Commodity July 17

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Commodity Outlook
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PRECIOUS METALS
PRECIOUS METALS MARKET WATCH Precious Metals MCX Gold Rs. COMEX Gold $ MCX Silver Rs. COMEX Silver $ Contract AUG2 AUG2 SEP2 SEP2 Open 29260 1588.6 52799 27.27 High 29275 1596 52799 27.49 Low 29242 1588.3 52725 27.245 Close 29268 1595.3 52767 27.455 Change -9 3.7 -22 0.134 % Chg -0.03 0.23 -0.04 0.01
MARKET ROUNDUP
Precious metals prices edged up in quiet trading yesterday as weak U.S. retail sales cut into the dollar's gains ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony.
IN FOCUS
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund, stood at 1266.11 tonnes by July 16, down by 3.62 tonnes from the previous business day.
LONDON FIXING A.M. FIXING Gold Silver Fix AM US $ INDEX Close US $ INDEX 78.424 ETF HOLDINGS as on previous close ETF SPDR Holding iShares Holding in tonnes 1266.11 9696.71 FOREX MARKET WATCH Currency USD/INR USD/JPY EUR/USD Open 55.05 79.28 1.2258 High 55.05 79.34 1.2292 Low 54.9 78.7 1.2176 Close 55.06 79.31 1.22 Change -0.113 -0.44 0.0074 % Chg -0.21 -0.55 0.61 Change -3.62 % Change 0.415 1584 27.05 P.M. FIXING 1589.75
Holdings in the world's largest silver backed exchange-traded fund iShares Silver Trust stood at 9696.71 tonnes by July 16, unchanged from the previous business day. Gold experts have further cut back price forecasts for the metal this year after a sluggish first half, a quarterly Reuters poll showed on Monday, while gains in the dollar and a dearth of physical demand are likely to clip any attempted return to last September's record high for the rest of the year. Workers rescued after being trapped underground in a Waihi gold mine are in good health and happy, the general manager of the mine says. Rescue teams freed all 28 miners, some of whom were trapped for seven hours, after a fire broke out at 5am in a truck engine at Newmont Waihi Gold's Trio underground mine.
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
Precious metals prices are trading higher today ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Congressional testimony which is expected to provide clues on whether the central bank will launch more monetary stimulus. Gold looks good for the day.
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Commodity Outlook |
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Commodity Outlook
BASE METALS
BASE METALS MARKET WATCH Base Metals MCX Copper Rs. LME Copper $ MCX Zinc Rs. LME Zinc $ MCX Nickel Rs. LME Nickel $ MCX Lead Rs. LME Lead $ MCX Aluminium LME Aluminium Contract AUG2 3M JUL2 3M JUL2 3M JUL2 3M JUL2 3M Open 425.7 7675 103.3 1877 895.8 16225 103.6 1885 103.85 1902 High 426.3 7710 104 1888 896.7 16275 104.5 1890 104.6 1916 Low 424 7674.5 102.9 1870 889.8 16155 103.3 1880 103.6 1892 Close 425.25 7700 103.8 1874 894.2 16155 104.3 1880 104.5 1910 INDICES Index Baltic Dry Index CRB Index DJ Commodity Index Close 1102 Change -8 LME WAREHOUSE STOCK Metals Copper Zinc Nickel Lead Alum Prev. 251675 976775 105762 344575 4803475 Net -50 11375 1368 -1600 -3625 Total 251625 988150 107130 342975 4799850 Metals Copper Zinc Nickel Lead Alum LME WARRANTS L/W* 199650 797400 98124 297475 3021525 C/W* 51975 190750 9006 45500 1778325 Change -600 -4250 -150 -1100 -9450 Change -0.8 145 0.35 31 -3 380 0.45 24 0.25 28 % Chg -0.19 1.92 0.34 1.68 -0.33 2.41 0.43 1.29 0.24 1.49
MARKET ROUNDUP
Industrial metals price edged lower yesterday as a weak euro and worries over the euro zone debt crisis weighed, and as investors grew concerned over whether a presentation by the U.S. Federal Reserve chairman this week would yield any clues on monetary easing.
IN FOCUS
Copper junior Rambler Metals on Monday said it had successfully made the transition from producing an initial run of gold, to producing copper in concentrate, and had sold the first lot of 600 t from its Ming mine. National Aluminium Company (Nalco) has joined the fray along with a clutch of Japanese firms to operate a 2.25 lakhtonne smelter unit in Indonesia, said sources close to the development. Dia Bras achieved record-breaking production in the second quarter of 2012. The Company reached a total of 323,396 tonnes of ore processed (compared to 37,408 in 2011) of zinc from all operations, representing a 765% increase year-overyear. These substantial increases in production have resulted in record production figures in the second quarter and the first half of 2012. Anticipating possible untoward incidents anytime soon at the mothballed nickel refinery located in Nonoc Island off Surigao City, health authorities here are recommending the destruction of the old processing plant. Australian-based Mining giant BHP Billiton - the world's largest diversified miner - is considering a withdrawal from aluminum and nickel operations as part of a general retreat from non-profitable side projects by key mining players.
SHANGHAI MARKET WATCH Metals Aluminim Copper Zinc Close 15660 56100 14685 Change 70 380 80 % Chg 0.45 0.68 0.55
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
Industrial metals prices are trading higher on international bourses today. In the evening session we have the industrial production data to be released by the US. Any positive data reported is likely to support prices of industrial metals. Nickel in particular looks good for the day.
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Commodity Outlook
ENERGY
ENERGY MARKET WATCH Energy MCX Crude NYM Crude MCX Natgas NYM Natgas Contract JUL2 AUG2 JUL2 AUG2 INDICES Index Clean Tanker Index Dirty Tanker Index Close 556 626 Change 0 -3 Open 4787 87.13 158.3 2.875 High 4828 88.48 161.4 2.915 Low 4760 86.41 153.3 2.781 Close 4820 88.43 154.1 2.801 Change 29 2.35 -4.7 -0.073 % Chg 0.61 2.73 -2.96 -2.54
MARKET ROUNDUP
Crude-oil prices were mixed yesterday, holding at levels reached in a rally late last week, as market participants await U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's testimony to Congress Tuesday.
IN FOCUS
EXCHANGE VOLUME on previous close Exchange MCX NCDEX Volume (in crores) 44385.43 9030.23 Iranian Industry, Mine and Trade Minister Mehdi Qazanfari Monday confirmed earlier reports that the government has decided to sell crude through the private sector. ENERGY INDICATORS Date 18Jul 18Jul 18Jul 18Jul 18Jul 18Jul Time 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm 8.00pm Energy Data Crude Stock Gasoline Stock Distillate Stock Refinery Utilisation Stocks at Cushing Oklahama Natural Gas Inventory Country U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. U.S. Prior -4.696 2.752 3.112 0.7 -0.859 33 Consensus -0.500 1.133 1.067 Actual A new oil layer with reserves of two million barrels has been discovered in Iran's territorial waters in the Caspian Sea, the country's state TV reported. Crude oil tanker earnings on the major Middle East route slid to their lowest levels in nine months on Monday as a glut of vessels and slowing demand battered rates.
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK
Crude oil prices are trading firm on NYMEX today. A positive industrial production data if reported by the US is likely to limit the downside in crude oil prices.
OPEC's petroleum exports jumped in value by 40 percent in 2011 year-on-year and the producers' GDP climbed 18 percent, according to their latest report, before a further increase in supplies this year that could bolster income further.
India's biggest buyer of Iranian oil, MRPL, has bought Azeri, Saudi and Emirati crude to replace imports from Iran in July and it may halt purchases from Tehran altogether as sanctions make shipments more difficult, industry sources said on Monday.
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Commodity Outlook |
Commodity Outlook
RESEARCH TEAM Name Kunal Shah Devidas Rajadhikary Vikash Bairoliya Harshal Mehta Sunit Mehta Somya Dixit Ravi Dsouza Ankita Parekh Designation Research Head - Commodities Technical Analyst Research Analyst (Precious Metals & Currencies) Technical Analyst Research Analyst (Base Metals) Research Associate Research Associate Research Analyst E-mail kunal.shah@nirmalbang.com devidas.rajadhikary@nirmalbang.com vikash.bairoliya@nirmalbang.com harshal.mehta@nirmalbang.com sunit.mehta@nirmalbang.com somya.dixit@nirmalbang.com ravi.dsouza@nirmalbang.com ankita.parekh@nirmalbang.com
Disclaimer: This Document has been prepared by N.B. Commodity Research (A Division of Nirmal Bang Commodities Pvt Ltd).The information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on N.B. Commodities Research assessment and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents N.B. Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general information only. N.B. Commodities Research, its directors, officers or employees shall not in any way be responsible for the contents stated herein. N.B. Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities that may arise from information, errors or omissions in this connection. This document is not to be considered as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any securities. N.B. Commodities Research, its affiliates and their employees may from time to time hold positions in securities referred to herein. N.B. Commodities Research or its affiliates may from time to time solicit from or perform investment banking or other services for any company mentioned in this document.
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Commodity July 17

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