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For additional information, please contact: Authors name Designation Affiliation Address Tel. no. E-mail Authors name Designation Affiliation Address Tel. no. E-mail Authors name Designation Affiliation Address Tel. no. E-mail Authors name Designation Affiliation Address Laura David Professor, UP-Marine Science Institute University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City +632-9223962 ltd_pawikan@yahoo.com Fernando Siringan Professor, UP-Marine Science Institute University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City +632-9223962 ando.msi@gmail.com Tolentino Moya Professor, Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology College of Science University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City +632-9818500 loc. 3941 Flaviana Hilario Chief, Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Science Garden Complex Agham Road, Diliman, Quezon City PHILIPPINES 110
IPCC Scenarios
http://www.enr.gov.nt.ca/_live/pages/wpPages/s oe_big_picture.aspx
MODIFIED CORONAS
Downscale modeling
GCM 300km resolution
AVERAGE % CHANGE
Quezon City
Manila
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
1860
1864
1859-64
1865-1990
Drought events reconstructed from coral 18O records (from Berdin 2010)
Coral age (ka thousand years) Duration (in years) of longest dry period
2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1cm
3 3 5 4 10 3 7
Weshouldpreparea10yr managementplan
Paleo-average precipitation for Metro Manila from lake sediment (Zamora et al., in prep)
Wetter than present
0.32
Wet
Relative Rainfall
0.28
0.24
0.2
Dry
2200
Calendar Age
Wet
Relative Rainfall
0.28
0.24
0.2
Dry
2200
Calendar Age
So?
Records tell us that there is natural variability in precipitation. We should improve our understanding of this variability so that we can develop appropriate adaptation strategies. We can utilize developed technologies and systems to prepare for drought or flood events. But we also need to install additional rain gauges upstream of population centers for flood forecasting.