Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Pulses import bill to decline 25% on higher domestic output
Indias pulses import bill is set to decline 25 per cent this financial year due to a record domestic output and an unabated fall in prices globally. The fall in import will save around $730 million (Rs 4,350 crore) outflow. Pulses import hit a record 4.02 million tonnes (mt) in 2012-13, an increase of 15 per cent from 3.5 mt the previous year. But the import bill shot up 41.34 per cent to Rs 13,354 crore in 2012-13 from Rs 9,448 crore in the previous year. The sharp increase in the bill was attributed to a staggering 13.6 per cent depreciation in the rupee against the dollar. This year, however, import is set to decline by a minimum 0.50 mt or 13 per cent of the entire import quantity on bumper output estimates from local sources. Coupled with that, pulses prices have fallen by at least 15 per cent since April. Accumulatively, this will lower pulses import bill by 25 per cent, said Bimal Kothari, vice-president of India Pulses and Grains Association (IPGA) and owner of Pancham International Ltd, a Mumbaibased pulses importer. (Source: Business Standard)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 23, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

20302 6078 59.76 107.23 1335.1

0.71 0.76 0.06 0.30 -0.10

2.27 2.06 0.78 1.16 3.43

8.14 7.24 0.82 14.45 3.37

20.29 18.75 6.85 21.66 -15.34

.Source: Reuters

Sugar Glut Easing as Bear Market Spurs Supply Cuts

Sugar production is poised to contract for the first time in five years just as consumption expands to a record, diminishing a global glut that has kept prices in a bear market since September. Production will drop 1.8 percent to 178.5 million metric tons in the marketing year starting Oct. 1 as demand rises 1.9 percent to 175 million tons, the London-based International Sugar Organization estimates. Futures will rally as much as 13 percent to 18.5 cents a pound by March, the end of the season in Brazil, the biggest producer. Sugar plunged 54 percent since reaching a three-decade high in 2011 as growers from Brazil to Australia and Mexico raised output. The anticipated drop in production contrasts with analysts estimates for record supply of soybeans, wheat, corn and rice. (Source:
Bloomberg)

Onion prices more than double to Rs 36-40/kg in metros

Onion prices have more than doubled to Rs 36-40 per kg in retail markets of metro cities in last one year, adding to the woes of consumers already burdened with overall price rise. Currently, onion is being sold at Rs 36 per kg in retail markets of the national capital and Rs 32 per kg each in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai, according to the Consumer Affairs Ministry that monitors prices of 22 essential food items. In some markets, onion is being sold at more than Rs 40 per kg depending on localities and quality, traders said. (Source: Business Standard)

Maharashtra completes kharif sowing on 84 per cent of targeted area

Kharif sowing in Maharashtra has been completed on 84% of the targeted area. Area under soyabean, pulses and cereals is set to increase while area under cotton is expected to decline. The state has received 148.8 % of the average rainfall till July 22. Of the 355 taluks in the state, 317 have received more than 100% rainfall. Kharif cereals sowing has been completed on 29.68 lakh hectare area as on July 22, as compared to 23.11 lakh hectare on the same day last year. Pulses sowing has been completed on 18.08 lakh hectare, which is more by one lakh hectare over the previous year. Area under moong and urad has increase slightly. Oilseeds have gained acreage this year mainly due to diversion of area from cotton to soyabean. Oilseeds have been sown on 39.55 lakh hectare as against 31.12 lakh hectare during comparable period of last year.
(Source: Economic Times)

Ban on onion exports won't impact domestic prices

A section of the Department of Agriculture feels export curbs on onions would have little impact on the prices of the commodity, as the price of Indian onions is more than prices abroad and exports have shown a slowing trend. Officials said Indian onions were priced at about $480 a tonne in the international markets, while prices of onions from Pakistan and China stood at $410 a tonne and $300-350 a tonne, respectively. Therefore, to expect an export ban on onions to have a major impact on domestic prices is unreasonable, as exports have already slowed because of the price differential, said a senior official. In June, India exported about 1,50,512 tonnes of onions, a 23 per cent fall compared to May and a 9.01 per cent fall compared to April. In the April-June period, onion exports stood at 5,11,616 tonnes, worth Rs 776.47 crore, around 1.09 per cent less than in the corresponding period last year. In 2012-13, exports stood at 1.82 million tonnes. (Source: Business Standard)

