Latin America wireless update

Erasmo Rojas
Director Amrica Latina y El Caribe 4G Americas

Lima, July 2013

Agenda
4G Americas Technology and Market Update HSPA/HSPA+ and LTE status Country analysis Challenges and Opportunities

4G Americas Board of Governors

www.4gamericas.org

Global Mobile Traffic: Voice & Data 2010-2018

Mobile Data Traffic will grow 12 times between 2012 and 2018
10,000 Mobile Subscriptions (Million)

9,000
8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000

LTE HSPA GSM TD-SCDMA CDMA Other

2,000
1,000 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Source: Ericsson (Nov 2012)

www.4gamericas.org

3GPP Mobile Broadband Evolution

EDGE
Evolved EDGE DL: 1.89 Mbps UL: 947 kbps

HSPA-HSPA+
Rel 8 HSPA+ DL: 42 Mbps UL: 11.5 Mbps 10/5 MHz
Rel 9 HSPA+ DL: 84 Mbps UL: 23 Mbps 10/10 MHz

Rel 10 HSPA+ DL: 168 Mbps UL: 23 Mbps 20/10 MHz

Rel 11 HSPA+ DL: 336 Mbps UL: 46 Mbps 40/10 MHz

LTE & LTE-Advanced

Rel 8 LTE DL: 300 Mbps UL: 45 Mbps 20/20 MHz Rel 9 LTE DL: 300 Mbps UL: 45 Mbps 20/20 MHz Rel 10 LTE DL: 1.2 Gbps UL: 568 Mbps 40/40 MHz Rel 11 LTE DL: >1.2 Gbps

2011

2012

2013

2014
www.4gamericas.org

2015

Source: Mobile Broadband Explosion, Rysavy Research, September 2012

Global LTE Status as of June 2013

179
commercial networks in 72 countries
Europe Rest of World 4.7 Million 465 Thousand Latin America = 250 Thousand Brazil = 105 Thousand

Rest of APAC 7 Million

Japan 16 Million Korea 22 Million

Canada 2 Million Asia Pacific 45 Million 42%
Source: 4G Americas, Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+ Estimates-May 2013

North America 59 Million 53%

USA 57Million

114 Million
subscriptions

Subscriptions

200

Fixed and Mobile Broadband Access in Latin America 2007-2012

180

Millions

160 140 120 100 80 60

40
20 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Fixed Broadband
Source: Signals Telecom Consulting, 2013

Mobile Broadband

LTE

Mobile Broadband Forecast in Latin America (HSPA-LTE)

December 2012
LTE 0% HSPA 17%

LTE 7%

iDEN, CDMA 4%

GSM 79%

GSM 31%

HSPA & HSPA+ 61%

December 2017

iDEN, CDMA 1%

December 2012 Total Subscriptions Mobile Broadband

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media WCIS+ Subscription Forecast, March 2013

December 2017 858 Million 581 Million (68%)

www.4gamericas.org

680 Million 113 Million (17%)

Top 10 Wireless Data Markets in Latin America by 2Q 2013

Average Latin America penetration: 90% voice and 24% data
% Voice Penetration
Brazil Chile

% Data

97%
117% 112% 71% 98% 86% 91% 79% 91% 95%
0 50

39% 39% 33%

270 M

Subscriptions (Millions)

Argentina Mexico
Ecuador Venezuela Dominican Rep. Colombia Peru Guatemala

17%
17% 17% 13% 10% 10% 10%
100 150

27 M 60 M 103 M 17 M 31 M 11 M 43 M 30M 16 M
200

Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Global Wireless Matrix 2Q2013

www.4gamericas.org

Typical data revenues by Q4 2012

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Data contribution to service revenues. Latin America average of 27% and 43% in North America

Voice
41% 35%

35%

30%

Data

25%

22%

21%

20%

Average ARPU of US $ 12 by Q4 2012

Sources: Informa Telecoms & Media, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Q3 2012

www.4gamericas.org

Smartphone penetration Q4 2012

Latin America Venezuela Chile Argentina Brazil Mexico Peru Colombia 14% 20% 18% 17% 16% 15% 9% 8%

USA smartphone penetration is 57% by February 2013

(comScore, Apr 2013)

Source: Bank of America / Merrill Lynch, Inside Telecom, February 2013

www.4gamericas.org

HSPA+ in Latin America & Caribbean

147 Million HSPA/HSPA+ estimated subscriptions as of 2Q 20131
Mexico Belize Costa Rica El Salvador Guatemala Honduras Nicaragua Panama

96 commercial HSPA networks in 42 countries 65 commercial HSPA+ networks in 33 countries2

Antigua & Barbuda Aruba Bahamas Barbados Bermuda British Virgin Islands Cayman Islands Dominican Republic French West Indies Jamaica Netherlands Antilles Puerto Rico St Kitts & Nevis Trinidad & Tobago Turks & Caicos
www.4gamericas.org

42 Mbps Dual Carrier

Chile Dominican Republic Paraguay Puerto Rico

Argentina Bolivia Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Paraguay Peru Uruguay

2As

of 6.13.13

Source: Public Announcements, Regulatory Bodies 1Informa Telecoms & Media, Jun 2013 Estimates

