MONGOLIA MULTI-SECTORAL TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROJECT IDA CREDIT#H 4777 MN National Consultant for Fiscal risk management and

d assessment in Mongolia Component A1 Fiscal risk management (A1.2.2 Consultancy service) Terms of Reference A. BACKGROUND Mongolia has received a Credit from the International Development Association (IDA) for a MultiSectoral Technical Assistance Project (MSTAP). The project is designed for four components: (i) Enhancing Capacity for Fiscal Management; (ii) Supporting Government Efforts to Better Protect the Poor; (iii) Enhancing Capacity for Maintaining the Stability of the Financial Sector; and (iv) Project Management. The objectives are to: improve capacity for fiscal policy formulation, social protection, and the management of the financial sector. The project is supporting government efforts of building capacities in the fiscal, social, and financial sectors (for more details, please refer to the Project Appraisal Document Report No. 54353-MN /http://worldbank.org/external/projects/). In the Fiscal Stability Law (FSL) which approved in 2010 outlines fiscal management principles such as determining fiscal policies and objectives in creation of macro-economic stability and fiscal transparency. Moreover, in December 2011, the Mongolian Parliament has enacted the Budget Law (IBL) that contains significant policy and procedure reforms ensuring comprehensiveness and accuracy of the budget. Hence, in order to successfully implement the FSL and IBL, the capacity of the Ministry of Finance needs to be strengthened to identify and assess risks that affect Mongolian economic prosperity. B. OBJECTIVE OF THE ASSIGNMENT The main objective of this consultancy service is to identify fiscal risks that adversely affect the achievement of the medium term outlook and develop strategies to deal with the risks identified. The initial focus will be to propose the risk evaluation methodology and related legislative and institutional changes, which will reduce the impact and if possible prevent the formation of fiscal risks. Mongolian economy could face risks from following activities: , , , , ,

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C. SCOPE OF THE ASSIGNMENT Key responsibilities will include the following, but not limited to: 1. The first step in managing risks is fiscal risks identification and disclosure. 1.1 Itemizing contractual type risks that represent a financial obligation that Government would be required to stand behind from its source. 1.2 Propose methodology for identification of potential areas of budget 1.3 Identify the data and their sources required to implement the methodology; Develop a risk assessment methodology Prepare guidance for risk management Work closely with Financial policy and Debt management department Undertake such other tasks as reasonably requested and/or assigned by the Head of General (Unified) Budget Division of the Fiscal Policy Department (FPD) and Director General of FPD. 1. DELIVERABLES 2. CONSULTANTS QUALIFICATIONS/ SELECTION CRITERIA Education: A suitable candidate should have an undergraduate degree in relevant field: finance, or macroeconomic management, economics, economic modeling, or public policy; Experience: Incumbent should have at least 3 year relevant professional experience, with specific experience in macroeconomic forecasting, and modeling policy formulation. It would be an advantage if he/she has carried out research work in the relevant field and has demonstrated successful achievement. Language skills: Mongolian citizen with fluent written and spoken skills in both English and Mongolian; Computer literacy: Be proficient in PC based applications such as Word, Excel, E-views and data management, and have excellent web research and navigation skills. Knowledge of Matlab would be an advantage; Excellent interpersonal skills with the ability to function effectively and collaboratively in a team environment; high integrity and accountability; and Be able to work overtime if required.

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3. SUPERVISION AND REPORTING The consultant will report directly to the Director of the FPD of MoF and will work on a day-today basis with the Head of the General Budget Division of the FPD as assigned by the Director of the FPD on technical matters related to the assignment. The Head of the General Budget Division will meet regularly with the consultant to review progress with the work program and to resolve any outstanding issues.

It is anticipated that the consultant would work with a wide range of assigned MoF staff on a daily basis, as necessary and appropriate, in order to attain the objectives of the mission but would be accountable to the Director of the FPD. All information provided to the consultant will be regarded as confidential and information will not be shared with any outside individuals or organizations.

4. CONTRACT DURATION The consultant's work is expected to commence in mid of April, 2012. The contract will be for a period of 12 months with a probationary period of 3 months and may be extended thereafter based on satisfactory performance in accordance with the TOR. 5. INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS The Client will provide an office space and assign the officials to accept deliverables stated in the contract. The consultant shall bring his/her own computer.

6. COST ESTIMATE Total estimated costs US$ ... US Dollar Foreign Currency I REMUNERATION* 12 months x US $ per month TOTAL

*This amount includes 10 % personal income tax, and the Consultant is required to pay the tax.

Approved by: Reviewed by

B.Batjargal, Director General of the Fiscal Policy Department D.Gentry, IMF budget planning advisor N.Narangerel, Head of the General Budget Division S.Erdemchimeg, Coordinating Consultant for Compon

Prepared by: