.
Dividends on American Depository Receipts (ADRs) and American Depository Shares (ADSs) are net of taxes (paid in the country of origin).
5-STARS (Strong Buy): Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark, by a wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on an absolute basis. 4-STARS (Buy): Total return is expected to outperform the total return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares rising in price on an absolute basis. 3-STARS (Hold): Total return is expected to closely approximate the total return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, with shares generally rising in price on an absolute basis. 2-STARS (Sell): Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant benchmark over the coming 12 months, and the share price is not anticipated to show a gain. 1-STARS (Strong Sell): Total return is expected to underperform the total return of a relevant benchmark by a wide margin over the coming 12 months, with shares falling in price on an absolute basis. Relevant benchmarks: In North America, the relevant benchmark is the S&P 500 Index, in Europe and in Asia, the relevant benchmarks are the S&P Europe 350 Index and the S&P Asia 50 Index, respectively. For All Regions: All of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the research analyst's personal views regarding any and all of the subject securities or issuers. No part of analyst compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Analysts generally update stock reports at least four times each year.
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S&P Capital IQ Global Quantitative Model Recommendations Distribution as of March 31, 2013
Ranking Buy Hold Sell Total North America 40.0% 20.1% 39.9% 100% Europe 41.7% 21.3% 37.0% 100% Asia 54.7% 18.1% 27.2% 100% Global 46.8% 19.5% 33.7% 100%
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