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I.P

B.S.T Kariyawasam

220 A, Hiyare East, Hiyare Galle

Coordinator IPGS KDU

Submission of the assignment of Management Science Assignment of Management Science is forwarded herewith for marking please.

Signature

I.P B.S.T Kariyawasam KDU/BSc/B/6/18

Management Science
B4125

Assignment: Management Science

I.P B.S.T KARIYAWASAM KDU/BSc/B/6/18

LECTURER: Mr Ramesh Rajasuriya

BACHELOR OF SCIENCE DEGREE IN MANAGEMENT

PROGRAMME VI-YEARIII-SEMESTER I

1) According the Problem, Scientific calculators denoted by X while graphic calculators are denoted by Y. Problem formulation is as follows. Maximize Z = 5Y-2X (objective function) X+Y 200 (contract condition) Feasible region X 100, Y 80 (demand constraint) X 200,Y 170 (production constraint) X,Y 0 non negativity constraint

290 280 250 240 230 220 21 0 200 1 90 1 80 1 70 1 60 1 50 1 40 1 30 1 20 1 1 0 1 00 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1 0

X=100

X=200

Y=170 C D

B Y=80
A

E X+Y=200

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

220

230

point X Y profit A 120 80 160 B 100 100 300 C 100 170 650 D 200 170 450 E 200 90 50 By substituting the X and y coordination to the profit can be derived According to this, the most profitable combination is 170 graphic calculators and 100 scientific calculators. 2 ) Two types of cabinets X and y Maximize the Storage Z= 8X+12Y (objective function) 72 6X+8Y (space constraint) 140 10X+20Y (budget constraint) X,Y >0 non negativity constraint Formulate in to Simplex method Z= 8X+12Y + 0 S1+ 0S2 72 6X+8Y +S1 140 10X+20Y + S2 X,Y, S1,S2 0 non negativity constraint As following simplex method, 8, X type cabinet and 3, Y type cabinets should be purchased under constraints to maximize storage and then 100 cubic feet storage can be obtained.

Cj

basic

12

solution

X Cb 0 0 S1 S2 Zj Cj - Zj Y S1 Zj Cj - Zj X Y Zj Cj - Zj
6 10 0 8 2 6 2 1 0 8 0

S1

S2

12 0

8 12

8 20 0 12 1 0 12 0 0 1 12 0

1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1/2 -1/4 1 -1

0 1 0 0 1/20 -2/5 12/20 0 -1/10 9/20 23/5 -23/5

72 140 0 7 16 84 8 3 100

9 7

14 8

3) Finding the initial feasible solutions by means of Vogel approximation PROJECT ( Interest Rate ) BANK W A
20,000 16

B
18

C
19

D
17

MAX CREDIT iteration $20,000 1 1 1 1 1

10,000

15

17

20

16

10,000

1 1 1 -

17

20,000

16

18

18

20,000

1 1 1 1

10,000

18

10,000

19

19

10,000

18

30,000

1 0 0 0 0

Dummy

20,000

10,000

30,000

0 0 0 -

AMOUNT REQUIRED

$40,000

30,000

20,000

20,000

110,000

15 15 1 1 2

16 16 1 2 -

18 -

16 16 1 1 1

Applying the MODI method

PROJECT ( Interest Rate ) V1=16 BANK U1=0 W

20,000

V2=17 B
16 18

V3=16 C
19

V4=16 D
17

A $20,000 1
16

3
20

U2=-1 U3=-1

X Y

10,000

15

17

1
17 20,000 16

5
18

1
18

10,000 20,000

2 U4=2 Z
10,000 18 10,000 19

3
19 10,000

1
0 20,000 0

18

30,000

U5=-16

Dummy

0 $40,000

+
30,000

10,000

-1

30,000

AMOUNT REQUIRED

20,000

20,000

110000

In this Matrix, we can observe a minus opportunity cost and that cell should be given the maximum allocation without unbalancing the closed loop starting from B: Dummy, cell to the B: Dummy, cell.

