FRANKFURT STORYDRIVE

FORUM FOR TRENDS AND INNOVATION IN MEDIA, ENTERTAINMENT AND MORE

MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF THE CONTENT AND MEDIA WORLD

MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA

10
years into the future

22
experts and thought leaders provide the spark

1,400
opinions from the media world

THE PROJECT What will the (media) world look like in 10 years? If we only knew today what changes awaited us in the year 2022, it would be worth a mint. Thats why Frankfurt StoryDrive has teamed up with the agency newthinking communications to venture a sneak peek at the future of the media. How much of what lies in the future can we already witness today and how well prepared is the media industry? We provide a look at the market climate. The starting point was a collection of 22 video statements from innovators in the media and content industries. Those who provided statements including trend scouts, publishers, authors, film producers and games developers outlined and staged their individual, sometimes provocative visions of the media world in 2022 in the form of messages from the future. Seven drafts of the future of the media and entertainment industry were then derived from these video statements. The scenarios ultimately served as the basis for an international survey. Around 1,400 representatives of the international content and media world ranging from the managing director of a large book publisher to a librarian participated in the online survey. The result is a representative reflection of the general mood of the market one that suggests an overall spirit of innovation in the industry. How well prepared does the media world feel for what lies ahead? Which trends are important, in their opinion and which do they consider completely irrelevant?

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA SUMMARY According to the results of the survey, the industry is standing with one foot in the future and the other in the past. A strong sense of balance will (hopefully) go one step further. Since digitisation began to take hold in the 1990s, the media and entertainment industry has been in a state of transition, the end of which is not yet in sight. The industry has ventured a long way from home over the last few decades. The journey has begun and many have already come along for the ride. This state of constant transition inevitably creates a feeling of conflict. The industry is caught in a constant balancing act between back and forth, today and tomorrow, tradition and innovation. The results of the study reveal a sense of indecision. The majority of those surveyed, an average of 45 per cent, are simply monitoring the developments outlined by our experts. But at 30 per cent, the number of participants who support our experts theses and who feel prepared for the future does, in fact, outnumber those who rated the scenarios as irrelevant (24 per cent). The industry is proving itself to be more open and innovative than its reputation belies with regards to flexible working conditions, interdisciplinary collaborations, open innovation, and more. Whats missing is a pro-active approach and perhaps a little courage as well. Survey participants express the most openness and preparedness in cases where theres a direct and tangible link to added value for example, when the potential is there for content to be monetised in new and different ways. Their responses are more reserved or even negative when it seems that the industrys traditional roles are being called into question, e.g. through increased participation on the part of consumers. Technological changes also tend to be viewed as a risk. The (digital) revolution has ultimately become an evolution.. In other words, if the future is a mountain, the industry is driving upward with the handbrake on. But sometimes thats not such a bad approach to take when youre climbing

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA SUMMARY One look at the results of the individual scenarios provides a pretty clear picture of industry preferences. Changes in implementation, distribution, and sometimes even content creation are already being adapted. Processes that strongly call into question the authority, self-image or core competences of the industry either through predictions about new areas of activity, an (overly) powerful consumer or omnipresent technology are, however, greeted with scepticism or rejection. The theses developed in scenario one, Media Convergence, are based primarily on changes in the production and creation of content. These are met with broad approval. Fifty-four per cent of those surveyed confirmed that they are offering or planning to offer crossmedia products. This represents the highest approval rating in the survey. This scenario had an overall acceptance rate of around 40 per cent. Acceptance was comparatively high for scenario two, The Future of Collaboration, coming in at 36 per cent. The consolidation of content providers and external industries received particularly positive evaluations (44 per cent). Both scenarios deal with matters that have already arrived in the here and now, the added value of which is already tangible. On the other hand, only 26.5 per cent of those surveyed expressed agreement with scenario four, Personalised Stories, which invokes the image of a strong consumer that demands to participate and have access to individualised content. The results were similar for the topic New Added Value, for example, which describes the emergence of the consumer as a partner or investor. Only 25 per cent were in favour of this scenario. One-third of those surveyed rejected the significance of each of these visions, thus outnumbering the number of individuals who rated them positively. The Virtual Worlds scenario, which conjures up an image of the merging of fiction and reality through omnipresent technology, was subject to the highest rate of rejection (around 35 per cent). Only 20 per cent indicate that they feel prepared for this scenario. What the scenarios have in common is that they are based on conjecture and imply a new understanding of the industry. The potential opportunities that lie in AR technologies, for example, are not yet recognised across the board. Lack of awareness and a lack of understanding are one reason behind the negative attitude. Another is the instinct to protect ones own existence.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA

SCENARIO I MEDIA CONVERGENCE

In 2022, youll have access to everything at the swipe of a finger

Different forms of media continue to merge. Smartphones and tablets not to mention content have become increasingly more sophisticated. Theyve been optimally adapted to the technology available. They are highly flexible and available in the form of images, text, sound, film, and games. Medical books incorporate twenty different audio samples of the whooping cough. The biography of Mozart offers users the option of calling up images, videos, music, the latest concert listings or even scores. Many stories and content are communicated across a variety of media. Traditional books and films only serve a niche market.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA MEDIA CONVERGENCE

BACKGROUND ON THIS SCENARIO As early as the 1990s, there was already evidence of a convergence of technical devices. This development is particularly apparent in the triumph of smartphones and tablet PCs. Today they serve as reading devices, computers, mobile phones, televisions and radios all rolled into one. Since 2011, sales of mobile devices that can do it all have overtaken sales of the conventional computer. The fusion of devices not only changes media usage behaviour, but also influences how content is created. From apps to web series and content snippets, publishers and media houses are experimenting with new formats and crossmedia narrative forms. Multimedia and crossmedia are transforming into transmedia. The consumer has the option of accessing the story through the medium of his or her choice and expanding it using other media depending on his or her preferences. The story might begin as an e-book and end in the form of a film or web comic. This represents an opportunity for media companies to branch out their content over multiple media and markets. Studies on media use indicate that this trend will continue to grow.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA MEDIA CONVERGENCE

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Julia Leihener, Service Designer Here in the Deutsche Telekoms Creation Center, we carried out a very comprehensive project on the subject of convergence scenarios in 2020. It is very conceivable that many communications channels will merge with each other in the future.

Max Kostopoulos, Junior Art Director If a medium wants to survive in the future, then it has to be linkable. It must have the potential to connect with other media so that content can then trickle in like water.

Gunter Dueck, Philosopher and Mathematician Its clear that the multimedia book has to arrive somehow and that someone will have the idea to build something so beautiful that it will be reproduced on a broad scale.

Stephan Bayer, E-learning Expert and CEO If I only have editors who say that they dont want to be media editors that makes it difficult to implement changes in a publishing house.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA MEDIA CONVERGENCE

54%
are preparing themselves for multimedia content

44%
already offer or are planning to offer transmedia content

19%
do not anticipate any major changes

With an average rate of 38 per cent, this scenario achieved the highest approval rate. Around half of those surveyed already offer or are planning to offer multimedia products. Transmedia storytelling has also already found its way into everyday work life. The media world is also staking its claim with regards to multimedia capability and media convergence. This trend has already impacted many survey participants. This result is put into perspective by the 43 per cent of respondents who are cautiously monitoring the trend. Nineteen per cent even consider this trend irrelevant to their work. The assumption that multimedia products will increasingly replace traditional media, like books or films, was viewed as an unlikely scenario by 20 per cent of survey participants. Half of those surveyed were indifferent. In the free comments, several of the respondents even predicted a comeback for print media as a counter to the continued rise of digitisation, or expressed hope that the Internet bubble would burst a second time and bring the artificial hype of multimedia content to an end. Content is flexible and contains multimedia elements
54% 38% 8% 44%

Stories are told across various media

17% 27%

39%

Fictional content is enhanced with information services Traditional media is becoming a niche product
0% Prepared for this 10%

41% 31% 27% 53% 19% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Cautious/Observant

Do not see any relevance

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA

SCENARIO II VIRTUAL WORLDS

The virtual world will permeate all aspects of life in 2022

The distinction between the real and virtual world has all but vanished in many fields. The Internet of things expands beyond the boundaries of the computer and connects with the surrounding world. The technology is almost invisible. House walls and tables have been transformed into touchscreens. Data glasses or sensors in clothes allow people to be online nonstop. Many media products can be experienced with all the senses. The recipient sees, hears, tastes and feels fictional adventures along with the protagonists in a way that is becoming increasingly realistic. Before, during and even long after the content has actually been consumed, the recipient re-immerses himself in stories time and again on story portals along with other users. Stories are now part of reality, and reality is part of the stories.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA VIRTUAL WORLDS

