Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 29, 29 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn gn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company d does oes not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, dist distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 29, 29 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment rose to 85.1 85.1-mark in July. German Import Prices declined by 0.8 percent in the month of June. Japans Retail Sales gained by 1.6 percent in the last month. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today ahead of the monetary policy meeting in this week for major global economies. However, sharp downside in markets was cushioned as a result of favorable economic data from US on Friday and increase in Japans retail sales data in todays trade. US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment increased by 1.2 points to 85.1 85.1mark in July as against a rise of 83.9-level level in June. Revised UoM Inflation Expectations gained by 3.1 percent in current month from 3.3 percent a month ago. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 1.2 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the currency. Further, favorable economic data from the US exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of positive economic data from country led to expectations of pullback in stimulus measures from Federal Reserve by end of this year. The DX touched a weekly low of 81.64 and closed at 81.764 on Friday. On a weekly basis, The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.5 percent. The currency appreciated on the back of measures taken by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to curb CAD by restrictions on gold imports along with lowering the amount banks can borrow row or lend under its daily liquidity window. Further, approval of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 13 sectors by Indian government supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in currency was capped on account of dollar demand from importers. ters. Additionally, weak domestic markets prevented gains in the Rupee. The currency touched a weekly high of 58.693 and closed at 59.033 on Friday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.6393.60 crores th ($1066.90 million) as on 26 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.65,8784.70 crores ($12,433.90 million) till 26 July 2013. Japans Retail Sales rose by 1.6 percent in June as against a rise of 0.8 percent a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 59.033 Prev day -0.1 0.1

as on 26 July, 2013 w-o-w 0.5 m-o-m 2.8 y-o-y -6.4

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3278

0.0

1.0

2.1

7.8

Dollar Index NIFTY

81.76

-0.4 0.4

-1.1

-1.9

2.9

5886.2

-0.4 0.4

-2.4

5.3

15.2

SENSEX

19748.2

-0.3 0.3

-2.0

6.4

8.0

DJIA

15558.8

0.0

0.1

4.4

20.7

S&P

1691.7

0.1

0.0

5.5

24.4

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated around 1 percent in the last week on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, favorable economic data from the region supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched touch a weekly high of 1.3296 and closed at 1.3278 against the dollar on Friday. Friday German Import Prices declined by 0.8 percent in June as against a previous fall of 0.4 percent a month ago.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 29, 29 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Market Highlights - Gold (% change) Spot gold prices increased around 3 percent in the last week on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global market sentiments acted as a positive factor for prices. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of decline in SPDR gold holdings to 927.35 tonnes which is at lowest level since February 2009. The yellow metal touched a weekly high of $1347.69/oz and closed at $1333.29/oz in last trading session of the week. In the Indian markets, prices rose around 2.7 percent but appreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp gains and closed at Rs.27,405/10 gms on Friday after touching a high of Rs.27,716/10 gms in the last week. The SPDR Gold Trust holdings have declined more than 31 percent this year. Holdings have slipped to 927.35 tonnes and declined around 0.5 percent in the last week indicating a weakness in ETF demand, a major component of investment demand.
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1333.3 Prev. day 0.0 as on 26 July, 2013 WoW 2.9 MoM 8.8 YoY -17.8

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

27500.0

0.9

3.0

5.8

-8.3

1331.0

0.4

2.7

7.7

-17.8

$/oz

1329.0

0.7

2.8

8.6

-17.4

Rs /10 gms

27405.0

0.0

2.7

4.9

-8.0

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 20.0 41680.0 Prev day -1.3 0.4

as on 26 July, 2013 WoW 2.5 1.7 MoM 7.8 2.5 YoY -28.0 -22.1

Silver
Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with weaknes weakness in the DX, Spot silver prices increased around 2.5 percent in the last week. However, downside in the base metals group capped sharp gains in the prices. The white metal touched a weekly high of $20.60/oz and closed at $19.95 in last trade of the week. On the domestic front, prices rose around 1.1 percent but appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp gains and closed at Rs.40,763/kg on Friday after touching a high of Rs.42,444/kg in prior week. Holdings in the iShares Silver Trust rose around 1.3 percent last week to 10419.04 tonnes. Month-to-date, date, iShares Silver Trust Holdings gained around 5.2 percent and year-to-date date are increased about 3.3 percent.

$/oz $/ oz

2002.0 20.1

0.5 0.7

3.1 3.6

7.2 3.6

-27.8 -26.6

Rs / kg

40763.0

-1.6

1.1

3.0

-23.4

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Outlook
Precious metal prices are expected to trade on a lower note in todays trade, taking cues from fall in prices in previous trade. Additionally, decline in SPDR holdings coupled with mixed global market sentiments will add downside pressure in prices. However, weakness in the DX will cushion sharp fall in prices. Appreciation in the Rupee will exert downside pressure in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for July 29, 2013 Support 1321/1314 27500/27350 19.60/19.40 40700/40300 Resistance 27750/27950 1333/1342 19.90/20.20 41400/41900
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 29, 29 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined more than 3 percent in the last week taking cues from rise in the US crude output which is at highest level in 22 years. Further, rise in US crude production because of new technology added downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on the back of declining trend in inventories, weakness ss in the DX along with favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone. Crude oil prices touched a weekly of $103.90/bbl and closed at $104.70/oz in last trading session of the previous week. On the domestic bourses, MCX crude August contract dropped by 3. 3.9 percent on account of appreciation in the Rupee and crude oil prices touched a low of Rs.6,174/bbl in last week and closed at Rs.6,211/bbl on Friday. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Sep 13) ICE Brent Crude (Sep13) MCX Crude (Aug 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 108.6 104.7 Prev. day -0.5 -0.7 WoW -1.6 -3.1 as on 26 July, 2013 MoM 7.6 8.4 YoY 1.5 17.1

$/bbl

107.2

-0.4

-0.8

5.4

0.7

Rs/bbl

6211.0

-0.8

-3.9

7.2

24.1

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Aug 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.56 210.2 Prev. day -2.4 -2.8 WoW -5.60 -6.87

as on 26 July, 2013 MoM -5.12 -6.83 YoY 15.02 22.21

Source: Reuters

Natural Gas
On a weekly basis, Nymex natural gas prices decline around 5.6 percent taking cues from rise in US natural gas inventories. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of warm winter weathe weather conditions led to expectations of increase in gas demand for air condition purposes which prevented sharp fall in prices. Gas prices touched a weekly low of $3.548/mmbtu and closed at $3.56/mmbtu in last trade of the week. On the domestic front, prices slipped around 6.9 percent on the back of appreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.210.30/mmbtu on Friday after touching a weekly low of Rs.207.70/mmbtu. Outlook

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a lower note on the back of rise in the US crude oil output in last week week. Further, expectations of weak demand for fuel from emerging economies, , forecast for decline in US pending home sales data in evening session along with mixed global markets will exert downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside side in prices will be cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will add more downside pressure in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Aug13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for July 29, 2013 Support 103.50/102.40 6140/6080 Resistance 105.30/106.20 6250/6300
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 29, 29 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals complex traded on a negative note in the last week as a result of decline in Chinas manufacturing data along with expectations that Chinese economy will not be able to meet its growth target in current year by IMF. Further, mixed LME inventories scenario also exerted downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on the back of weakness in the DX. Additionally, favorable economic data from Euro Zone and GDP growth in UK prevented sharp fall in prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee exerted downside pressure in prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (July13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (July13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (July13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (July13)
Source: Reuters

as on 26 July, 2013 WoW -0.9 MoM -12.6 YoY -9.4

Last 6855.0

Prev. day -2.2

$/tonne

Rs/kg

408.3

-2.2

-1.4

-0.1

-2.9

$/tonne

1798.5

-1.4

-1.5

1.4

-5.5

Rs /kg

104.0

-1.4

-2.3

-1.1

0.5

Copper
Copper prices traded on a negative note in the last week and declined around 1 percent on the back of contraction in Chinese manufacturing data. Further, favourable economic data from US led to expectations of pullback in stimulus measures from Fed exerting downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices was restricted as a result of decline in LME and Shanghai copper inventories coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, favourable economic data from Euro Zone and UK along with upbeat global markets prevented fall in prices. The red metal touched a weekly low of $6837 6837/tonne and closed at $6855/tonne in last trading session of the week week. On the domestic front, prices dropped 1.4 percent on the back of appreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs. 408.30/kg 0/kg on Friday after touching a low of Rs.407.30/kg in the previous week. . Copper Inventories LME copper inventories declined around 2.7 percent to 621,175 tonnes for the last week. SHFE inventories fell 3.5 percent to 161,564 th tonnes respectively for the week ending on 26 July 2013. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metals group to trade on lower note on the back of expectations of decline in US pending home sales data in evening session. Further, forecast for weak economic growth in China coupled with mixed global markets will add more downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside side in prices will be cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. . In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will add pressure in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc July 13 MCX Lead July 13 MCX Aluminum July13 MCX Nickel July 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for July 29, 201 2013 Support 405/401 107/106 120.8/119.8 209.5/208.8 807/798 Resistance 411/415 108.8/109.8 122.5/123.5 211.20/212 823/833

$/tonne

13843.0

-2.2

-2.4

1.6

-13.4

Rs /kg

815.4

-2.1

-2.9

-1.2

-7.6

$/tonne

2053.8

-1.0

0.6

1.2

6.4

Rs /kg

121.1

-0.7

0.2

-1.8

14.0

$/tonne

1849.0

-1.5

-0.8

0.5

-0.3

Rs /kg

107.9

-1.2

-1.3

-1.7

5.4

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 26th July 621,175 5,483,175 199,578 1,051,025 198,250 25th July 622,950 5,464,025 200,010 1,055,300 198,500 Actual Change -1,775 19,150 -432 -4,275 -250 (%) Change -0.3 0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Monday| July 29, 29 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Retail Sales y/y Nationwide HPI m/m Net Lending to Individuals m/m CBI Realized Sales Pending Home Sales m/m

Japan UK UK UK US

5:20am 29 -31st 2:00pm 3:30pm 7:30pm

th

1.6% -

1.7% 1.4B 11 -1.1%

0.8% 0.3% 1.0B 1 6.7%

Medium Medium Medium Medium High

www.angelcommodities.com