This is the latest cell allocation, with new opportunity cost. I add 0 for the cell A: Dummy for obtaining the eight allocations due to the degeneracy. PROJECT ( Interest Rate ) V1=16 BANK U1=0 W
20,000

V2=16 B
16 0 18 2

V3=16 C
19 3

V4=16 D
17 1

A $20,000

U2=-1 U3=0

X Y

10,000

15 0

17 2

20 5

16 1

10,000 20,000

17 1

20,000

16 0

18 2

18

U4=2

10,000

18 0

19 1

19 1

20,000

18 0

30,000

U5=-16

Dummy
AMOUNT REQUIRED

0 $40,000

0 0

10,000

0 0

20,000

0 0

0 0

30,000 110000

30,000

20,000

20,000

According to this Matrix Project A can be financed by Bank W, X, and Z. The ratio of funding for project A worth of $ 40000 From W bank $ 20000 From X bank -- $ 10000 From Z bank $ 10000 The ratio of funding for project B worth of $ 30000 From Y bank $ 20000 (2/3 of the total project is feasible).The balance of $ 10000 cannot be funded. Project C is infeasible Project D can be totally funded from bank B.

4) a)

Time Activity Activity description Immediate predecessor A Select the computer model Design input/output system Design monitoring system Assemble computer hardware Develop the main programs Develop input/output routines Create data base Install the system Test and implement Most optimistic 4 Most likely 6 Most pessimistic 8 6 4 0.66666667 0.44444444 0 6 6 Expected time LF Range SD Variance Slack LS

15

10

1.66666667

2.77777778

14

14

12

1.33333333

1.77777778

14

28

14

15

20

25

20

10

1.66666667

2.77777778

38

34

10

18

26

18

16

2.66666667

7.11111111

32

32

F G H I

C E D, F G, H

8 4 1 6

9 8 2 7

16 12 3 8

10 8 2 7

8 8 2 2

1.33333333 1.33333333 0.33333333 0.33333333 11.3333333

1.77777778 1.77777778 0.11111111 0.11111111 18.6666667

6 0 4 0

38 40 40 47

24 40 36 47

b) Here the critical path is ABEGI

expected time is 47 days

c) The total variances for critical path (T) = 12.222222 std. dev. T = 12.222222 = 3.496029

55-47 / 3.496029= 2.2883102, Z= 0.4887 (by referring normal distribution table) , Now from Standard Normal tables Z= 0.4207. P ( 55) = P (Z 2.2883102) Therefore, 0.5+ 0.4207= 0.9207, the probability of meeting 55-day-conditon is 92.02%

5)

Activity A B C D E F G H I J K L M

Early start 0 0 0 0 9 4 15 19 16 23 19 29 35

Early finish 9 4 15 9 16 9 19 23 19 26 29 35 36

Latest start 7 6 0 9 16 10 15 22 23 29 19 29 35

Latest finish 16 10 15 19 23 15 19 26 26 35 29 35 36

Slack 7 6 0 9 7 6 0 3 7 9 0 0 0

Being slack is zero; here the critical path is CGKLM

6) a) (M/ M/1) QUEUING MODEL

The M/M/1 queuing model is a queuing model where the arrivals follow a poison process, service times are exponentially distributed and there is one server. This is the simplest one among the queuing models.

The assumptions of M/M/1 queuing model are as follows: 1. The number of customer arriving in a time interval t follows a poison process with parameter . 2. The interval between any two successive arrivals is exponentially distributed with parameters . 3. The time taken to complete a single service is exponentially distributed with parameter . 4. The number of server is one. 5. Although not explicitly stated both the population and the queue size can be infinity. 6. The order of service is assumed to be First Come First Served. (FCFS).

If / < 1 the steady state probabilities exist and P n the number of customers in the system follows a geometric distribution with parameter / (also known as traffic intensity).

b) =45, =60 c) Po =1 ( / ) = 1-(45/60) = 0.25

d) Pn=(1 / ) ( / )
n

P5 =(1 / ) ( / )5 = 1-(45/60) (45/ 60)5 =0.593 For 10 P10 =(1 / ) ( / )10 =1-(45/60) (45/ 60)10 =0.01407 e waiting in the system

= 1/60-45 =1/15 =1/15 x60= 4 minutes

Waiting in the queue

=45/60(60-45) = 0.05 = 0.05 x60 = 3 minutes Average number of the in the system =45/(60-45) =3

Average number of the customers in the queue.

2
2

= 45 /60(60-45) =2.25 Approximately 2 persons