Jean-Pierre Bocquet- Farewell to Paleodernography Appel, Claude Masset*

Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Institut de Palgontologie Humaine, 1 rue Reng Panhard, F- 75013 Paris, France

Aging is based upon a good correlation between biological features (cranial sutures, pubic symphysis, humeral and femoral heads, osteons) and age. However it is not possible to estimate the structure of deaths of skeletal population if the correlation coefficient (r or multiple-R) between biological characteristics and age is lower than 0-9. None of the published age indicators, whether they are used together or separately, reach this required level (about 0'83 for * Laboratolre de Prghistoire, males and 0.8 for females). Therefore all the age distributions Coll~ge de France, currently published emphasize the limitation of a given method. At 11 place ~Viarcelin Berthelot, the present time the use of demographic estimators based on historiF-75231 Paris Cedex 05, France cally known populations is the best approach but it gives little information (e0 = 25 years, lq0 = 0"25 to 0.3, average number of Received 24 May 1931 and children per woman = 4-6), furthermore it is, to a certain extent, accepted 9 November 1981 tautological in nature. After devoting a few years to this young, possibly still-born science, the authors bid farewell to paleodemoKeywords : paleodemography, aging, demographic estimations. graphy.

1. I n t r o d u c t i o n
T h e bones c o m i n g from cernetery excavations often have in store interesting indications as to their owners' sexes a n d ages at d e a t h . S t a r t i n g from this k i n d of information, it was t e m p t i n g to calculate the a g e - s e x d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the d e a d for a n y e x h u m e d p o p u l a tion. T h u s a considerable n u m b e r of essays in p a l e o d e m o g r a p h y c a m e into being. F r o m such a s t a r t i n g - p o i n t , some o f t h e m go so far as to reconstitute lif~-tables. M e a n w h i l e , "historical d e m o g r a p h y " - - w h i c h is w o r k e d o u t m a i n l y from p a r i s h registers of births, m a r r i a g e s a n d d e a t h s - - s u c c e e d e d in c o n s t r u c t i n g a p i c t u r e of life a n d d e a t h a m o n g the E u r o p e a n peoples of three centuries ago (see for instance P e r r e n o u d , 1975, or Blayo, 1975). Tile c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n the m o r t a l i t y p a t t e r n thus o b t a i n e d a n d the one arising from o u r g r a v e y a r d p o p u l a t i o n s (some of t h e m b a r e l y older) was striking. I t c h a l l e n g e d the q u a l i t y of the conclusions p r o p o u n d e d b y the p a l e o d e m o g r a p h e r s : were the p o p u l a t i o n s they h a d b e e n investigating a c t u a l l y as p e c u l i a r as they seemed to be? o r p e r h a p s were the m e t h o d s in use w a r p e d b y some systematic e r r o r ? T h e second hypothesis p r o v e d to be the r i g h t one. I n fact there are several causes o f error, of a statistical r a t h e r t h a n a biological n a t u r e . These causes o f error were d e s c r i b e d in previous works (Masset, 1971, 1973, 1976a) a n d they a r e n o t to be e x p o u n d e d here. J u s t to give the r e a d e r a n i d e a o f the r a n g e of the deviations involved, let us only r e c a l l the most a w k w a r d of t h e m : the p r o c e d u r e w h i c h leads one to superimpose on the m o r t a l i t y structure of c e m e t e r y p o p u l a t i o n s the structure o f o t h e r p o p u l a t i o n s entirely alien to them. W e shall call "reference p o p u l a t i o n " the set o f skeletons of a k n o w n a g e to Which w e c o m p a r e o u r g r a v e y a r d p o p u l a t i o n s so as to calculate their ages a t d e a t h . T o each stage of evolution o f a n age i n d i c a t o r - - w h e t h e r it b e t h e c r a n i a l sutures, t h e p u b i c symphysis, or the H a v e r s i a n s y s t e m - - c o r r e s p o n d s a m e a n age in the reference
Journal of Human Evolution (1982) 11, 321-333

