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Manufacturing System Engineering and Management California State University, Northridge

MSE 505: Engineering Decision / Risk Analysis (3 Units) Thursday 19:00-21:45, EA 1115, Fall 2003 Instructor: Office: Office Hours: E-mail address: Department office: Required Text: Hamid Gholami EA 1336 18:00-19:00, Thursday. EN 2407; (818) 677-2166 Robert T. Clemen & Terence Reilly-" Making Hard Decisions with Decision Tools."Duxbury Press, Thomson Learning, Pacific Grove, California, 2001, ISBN 0-534-36597-3

Catalog Description: An introduction to design and project evaluation methods in the context of manufacturing engineering problem situations. Provides an organizing framework for dealing with unstructured problems for planning the synthesis, analysis, and evaluations of solutions. Includes introductory material on engineering decision/risk analysis, reliability and maintainability as design parameters, and technological forecasting. Course Description: The primary objective of this course is to make you acquainted with a set of tools for decision making under uncertainty known under the umbrella name of Decision Analysis and how these relate to building decision support systems. You will learn in this course: How to use simple techniques for improving your own intuitive judgment and decision-making under uncertainty; as well as how to apply the tools of decision analysis to aid decision-making under uncertainty. How to apply previous knowledge of math, probability, statistics, economics, and design and systems engineering to decision making, as well as how to design and conduct experiments for eliciting preferences and subjective probabilities from Decision Makers. How to engage in independent learning and to apply this ability to aspects of the engineering design process. How to understand the relationship between decision and risk analysis and contemporary and social issues.

Basis of Grading:

20%-Homework Assignment 40%-Two Exams, 20% each, open book and notes, calculator 30%-Group projects 10%-Active participation A=90-100; B=80-89; C=70-79; D=60-69; F=0-59 Plus/Mines grading will be used

Lecture & Tentative Schedule: Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Topic Introduction (Ch.1) Elements of Decision Problems (Ch.2) Structuring Decisions (Ch.3) Con't. Structuring Decisions Making Choices (Ch.4) Sensitivity Analysis (Ch.5) Probability Basics (Ch.7) Mid-Term Exam Subjective Probability (Ch.8) Theoretical Probability Models (Ch.9) Using Data (Ch.10) Risk Attitudes (Ch.13) Value of Information (Ch.12) Utility Axioms, Paradoxes, and Implication (Ch.14) Final Exam



7. 8.

Class members are expected to attend class sessions and to be prompt Class members are responsible for material reading assignments, class presentations, and discussion questions Class presentations are not replicates of reading assignments Tardy submissions and plagiarism are unacceptable Class members will be considerate and respectful of their colleagues. Withdrawing from this course should be done during the first two weeks of the semester. Please note that failure to officially drop this class results in a grade of U (an equivalent of an F on your transcript). See FAQs at for additional information regarding withdraws. Graduate students are advised to ensure that they are either in classified status or making progress toward achieving that status. See FAQs at

HOMEWORK: 1. Problems will typically be assigned at each class session and will form the basis for the examinations. 2. HW should be worked in a group of 2 students/group; one set (the original) should be turned in per group; all student need to have a copy of the HW with them in class to be able to follow the solution. 3. Use 8.5 x 11 paper, no spiral notebook fringe; one side of paper only; staple pages together in upper-left hand corner; please write the name of your partner/s and course number on each page. 4. Tardy submissions are unacceptable. 5. Professional-level work is expected. Differences of opinion on course materials is expected and encouraged. Some of the material is quantitative, and will be graded straightforwardly.