Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 23, 23 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 23, 23 2013

International Commodities
Overview
Asian markets trading at highest level in the last two months. Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.7 percent in yesterdays trade. US Existing Home Sales declined to 5.08 million in the last month month. LME Copper inventories fell 0.6 percent in yesterdays trading session.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 59.72 Prev day -0.7 0.7

as on 22 July, 2013 w-o-w 0.1 m-o-m -0.3 y-o-y -6.4

Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of decline in US existing home sales data which eased concerns that Fed will pullback i its stimulus measures within two months. US Existing Home Sales declined to 5.08 million in June as against a rise of 5.14 million a month ago. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.5 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in global markets which led to fall in demand for the currency. Further, declined in US existing home sales data eased concerns from Federal Reserve regar regarding cut in its stimulus measures exerted downside pressure on the currency. day low of 82.13 and closed at 82.32 on The DX touched an intra-day Monday. The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated d on the back of statement from government regarding not considering issuing a sale of sovereign bonds to offshore investors at present. This led to dampening of hopes for dollar inflows and exerting downside pressure on the currency. ide in the currency was cushioned as a result of However, sharp downside weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat domestic market sentiments. Further, expectations that Indian government aims to attract dollar inflow from non-resident resident citizens (NRI) or allow some companies to raise debt abroad provided respite to fall in the Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 59.73 and closed at 59.72 on Monday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.5,605.60 crores nd ($933.80 million) as on 22 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital nd inflows stood at Rs.66,572.80 crores ($12,567 million) till 22 July 2013. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stepped in again to tighten gold imports by making them dependent on exports volume which is done to reduce the record high current deficit of the country. The central bank said importers have to retain 20 percent of gold imports in customs warehouses and thereafter will only be able to buy more after their exports are equivalent to 75 percent of the retained amount which has been shipped.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3183

0.3

0.9

-0.3

8.8

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.32

-0.5 0.5

-1.1

-0.4

3.6

6031.8

0.0

0.0

6.6

15.1

SENSEX

20159.1

0.0

0.6

7.7

10.2

DJIA

15545.6

0.0

0.4

6.0

21.2

S&P

59.72

-0.7 0.7

0.1

-0.3

-6.4

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated around 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global market sentiments supported an upside in the currency. day high of 1.3218 and closed at The Euro touched an intra-day 1.3183 against the dollar on Monday. Mon

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 23, 23 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices increased around 3 percent yesterday on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global market sentiments supported an upside in prices. However, sharp upside in gold prices was capped on account of decline in SPDR gold holdings to 931.26 tonnes which is at lowest level since February 2009. The yellow metal touched an intra intra-day high of $1338.91/oz and closed at $1335/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices gained around 3.2 percent on account of depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.27,560/10 gms after touching an intra-day day high of Rs.27,620/10 gms on Monday Monday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1335.0 Prev. day 3.0 as on 22 July, 2013 WoW 4.1 MoM 4.5 YoY -15.3

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

27180.0

1.8

1.8

0.7

-7.4

1327.0

2.4

3.3

2.7

-15.6

$/oz

1293.3

0.7

0.7

1.3

-18.2

Rs /10 gms

27560.0

3.2

4.2

2.6

-6.4

Silver
Market Highlights - Silver (% change) Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in base metals complex, Spot silver prices gained around 5.4 percent in yesterdays trading session. Further, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor for prices. The white metal touched an intra-day day high of $20.60/oz and closed at $20.50 in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices rose around 4.7 percent and closed at Rs.42,234/kg after touching an intra-day day high of Rs.42,444 on Monday Monday.
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 20.5 41835.0 Prev day 5.4 2.0

Source: Reuters

as on 22 July, 2013 WoW 3.2 -0.2 MoM 4.9 -3.1 YoY -23.9 -20.7

$/oz $/ oz

1995.0 19.4

2.7 0.4

0.7 -1.9

-1.4 -0.2

-26.0 -28.7

Outlook
Precious metal prices are expected to trade on a higher note in todays trade, taking cues from weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global markets sentiments will support port an upside in the prices. However, decline in SPDR holdings will cap sharp gains in prices. Also, steps taken by the RBI to tighten gold imports will act as a positive factor for prices in near term on the domestic markets. Appreciation ppreciation in the Rupee will ll prevent upside movement in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for July 23, 2013 Support 1324/1315 27300/27100 20.20/19.95 41700/41300 Resistance 1344/1351 27700/27850 20.70/20.90 42700/43100

Rs / kg

42234.0

4.7

3.1

2.2

-20.2

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 23, 23 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined more than 1 percent in the yesterdays trade taking cues from decline in US existing home sales data which led to expectations of fall in demand for the fuel. However, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in prices. Further, ease in concerns from the Federal Reserve in the last week regarding cut in it stimulus measures prevented downside in prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day day low of $106.43/bbl and closed at $106.90/oz in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, MCX crude July contract declined by 1.5 and crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of Rs.6,356 ,356/bbl and closed at Rs.6,367/bbl on Monday. API Inventories Forecast The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 2.4 million barrels for the week ending on 19th July 2013. lion barrels and distillate Gasoline stocks are expected to gain by 1.2 million inventories are expected to shoot up by 1.8 million barrels for the same week. Outlook day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a From the intra-day positive note on the back of expectations of decline in API crude oil inventories. Additionally, weakness in the DX will support an upside in prices. Further, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments will lead to expectations of increase in demand for the fuel will act as a positive factor. n the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will cap sharp gains in In prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude July13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for July 23, 2013 Support 106.20/105 6410/6340 Resistance 108/108.90 6520/6570
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Aug 13) ICE Brent Crude (Aug13) MCX Crude (July 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 109.9 106.9 Prev. day -0.5 -1.1 WoW -0.2 0.6

as on 22 July, 2013 MoM 6.7 12.3 YoY 5.0 16.9

$/bbl

108.2

0.1

-0.9

5.9

4.7

Rs/bbl

6367.0

-1.5

1.3

11.1

26.7

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (July 13)

as on 22 July, 2013

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.705 219

Prev. day -1.8 -3.0

WoW 0.90 2.38

MoM -2.68 -3.52

YoY 19.83 29.66

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 23, 23 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals complex traded on a positive note in the yesterdays trade as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor for prices. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on the back of decline in existing home sales data from US. Additionally, mixed LME inventories scenario prevented positive movement in prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (July13) LME Nickel (3 month) $/tonne 14125.0 -0.4 4.3 3.1 -9.5 Rs /kg 107.5 0.9 1.9 1.7 2.9 $/tonne 1842.0 0.9 1.8 2.3 -1.8 Rs/kg 419.8 1.3 1.4 3.7 0.0 $/tonne Last 7010.0 Prev. day 1.3 as on 22 July, 2013 WoW 1.0 MoM -10.7 YoY -5.7

Copper
Copper prices traded on a positive note in the yesterdays trade and increased around 1.3 percent on the back of decline in LME copper inventories around 0.6 percent which stood at 634,650 tonnes tonnes. Further, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global markets supported an upside in prices. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of decline in US existing home sales data. The red metal touched an intra intra-day high of $7053/tonne and closed at $7010/tonne in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices rose 1.3 percent and closed at Rs. 419.80/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs.4 Rs.422.50/kg on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metals group to trade higher on the back of upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor. Additionally, ease in concerns from Federal Reserve in last week regarding pullback in its stimulus measures will support an upside in prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp upside in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc July 13 MCX Lead July 13 MCX Aluminum July13 MCX Nickel July 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for July 23, 201 2013 Support 416/412 109/108 121/120 106.80/106 832/827 Resistance 423/425 110.80/111.80 122.80/123.50 108.20/109 845/852

MCX Nickel (July13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (July13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (July13)

Rs /kg

837.2

-0.3

4.4

2.0

-4.7

$/tonne

2055.3

0.6

0.0

1.4

10.2

Rs /kg

121.8

0.7

0.3

0.8

16.5

$/tonne

1874.0

0.5

-0.8

2.1

3.3

Rs /kg

109.9

0.5

-0.6

1.9

7.9

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 22nd July 634,650 5,469,150 199,782 1,067,625 197,975 19th July 638,325 5,477,725 196,062 1,071,625 196,475 Actual Change -3,675 -8,575 3,720 -4,000 1,500 (%) Change -0.6 -0.2 1.9 -0.4 0.8
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 23, 23 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

BBA Mortgage Approvals

UK

2:00pm

38.5K

36.1K

Medium

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