0047-2484]82/040321

+ 13 $03.00]0

~ 1982 Academic Press Inc. (London) Limited

322

J.-P. BOCQUET-APPEL AND C. MA$SET

p o p u l a t i o n . I t so h a p p e n s t h a t this m e a n age is not wholly biological b y n a t u r e : it also d e p e n d s to a large extent o n the a g e structure o f the reference p o p u l a t i o n . T h e effect o f this factor is n o t self-evident. Better t h a n a l e n g t h y dissertation, a q u i c k glance a t F i g u r e 1 will allow t h e r e a d e r to a p p r e c i a t e the influence o f the age structures of t h e various reference p o p u l a t i o n s u p o n the a g e determinations. Figure 1. Effect of the age structure of a reference population on the age determination. (I) Reference population of McKern & Stewart (1957); n = 375 skeletons. (I') Age distribution of the dead in Sudan Nubia, from the 1lth to the 13th century, by the symphyseat face of the pubis, referring to I; n = 258 (Swedlund & Armelagos, 1969). (II) Reference population ofNemeskeri et al. (1960); n ,= 105. (II') Age distribution of the dead in Hungary, from the 10th to the 12th century, by the "complex method", referring to II; n = 1756 (Acs~di & Nemesk6ri 1970). (III) Reference population of Kobayashi (1957); n = 142. (III') Twenty-five sets of Japanese skeletons, spreading out t~om the Jomon time (9000 B.C.) to the 19th century A.D., by the symphyseal face of the pubis, referring to III; n = 469
(ibid).

'oF'
2
~ 20 IO

F1
4 '0 3 0 2 0 [1 0 I'

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,
I I

IO 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Age (U.S.) 3O 20,o

I0 20 30 40

L_ , t I 50 60 7 0 8 0

I
I

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I I I

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I
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~' I I I IO 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 IO 20 30 40 Age (Hungary)

g 20

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I0 I
, i

I0 20 50 40 50 60 6 70 80

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30 40 50 60 70 80

Age (Jopon)

H o w e v e r , let us h a v e a look at F i g u r e 2, which represents two subsets o f m a l e c r a n i a t a k e n from the L i s b o n collection ( " F e r r a z de M a c e d o " C o l l e c t i o n ) ; these two samples were m a d e u p b y using a n a l g o r i t h m t h a t produces, from a set o f real n u m b e r s , subsets w h i c h a r e n o r m a l l y d i s t r i b u t e d a n d whose means a n d variances a r e close to the values p r o p o u n d e d b y the o p e r a t o r . I n the two d i a g r a m s o f F i g u r e 2, the age is on the x-axis, a n d the degree o f closure o f the c r a n i a l sutures on the y-axis. T h e n u m b e r of c r a n i a is

FAREWELL

TO PALEODEMOGRAPHY

323

Figure 2. Relationship between cranial sutures' closure and age in two subsets of one population. There is a translation of one of the two regression lines, while the other remains more or less in the same place.

5 4

II

/
9 i

BI

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2~

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50

the same in both cases: n = 65. F o r Subset I, the m e a n age is x = 25"8, a n d the s t a n d a r d deviation s.d. = 5.8. For Subset I I , they are respectively 50"7 a n d 8.0.* W h e n c o m p a r i n g the scatter plots a n d the corresponding regression lines, we find that A 1 a n d As, w h i c h indicate the m e a n synostosis for each age, almost occupy the s a m e position i n b o t h d i a g r a m s : they express a biological p h e n o m e n o n i n d e p e n d e n t of the age composition, as the m e a n degree of synostosis of an age bracket could not d e p e n d on the structure of a set this b r a c k e t was drawn from. However, w h e n a g i n g a c r a n i u m by the state of its sutures, one m u s t not use A 1 a n d A~, b u t B 1 a n d B~, the inverse regressions. As these lines are b o u n d to go t h r o u g h the center of gravity of the scatter plots, their position depends a great deal on the position of the latter. I n the second d i a g r a m , while B 1 r e m a i n s i n the same position, B 2 runs further a p a r t to the right. I n the case of Degree of Synostosis 1, for instance, we see that tile average age is 27 in the left s a m p l e , a n d 48 i n the right one. Moreover, B 1 a n d B z would n o t be parallel if we did not have a Gaussian r e p a r t i t i o n in b o t h cases. W h e n this is not the case, B rotates a r o u n d the center of gravity of the scatter plot, getting closer to A as the p r o p o r t i o n of extreme vaIues to center values increases, getting further away from it w h e n it decreases. Therefore, unlike A, B is mobile on the plane, according to the age distribution of the p o p u l a t i o n we are studying. T h e age extimations this line c o m m a n d s vary along with it. T h e r e is a translation of one of the two regression lines, while the other remains more or less in the same place. T w o other causes of error result in leaving old people out of every age distribution. A third a n d especially h a r m f u l one is related to the sex d i m o r p h i s m which is overlooked by most palaeodemographers, w h e n its i m p o r t a n c e was outlined b y Picozzo as early as *The propounded values were, for the subset I, s = 25 and s = 5; for subset II, s = 50 and s.d. = 10, as we wished to make up samples that can be compared, respectively, to the sample of soldiers killed in Corea published by McKern & Stewart (1957) on which most American palaeodemographers currently rely (where s -- 23.5 and s.d. = 5.8) and to the male crania of the Budapest collection (Acsgtdi & Nemeskeri, 1970), which has served as basis to the most up-to-date European research (where s = 56-7 and s.d. = 15.5).