BACKGROUND ON THIS SCENARIO At the end of the 1990s, the film The Matrix was already posing the question of how real reality can actually be. Today, many aspects of our environment are actually already part of an expanded, simulation-based reality and Google data glasses could be the icing on the cake. The first standard mobile phones with new sensors were introduced at the IFA at the beginning of the year. They allow people to use the device simply by making gestures in the air with their fingers or using their eyes. Technologies like this not only make devices easier to use; they also enhance the experience of immersing oneself in virtual worlds. Many users have a desire to immerse themselves in their favourite stories, to interact with them and, in the process, experience them on a more intense level. Today, Internet portals already allow fans to become part of their story universe. Projects like Sonys Wonderbook offer a sign of how augmented reality could take this trend even further in the future. In terms of marketing, campaigns that build a bridge between reality and virtuality e.g. the social media campaign that accompanied the science fiction film Prometheus are celebrated as success stories. We can also look forward to new, perhaps even profound developments from the world of neuroscience in the coming years.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA VIRTUAL WORLDS

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Leander Wattig, Blogger (The) technological sphere is the central driving force behind change. And that was also the case in the past. People always had the need to send out messages and theyve always done the best they could to do so using the tools they had available to them at the time. At one point this was a stone slab; later it was the printed book. In the future there will be still other means for telling stories.

Hardy Krause, Future Media Consultant My statements are based on the fact that I, myself, have helped develop these technologies, e.g. streaming technologies. These have quite a lot to do with the processing of real-time data and adaptation to the users surroundings or context. Its all about making sure that everyone gets exactly what he or she needs or whats relevant to him or her at any given moment and increasingly at the same time.

Kristian Costa-Zahn, Head of Creation For thousands of years, people have had the urge to make storytelling more realistic and to draw people further and further into the story. () If we now try to think ten years into the future, then we can certainly start to think a little more radically. And we are already approaching the phenomenon of immersion from several different fronts.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA VIRTUAL WORLDS

>80%
either disapprove of or are cautiously monitoring the fusion of the real and virtual worlds

24%
are already offering their customers opportunities to delve into stories on the Internet

2/3
are planning to develop immersive products

This scenario featured the highest rejection rate, with an average of 36 per cent. Nearly half of those surveyed see no relevant correlation between permanently being online and media products. For them, the Internet of Things still doesnt seem very tangible. The comments make it clear that they do not believe in the triumph of the synthetic media world and that they see a risk of overstimulation of the senses. This scepticism leads to Rousseau-inspired claims, including loud calls for a return to nature and for simplicity. This negative reaction is counterbalanced by the 45 per cent of respondents who are simply monitoring the trend. A particularly innovative 20 per cent of those surveyed feel well positioned to face the increasing fusion of fiction and reality. The results reveal that the majority of media and publishing professionals are still struggling to identify technological changes at an early stage and use them to their benefit. Consumers remain permanently tuned into stories thanks to story portals Media consumers delve deeper into stories through sensory experiences
24% 45% 31% 23% 48% 29% 20% 45% 35% 13% 40% 47%

Reality and stories are merging with each other

We are almost always online using our clothes, furniture and other items
0%
Prepared for this

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Cautious/Observant

Do not see any relevance

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA

SCENARIO III LIBERATED STORIES

In the future, stories will be independent and fluid

A new copyright law and the standardisation of formats allow content to be more independent. Most content can not only be exchanged, given away and displayed on all devices it can also be recomposed, mashed together, remixed and transformed. Some consumers are very active with their fan fiction, driving stories, continuing them and combining them with other stories. More and more often, authors, publishers and the consumers themselves are creating non-linear story universes with infinite storylines. The crowd is simultaneously (co-) author, editor and marketer.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA LIBERATED STORIES

BACKGROUND ON THIS SCENARIO The Internet culture has revived the do-ityourself movement. But people dont go online just to exchange their experiences. They also discuss and create content that extends beyond all national boundaries. A fan of a particular story can now find like-minded people all over the world at the click of a mouse. The fact that Trekkies document and analyse every episodes of the Starship Enterprise is still more of a responsive act. Other communities fill in the gaps in characters background stories or create stories or (new) faces for minor characters. These stories are illustrated, animated, set to music and retold, and more as long as someone is listening, theres a story to tell. Even first-time authors and publishers are getting in on this interactive game and incorporating suggestions from readers into their stories or letting them engage directly online. Brazilian author Paulo Coelho is one of the pioneers on this front. As part of the crowdsourcing project associated with his new novel The Witch of Portobello, he made it possible for reader-generated content to be adapted to film. Studies (Groundswell, Forrester) show that up to 12 per cent of all individuals want to be creative and make creative contributions. Thanks to Web 2.0, it is now even easier for this desire to become a reality.
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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA LIBERATED STORIES

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Philipp Zimmermann, Author and Storyteller I believe that group participation in stories is something that weve forgotten how to do and that were now being forced to learn again. In our Western culture, were used to there being an audience that sits below in front of the stage, listening silently and reacting with reverence. The process is much more dynamic in other countries

Alban Nikolai Herbst, Writer, Poet and Director Those who are trying to discover new narrative formats that can be completed online are on the right track. I wrote a novella in real time in Paris. Every day for eight hours a day. And I incorporated each of the comments I received into the story. In other words, some of the commentators were actually turned into characters in the novel and also treated as such. We then made a book out of it.

Karina Fissguss, Online Journalist and Web TV Expert Really anyone who is taking action is on the right track. That is, the people who fine-tune content, () who simply produce (). There are people who write, who film, who tell stories and exchange ideas

Markus Beckedahl, Internet Explicator and Blogger There are certain trends that change the relationship between the transmitters and the recipients. Its clear that this, in turn, will lead to a completely new understanding of community and a whole new ecosystem between authors and readers.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA LIBERATED STORIES

48%
are prepared for the standardisation of content formats

~20%
believe that the consumer should be an active participant

65%
are monitoring continued developments impacting copyright law

The Liberated Stories scenario is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, nearly 50 per cent of those surveyed acknowledge that the future will be marked by technical standardisation and a resulting flexibility of content in tune with the opinion of our experts. However, when it comes to the idea of consumers playing an increasing role in determining content, the respondents become increasingly cautious. Approval ratings decrease as consumer participation becomes greater and more consistent. Comments reveal that the respondents greatest fear on this front would be the loss of quality. With regards to the increased flexibility of copyright, only 16 per cent anticipate that there will be no change or that a change would have no impact on them. Sixty-five per cent are simply observing from the sidelines. Content formats are standardised and available on all devices
48% 39% 13%

Consumers actively help shape and change stories

25% 45% 30%

Different stories are linked by the user to form a story universe

20% 45% 34%

A new copyright law makes content independent and fluid

0% Prepared for this 10%

18% 65% 16% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

Cautious/Observant

Do not see any relevance

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA

SCENARIO IV PERSONALISED STORIES

Stories will be highly individualised in 2022

Consumers want to participate and they expect individualised story experiences, rather than uniform story packages. The world of the consumer and the consumer himself influence the course of the story. The story changes depending on the situation, needs and user profile from a five-minute short story read on a smartphone at the bus stop to a story that keeps you and your friends occupied through an entire game night. Freemium is the new model. Basic versions are generally available free of charge premium versions and value added services come at a price or are paid for with personal data.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA PERSONALISED STORIES

BACKGROUND ON THIS SCENARIO Individualisation and personalisation is the demand du jour. This is true not only of the service sector in general, but also for the media industry. Now more than ever, the customer is king and he demands solutions and products that are customised to him and to his needs. Members of Generation Y in particular take advantage of opportunities for adapting products to their individual preferences from customised runners from Nike, to computers and mobile phones with personalised surfaces. Content is also increasingly becoming the focus of personalisation. Stories are already being offered in various forms and formats today so that customers can choose according to their preferences. Publishers offer apps for smartphones that allow users to enter how much time they have to kill so that they can receive a story that is customised to the amount of time they have available. In some cases, the content of the stories is even adapted to reflect the users personal lives. Individuality is increasingly the new measure of value for users and theyre willing to pay for it, too. Thanks to the growing desire for participation and co-determination, the need for customised products will continue to increase and not just in the media market.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA PERSONALISED STORIES

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Geraldine de Bastion, International Media Consultant Even I, as a publisher, have to get much better acquainted than I am today with the tastes, preferences and even the timeframes in which my readers consume media. This is the only way I can decide if I should employ a particular short fiction format or an entire novel, or even a news service. Its about having the skills to bring the right media to the right people.

