Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 22, 22 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 22, 22 2013

International Commodities
Overview
Asian markets trade in green on Japanese sentiments. US existing home sales data to come on the positive side. Spanish HPI declined by 2.4 percent for the second quarter of 2013. UKs Public Sector Net Borrowing was at 10.2 billion Pounds in June.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 59.73 Prev day -0.7 0.7

as on 19 July, 2013 w-o-w 0.1 m-o-m -1.5 y-o-y -7.7

Asian equities are trading in the green today on the back of positive developments on the Japanese political front. Data from the US today is also expected to come on the e positive side and on the back of these expectations as well, markets could witness a positive momentum in todays trade. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.5 percent in last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in global markets. Further, ease in concerns from Federal Reserve regarding cut in its stimulus measures exerted downside pressure on the currency. Additionally, decline in jobless claims data and rise in manufacturing activity of US acted as a negative factor for the currency. The DX touched a weekly low of 82.48 and closed at 82.71 on Friday. On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee appreciated around 1 percent. The currency appreciated on the back of upbeat domestic and global market sentiments coupled with ease in concerns by Federal R Reserve regarding pullback in its stimulus measures. Additionally, weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of failure of bond selling by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Further, rise in inflation data and decline in industrial and manufacturing activity exerted downside pressure on the Rupee. The currency touched a weekly high of 59.04 and closed at 59.33 on Friday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.6,005.20 cro crores th ($1000.64 million) as on 19 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.66,173.10 crores ($12,500.20 million) till 19 July 2013. UKs Public Sector Net Borrowing was at 10.2 billion Pounds in June from 12.8 billion Pounds in May.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3109

-0.1 0.1

0.1

-2.1

6.8

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.96

0.1

0.0

1.0

4.4

6038.1

1.1

1.7

3.9

15.8

SENSEX

20128.4

0.9

2.3

4.7

10.1

DJIA

15543.7

0.0

0.5

5.0

20.1

S&P

1692.1

0.2

0.7

3.9

22.9

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated around 0.1 percent in the last week on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global market sentiments supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of unexpected decline in German economic ec sentiments data. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3176 and closed at 1.3142 against the dollar on Friday. Spanish House Price Index (HPI) declined by 2.4 percent for the second quarter of 2013 as against a fall of 0.8 percent in Q1 of 2013.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 22, 22 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
During the week, gold prices rose around 1 percent on account of upbeat global markets. Further, ease in concerns from Fed regarding cut in its bond buying program supported an upside in prices. Additionally, weakness in the US Dollar Index dex (DX) acted as a positive factor. However, sharp upside in prices was capped as a result of decline in SPDR gold holdings by 0.7 percent which stood at 932.46 tonnes lowest level since February 2009. In the Indian markets, prices gained around 0.4 per percent but appreciation in the Rupee restricted sharp positive movement in yellow metal prices. Gold holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust fell further by 0.7 percent in the last week to 932.46 tonnes from previous 969.5 tonnes on 25th June13. The holdings have fallen to the lowest level since February 2009. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1284.5 Prev. day 0.7 as on 19 July, 2013 WoW 0.0 MoM -6.1 YoY -18.7

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

26550.0

-0.2

-0.2

-5.3

-9.1

1283.3

-1.1

-0.1

-6.1

-19.0

$/oz

1284.6

0.5

0.5

-0.5

-18.2

Rs /10 gms

26658.0

1.2

-0.1

-4.7

-8.6

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 19.3 40920.0 Prev day 0.5 -1.6

as on 19 July, 2013 WoW -3.8 -2.3 MoM -10.6 -9.5 YoY -29.0 -22.7

Silver
Taking cues from fall in base metals prices, Spot silver prices fell around 2 percent in prior week. Further, weak economic data from China and expectations of slow growth exerted downside pressure on prices. However, sharp fall in prices was prevented as a result of rise in gold prices along with weakness in the DX. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee added more downside pressure on prices and commodity slipped around 2.4 percent on the MCX. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust rose around 1 percent to 10,284.02 th tonnes for the week ending on 19 July 2013 as compared to 10,185 th tonnes as on 12 July 2013.

