Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 26, 26 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 26, 26 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Unemployment Claims increased to 343,000 for w/e on 19 July. German Ifo Business Climate rose by 0.3 points to 106.2 106.2-mark in July. UKs Prelim GDP gained by 0.6 percent in second quarter of 2013. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today on account of mixed economic data from US in yesterdays trading session. Further, rise in Japans inflation exerted downside pressure on market sentiments. t Claims increased by 7,000 to 343,000 for the week US Unemployment th ending on 19 July as against a rise of 336,000 in prior week. Durable Goods Orders rose by 4.2 percent in June from earlier rise of 3.7 percent in May. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in the later part of the trade. Further, favorable durable goods orders data from US exerted downside pressure on the curr currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of increase in jobless claims data from the US. The DX touched an intra intra-day low of 81.71 and closed at 82.05 on Thursday. yesterdays trading The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.5 percent in yesterda session. The currency appreciated on the back of Reserve Bank of India measures lowering the amount banks can borrow or lend under its daily liquidity window. However, sharp upside in currency was capped on account of dollar demand from importers ters towards the end of the trading session. Additionally, weak domestic markets and strength in the DX in early part of the trade prevented gains in the Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day day high of 58.725 and closed at 58.95 on Thursday. nth of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.6156.90 crores For the month th ($1026.74 million) as on 25 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.66,021.40 crores ($12,474.10 million) till 25 July 2013. UKs Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased creased by 0.6 percent in Q2 of 2013 as against a rise of 0.3 percent in Q1 of 2013. Index of Services remained unchanged at 0.8 percent in the month of May. Japans Tokyo Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.3 percent in July as against a rise of 0.2 percent in June. National Core CPI rose to 0.4 percent in the current month.
th

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 58.95 Prev day 0.5

as on 25 July, 2013 w-o-w 1.3 m-o-m 1.2 y-o-y -5.9

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3276

0.6

1.3

1.5

8.1

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.05

-0.4 0.4

-1.1

-1.3

3.3

5907.5

-1.4 1.4

-2.2

5.3

15.6

SENSEX

19804.8

-1.4 1.4

-1.6

6.3

8.3

DJIA

15555.6

0.1

0.0

3.5

22.7

S&P

1690.3

0.3

0.1

6.4

26.3

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated around 0.6 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, favorable economic data from the region supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, recovery in global market sentiments in later part of the trade acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched an intra-day day high of 1.3295 and closed at 1.3276 against the dollar on Thursday. Spanish Unemployment Rate declined to 26.3 percent in Q1 of 2013 as against rise of 27.2 percent in prior quarter. German Ifo Business iness Climate increased by 0.3 points to 106.2-mark 106.2 in July from 105.9-level in June.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 26, 26 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices increased around 0.9 percent yesterday on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, recovery in global market sentiments acted as a positive factor for prices. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of decline in SPDR gold holdings to 927.35 tonnes which is at lowest level since February 2009. The yellow metal touched an intra intra-day high of $1337.41/oz and closed at $1333/oz /oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices rose around 0.6 percent but appreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp gains and closed at Rs.27, Rs.27,404/10 gms after touching an intra-day high of Rs.27,448/10 /10 gms on Thursday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1333.0 Prev. day 0.9 as on 25 July, 2013 WoW 3.8 MoM 4.4 YoY -17.5

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

27250.0

-1.3

2.6

1.6

-9.0

1326.0

-0.7

3.3

3.7

-18.0

$/oz

1319.7

-1.2

2.7

8.9

-16.3

Rs /10 gms

27404.0

0.6

2.8

3.2

-8.0

Silver
Market Highlights - Silver (% change) Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with weakness in the DX DX, Spot silver prices increased around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session. However, downside in the base metals group capped sharp gains in the prices. . The white metal touched an intra intra-day high of $20.31/oz and closed at $20.20 in yesterdays trade. .2 percent but appreciation On the domestic front, prices rose around 0.2 in the Rupee capped sharp gains and closed at Rs.41, Rs.41,438/kg after touching an intra-day high of Rs.41,542 on Thursday.
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 20.2 41530.0 Prev day 0.3 -1.8

Source: Reuters

as on 25 July, 2013 WoW 4.5 1.5 MoM 3.2 -1.8 YoY -26.5 -21.7

$/oz $/ oz

1992.0 20.1

-2.3 0.7

2.2 3.6

0.8 3.6

-28.4 -26.6

Outlook
Precious metal prices are expected to trade on a higher note in todays trade, taking cues from rally in prices in yesterdays trade. Additionally, weakness in the DX will support an upside in prices. . However, decline in SPDR holdings coupled with mixed global market sentiments will cap sharp gains in prices. Appreciation preciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp upside movement in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for Ju July 25, 2013 Support 1323/1310 27290/27130 20.10/19.88 41215/40885 Resistance 1339/1353 27564/27724 20.43/20.65 41766/42100

