Energy Crisis Is There A Way Out???

Aymen Ijaz Scorching summer heat coupled with excruciating 18-20 hours scheduled and unscheduled power outages have brought the protesters onto the streets all across the country. The energy crisis which sprouted in 2007-2008, turning into a serious problem in 2009-2010 hampering the state economy last year, has hit again this year with the peak demand of 17,000 MW of electricity. Presently, the hand production is only 9,000-10,000 MW leading to the average shortfall of around 7000MW, thus resulting in immense load shedding in rural and urban areas. Few of the genuine reasons behind such shortages firstly include: low hydro power availability due to drop in power production at Tarbela, where only 9 out of 15 units are operational because of dead drop in water level. Second from 1990s to 2005 a price hike of 30% to 70% in the furnace oil (mainly used fuel source to produce thermal electricity) and lastly the governments inability to pay the fuel cost to the Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and rental plants creating a high circular debt of around Rs. 400 billion. Pakistan State Oil (PSO) made 40% cuts in supplying furnace oil to generation companies like Hubco, Kot Addu Power Company and the Karachi Electric Supply Company (KESC) which resulted in decline in Wapdas thermal power production. The government has recently provided the PSO with Rs.3 billion to relieve the circular debt and continue the FO supplies to the generating companies. The National Energy Conference held in April 2012, dashed down public hopes which was nothing but an opportunity for the ill fated politicians to whine and blame the previous governments for their false energy policies. However, focus should be on energy generation than on energy preservation. Ironically, the nation is perturbed with energy crisis while our leaders have their own agendas to work on. Statements of our leaders are depressing enough to add up in chaotic situation, for instance, Punjab Chief Minister Muhammad Shahbaz Sharif recently said that the energy crisis was the result of plundering of corrupt leaders and any dent in Punjab economy due to energy crisis could result in a major blow to entire economy. According to him, Punjab contributes an overwhelming share in the GDP. Similarly, Pakistan Muslim League (Q) leader Chaudhry Parvez Elahi has said that so-called Khadam-e-A'ala was responsible for the electricity load shedding in Punjab. On a serious note, by opposing the Shujat's formula in the Energy Conference, Punjab CM Shahbaz Sharif has clearly shown insincerity with the people of Punjab. Tehrik-e-Insaaf protesters are also busy in carrying out rallies against the government negligence towards ongoing energy crisis and power outrages in the country.

Realistically speaking, energy crisis is not an incurable problem. Number of foreign assistance has been offered to Pakistan to overcome this ever increasing problem of power crisis. The World Bank has allocated $1.8 billion for Pakistan's development projects and has agreed to finance construction of a multi-year Dasu dam, with a 1500 MW power generation capacity, in Kohistan area on Indus River. In the line of same crisis, there is an Iranian offer of 1,000 MW of energy supply. Later the government is ready to make a deal with Iran to increase this supply to 4000 MW. Two significant Gas Pipeline projects like TAPI (Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and India) and IranPakistan (IP) are under way for energy production in Pakistan. Pak-India Energy Trade is a positive initiative through which Pakistan can get 35% cheaper oil. Pakistan has potential for trade with Brazil, one of the worlds largest hydel powers generating country, in the field of alternative energy and hydel power generation. The US funded $250 million project, Punjab Irrigated Agriculture Productivity Improvement Program Project ((PIPIPP) is aimed at maximum productivity of energy out of irrigation water. Pakistan is collaborating with China particularly in civilian nuclear energy and hydro power generation projects. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani at Boao Forum for Asia called for setting up an umbrella of "Pakistan-China Power Cooperation". In Sindh, 1200 MW imported Coal Fired Project and 250 MW Wind Power Project are ready to be launched with Malaysian assistance to meet Pakistans future electricity needs. Similarly, a South Korean firm has also pledged to provide 300 megawatts of electricity by solar means. At Domestic level, three mega power projects have been approved by the government in order to generate electricity in Khyber Pakhtunkhuwah. Sarhad Hydel Development Organization (SHYDO) has recently approved 36.6 Megawatt power project at Daral Khwar, 153 megawatt power projects in Mataltan (Swat) and 84 megawatt projects at Lavi (Chitral). Another hydropower project of Tarbela IV will enhance Pakistans energy security by adding low-carbon for power generation. According to the sources, the Punjab government is also planning to start a short-term plan of generating 5,000 megawatts of additional electricity by operating Nandipur Thermal Power Project, and utilizing sugarcane waste. The government should provide sufficient funds for the Dasu power project, Diamer Bhasha dam, Munda dam, Gomal Zam, Satpara power project and Kurram Tungi dam to generate electricity. The Finance Minister, Abdul Hafeez Sheikh, has promised the release of Rs 900 million for the Thar Coal gasification project to initially produce 100MW of electricity through coal conversion into gas. Similarly, the Thar coal reserves have the potential to generate 50,000 megawatts of electricity. Pakistan also possesses a large solar energy potential as it lies on global solar energy belt. The Ministry of Water and Power has issued nine Letters of Intent (LOIs) to different Solar Independent Power Producers (IPPs) to produce cumulative capacity of 228 MW electricity through solar projects established at different places in Punjab, Southern Punjab, Sindh, Cholistan, Taxila, Kasur, District Thatta and Lodhran. At Public level, steps should be taken to conserve electricity by using innovative heating and cooking systems having high potential for saving energy. Usage of lights with solar photovoltaic technology coupled with light-emitting diode (LED) could be a

viable option to deal with dilemma of energy shortfall. One of the noted US scientists Dr Raziq Yaqub has called for modernizing the existing power grid in Pakistan to help meet the countrys growing energy demand. The Pakistan Council for Renewable Energy (PCRET) has already taken initiative to search the potential of renewable energy sources for commercial and household use. In the back drop of all such expected productive measures and development projects in the energy sector by the government at foreign, domestic and public level, the prevalent pessimism and frustration could be overcome regarding energy crisis. Political will and viable National Energy policy are the best alternative solutions to bottle the genie of this lingering energy crisis. The practical implementation of all the above mentioned initiatives is the only imperative solution to find a way out of this energy crisis which seems to be getting intense with each passing day.

The writer works for Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI)