CHAPTER III GROWTH, COMPOSITION AND DIRECTION OF INDIAS EXPORTS

Chapter - III Growth, Composition and Direction of Indias Exports 3.1 Introduction Structure of any countrys exports is important to understand the salient features of its export sector and level of development. In context of theory of structural change, for example, if a country has majority of primary commodities in its export basket then it is considered that country is basically a developing economy and vice versa if export basket contains bulk of capital goods. And structure of exports has been undergoes significant changes with the process of economic growth and development. Growth of exports is also very important both for the developing and developed economies as developing countries need of foreign exchange earnings to compensate the imports bill of capital goods. Whereas, developed countries need markets for the sale of overproduction of manufactured capital and consumer goods. Large and increasing share in world exports of manufacturers signifies the mounting importance of the country in the world economy. Coupled with capital outflows, it is a clear cut indicator of establishment of hegemonic power as was empirically seen to have happened in the history as Great Britain emerged as an imperial power during the nineteenth century and United States as neo-imperial power after the World War I. Besides, China can be seen accumulating hegemonic powers in the contemporary world economy. The growth of a countrys export is determined by many internal and external factors (Singh, 1964). Besides internal factors, any change in a countrys exports is at least partially attributable to changes in world demand for those products. All these factors have an important bearing on a countrys export performance in so far as they affect the demand for its exports. Commodity composition and market composition of exports are crucially important for the countries that are adopting outwardoriented export promotion development strategy as a tool of planned
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economic development in the contemporary global economy. Given commodity composition and market distribution of exports, export based outward-oriented strategy can give desirable effects in this era of globalistion which is characterised by unilateralism at domestic level in majority of the economies of the world; and multilateralism and regionalism at global level. Given the commodity composition, a country may fail to maintain its share in world market, i.e. exports may not keep pace with the expansion in world trade, if demand for its exports is growing relatively slowly, although the country has some sort of comparative advantage in its respective exportables. This would be true in case of the country whose exports are concentrated in primary products, raw materials and other commodities, demand for which is income inelastic and hence grow slowly. In these circumstances, an unchanging commodity composition may well become a constraint on export growth. Similarly, the market distribution of export can also affects a countrys exports. A country may fail to maintain its share in world market if most of its exports go to markets which are relatively stagnant. Conversely, exports may increase faster than world average if they are sold in rapidly growing markets (Nayyar, 1976). For India, the period since 1991 has been characterised by substantial changes in economic environment both domestically and externally. Economic environment in India has undergone qualitative changes as the import substitution inward oriented development strategy has been replaced with export promotion outward oriented strategy with implementation of economic reforms in every sector of economy and particularly in external sector. Global economic environment has also been characterised by increasing popularity of economic liberalization, multilateralism and regionalism which has changed economic order instituted during the post World War II period. All these changes created an export friendly environment. No doubt, this economic transformation of global economic order with special emphasis on free trade has
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articulated the export friendly environment both for the developing and developed economies. The attempt, in this chapter, has been made to examine the changes occurred in the growth, composition and direction of Indias exports during post-reform and post-WTO period, i.e. during the period from 1991-92 to 2005-06. For this, the analysis has been organized into six sections. Section 3.1 deals with the introduction and section 3.2 with the objectives and research methodology. Section 3.3 provides a brief overview of Indian economy with special reference to India's external sector. Annual patterns of growth of Indias exports have been examined in section 3.4. Section 3.5 and 3.6 respectively presents a comprehensive picture of composition and direction of Indias exports during post-reforms and post-WTO periods. Lastly, significant trends, emerged out of the analysis have been summed up in the section 3.7. 3.2 Objective and Methodology This chapter is devoted to the examination of the changes that occurred in the growth, composition, and direction of Indias exports during post-reforms period (1991-92 to 2005-06). The analysis in the study has been limited to the merchandise exports only and exports of services have been excluded. The attempt is to present the major changes in the sphere of exports by highlighting the significant points of growth, composition, and direction of Indias exports. Growth rates have been calculated by using the exponential function of the following form. = The Growth rate (r) has been computed as under = { (log ) 1)} 100 or = 1 100 Where, b = Slope of semi-logarithmic trend
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a = constant r = Growth rate The growth rates are computed for the whole period i.e. from 199192 to 2005-06 and for some of the sub-periods by deflating the actual value of various variables at constant prices with the base year 19992000 by using export unit value index. Composition and the direction of exports are analyzed by using simple percentage and simple average methods. The results related to composition and direction of exports have presented by taking the triennium averages of the study period. While examining the composition of Indias exports at SITC digit 1, 2 and 3, results are presented at four points of time i.e. 1992, 1996, 2002 and 2006 and in the same manner the share of Indian exports in world exports has been shown respectively. To examine the commodity and geographic concentration of exports Hirschman-Gini's Index has been used. Let total export earnings of the year t be denoted by Xt and export earnings from each commodity by Xit, where I go from 1 to n. Then the Hirschman-Gini's Index of commodity and geographic concentration (HGCt) is defined as under:

Hirshman Ginis Coefficient ( ) =

=1

The highest value of the coefficient is 1. This occurs only when total export earning comprises of only one commodity. The lowest value is 0, which occur when all commodity have equal importance in the total exports earning. Within these values closer to 1, the higher is the concentration and vice versa. Besides Gross, Net and Income terms of trade are also calculated for the overall exports during the concerned period. 3.3 Indian Economy and India's External Sector: A Brief Overview Before presenting the picture of growth and structure of Indias exports, it will be relevant to introduce with the changes which occurred
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in the various macro-economic variables of the economy during the study period. This section presents a brief overview of Indian economy and also describes salient feature of its external sector. Table 3.1 reveals various macro-economic variables of Indian economy during the period from 1991-92 to 2005-06. Indian economy grew rapidly during the study period as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at factor cost increased from Rs. 11,60,304 crore in 1991-94 (T.A) to Rs. 24,09,209 crore in 2003-06 (T.A) with growth rate of 6.18 per cent per annum. Almost all the GDP variables registered a growth of more than 6.00 per cent during the same period. However, the growth was found to be higher during the sub-period 200106 as compared to other two sub-periods i.e. 1991-96 and 1996-2001. Per Capita GNP and NNP at factor cost have been raised to Rs. 21,921 and Rs. 19,500 in 1991-94 (T.A) from Rs. 13,094 and Rs. 11,803 respectively in 2003-06 (T.A) with growth rate of more than 4.00 per cent. Gross capital formation (8.68 per cent) and net capital formation (9.46 per cent) has also recorded high rate of growth as both the components have increased sharply. However, growth of these two components has been outstanding during the last sub-period 2001-06. Thus, introduction of economic reforms has positively influenced the economic performance of Indian economy during the concerned period as indicated by the macro-economic variables. However, its implications with regard to poverty, unemployment, and inclusive growth have been serious in nature and scope. Table 3.2 highlights the structure of Indian economy by major components of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the period 19912006. Data shows that all the major sectors of Indian economy registered manifold increase in their values (in Rs. Crore at constant prices) during the study period. Agriculture and allied activities, industry and service sectors have grown respectively at 2.74 per cent, 6.04 per cent, and 7.85 per cent per annum. Thus, growth of agriculture and allied sector has
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been remained to be lowest as compared to industrial and service sectors, and it clearly highlights the neglect of primary sector activities during the concerned period. Service sector recorded highest growth during the period and have been able to gain from the ongoing process of globalization, liberalization and privatization. Industrial sector has been able to maintain its share of approximately 20.00 percent since 1991-94 (T.A). In case of service sector, actual growth has been found to be much higher, but agriculture sector has not been able to achieve its potential growth during the concerned period. Among the major sectors of the economy, trade, hotel, communications and transport sector registered highest growth of 8.68 per cent followed by finance and insurance services (7.01 per cent) and construction (7.61 per cent) sectors. Data clearly exhibits the structural change in Indian economy during the study period as share of agriculture and allied activities sector has consistently declined from 30.34 per cent to 20.49 per cent; share of industrial sector increased slightly from 19.31 per cent to 19.47 per cent; and share of service sector fabulously increased from 50.35 per cent to 60.05 per cent during the period under study. Instantly increasing importance of service sector in Indian economy has emerged out as very peculiar phenomena which had not been seen in any developed economies and even not explained by the theories of structural change as economy experienced instant expansion of service sector and manufacturing sector considered as the backbone of an economy in the economic theory proved unable to establish a solid base in the economy during the same period. Table 3.3 presents a brief overview of Indias external sector during the period from 1991-92 to 2005-06. It is very clear that Indias external sector has remained comfortable during the post-reforms period as Indias balance of payment position remained to be favourable during the study period. Overall balance of payments (BOP) increased to Rs. 1,08,599 crore in 2003-06 (T.A) from Rs. 11,058 crore in 1991-94 (T.A).
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Export from India and import to India have also registered manifold rise during the same period, but rise in imports was found to be much larger than the rise in exports, which is clear from the continuously rising trade deficit from Rs. 12,152 crore to Rs. 1,48,272 crore during the period under study. In this way, Indias current account remained in deficit up to 1997-2000 (T.A). However, after this period it turned out to be positive, primarily due to sharp rise in the invisibles, which have grown up from Rs. 5941 crore to Rs. 150962 crore with rate of growth of 23.37 per cent per annum during the same period. Picture of capital account of BOP has been quite satisfactory as it was found to be positive throughout the study period. It is primarily due to the fact that India has been able to invite huge amount of foreign investment which have increased from Rs. 5,106 crore in 1991-94 (T.A) to Rs. 63,227 crore in 2003-06 (T.A) with growth rate of 22.79 per cent per annum. Apart from the foreign investment, it was partly subject to growth of loans and banking capital which respectively rose to Rs. 21,126 and Rs. 16,872 in 2003-06 (T.A) from Rs. 5,685 crore and Rs. 6,868 crore in 1991-94 (T.A) respectively. External sector of Indian economy was the focal stress point of the 1991 balance of payment crisis. Perhaps for that reason it saw the most far reaching reforms and successful response to reform initiatives (Acharya, 1999). Thats why Indias balance of payments positions remained comfortable during reform period, otherwise BOP in India whenever viewed from the national income measurement side, constitute a very feeble position and continuous story of deficits if we take the whole period stretching from the beginning of the planned economic development (Chatterjee and Karmakar, 2002).. Table 3.4 highlights the growth of foreign exchange reserves during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06. The value of foreign exchange reserves has increased quit sharply from Rs. 38,338 crore in 1991-94 (T.A) to Rs. 5,95,211 crore in 2003-06 (T.A) with a growth rate of 23.34 per cent (in Rs. terms) and from $ 19,153 million in 1991-94 (T.A) to $ 2,03,048
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millions in 2003-06 (T.A) with a growth rate of 15.45 per cent. Growth of foreign exchange reserves was found to be much higher during the period 1991-96 than in other two sub-periods and it has turned out to be negative during the period 2002-02 to 2005-06. Among SDRs, gold and foreign currency assets, growth of foreign currency assets has registered much higher growth than others (both in Rs. and US $ terms) during the study period. Thus, it can be said that India has successfully been able to remove the uncertainties regarding the availability of foreign exchange reserves during post-reforms period. Table 3.5 demonstrates the various indicators of Indias external sector during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06. Data exhibit that opening up of economy has raised Indias share in world merchandise trade from 0.57 per cent in 1991-92 to 1.22 per cent in 2005-06. Indias share in world merchandise exports and imports has increased from 0.56 per cent and 0.58 per cent to 1.07 per cent and 1.35 per cent respectively during the same period. It is to be noted that Indias share in world imports have increased more sharply than that of exports. Declining export-import ratio (exports as percentage of imports) from 92.12 in 1991-92 to 69.12 in 2005-06 indicates towards increasing difficulties to finance the ever increasing import bill and has also been responsible for continuously increasing trade deficit. This also reflects a continual tendency for the economys resource utilization to exceed the amount of resource generated within the economy (Kaundal, 2006). Trade-GDP ratio, exportGDP ratio and import-GDP ratio have sharply risen from 14.80 per cent, 6.90 per cent and 7.90 per cent to 32.40 per cent, 13.00 per cent and 19.40 per cent respectively during the same period. Thus, increasing trade-GDP ratio, export-GDP ratio and import-GDP ratio, indicates toward the mounting importance of trade for Indian economy at one side; and also highlights rapidly increasing openness and integration of Indian economy to global economy during the study period.

