theSun | MONDAY MAY 18 2009
speak up!
Rich, strong China
good for region
comment
by B.A. Hamzah
PRIME Minister Datuk Seri Najib Abdul
Razak will visit Beijing later this month. His
father called on Mao Zedong and Zhou En
Lai in 1974 making Malaysia the first country
in Southeast Asia to recognise communist
China.
We are not privy to Najib’s agenda in
Beijing. But it is almost certain that the issue
of global economic recession will take centre
stage. China is expected to support the Inter-
national Monetary Fund in combating the
financial crisis. The G20 summit in March
decided to beef up the IMF with US$750 bil-
lion (RM2.6 trillion).
Malaysia should support China to get
more voting power in the IMF before the 2011
quota review. Currently, China has a 3.75
quota against US’ 17%, Japan’s 6.2% and 32%
for Europe. In fact, the combined quota for
Brazil, Russia, India and China, four leading
emerging economies, is only 9.62%.
Likewise, the issues of trade and invest-
ment will also feature in the discussion. China
has substantial trade with the region. For
example, the volume of Asean-China trade
has expanded more than five-fold between
1997 and 2005; in 2007 the Asean-China trade
volume had surpassed the US$200 billion
(RM712 billion) target.
Barring further major financial impedi-
ments, regional trade will receive a boost
from the 2004 Asean-China Free Trade Area
Agreement and the decision in April
2009 to sign the investment agree-
ment, its final chapter. The FTA with Malaysia should support China to
China which takes effect in 2010 will get more voting power in the IMF
be the world’s largest with a popula-
tion of 1.8 billion people and gross before
domestic product of US$2 trillion
(RM7 trillion).
Bilateral trade between Malaysia and
China exceeded US$50 million (RM178
million) in 2008 two years ahead of a 2006
forecast. However, there is one downside.
According to Malaysian statistics, the trade
balance is in China’s favour (RM1.8 billion in
2003, RM6.98 billion in 2004, RM14.7 billion
in 2005, RM15.5 billion in 2006 and RM11.8
billion 2007). While Najib should have a
ready answer to rebut China’s statistical
discrepancy, he should start thinking of new
mechanisms on how to improve on the trade
balance.
Najib’s visit will further strengthen
bilateral relations and reinforce regional
security. Sustainable regional security order
can only be achieved with the inclusion of
China. Sidelining China or supporting the US
policy of containment is bound to be coun-
terproductive. Giving China more breathing
space in the regional security architecture
as it grows stronger is the correct way of
engaging Beijing.
There are sceptics who see China as a
hegemon and a military threat. They point to
China’s modernisation of its Peoples Libera-
tion Army (PLA), its large defence outlay and
a more assertive policy to police its waters and
the establishment of a string of military bases
astride the sea lanes (CIA describes them as
“a string of pearls strategy”) stretching from
Africa through the Middle East, South Asia to
the Far East) as troubling.
The sceptics refuse to acknowledge that
China’s defence expenditure is relatively low;
about 3% of US spending and 15% of Japan’s,
if the official exchange rate is accounted for.
The PLA spends per soldier much less than
its counterpart in Israel or Singapore. As a
ratio of the gross national product, at 6%
Singapore maintains a higher ratio.
So much time is spent on speculating on
China’s military intention. It is more produc-
tive to talk about its positive contribution to
regional security and the world’s financial
crisis. Najib must resist joining the China
bashing choir. The fear of pax sinica is un-
11
founded. The absence of historical precedents
for guidance to relate with a new China is not
grounds for crying wolf.
A rich and strong China is good for the
region. There are also exaggerated claims
that China’s race for offshore hydrocarbon
resources in the South China Sea will push
China and Southeast Asian countries into
contention and that China can disrupt the
sea lanes in the disputed area. Although
China has pressured some international oil
companies from exploration in the Spratlys, it
has not interfered, for example, with similar
activities in Brunei, Sabah and Sarawak. Of
course, China has the military capability to
disrupt the sea lanes but it will be perilous.
There are also discordant voices claiming
that China does not respect the freedom of
navigation on the high sea. They point to the
incidents in March involving US spy vessels
the Impeccable and the Bowditch. Truth is:
these vessels were conducting unauthorised
military activities in China’s Exclusive Eco-
nomic Zone.
The question of overlapping claims in the
South China Sea is certain to be on the agenda.
Najib should lend an ear to China’s protest (if
it has not done so) to the joint submission by
Malaysia and Vietnam (to extend their respec-
tive continental shelf) in the southern part
of the South China Sea to the Commission
on the Limits of the Continental Shelf of the
United Nations on May 6. This submission
was made pursuant to Article 76(8) of the UN
Convention on the Law of the Sea.
While it may be insensitive to ask China
to rationalise its 1947 nine-dotted maritime
the 2011 quota review.
boundary with coordinates in accordance
with state practice and international law, a
soft reminder of its obligations under the 2002
Declaration on the Conduct of State Parties in
the South China Sea may not rock the boat.
Beijing is likely to increase naval presence
in the Spratlys to prevent unauthorised mili-
tary activities by unfriendly powers (read US).
I think we can believe China that these naval
vessels and fishing boats are not designed to
intimidate local powers. With the exception
of a few cases involving mainly Vietnam and
the Philippines, China has not resorted to use
of force in the Spratlys since it occupied the
Mischief Reef in 1995.
China’s strategic interest in Southeast Asia
has changed over the years after the cold
war. It is no longer interested in subverting
the region. On the contrary, China counts
on Southeast Asian states as regional allies;
an important market for its manufactured
products, a source of capital and primary
commodities like rubber and palm oil. While
many in Southeast Asia may still be suspi-
cious of China’s military motives, the younger
generation has little memory of China’s hos-
tile past and most would embrace China as a
friendly economic powerhouse.
The refusal to recognise changes in
China’s geo-political outlook, its economic
prowess as well as the desire to be involved
in the mainstream of international politics
and take part in bigger issues in international
relations like helping to solve the economic
downturn has blinded many. Many are stuck
with the old China syndrome.
Critics forget that with numerous domes-
tic and external problems China remains a
vulnerable power. Only those who subscribe
to the notion, according to one analyst, that
“Fu Manchu is alive and well in the Middle
Kingdom” dreaming of dominating the world
by military means believe that China poses a
global military threat.
The writer is senior research fellow, Faculty of
Arts and Social Sciences, University of Malaya.
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