324

J.-P. BOCIQUET-APPEL AND

C. MASSET

1895, and by m a n y others since (for instance Brooks, 1955; Necrasov et al., 1966; Hajnis & Nov~k, 1976). Finally, we must be aware that the pataeodemographic way of reasoning implies that the osseous evolution of adults has never varied from Prehistory to the present time, which is nothing short of doubtful. O n the contrary, we can show that the ossification of cranial sutures, for instance, has tended for a century to materialize earlier and earlier in a life time (Masset & de Castro e Almeida, 1981). The mere possibility of a secular trend of the age indicators should have urged us to make up our reference population solely out of individuals deceased before the Industrial Revolution of the 19th and 20th centuries, or away from it. O n the contrary, most paleodemographers refer to individuals deceased in 1953 (McKern & Stewart, 1957) or 1956 (Acs~di & Nemeskeri, 1970), if not more recently yet. Therefore a different approach to paleodemographic research would be welcome: keeping clear of the signalled snags, it would be necessary in order to avoid the main cause of error, to rely upon reference populations with age classes of about the same size. One of us has tried to do so (Bocquet, 1977, 1978). Unfortunately, this type of research involves a number of basic theoretical difficulties, which we are going to examine
nOW.

2. T h e E s t i m a t i o n o f a P o p u l a t i o n S t r u c t u r e

Beyond the individual aging of a skeleton, what a paleodemographer attempts to estimate is a structure of deaths, i.e. the distribution of deaths according to age. I n other words, this is a classifying problem. The skeletons, the ages of which have been individually assessed, are distributed in one class or another. Usually, the rate of misclassification among subadults in the 0-4, 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 age brackets is very low, for the age estimation is based on a biological process--growth--taking place within a comparatively short span of time. With adults, on the contrary, the age estimation is based on a process developing within much looser limits: the aging process. For the latter, what does the classification error depend on? I t depends on two elements, the first one of a biological, the second of a statistical nature: (1) the error of age determination ay, as given by the regression Y ( X ) whatever the age indicator m a y be. This standard error reflects the a m o u n t of variability of the h u m a n skeleton during the aging process. One intuitively feels that the higher the variability of an age indicator, the lower its anthropological interest. (2) the range of age groups going into the structure of deaths to be estimated. All things being equal, the wider the class range, the lower the n u m b e r of misclassified skeletons. In the case of a uniform distribution of individuals between the 18 and 90 age limits, i.e. within 72 years, the variance of the distribution is: vat(X) = E ( X ~) -- E ( X ) 2 - - 3
4 - - - ~ ' cry = ~ /

where a is the upper limit of the distribution (72 years), ay = 20.68 years. This being specified, if the intensity of the relation between the biological indicator a n d the age at death is known, i.e. if we know the different levels of correlation (r or R-multiple), we can calculate a priori, first the standard-error in the estimation of the

FAREWELL T O PALEODEMOGRAPHY

325

age o f a skeleton, second the r a n g e of the age groups w i t h i n the p o p u l a t i o n . This r a n g e c a n n o t b e assigned j u s t a n y n u m e r i c a l value. I t has to be such t h a t the classifying e r r o r will b e inferior to a n a c c e p t a b l e p r o b a b i l i t y level. F o r a classifying e r r o r of 5 % , t h e r a n g e is cry 4. T a b l e 1 gives for a n y biological i n d i c a t o r , a c c o r d i n g to various levels o f correlation with a g e : (a) the s t a n d a r d - e r r o r of age e s t i m a t i o n within 95 % o f confidence limit, (b) the r a n g e o f age class requisite to a 5 % r a t e of misclassification, a n d (c) the total n u m b e r of age g r o u p s w h i c h can possibly b e b u i l t u p w i t h i n the 72-year r a n g e (18 to 90).
Table 1

Relation between the correlation level of a biological indicator ( r o r R ) a n d a g e a t d e a t h , a n d : s t a n d a r d - e r r o r of a g e e s t l m a t i o n at 95% l e v e l ; r a n g e o f a g e - g r o u p s f o r a 5~ o f m i s c l a s s i f i c a t i o n ; n u m b e r o f a g e g r o u p s in t h e d e l ~ a o g r a p h i c structure to be estimated

r or R O.1 0.2 0"3 0"4 0.5 0-6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0"950 0.990 0.999 0"999927

Error of estimation at 95% level 41~36 40.73 39.65 38.09 36 33.25 29-68 24.94 18"11 12.97 5.86 1.85 0.5

Group range for 5% of miselassifieation ----72 66.51 59.37 49.88 36"23 25.95 11"72 3.71 1

Number of age groups in the estimated structure ------1 1.1 1.2 1.4 2 2'8 6. I 19.4 72

W h a t do w e see? U n d e r a 0.9 correlation level, it is impossible to estimate w i t h o u t a c o n s i d e r a b l e risk of error b o t h the i n d i v i d u a l age of a skeleton a n d the d e a t h s t r u c t u r e to w h i c h it belongs. However, w e a r e often t o l d t h a t r o u g h age i n d i c a t o r s a n d r o u g h m e t h o d s t e n d to give r o u g h d e m o g r a p h i c results. This is a fallacy. T a b l e 1 p l a i n l y shows t h a t w e find n o t h i n g at all. A r e there a n y biological indicators w i t h such a high c o r r e l a t i o n level? I t is q u i t e r a r e in the biological field. T a b l e s 2 a n d 3 give the coefficients o f correlation w i t h t h e age a t d e a t h for all the p u b l i s h e d age indicators, w h e t h e r they a r e used together or separately. N o n e b y far r e a c h the r e q u i r e d level. Even the H a v e r s i a n system, w h i c h since the 1910s ( B a l t h a z a r d & L e b r u n , 1911) has now a n d then fostered a g l i m m e r o f hope, is of little interest. Lastly, it should be stated that, strictly speaking, the rate o f misclassified skeletons for a given structure is u n k n o w n a n d unknowable. I t d e p e n d s chiefly on t h e a c t u a l a g e structure o f the p o p u l a t i o n , a n d this is precisely w h a t we a r e t r y i n g to find out. I f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f the p o p u l a t i o n we wish to reconstruct were k n o w n b e f o r e h a n d , w e c o u l d c o m p u t e the rate of misclassification, n a m e l y the difference b e t w e e n the a c t u a l a n d the e s t i m a t e d structure. But we do n o t k n o w it. O w i n g to the u n i f o r m s t r u c t u r e o f t h e reference p o p u l a t i o n , w e p o s t u l a t e d t h a t the misclassification is evenly distributed. But this u n i f o r m d i s t r i b u t i o n is o n l y the best a p p r o x i m a t i o n possible to all the u n k n o w n

326 Table 2

J.-P. BOGQUET-APPEL AND Go MASSET Coefficients of correlation between the major age indicators and the age at death (Crude observation data d r a w n f r o m the anthropological population of Colmbra, Portugal)

Humerus
Endocranial sutures Males Females Both sexes 0-591 0.346

Femur spongiosa
0.564 0"584

spongiosa cortical
0-340 0-442 -- 0.432 -- 0.688

cortical
-- 0.022 -- 0.464

Pubic symphysis
0.469 0.497

Osteons

0.526-0.720 For all age indicators except osteons, n = 194 among males, n = 161 among females; Osteons: n = 19 and 15 in both sexes. From: Bocquet-Appel, Maia Neto, de Morais & Tavares da Rocha, 1978; Bocquet-Appel, Almeida Tavares da Rocha & Xavier de Morals, 1980.