Brazil's south coffee, cane, wheat belt braces for frost

Frost descended on wheat growing areas that are vulnerable to damage in Brazil's south early on Tuesday, while coffee and sugar cane growing areas prepare for the worst to come Wednesday morning, local meteorologist Somar said. Agro-economists with the state government of Parana, which produces about 45 percent of Brazil's wheat, said about 40 percent of the state's area planted with wheat is vulnerable to loss from a frost. Brazil's annual wheat demand is between 10 million and 11 million tonnes, but it produces only around 5 million tonnes each year. Somar said frost had appeared in various regions of the state early Tuesday. Brazil is one of the world's leading importers of wheat, securing most of its foreign supplies from neighboring Argentina. Short supplies there this season has forced Brazilian flour mills to turn to North America to supplement its wheat import needs. Brazil was expected to import as much as 2 million tonnes from the United States and Canada, before news of the frost. (Source: Reuters)

UP sugar mills seek govt help as cane arrears pile up

Sugar mill owners in Uttar Pradesh have told the state that they can't pay even last year's cane price of Rs 280 per quintal unless the government gives a relief of Rs 40 per qtl to the industry or pays this amount to the sugarcane growers directly. The move comes amid industry's fears that the government may announce a steep hike in the sugar cane price for the next season to woo the farmers before the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. In a letter to the cane commissioner, the UP Sugar Millers Association has written that the "cane price paying capacity of the factories in Uttar Pradesh for 2013-14 is estimated to be at a maximum of Rs 240 per qtl" only. "Looking at the precarious condition that the sugar industry is in the current year, the factories would be able to pay either the FRP fixed by the Centre for 2013-14, or at best the previous year's cane price of Rs 280 per qtl with a subsidy of Rs 40/- per qtl to meet the shortfall," the letter states. (Source: Financial Express)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana Futures continued to slide downwards and hit a fresh contract low of ` 2740 on account of lack of buying interest and ample supplies. Comfortable stock position in the warehouses is also an important factor exerting a downside pressure on prices. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 3.5% and 2.62% lower yesterday. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Chana signifincalty higher at record 8.8 mn tn in the current season 2012-13. With a significant hike in MSP of kharif Pulses for 2013-14 season, area under cultivation is expected to increase in the coming season too. Further good monsoon may not only support good yield of kharif pulses, but also ensure favorable soil condition for sowing of Rabi pulses vizChana and Moong. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif th Pulses stood at 31.62 lakh ha as on 19 July 2013, which is up by 54 percent compared to the same period last year. According to government of AP, total pulses sowing in the current year is up by 1.5% at 4.02 lakh ha whereas according to data released by Rajasthan State Government, pulses sowing have been done in 4.51 la ha. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Aug'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 23, 2013 % change Last 2872 2754 Prev day -3.50 -2.62 WoW -7.24 -6.45 MoM -11.04 -15.21
Source: Reuters

YoY -42.82 -42.77

Spread Matrix
Closing 2871.65 2754 2808 2894 20-Aug-13 -117.65 0 -

as on July 23, 2013 20-Sep-13 -63.65 54 0 18-Oct-13 22.35 140 86 0 as on July 22, 2013 Stocks as on 20th July 82716 60619 11680 155015 Qty in Process 180 124 438 724

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 22nd July 82715 60230 11927 154872 Qty in Process 160 30 30 220

309

111

938

1358

Demand supply scenario

According to fourth advance Estimates released on 22 July 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at record 18.45 mn tn compared to the third advance estimates of 18 mn tn and 17.09 mn tn produced in 2011-12 seaosn. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output is pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.
nd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana prices are expected to continue to decline today on the back of an upward revision in chana output by the ministry of agriculture. Lack of buying interest and huge supplies may also keep sentiments weak in the near term. Recovery in the prices may be seen in the month of August as demand will emerge ahead of festivals.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 23, 2013 Resistance 2800-2850