Petra Sammer, Chief Creative Officer Media products are currently either offered for one group (active users) or the other (passive users). I firmly believe that there is a market out there for even more user groups. Stories themselves are exciting, but the final product must be attuned to the needs of at least three different user types (passive, comment, creator). But I also believe that this is affected by mood. On one day Ill do something one way, and on another day, Id prefer it another way.

Dorothea Martin, Transmedia and Social Media Expert There are already several platforms on which manuscripts are evaluated by users before they are accepted by publishers. Selfpublishing has just experienced a really huge boom. The newest business models on this front are most certainly digital. The music industry has already witnessed this radical change. I think that digitisation offers new opportunities for financing and additional services for content that also serve as new models for creating profit. The question is: How can I use digitisation to my advantage?

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA PERSONALISED STORIES

~30%
are prepared to offer stories in a variety of different versions

81%
are reluctant to adapt the content of a story to the specific circumstances of individual readers

75%
are sceptical about a freemium business model

The industry appears to be torn about the increasing personalisation of content and media products. While an average of 30 per cent of those surveyed are sceptical or dismissive of this issue, 27 per cent are starting to develop related products. As in other scenarios, it is clear in this case that the more say the reader is granted, the lower the approval rating from media professionals. The majority of those surveyed (44 per cent) are cautious about the idea of personalising content and media products. Thirty-seven per cent even responded that they would not accommodate consumers desire for personalised or individualised content. Only a quarter of those questioned feel prepared to adapt their business models accordingly for example, with freemium products. As in the Media Convergence and Liberated Stories scenarios, the individual comments reveal that respondents are evading this trend out of fear of excessive demands and user oversaturation. Stories are available in short and long versions
33% 40% 28%

Stories are available with various levels of interaction

29% 44% 27%

Basic versions are available for free. Freemium is the new business model
19%

25% 46% 29%

The consumer expects the storys content be adapted to his situation

0% Prepared for this 10%

44% 37% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Cautious/Observant

Do not see any relevance

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA

SCENARIO V THE FUTURE OF COLLABORATION

New working relationships will define the media market in 2022

Many forms of production have become extremely complex and must be completed in a very short period of time. Hardly any company can afford to keep the necessary pool of experts at their disposal. As a result, people are forming highly flexible, interdisciplinary networks, whose members work together as required on a project basis. The relationship between employer and creative professional has changed. Creative A-listers confidently wait to be recruited by publishers and agents. They work across disciplines for all industries. Even authors and developers have become more independent thanks to the opportunities presented by selfpublishing, social media and crowdfunding. Publishers are increasingly serving as consulting and service agencies for authors and developers.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA THE FUTURE OF COLLABORATION

BACKGROUND ON THIS SCENARIO Many of todays organisational principles are around a century old. They date back to an age of local markets with stable conditions. But globalisation and networking are contributing to a much higher degree of complexity in many fields, which traditional structures are not equipped to handle or at least not adequately. Add to that a new generation of workers who prioritise meaningfulness and selffulfilment over financial security. Traditional reward mechanisms and careers are losing their clout. In the creative sector especially, creative freedom and identification with the cause are what really matter. The large number of startup and new business launches (over 400,000 a year in Germany alone) are evidence that the pioneering spirit, the desire to create something new, is growing. The Internet and low-cost production conditions are also making it easier for young entrepreneurs to get their start. Its against this backdrop that the business of creativity is also changing. Acknowledged as an economic factor, slowly but surely a battle for scarce resources is looming the demand for new service providers is growing. Companies are also starting to adapt their internal structures accordingly. Theyre betting on more individual responsibility and flexibility in order to be able to respond quickly and more creatively.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA THE FUTURE OF COLLABORATION

FOOD FOR THOUGHT Constanze Buchheim, Recruiting Expert & CEO Many companies dont even realise that they miss out on talented people simply because they wait for them to apply. But the opposite is true. Young agile companies, and those who understand that the war for talent has already begun, are now starting to contact talented individuals directly.