Table 3

Multiple correlation coefficients (R) between the major age indicators and the age at death (theoretical s a m p l e drawn f r o m the anthropological population o f Colmbra, Portugal) Males Age indicators 2 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4 5 5, 5, 5, 5, R 0-706 0.768 0.809 0.824 0.829 n 299 298 297 296 295 P Age indicators 2 2, 2, 2, 2, Females R 0.711 0"760 0.789 0"792 0"794 0.794 n 192 191 190 189 188 187 P 0.001 0.001 0.001 0"001 N.S. N.S.

6 6, 3 6, 3, 1 6, 3, 1

0.001 3 0"001 3, 0.001 3, 0.001 3, 0.05 3, 3, 0.829 294 N.S. 1

5 5, 6 5, 6, 4 5, 6 , 4

1: Femoral cortical index, 2: Femur (spongiosa), 3: Humeral cortical index, 4: Humerus (spongiosa), 5: Pubic symphysis, 6: Endocranial suture closure. N.S. : non significant. Drawn from: Bocquet-Appel, Maia Neto, Xavier de Morals & Tavares da Rocha, 1978. d i s t r i b u t i o n s . T h e effect o f t h e a n t h r o p o l o g i c a l r e f e r e n c e p o p u l a t i o n o n t h e e s t i m a t e d s t r u c t u r e a s y m p t o t i c a l l y d e c r e a s e s as t h e c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n a g e a n d b i o l o g i c a l i n d i c a t o r c o n v e r g e s t o w a r d s 1. 3. D e m o g r a p h i c Estimators

S i n c e w e w e r e u n a b l e to e s t i m a t e f r o m t h e i r b o n e s t h e age a t d e a t h o f adults, w e t u r n e d t o w a r d s a n o t h e r c o u r s e o f i n v e s t i g a t i o n . G r a v e y a r d s p r o v i d e us w i t h t w o k i n d s o f fairly r e l i a b l e d a t a : t h e a g e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f i m m a t u r e s , a n d t h e c o n t r a s t b e t w e e n fully g r o w n i n d i v i d u a l s a n d t h o s e w h o s e g r o w t h is still in progress. A f t e r a f e w trials, w e s e l e c t e d a p r o p o r t i o n t h a t w e c o u l d c a l c u l a t e w i t h o u t u n d u e risk o f e r r o r for a g r a v e y a r d p o p u l a tion, n a m e l y t h e r a t i o : n u m b e r o f c h i l d r e n d e c e a s e d b e t w e e n 5 a n d 15
"II

for s h o r t :

n u m b e r o f a d u l t s d e c e a s e d a t 20 a n d l a t e r

Ds-x4 9 /)20-o)

FAREWELLTO PALEODEMOORAPHY

327

Figure 3. Regression of the life expectancy at birth in terms of the ratio (D,_14)/D2o_o~. Regression equation: if x = Ds_14/D2o_o, a n d 8~ is the estimated value of e~, then ~ ~ 78.721 logx0 %/1-~ -- 3.384 1.503. T h e correlation coefficient is r = 0.941.

