DAILY IFOREX REPORT

01ST AUG 2013

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO

+91 7316642300

HEADLINES
US Dollar Breaks Higher Ahead Of Fed Policy Announcement Steady Unemployment And Inflation Fails To Impress Euro Traders

US Dollar Picks Up Ahead of GDP, Fed; GBP/USD Falls to Key Support

TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE 1.3300 TGT 1.3320/1.3340 SL 1.3270

The US Dollar is a top performer so far this week, but the next few days are guaranteed to bring about volatility that could see the worlds reserve currency fall from near-first to last. Today, there are numerous important US data and events on the calendar, with two stalwarts in their own right: the 2Q13 GDP report; and the Federal Reserves July policy announcement.

SELL USDJPY BELOW 97.40 TGT 97.20/97.00 SL 97.70

Ahead of the Fed, the US Dollar may be set up for further weakness as the 2Q13 GDP report is expected to come in soft at +1.0% from +1.8% annualized. The report, however, isnt an accurate indicator of the strides made in recent months in consumption trends, the housing sector, and the labor market; there was a material impact of the governments austerity measures on overall growth.

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5190 TGT 1.5170/1.5150 SL 1.5220

However, with the major chunk of tax hikes and spending cuts in the rearview mirror, these fiscal headwinds should fade, paving the way for a stronger 2H13 a trend that the Fed will note later today. Fed policymakers are debating when to taper QE3, but also want to differentiate tapering from tightening higher US yields have proven to be negative for the fragile housing market recovery.

The taper talk has been mostly positive for the US Dollar as it has stoked higher US Treasury yields, but currencies like the Euro and the Japanese Yen have been rather resilient in recent weeks; these two currencies should benefit should the Fed strike a dovish tone. On the other hand, with the Bank of England meeting tomorrow, a hawkish-tilted Fed could see the GBPUSD be a leader to the downside.

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO

+91 7316642300

 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS EURUSD LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0030 (BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 45(BULLISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS USDJPY LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.10(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>31(BEARISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0002(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>27(BEARISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI =>67(BULLISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS USD INDEX LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARIISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>.0138(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI =>54(BEARISH SIGNAL)

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date
Sun Jul 28

Time

Currency

Event

Importance

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Notes

05:55

CNY Leading Index (JUN) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JUL) GBP Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JUL) JPY Large Retailers' Sales (JUN) JPY Retail Trade s.a. (MoM) (JUN) JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (JUN) JPY BoJ Governor Kuroda Speaks at Research Insitute of Japan GBP Net Consumer Credit (JUN) GBP Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (JUN) GBP Mortgage Approvals (JUN) GBP M4 Money Supply (MoM) (JUN) GBP M4 Money Supply (YoY) (JUN) GBP M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (JUN) GBP CBI Reported Sales (JUL) USD Pending Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (JUN) USD Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity (JUL) USD EIA Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update NZD Building Permits (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

99.55

99.72

23:01

Low

0.3%

0.4%

23:01

Medium

1.3%

0.8%

23:50

Medium

3.5%

3.6%

-0.4%

23:50

Low

-0.2%

0.8%

1.5%

23:50

Medium

1.6%

2.1%

0.8%

Mon Jul 29

03:30

High

08:30

Medium

0.5B

0.7B

0.8B

08:30

Low

1.0B

0.7B

0.5B

08:30

Medium

57.7K

59.7K

58.1K

08:30

Low

0.1%

0.2%

0.0%

08:30

Low

1.5%

-0.1%

08:30

Low

4.7%

4.4%

4.4%

10:00

Low

17

10

14:00

Low

-1.0%

6.7%

14:00

Medium

11.5%

12.5%

14:30

Low

7.3

6.5

21:00

Low

22:45

Low

1.3%

23:30

JPY Household Spending (YoY) (JUN) JPY Jobless Rate (JUN) JPY Job-To-Applicant Ratio (JUN) JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (JUN P) JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUN P) AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (JUN) AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (JUN) JPY Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUN) JPY Small Business Confidence (JUL) EUR German GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (AUG) EUR Spanish GDP (QoQ) (2Q A) EUR Spanish GDP (YoY) (2Q A) GBP Lloyds Business Barometer (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Economic Confidence (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Business Climate Indicator (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Confidence (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (JUL F) EUR Euro-Zone Services Confidence (JUL) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (JUL P) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (JUL P) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (JUL P) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (JUL P) CAD Industrial Product Price (MoM) (JUN) CAD Raw Materials Price Index (MoM) (JUN)