Rs / kg

41438.0

0.2

2.4

1.9

-22.1

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 26, 26 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trade taking cues from favorable German business climate and rise in UKs GDP data showing signs of economic growth which led to expectations of rise in demand for the fuel. Further, weakness in the DX also supported an upside in prices. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on the back of mixed data from the US. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day high of $105.87/bbl and closed at $105.50/oz 0/oz in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, MCX crude August contract dropped by 0.1 percent on account of appreciation ion in the Rupee and crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of Rs.6,174/bbl /bbl and closed at Rs.6,2 Rs.6,261/bbl on Thursday. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Sep 13) ICE Brent Crude (Sep13) MCX Crude (Aug 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 109.2 105.5 Prev. day -0.1 0.1 WoW -1.5 -2.4 as on 25 July, 2013 MoM 7.3 8.7 YoY 3.4 18.6

$/bbl

107.7

0.4

-1.0

6.3

2.3

Rs/bbl

6261.0

-0.1

-3.1

10.0

25.3

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (July 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.649 216.3 Prev. day -1.5 -1.7 WoW -4.23 -5.55

as on 25 July, 2013 MoM -0.14 -1.50 YoY 18.74 25.98

Source: Reuters

Natural Gas
Nymex natural gas prices decline around 1.5 percent yesterday taking cues from rise in US natural gas inventories. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of warm winter weather conditions led to expectations of increase in gas demand for air condition purposes which prevented sharp fall in prices. Ga Gas prices touched an intra-day day low of $3.64/mmbtu and closed at $3.649/mmbtu in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices slipped around 1.7 percent on the back of appreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.216.30/mmbtu after touching an intra-day low ow of Rs.215.20/mmbtu on Thursday. EIA Inventories Data US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly inventories yesterday and US natural gas inventory increased by 41 billion cubic feet (bcf) which stood at 2.786 trillion cubic feet fo for the week ending on 19thJuly 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a higher note on the back of declining trend in US and API crude oil inventories. Further, weakness in the DX coupled with expectations of favorable economic data from the US in evening session session. Further, sharp upside in prices will be capped as a result of mixed global market sentiments. In the Indian markets, appreciation preciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp rise in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Aug13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for July 25, 2013 Support 105.10/104.50 6235/6200 Resistance 106.30/107.0 6296/6330

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 26, 26 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals complex traded on a negative note in the yesterdays trade as a result of mixed economic data from US coupled with mixed global market sentiments. . Further, mixed LME inventories scenario also exerted downside pressure on prices prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on the back of weakness in the DX. . Additionally, favorable economic data from Euro Zone and GDP growth in UK prevented sharp fall in prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee exerted downside pressure in prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (July13) Rs /kg 105.5 -1.7 -0.4 1.7 2.2 $/tonne 1824.0 -1.2 1.1 2.6 -2.8 Rs/kg 417.5 -0.5 0.5 3.5 -0.3 $/tonne Last 7010.0 Prev. day -0.1 as on 25 July, 2013 WoW 1.5 MoM -10.7 YoY -6.1

Copper
Copper prices traded on a negative note te in the yesterdays trade and declined around 0.1 percent on the back of decline in US core durable goods order data and rise in US jobless claims claims. Further, mixed global markets also added downside pressure on prices prices. However, sharp downside in prices was restricted as a result of decline in LME copper inventories by 0.8 percent which stood at 622,950 tonnes coupled with weakness in the DX. . The red metal touched an intra-day low of $6942.5/tonne 42.5/tonne and closed at $7010/tonne in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices dropped 0.5 percent on the back of appreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs. 417.50/kg 0/kg after touching an intra-day low of Rs.413.40/kg on Thursday. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metals group to trade on mixe mixed note on the back of weakness in the DX. . Further, expectations of favorable economic data from US in evening session coupled with rise in UKs GDP in yesterdays trade will support an upside in prices prices. However, sharp upside in prices will be capped as a r result of mixed global markets. In the Indian markets, appreciation preciation in the Rupee will prevent sharp rise in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc July 13 MCX Lead July 13 MCX Aluminum July13 MCX Nickel July 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for July 25, 201 2013 Support 416/411 108.70/107.60 121.60/121.0 104.60/103.70 828/823 Resistance 420/423 110.0/100.85 122.60/123.20 106.30/107.0 835/846

LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (July13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (July13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (July13)

$/tonne

14157.0

-1.2

0.9

1.8

-10.8

Rs /kg

833.0

-1.5

-0.2

0.8

-5.7

$/tonne

2074.8

0.6

1.5

1.2

10.6

Rs /kg

122.0

0.0

0.4

-0.1

17.1

$/tonne

1877.0

-0.4

0.9

1.7

3.4

Rs /kg

109.2

-0.9

-0.4

0.9

8.1

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 25th July 622,950 5,464,025 200,010 1,055,300 198,500 24th July 627,675 5,460,300 199,848 1,059,650 198,775 Actual Change -4,725 3,725 162 -4,350 -275 (%) Change -0.8 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.1
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 26, 26 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Tokyo Core CPI y/y Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Japan US

5:00pm 7:25pm

0.3% -

0.3% 84.0

0.2% 83.9

Medium Medium

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