\o

3O

o 25

~ o ~

20

I 0,150

I 0.200

I 0.250

I 0.300

Os- ,_.~4
D20

Table 4

Correlation coefficients between some demographical param e t e r s a n d Ds_I4/Dao_ ~ a c c o r d i n g t o d i f f e r e n t r a t e s o f natural increase

Demographical parameters I n f a n t mortality quotient Natality Mortality 0-1 years 0-5 years rate rate 0-825 0-833 0.838 0.841 0.843 0.846 0.851 0-738 0-757 0.929 0.924 0.920 0.918 0.916 0.913 0.907 0.928 0.923 0.920 0.918 0-916 0-913 0-907

R a t e of n a t u r a l increase --0.01 --0-005 -- 0.002 0-0 0.002 0.005 0.01

Life expectancy at birth 0.940 0-941 0.941 0.941 0.940 0.938 0.933

Average n u m b e r of children per w o m a n not calculated --0-969 ----

0.768
0.775 0.782 0.793 0.810

n ~ 40, except for the average n u m b e r of children where n = 30 (life tables). P < 0.000 001. D r a w n from Bocquet & Masset (1977), pp. 84-87, and Bocquet (1979), p. 266.

328

j . - p . BOC~UET-APPEL AND C. MASSET

Relying on 40 mortality tables with rather low life expectancies, originating mainly t?om European, American and Asian populations of the last two centuries, and also from a few European ones of the 17th and early 18th centuries, we were able to observe correlation coefficients in the region of 0-9 between, on the one hand, Ds_14/D2o_eoand on the other, the life expectancy at birth, the infant mortality quotient, the natality and mortality rates, and the average n u m b e r of children born fi'om one w o m a n during
Table 5 E s t i m a t i o n o f the life e x p e c t a n c y at b i r t h (6~), the q u o t i e n t of i n f a n t m o r t a l i t y (1r the q u o t i e n t o f m o r t a l i t y of c h i l d r e n before five y e a r s (tr a n d the a v e r a g e n u m b e r of c h i l d r e n per w o m a n ( ~ ) for v a r i o u s c e m e t e r i e s
Number of skeletons Sites Taforalt N o r t h Africa Mesolithic Columnata N o r t h Africa Mesolithic Fontenay-le-Marmion France, Ctaasseen Neolithic Belleville France, Late Neolithic Loisy-en-Brle France, Late Neolithic MaroIles-sur-Seine France, late Neolithic Tiszapolgar H u n g a r y , Chalcollthic Sarata-Monteoru R o u m a n i a , Middle Bronze Age Lerna Greece, Middle Bronze Age 186 15 -- 0"188 80 25"01 0"275 0 435 5"53

D5-14 D~0-o

go

too

5q0

Indications given by the authors

116

10-5 -= 0-219 22"54 48 9 --= 4O

0"290

0"465

Enumeration : tq0 = 0"242 5q0 = 0"445 Enumeration: 5'97 xq0 = 0.267 Estimated: ~ o ~ 25 years 6'04

62

0"225

22-11

0"293

0-470

132 164 35 161 173

19 -- 0'200 95 22 -- 0-193 114 3.5 - - = 0-188 24 20"I -- 0-172 116"9 23 -- 0.200 115 18 -- 0"190 94

24"01 24-74 25"01 26"45 24'01

0"282 0'277 0"275 0"267 0'282

0"447 0-440 0'435 0"418 0'447

5'71 5"60 5'53 5"27 5'71 Enumeration: lqo = 0"359 bqo = 0'487 Estimated : eo = 16 years Enumeration: 5"10 tq0 ~ 0.160 ~qo ~ 0"278 Emuneratlon: 4.91 tqo ~ 0"200 ~qo = 0"308 5"57 7.10 7-68 Enumeration : tq~ ~ 0.I46 5q0 ~ 0"325 estimated: g~ = 26.65

234

24"75

0"277

0-438

Kdrpuszta Hungary, llthcentury MedlevalHungary 10th-12th century Montlgny-Esbly France, late Neolithic Sopronk6hida H u n g a r y , 9th century

395 about 3500 111 145

37.5 -= 0-162 27"41 231

0"261

0"406

8.6%
56.4%

= 0.152

28.44

0.254

0.393

26 = 0.329 15-97 79 19.83 -- 0-408 12-48 48.64

0.328 0.348

0-541 0-579

D r a w n from Bocquet & Masset (1977), pp. 80-82.