Ricardo dos Santos Miquelino, Marketing Expert & CEO Today its essential to build good networks and to constantly communicate with new creative individuals. You have to decide how you can best create a common philosophy or vision for your work. This is, I think, the greatest challenge facing companies today. The (new generation of workers) would rather chop off their hand than go back to being a full-time employee of an agency. It no longer fits in with their life models.

Alexander Baumgardt, Management Consultant & Educator Especially in Germany you will maybe have another 2 years when you will feel extremely painful pressure on your system. It means some of your top talents will leave your organization and create organizations that will be your fiercest competitors.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA THE FUTURE OF COLLABORATION

>40%
see themselves as service providers for authors and recruit creative media experts

39%
think that authors will increasingly publish their books using selfpublishing services

73%
are not yet prepared for a future of complex products with shorter life cycles

The average approval rating for this scenario (37 per cent) was almost twice as high as the rejection rate (20 per cent). Changes in the labour market are recognised and confirmed by experts, along with the majority of those surveyed. Nineteen per cent either reject the idea of publishers positioning themselves as service providers for authors or see it as irrelevant. This is surprising given the fact that 39 per cent of those surveyed acknowledge the self-publishing trend. Many of the comments point to a growing gap between large corporations, with their established brands, AAA productions and multimillion-dollar budgets, and small businesses. Despite the difficult conditions facing them, many see an opportunity for small companies given their greater flexibility and speed. Around 40 per cent of survey participants agreed that the media industry is better prepared for the changes impacting the professional market than many other industries. Publishers see themselves as service providers for authors
42% 38% 19%

Creative media experts are in demand and much sought after

40% 43% 17%

Authors work independently and often in self-publishing

39% 43% 19%

Complex products with short life spans define the market

0% Prepared for this 10% 20%

27% 48% 25% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Cautious/Observant

Do not see any relevance

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA

SCENARIO VI COOPERATION FOR INNOVATION

The year 2022 will be dominated by cooperation

Alliances between content providers and other industries are now on the table. Publishers and media companies are joining forces with IT service providers, for example, or telecommunications firms. Together they are repositioning themselves in the market. Content is created primarily on the Internet and in interdisciplinary teams. They increasingly provide content to each other. Many of the barriers between market players have disappeared thanks to open innovation and crowdsourcing. As a result, consumers will also increasingly play a role as associates and business partners of media providers in 2022.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA COOPERATION FOR INNOVATION

BACKGROUND ON THIS SCENARIO Increased competition due to globalisation, shorter product life cycles, and particularly the new parameters created by the rise of digitisation are increasing the pressure on the media and entertainment industries to become more innovative. Many publishers and media companies have realised that they cannot implement the innovations they require without some help. Theyre seeking out partners and building innovation networks. One example of cross-industry collaboration is Tolino, a joint project launched by German booksellers and Deutsche Telekom. Many companies are also opening up to their competitors or to their customers. Netnography, crowdsourcing and webbased innovation studies are examples of so-called open innovation approaches that incorporate the consumer into all aspects of the product development process. Modern organisations are increasingly developing into federations, networks and clusters. They collaborate in ad-hoc partnerships, short-term systems and modules. According to experts, were once again at a turning point in our professional world that has just begun to take shape.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA COOPERATION FOR INNOVATION

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Sven Gabor Janszky, Trend Scout and Futurologist (Its all about) () taking part in and shaping a trend that is unstoppable. There are smaller publishers that have very deliberately combined their knowledge of the publishing industry with know-how from the computer field in an attempt to set something new in motion.

Michael Opielka, Academic Director and CEO We are much more open and transparent today. It is much easier for us to talk about ourselves, and we do so more authentically. I believe that this is an opportunity for humanity worldwide.

Sebastian Wehner, CEO and Producer Theres a lack of willingness to take risks by playing with new business models and trying out new things (). This is, of course, difficult for established houses that are not used to dialogue. This openness to dialogue and acceptance of changes is whats still missing in many parts of the media industry.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA COOPERATION FOR INNOVATION

44%
see the consolidation with other industries as something that drives innovation

~35%
also think of competitors and consumers as new business partners

66%
are reluctant to embrace consumers as business partners

An average of 36 per cent of survey participants advocated for thinking outside the box and for increased transparency with regards to innovation processes. Many of these pioneers believe that collective intelligence opens the door for completely new products to be developed, e.g. new ways of presenting content, new formats, new pricing models for media. Even the delivery of content in various different formats is seen as a collaborative service. People are still wary of viewing consumers as business partners or investors. Fortysix per cent are monitoring this development; 20 per cent see it as completely irrelevant. As with other scenarios, the majority of respondents in this case (an average of 49 per cent) are also monitoring all of these developments.

