Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 30, 30 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 30, 30 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Pending Home Sales declined by 0.4 percent in the last month. UKs CBI Realized Sales was at 17-mark mark in the current month. Japans Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9 percent in month of June. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of decline in Japans unemployment rate which showed signs of economic growth in the country. US Pending Home Sales declined by 0.4 percent in June as against a rise of 5.8 percent a month ago. The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note and gained marginally around 0.01 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the currency. Further, urther, unfavorable pending home sales data from the US supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of ease in concerns that Fed will not pullback its stimulus measures very soon. The DX touched an intra-day day high of 81.94 and closed at 81.76 on Monday. The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.9 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of weak global and domestic markets. Further, expectations of economic growth below t the target of 6 percent exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in currency was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX. The currency touched an intra-day low of 59.54 and closed at same levels on Monday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.6104.20 crores th ($1017.77 million) as on 29 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.66074.20 crores ($12,483.10 million) till 29 July 2013. s at 1.5 billion Pounds in June as UKs Net Lending to Individuals was against a rise of 1.2 billion Pounds a month ago. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Realized Sales was at 17-mark mark in July from earlier 1 1-level in June. Mortgage Approvals remained unchanged at 58,000 in the month of June. Japans Household Spending declined by 0.4 percent in June as against a previous fall of 1.6 percent in May. Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.9 percent in June from rise of 4.1 percent a month ago. Prelim Industrial Production declined by 3.3 percent in last month with respect to rise of 1.9 percent in earlier month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 47.64 Prev day -0.11 0.11

as on 29 July, 2013 w-o-w -3.21 m-o-m -4.92 y-o-y -2.90

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3745

0.48

-2.50

-4.70

5.77

Dollar Index NIFTY

76.875

-0.16 0.16

1.73

4.23

-5.49

5012.55

1.45

-2.19

-0.87

-13.51

SENSEX

16709.6

1.47

-2.08

-0.78

-13.63

DJIA

11246.73

1.27

-1.47

-1.43

6.84

S&P

1188.68

1.35

-0.83

-0.44

6.03

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated around 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of strength in the DX. Further, weak global market sentiments exerted downside pressure on the currency. day low of 1.3238 and a closed at The Euro touched an intra-day 1.326 against the dollar on Monday. Monday .

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 30, 30 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices decreased around 0.5 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of strength in the DX. Further, weak global market sentiments acted as a negative factor for prices. Additionally, declining trend in SPDR gold holdings which stands at 927.35 tonnes lowest level since February 2009 exerted downside pressure on prices. The yellow metal touched an intraday low of $1324.69/oz and closed at $1327/oz in the yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices gained by more than 3 percent on account of depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.28,277/10 gms after touching a high of Rs.27,833/10 gms on Monday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1327.0 Prev. day -0.5 as on 29 July, 2013 WoW -0.6 MoM 10.6 YoY -18.1

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

27420.0

-0.3

0.9

5.7

-8.1

1329.8

-0.1

0.2

7.9

-17.8

$/oz

1328.4

0.5

-0.5

6.8

-17.9

Rs /10 gms

28277.0

3.2

2.6

11.4

-5.1

Silver
Source: Reuters

Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in base metals group, Spot silver prices declined around 0.7 percent yesterday. Further, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices prices. The white metal touched an intra-day day low of $19.71/oz and closed at $19.75 in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices rose around 0.9 percent on account of depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.41,146/kg after touching a high of Rs.40,895/kg on Monday.

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 19.8 42040.0 Prev day -0.7 0.9

as on 29 July, 2013 WoW -3.5 0.5 MoM 7.4 4.1 YoY -29.6 -19.9

$/oz $/ oz

2010.0 19.9

0.4 0.5

0.8 -1.9

8.0 2.9

-27.3 -29.1

Outlook
Precious metal prices are expected to trade on a higher note in todays trade, taking cues from weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global markets. However, sharp upside in prices will be capped on account of declining trend in SPDR gold holdings. In the e Indian markets, prices will trade on a higher note on the back of rise in prices in previous trade. Appreciation in the Rupee will cap sharp gains in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for July 30, 2013 Support 1319/1312 28100/27950 19.70/19.40 40800/40400 Resistance 1333/1342 28400/28600 20.0/20.25 41500/41900