$/oz $/ oz

1949.0 19.4

-1.7 -0.2

-1.8 -2.0

-10.6 -2.9

-29.0 -28.7

Rs / kg

40473.0

0.8

-2.9

-8.1

-23.2

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Outlook
Precious metal prices are expected to trade on a higher note in todays trade, taking cues from weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global markets arkets sentiments will support an upside in the prices. However, decline in SPDR holdings will cap sharp gains in prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will prevent upside movement in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for July 22, 2013 Support 1309/1304 26600/26500 19.70/19.50 40000/39700 Resistance 1329/1338 27000/27200 20.20/20.50 41000/41500
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 22, 22 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices rose around 2 percent in the last week taking cues from declining trend in inventories coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, statement from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke regarding no intentions of immediate cut back in stimulus measu measures supported an upside in prices. Additionally, decline in jobless claims data and rise in manufacturing index of US acted as a positive factor. Also, political turmoil in Egypt acted as a positive factor for prices. On the domestic bourses, MCX crude July contract gained by 2 percent in the prior week. Crude oil prices touched a weekly high of Rs.6535/bbl and closed at Rs.6465/bbl on Friday. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Aug 13) ICE Brent Crude (Aug13) MCX Crude (July 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 110.4 108.0 Prev. day -0.3 1.5 WoW 1.5 3.0 as on 19 July, 2013 MoM 4.7 13.2 YoY 1.7 20.2

$/bbl

108.7

0.1

0.9

2.5

0.8

Rs/bbl

6463.0

2.7

2.9

11.8

26.1

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (July 13)

as on 19 July, 2013

Natural Gas
On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices declined around 1 percent. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on the back of less than expected rise in US natural gas inventories. Further, expectations of warm weather conditions will lead to increase in gas demand for air conditioning purpose prevented fall in prices. Weakness in the DX cushioned sharp fall in prices. . Gas prices touched a weekly low of $3.546/mmbtu and closed at $3.771/mmbtu /mmbtu in last trade of the week. On the domestic front, prices dropped around 1.4 percent on account of appreciation in the Rupee and d closed at Rs.225.70 Rs.225.70/mmbtu after touching a weekly low of Rs.212.50/mmbtu. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a positive note on the back of declining trend in API and US crude oil inventories. Additionally, weakness in the DX will support an upside in prices. Further, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments will lead to expectations of increase in demand for the fuel will act as a positive factor. In the Indian markets, appreciation preciation in the Rupee will cap sharp gains in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude July13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for July 22, 2013 Support 107.50/106.70 6380/6330 Resistance 109.20/110.0 6480/6530

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.771 225.7

Prev. day -1.0 -1.4

WoW 3.49 2.92

MoM -4.46 -3.38

YoY 23.88 36.79

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 22, 22 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals complex traded on a negative note in the last week as a result of slow economic growth in Chinese economy and expectations of slowdown in future affecting the demand for the metals. Further, decline in Building Permits and Housing Starts da data from US exerted downside pressure on prices. Additionally, rise in LME inventories apart from Copper acted as a negative factor. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on the back of upbeat global markets after ease in pullback of stimulus measures by the Federal Reserve. Weakness in the DX along with decline in jobless claims and rise in manufacturing data of US restricted downside in prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure on prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (July13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (July13) LME Lead $/tonne 2043.8 0.5 -1.3 -3.0 6.1 Rs /kg 834.7 0.9 1.9 0.3 -6.5 $/tonne 14026.0 0.5 2.8 -0.7 -13.1 Rs /kg 105.9 0.5 -2.0 -0.6 -0.1 $/tonne 1804.5 0.0 -1.5 -2.0 -7.0 Rs/kg 415.6 0.7 -1.8 1.3 -3.6 $/tonne Last 6909.0 Prev. day 0.1 as on 19 July, 2013 WoW -1.3 MoM -11.9 YoY -11.1

Copper
Copper prices traded on a negative note in the last week and declined around 0.5 percent on the back of slow economic growth i in China and expectation decline in demand for the metal from the country. Further, decline in Building Permits and Housing Starts data exerted downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of decline in LME and Shanghai copper inventories. Further, weakness in the DX, upbeat global markets along with ease in pullback of stimulus measures by the Fed prevented sharp fall in prices. The red metal touched a weekly low of $6850/tonne and closed at $6920/tonne in last trade of the week. On the domestic front, prices slipped 1.3 percent on account of appreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs. 414.25/kg on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs.411.1/kg. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metals group to tr trade higher on the back of upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor. Additionally, expectations of favorable existing home sales data from US will support an upside in prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp upside in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc July 13 MCX Lead July 13 MCX Aluminum July13 MCX Nickel July 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for July 22, 201 2013 Support 412/408 108.50/107.50 120.0/119.0 105.80/105.0 833/827 Resistance 418/421 110.50/111.50 121.50/122.50 107.50/108.50 845/852

(3 month) MCX Lead (July13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (July13)
Source: Reuters

Rs /kg

121.5

1.1

-1.9

-1.7

14.6

$/tonne

1861.0

0.0

-2.0

0.2

-1.4

Rs /kg

109.6

0.5

-2.6

1.6

5.4

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 19th July 638,325 5,477,725 196,062 1,071,625 196,475 18th July 640,600 5,479,550 196,170 1,075,625 196,475 Actual Change -2,275 -1,825 -108 -4,000 0 (%) Change -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.0
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 22, 22 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Existing Home Sales

US

7:30pm

5.27M

5.18M

High

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