Technology

The future of agriculture

Dramatic price fluctuations, increasing demand, the food vs. fuel debate, and other events of the past year may have food producers wondering which way is up. Despite these recent uncertainties, 'up' is precisely the direction an Iowa State researcher believes agriculture is headed for at least the next 10 years. Wally Huffman, professor in agricultural economics and Charles F. Curtiss Distinguished Professor in Agriculture and Life Sciences, predicts supply will go up, demand will go up, and real prices of grain and oilseeds also will go up. "I'm very optimistic about the next 10 years," said Huffman. Huffman presented his research to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development in Paris, France, last month. OECD and the Iowa Agricultural Experiment Station supported the research. An important part of Huffman's study was the long-term trend of corn and soybean yields in Iowa, wheat in Kansas and France, rice in Japan and potatoes in the Netherlands. Huffman examined the trends and then made projections about the next decade. The optimism starts with the producers. "Prices right now for corn and soybeans are up about 50 percent relative to two years ago, so those are relatively good prices," he said. "That's good news for grain producers." The impact that the rising demand for biofuels will have on the market for agricultural products is not entirely clear, but grain and oilseed prices will generally be higher than they would be without biofuels. "Overall, biofuels are probably a good thing for farmers," he said. "However, there will be more erratic variation in grain and oilseed prices than there would be without biofuels," he said. The main reasons are the erratic components to both supply and demand of crude oil. While biofuels are pushing demand for grain and oilseeds up, Huffman says the long-term trend in supply of grain and oilseeds is due to new technologies that are being developed by the private sector and marketed to farmers. "Supply is going up, and demand is going up," he said. "I think they will grow at a similar pace. There will be occasional spikes due to bad weather and abrupt restriction in crude oil production, but prices will come down. When they do, they will come down to similar levels to what they are now in real terms, and those are pretty good prices. "For the past 100 years, on average, real agricultural product prices have been falling as technology has been allowing supply to increase faster than demand," he said. But for the past decade, demand has been rising as quickly as supply, he added. Yields for major field crops in major producing areas have been steadily increasing. There is no indication that the rate is slowing and no reason to fear falling crop yields. Huffman predicts that the rate of increase in yields for corn and soybeans in major production areas will rise much faster than it has in the past 50 years. "In the case of corn, since 1955 the average rate of increase in Iowa crop yield has been two bushels, per acre, per year," said Huffman. "That's an amazing accomplishment starting from about 65 bushels, per acre, per year in 1955, up to about 165 bushels, per acre, per year now." Huffman thinks the future will be even better. "From 2010 to 2019, corn yields are going to increase quite substantially, maybe at four to six bushels, per acre, per year," he said.

Much of the increase will be due to genetic improvements in hybrid corn varieties associated with new, multiple stacking of genes for insect protection and herbicide tolerance that will permit a major increase in plant populations. These improvements are the result of corn that has been genetically modified (GM) to have certain desirable traits. Also, better equipment, improved farm management, and reduced- and no-till farming will contribute to rising corn yields in the Midwest. Other commodities have also improved yield and will likely see continuing increases, according to Huffman. Soybean yields in Iowa also are increasing, although less dramatically than corn, says Huffman. The trend over the past 50 years is an increase of about .5 bushel, per acre, per year (bu/ac/yr). That rate of improvement in Iowa soybean yields will continue or possibly increase over the next decade. Current soybean yields are about 50 bu/ac/yr. Kansas is the leading producer of wheat in the United States with yields of about 45 bu/ac/yr. Yields have been improving at about .5 bu/ac/yr since about 1950. Farmers in France are producing wheat at about 113 bu/ac/yr. Yields are improving at more than 1.5 bu/ac/yr. France is the leading wheat producer in the European Union, and Huffman attributes much of their production advantage to the French emphasis on wheat advantage. They are also showing faster production improvement. France often puts their best land into wheat production. Huffman predicts wheat yields may increase faster if GM wheat is more successful. Japan is a major rice producer. Yields are improving at a rate of .5 bu/ac/yr, and are now at 113 bu/ac/yr compared to around 90 bu/ac/yr in 1960. GM rice has been tried, but has not measurably increased yields, according to Huffman. Netherlands is the most advanced country in the world when it comes to potato production technology. Yields in the Netherlands have been increasing by about 4.6 bu/ac/yr over the last 50 years and are now at 670 bu/ac/yr. "Potatoes are a major world food crop and they don't get a lot of attention," said Huffman. "They are consumed in large amounts in Europe and other places, including the United States, and yields are phenomenal." Several variables will impact the future of crops. According to Huffman, the biggest are: * both private companies and government researchers are working on improving production * higher yields as a result of new techniques in breeding crops, including methods to condense decades of breeding and testing into a few years * change in biofuels from corn-based to biomass-based by 2019 * GM crops gain more acceptance in Europe

