Stat 212 -- Sample Midterm Spring 2013

Problem 1: Lutefisk. More than 12,000 students, alumni and friends attend the sold out performances of the St. Olaf Christmas Festival each year. Part of that journey to the Hill is to partake in the Norwegian delicacy of lutefisk served in drawn butter and cream sauce. It is known that 20% of Norwegians eat lutefisk around Christmas. To determine whether or not more St. Olaf Christmas Festival attendees eat lutefisk than Norwegians, sociology students sought to estimate the proportion of concert goers who choose to eat lutefisk. Bon Appetit collected data on 200 diners from the Friday night meal time and documented that 50 took at least some lutefisk on their trays. 1. [3] Identify the parameter of interest and define in words.

2. [3] Identify the type of study (Circle one) Experimental observational

3. [3] State the null and alternative hypotheses in symbols.

4. [3] State a conclusion for your hypothesis test in (3), supporting your conclusion with a test statistic and p-value from the R code below.
> iscamonepropztest(obs=50,n=200,hyp=.20,alt="_________",conf.level=.95) One Proportion z test Data: observed successes = 50, sample size = 200, sample proportion = 0.25 z-statistic: 1.77 p-value: 0.03855 95 % Confidence interval for pi: ( 0.1899886 ,

0.3100114 )

Stat 212 -- Sample Midterm Spring 2013

5. [3] Sketch the sampling distribution of

when the null hypothesis is true, and shade the area )

corresponding to your p-value from (4). ). (Note:

Problem 2: Text reminders and vaccines. In a recent study researchers investigated the effect of text messaging, compared to traditional phone call reminders, on influenza vaccination (Stockwell et al JAMA 2012). 7574 children and adolescents aged 6 months to 18 years, who had not received influenza vaccine prior to the intervention start date, participated in the study. Children were sampled from patients receiving care at 4 community-based clinics in the United States during the 2010-2011 influenza season. Parents of children were randomly assigned to receive either the intervention (text message) or traditional automated telephone reminder. Those in the intervention group received up to 5 weekly text messages that included instructions for the local flu-shot clinics. Receipt of an influenza vaccine does was recorded. At the end of the study period a higher proportion of children and adolescents in the intervention group (43.6%; n = 1653) compared with the usual care group (39.9%; n = 1509) had received influenza vaccine (difference, 3.7% [95% CI, 1.5%-5.9%]). 1. [3] Identify the observational unit, the explanatory variable and the response variable.

2. [3] What can you say about the p-value for this study? Justify your response citing appropriate information.

3. [3] Explain the reasoning that allows us to conclude that text message reminders cause a difference in vaccination rates.

Stat 212 -- Sample Midterm Spring 2013

4. [3] Can these results be generalized to a broader population? Why or why not? If so, to what population?

Problem 3: Lying over email. Are people more likely to lie with e-mail than with pencil and paper? A study reported at a meeting of the Academy of Management involved 48 graduate students studying business at a particular university who participated in a bargaining game (Naquin, Kurtzberg, & Belkin, 2008). The response variable of interest was whether the person misrepresented (lied about) the size of the pot when negotiating with another player. Some of the participants were randomly assigned to use email for their communication, whereas others used paper and pencil. It turned out that 24 of 26 who used e-mail were guilty of lying about the pot size, compared to 14 of 22 who used paper and pencil. 1. [3] Summarize study results in a properly-labeled 2x2 table, with columns determined by the explanatory variable.

2. [3] State the null and alternative hypotheses (in symbols and words) youd use to test whether people are more likely to lie with e-mail than pencil and paper.

3. [3] Explain (in detail) how you could use red and black cards to simulate a p-value in (2). Be sure to describe any underlying assumptions.

Stat 212 -- Sample Midterm Spring 2013

4. [3] Use the R code below to report and interpret a 95% confidence interval in the context of the study.
> iscamtwopropztest(observed1=24,n1=26,observed2=14,n2=22, + hyp=0,alt="greater",conf.level=.95) Two Proportion z test Group1: observed successes = 24, sample size = 26, sample proportion = 0.9231 Group2: observed successes = 14, sample size = 22, sample proportion = 0.6364 z-statistic: 2.44 95 % Confidence interval for pi1-pi2: ( 0.06110651 , p-value: 0.007344 0.5122935 )

5. [3] The formula for the standard error in the confidence interval in (4) contains formula for the standard error in a z-test for two proportions only contains the logic behind this difference.

and

, while the

. In one sentence, explain

6. [8] True or False? Evaluate each of the following statements if it is true, give one sentence explaining why; if it is false, explain why or rewrite the statement to make it true. ____ a) A p-value of .007 would imply that theres a 0.7% chance that theres no difference between email and paper communication.

____

b) If each cell in the two-way table in (1) were doubled, the p-value would decrease.

____ c) If we made a Type II error, we would falsely claim that email communication leads to more lying.

____ d) The difference in sample proportions (.92-.64=.28) will fall in our 95% confidence interval from (4) 95% of the time.