Commerce and War

Trade and War

• In addition to democracy,
y,
commerce may also promote
peace.
• Richard
Ri h d Cobden,
C bd 1859
1859: “Th
“The people
l
of the two nations [France and
England] must be brought into
mutual dependence by the supply
of each other's wants. There is no
other
th way off counteracting
t ti the
th
antagonism of language and race.”
 Trade and War
• States can g gain resources and markets throughg
conquest or trade.
• If trade is free and open, states can satisfy their
resource needs without warwar.
• Commerce and interdependence increase the
costs of war because of foregone economic
b
benefits.
fit
• Trade and democracy: cutting off trade hurts the
peop e
people.
• Realist critique: interdependence creates
vulnerability.
 Evidence
• Global trade was very high before WWI.
• Trade was very low before WWII.
• Statistical work shows some effect.
 Copeland
• Copeland and “trade
trade expectations.
expectations ”
– Not the current level of trade, but expectations
of future trade or of cutting off trade
trade.
N l
Nuclear W
Weapons
 Nuclear Technology
• Nuclear weapons work through fission or
fusion of radioactive materials (Uranium or
Plutonium).)
• Fission weapons (splitting atoms) were the
yp developed.
first type p
– Atomic Bomb
• Fusion weapons
p ((combining
g atoms)) are
much more advanced and powerful.
– Hydrogen bomb
 Nuclear Technology
• Fission p
produces a chargeg
equivalent to 500,000 TONS
of TNT.
• Fusion
F i produces
d a charge
h
equivalent to 50,000,000
TONS of TNT.
TNT
• Radiation effects last decades.
ec o og ca obstac
• Technological obstacles:
es
– high-grade radioactive materials
do not occur naturally.
– Delivery
D li systems
t mustt nott
damage explosive material
 Weapons
p Delivery
y Systems
y
• Earliest weapons were simply gravity bombs
dropped from airplanes
airplanes.
• Ballistic missiles reduce risk of interception.
• Inter
Inter-continental
continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs).
– “Hardened” missile silos.
– Mobile missile launchers.
• Submarine-launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBM).
p independent
• Multiple p re-entryy vehicle ((MIRV).
)
 History of Nuclear Weaponry
• 1934: Italian physicist Enrico Fermi learns how
to produce nuclear fission.
– Race to develop weaponized nuclear reactions.
• 1942: US ‘Manhattan Project’ led by Robert
Oppenheimer develops fission weapons.
• 1945: ‘Little Boy’ and ‘Fat Man’ dropped on
Hiroshima and Nagasaki. WWII ends.
– Over 100,000 dead.
• 1949: USSR tests its first nuclear weapon.
• 1952: US develops first fusion bomb (H-Bomb).
– 450 times more powerful than Nagasaki bomb.
• 1952: UK develops its own nuclear weapon.
• 1960: France develops nuclear weapon.
• 1964: China develops nuclear weapon.
• 1968 US
1968: US, USSR
USSR, ChiChina, FFrance, UK sign
i
nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT).
– 189 countries now party to the treaty
treaty.
• Yet, others have developed nuclear weapons:
– Israel, Pakistan, India, North Korea, ((South Africa).
)
• Iran may be pursuing nuclear weapons
capabilities, but claims program is peaceful.
 Cold War Arms Race
• During Cold War, US and
USSR were developing
more and ‘better’
weapons.
• Had enough weapons to
d t
destroy th E
the Earth,
th severall
times over.
• Yet,
Yet arms race became
extremely costly.
• S.A.L.T.
S A L T Talks.
Talks
 Arms Limitation
• US-Russia Agreements:
g
– SALT I & II with USSR/Russia.
– Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (1991)
– Anti-Ballistic
A ti B lli ti Mi
Missile
il TTreaty
t (1972
(1972-2002)
2002)
• Agreements on testing
– Partial Test-Ban
Test Ban Treaty (1963)
– Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (1996)
• Proliferation agreements
– Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (1968)
• Monitoring Agency
– International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA)
 Mutually
y Assured Destruction
• MAD doctrine asserts that nuclear war would be
rationally impossible since both countries would be
destroyed.
destroyed
• Perhaps nuclear weapons preserved peace during Cold
War?
• MAD depends on:
– second-strike capability
– Inability to defend against nuclear attack
– Protection against ‘accidental’ launch
– ‘Rational’ enemyy
 MAD
M.A.D.
• Hardened ICBM silos and SLBMs reduced chance
that weapons would be destroyed in a first strike.
• Anti-ballistic missile systems.
– Defensive? Yet Yet, undermines MAD MAD.
• 1972: ABM treaty restricts development of anti-
ballistic missile technology.
• 2002:
2002 US withdraws
ithd ffrom ttreaty,
t claiming
l i i th
threatt ffrom
‘rogue’ nations. Current issues with Russia.
• However, ABM technology still not very effective.
– MIRVs and decoys difficult to deal with.
– Fears of a new arms race (Death Star?)
 Threat of Proliferation: Former USSR
• Former Soviet republics had nukes
upon independence.
independence
– Concern about weakness in the
states.
– Republics
R bli agree tto give
i up
nuclear weapons, return them to
Russia.
• Alexander Lebed, former secretary
of Russian Security Council,
claimed in 1997 interview that about
100 weapons are unaccounted for.
– Controlled radioactive
substances also ‘missing
missing.’
Proliferation: Pakistan and India
• Pakistan and India did not sign
g
the NPT.
• Countries have a dispute over
status off Kashmir.
K h i
• In 1998, both countries test
nuclear weapons
weapons.
– Short-lived international sanctions.
• Concerns about Pakistan’s
Pakistan s
political stability.
• Abdul Qadeer Khan and black-
market activities.
 Proliferation: N
N. Korea
• N. Korea signed
g NPT in 1985. Had
a civilian nuclear energy program.
• Detection of weapons programs in
1992.
1992
• After talks, N. Korea agrees to
suspend program in exchange for
‘ f ’ reactors
‘safe’ t (1994)
(1994).
• However, in 2003 N. Korea
withdraws
t d a s from o NPT a and
d tests a
nuke in 2006.
• Current efforts to restrain N. Korea.
– Rewarding
R di b bad
dbbehavior?
h i ?
 Proliferation: Iran
• Signed the NPT in 1968.
• Iran creates nuclear energy plants in early
1990s.
• Kept existence of plants secret until 2002.
• US, others, concerned about development of
nuclear weapons capabilities.
• Iran insists that program is for energy only.
• UN called on Iran to suspend uranium
enrichment until program could be verified.
– Sanctions imposed in December
December, current efforts to
stiffen sanctions.
 Conflict With Iran
• FRANCE: “No No nuclear weapons for Iran
Iran,
and an arsenal of sanctions to convince
them Negotiations,
them. Negotiations discussions,
discussions
firmness.”
• USA: “The
The pursuit by the Iranian regime of
nuclear weapons represents a direct threat
to the entire international community
community,
including to the United States and to the
Persian Gulf region
region.”
 Conflict With Iran
• IRAN: “we
we are a member of the International
Atomic Energy Agency... The bylaw of the
agency explicitly states that all member states
have the right to the peaceful nuclear fuel
technology… Nuclear energy is our right. We
wantt our right.
i ht AAnd
d we d
don't't wantt anything
thi
beyond the law, and nothing less than
international law
law. We are a peaceful
peaceful, loving
nation. We love all nations.”
Proliferation: Nuclear Terrorism
• Concern that groups not deterred by MAD
could obtain a nuclear weapon.
– If a terrorist attacks
attacks, where do you retaliate?
• ‘Dirty-bomb’ would release radioactive
material.
material
• Rouge states may provide technology.
• Or insecure facilities could be undermined
by terror groups.