With the fast changing global environment and the adoption of latest technologies in farming across the world, it seems apt for Indian agriculture to look into the possibilities of leveraging technology to stay competitive. The world is no longer a cluster of Standalone Islands; rather it has become a conglomeration of interconnected territories. Today if the price of a commodity is changed in one corner of the globe; it surely does impact the price of another in a distant land which is thousands of miles away. The current context thus calls for industries to be aware and updated about the changing trading policies. And agriculture is no exception to the rule. As it has been widely accepted by most that in todays world the way information is being gathered and shared would play a very significant role in developmental process. And agricultural sector is also going to be positively affected if the flow of information increases. However, it is easy to talk about the collection and dissemination of information. But it is a difficult task to achieve the same, and more so in agricultural sector where the information infrastructure is at the most primitive stage. So when we talk about increasing the information flow and management of the same we are talking about a lot of investment. However the cost associated to achieve this target can be minimized and the information flow to the participants in agriculture can be enhanced by leveraging information technology. Let us see how! IT adoption in Agriculture The effectiveness and efficiency of the information used in agriculture can be increased multifold by the adoption of Information Technology in agriculture. Information access and improved communication is viewed as having direct implications for the socio-economic development of a nation. And in Indian context we can say that the social and economic development of the Indian agrarian community can be brought in with the effective use of IT. The farmers still face the problems of inadequate information related to cultivation of crops, the presence of which could have enhanced the decision making capability of the farmers. IT seems to be a promising medium through which relevant information can be communicated to help in farming and post harvest processes. Areas of Importance: The following can be looked upon as the areas of development in IT to leverage information in an effective way to decrease the order and delivery time. It would also help in customer relationship management.

A database for crops can be maintained: The database repository can include important information about the types of crops and land holding pattern. This information can be transmitted via the internet to the database server. The information thus accumulated can play a significant role in the decision making process. Production techniques and information inquiry system should be created. This repository should ideally be having the best and innovative techniques developed by R&D institutes or some progressive farmers. Would be a great source of information for the farmers to access and utilize. System for inquiry about farm machineries: This system can be developed by the companies operating in the farm machinery sector. This can help the farmers to get information about the best equipments to use and similarly the companies can promote their farm equipments.

A similar system for agricultural inputs like seeds, fertilizers etc can be developed by the relevant companies.

The government is not only aware of these possibilities but they have also initiated steps to achieve significant goals in this regard. The National Agricultural Policy lays high importance on the implementation of IT for agricultural sector. And the Department of Agriculture has also led visionary plans for the same. In future therefore we will witness a reduction in cost and time of information system through the use of Information technology. IT will enable farmers to take more precise and informed decisions through the enhanced control that they will have on the information channels. Some of the key concerns that IT can address and help farmers decide better are:

Information about the benefits of increased irrigation Cost-effective use of fertilizers and chemicals How and when to market the produce How and when to order the agricultural inputs needed for farming

So it seems that the use of information technology will enable the farmers to come up with cost-effective and profitable marketing and distribution strategies. Further it would be possible to trade online thus reducing a lot of post-harvest cost. And it would lead to a collaborative system of information sharing among the various key players in the entire agricultural supply chain. However the picture is not that rosy a lot of problems beset the effective implementation and use of IT faces a lot of challenges. When we talk about the use of IT we are talking about users who have very low literacy rate. This would act as a barrier since most of the applications and software are built on English language. Other key issues are :

The lack of proper communication infrastructure Cost of computers Small individual farmers incapability to adapt to IT due to financial and education constraint. Low adaptability to new technology due to lack of awareness.

Given these facts it seems difficult to implement IT systems for each individual, but an institutional approach seems to be more promising. In this regard India faces another problem of magnitude. Around 85 percent of farmers in India are small farmers who have less than 2 hectare of land. So to expect them to individually come up with information systems for their farm land would be a impossible proposition.Instead the Government should encourage small farmers to pool resources to form groups and start farming in groups so as to enhance their spending capabilities when it comes to use of IT. This would be beneficial and a commercially viable option for the farmers as it could lead to attainment of efficient trading and marketing practices for the farmers. It would not be an overstatement if we say that agricultural growth would be information driven and IT is going to be the solution for the growing challenges for the farmers which are brought in by rising cost, increasing competition and globalization. Some of the companies like ITC have already realized the business potential that they can generate through effective use of IT.

The internet kiosks set up by ITC under their e-Chaupal initiative is a step towards that direction. The future of agriculture is in IT or is it the future of IT is in agriculture! Did someone say collaboration?

Role of Information Technology in Agriculture

By Ainsley Wirekoon Information Technology (IT) has long been viewed as having great potential for improving decision making in agriculture. IT has connected the world globally and is now changing our life style and social consciousness dynamically. In all phases of the agricultural industry, information technologies are vital to the management and success of a business. Agriculture has also been greatly influenced by IT. Information Technology is rapidly becoming more and more visible in society and agriculture. IT refers to how we use information, how we compute information, and how we communicate information to people. People must have computer and information technology. To participate and make informed decisions in the agricultural industry a person must have ability to gather, process, and manipulate data. The Internet is a standing topic in newspapers and on television, and the number of users doubles every year. People who use information technology creatively are pioneering careers in agriculture today. Jobs in today's agricultural workforce require greater use of technological skills than ever before. IT supports new methods for precision agriculture like computerized farm machinery that applies for fertilizers and pesticides. Farm animals are fed and monitored by electronic sensors and identification systems. Selling or buying online began to become popular in the world. However, it's most important role remains communication, and the Internet has provided us with an ideal opportunity to do so. One such communication tool is the Web Site, which simply replaces the newspaper as a communication tool. Presently, almost every company has its own web site The following are specific ways information technologies being applied through agricultural education:

Basic Internet Applications PowerPoint Presentations Global Position-ing Systems (GPS) E-Commerce

Preservice Teacher Education: 4Applications in Teaching Methods - Anyone who will be involved in teaching, whether in a formal setting like the public schools or in an informal setting like an extension workshop, needs to know how to incorporate information technology into their daily teaching. 4 Student Teaching - In some instances, it can be difficult to visit student teachers. With fewer faculties available to supervise interns and added responsibilities, sometimes supervision needs to be done in an alternative way. Professional Development: 4Alternative Certification Programs - In many countries, there is a shortage of teachers. These "beginning" teachers have

no training in program planning or teaching methods, yet countries are willing to place them in classroom situations. 4 Graduate Education - Many teachers want to earn higher degrees, but have difficulty in finding the time to complete degrees. With the wide array of information technologies available, teachers can complete courses from the convenience of their office or home and never have to set foot on campus again. 4Technical Updates - Individuals who need to get updated about technical information in agriculture can easily look at information if it is placed on a web-site. In order to take the real status of agricultural production and marketing, there is an urgent need to develop the following items: 4Farmers' crop database must be managed. The database includes the kinds of crops, the size of cultivated area, time of harvest and yield. Farmers or the extension personnel transmit those data via the Internet to a database server. 4Crops information service system should be created. There are many ways in which Information Technology can be used to exchange the information rather effectively through communication like information kiosks which provide not only the basic services like email, helps in education, health services, Agriculture and Irrigation, online trading, community services etc., expert systems which helps in determining marketing alternatives and optimal strategies for producers, integrated crop management systems for different crops. The use of IT in agribusiness in some countries is quite advanced. The situation in Sri Lanka is quite different, with low levels of computer literacy and usage in the farm sector, with technology transfer 'across the last mile' remaining the weakest link in the Sri Lanka. But farmers often go to great efforts to obtain better information, and much attention is being given by the Government and NGOs to the development of wireless networks, tele centers and other methods for promoting IT access and knowledge diffusion in the rural sector in Sri Lanka. Nevertheless, IT is likely to become increasingly important in innovation diffusion in agriculture, in both developed countries and in developing economies such as Sri Lanka. In implementing policies to this end, Sri Lanka must give due attention to the complex interactions between the many players to the role of tacit knowledge and social actors, and to the low level of the IT literacy in the rural sector. Lack of information at the proper time causes a huge loss to farmers. This gap in communication may be bridged by information technology. Information of the required quality always has the potential of improving efficiency in all spheres of agriculture. In the context of rice processing industry the potential of information technology can be assessed broadly under two heads: (a) as a tool for direct contribution to rice milling productivity and (b) as an indirect tool for empowering millers to take informed and quality decisions which will have positive impact on the way rice processing and allied activities are conducted. The techniques of remote sensing using satellite technologies, geographical information systems, and agronomy and soil sciences are used to increase the rice output. This approach is capital intensive and useful where large tracts of land are involved.

