This Week at ISN

01 - 05 Apr 2013 Iran's determined pursuit of its own geopolitical interests remains a source of concern throughout the Middle East and beyond. This week, we consider Tehran's current relations with its neighbors and whether its becoming a nuclear-capable state is defensible or not.

Whither Goes Iran?

Iran's Internal Politics
01 Apr 2013

Is the complex political system that Ayatollah Khomeini bequeathed to Iran in turmoil? The Atlantic Council's Barbara Slavin and Yasim Alem believe so. They consider what this predicament means for the Iranian electorate and external efforts to open up the country's political space. More Iran's Regional Quagmire
02 Apr 2013

Marlne Laruelle believes Iran's regional status has been compromised by the Arab Spring, ongoing civil unrest in Syria and continued tensions over its nuclear program. Indeed, Tehran could soon find itself regionally isolated to a degree that is unprecedented in its recent history. More The Saudi-Iranian Rivalry and the Future of Middle East Security
03 Apr 2013

Is Saudi Arabia synonymous with status quo'ism and Iran with revolution? According to W. Andrew Terrill, this familiar contrast may now have to be adjusted. The Arab Spring has introduced new political variables that Riyadh and Tehran must account for while pursuing their competing priorities. More Arguments for a Nuclear Iran?
04 Apr 2013

Is an Iran with nuclear weapons acceptable or even a potential good? To answer this question, Emily Landau takes Kenneth Waltz's notorious argument that nuclear weapons may enhance security and applies it to the Middle East. The CSS's Oliver Thrnert, however, worries about the virtues of Waltz's approach. More A Nuclear Iran: The Spur to a Regional Arms Race?
05 Apr 2013

After describing Tehran's strategic rationale for developing a nuclear program and assessing its ability to bring it to fruition, Amos Yadlin and Avner Golov then explore one of the many alarming scenarios that could result from a nuclear capable Iran i.e., a regional arms race. More

Security Watch
Israeli Apology to Turkey Big First Step But Not Sea Change
01 Apr 2013

After several years of mutual silence, Turkey and Israel are talking to each other again. Ross Wilson believes, however, that this latest rapprochement owes more to US diplomatic efforts than a genuine desire by Ankara and Tel Aviv to reset diplomatic relations. More

Is International Pressure Failing in Sri Lanka?

02 Apr 2013

Peace talks between the Colombian government and FARC rebels continue. Rodrigo Sandoval Araujo warns, however, that genuine progress is unlikely. After many years, both sides still remain unwilling to end the violence and build mutual trust. More Interview with Hilde Johnson, UN Special Representative for South Sudan
03 Apr 2013

Improving South Sudan's state- and nation-building capacities remains a huge task, says UN Special Representative Hilde Johnson. In this interview, she outlines the work being done by the UN mission in the world's newest state. More Georgia's Armed Forces: Army of the All or Army of the Few?
04 Apr 2013

While Georgia's politicians believe that reforming the country's armed forces is essential, they remain divided over what roles civilians should play in national defense. Eugene Kogan outlines the issues surrounding Tbilisi's military reforms and what Russia thinks about them. More Libya since Gaddafi Where Has It Been, Where Will It Go?
05 Apr

Civil strife across the Middle East and Africa has prompted local regimes to rely on mercenaries to help suppress the unrest. Liana Fix partially blames this practice on a set of ambiguous and poorly enforced international treaties that have failed to prevent it. More

ISN Blog
The Terrorist Mind
01 Apr 2013

Recent events in Mali and Algeria show that Islamist terrorists remain capable of mobilizing local communities and recruiting new members. Khaled Fattah explains how extremists continue to use narratives of alienation and frustration to beguile disaffected Muslims around the world. More The Shangpu Revolution
02 Apr

Rural land transfers have made a significant contribution to China's rapid economic growth. They may also have laid the seeds for widespread instability, warns Gordon Chang. He outlines how recent unrest in Guangdong province reflects mounting opposition to Beijing's controversial land policies.More Jordan's Forgotten Youth Problem
03 Apr 2013

According to Que Newbill, Jordan is teetering on the brink of a full-blown political crisis. The reasons are sadly familiar ones sudden price increases; dire employment prospects, especially for the young; and perceived government corruption. More Kyrgyzstan: China Muscles into Energy Market, Fueling Suspicion
04 Apr 2013

The construction of a Chinese-financed oil refinery is widely expected to end Kyrgyzstan's dependence on Russian fuel imports. In Chris Rickleton's eyes, Beijing's involvement in the project also symbolizes the larger geopolitical struggle between China and Russia in Central Asia. More A Row Over Mass Naturalizations in Cte d'Ivoire
05 Apr 2013

Cote d'Ivoire's controversial mass naturalization program for stateless people continues unabated. If left unchecked, IRIN and other likeminded observers warn, the program could fan ethnic conflict on a scale equal to the bloody political upheavals of the past. More

Video
Exploring US Military Options towards Iran In this video, three military experts discuss the probable strategic and tactical dimensions of an attack on Iran. They also consider the expected costs and consequences of an attack, and the role of military versus diplomatic and economic efforts to shape Iranian behavior. More Chinese Investment in Africa In this video, STRATFOR's Vice President of Africa Analysis, Mark Schroeder, discusses sub-Saharan Africa's two-edged dependence on Chinese investment for its economic development. More Defusing Iran's Nuclear Threat Why does Iran continue to pursue nuclear capabilities? In this video, Alireza Nader cites three major reasons revolutionary clout, national pride and a hegemonic desire to dominate not only the Persian Gulf, but also the wider Middle East. More

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