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However, the merchandise trade balance has shown a negative picture if it is seen in the context of domestic economic performance, but the indicators of service trade exhibited quite optimist trends during the study period as invisible receipts as percentage of GDP raised to 11.10 per cent from 3.60 per cent and invisible payments as percentage of GDP raised to 5.90 per cent from 2.90 per cent. The ratio of current receipts to current payments has jumped up from 94.30 per cent in 1991-92 to 103.80 per cent in 2001-02, However, it further decreased to 94.80 per cent in 2005-06. Thus, rise in invisible receipts was found to be much higher than that of the increase in invisible payments, which further resulted in positive current account since 2001-03 (T.A). Even current account balance has turned out to be positive of 0.70 per cent in 200001 which was in deficit of -0.30 per cent in the initial year. Indias current account indicators have registered outstanding performance as they were found to be positive throughout the period under study. Foreign investment as percentage of GDP has increased to 2.60 per cent from 0.10 per cent and foreign investment as percentage of exports climbed up to 24.00 per cent from 0.70 per cent during the period under study. Import cover of foreign exchange reserves rose to 11.60 months from 5.30 months during the same period. Table also describes behavior of debt indicators during the period from 1991-92 to 2005-06. The data show that the debt stock as percentage of GDP has slipped down to 17.20 per cent from 28.70 per cent. Concessional debt as percentage of total debt has decreased from 45.90 per cent to 17.20 per cent, but short term debt as percentage of GDP has increased from 10.20 per cent to 14.10 per cent by declining to 3.60 per cent in 2001-02. Declining burden of debt service was found to be the most outstanding feature during the period as it was as high as of 35.30 per cent in 1991-92 and squeezed down to 9.90 per cent in 200506. Therefore, foreign debt indicators reveal desirable performance during the study period. Thus, it can be concluded that post-reforms
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period has generated many beneficial effects to improve the performance of Indias external sector that was quite poor in the pre-reforms period. 3.4 Growth of India's Exports: Annual Patterns The trends that emerged in Indias exports during the post-reforms and post-WTO period have been examined thoroughly in the foregoing tables. Table 3.6 brings out the growth of Indias exports (at constant prices 1999-2000) during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06. Table highlights that Indias total trade increased from Rs.1,50,211 crore in 1991-92 to Rs. 2,85,698 crore (1.9 times) in 1995-96; from Rs. 3,08,447 crore in 199697 to Rs. 4,43,928 crore (1.4 times) in 2001-02; and from Rs. 5,38,089 crore in 2003-03 to Rs. 8,45,318 crore (1.6 times) in 2005-06. Value of total trade increased from Rs. 1,50,211 crore in 1991-92 to Rs. 8,45,318 crore (5.6 times) in 2005-06. Indias exports increased from Rs. 71,993 crore in 1991-92 to Rs. 1,32,667 crore (1.8 times) in 1995-96; from Rs. 1,42,194 crore in 1996-97 to Rs. 2,04,283 crore (1.4 times) in 2001-02; and from Rs. 2,48,553 crore in 2003-03 to Rs. 3,45,459 crore (1.4 times) in 2005-06. Value of exports increased from Rs. 71,993 crore in 1991-92 to Rs. 3,45,459 crore (4.6 times) in 2004-05. Indias imports increased from Rs. 78,219 crore in 1991-92 to Rs. 1,53,031 crore (1.9 times) in 1995-96; from Rs. 1,66,252 crore in 1996-97 to Rs. 2,39,645 crore (1.4 times) in 2001-02; and from Rs. 2,89,536 crore in 2003-03 to Rs. 499858 crore (1.7 times) in 2005-06. Value of imports increased from Rs. 78,219 crore in 1991-92 to Rs. 4,99,858 crore (6.4 times) in 2005-06. Indias trade deficit increased from Rs. 6,226 crore in 1991-92 to Rs. 20,364 crore (1.3 times) in 1995-96; from Rs. 24,058 crore in 1996-97 to Rs. 35,362 crore (1.5 times) in 2001-02; and from Rs. 40,983 crore in 2003-03 to Rs. 1,54,399 crore (3.76times) in 2005-06. Thus, trade deficit increased from Rs. 6,226 crore in 1991-92 to Rs. 1,54,399 crore (24.8 times) in 2005-06.

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Table 3.7 depicts the growth of Indias exports vis--vis imports and total trade during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06. Indias total trade recorded growth of 11.87 per cent during the whole study period. Indias exports grew at 11.51 per cent, whereas Indias imports registered a growth of 12.14 per cent during same period. The data clearly highlight the impact of East Asian crisis on Indias merchandise trade sector as the growth of exports (8.68 per cent), imports (8.85 per cent) and total trade (8.79 per cent) has been found to be quite lower during the subperiod 1996-2001 as compared to other two sub-periods i.e. 1991-1996 and 2001-2006. Besides, growth of imports has been found to be higher than that the growth of Indias exports during the whole study period. Even after the revival of East Asian crisis, Indias imports has registered much higher growth of 21.45 per cent as compared to the export growth of 13.55 per cent during the period 2001-02 to 2005-06. Hence, widening trade deficit indicates that growth in the value of exports from India had been recorded to be on lower side as compared to the growth in the value of Indias imports, which is not up to the mark as during the special emphasis was put on export promotion. However, the level of growth of exports has been significant and could not be ignored in the context of increasing needs of imports for a rapidly growing economy, but even then it demands special attention so that the economy would come out of the chronic imbalance at merchandise trade ever since the beginning of the planning process in the country. Table 3.8 shows Indias exports vis--vis World exports (at constant prices) during the period 1991 to 2006. World exports and Indias exports respectively have increased from US $ 3183.26 million and US $ 15.94 million in 1991 to US $ 4971.24 million (1.56 times) and US $ 31.45 million (1.97 times) in 1997 respectively and further it rose to US $ 9472.89 million (2.97 times) and US $ 95.52 million (5.99 times) in 2006. Thus, Indias percentage share in world exports has increased from 0.56
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per cent in 1990 to 0.63 per cent in 1997 and further to 1.07 per cent in 2006. Further, Indias exports experienced the growth of 11.66 per cent that was much higher than that growth of 7.32 per cent of world export during the period 1991-2006. It is interesting to note that Indias exports registered rapid growth that was almost double of world export growth during the various sub-periods except the sub-period of 1996-2000. In fact, the impact of the East Asian crisis has been evident as Indias export growth has declined to 8.96 per cent, which was slightly higher than world export growth (8.46 per cent) during sub-period 1996-2000. India's export growth has been mainly attributed to the rapid growth of world export and exchange rate depreciation during 1991-95 (Marjit and Chaudary, 1997 and Srinivasan, 1998). The decline in growth rate of Indias exports during the second half of 1990s (1996-2000) was mainly attributed to East Asian crisis, which has put a strain on India's exports not only by shrinking world demand but by also adversely affecting international competitiveness of India's exports due to sharp depreciation of East Asian currencies (Kumar, 1998). The nominal exchange rates of East Asian competitors (notably Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines and Indonesia) underwent substantial depreciation during the crisis period (Acharya, 2002) and thus resulted deceleration in export growth. Table 3.9 reveals growth of Indias exports vis--vis selected countries (at constant prices) during the period 1991 to 2006. Indias export growth has been recorded very high during the period as compared to other selected giant exporters of world. Among the selected exporters in the world export market, on the basis of exports growth, India was found to be at 3rd place during 1991-2006, 7th place in 199196, again 7th position during 1996-2000 and 6th during 2001-06. Thus, it can be said that Indias export growth was very consistent and less fluctuating as compared to other selected exporters. In the context of
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phenomenal growth of world exports, growth performance of Indias exports has remained to be outstanding as it had registered much higher growth than that of the growth of world exports and highest among the selected giant exporters in world export market except China during the study period. 3.5 Composition of Exports A preliminary idea of the changes in the commodity composition of exports can be obtained by examining the changing shares of each commodity in total exports. Table 3.10 traces the percentage contribution of Indias principal exports to total earnings by dividing overall exports into four broad groups namely: (i) Primary Products; (ii) Manufactured goods; (iii) Petroleum products and (iv) Others. Exports of Primary Products are further divided into three categories, i.e. agriculture and allied products, iron ores, and others. Similarly, manufactured exports are also divided into seven categories: (i) leather & manufactures; (ii) chemicals and related products; (iii) engineering goods; (iv) textile and textile products; (vi) gems and jewellery; (vii) handicrafts; and (viii) other manufactured goods. Table 3.10 shows that relative share of primary products fell from 22.04 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 15.87 per cent in 2003-06 (T.A). This sharp decline has been due to rapid decrease in share of agricultural and allied exports in the countrys overall exports. Contrary to primary exports, relative share of manufactured exports slightly rose from 74.74 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 78.05 per cent in 1997-00 (T.A), but decreased to 73.01 per cent in 2003-06 (T.A). The share of petroleum products in total exports earnings stood up considerably from 2.23 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 8.42 per cent 2003-06 (T.A). This may be due to the sharp rise in the prices of these products especially in the global crude market, which reflects itself in the prices of the manufactures and petroleum products. If we see within primary products group, share of

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agriculture and allied products in overall export earnings decreased rapidly from 17.65 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 10.62 per cent in 200306 (T.A). As the same time, share of iron and ore in total export earning has also declined from 4.39 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 2.74 per cent in 1997-2000 (T.A) that again increased to 4.53 per cent during 2003-06 (T.A). The export growth of primary products was found to be 8.11 per cent during the study period, however, the growth of manufactured exports and petroleum product exports reported quite high of 11.38 per cent and 24.17 per cent respectively compared to primary products exports. The ores and minerals export grew at 12.16 per cent, almost half of petroleum product export growth during the study period. Meanwhile, agricultural and allied products exports grew at 6.68 per cent which was found to be lowest among all other groups in export composition. Looking at export growth during different sub-periods, petroleum products experienced sharp fluctuation in its growth rate. However, the sub-period 1996-2000 was not good in terms of export growth as all the broad commodity groups registered low growth. Even, primary and agricultural commodities experienced negative export growth of -1.93 per cent and 2.33 per cent respectively during the same period. Further, all the commodities showed good recovery and experienced healthy export growth except agricultural and allied products that remained at the low level of 4.40 per cent during the sub-period of 2001-06. Hence, it can be concluded that performance of primary exports particularly of agricultural and allied products exports has been poor as compared to the export growth of manufactured and petroleum products during the study period. It was justified with regard to the support provided as manufactured exports have been able to draw the benefits of foreign technology imports and investments. To make the picture clearer, a further detailed breakdown of above classification is provided in Tables 3.11, 3.12 and 3.13. The relative shares of tea, tobacco, cashew, oil meals, marine products which have
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decreased quite sharply between 1991-94 (T.A) and 2003-06 (T.A) were primarily responsible for the reducing share of exports of agriculture and allied products in overall exports. Share of tea, oil meals, and cashew experienced vigorous decrease from 11.49 per cent, 15.69 per cent and 8.37 per cent to 4.46 per cent and 9.60 per cent and 5.73 per cent respectively over the period, whereas the respective shares of marine products, sugar and molasses, and tobacco experienced slight decrease. Share of fruits and vegetables, miscellaneous processed items and Spices in total exports of agriculture and allied products recorded a slight increase during the same period. Exports which raised their relative share very sharply were rice, wheat, meat and meat preparations. Their shares in total export earnings increased tremendously from 10.17 per cent, 0.57 per cent and 2.83 per cent to 14.52 per cent, 3.99 per cent and 5.35 per cent respectively over the period under study. The export growth of wheat and rice was recorded 39.48 per cent and 9.22 per cent respectively during the whole study period. Out of the other main contributors in export growth of agricultural and allied products were meat and meat preparation (12.58 per cent), processed fruits and juices etc. (10.49 per cent), fruits and vegetables (9.29 per cent) and others (14.09 per cent) during the study period. However, the data also indicated that the main contributors in the export growth within agricultural and allied products during the different sub-periods did not remain the same. Within agricultural and allied products, the growth of wheat and tea has been found to be highly fluctuating, i.e. -22.95 per cent and -5.41 per cent respectively during sub-period of 2001-06. During the sub-period of 1991-95, four commodities tea, cotton, tobacco and sugar experienced negative export growth rate of 7.41 per cent, -16.24 per cent, -9.35 per cent and -0.99 per cent respectively. The number of commodities which registered negative growth during the sub-period 1996-2000 has been increased to seven, i.e. coffee, rice, wheat, cotton, tobacco, oil meals, and sugar. Hence, the
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impact of East Asian crisis has been quite evident during the sub-period 1996-2000 as majority of agricultural exports recorded negative growth rates (Table 3.11). Moreover, only the wheat, processed fruits, etc., and meat & meat preparations exports realized double-digit growth during the period. Among the remaining exports rice and fruits & vegetables grew at higher pace and all the remaining export items realized very low growth during the same period. Therefore, it is held that majority of agricultural and allied exports have experienced deceleration in growth, which resulted in the decline in the relative share of agricultural and allied exports in overall export earnings during study period. Table 3.12 reveals the relative share of various exports items within iron and ore exports. Among total iron and ore exports, shares of iron and ore declined slightly from 54.54 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 36.09 per cent in 2000-03 (T.A), but increased rapidly to 57.91 per cent in the subsequent period. The relative share of mica reported a continuous decline from 1.22 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 0.51 per cent in 2003-06 (T.A). The growth of exports of iron and ore and mica was found to be 11.94 per cent and 4.06 per cent respectively during the whole study period, i.e. from 1991-92 to 2005-06. The growth of export within iron and ore was found to be quite fluctuating during the different sub-periods. iron ore and mica experienced negative growth rate of -1.75 per cent and -12.09 per cent respectively during the sub-period 1991-95 and positive growth rate of 61.67 per cent and 4.06 per cent respectively during the sub-period of 2001-06. Iron and ore export discovered very high growth during the sub-period 2001-06. Also the other items within iron ore too contributed significantly at 18.04 per cent per annum during the same sub-period and resulted in an increase in share of ores and mineral products groups in overall exports during the study period. Although the share of manufactured goods in total exports remained fluctuating, but decreased moderately over the period (Table 3.13). The changes within this commodity classification are very
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interesting. Share of leather and leather manufactures, textile and textile products and handicrafts exports fell sharply from 9.57 per cent, 37.75 per cent, and 2.08 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 4.06 per cent, 23.77 per cent, and 0.76 per cent in 2003-06 (T.A) respectively. The relative share of chemicals and related products, engineering goods and Gem & jewelry increased fastly from 15.05 per cent, 19.36 per cent, and 15.25 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 20.11 per cent, 28.03 per cent, and 21.96 per cent in 2003-06 (T.A) respectively. Within manufactured products, gems and jewellery, engineering goods and chemicals and chemicals related products registered export growth of 16.21 per cent, 15.31, and 14.77 per cent respectively during the study period. However, the growth of exports of leather and handcrafts remained at lower level of 4.52 per cent and 4.36 per cent respectively during the same period. Moreover, leather products after gaining the export growth of 9.09 per cent in 1991-95 sub-periods had slipped to very low growth of 0.66 per cent during the sub-period 2001-06. The handicrafts products exports, after gaining healthy growth of 16.17 per cent during sub-period 1991-95, slipped down to negative growth rate of -17.95 per cent during the sub-period 2001-06. However, engineering goods exports experienced healthy growth rate of 22.49 per cent during the same period. Thus, almost all the export items in this group registered double-digit growth due to which this broad product has been able to maintain more than one-third of its share in overall export earnings during the study period. Leather (4.52 per cent) and textile (8.11 per cent) exports experienced lower growth amongst manufactured exports and thus there was a rapid decline in their relative shares in overall export earnings. It is held that the persistence of the MFA quota has imposed constraints on textile exports and thus responsible for relative decline in growth rate vis--vis nonquota sectors (Chakraboty and Chakraboty, 2005). Table 3.14 traces the composition of Indias export at aggregate level of SITC 1 digit and disaggregates level of SITC 2 digit level and also
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reveals their performance in world exports by highlighting the major trends at various points of time since 1992. The composition of Indias export both at aggregate (SITC Digit 1) and disaggregate level (SITC Digit 2) depicts significant changes during the study period. At aggregate level, food and live animals (SITC-0), beverages and tobacco (SITC-1), manufactured goods (SITC-6), miscellaneous manufactured articles (SITC-8) and commodities and transactions not classified by kind (SITC9) realized quick decline in their contribution to total exports. Contrary to this, the product groups crude materials (SITC-2), mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC-3), chemicals (SITC-5) and machinery and transport equipments (SITC-7) registered sharp increase in their contribution in total exports during the period from 1992 to 2006, whereas the share of animals and vegetables oil and fats (SITC-4) remained almost as same as in the initial year. Meanwhile, crude materials (SITC-2) and mineral fuels (SITC-3) had registered an increase in their contribution from 5.07 per cent and 2.81 per cent in 1992 to 7.01 per cent and 14.87 per cent respectively in 2006. The share of chemicals (SITC-5) and machinery (SITC-7) which has recorded 7.06 per cent and 7.00 per cent in 1992 increased to 11.85 per cent and 11.18 per cent respectively in 2006. On the other side, food and live animals (SITC-0) and beverages and tobacco (SITC-1) experienced a sharp decline from 14.71 per cent and 0.93 per cent in 1992 to 7.63 per cent and 0.33 per cent respectively in 2006. The product groups namely manufactured goods (SITC-6) (40.33 per cent) and miscellaneous manufactured articles (SITC-8) (20.09 per cent) jointly contributed approximately 60 per cent of Indias total exports in 1992 which quickly declined and reached at 45 per cent level in 2006 (i.e. 30.52 per cent and 15.15 per cent respectively). In case of commodity groups namely animals and vegetables oil and fats (SITC-4) and commodities and transactions not classified by kind (SITC-9), the decline in their relative share was found to be smoother as compared to the others.
69

At disaggregate level, in case of food and live animals (SITC-1), the sub groups, viz. fish and fish preparations (SITC-1), fruit and vegetables (SITC-1), coffee (SITC-07) and feed-stuff etc. (SITC-08) has registered a decline in their share in total exports of India, from 3.21 per cent, 2.35 per cent, 3.02 per cent and 2.89 per cent in 1992 to 1.39 per cent, 1.35 per cent, 1.05 per cent and 0.98 per cent in 2006. cereals (SITC-04) and sugar (SITC-06) commodities realized a moderate decline in their share in total exports. Only the live animals (SITC-00) and meat (SITC-01) have slightly increased their contribution in total exports in the same group. Almost all the commodities in the crude material group (SITC-2) registered an increase in their contribution to total export of India during the study period. Among the commodities in mineral fuels etc., the materials product group (SITC-3), petroleum and petroleum product (SITC-33) have realized fabulous increase from 2.57 per cent to 14.87 per cent in total exports of India. Among the product group chemicals (SITC5), the commodities namely chemical elements (SITC-51), crude chemicals (SITC-52), medicinal and pharmaceuticals (SITC-54), plastic material (SITC-58) and chemical materials (SITC-59) reported consistent rise during the concerned period. In manufactured goods group (SITC-6), leather etc. (SITC-61), non-metallic minerals manufacturers (SITC-66) had experienced a steep decline from 3.01 per cent, 14.14 per cent, and 15.90 per cent in 1992 to 0.87 per cent, 6.97 per cent and 9.80 per cent respectively in 2006. All the remaining exports in this group realized a decline in their contribution to total exports. Exports of textile yarn etc. (SITC-65) showed dramatic decline during this period from 14.14 per cent to 6.97 per cent. All the commodities in the machinery and transport equipment (SITC-7) registered an increase in their contribution to total export of India during the study period. In the product group SITC-8, clothing (SITC-84) and footwear (SITC-85) also had experienced consistent decline in contribution to exports of India from 15.01 per cent in 1992 to 7.59 per cent in 2006.
70

Thus,

the

commodities

which

experienced

high

growth

in

percentage contribution during the study period were petroleum and petroleum products (SITC-33) (from 2.57 per cent to 14.73 per cent), metalliferous ores and metal scrap (SITC-28) (from 2.35 per cent to 3.92 per cent), chemical elements and compounds (SITC-51) (from 2.20 per cent to 4.89 per cent), iron and steel (SITC-67) (from 2.55 per cent to 5.93 per cent), non-ferrous metals (SITC-68) (from 1.02 per cent to 3.34 per cent), machinery other than electric (SITC-71) (from 2.77 per cent to 4.26 per cent), electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances (SITC-72) (from 1.40 per cent to 3.24 per cent), transport equipments (SITC-73) (from 2.83 per cent to 3.68 per cent) and miscellaneous manufactured articles (SITC-89) (from 2.49 per cent to 5.47 per cent). On the other, several commodities experienced quick decline in percentage contribution during the study period. In the context of Indias share in world exports, at aggregate level (SITC Digit 1), only two commodity groups i.e. food and live animals (1.12 per cent) and manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials (SITC-6) (1.50 per cent) had more than one per cent share in world exports in the year 1992. However, there were six commodity groups including the above mentioned two commodity groups which have recorded more than one per cent share in world exports were food and live animals (from 1.12 per cent in 1992 to 1.71 per cent in 2006), crude materials (SITC-2) (from 0.77 per cent in 1992 to 2.36 per cent in 2006), mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC-3) (from 0.24 per cent in 1992 to 1.28 per cent in 2006), chemicals (SITC-5) (from 0.46 per cent in 1992 to 1.24 per cent in 2006), manufactured goods (SITC-6) (from 1.50 per cent in 1992 to 2.41 per cent in 2006), miscellaneous manufactured articles (SITC-8) (from 0.87 per cent in 1992 to 1.54 per cent in 2006). However, the commodity groups like crude materials (SITC-2) and mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials (SITC-3) had registered a sharp increase in their share in world exports.
71

At disaggregate level (SITC Digit 2), many commodities show a large share in world exports. The non-metallic mineral manufactures (SITC-66) (from 4.63 per cent in 1992 to 6.53 per cent in 2006), textile yarn (SITC-65) (from 2.57 per cent in 1992 to 4.27 per cent in 2006), unmanufactured textile fibers (SITC-26) (from 0.54 per cent in 1992 to 5.90 per cent in 2006), crude fertilizers and crude minerals (SITC-27) (from 1.64 per cent in 1992 to 4.51 per cent in 2006), feed stuff for animals (SITC-08) (from 3.32 per cent in 1992 to 3.77 per cent in 2006), leather etc. (SITC-61) (from 3.98 per cent in 1992 to 3.72 per cent in 2006), clothing (SITC-84) (from 2.48 per cent in 1992 to 3.45 per cent in 2006) and metalliferous ores and metal scrap (SITC-28) (from 1.73 per cent in 1992 to 3.13 per cent in 2006) have recorded a significant rise in their share in world exports. Table 3.15 highlights the trends in Indias exports at disaggregate level (SITC Digit 3) during the period from 1992 to 2006. The two commodity groups, i.e. pearls and precious and semi-precious stones (SITC-667), and Clothing (SITC-841) which had quite high share in Indias overall exports had experienced a steep decline in their contribution from 15.32 per cent and 15.28 per cent in 1992 to 8.70 per cent and 7.86 per cent respectively in 2006. Some other commodity groups, viz. manufactures of leather (SITC-612), articles of rubber (SITC629), textile yarn and thread (SITC-651), cotton fabrics (SITC-652), textile fabrics (SITC-653) and fish (SITC-031) also registered a decline in their share in Indias exports during the study period. Interestingly, share of commodity group namely petroleum products (SITC-332) in Indias total exports increased fabulously from 2.62 per cent in 1992 to 14.85 per cent in 2006. The other commodities groups that had experienced significant increase in their shares in Indias exports were iron ore and concentrates (SITC-281), organic chemicals (SITC-512), ingots and other primary forms of iron (SITC-672), universals, plates and sheets of iron (SITC-674), tubes, pipes and fittings of iron ore (SITC-678), copper (SITC72

682), machinery and appliances non-electric (SITC-719), electric power machinery and switch (SITC-722), road motor vehicles (SITC-732), and jewelry (SITC-897). In the nutshell, out of total 67 product groups at SITC digit 3 level, only 27 product groups realized upward shift in their shares, and other remaining product groups more or less were characterised by downward trend in their share in Indias total exports during the study period. All the commodity groups at SITC digit 3 level recorded increase in their share in world exports except the commodities such as tea and mate (SITC-074), manufactures of leather (SITC-612), cotton fabrics (SITC-652), aluminum (SITC-684), road vehicles etc. (SITC-733) and travel goods (SITC-831). The important commodity groups of Indias exports which have large share in world exports in 2006 were rice (SITC042) (14.91 per cent), tea and mate (SITC-074) (13.18 per cent), spices (SITC-075) (14.54 per cent), cotton (SITC-263) (13.93 per cent), iron ore and concentrates (SITC-283) (12.01 per cent), pearls and precious and semi-precious (SITC-667) (14.79 per cent), and jewelry (SITC-897) (12.11 per cent). Out of them, tea and mate (SITC-074) had registered a decline in its share (from 17.20 per cent to 13.18 per cent) in the world exports, whereas rice (SITC-042) (from 8.03 per cent to 14.91 per cent), cotton (SITC-263) (from 1.37 per cent to 3.93 per cent), iron ores and concentrates (SITC-281) (from 6.04 per cent to 12.01 per cent) and jewelry (SITC-897) (from 2.05 per cent to 12.11 per cent) had experienced a sharp rise in their share in the world exports during the study period. 3.6 Direction of Indias Exports Table 3.16 outlines the region-wise directional changes in Indias exports in terms of relative shares of the different export markets. As is clear from the table, the relative share of OECD countries in total export earnings declined steadily from 58.40 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 44.85 per cent in 2003-06 (T.A). Among OECD countries, share of European Union, and Asia and Oceania regions declined steadily whereas that of
73

North America increased slightly over the same period. The relative shares of Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Developing countries rose uniquely from 9.70 per cent and 22.99 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 15.18 per cent and 37.35 per cent in 2003-06 (T.A) respectively, whereas during the same period, the share of Eastern Europe fell sharply from 6.61 per cent to 2.16 per cent. Among the Developing Countries, the share of Asia region particularly of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries, Africa and Latin America regions increased sharply over the period. Thus, the direction of Indias exports moved toward the developing countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Looking at Indias region-wise growth of exports, exports grew at 21.12 per cent towards Latin American countries, at 16.89 per cent towards Africa, at 15.11 per cent towards Asia and at 15.82 per cent towards OPEC. However, the growth of exports towards OECD, EU, North America, and Asia and Oceania which was 14.88 per cent, 15.76 per cent , 17.37 per cent and 10.99 per cent respectively during sub-period 199196, have come down to 9.71 per cent, 12.33 per cent, 7.66 per cent and 3.92 per cent respectively during the sub-period 2001-06. Meanwhile, India experienced quite high growth of exports towards OECD countries as it was 1.91 per cent during sub-period 1991-96 but has risen to 14.33 per cent in the subsequent sub-period 2001-06. Thus, growth of exports to developing regions was found to be much higher than that of the developed ones during the study period. Moreover, the data clearly indicates that developing countries of Asia, Africa, Latin America and OPEC countries emerged as most favoured destinations for exports from India throughout the period under study as export growth to these regions remained quite high as compared to developed regions of OECD (9.19 per cent) and Eastern Europe (2.68 per cent) during the whole study period.

74

Table 3.17 provides the directional changes in Indias exports in terms of relative shares of the different export markets by countries. Among the developed countries, the relative share of all the countries except Canada has declined during the study period. Even increase in relative share of Canada was found to be quite moderate. However, U.S.A has gained its share from 17.76 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 21.30 per cent in 1997-00 (T.A), but further it declined to 17.10 per cent in 200306 (T.A), even then it remained at the top among all other export partners in terms of relative share in Indias total exports. Germany (7.24 per cent to 4.15 per cent), Japan (8.27 per cent to 3.69 per cent) and Russia (5.12 per cent to 0.86 per cent) have dramatically lost their shares during the study period. Among the developing countries, except Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, Thailand, and Zambia, relative shares of all the countries have experienced upward trend during period under study. Relative share of United Arab Emirates (U.A.E), Peoples Republic of China and Singapore in total export earnings increased considerably from 4.58 per cent, 0.76 per cent, and 2.91 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 8.39 per cent, 5.97 per cent, and 4.16 per cent respectively in 2003-06 (T.A). The increase in the relative shares of Hong Kong, Indonesia and Bangladesh was quite moderate, i.e. from 4.39 per cent , 0.87 per cent and 1.89 per cent to 4.62 per cent, 1.57 per cent, and 2.10 per cent respectively over same the period. U.A.E and China has emerged as number two and three export destinations respectively during the period. The relative share of Saudi Arabia, Tanzania, Thailand, and Zambia declined from 2.15 per cent, 0.31 per cent, 1.36 per cent, and 0.14 per cent in 1991-94 (T.A) to 1.85 per cent, 0.22 per cent, 1.34 per cent, and 0.06 per cent in 2004-06 (T.A) respectively during the period. The collective share of selected developed countries in Indias overall export earning has experienced strong decline from 59.50 per cent to 40.97 per cent. Contrary to this, share of selected developing countries, has increased sharply from 25.63
75

per cent to 40.61 per cent over the study period, which clearly highlights the increasing importance of developing countries as export partners. Table 3.18 brings out unit value index, quantum index and terms of trade during the period from 1991-92 to 2005-06. By assuming base year 1991-92, indices of terms of trade have been worked out. The unit value index of exports has increased to 233.56 per cent in 2006-07, whereas unit value index of imports after reaching its ever highest value of 214.49 per cent in 2004-05, slided down to the level of 196.70 per cent in 2006-07. Thus, increase of unit value index of exports experienced sharper rise than unit value index of imports during the study period and this is quite encouraging phenomenon for Indian economy in terms of developments in merchandise trade. In the same way, net terms of trade turned out to be favourable to Indias exports as net terms of trade index has jumped to 118.74 per cent in 2005-06 from the base year. However, net terms of trade index remained fluctuating throughout the study period, but terms of trade remained favourable except during 2002-03 (94.09 per cent) and 2004-05 (92.36 per cent). However, the quantum index of exports registered less increase (558.01) than quantum index of imports (897.81 per cent) during the same period. It is noticeable here that the quantum index of imports experienced sharp increase after 2004-05 (488.16 per cent) and reached to almost its double level of 897.81 per cent in 2006-07. But, quantum index which had little difference from quantum index of imports in 2004-05 (430.97 per cent) experienced less increase in its value in 2006-07 (558.01 per cent). Gross terms of trade, based on the values of export and import quantum index, also turned out to be favourable to Indias exports as gross terms of trade index has jumped to 160.90 per cent in 2005-06 from the base year value. Moreover, the income terms of trade has also been found to be favourable as income terms of trade index has reached to the level of 662.60 per cent in 2006-07 from its base in 1991-92.

76

Table 3.19 elaborates the values of commodity concentration and geographic concentration index of Indias exports during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06. It is evident from the table that the commodity concentration index ranged from 0.65 to 0.71 during the study period. India has been unable to diversify its export basket as the value of commodity concentration index has remained almost constant, i.e. 0.66 with very moderate changes during the mid 1990s. Contrary to commodity concentration, the value of geographic concentration index decreased to 0.57 in 2006-07 from 0.63 in 1990-91, which is an indicator of decreasing geographic concentration of exports. The geographic concentration index ranged from 0.57 to 0.63 during the same period. It is held that however, there was some sort of market diversification in Indias export, but still exports have been concentrated to a small number of markets during the study period. In the nutshell, Indias exports have remained concentrated to a small number of commodities and markets during the study period. It in the level of concentration in a meaningful manner. Table 3.20 highlights the contribution of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to Indias Exports during the period from 2000-01 to 2005-06. Data show that value of Indias overall exports and the value of export form SEZs have increased fastly from Rs. 2,03,571 crore and Rs. 8,552 crore in 2000-01 to Rs. 4,56,418 crore and Rs. 22,840 crore in 2005-06. Exports from SEZs have grown rapidly than that of the Indias total exports. The growth rates of exports from SEZs and of Indias exports were found to be 16.96 per cent and 12.47 per cent respectively during the same period. Thats why contribution of exports from SEZs in the overall exports has increased to 5.00 per cent in 2005-06 from 4.20 per cent in 2000-01. Hence, it clearly shows the positive impact of SEZs on Indias export performance during the concerned period. demands diversification of exports and export destinations in order to make a dent

77

3.7 Summing Up Due to the implementation of economic reforms since 1991 and Indias joining of World Trade Organization (WTO) and acceptance of its commitments since 1994, the export sector of the country responded sharply and experienced several fundamental changes in terms of its growth, composition, and direction. Over one and a half decade, Indian economy grew rapidly at 6.18 per cent per annum and its external sector has performed well during post-reforms period. Indias exports grew at an average rate of 11.66 per cent per annum. In the context of phenomenal expansion in world exports, this growth was relatively much higher and consequently Indias share in world exports grew continuously throughout the period under study. It was a distinct break from the past stagnation in Indias export earnings. Moreover, growth performance of Indias exports during the post-reforms period has been quite satisfactory as compared to the world exports. The actual growth of exports was found to be much higher than that of the potential export growth. The performance of Indias agricultural exports has, however, been not that satisfactory and their share in overall exports witnessed a decline since 1991. Increasing share of petroleum products is a tremendous achievement for Indias export sector and needs special attention. In nutshell, no major change took place in the overall composition of exports as manufactured exports have been unable to raise their share in overall exports earnings. The petroleum exports has achieved high growth and extended its contribution to total export and absorb the declining share of agricultural exports. There was a change in the commodity composition within the broad commodity groups. All the exports recorded very high growth rate, however growth was relatively low in case of agricultural exports. The high growth of the petroleum and manufactured exports as compared to agricultural exports clearly indicates that the effect of the economic reforms remained limited to the former type of exports. The analysis of
78

the composition at disaggregate level reveals that a small number of product groups (SITC 2 and 3 digit) were able to increase their share in the overall exports. The performance of Indias exports in the global export markets clearly depicts that all the exports had performed quite well as clearly indicated by their increasing market share in the respective world exports. The importance of developed countries as export destination for Indias exports has rapidly declined and that of developing countries increased during the study period. Developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America, and OPEC countries emerged as strong markets for Indian exports with their increasing contribution in total export earnings. SAARC region too became important for Indian exports. Though the share of U.S.A declined during the recent few years, but it remained number one destination for Indian exports during the whole study period. Having negligible share in Indias export earnings on the eve on economic reforms, the share of U.A.E and China rose quite fabulously and both the countries reached number second and third position respectively in Indias overall exports during the study period. However, India has been unable to make a strong dent in the concentration of its exports in terms of commodities as well as export destinations. The directional change towards developing countries can be considered as an achievement of Indias exports sector during the study period. The contribution of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to Indias exports has been increasing since 2000-01. Moreover, the terms of trade has been turned out favourable to the country. However, the WTO has some serious implications for Indias textile, leather, pharmaceuticals, and agricultural exports especially in the developed countries markets. But liberalization of developing economies has many desirable effects on Indian export sector especially in terms of its growth. The MFA phase out period could positively hit textile export positively. The newly emerged non-tariff trade barriers worked as constraints to the exports, which are the outcomes of
79

discriminating and biased behaviors of the developed nations which are hurting the interests of the developing nations. Collective efforts by the developing courtiers could remove discrimination and biased nature of WTO policies and could reap beneficial effects on their external sectors as a whole and especially on export sectors.

80

Table 3.1: Macro-economic Aggregates of Indian Economy during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06
Value in Rs. Crore (at Constant prices 1999-2000)
Components/Year GDP (at Factor Cost) NDP (at Factor Cost) GNP (at Factor Cost) NNP (at Factor Cost) GDP (at Market Prices) NDP (at Market Prices) GNP (at Market Prices) NNP (at Market Prices) Per Capita GNP at factor cost (Rs) Per Capita NNP at factor cost (Rs) Gross Domestic Capital Formation Net Domestic Capital Formation

Growth Rates (Percentages) 1991-92 to 2005-06 6.18 6.05 6.23 6.10 6.10 5.97 6.14 6.01 4.28 4.16 8.68 9.46 1991-92 to 1995-96 6.15 6.12 6.25 6.22 6.03 5.99 6.12 6.08 4.10 4.08 11.69 15.24 1996-97 to 2000-01 5.66 5.47 5.63 5.43 5.68 5.51 5.65 5.47 3.68 3.48 7.50 7.52 2001-02 to 2005-06 7.45 7.34 7.50 7.39 7.60 7.52 7.65 7.57 5.87 5.75 19.06 25.80

1991-92 to 1993-94 1160304 1047509 1144081 1031286 1270642 1157847 1254419 1141624 13094 11803 267350 154556

1994-95 to 1996-97 1402476 1265778 1386440 1249742 1532107 1395409 1516071 1379373 14929 13457 366387 229688

1997-98 to 1999-00 1679399 1511061 1665300 1496962 1827174 1658836 1813075 1644736 16937 15226 448502 280164

2000-01 to 2002-03 1961731 1753061 1941586 1732917 2128165 1919495 2108020 1899351 18687 16684 505717 297047

2003-04 to 2005-06 2409209 2145420 2388794 2125005 2616578 2352789 2596163 2332374 21921 19500 797790 534002

Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, RBI (Various Issues)

81

Table 3.2: Structure of Indian Economy (Components of Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost) during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06
Value in Rs. Crore (at Constant prices 1999-2000) Year Agriculture & allied activities Agriculture Industry 1991-92 to 1993-94 1994-95 to 1996-97 1997-98 to 1999-00 2000-01 to 2002-03 2003-04 to 2005-06 1991-92 to 2005-06 Growth Rates (Percentages) 1991-92 to 1995-96 1996-97 to 2000-01 2001-02 to 2005-06

351969 (30.34) 322071 (27.76) 224060 (19.31) 30312 (2.62) 166018 (14.31) 27730 (2.39) 876411 (50.35) 104101 (5.99) 324655 (18.65) 205020 (11.77) 242637 (13.94) 1160304 (100.00)

395394 (28.23) 361860 (25.84) 293031 (20.87) 34912 (2.49) 223522 (15.90) 34597 (2.47) 1071075 (50.90) 116542 (5.55) 424218 (20.14) 249827 (11.88) 280489 (13.33) 1402476 (100.00)

430149 (25.63 394379 (23.50) 338441 (20.18) 40368 (2.41) 256029 (15.27) 42044 (2.50) 1366215 (54.19) 142335 (5.65) 539055 (21.39) 322937 (12.81) 361889 (14.34) 1679399 (100.00)

452539 (23.10) 412952 (21.09) 387080 (19.73) 44364 (2.26) 296020 (15.09) 46697 (2.38) 1683167 (57.16) 171352 (5.82) 683094 (23.18) 392668 (13.33) 436054 (14.82) 1961731 (100.00)

492233 (20.49) 450330 (18.74) 468898 (19.47) 52127 (2.17) 362440 (15.04) 54331 (2.26) 2172117 (60.05) 239152 (6.59) 931309 (25.73) 490109 (13.55) 511547 (14.17) 2409209 (100.00)

2.74 2.73 6.04 4.48 6.36 5.65 7.85 7.01 8.98 7.61 6.66 6.18

3.57 3.56 8.6 4.5 9.46 7.81 6.68 3.65 8.76 7.18 4.67 6.15

2.08 2.07 3.79 4.21 3.44 5.71 8.16 7.73 7.72 8.22 8.95 5.66

2.52 2.6 7.33 6.09 7.76 5.76 9.35 13.22 11.12 8.14 5.87 7.45

Mining & Quarrying

Manufacturing Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Services Construction Trade, Hotel etc.

Finance, Insurance etc Services** Community etc Services***

GDP (at Factor Cost)

Note: *also includes Transport and Communications. **also includes Real Estate & Business Services. *** Social & Personal Services Values in Parenthesis are percentages. Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, RBI (Various Issues)

82

Table 3.3: Indias Balance of Payment during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06
Year/Item 1. (i) (ii) a. b. 2. a. b. c. d. e. 3. 4. 5. Total Current Account (a+b) Exports Imports Balance of Trade Invisibles Total Capital Account Foreign Investment Loans Banking Capital Rupee Debt Service Other Capital C. Errors & Omissions D. Overall Balance (1+2+3) E. Monetary Movements
(a toe)

Value in Rs. Crore 1991-92 1994-95 to to 1993-94 1996-97

1997-98 to 1999-00

2000-01 to 2002-03

2003-04 to 2005-06

1991-92 to 2005-06

Growth Rates (Percentages) 1991-92 1996-97 2001-02 to to to 1995-96 2000-01 2005-06

-6,211 56944 69096 -12,152 5,941 16,613 5,106 5,685 6,868 -2,807 1,760 656 11,058 -11,058

-15,504 104668 144348 -39,680 24,177 27,873 17,304 11,500 3,093 -2,912 -1,111 407 12,777 -12,777

-19,334 146631 210178 -63,547 44,213 39,271 17,251 14,424 3,053 -3,050 7,594 952 20,889 -20,889

11,829 227092 281555 -54,463 66,292 44,685 26,254 2 18,322 -2,508 2,615 -1,090 55,424 -55,424

2,691 383816 532088 -148,272 150,962 104,853 63,227 21,126 16,872 -2,057 5,684 1,055 108,599 -108,599

123.17 11.51 12.14 -12.52 23.37 11.15 22.79 -51.59 26.43 7.12 86.71 -9.42 98.63 -49.66

-29.37 16.12 22.12 -28.39 43.55 8.39 150.03 7.89 -80.37 1.86 -82.22 5815.62 -84.55 547.14

12.20 8.68 8.85 0.00 4.23 -3.39 1.39 -6.46 -85.51 1.62 1682.38 26.47 3.51 -3.39

-100.00 13.55 21.45 14.26 7.44 9.61 8.91 -100.00 -15.35 -4.66 1.81 -99.56 0.00 0.00

Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, Kolcutta.

83

Table 3.4: Foreign Exchange Reserves (End of Financial Year) during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06
Periods SDRs In Rupees crore Gold Foreign Currency Assets 10794 14656 12975 14788 21192 27335 68273 126948 258359 568888 Total SDRs In US Dollar million Gold Foreign Currency Assets 3652 4328 3108 3102 4818 13567 30110 45278 81247 194064 Total

1991-92 to 1993-94 1994-95 to 1996-97 1997-98 to 1999-00 2000-01 to 2002-03 2003-04 to 2005-06 1991-92 To 2005-06 1991-92 to 1995-96 1996-97 To 2000-01 2000-02 To 2005-06

209 103 18 27 14

38338 83032 139941 274237 595211

72 30 4 5 3

19153 36648 49947 86244 203048

Growth Rates (Percentages) -19.47 0.22 23.34 19.99 -22.43 -3.57 18.71 15.47

-11.49

6.91

38.36

29.12

-16.82

0.93

31.52

21.34

20.50

-7.32

17.49

14.55

9.90

-13.10

9.90

7.65

15.29

-2.42

-7.00

-6.91

12.29

-3.43

-7.96

-7.96

Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, RBI (Various Issues).

84

Table 3.5: Various Indicators of Indias External Sector Component/s Trade

Share in World Merchandise Exports * Share in World Merchandise Imports* Share in World Merchandise Trade* Export/Imports Export/Total Trade Import/Total Trade Exports/ GDP Imports/GDP Trade/GDP

during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06 (Percentages)

1991-92 0.56 0.58 0.57 92.12 47.95 52.05 6.90 7.90 14.80 3.60 2.90 0.70 10.30 94.30 -0.30 0.10 0.70 5.30 28.70 45.90 10.20 35.30 1995-96 0.68 0.74 0.71 86.73 46.45 53.55 9.10 12.30 21.40 5.00 3.40 1.50 14.00 88.80 -1.60 1.40 14.90 6.00 30.8 45.3 4.3 25.9 2001-02 0.77 0.77 0.77 88.19 46.86 53.14 9.40 11.80 20.12 7.70 4.60 3.10 16.90 103.80 0.70 1.70 18.20 11.50 22.5 35.4 3.6 16.6 2005-06 1.07 1.35 1.22 69.12 40.87 59.13 13.00 19.40 32.40 11.10 5.90 5.20 24.00 94.80 -1.20 2.60 20.30 11.60 17.2 28.6 14.1 9.9

Invisibles

Receipts/ GDP Payments/ GDP

Current Account

Net Current Account/ GDP Current Receipts/ GDP Current Receipts/Current Payments Current Account Deficit /GDP

Capital Account

Foreign Investment/ GDP Foreign Investment/ Exports Import Cover of Reserves (in months) Debt Stock/ GDP

Foreign Debt

Concessional Debt /Total Debt Short term debt/Total Debt Total Debt Service/GDP

Note: *Data related to these components have been related to Calendar years. Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, RBI (Various Issues)

85

Table 3.6: Growth of Indias Exports, Imports and Total Trade (at constant Prices) during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06
Year 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 Average Exports (In Rs. Crore) 71993 76934 88863 100961 132667 142194 133323 137994 159561 197046 204283 248553 263681 309706 345459 174215 Annual Change -6.86 15.51 13.61 31.40 7.18 -6.24 3.50 15.63 23.49 3.67 21.67 6.09 17.45 11.54 12.24 Imports (In Rs. Crore) 78219 90814 93130 109871 153031 166252 157995 176087 215237 223473 239645 289536 322769 413447 499858 215291 Annual Change -16.10 2.55 17.98 39.28 8.64 -4.97 11.45 22.23 3.83 7.24 20.82 11.48 28.09 20.90 14.69 Total Trade (In Rs. Crore) 150211 167748 181993 210832 285698 308447 291319 314081 374798 420519 443928 538089 586450 723153 845318 389506 Annual Change -11.67 8.49 15.85 35.51 7.96 -5.55 7.81 19.33 12.20 5.57 21.21 8.99 23.31 16.89 13.52 BOT (In Rs. Crore) -6226 -13880 -4267 -8911 -20364 -24058 -24672 -38093 -55675 -26427 -35362 -40983 -59089 -103740 -154399 -41076

Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, Kolcutta.

86

Table 3.7: Growth of Indias Exports vis--vis Imports and Total Trade during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06.
. Period/ Sub-Periods 1991-1992 to 2005-2006 1991-1992 to 1995-1996 1996-1997 to 2000-2001 2001-2002 to 2005-2006
Note: Constant Prices using World Export Unit Value Index (IFS-IMF) at 2000 prices Value of Exports at Constant Prices is computed by taking 2000-01 prices as base year. Note: Average Annual Growth Rates (AAGR) are computed at Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, Kolcutta.

Indias Exports 11.51

Indias Imports 12.14

Indias Total Trade 11.87

16.12

22.12

19.28

8.68

8.85

8.79

13.55

21.45

17.92

87

Table 3.8: Indias Export vis--vis World Exports (at Constant Prices) during the period 1991 to 2006. Year 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1991-2006 1991-1995 1996-2000 2001-2006 Indias Exports* (In US $ Billions) 15.94 17.29 20.02 22.55 25.20 27.79 31.45 31.83 34.74 42.38 45.17 51.80 55.00 65.74 81.62 95.52 Average Annual Growth Rates (AAGR) 11.66 16.55 8.96 13.89 World Exports (In US $ Billions) 3183.26 3318.24 3373.31 3728.00 4065.79 4334.38 4971.24 5186.84 5495.94 6365.17 6386.47 6607.36 6970.08 7814.00 8534.32 9472.89 7.32 7.50 8.46 7.51 Share in World Exports 0.56 0.52 0.59 0.60 0.62 0.68 0.63 0.61 0.63 0.67 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.84 0.96 1.07 -

Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, RBI. Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook, IM F (Various Issues).

88

Table 3.9: Growth of Indias Exports vis--vis Selected Countries (at Constant Prices) during the period 1991 to 2006.
Country
Developed Countries

1991-2006

1991-95

1996-2000

2001-2006

Australia France Germany Hong Kong Italy Japan Netherlands Russian Federation United Kingdom United States
Developing Countries

6.17 (15) 5.18 (18) 6.73 (13) 5.52 (16) 5.20 (17) 3.32 (21) 8.63 (9) 11.92 (4) 4.79 (19) 4.78 (20) 11.71(5) 17.35 (1) 13.41 (2) 12.21 (3) 6.56 (14) 8.58 (22) 8.15 (10) 9.44 (7) 9.29 (8) 7.94 (12) 8.05 (11) 11.31 (6) 7.43 (24)

7.19 (14) 4.61 (19) 4.95 (18) 8.84 (10) 8.24 (11) 3.63 (20) 6.10 (17) 20.05 (1) 6.95 (15) 6.84 (16) 11.12 (8) 14.99 (4) 1.72 (23) 12.61 (7) 7.81 (13) 14.49(5) 16.51(3) 9.89 (9) 3.22 (21) 17.34 (2) 14.27 (6) 2.99 (22) 8.11 (12)

4.91 (20) 6.21 (14) 5.95 (16) 5.35 (18) 3.48 (22) 4.79 (21) 13.12 (5) 6.73 (13) 3.24 (23) 6.12 (15) 17.84 (1) 15.08 (2) 12.17 (6) 12.00 (7) 7.15 (12) 7.16 (11) 8.95 (8) 5.54 (17) 13.38 (4) 5.29 (19) 8.12 (9) 13.74 (3) 7.50 (10)

9.93 (10) 2.56 (23) 7.99 (15) 4.89 (18) 5.12 (17) 4.23 (19) 9.53 (11) 20.95 (5) 3.55 (21) 3.38 (22) 14.05(7) 22.61 (3) 23.13 (1) 16.79 (6) 10.71 (9) 9.35 (13) 7.08 (16) 4.03 (20) 22.29 (4) 12.93 (8) 9.46 (12) 22.65 (2) 9.01 (14)

Bangladesh China PR Egypt India Indonesia Korea, Republic of Malaysia Maldives Saudi Arabia Singapore Thailand United Arab Emirates World

Source: Direction of Trade Statistics Yearbook, IMF, Various Issues. Figures in parenthesis are rank among the selected countries

89

Table 3.10: Overall Composition of Indias Exports during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06 (In percentage)
Commodity I. A. B. II. III. IV. Primary products Agriculture and allied products Ores and minerals Manufactured goods Petroleum products Others Total Exports 19911994 22.04 17.65 4.39 74.74 2.23 1.05 100.0 Percent Share 1994199720001997 2000 2003 22.21 20.18 16.28 18.56 17.44 13.20 3.65 2.74 3.08 75.24 78.06 76.51 1.48 0.46 4.64 1.06 1.30 2.57 100.0 100.0 100.0 20032006 15.87 10.62 5.26 73.01 8.42 2.70 100.0 19912006 8.11 6.68 12.16 11.38 24.97 21.88 11.51 Growth 19911995 15.19 17.02 7.80 16.73 0.38 20.14 16.12 Rates 19962000 -1.93 -2.33 0.29 10.38 7.42 35.58 8.68 20012006 12.71 4.40 37.78 11.24 41.97 13.43 13.55

Note: Value of Exports at Constant Prices is computed by taking 2000-01 prices as base year. Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, RBI.

Table 3.13: Share of Various Export Items within Manufactured Products percentage) Commodity A. B. C. D. E. F. G. Leather and manufactures Chemicals and related products Engineering goods Textile and textile products Gems and jewellery Handicrafts(excluding handmade carpets) Other manufactured goods Total Manufactured Exports 19911994 9.57 15.05 19.36 37.75 15.25 2.08 0.94 100.0

during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06 (In

Growth 19911995 9.07 20.21 18.19 15.22 18.34 16.17 31.11 16.73 Rates 19962000 5.66 11.56 8.43 8.61 15.36 11.73 9.67 10.38

Percent Share 1994- 1997- 20001997 2000 2003 7.27 6.01 5.33 15.36 15.98 17.93 18.62 18.25 21.05 34.60 33.84 30.77 21.19 22.79 21.95 1.88 2.23 1.84 1.09 0.90 1.13 100.0 100.0 100.0

20032006 4.06 20.11 28.03 23.77 21.96 0.76 1.32 100.0

19912006 4.52 14.77 15.31 8.11 16.21 4.63 15.05 11.38

20012006 0.60 14.99 22.49 2.05 10.84 -17.95 16.26 11.24

Note: Value of Exports at Constant Prices is computed by taking 2000-01 prices as base year.

90

Table 3.11: Share of Various Export Items within Agricultural & Allied Products during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06 (In percentage)

Commodity 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Tea Coffee Rice Wheat Cotton raw including waste Tobacco Cashew Spices Oil meals Fruits and vegetables Processed fruits, juices, miscellaneous processed items Marine products Sugar and mollases Meat and meat preparations Others Total Agricultural Exports

19911994 11.49 4.22 10.17 0.57 3.68 4.55 8.37 4.52 15.69 3.71 2.39 19.22 2.43 2.83 6.15 100.0

Percent Share 1994199720001997 2000 2003 5.79 7.96 5.92 7.06 6.53 3.76 14.85 17.10 13.33 1.66 0.00 3.89 2.84 1.49 0.37 2.41 3.83 3.07 6.92 7.42 6.75 4.48 6.48 5.45 13.15 9.45 6.70 2.75 2.39 3.50 3.85 19.91 2.46 3.01 8.85 100.0 2.98 18.84 0.43 3.25 11.85 100.0 4.60 21.88 4.59 4.62 11.58 100.0

20032006 4.46 3.15 14.52 3.99 3.42 3.14 5.73 4.70 9.60 4.87 3.64 16.73 1.77 5.35 14.94 100.0

19912006 0.09 2.32 9.22 39.48 -1.74 5.13 4.06 7.68 0.93 9.29 10.49 5.96 5.68 12.58 14.09 6.68

Growth 19911995 -7.41 39.76 36.48 32.88 -16.24 -9.35 10.74 13.39 14.13 4.72 32.80 18.65 -0.99 19.09 33.25 17.02

Rates 19962000 6.09 -9.40 -6.59 -5.88 -49.04 -2.35 10.99 3.78 -20.24 3.98 2.12 6.29 -31.68 10.77 8.04 -2.33

20012006 -5.41 1.41 8.52 -22.92 168.87 5.39 2.51 1.45 17.55 12.10 -3.20 -3.85 -41.26 14.08 16.96 4.40

Note: Value of Exports at Constant Prices is computed by taking 2000-01 prices as base year. Note: *Cashew also includes cashew nut shell liquid. **Processed fruits & juices etc. also include miscellaneous processed items. Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, RBI.

Table 3.12: Share of Various Export Items within Iron and Ore 19911994 54.54 1.22 44.24 100.0

during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06 (In percentage)

20032006 57.91 0.51 41.58 100.0 19912006 11.94 4.06 12.07 Growth 19911995 -1.75 -12.09 20.00 Rates 19962000 -9.02 6.45 6.04 20012006 61.67 4.06 18.04

Commodity 1 2 3 Iron ore Mica Others Total Iron and Ore Exports

Percent Share 1994199720001997 2000 2003 42.20 39.15 36.09 0.67 1.08 0.71 57.13 59.77 63.19 100.0 100.0 100.0

Note: Value of Exports at Constant Prices is computed by taking 2000-01 prices as base year. Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, Kolcutta.

91

Table 3.14: Composition of India's Exports at Disaggregate Level (SITC Digit 1 and 2): 1992-2006
SITC Code 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 1 11 12 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 3 32 33 34 35 4 41 42 43 5 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 6 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 7 71 72 73 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 89 9 93 94 95 96 Commodity Description Food and live animals Live animals Meat and meat preparations Dairy products and eggs Fish and fish preparations Cereals and cereal preparations Fruit and vegetables Sugar, sugar preparations and honey Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices & manufactures. thereof Feed.-stuff for animals excl. unmilled cereals Miscellaneous food preparations Beverages and tobacco Beverages Tobacco and tobacco manufactures Crude materials, inedible, except fuels Hides, skins and fur skins, undressed Oil-seeds, oil nuts and oil kernels Crude rubber including synthetic and reclaimed Wood, lumber and cork Pulp and paper Textile fibers, not manufactured, and waste Crude fertilizers and crude minerals Metalliferous ores and metal scrap Crude animal and vegetable materials Mineral fuels, lubricants and related materials Coal, coke and briquettes Petroleum and petroleum products Gas, natural and manufactured Electric energy Animal and vegetable oils and fats Animal oils and fats Fixed vegetable oils and fats Animal and vegetable oils and fats, processed Chemicals Chemical elements and compounds Crude chemicals from coal, petroleum and gas Dyeing, tanning and colouring materials Medicinal and pharmaceutical products Perfume materials, toilet & cleansing preparations Fertilizers, manufactured Explosives and pyrotechnic products Plastic materials, etc. Chemical materials and products Manufactured goods classified chiefly by material Leather, leather. manufs., & dressed fur skins Rubber manufactures Wood and cork manufactures excluding furniture Paper, paperboard and manufactures thereof Textile yarn, fabrics, made-up articles, etc. Non-metallic mineral manufactures Iron and steel Non-ferrous metals Manufactures of metal, Machinery and transport equipment Machinery, other than electric Electrical machinery, apparatus and appliances Transport equipment Miscellaneous manufactured articles Sanitary, plumbing, heating and lighting fixt. Furniture Travel goods, handbags and similar articles Clothing Footwear Scientific & control instruments etc. Miscellaneous manufactured articles Commodities & transactions not classified by kind UN Special Code Animals, incl. zoo animals, dogs and cats Firearms of war and ammunition Coin, other than gold coin, not legal tender Total Exports Composition Of Indias Exports 1992 1996 2002 2006 14.71 16.69 11.26 7.63 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.48 0.59 0.54 0.58 0.05 0.10 0.12 0.13 3.21 3.35 2.69 1.39 1.93 3.84 3.27 1.45 2.35 1.99 1.72 1.35 0.67 0.92 0.76 0.61 3.02 2.81 1.42 1.05 2.89 2.98 0.60 0.98 0.10 0.10 0.13 0.07 0.93 0.68 0.45 0.33 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.88 0.64 0.40 0.29 5.07 5.68 4.16 7.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.24 0.56 0.28 0.33 0.04 0.03 0.08 0.12 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 1.42 0.18 1.28 0.89 0.83 0.79 0.77 2.35 1.76 2.02 3.92 1.05 1.06 0.80 0.56 2.81 1.55 5.07 14.87 0.09 0.07 0.10 0.06 2.57 1.47 4.93 14.73 0.14 0.00 0.04 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.58 0.33 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.22 0.49 0.23 0.21 0.05 0.09 0.10 0.06 7.06 9.32 11.63 11.85 2.20 3.41 4.11 4.89 0.02 0.00 0.09 0.11 1.45 1.31 1.14 0.79 2.08 2.43 3.35 2.86 0.51 0.54 0.54 0.50 0.01 0.07 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.01 0.01 0.27 0.73 1.43 1.74 0.50 0.80 0.95 0.94 40.33 37.33 38.22 30.52 3.01 1.84 1.63 0.87 1.13 0.91 0.89 0.81 0.07 0.11 0.07 0.09 0.14 0.31 0.47 0.35 14.14 14.72 11.45 6.97 15.90 13.66 15.78 9.80 2.55 3.15 4.45 5.93 1.02 0.68 1.17 3.34 2.37 1.96 2.31 2.36 7.00 8.09 8.43 11.18 2.77 3.17 3.37 4.26 1.40 2.12 2.68 3.24 2.83 2.79 2.38 3.68 20.09 18.33 18.11 15.15 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.13 0.32 1.04 0.73 0.64 0.45 15.01 12.67 11.57 7.59 1.12 1.04 0.82 0.79 0.32 0.39 0.49 0.48 2.49 3.39 4.39 5.47 1.72 1.76 2.35 1.19 1.72 1.75 2.35 1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Indias Share In World Exports 1992 1996 2002 2006 1.12 1.56 1.67 1.71 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.07 0.25 0.41 0.60 0.93 0.04 0.11 0.22 0.36 1.90 2.48 2.74 2.29 0.80 1.94 2.97 2.16 0.91 0.97 1.22 1.40 1.11 1.69 2.50 2.77 3.53 3.10 2.71 2.85 3.32 4.15 1.39 3.77 0.18 0.19 0.33 0.26 0.45 0.40 0.40 0.48 0.04 0.04 0.06 0.07 0.96 0.87 1.09 1.52 0.77 1.04 1.22 2.36 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.22 0.49 1.23 0.94 1.74 0.11 0.09 0.40 0.53 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 1.91 0.48 5.90 1.64 2.05 3.01 4.51 1.73 1.54 2.42 3.13 1.46 1.97 2.19 2.45 0.24 0.14 0.51 1.28 0.11 0.11 0.23 0.14 0.27 0.17 0.63 1.60 0.11 0.00 0.03 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 0.82 0.71 0.80 0.02 0.02 0.13 0.51 0.42 0.90 0.64 0.75 0.48 0.84 1.19 1.21 0.46 0.66 0.94 1.24 0.45 0.79 1.20 1.78 0.32 0.01 1.40 1.21 1.38 1.47 1.74 1.89 0.89 1.07 1.06 1.17 0.43 0.47 0.54 0.72 0.01 0.14 0.02 0.04 0.28 0.55 0.44 0.37 0.08 0.23 0.58 0.84 0.28 0.48 0.76 1.04 1.50 1.61 2.37 2.41 3.98 2.80 3.79 3.72 0.83 0.73 1.02 1.23 0.07 0.11 0.10 0.19 0.04 0.11 0.24 0.30 2.57 3.40 4.03 4.27 4.63 4.57 6.91 6.53 0.53 0.75 1.63 2.07 0.34 0.24 0.60 1.44 0.64 0.63 0.98 1.29 0.11 0.14 0.18 0.34 0.12 0.14 0.21 0.37 0.08 0.12 0.18 0.29 0.13 0.16 0.16 0.38 0.87 0.99 1.26 1.54 0.11 0.16 0.18 0.22 0.03 0.03 0.11 0.38 2.84 2.39 2.86 2.68 2.48 2.73 3.18 3.45 0.82 1.00 1.15 1.67 0.06 0.09 0.15 0.19 0.32 0.54 0.89 1.62 0.49 0.44 0.70 0.45 N.A N.A N.A N.A 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.06 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.52 0.68 0.78 1.07

Source: Comtrade-WITS, UNO.

92

Table 3.15: Composition of India's Exports at Disaggregate Level (SITC Digit 3) during 1991-2006
SITC Codes 011 031 041 042 051 054 061 071 074 075 081 121 221 263 273 281 283 292 332 422 512 513 531 541 553 581 599 611 612 629 651 652 653 656 657 661 667 671 672 673 674 678 679 682 684 691 695 697 698 711 714 718 719 722 723 724 729 732 733 735 831 841 851 861 891 893 897 Commodity Description Meat, fresh, chilled or frozen Fish, fresh & simply preserved Wheat Rice Fruit, fresh, and nuts - excl. oil Vegetables, roots & tubers, fresh o Sugar and honey Coffee Tea and mate Spices Feed.-stuff for animals Tobacco, unmanufactured Oil-seeds, oil nuts and oil kernels Cotton Stone, sand and gravel Iron ore & concentrates Ores & concentrates of non-ferrous Crude vegetable materials Petroleum products Other fixed vegetable oils Organic chemicals Inorganic Chemicals etc Synthetic organic dyestuffs, natural industries Medicinal & pharmaceutical products Perfumery, cosmetics, dentifrices, Plastic materials, regenerated. cellulose Chemical materials and products, Leather Manufacture of leather Articles of rubber, Textile yarn and thread Cotton fabrics, woven Text fabrics woven Made-up articles, wholly or chiefly Floor coverings, tapestries, etc. Lime, cement and fabric building materials Pearls and precious and semi-precious Pig iron, spiegeleisen, sponge iron Ingots & other primary forms of iron Iron and steel bars, rods, angles etc. Universals, plates and sheets of iron Tubes, pipes and fittings of iron or Iron steel castings forgings etc. Copper Aluminum Finished structural parts etc Tools for use in the hand Household equipment of base metals Manufactures of metal Power generating machinery, other (T.A) Office machines Machines for special industries Machinery and appliances-non electrical Electric power machinery and switch Equipment for distributing electric Telecommunications apparatus Other electrical machinery and apparels Road motor vehicles Road vehicles other than motor vehicles Ships and boats Travel goods, handbags and similar Clothing except fur clothing Footwear Scientific,medical,optical,meas./co Musical instruments, sound recorders Articles of artificial plastic mate Jewellery and gold/silver-smiths wa Other Commodities Total Exports Composition Of Indias Exports 1992 1996 1992 1996 0.49 3.27 0.02 1.85 1.69 0.41 0.68 0.72 1.80 0.55 2.94 0.67 0.24 0.34 0.73 2.09 0.29 0.87 2.62 0.23 1.57 0.45 1.37 2.12 0.28 0.27 0.51 1.53 1.53 1.12 3.19 3.39 2.43 1.98 3.10 0.55 15.32 0.49 0.30 0.98 0.26 0.23 0.16 0.05 0.91 0.22 0.45 0.34 0.89 0.60 0.35 0.27 1.03 0.49 0.16 0.20 0.44 1.79 0.88 0.00 1.06 15.28 1.14 0.19 0.21 0.31 1.55 5.57 100 0.59 3.40 0.60 2.72 1.31 0.45 0.94 1.22 0.87 0.77 3.04 0.57 0.57 1.35 0.65 1.46 0.30 0.93 1.50 0.49 2.76 0.53 1.25 2.48 0.26 0.75 0.82 0.92 0.96 0.90 5.48 3.07 1.91 2.24 2.00 0.79 12.71 0.52 0.37 0.69 0.84 0.35 0.23 0.06 0.56 0.24 0.36 0.40 0.62 0.51 0.88 0.22 1.10 0.65 0.18 0.34 0.86 2.18 0.46 0.13 0.75 12.91 1.06 0.24 0.59 0.47 1.68 6.04 100 0.54 2.71 0.71 2.37 1.01 0.46 0.76 0.40 0.64 0.41 0.62 0.30 0.29 0.02 0.62 1.69 0.33 0.74 5.04 0.22 3.43 0.57 0.97 3.44 0.30 1.46 0.97 0.99 0.68 0.84 3.56 1.97 2.26 2.40 1.21 0.83 14.82 0.23 0.99 0.45 1.86 0.45 0.40 0.57 0.58 0.16 0.37 0.76 0.64 0.52 0.53 0.22 1.66 0.79 0.33 0.29 0.88 1.65 0.38 0.22 0.66 11.85 0.84 0.35 0.52 0.48 2.81 6.98 100 0.58 1.25 0.01 1.25 0.69 0.47 0.60 0.35 0.33 0.38 1.00 0.22 0.33 1.08 0.54 3.13 0.70 0.54 14.85 0.19 4.31 0.49 0.64 2.90 0.21 1.76 0.95 0.58 0.30 0.74 2.12 0.73 1.28 1.72 0.96 0.79 8.70 0.47 1.38 0.59 1.85 1.10 0.42 2.24 0.49 0.30 0.33 0.70 0.63 0.68 0.36 0.45 2.28 1.55 0.34 0.40 0.64 2.59 0.19 0.82 0.46 7.68 0.79 0.43 0.30 0.43 4.06 7.41 100 Indias Share In World Exports 1992 1996 1992 1996 0.30 2.33 0.02 8.03 1.84 0.47 1.41 2.19 17.2 9.08 3.32 2.58 0.49 1.37 5.08 6.04 0.60 1.43 0.71 1.00 0.44 0.59 3.63 0.89 0.46 0.08 0.28 3.39 5.7 0.96 2.75 4.41 1.19 4.53 7.88 1.37 13.1 2.3 0.37 1.12 0.15 0.27 1.26 0.05 0.7 0.41 0.7 1.07 0.67 0.17 0.05 0.11 0.12 0.14 0.18 0.04 0.07 0.11 1.44 0 2.84 2.51 0.82 0.05 0.09 0.19 2.05 0.60 0.69 0.50 3.07 0.96 13.63 1.75 0.70 2.18 3.18 15.44 14.6 4.15 2.94 1.23 5.47 5.77 5.45 0.72 2.10 0.47 2.09 0.85 0.85 4.23 1.07 0.43 0.23 0.48 2.09 5.29 0.88 6.08 4.98 1.23 6.00 7.63 2.26 11.5 1.79 0.48 0.92 0.56 0.51 1.81 0.07 0.45 0.59 0.69 1.51 0.52 0.18 0.12 0.10 0.14 0.19 0.20 0.07 0.10 0.17 0.97 0.11 2.39 2.76 1.00 0.07 0.33 0.37 2.99 0.88 0.73 3.35 2.35 18.72 1.92 0.97 3.36 2.44 13.1 8.41 1.39 2.94 0.94 0.20 7.97 8.64 1.25 2.41 1.85 1.26 1.23 1.42 5.69 1.06 0.56 0.58 0.76 3.38 5.28 1.15 6.46 4.65 2.40 7.00 7.56 3.69 15.03 1.39 1.80 1.02 1.90 0.97 4.25 1.04 0.64 0.51 0.94 3.67 0.67 0.20 0.09 0.16 0.29 0.29 0.47 0.07 0.13 0.15 1.05 0.24 2.86 3.20 1.15 0.13 0.38 0.44 6.24 1.16 1.14 2.61 0.04 14.91 1.94 1.48 3.47 2.44 13.18 14.54 3.77 3.94 1.74 13.93 9.96 12.01 1.46 2.82 4.20 1.52 1.97 1.40 7.47 1.17 0.55 0.84 1.04 3.75 4.21 1.36 6.69 3.51 2.59 7.07 9.87 4.59 14.79 2.38 2.35 1.18 1.87 2.36 5.19 2.60 0.63 1.09 1.25 4.87 0.87 0.39 0.10 0.39 0.54 0.77 0.59 0.11 0.14 0.35 0.66 1.24 2.68 3.47 1.67 0.19 0.34 0.55 12.11