Rs / kg

41146.0

0.9

-2.6

6.1

-23.6

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 30, 30 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined around 0.1 percent in the yesterdays trade taking cues from decline in US pending home sales data. Further, strength in the DX coupled with weak global markets exerted downside pressure on prices. ns of slow economic growth in China and US led Additionally, expectations to estimates of decline in demand for the fuel thereby acting as a negative factor. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day low of $103.87/bbl and closed at $104.60/oz /oz in last trading session. e August contract gained around 0.6 On the domestic bourses, MCX crude percent on account of depreciation preciation in the Rupee and crude oil prices touched a high of Rs.6,174/bbl and closed at Rs.6,251/bbl 1/bbl on Monday. API Inventories Forecast The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 2.3 million barrels for the week ending on 26th July 2013. lion barrels and distillate Gasoline stocks are expected to drop by 0.3 million inventories are expected to shoot up by 0.8 million barrels for the same week. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a higher note on the back of expectations xpectations of fall in API crude oil inventories. Further, upbeat global markets and weakness in the DX wil will support an upside in prices. Additionally, unrest in Egypt will act a as a positive factor for prices. However, sharp upside will be capped as a result of forecast for slow economic growth in US and Chinese economy. Estimates of fall in US consumer confidence data in evening session will prevent sharp upside in prices. Appreciation in the Rupee will cap sharp gains in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Aug13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for July 30, 2013 Support 103.40/102.40 03.40/102.40 6200/6140 Resistance 104.90/105.70 6290/6340

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Sep 13) ICE Brent Crude (Sep13) MCX Crude (Aug 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 109.2 104.6 Prev. day 0.5 -0.1 WoW -0.7 -2.2

as on 29 July, 2013 MoM 6.0 6.7 YoY 1.7 16.0

$/bbl

107.5

0.3

-0.6

4.5

1.2

Rs/bbl

6251.0

0.6

-1.8

6.9

25.6

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Aug 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.473 208.2 Prev. day -2.4 -1.0 WoW -6.26 -4.93

as on 29 July, 2013 MoM -2.61 -3.30 YoY 15.38 24.15

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 30, 30 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals complex traded on a mixed note in the yesterdays trade as a result of decline in US pending home sales data data. Further, mixed LME inventories scenario also exerted ed downside pressure on prices. Additionally, strength in the DX along with weak global market sentiments acted as a negative factor. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (July13) Rs /kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Last Prev. day as on 29 July, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

6875.0 410.9 1801.5 104.5 13716.0 812.0 2069.0 122.8 1852.3

0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4 -0.9 -0.4 0.7 1.4 0.2

-1.9 -2.1 -2.2 -2.8 -2.9 -3.0 0.7 0.9 -1.2

-12.4 1.7 1.7 0.8 -0.8 -1.6 1.0 0.2 0.2

-8.9 -2.2 -5.1 1.2 -15.1 -9.1 6.5 14.5 -0.3

Copper
Copper prices traded on a positive note yesterday and increased around 0.3 percent on the back of decline in LME Copper inventories around 0.4 percent which stood at 618,775 tonnes. However, sharp upside in prices was restricted as a result of strength in the DX, weak global market along with decline in US pending home sales data. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $6891/tonne and closed at $6875/tonne in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic front, prices gained 0.6 percent on the back of depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs. 410.90/kg /kg after touching a high of Rs.411.30/kg on Monday. Outlook

LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (July13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (July13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (July13)

$/tonne

Rs /kg

$/tonne

Rs /kg

$/tonne

Rs /kg

108.3

0.4

-1.5

-0.7

5.6

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 29th July 26th July Actual Change (%) Change

618,775 5,476,175 200,280 1,055,125 198,350

621,175 5,483,175 199,578 1,051,025 198,250

-2,400 -7,000 702 4,100 100

-0.4 -0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1

Source: Reuters

In todays session, we expect base metals group to trade on lower note on the back of decline in pending home sales ales data in yesterdays trade. Expectations of slow economic growth in China coupled with fall in Japans industrial production will add downside pressure. Further, forecast orecast for decline in US consumer confidence in todays trade coupled with estimates stimates that US GDP will grow at slower pace in second quarter will act as a negative factor. However, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global markets arkets will cushion sharp fall. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will add mor more downside pressure in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc July 13 MCX Lead July 13 MCX Aluminum July13 MCX Nickel July 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for July 30, 201 2013 Support 407/403 107.50/106.80 122.0/121.20 103.80/102.80 805/798 Resistance 412/416 109.0/109.80 123.50/124.50 105.50/106.50

Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

817/825

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 30, 30 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Household Spending y/y Prelim Industrial Production m/m GfK German Consumer Climate German Prelim CPI m/m Spanish Flash GDP q/q Italian 10-y Bond Auction S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence

Japan Japan Euro Euro Euro Euro US US

5:00am 5:20am 11:30am All day 12:30pm Tentative 6:30pm 7:30pm

-0.4% -3.3% -

1.2% -1.4% 6.9 0.3% -0.1% 12.4% 81.1

-1.6% 1.6% 1.9% 6.8 0.1% -0.5% 0.5% 4.55/1.5 12.1% 81.4

Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High

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