2675-2715

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures traded on a negative note throughout the day on the back of excess rains in the soybean growing belts of central India and higher sowing figures of 2013-14 crops. Expectations of good yield have raised hopes of record soy output in the coming seaosn. However, prices recovered from lower levels towards the end of the day on account of short coverings and settled 05% lower on Tuesday. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Soybean output signifincalty higher at record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 201213 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higher than 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year. Monsoon rains slowed its pace last week, but still they were in excess in the soy growing belts of central India. As per the IMD, Cumulative th rainfall as on 17 July in the central India (major soy belt), were 42 th percent above the LPA, while in the week ending 17 July they rains were recorded up by 45 percent in Central India. As per the data released by ministry of agriculture, Oilseeds were th planted in 149.82 lakh ha as on 19 July, 2013, which is up by 37.7 percent compared to the same period last year. International Markets Soybean August futures on the CBOT declined sharply by 3.8% on falling cash basis levels in US Midwest and the Gulf. Reports that China may sell 3 mn tn of soybean from its reserves also pressurized prices. According to the USDA Crop Progress Report released on Monday, the USDA rated the U.S. the crop is rated as 64% good-to-excellent, 28% fair, and 8% very poor-poor. Last week's good/excellent rating came in at 67%. USDA reported that 8% of the crop is setting pods vs. 33% a year ago and a 19% five-year average. Also, 46% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 78% five-year average. Old-crop soybean inventories are expected to drop to a nine-year low by Aug. 31, 2013 due to last year's drought-reduced harvest and strong demand from China and domestic buyers.
Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Market Highlights

as on July 23, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.03 -7.50 -0.50 -3.80 -0.12 -1.37 -19.43 -0.86 -1.54 -3.10

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT Aug'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3489 3056 1463 3460 3314

MoM -10.26 -18.59 -3.27 -1.54 -5.29

YoY -29.6 -37.8 -13.9 -22.5 -24

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3489 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 3056 3062.5 3084 0 6.5 0 18-Oct-13 -433 20-Nov-13 -426.5

as on July 22, 2013 20-Dec-13 -405 28 21.5 0 as on July 22, 2013 20-Sep-13 -115.4 31 0 18-Oct-13 -91.4 55 24 0 as on July 20, 2013 Qty in Process 231 0 20 251 as on July 20, 2013 Qty in Process 30 0 0 0 483 50 80 643

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Closing 3460.4 3314 3345 3369 20-Aug-13 -146.4 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 22d July 13056 587 351 13994 Stocks as on 22nd July 3070 4458 20819 644 63971 4307 1971 99242 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 71 0 0 71 Stocks as on 20th July 16068 921 331 17320 Stocks as on 20th July 3040 4549 20779 634 63828 5283 1981 100094

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Outlook
Soybean may open lower tracking weak international markets. Prices may also decline on expectations of good yield and early start to harvesting in the domestic markets.

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed continued to decline hitting a fresh contract low on the back of abundant supplies in the domestic markets coupled with comfortable stocks of edible oil. Further, Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Overall trend in mustard seed remain bearish amidst higher production this season. However, demand at lower levels may restrict sharp fall in the prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 23, 2013 Support 3015-3036 3255-3285 Resistance 3080-3105 3350-3385
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil continued to trade on a bearish note as comfortable stocks of imported edible oil. Weak soy oil on the CBOT also added to the downside pressure. Spot as well as futures settled 0.44% and 1.03% lower w-o-w. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 3.2% to 947591 tn in June, supported by sunflower and soy oil imports ahead of Ramadan. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on May 1 stood at 670,000 tn, the trade body said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 674.70 657.45 44.78 2346 502.50 Prev day -0.44 -1.03 -1.39 -0.38 -0.04

as on July 22, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTAugust'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia August '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW -1.83 -4.80 -2.03 3.85 1.62

MoM -4.56 -4.83 -5.83 -2.01 -0.34

YoY -14.74 -17.82 -16.69 -20.80 -12.58

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 674.7 657.45 644.1 622.8 20-Aug-13 -17.25 0 20-Sep-13 -30.6 -13.35 0 -

as on July 22, 2013 18-Oct-13 -51.9 -34.65 -21.3 0 as on July 22, 2013

Outlook
Ref soy oil Futures are expected to continue to decline on the back of comfortable stock position of imported edible oil coupled with weak international markets. however expectations of a weak Rupee today may limit the downside and support prices at lower levels.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 502.5 500.4 490.9 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 -2.1 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO traded on a mixed note today. Weak international markets pressurized prices while depreciation in the Rupee supported prices at lower levels. Malaysian palm oil futures have declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred demand for most consumed cooking oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products from July 1 to 20 fell 14.0 percent to 798,482 tonnes from 928,810 tonnes shipped during June 1 to 20. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-15 declined 22.8% at 547,857 tn as against 709,860 tn during June 1-15. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined 20.7 per cent in June to 296, 230 tn, from a record high 373,837 tonnes in May as overall weakness in the Rupee made imports expensive.

30-Sept-13 -11.6 -9.5 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Outlook
CPO prices may trade on a mixed note. Lower level demand coupled with expectations of weakness in the Rupee support prices. However, overall weakness in edible oils may cap harp upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 23, 2013 Support 650-654 493-497 Resistance 662-666 504-507
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera August Futures declined for the third consecutive day yesterday and settled 1.37% lower on higher than expected arrivals coupled with higher production last year. However, robust overseas demand supported prices in the spot and settled marginally higher by 0.16%. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam &USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,350/tn (FOB Mumbai) while for Europe at $2,750-2,800/tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13651 13348 5648 5742 Prev day 0.16 -1.37 -0.57 -1.64

as on July 22, 2013 % Change WoW -0.76 -0.39 -1.19 0.03 MoM -0.82 -1.87 -0.93 -3.75 YoY -13.68 -15.55 6.00 -4.65

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Aug Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 13651.3 13347.5 13607.5 13857.5 20-Aug-13 -303.8 0 20-Sep-13 -43.8 260 0 -

as on July 22, 2013 18-Oct-13 206.2 510 250 0 as on July 22, 2013 20-Aug-13 94.2 0 20-Sep-13 158.2 64 0 18-Oct-13 280.2 186 122 0 as on July 20, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 20th July Process 1422 6193 7615 7444 NCDEX August contract 39 39 78 551

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 6,000 bags on Tuesday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 5647.8 5742 5806 5928

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade with a negative bias extending yesterdays losses on account of higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions. However, overseas demand may support prices at lower levels. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 22nd July 1460 5985 7445 8109 Qty in Process 6 6 12 50

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a negative note yesterday and settled 1.64% lower as overseas on account of huge stocks coupled with good sowing progress and weak local buying. However, overseas demand limited the downside. Sowing in Andhra Pradesh is higher than last year but lower than the normal sowing.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode mandi were reported at 1,200 bags and 4,500 bags respectively on Tuesday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is th reported at 0.3 lakh ha as on 17 July, as against 0.25 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.37 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric prices may trade sideways with a negative bias as the ongoing sowing coupled with good monsoon progress as well as huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices. However, overseas demand coupled with declining arrivals in the spot may support prices.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 23, 2013

Support 13130-13240 5560-5650 Resistance 13500-13620 5840-5930
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar spot as well as futures gained 0.28% and 0.3% yesterday on account of short coverings supported by export orders coupled with an increase in the import duty. Prices have declined over the past few weeks on the back of ample supplies in the domestic markets. Expectations of recovery in the cane yield due to improving monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka also exerted downside pressure on the sugar prices. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 48.4 lakh ha as compared to 50.04 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 3025 `/qtl 475 $/tonne 363.11 $/tonne -0.37 0.64 0.30 Last 3063

as on July 22, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.28 -0.04 1.95 -1.66 2.13 MoM YoY 0.52 -11.96 0.46 -7.03 -3.94 -8.72 -26.43 -31.60