Source: Comtrade-WITS, UNO.

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Table 3.16: Direction of Indias Exports: Region-Wise during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06 (In percentage) Percentage Share Group / Country I. OECD countries A. European Union B. North America C. Asia & Oceania D. Other OECD countries II. OPEC III. Eastern Europe IV. Developing Countries A. Asia a) SAARC b) Other Asian developing countries B. C. V. Africa Latin American countries
1991-92 to 1993-94 1994-95 to 1996-97 1997-98 to 1999-00 2000-01 to 2002-03 2003-04 to 2005-06 199192 to 200506

Growth Rates
199192 to 199596 199697 to 200001 200102 to 200506

58.40 27.13 18.80 9.57 2.90 9.70 6.61 22.99 19.21 3.83 15.38 2.83 0.95 2.28 99.90

56.64 26.65 19.68 8.30 2.01 9.52 3.84 28.46 22.98 5.04 17.94 4.11 1.36 1.54 99.95

56.99 26.18 22.71 6.35 1.75 10.45 3.45 28.54 21.88 4.48 17.40 4.73 1.92 0.57 99.96

18.36 15.84 15.49 3.39 1.20 8.39 1.87 22.08 17.15 3.32 13.83 3.27 1.66 1.81 99.98

44.85 21.49 18.18 3.53 1.66 15.18 2.16 37.35 29.60 5.73 23.87 5.24 2.51 0.45 99.99

9.19 9.20 11.70 2.47 6.66 15.82 2.68 15.67 15.11 14.19 15.33 16.89 21.12 0.01 11.49

14.88 15.76 17.37 10.99 1.91 17.99 -4.90 26.77 25.29 28.76 24.33 33.54 32.95 0.70 16.12

7.84 6.23 12.26 -0.67 8.22 11.88 5.98 7.71 6.81 3.20 7.69 8.29 18.58 11.48 8.68

9.71 12.33 7.66 3.92 14.33 20.84 3.74 20.01 20.63 17.39 21.39 16.21 21.56 -37.02 14.00

Others / unspecified

Total Trade

Note: OPEC stands for Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, RBI.

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Table 3.17: Direction of Indias Exports during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06: Country-Wise (In percentages)
1991-92 to 1993-94 1994-95 to 1996-97 1997-98 to 1999-00 2000-01 to 2002-03 2003-04 to 2005-06 1991-92 to 2005-06 1991-92 to 1995-96 1996-97 to 2000-01 2001-02 to 2005-06

Australia Belgium Canada France Germany Italy Japan Netherlands Russia Switzerland U.K. U.S.A. Total Developed Countries Afghanistan Bangladesh Benin Bhutan China Egypt Hong Kong Indonesia Iran Iraq Kenya

1.15 3.74 1.04 2.40 7.24 3.11 8.27 2.21 5.12 1.10 6.37 17.76 59.50 0.00 1.89 0.05 0.02 0.76 0.54 4.39 0.87 0.67 0.02 0.29

1.22 3.51 1.01 2.23 6.17 3.08 6.89 2.40 2.92 0.91 6.29 18.67 55.29 0.00 2.78 0.04 0.05 1.28 0.48 5.68 1.64 0.56 0.00 0.58

Developed Countries 1.17 0.95 0.86 3.69 3.23 2.87 1.41 1.39 1.07 2.37 2.18 2.01 5.26 4.15 3.62 3.13 2.77 2.63 4.99 3.69 2.54 2.33 1.99 2.11 2.48 1.73 0.86 0.99 0.89 0.61 5.74 4.97 4.68 21.30 20.45 17.10 54.87 48.39 40.97 Developing Countries 0.00 0.00 0.05 2.32 2.22 2.10 0.07 0.12 0.08 0.03 0.03 0.11 1.60 2.61 5.97 0.73 0.81 0.59 6.00 5.46 4.62 0.90 1.24 1.57 1.46 0.54 1.01 0.23 0.01 0.10 0.37 0.36 0.48

8.40 9.28 12.84 10.12 5.05 9.71 1.03 10.67 -2.31 6.71 8.39 11.63 11.05 19.67 23.59 32.95 13.89 11.96 15.07 14.64 13.75

18.12 15.00 13.75 14.19 11.39 15.37 9.66 19.52 -6.06 7.36 15.72 17.58 34.13 -0.57 99.67 55.93 15.61 32.96 44.79 8.07 53.51

2.32 9.65 18.99 11.44 1.24 9.29 -1.32 3.77 3.95 9.71 3.98 11.85 1.45 28.67 -47.25 5.39 19.49 12.41 -8.34 26.56 71.67 -2.05

8.40 10.10 4.41 11.91 8.17 11.55 2.27 17.71 -11.12 -2.34 12.63 7.87 4.51 -1.00 65.08 50.15 2.50 7.44 15.93 42.27 83.64 27.81

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Table 3.17: Continued.

1991-92 to 1993-94 1994-95 to 1996-97 1997-98 to 1999-00 2000-01 to 2002-03 2003-04 to 2005-06 1991-92 to 2005-06 1991-92 to 1995-96 1996-97 to 2000-01 2001-02 to 2005-06

Kuwait Malaysia Maldives Nepal Pakistan Romania Saudi Arabia Singapore South Africa South Korea Sri Lanka Sudan Tanzania Thailand U.A.E. Zambia Total Developing Countries Others* Total Trade

0.45 1.09 0.03 0.42 0.26 0.07 2.15 2.91 0.00 1.07 1.20 0.08 0.31 1.36 4.58 0.14 25.63 14.96 100.00

0.47 1.30 0.05 0.48 0.31 0.07 1.63 2.89 0.00 1.41 1.36 0.08 0.24 1.46 4.57 0.10 29.51 15.24 100.00

0.48 1.19 0.02 0.42 0.33 0.04 2.11 1.87 0.00 1.19 1.36 0.16 0.23 1.06 5.37 0.06 29.59 15.57 100.00

0.47 1.53 0.06 0.49 0.38 0.04 1.85 2.31 0.00 1.11 1.55 0.23 0.22 1.34 5.98 0.06 31.01 20.61 100.00

0.50 1.27 0.06 0.92 0.58 0.09 1.74 4.46 0.89 1.41 1.91 0.28 0.24 1.14 8.39 0.06 40.61 18.41 100.00

12.63 13.20 16.72 17.32 18.64 11.57 10.48 14.14 12.75 15.53 25.36 9.35 10.10 17.12 3.53 0.01 11.51

23.46 18.89 35.15 21.59 15.16 28.06 7.16 21.43 20.85 22.79 15.62 10.34 24.58 19.14 5.07 0.70 16.12

5.42 3.96 19.20 -2.31 1.23 -7.16 10.43 -1.54 -0.51 8.50 38.55 12.80 8.52 16.73 -6.13 11.48 8.68

15.55 2.86 14.49 30.07 37.14 56.17 11.33 42.94 25.72 20.44 21.71 15.97 4.04 26.71 16.05 -37.02 13.55

Note: * Others contains both the Developing and Developed countries. Source: Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics, Kolcutta.

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Table 3.18: Unit Value Index, Quantum Index and Terms of Trade during the period 1991-92 to 2005-06

Year 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Note:

Unit Value Index Exports 100.00 114.07 128.31 133.86 131.04 136.59 159.51 165.55 163.46 168.88 167.25 167.79 181.87 198.11 215.97 233.56 Imports 100.00 107.09 105.86 105.01 113.56 129.34 130.77 131.93 145.58 157.55 159.50 176.64 176.32 214.49 191.52 196.70

Quantum Index Exports 100.00 106.86 123.44 140.32 184.23 197.41 185.04 191.37 221.00 273.73 284.28 346.12 366.73 430.97 481.78 558.01 Imports 100.00 123.68 144.34 179.08 225.79 224.47 246.54 282.54 309.21 306.14 321.49 351.75 425.44 488.16 723.25 897.81 Gross1 100.00 115.75 116.93 127.63 122.56 113.71 133.23 147.64 139.92 111.84 113.09 101.63 116.01 113.27 150.12 160.90

Terms of Trade Net2 100.00 106.53 121.21 127.46 115.40 105.60 121.98 125.48 112.28 107.19 104.86 94.99 103.15 92.36 112.76 118.74 Income3 100.00 113.83 149.68 178.95 212.59 208.48 225.77 240.21 248.18 293.43 298.31 329.03 378.39 398.15 543.47 662.60

1. Gross terms of trade imply volume index of imports expressed as percentage of volume index of exports. 2. Net terms of trade implyunit value index of exports expressed as percentage of unit value index of imports. 3. Income terms of trade imply the product of net terms of trade and volume index of exports expressed as a percentage.

Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, RBI.

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Table 3.19: Commodity Concentration and Geographic Concentration of Indias Exports during the Period 1991-92 to 2005-06.
1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 1993-94 1994-95 1995-96 1996-97 1997-98 1998-99 1999-00 2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 R Commodity Concentration Index 0.66 0.66 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.67 0.66 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.66 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.66 Geographic Concentration Index 0.63 0.59 0.59 0.57 0.58 0.55 0.56 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.57 0.61 0.60 0.59 0.58 0.57 0.57

Source: Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, RBI.

Table 3.20: Contribution of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) to Indias Exports during the period from 2000-01 to 2005-06.

Year

Value of Indias Total Exports (Rs in Crore)

Growth Rate over Previous Year

Value of SEZ Exports (Rs in Crore)

Growth Rate over Previous Year 7.5 9.4 37.8 32.2 24.7 --

SEZ Export as % Share of Total Exports

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 AAGR

203571 209018 255137 293367 375340 456418 12.47

2.7 22.1 14.9 27.9 21.6 --

8552 9190 10053 13854 18309 22840 16.96

4.2 4.4 3.9 4.7 4.9 5.0 --

Note: AAGR: Average Annual Growth Rate. Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Department of Commerce, Government of India and Economic Survey 2006-07, Government of India.

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