Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
2009 Location, location, location 2011 Timing, timing, timing 2013 Cash, cash, cash
Presented by:
2 0 1 2 Y E AR I N R E V I E W
A W I N F O R M . NG UYEN AND C. HUYNH
Wrestler Carol Huynh brought home Olympic bronze for wrestling. Michael Nguyen won a silver in Olympics gymnastics
CBRE | Page 2
2 0 1 2 Y E AR I N R E V I E W
MORE SURPRISES
Marc in Bhutan
Where it all started for CBRE 10 years ago in Nam Ky Khoi Nghia Street, District 1, HCMC
Richard Leech runs 90k in 9.5 hours at the Comrades Ultra Marathon in South Africa
CBRE | Page 3
V I E T N AM E C O N O M Y
2 0 1 2 KEY I NDI CATO RS
2009 GDP Growth Rate (y-o-y) Lending Rate Inflation (Average, y-o-y) Exports Imports Gold Price (per Tael) US$/VND (Commercial banks) FDI in Real Estate (committed) Committed FDI Implemented FDI 5.3% 12.75%
Down from 21% in Q3
2010 6.8%
2011 5.9%1
2012 e 5.03%
2013f 5.68%4
16%-17.0%
(Late 2010)
22% - 25%2
12% - 15%
12% - 13%5
9.2%
(Dec10: 11.8%)
18,497 (Dec. 31, 2009) US$7.6 bil US$22.6 bil US$10 bil
1
19,500
(Dec. 31, 2010) Devalued by 5.4% vs. Dec. 2009
21,036
(Dec.31, 2011) Devalued by 7.9% vs Dec. 2010)
20,855
(Dec.31, 2012)
21,5006
US$11 bil
US$11 bil1
Source: Historical data by GSO, 1GSO , 2SBV, 3SJC, 4Ministry of Planning & Investment, 5ANZ, 6HSBC
CBRE | Page 4
2 0 1 2 Y E AR I N R E V I E W
THE NEG ATI VE
Residential prices continued to fall.......
Luxury 5% 2% 2009 2010 2011 2012 High-end Mid-end Affordable
30,000 25,000 20,000
Unit
Source: CBRE
....leading to impacts in other sectors too. i.e. Falling Serviced Apartment rentals.
Grade A Rents $40 $35 Grade B Rents
$30
50,000
$25
0
Q1
Q2 2011
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2 2012
Q3
Q4
CBRE | Page 5
2 0 1 2 Y E AR I N R E V I E W
THE POSITIVE
HCMC Office Rent Cycle appears to be approaching a bottom. Transactions visible at affordable projects the rise of the first time buyer?
HCM City
Hoang Anh Thanh Binh (P1): Total unit: ~528 Sold rate: ~67%
40 30 20 10 0
No. of Unit
Sunview 3: Total unit:: ~330 Sold rate: ~80% Buyers: Young Professionals, Young Couples/Families, First Time Buyers
CBRE | Page 6
Pandora City
PowerBowl 388
CBRE | Page 7
Global reach, local expertise Unsurpassed connectivity and civic partnerships Highest caliber operations Customised client care programs Impeccable grounds and building environment Achievable real estate solutions Highest ethical standards Innovative tools and resources Robust procurement platform Global footprint Proactive client relations and retention Commitment to philanthropy Superior talent Personal touch Stringent quality control Performance and satisfaction benchmarking Fully integrated, comprehensive platform World-class services Unmatched connectivity Ambassadors of quality Financial integrity and accountability Superior sunstainability standards Community minded and charitable Building relationships, tracking trends Dynamic building management and communications Global excellence, local knowledge Proprietary General Management Council Thinking innovatively, but acting practically Unprecedented speed to market Performance and satisfaction benchmarking Unparalleled research capability Professionally trained staff Proprietary General Management Council Superior sunstainability standards Global reach, local expertise Unsurpassed connectivity and civic partnerships Commitment to confidentiality Highest caliber operations Proactive client relations and retention Commitment to philanthropy Superior talent Stringent quality control Global footprint Fully integrated, comprehensive procurement platform Ambassadors of quality Professionally trained staff Building relationships, tracking trends Commitment to confidentiality World-class services Unprecedented speed to market Thinking innovatively, but acting practically Global excellence, local knowledge Unparalleled research capability Superior talent CBRE | Page 8
Region
10
Asia Pacific
0
World United States Western Europe
-5
-10
2002-Q1 2003-Q1 2004-Q1 2005-Q1 2006-Q1 2007-Q1 2008-Q1 2009-Q1 2010-Q1 2011-Q1 2012-Q1