FAREV~ELL TO PALEODEMOORAPHY

329

her life-time (Table 4 and ~'igure 3) (Bocquet & Masset, 1977; Bocquet, 1979). Thus we were able to put forward reasonable estimations as to those demographic p a r a meters of the graveyard populations. T h e sampling carried out to that effect is rather reassuring. I n a few cemeteries, all the infants were preserved: their n u m b e r comes into the bracket projected by our estimators, W h e n it is too low, we do not blame our estimators, but the poor preservation of infant bones . . . for instance from a score of European and North African sites we obtained a life expectancy at birth of about 25 years, a quotient of infant mortality of 250-300 per thousand, and 5-6 children born on an average from one woman (Table 5). T h a t fine coherence was quite satisfactory at first sight; as a matter of fact, it only expresses a rather disquieting reality. First, when a site deviates appreciably from that picture, we react, to a certain extent, as follows: instead of blaming our estimators, we put the blame (rightly as often as not) on a selection of the buried based on criteria related to age. W h a t then of the knowledge of demography proper? And finally, w h a t is more serious, this uniformity is too reminiscent of what happens to paleodemographers who still rely on age indicators: just as they superimpose on their cemetery populations the age structure of their reference population, we superimpose on the ancient populations the age structure of our 40 historical populations. Although less open to criticism, this procedure is of a similar nature; we come across the same thing over and over again. Indeed, starting from historical demography, we have disclosed the systematic errors; but when we try to avoid them, we are brought back, as though by a pendulum effect, to historical demography. There is no way out.

4. A Few T h i n g s we k n o w about P a l e o d e m o g r a p h y
Save unforeseen developments--unpredictable in the near future at least--it would be futile to expect to have a working knowledge of the demography of ancient populations if we start only from the estimations of ages at death. The scholars who persist in this course will only obtain artefacts; the information conveyed by the age indicators is so poor that the age distributions thus available can hardly reflect anything but r a n d o m fluctuations and errors of method. Does that mean that nothing can be said about the demography of ancient populations? scarcely anything positive indeed: we can only state what they were not. Early mortality of adults, over-mortality of women, lack of old people in those populations, whether prehistoric or medieval: all these hackneyed notions were born from the misinterpretation of data. As they are in no way vindicated, we must get rid of them. T h e only positive contributions to our knowledge of the mortality of prehistoric populations come from altogether different sources. Sacher pointed out in 1975 that a strong correlation exists among all placentalia between the brain and body weights on the one hand, and the age of sexual maturity and the longevity on the other. This correlation has been ascertained for all Primates including modern Man. Prehistoric M a n seemed to be an incomprehensible exception to the rule. Let us restore him to his place. T h e computed figures will be 17-18 for t h e sexual maturity, and 92 years on average for the life span, when not interrupted by accident; a little higher for Homo sapiens neanderthalensis, somewhat lower for Homo erectus: 15 and 78 years in the case of Sinanthropus (Cutler, 1975). Thus it would be well-founded to recognize a single mortality pattern for all Primates without excluding Hominids (Figure 4).

330

j . - P . BOC~UET-APPEL AND O. MASSET

Figure 4. Average number of deaths per annum for 100 births; both sexes. (a) Chimpanzees of Gombe Park, Tanzania (Teleki et al., 1976). (b) The French population during the decade 17401749 (Blayo, 1975). The bigger scale for they-axis is required by the difference in longevity between apes and human beings.

50

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30

20

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I0

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20

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80

In quite another field, the bulky book dedicated by N. Howell (1979) to the demography of the Dobe !Kung points, for those Bushmen hunters isolated at the far end of the desert of Kalahari, to a mortality much closer to that of the French country people of two centuries ago, than to the fabrications of paleodemographers: heavy infant death rate of about 200 per thousand before the age of l--slight over-mortality of males--mode of adult mortality after 60 or even 70. Other aspects of paleodemography that we have hardly touched upon would deserve further study. One of them is the size of the marriage circles throughout the Paleolithic. For instance, by simulating, by means of the method of Monte-Carlo, the surviving process of a small population, with, on the one hand, the male and female probabilities of death, and on the other, a fertility function (rural French people of the 18th century), Table 6 shows the behaviour of the demographic parameters per five-year periods within a century. T h e natural increase rate varies from +0.08 to --0.107; the average age at death for each period of five years fluctuates from 3 to 92.5 for males and from 0.5 to 87.5 for females. Even if this population seems to increase from 22 to 62 individuals within a century in the end (176 years) it will die out. An aleatory and unbalanced sex-ratio makes it impossible for it to survive. Figure 5 shows the age-sex pyramid at