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3062.85 3025 3038 3061 20-Aug-13 -37.85 0 20-Sep-13 -24.85 13 0 -

as on July 22, 2013 18-Oct-13 -1.85 36 23 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon may curb some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 22nd July 2548 6017 21 923 9509 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on July 20, 2013 Stocks as on 20th July 2548 6237 21 1098 9904 Qty in Process 0 50 0 0 50

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE Sugar settled 0.64% higher on Tuesday as cold weather and rains in the countrys main growing region are set to disrupt harvesting while ICE Raw sugar corrected 0.37% on account of profit taking. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago. Also, Mills have used 58.1 percent of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 53.82 percent at this time last year with the rest used for sugar.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures may continue to trade lower as higher supplies and expectations of improvement in the cane output may continue to mount pressure on the prices. However, good export orders coupled with an increase in import duty and festive season demand may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 23, 2013 Support 3005-3015 Resistance 3032-3040

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Commodities Daily Report

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Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 0.56% higher. However, Cotton prices settled marginally lower by 0.05%. Prices have decline on account of higher planting and good monsoon and higher sowing so far in the country. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 981.5 19630 86.01 93.5

as on July 22, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.56 -2.97 -0.05 1.55 -0.44 1.58 #N/A #N/A MoM YoY -2.97 #N/A 0.67 8.93 3.65 20.55 1.80 9.36
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 19630 20200 19700 31-Jul-13 0

as on July 22, 2013 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 570 0 70 -500 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting was reported higher at 100.55 la ha as on 19 July 2013 as against 83.74 la ha during the same period last year. A considerable increase in cotton acreage is observed in Gujarat wherein sowing was reported at 22.71 la ha on 12 July 2013, up from 8.6 la ha last year. Similarly, sowing in Rajasthan and AP was seen at 3.29 la ha and 13.2 la ha respectively. In Maharashtra, however, cotton sowing was reported at 28.95 la ha which is less as compared to the sowing here during the same period last year which was 33.6 la ha.
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Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Stocks as on 22nd20th July 5000 1800 111400 21500 900 100 140700

as on July 20, 2013

Stocks as on 20th July 10000 5400 113200 21500 900 100 151100 NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
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Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total

Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton futures corrected on account of profit booking at higher levels coupled with improved outlook for the new crop, easing supply concerns and settled 0.44% lower on Tuesday. The USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. ICAC has lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. Reports indicate that textile mills in China are seeking permission to import more cotton. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade on a mixed note with a negative bias tracking higher sowing and good monsoon. However, improved buying spurred by lower prices in the domestic markets may support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 23, 2013 Support 968-975 20030-20120 Resistance 986-991 20290-20380
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures opened sharply lower extending previous days losses account of higher sowing along with comfortable supplies. However, prices recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 0.4% and 1.07% lower respectively on Tuesday. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4930 `/qtl 16987 `/qtl 13890 `/qtl -1.07 -2.42 -0.40 Last Prev day 6080 -1.94

as on July 22, 2013 % change WoW -13.88 -30.86 -14.85 -32.24 MoM -21.08 -33.74 -21.98 -35.43 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 15 July, 2013 stood at 8.17 lakh hectares compared with 4.75 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year.
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Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 6080 4930 4880 4940 18-Oct-13 -1150 0 20-Nov-13 -1200 -50 0 -

as on July 22, 2013 20-Dec-13 -1140 10 60 0 as on July 22, 2013 20-Nov-13 -3237.35 -140 0 20-Dec-13 -3067.35 30 170 0 as on July 20, 2013 Stocks as on 20th July 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 16987.35 13890 13750 13920 18-Oct-13 -3097.35 0 -

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 22nd July 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed and guar gum prices are expected to to decline in the intraday on expectations that monsoon will gain momentum further in the largest guar growing state of Rajasthan. Higher sowing and thereby higher output hopes may keep sentiments weak in the near term.

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 23, 2013 Support 4750-4840 4740-4830 13400-13650 13390-13640 Resistance 5010-5100 5000-5090 14130-14380 14120-14370

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com