Medium

1.3%

-1.6%

23:30

Medium

4.0%

4.1%

23:30

Low

0.91

0.90

23:50

Low

-1.5%

1.9%

23:50

Medium

-2.9%

-1.1%

Tue Jul 30

01:30

Low

2.0%

-1.1%

01:30

Medium

0.0%

-3.2%

04:00

Low

-6.2%

05:00

Medium

49.6

06:00

Medium

6.9

6.8

07:00
LIVE

Low

-0.1%

-0.5%

07:00
LIVE

Medium

-1.8%

-2.0%

08:30

Low

36

09:00

Low

92.5

91.3

09:00

Low

-0.54

-0.68

09:00

Low

-10.2

-11.2

09:00

Medium

-17.4

-17.4

09:00

Low

-8.9

-9.5

12:00

Medium

0.3%

0.1%

12:00

High

1.7%

1.8%

12:00

Medium

0.3%

0.1%

12:00

High

1.8%

1.9%

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.0%

12:30

Low

0.3%

0.2%

13:00

USD S&P/CS 20 City s.a. (MoM) (MAY) USD S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 (YoY) (MAY) USD S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (MAY) USD Consumer Confidence (JUL) GBP BRC Shop Price Index (YoY) (JUL) GBP GfK Consumer Confidence Survey (JUL) JPY Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (JUL) JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUN) USD Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting NZD ANZ Business Confidence (JUL) NZD ANZ Activity Outlook (JUL) JPY Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (JUN) AUD Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUN) AUD Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUN) NZD Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUN) JPY Housing Starts (YoY) (JUN) JPY Annualized Housing Starts (JUN) JPY Construction Orders (YoY) (JUN) EUR German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUN) EUR German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUN) CHF UBS Consumption Indicator (JUN) CHF KOF Swiss Leading Indicator (JUL) EUR German Unemployment Change (JUL) EUR German Unemployment Rate s.a. (JUL)

Low

1.5%

1.7%

13:00

Low

12.4%

12.1%

13:00

Low

152.37

14:00

High

81.0

81.4

23:01

Low

-0.2%

23:05

Medium

-19

-21

23:15

Medium

52.3

23:50

Low

2.06%

Wed Jul 31

High

01:00

Low

50.1

01:00

Low

45

01:30

Low

0.1%

0.0%

01:30

Low

0.3%

0.3%

01:30

Medium

2.9%

3.0%

03:00

Low

6.2%

05:00

Medium

16.0%

14.5%

05:00

Medium

0.982M

1.027M

05:00

Low

26.0%

06:00

Low

0.2%

0.8%

06:00

Medium

0.5%

0.4%

06:00

Medium

1.46

07:00

Medium

1.22

1.16

07:55

High

0K

-12K

07:55

High

6.8%

6.8%

08:00

EUR Italian Unemployment Rate (JUN P) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (JUL A) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (JUN) USD MBA Mortgage Applications (JUL 26) USD ADP Employment Change (JUL) USD Bureau of Economic Analysis Release Annual Revisions of GDP CAD Gross Domestic Product (MoM) (MAY) CAD Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (MAY) USD Employment Cost Index (2Q) USD Gross Domestic Product (Annualized) (2Q A) USD Personal Consumption (2Q A) USD Gross Domestic Product Price Index (2Q A) USD Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (QoQ) (2Q A) USD NAPM-Milwaukee (JUL) USD Chicago Purchasing Manager (JUL) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (JUL 26) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (JUL 26) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (JUL 26) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (JUL 26) USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision (JUL 31) AUD AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUL) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (JUL 26) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (JUL 26)

Medium

12.3%

12.2%

09:00

High

1.2%

1.2%

09:00

Medium

1.6%

1.6%

09:00

Medium

12.2%

12.1%

11:00

Low

-1.2%

12:15

Medium

180K

188K

12:30

Medium

12:30

Medium

0.3%

0.1%

12:30

High

1.6%

1.4%

12:30

Low

0.4%

0.3%

12:30
LIVE

High

1.0%

1.8%

12:30

Medium

1.6%

2.6%

12:30

High

1.0%

1.2%

12:30

Medium

1.1%

1.3%

13:00

Low

52.0

51.6

13:45

Medium

54.0

51.6

14:30

Low

-2825K

14:30

Low

-2060K

14:30

Low

-1389K

14:30

Low

-1227K

18:00

High

0.25%

0.25%

23:30

Medium

49.6

23:50

Medium

549.3B

23:50

Medium

-56.7B

23:50

JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (JUL 26) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (JUL 26) AUD RPData/Rismark House Px (MoM) (JUL) JPY Official Reserve Assets (JUL) CNY Manufacturing PMI (JUL) AUD HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (JUN) AUD Import Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Export Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) CNY HSBC/Markit Manufacturing PMI (JUL) JPY Vehicle Sales (YoY) (JUL) AUD Commodity Index (JUL) AUD RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JUL) EUR Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL) EUR French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL F) EUR German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL F) EUR Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL F) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUL) GBP Bank of England Rate Decision (AUG 1) GBP BOE Asset Purchase Target (AUG) USD Challenger Job Cuts (YoY) (JUL) USD RBC Consumer Outlook Index (AUG) EUR European Central Bank Rate Decision (AUG 1) EUR ECB Deposit Facility Rate (AUG 1)