CBRE | Page 9
GDP % Growth
CBRE | Page 10
2012 F
Taiwan Philippines South Korea Australia New Zealand Thailand Japan South-East Asia Asia Pacific World
2 0 1 3 T O B E B E T T E R T H AN 2 0 1 2
2013 F
V I E T N AM vs . C H I N A a n d I N D O N E S I A
Vietnam 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2003 2005 2007 2009
China
China
2011
2013
2015
Indonesia
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: Vietnamese General Statistics Office; World Bank; Oxford Economics
CBRE | Page 11
50
100
150
200
250
CBRE | Page 12
2001 Q1 = 100
2001.1 2001.2 2001.3 2001.4 2002.1 2002.2 2002.3 2002.4 2003.1 2003.2 2003.3 2003.4 2004.1 2004.2 2004.3 2004.4 2005.1 2005.2 2005.3 2005.4 2006.1 2006.2 2006.3 2006.4 2007.1 2007.2 2007.3 2007.4 2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2 2009.3 2009.4 2010.1 2010.2 2010.3 2010.4 2011.1 2011.2 2011.3 2011.4 2012.1 2012.2 2012.3
CBRE | Page 13
-30%
-20%
-10%
Year-Over-Year % Change
2002.1 2002.2 2002.3 2002.4 2003.1 2003.2 2003.3 2003.4 2004.1 2004.2 2004.3 2004.4 2005.1 2005.2 2005.3 2005.4 2006.1 2006.2 2006.3 2006.4 2007.1 2007.2 2007.3 2007.4 2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2 2009.3 2009.4 2010.1 2010.2 2010.3 2010.4 2011.1 2011.2 2011.3 2011.4 2012.1 2012.2 2012.3
25
20
US$ billion
15
10
0
2005.1 2005.2 2005.3 2005.4 2006.1 2006.2 2006.3 2006.4 2007.1 2007.2 2007.3 2007.4 2008.1 2008.2 2008.3 2008.4 2009.1 2009.2 2009.3 2009.4 2010.1 2010.2 2010.3 2010.4 2011.1 2011.2 2011.3 2011.4 2012.1 2012.2 2012.3
Deals below US$100 mil Deals between US$250 mil and US$1 bil
Source: CBRE Research
Deals between US$100 mil and US$250 mil Deals over US$1 bil
CBRE | Page 14
10,000
12,000
14,000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
-2,000
AS I A N O F F I C E M AR K E T S L O W S
Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q2 05 Q3 05 Q4 05 Q1 06 Q2 06 Q3 06 Q4 06 Q1 07 Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11 Q2 11 Q3 11 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Cyclical Low
Cyclical High
Q2 2012
*The cyclic low is the most recent low prior to the onset of the GFC; the cyclic high is the high experienced following the cyclic low. Source: CBRE Research
CBRE | Page 16
Global reach, local expertise Unsurpassed connectivity and civic partnerships Highest caliber operations Customised client care programs Impeccable grounds and building environment Achievable real estate solutions Highest ethical standards Innovative tools and resources Robust procurement platform Global footprint Proactive client relations and retention Commitment to philanthropy Superior talent Personal touch Stringent quality control Performance and satisfaction benchmarking Fully integrated, comprehensive platform World-class services Unmatched connectivity Ambassadors of quality Financial integrity and accountability Superior sunstainability standards Community minded and charitable Building relationships, tracking trends Dynamic building management and communications Global excellence, local knowledge Proprietary General Management Council Thinking innovatively, but acting practically Unprecedented speed to market Performance and satisfaction benchmarking Unparalleled research capability Professionally trained staff Proprietary General Management Council Superior sunstainability standards Global reach, local expertise Unsurpassed connectivity and civic partnerships Commitment to confidentiality Highest caliber operations Proactive client relations and retention Commitment to philanthropy Superior talent Stringent quality control Global footprint Fully integrated, comprehensive procurement platform Ambassadors of quality Professionally trained staff Building relationships, tracking trends Commitment to confidentiality World-class services Unprecedented speed to market Thinking innovatively, but acting practically Global excellence, local knowledge Unparalleled research capability Superior talent CBRE | Page 17
HCMC
V I E T N AM M AC R O P I C T U R E
COMMITTED FDI
16% 1%
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
Source: Vietnam Ministry and Investment Real Estate of Planning Manufacturing
14%
2010 2011 2012
70%
Construction
Others
Construction Others
2012 13.0 1.9
CBRE | Page 18
V I E T N AM F U T U R E S U P P L Y
ACCO RDI NG TO BCI ASI A
All Future Projects (2013-2022) Office Retail Hospitality and SA Residential Total Y-o-Y change Projects Under Construction Office Retail Hospitality and SA Resi Total Y-o-Y change Source: www.bciasia.com; CBRE
CBRE | Page 19
HCMC 309 130 47 444 930 31.4% HCMC 142 51 20 190 403 7.5%
Hanoi 563 314 65 588 1530 155.4% Hanoi 165 82 15 177 439 77.0%
Nha Trang (Khanh Hoa) 16 6 51 29 102 29.1% Nha Trang (Khanh Hoa) 6 2 9 6 23 -4.2%
H C M C I N V E S T M E N T C AP I T A L
DI F F I CUL TI ES ACCE SSI NG CAPI T AL TO KEEP DEVELOPMENT LIMITED
Retail
Hotel
Serviced Apartment
Source: CBRE
CBRE | Page 20
V I E T N AM I N V E S T M E N T T R E N D S
DEAL S W I L L HAPPE N
Vietnam remains on the radar. Japanese to be the pre-eminent FDI player, though the real estate
sector holds broader appeal across Asia and further afield.
Syndicated deals will become the norm for groups already present. Myanmar is a side show.
CBRE | Page 21
HCMC CONDOMINIUM
UNSOLD STOCK
Leading Fund Manager 35,000 unsold units HCMC Construction Department 18,000 unsold units
(NOT covering delayed projects)
Other sources
CBRE
HCMC Sold vs. Unsold Condominium (Units)
Total Sold
Unsold stock increased in 2011 BUT remained stable in 2012 Developers, in the majority, restrained (or were restricted) from launching product less pressure on unsold stock
HCMC: 2,900 units sold in the primary markets in 2012 Hanoi: 5,000 units sold in the primary markets in 2012
Source: CBRE
Note: unsold stock, by CBREs definition, is stock that have been launched by developers but unable to find buyers. This excludes stock offered on the secondary market (i.e. offered for sale by individuals) Source: CBRE discussions with representatives of developers and trading floors
CBRE | Page 22
HCMC CONDOMINIUM
2 0 1 2 Y - O - Y PRI CE CHANG E: - 6 %
DISTRICT 12
CBRE | Page 23
HCMC CONDOMINIUM
AL TER N ATI VE I NVESTM ENT O PTI O NS
Investment Option Stock Market (VN Index) Bank Deposit Gold (SJC) Condominium Q4/2011 MOST favoured 2012 Total Return 17.1% in 2012 (*); 21.5% for last 45 days 12% down to 8% (**) 5.9% (***) 7% (****)
Very attractive Education Oil, Gas & Natural Resources Real Estate Property Healthcare&Pharmaceuticals Manufacturing Agriculture Financial Services Retail Transportation and Logistics Hospitality and Leisure 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Somewhat attractive Neutral Somewhat unattractive Very unattractive
Real Estate
Q4/2012 attractive
CBRE | Page 24
HCMC CONDOMINIUM
GOVERNMENTS PROPOSED MEASURES TO SAVE THE MARKET
CBRE | Page 25
HCMC OFFICE
ABSO RPTI O N & RENT AL TRENDS
120000.0 100000.0 80000.0
NLA (sm)
HCMC OFFICE
Grade A District 1 NEW SUPPLY Grade B Decentralized
CBRE | Page 27
H C M C R E T AI L
ABSO RPTI O N & RENT AL TRENDS
Net absorption-CBD Vacant space - Non CBD 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 -20,000 Net absorption-Non CBD Rent-CBD Vacant space - CBD Rent-Non CBD $130 $80 $30 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2010
2011 GFA (sm) Project Name 111,090 -Parkson Paragon (D7) -Bitexco Financial Tower (D1) - The Crescent (D7)
-$20
2011
2012 85,000
2012
2013f
2013 126,331
-The Vista (D2) - Vincom Center A (D1) - Pandora City (Tan Phu)
-D1:Times Square - D2: The Estella, Thao Dien Pearl, Cantavil Premier -D7: Petroland Commercial and Financial Tower -Tan Binh: Pico Plaza, Saigon Airport Plaza -Phu Nhuan: Satra Eximland - Nha Be: Dragon Tower
Source: CBRE
CBRE | Page 28
GFA (sm)