Content providers are partnering with other industries

44% 45% 11%

Competitors are closing ranks and achieving new added value together

37% 50% 13%

Consumers are potential business partners and investors

34% 46% 20%

Innovation processes are taking place openly and transparently online

0% Prepared for this 10%

32% 53% 16% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Cautious/Observant

Do not see any relevance

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA

SCENARIO VII NEW ADDED VALUE

In the future, media companies will rely on new core activities

Many publishers are focusing on organising events relating to stories, in addition to curating content. In the process, theyve become experience agencies. They have built loyal communities that actively support projects and finance them through crowdfunding. At the same time, the multimedia productions demanded by the market are tremendously expensive and can only be implemented with the kind of budgets set aside for Hollywood blockbusters. But by involving many donors (e.g. fans via crowdfunding) and exploiting media content on a global scale, the production costs incurred can be refinanced or otherwise sorted out.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA NEW ADDED VALUE

BACKGROUND ON THIS SCENARIO The ready availability of products in Western industrialised countries, not least of all thanks to the Internet, can make many things seem arbitrary. Media virtuality makes a lot of things possible but it doesnt (yet) allow us to experience something real. As a counter movement to digital culture and its limits, live events like concerts and readings are experiencing a revival. Among customers, theres a demand for unique experiences where they can be among a select group of participants. They want to be engrossed and to participate. Media companies and publishers are responding by offering increasingly unusual events. Even bookstores are staging new releases as parties, as was the case with Harry Potter. Creating communities is another option for allowing the customer to participate and have an emotional response. Many blockbusters or bestsellers have been given an extra push by dedicated fan sites and forums. The track record of crowdfunding and investment is proof enough that active participation translates directly into cash. On the crowdfunding platform Kickstarter, crowd investments for individual projects like the comic book The Order of the Stick and the development of the computer game Double Fine Adventure have even exceeded the one million US dollar mark. New and promising opportunities are emerging perhaps even new business models.
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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA NEW ADDED VALUE

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Gregor Sedlag, Illustrator and Comic Author What really brings in money is still this aura of uniqueness. When the work is an experience in and of itself. I think that business in the future will be based on a unique constellation of materiality in time and space associated with a particular idea.

Tino Krener, Crowdfunding Expert and CEO Today the responsibility of funding the creative industries can no longer rest exclusively on the shoulders of the company, the economy and the state. The people themselves have to be a part of the creative process and, in doing so, create a new type of economic strength in society. A form of democratic financing in which we are no longer dependent on the decision of a single publisher or experts on funding committees. Crowdfunding is a funding tool that should be taken seriously and an excellent marketing tool. By involving people, I can trigger communication and promotion early in the game.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA NEW ADDED VALUE

36%
are building their own communities

26%
believe that media houses will increasingly be transformed into experience agencies

17%
are preparing to use crowdfunding

The New Added Value scenario implies the likely most radical reinterpretation of how publishers and media companies traditionally define themselves. Thats because the triumph of crowdfunding represents the ultimate democratisation of publishing and media products and with that, the end of publisher authority. Its not surprising then that around a third of those surveyed viewed this topic as irrelevant. Fifty per cent are monitoring the crowdfunding trend and just 17 per cent are already responding to it. The accompanying comments confirm the industrys ambivalence. The increased influence of readers as investors (crowdfunding) is regarded both as a force that drives the creation of mainstream products and one that contributes to the death of unique products. This is contradicted by supporters of the trend, who feel that the democratisation of the industry will lead to more opportunities for individual niche products to be developed. Overall, this scenario also reveals a divide within the industry. Media companies are building their own communities and are supported by them Media companies have become experience agencies
20% 46% 34% 17% 52% 31% 0% Prepared for this 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 36% 43% 20% 26% 46% 28%

