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  • Kaidah Bayes

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    Anggi Nurbana
    211 Ansichten2 Seiten
    The document calculates probabilities of drawing different colored marbles (red, yellow, green) from an urn containing marbles using Bayes' theorem. It determines the probabilities of drawing: 1) a red marble, 2) a yellow marble, 3) a green marble, and the conditional probabilities of drawing marbles of different colors given the total marbles drawn. It then uses these probabilities to calculate the probability of drawing marbles of each color given the marbles drawn were red, yellow or green.

    Originalbeschreibung:

    Soal Kaidah Bayes

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    The document calculates probabilities of drawing different colored marbles (red, yellow, green) from an urn containing marbles using Bayes' theorem. It determines the probabilities of drawing: 1) a red marble, 2) a yellow marble, 3) a green marble, and the conditional probabilities of drawing marbles of different colors given the total marbles drawn. It then uses these probabilities to calculate the probability of drawing marbles of each color given the marbles drawn were red, yellow or green.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Als XLSX, PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
    Markieren Sie unangemessene Inhalte
    211 Ansichten2 Seiten

    Kaidah Bayes

    Hochgeladen von

    Anggi Nurbana
    The document calculates probabilities of drawing different colored marbles (red, yellow, green) from an urn containing marbles using Bayes' theorem. It determines the probabilities of drawing: 1) a red marble, 2) a yellow marble, 3) a green marble, and the conditional probabilities of drawing marbles of different colors given the total marbles drawn. It then uses these probabilities to calculate the probability of drawing marbles of each color given the marbles drawn were red, yellow or green.

    Copyright:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Als XLSX, PDF, TXT herunterladen oder online auf Scribd lesen
    Markieren Sie unangemessene Inhalte
    von 2

    C.

    Pengambilan Kelereng Pada Kaidah Bayes


    1. Berdasarkan Teori
    Peluang
    30x
    Kelereng
    Jumlah
    JK
    T
    TT
    Merah
    1/3
    5
    3
    8
    Kuning
    1/3
    8
    4
    12
    Hijau
    1/3
    4
    6
    10

    1
    17
    13
    30

    Tentukan :
    a. P(KM)

    =
    =

    1/3
    0.333

    b. P(KK)

    =
    =

    1/3
    0.333

    c. P(KH)

    =
    =

    1/3
    0.333

    d. P(T | KM)

    5 / 30
    P(T KM )

    1/ 3
    P( KM )

    0.5

    e. P(T | KK)

    P (T KK )
    P ( KK )

    8 / 30

    1/ 3

    0.8

    f. P(T | KH)

    4 / 30
    P (T KH )

    1/ 3
    P ( KH )

    0.4

    g. P(TT | KM)

    P (TT KM ) 3 / 30

    P ( KM )
    1/ 3

    0.3

    h. P(TT | KK)

    P (TT KK )
    4 / 30
    P ( KK )

    1/ 3

    0.4

    i. P(TT | KH)

    P (TT KH )
    P ( KH )

    0.6

    j. P(T)

    = {P(KM)xP(T | KM)+{P(KK)xP(T | KK)}+{P(KH)xP(T | KH)}


    =
    0.567

    6 / 30

    1/ 3

    k. P(KM | T)

    P( KM T ) P(T | KM) x P(KM)

    P(T )
    P(T )

    0.294

    l. P(KK | T)

    P(KK T ) P(T | KK) x P(KK)

    P(T )
    P(T )

    0.471

    m. P(KH | T)

    P(KH T ) P(T | KH) x P(KH)

    P(T )
    P(T )

    0.235

    n. P(TT)

    = {P(KM)xP(TT | KM)+{P(KK)xP(TT | KK)}+{P(KH)xP(TT | KH)}


    =
    0.433

    o. P(KM | TT)

    P(KM TT ) P(TT | KM) x P(KM)

    P(TT )
    P(TT )

    0.231

    p. P(KK | TT)

    P( KK TT ) P(TT | KK) x P(KK)

    P(TT )
    P(TT )

    0.308

    q. P(KH | TT)

    P( KH TT ) P(TT | KH) x P(KH)

    P(TT )
    P(TT )

    0.462

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