Low

790.3B

23:50

Low

349.8B

Thu Aug 1

00:00

Low

1.9%

Low

$1238.7B

01:00

High

49.8

50.1

01:00

Medium

1.6%

01:30

Low

2.0%

0.0%

01:30

Low

0.3%

2.8%

01:45

Medium

47.7

48.2

05:00

Low

-15.8%

06:30

Low

88.9

06:30

Low

-10.5%

07:45

Low

49.7

49.1

07:50

Low

49.8

49.8

07:55

Medium

50.3

50.3

08:00

Medium

50.1

50.1

08:30

Medium

52.8

52.5

11:00
LIVE

High

0.50%

0.50%

11:00
LIVE

High

375B

375B

11:30

Low

4.8%

11:30

Low

50.7

11:45
LIVE

High

0.50%

0.50%

11:45
LIVE

Medium

0.00%

0.00%

12:30

USD Initial Jobless Claims (JUL 27) USD Continuing Claims (JUL 20) USD Markit US PMI Final (JUL) USD Construction Spending (MoM) (JUN) USD ISM Manufacturing (JUL) USD ISM Prices Paid (JUL) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (JUL 26) USD Total Vehicle Sales (JUL) USD Domestic Vehicle Sales (JUL) JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (JUL) JPY Monetary Base End of period (JUL) GBP Halifax Plc House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL) GBP Halifax House Price (3MoY) (JUL) AUD Producer Price Index (QoQ) (2Q) AUD Producer Price Index (YoY) (2Q) GBP Nationwide House Prices s.a. (MoM) (JUL) GBP Nationwide House Prices n.s.a. (YoY) (JUL) CHF SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (JUL) GBP Purchasing Manager Index Construction (JUL) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (JUN) EUR Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (JUN) USD Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (JUL) USD Change in Private Payrolls (JUL) USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls (JUL)

Medium

344K

343K

12:30

Low

3000K

2997K

12:58

Medium

53.2

14:00

Medium

0.4%

0.5%

14:00

High

52.0

50.9

14:00

Medium

54.0

52.5

14:30

Low

41

21:00

Low

15.80M

15.89M

21:00

Low

12.40M

12.43M

23:50

Medium

36.00%

23:50

Medium

173.1T

Fri Aug 2

Low

0.6%

Low

3.7%

01:30

Low

0.3%

01:30

Medium

1.6%

06:00

Low

0.4%

0.3%

06:00

Medium

3.1%

1.9%

07:30

Medium

52.5

51.9

08:30

Medium

51.5

51

09:00

Low

0.0%

-0.3%

09:00

Medium

0.3%

-0.1%

12:30
LIVE

High

185K

195K

12:30

Medium

187K

202K

12:30

Low

0K

-6K

12:30
LIVE

USD Unemployment Rate (JUL) USD Two-Month Payroll Net Revision (JUL) USD Change in Household Employment (JUL) USD Underemployment Rate (JUL) USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (JUL) USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (JUL) USD Average Weekly Hours All Employees (JUL) USD Personal Income (JUN) USD Personal Spending (JUN) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (MoM) (JUN) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator (YoY) (JUN) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (MoM) (JUN) USD Personal Consumption Expenditure Core (YoY) (JUN) USD Personal Income and Spending Annual Revisions USD ISM New York (JUL) USD Factory Orders (JUN) USD Fed's Bullard Speaks on U.S. Economy in Boston CNY Nonmanufacturing PMI (JUL)

High

7.5%

7.6%

12:30

Medium

12:30

Medium

160

12:30

Medium

14.3%

12:30

Low

0.2%

0.4%

12:30

Medium

2.2%

2.2%

12:30

Low

34.5

34.5

12:30

Medium

0.4%

0.5%

12:30

Medium

0.5%

0.3%

12:30

Low

0.4%

0.1%

12:30

Low

1.3%

1.0%

12:30

Low

0.1%

0.1%

12:30

Medium

1.1%

1.1%

12:30

Low

13:45

Low

47

14:00

Medium

2.3%

2.1%

16:15

Low

Sat Aug 3

01:00

Medium

53.9

Disclaimer
The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300