LTE

21 LTE Networks and 10 countries in Latin America & the Caribbean

700 MHz (4)
Antigua & Barbuda Digicel * Bolivia Puerto Rico Entel Claro Open Mobile

850 & 1900 MHz (1)

Puerto Rico Sprint

1800 MHz (1)

Dominican Republic Orange Dominicana

1700/2100 MHz (5)

Mexico Paraguay Puerto Rico Uruguay Movistar Telcel VOX AT&T Antel

1900 MHz (2)

Dominican Republic Paraguay Tricom Personal

2500-2690 MHz (8)

Brazil Claro Oi On* Claro
UNE
www.4gamericas.org

Sky Telecom* TIM Vivo

Chile
Data as of July 1, 2013
* Indicates TDD networks All remaining networks are FDD

Colombia

LTE in Latin America & Caribbean

Puerto Rico Mexico

Dominican Republic

2
Colombia

Antigua & Barbuda

1
Brazil

1
Bolivia

6
Paraguay

21 Networks 10 Countries

Chile

2
Uruguay

Source: Public Announcements, Regulatory Bodies 1Informa Telecoms & Media, Mar 2013 Estimates

www.4gamericas.org

948 Total Devices in the Market

LTE User Devices

Includes FDD and TDD

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Notebooks Modules Routers/ Smartphones PC Cards Cameras (2) Femtocells (29) Tablets (90) Dongles Personal (316) (132) Hotspots (76) (1) (6) (296)

Source: Global mobile Suppliers Association www.gsacom.com July 2013

LTE Devices per Band

LTE FDD (mobile)
Frequency 2600 MHz 1800 MHz 800 MHz 700 MHz 2100 MHz 700 MHz AWS 900 MHz 850 MHz Band Band 7 Band 3 Band 20 Bands 12, 17 Band 1 Band 13 Band 4 Band 8 Band 5 Devices 324 284 243 224 215 211 209 203 105 80

LTE TDD (fixed)

Frequency 2600 MHz 2300 MHz 1900 MHz 2600 MHz Band Band 38 Band 40 Band 39 Band 41 Devices 153 137 45 37

800/1800/2600 Tri-band

Source: Global mobile Suppliers Association www.gsacom.com July 2013

LTE Growth Forecast

In Latin America & Caribbean

55
Million

30

Subscriptions
16

Million Million

2
Million

7
Million

Dec 13

Dec 14

Dec 15

Dec 16

Dec 17
www.4gamericas.org

Source: Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+ Forecast, February 2013

Music download times with HSPA and LTE

A song = approx. 5 minutes
Seconds Minutes

Album = approx. 74 minutes

25 20 15 10
25 minutes

10 8 6

10 seconds

4
2 0
0.38 seconds

5 0

54 seconds

HSPA

LTE

HSPA

LTE

Assumed peak speeds: HSPA = 14 Mbps, LTE = 100 Mbps

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan

www.4gamericas.org

Video download times with HSPA and LTE

DVD movie = approx. 2 hours
Minutes

HD movie = approx. 1 hour

Minutos

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

600
2 hours

500 400 300

8 hours

200
100
4.8 minutes

17 minutes

HSPA

LTE

HSPA

LTE

Assumed peak speeds: HSPA = 14 Mbps, LTE = 100 Mbps

Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Japan www.4gamericas.org

Aplicaciones tpicas de LTE

Empresas Gobierno
Sistemas de seguridad, vigilancia Telemedicina Educacin a distancia Tele-trabajo Medios de comunicacin, TV, Publicidad

Consumidor
Streaming de videos y/o audio Transmisin de imgenes y grandes archivos Juegos interactivos

Per
AWS spectrum (2 swaths of 20+20 MHz) should be auctioned July 2013 30 million mobile subscriptions 224 MHz of spectrum available 91% voice and 10% data penetration 73% prepaid penetration ARPU: US $ 9 Data contribution to ARPU: 20% Smartphone penetration: 9%

Mobile Indicators

Nextel Peru has been purchased by Entel Chile

Challenges
Conduct AWS auction 2H 2013 Plan 700 MHz auction for 2014

Spectrum and Mobile Broadband Adoption

by 2Q 2013

24% Average MBB penetration in Latin America Available market spectrum MBB Penetration

Brazil
Mexico Ecuador Colombia Peru Chile
0

503 MHz
243 MHz 180 MHz 412.5 MHz 224 MHz 395 MHz
100 200 300

39%
17% 17% 10% 10% 39%
400 500 600

Source: Regulatory announcements, Informa Telecoms & Media, WCIS+, Junel 2013

www.4gamericas.org

Issues and Opportunities in Latin America & Caribbean

Increasingly restrictive wireless regulations in the region Government initiatives and involvement in creating national broadband plans

Average data contribution (VAS) to ARPU: 27% Vs. 43% in North America
24% Mobile Broadband penetration : 147 million subscriptions Mobile Broadband penetration increasing and providing Internet access for the masses
www.4gamericas.org

Gracias!

Erasmo Rojas
Director Amrica Latina y El Caribe 4G Americas Erasmo.rojas@4gamericas.org