Global media mega projects are the norm

Publishers finance production through crowdfunding

Cautious/Observant

Do not see any relevance

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA

ADDENDUM

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA ADDENDUM SURVEY PARTICIPANTS

>70%
of those surveyed were from the print field

~30%
of those surveyed were from the Englishspeaking world

~30%
of those surveyed work in companies with more than 50 employees

SURVEY PARAMETERS The survey was conducted online in February 2013 and was available online for free for one month. Participants were originally approached using one of the Frankfurt Book Fairs mail distributors. The future scenarios presented were based loosely on trends suggested by the digital innovators. INDUSTRIES Print (books, periodicals) Games Film/TV Other (services, media) Active in multiple industries NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES 1 - 10 employees 11 - 200 employees > 200 employees AGE OF COMPANY < 5 years 5 - 10 years > 10 years ROLES Directors Management Staff and experts 32% 13% 55% 24% 12% 64% 53% 30% 17% 71% 6% 11% 12% 9%

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA ADDENDUM OVERVIEW OF RESULTS

DISTINCTIONS BASED ON BUSINESS TYPES Medium and large companies (from 11 to over 200 employees) are naturally more open to technological innovations, which are often associated with larger investments. However, they responded negatively to trends that call the traditional self-image of publishing into question, like self-publishing or the positioning of publishers as service providers for authors. Companies with 200-500 employees and relatively new companies proved to be the most enthusiastic about innovation. But young entrepreneurs, in particular, were critical of the increasing complexity of products that, at the same time, are subject to shorter life cycles. In an industry comparison, the gaming sector, followed by the book industry, was the most open to the trends presented. ASSESSMENT GERMAN / INTERNATIONAL When compared with the German individuals surveyed, international participants tended to be more open to and in favour of the scenarios and trends. The biggest differences were evident when it came to topics related to new collaborations and changes in the workplace. Compared to German participants, international participants are far more comfortable with collaborations, free networks and open innovation.
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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA ADDENDUM TIPS FOR CHANGE MANAGEMENT

1. PROMOTE CHANGE YOURSELF The first step is to recognise that change can pose a threat to old business models. Only if you are open to new realities can you be prepared to experiment, get rid of the old and offer new alternatives to old traditions. The best way to accomplish this is to approach that which is new with wide eyes, passion and delight. For example, you could ask yourself, How can I use digitisation to my advantage? Which narrative formats flourish in the digital world? 2. QUESTION YOURSELF In order to create something new, you have to question what is already there. You can only evolve and remain sustainable if you regularly take a critical look at yourself and your work. Small internal labs or innovation units can also help challenge traditional corporate divisions. 3. USE YOUR INTERNAL POTENTIAL FOR INNOVATION Change can be effected by empowering internal forces. The next generation might be in-house. For example, you can listen to employees of your own publishing house and give them the freedom to experiment especially if they are members of your new target audiences. 4. ADD EXTERNAL FORCES TO THE MIX In order to really reinvent things, sometimes you need to bring in some ideas from the outside. You can build creative networks that allow people to think and work across disciplines. Its all about creating beacon projects and using pioneers with strong visibility among your customer base to champion your new products. 5. TALK TO YOUR CUSTOMERS Starting a dialogue with your target audiences and asking them what they want is a simple way to gain more insight into the current zeitgeist. You can team up with enthusiastic readers and customers to come up with new ideas for developing your own products and business models. 6. FORM ALLIANCES Its important to partner with other industries. Its a good way to think beyond the boundaries of the content and media industries. Cross-industry partners work together across disciplines in think tanks to identify problems and seek out solutions.

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MARKET CLIMATE SURVEY ON THE FUTURE OF CONTENT & MEDIA ADDENDUM ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Britta Friedrich Frankfurt Book Fair Director Events & Programme FRANKFURT BOOK FAIR +49 (0) 69 2102 145 friedrich@book-fair.com

Andreas Wichmann newthinking communications GmbH Expert in innovation and collaboration +49 (0) 30 31801243 andreas.wichmann@newthinking.com

IMPRINT Frankfurt Book Fair Director Events & Programme Britta Friedrich Braubachstrae 16 60311 Frankfurt am Main Germany T +49 (0) 69 2102-145 E friedrich@book-fair.com

LAYOUT Andreas Wichmann

This project has been licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported Licence. To view a copy of the licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/
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