Global reach, local expertise Unsurpassed connectivity and civic partnerships Highest caliber operations Customised client care programs Impeccable grounds and building environment Achievable real estate solutions Highest ethical standards Innovative tools and resources Robust procurement platform Global footprint Proactive client relations and retention Commitment to philanthropy Superior talent Personal touch Stringent quality control Performance and satisfaction benchmarking Fully integrated, comprehensive platform World-class services Unmatched connectivity Ambassadors of quality Financial integrity and accountability Superior sunstainability standards Community minded and charitable Building relationships, tracking trends Dynamic building management and communications Global excellence, local knowledge Proprietary General Management Council Thinking innovatively, but acting practically Unprecedented speed to market Performance and satisfaction benchmarking Unparalleled research capability Professionally trained staff Proprietary General Management Council Superior sunstainability standards Global reach, local expertise Unsurpassed connectivity and civic partnerships Commitment to confidentiality Highest caliber operations Proactive client relations and retention Commitment to philanthropy Superior talent Stringent quality control Global footprint Fully integrated, comprehensive procurement platform Ambassadors of quality Professionally trained staff Building relationships, tracking trends Commitment to confidentiality World-class services Unprecedented speed to market Thinking innovatively, but acting practically Global excellence, local knowledge Unparalleled research capability Superior talent CBRE | Page 29
CBRE
H C M C F E AR L E S S F O R E C AS T S
Capital Availability
1. 2.
The burden of Non Performing Loans will be the dominant play in the newspapers in 2013, the on the ground reality will be different. Cash is king. There is no knight in shining armour coming - denial will see many players isolated. Those who succeed will be those who roll up their sleeves and work hard, stay late.
4.
CBRE | Page 30
Specialist in every sector. More RICS, more AAPI. More knowledge and experience
H C M C F E AR L E S S F O R E C AS T S
Green
9.
What happened to LEED? Just because nobodys talking about it dont assume it isnt important the shift in direction continues to occur.
CBRE | Page 31
H C M C F E AR L E S S F O R E C AS T S
Residential Market
10. 11.
CBRE still believes that confidence is the key determinant for a turnaround even if the cost of borrowing continues to slide. Buyers will slowly come back to the market, though the bull run is unlikely to occur in 2013. As in the UK, the fall in resi prices enables record number of first time buyers in to the market as prices in some areas bottom out. Multi-generational housing to become less common as developers continue to recognise the true demand in the market and provide product that buyers can afford.
12.
Vietnamese investors will consider residential investment properties in London and Sydney as well as Ho Chi Minh City.
The largest office deals will occur in the Grade B market as tenants re-calibrate, re-locate and upgrade. Absorption in 2013, will increase on that seen in 2012, as the Vietnamese and regional economies recover. Prime retail rents remain suffocatingly high as quality pitches remain rare. The prime demographic is slowly transitioning from window shoppers to actual shoppers, F & B operators the main beneficiary of this transition. Retail Landlords go back to school and learn about project positioning as out of town vacancy reaches record highs. Despite the difficulties, foreign retailers will come to Vietnam. Vietnam has 67.1m people below the age of 40.
H C M C F E AR L E S S F O R E C AS T S
And finally
17.
Will anyone still have time for golf..?
CBRE | Page 33
2013 CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. This report has been prepared in good faith and with due care by CB Richard Ellis (Vietnam) Co., Ltd. We obtained some of the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified the accuracy of the information which we obtained from other sources and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates which are made with careful consideration of factors known to us for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CB Richard Ellis clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CB Richard Ellis. CBRE | Page 34