FAREWELL

TO PALEODEMOGRAPHy

331

Table 6

F l u c t u a t i o n s o f v a r i o u s d e m o g r a p h i c p a r a m e t e r s in a s m a l l p o p u l a t i o n . (The d e a t h a n d f e r t i l i t y f u n c t i o n s a r e i d e n t i c a l to t h o s e o f t h e E u r o p e a n p e o p l e s o f the 18th c e n t u r y )

Natural increase rate 0-045 --0.044 0-046 -- 0 . 0 4 5 --0.107 0.040 0.080 --0.060 0.057 0.051 -- 0.043 -- 0.042 0 0.018 0 -- 0.046 --0.014 -- 0 . 0 4 6 --0.031 0 Mean age at death Males -87-5 --42.75 62.5 -50.17 --17.5 42.75 82.5 -3 52.5 92.5 28.5 -47.5 Females -0-5 0.5 87-5 52-5 -----60.17 37.5 3 -77.5 3 16.17 0.5 46.5 77.5

Y e a r x q5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Total number 22 22.5 21.5 21.5 28 25 25 33 34.5 39 46 47 51-5 52.5 63 64 67 64 63-5 62

Sex-ratio 1.2 1.142 1.047 1-095 1.153 1.083 1 1 0-725 0.950 1.300 1.473 1.060 1-355 1.863 1.666 1.627 1.844 1.886 t.952

the times x and x -+- 50. The age groups undergo chaotic trends which are liable to 9throw the marriageable generations out of balance, producing for instance an increase or a drastic lack of young males or females. W h a t can we infer from that? Any group of a limited size (under a few hundreds) is thratened to die out as a population through the mechanical action of mere random fluctuations. Such groups, in order to ensure their steady reproduction, must anastomosate with others by exchanging the excess of their still unmarried members. I n other words, to overcome the destroying action of the random fluctuations within a group, migratory moves are absolutely necessary from
F i g u r e 5. F l u c t a t i o n s o f t h e a g e - s e x p y r a m i d o f a s m a l l p o p u l a t i o n (see T a b l e 6). (a) n = 38.5. (b) T h e s a m e p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e y e a r x Jr 5 0 ; n = 62.

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60 ~ 50' 4O 3O 20

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332

J.-P. BOCQUET-APPEI., AND CI. MASSET

one group to the other. It is only b y regulating this inter-group m i g r a t o r y exchange that the population will be able to survive as a whole. T h e frequency o f extinction of such small sociological units must have been high during the Pleistocene, not, however, as a result of natural selection. I n the same w a y that the genetic drift was prevailing in the gene inheritance of such small h u m a n groups, their d e m o g r a p h i c behaviour was subjected to considerable r a n d o m fluctuations.
5. C o n c l u s i o n

I n spite of their diversity, such works m a y some day succeed in building up a general picture of the ancient peoples' mortality, b u t they will never point out to the demographic peculiarities o f this or that h u m a n group. Does it follow that we should give up estimating the ages at death of the skeletons we are entrusted with? T h a t would be going too far. I t is not the information provided by the age indicators which is dangerous; it is the fruitless need to m a k e t h e m say more t h a n they can. Limited as it is, the information they give is valuable, b u t from an ethnical, not a demographic point o f view (see for instance Masset, 1976, a, b). It could not possibly be uninteresting to see most skeletons from one graveyard gather in the youngest age class, or in the o l d e s t - - p r o v i d e d that the age determination be without bias. Likewise, it c a n n o t be immaterial to note that death a p p a r e n t l y prefers one sex to the other. Such information can prove highly valuable for the archaeologist, w h o is most capable of using it. I t could give him, for instance, some insight into a funerary ritual. W e remain convinced of the usefulness of thoroughly investigating the skeletons of m a n of former times to extract from t h e m all possible information. W e only bid farewell to paleodemography.

W e thank the referees for valuable criticism of an earlier draft.

References

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