Pakistan, Russia Converging on Afghan Agenda Usman Ghani

Russia is once again on its way to glory. Russia has undoubtedly established itself as a strategic regional power which is steadily ascending under the vibrant headship of President Vladimir Putin. Having a population of 142 million and a growing economy at the rate of 7 percent annually since 2003, it is likely to regain its lost glory in the very near future. Russia today is the worlds largest gas exporter and the second leading oil exporter following Saudi Arabia. A heavy industrial base provides a bed rock for future technological advancement for Russia.

Pakistan and Russia have been steadily mending fences with each other for the last few years now, through mutual as well as multilateral contacts at the highest levels. With the present Pakistan Peoples Party government coming into power in 2008 the process has gained considerable momentum and the two sides have taken significant initiatives to promote economic, security and energy cooperation projects along with regional connectivity and security through multilateral and mutual frameworks.

Pakistans observer state status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), fully endorsed by Russia, has helped create opportunities for Pakistani top leadership to interact with top Russian leadership. The June 2009, SCO Summit provided such an opportunity when President Asif Ali Zardari met with the then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev in Yaketerinburg. It is an encouraging sign that the two Presidents have met six times in the past three years. The present warming of relations has come after a very long pause in Pakistan-Russia relations. Previously only during Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhuttos government a major landmark project of Pakistan Steel Mill was established by the Russian government.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Viktorovich Lavrov, recent visit to Pakistan in October this year is part of the intense diplomatic efforts to bring Pakistan and Russia closer together. Despite the fact that the two countries have been estranged strangers in the past, the new international compulsions are compelling the two countries to embrace each other with renowned trust and enriching cooperation. The Russian Foreign Minister visited Pakistan after a scheduled visit by the Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin was postponed due to his busy schedule in Russia. President Putins visit was primarily intended for the Afghan summit in Islamabad.

Recent regional developments especially the Afghan situation has helped pave the way for a possible profound Pakistan-Russia cooperation in regional affairs. Pakistan and Russia both are wary of the American and Coalition forces policies in Afghanistan. Russian endorsement of peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan which is being proposed by Pakistan is a significant diplomatic success. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, during his visit firmly affirmed that Russia is against any resolution of Afghanistan problem that is forced from outside and is not Afghan-owned and Afghan-driven. He stressed that Russia would support an indigenous peace and reconciliation process owned and led by the Afghans. Pakistan since long has also been stressing for an Afghan led reconciliation process inclusive of all ethnic groups for a stable and peaceful Afghanistan. The Russian stance on Afghanistan as expressed by Foreign Minister Lavrov is an apparent confirmation of the greater geostrategic convergence between Pakistan and Russia on regional issues. Likewise, Russian condemnation of drone attacks and military strikes on Pakistani security forces along the Afghan border has helped strengthened the Pakistan-Russia ensuing trust.

According to Russian Ambassador in Pakistan, H.E Andrey Sergeevich, Russia attaches great importance to cooperation with Pakistan in the sphere of Afghan settlement. As the instability in Afghanistan is a mutual concern for both Pakistan and Russia. Reconciliation and reconstruction in Afghanistan is not achievable without the

active involvement of states contiguous to it, primarily Pakistan, since many problems of these two countries are very much intertwined. Russia and Pakistan have a broad understanding that to settle the Afghan problem the prerogative should not be exclusively external led. Participation of the regional community in the process is essential. Undoubtedly, the Afghans themselves have to make a major and crucial contribution to the arrangement by strengthening the state that would preserve goodneighborly affairs with the circumjacent countries and carry out the policy of neutralism while not permitting any outside meddling in its domestic affairs. There is no disbelief that it is essential to warranty full autonomy and territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan.

Though the Russians have their own perspective on the issues relating to militancy, terrorism and regional peace and security they still share Pakistans concerns on Afghanistan. The Russians are fretful concerning the scenario of Afghanistan once again coming under the Taliban. The Russians also oppose the permanent military presence of the United States in Afghanistan but encourage their presence until the Afghans agree on some sort of agreement between themselves for the security and stability of the war-torn country. Because of these critical concerns the Russians are helping ISAF in Afghanistan by allowing their supplies through Russian territory.

Cordial affairs with Russia go well with Pakistans strategic interests as it seeks to broaden its foreign policy horizon. Pakistan desires a dependable ally to congregate its economic, energy and defense requirements, mainly in view of continuing problems with the United States of America that has been the leading supplier in the past.

There are still some concerns that can negatively affect the recent warming of relations between Pakistan and Russia. The Russians are seriously concerned as regards to the security and law and order condition in Pakistan, predominantly the existence of a great number of foreign militants from Central Asia and Chechnya, living in the Tribal belt of Pakistan. According to media reports during the meeting on the sidelines of the SCO summit at Yaketerinburg in June 2009 between President Zardari

and President Medvedev, the latter was reported to have called for the purging of safe havens of terrorists in Pakistans tribal areas. Pakistan and Russia are surely entering a new era. Pakistan must remain mindful of its obligation to strengthen its ties with Russia, the menace of terrorism and extremism is the biggest hurdle in any meaningful cooperation.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)