The use of IT in agriculture has grown rapidly in the past few years. It is increasingly being used to help managers make better decisions. However, IT and the problem facing decision makers are constantly changing. Thus, future information systems for research purposes will be significantly different than current systems because of these changes. IT has been one of the most aspired fields in today's world. Integrating IT with agriculture will help any country to regulate its overall economy and trade. The different Information Technologies like Expert System in Decision Support System and Remote Sensing have brought revolution in world agriculture.

The Agricultural Chemicals Usage Database contains certain information on the agricultural chemicals used in Australia from 1997 to 2006 by broadacre farmers. The database allows governments, chemical users and the community to view trends in the usage of chemicals over an entire decade. Important information about the limitations and interpretation of the data are below. It is strongly recommended that you read this information before using the database.

Search the Agricultural Chemical Usage Database

How were the data collected and processed?

This database contains information from sources that are external to the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities. The Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities takes reasonable care in obtaining this information but has no direct control over, nor does it accept responsibility for, the content or accuracy of the information, the changes that may occur to the information, or the security arrangements applying to the information. It is the responsibility of users to make their own decisions about the accuracy, currency, reliability and completeness of information contained in this database. The Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities disclaims all liability to any person in respect of any thing, and of the consequence of any thing, done or omitted to be done by any such person in reliance, whether wholly or partly, upon any information presented on this database. The data were collected quarterly through surveys to report the use of agricultural chemicals (mainly herbicides) by a representative sample of broadacre, cotton and sugarcane farmers throughout the main farming regions of Australia. Central and north-western Australia were not covered by the survey and therefore there are no maps available for the Northern Territory. The data were analysed to estimate the total volume of the active ingredient applied in regions known as statistical local areas (SLAs) as used by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Estimates of the total volumes by crop were calculated from the same survey data.

What data are available?

The estimated use of each chemical is presented in two forms; a map for the total volume used within an SLA and a table for the total volume used by crop. The panel survey from which the data were sourced has a limited coverage and therefore the database does not provide a complete picture of all types of agricultural chemicals. The focus is mainly on herbicides and is limited to broadacre crops. When viewing the maps, it should be noted that:

Figures mapped are based on the estimated total volume applied within the SLA and have then been grouped into ranges to create the colour key for the map. Based on the limits of the data, exact figures for each SLA cannot be provided.

The application volume is reported in kilograms and can vary significantly between crops. Although maps report at the scale of SLAs, it is important to note that this does not imply all land in the SLA was treated. Land within each SLA may have diverse uses and therefore the farming areas to which a

chemical was applied may only be a small part of the SLA, however the whole SLA will be coloured.

If making comparisons on chemical usage between maps, please note that the scale of the map and colour key varies significantly across years and chemicals. SLAs are not all the same size or composition. Further information on SLAs may be found in the Australian Standard of Geographical Classification (number 1216.0) on the Australian Bureau of Statistics website -www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/1216.02002?OpenDocument. See the 2002 and 2003 versions in the Past and Future Releases tab for the relevant maps used in this database. The average total application for aggregated years is calculated as an average of the years for which data were available. Only two options are available based changes to the survey between 2002 and 2003. Therefore, aggregates are only available for the periods 1997-2002 and 2003-2006, and one cannot query the database on other combinations of years.. In addition, it should not be assumed that data were available for the active ingredient for every year or that the application occurred at the reported volume every year. This is of particular importance to note when new chemicals were approved mid-way through the period, the maps should not be assumed to indicate that the chemical was in use in the earlier years. The estimated total volume applied by crop type is tabulated. This information is the annual total volume of the active ingredient used in Australia or the entire chosen state for the year/aggregated years. When reading the table, it should be noted that:

As the database aims to show the total volume of each chemical that was applied to the environment, the application to fallow has also been included in the totals. Prior to 2003, where an active ingredient was applied pre-seeding or to fallow, the use has been attributed to the crop that was later sown or the main crop bordered by the fallow. From 2003, application to fallow has been listed as a separate crop.

The data are displayed to three decimal places as a result of calculation and estimation methods. It should not be assumed that the data are accurate to this level as all figures are estimates. The average annual use was calculated using the data that were available in the aggregated year block. It should not be assumed that data were available for the active ingredient in every year or that the listed volume was applied to that crop every year within the block.

The percentage use figures have been rounded so that the total of all percentages may not be exactly 100 per cent. The 'Other' crops are the sum of all crops which used less than one per cent of the total.

How can the database be searched?

To search the database you are required to specify both the year or aggregated years and a chemical. The search criteria must be entered in the order they appear on the screen. There are a limited number of combinations for the search results as the data in the database were constrained by the manner in which the survey data were designed and reported. Accordingly one may not query the database for all combinations of variables: data are only available for certain set combinations. 1. By year or aggregated years using pull-down menus. The database can be searched to return

results for an individual year or average results for aggregated groups of years 1997-2002 and 20032006. 2. By chemical name using text or using the search button. When the year or aggregated years is selected, the chemicals with available data are listed. To view this list either type the first few letters of the chemical of interest or click on the magnifying glass symbol to retrieve the complete list and find the chemical name. 3. By state using a pull-down menu. This is optional. If no choice is made the search will return results for the whole of Australia. Chemicals are listed by active ingredient. If you cannot find a specific chemical it may be because you are looking for the brand name. Check the product label to ensure you have the name of the active ingredient.

Data mining in agriculture

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Data mining in agriculture is a very recent research topic. It consists in the application of data mining techniques to agriculture. Recent technologies are nowadays able to provide a lot of information on agricultural-related activities, which can then be analyzed in order to find important information. [1] A related, but not equivalent term is precision agriculture. Applications :

Prediction of problematic wine fermentations

Wine is widely produced all around the world. The fermentation process of the wine is very important, because it can impact the productivity of wine-related industries and also the quality of wine. If we were able to predict how the fermentation is going to be at the early stages of the process, we could interfere with the process in order to guarantee a regular and smooth fermentation. Fermentations are nowadays studied by using different techniques, such as, for example, the k-means algorithm,[2] and a technique for classification based on the concept of biclustering.[3] Note that these works are different from the ones where a classification of different kinds of wine is performed. See the wiki page Classification of wine for more details.
[edit]Detection of diseases from sounds issued by animals

The detection of animal's diseases in farms can impact positively the productivity of the farm, because sick animals can cause contaminations. Moreover, the early detection of the diseases can allow the farmer to cure the animal as soon as the disease appears. Sounds issued by pigs can be analyzed for the detection of diseases. In particular, their coughs can be studied, because they indicate their sickness. A computational system is under development which is able to monitor pig sounds by microphones installed in the farm, and which is also able to discriminate among the different sounds that can be detected.[4]
[edit]Sorting apples by watercores

Before going to market, apples are checked and the ones showing some defects are removed. However, there are also invisible defects, that can spoil the apple flavor and look. An example of invisible defect is the watercore. This is an internal apple disorder that can affect the longevity of the fruit. Apples with slight or mild watercores are sweeter, but apples with moderate to sever degree of watercore cannot be stored for any length of time. Moreover, a few fruits with severe watercore could spoil a whole batch of apples. For this reason, a computational system is under study which takes X-ray photographs of the fruit while they run on conveyor belts, and which is also able to analyse (by data mining techniques) the taken pictures and estimate the probability that the fruit contains watercores.[5]

[edit]Optimizing pesticide usage by data

mining

Recent studies by agriculture researchers in Pakistan (one of the top four cotton producers of the world) showed that attempts of cotton crop yield maximization through pro-pesticide state policies have led to a dangerously high pesticide usage. These studies have reported a negative correlation between pesticide usage and crop yield in Pakistan. Hence excessive use (or abuse) of pesticides is harming the farmers with adverse financial, environmental and social impacts. By data mining the cotton Pest Scouting data along with the meteorological recordings it was shown that how pesticide usage can be optimized (reduced). Clustering of data revealed interesting patterns of farmer practices along with pesticide usage dynamics and hence help identify the reasons for this pesticide abuse.[6]
[edit]Explaining pesticide abuse by data

mining

To monitor cotton growth, different government departments and agencies in Pakistan have been recording pest scouting, agriculture and metrological data for decades. Coarse estimates of just the cotton pest scouting data recorded stands at around 1.5 million records, and growing. The primary agro-met data recorded has never been digitized, integrated or standardized to give a complete picture, and hence cannot support decision making, thus requiring an Agriculture Data Warehouse. Creating a novel Pilot Agriculture Extension Data Warehouse followed by analysis through querying and data mining some interesting discoveries were made, such as pesticides sprayed at the wrong time, wrong pesticides used for the right reasons and temporal relationship between pesticide usage and day of the week.[7]
[edit]