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OUTLINE

1. The logic of hypothesis testing 2. Uncertainty and errors in hypothesis testing 3. Trying out a hypothesis test 4. Directional (One-tailed) hypothesis tests 5. Measuring effect size

TYPE MO SIYA, PERO TYPE KA BA NIYA?

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing, Day1

Psych 110 Day 11 & 12

WHAT IS A HYPOTHESIS TEST?

LOGIC BEHIND HYPOTHESIS TESTING

It is a statistical method that uses sample data to evaluate a hypothesis about a population. Ex: Does a certain brand of memory enhancer really improve ones memory?

1. State a hypothesis about a population. 2. Use the hypothesis to predict the characteristics of the sample. 3. Obtain a random sample from the population. 4. Compare the obtained sample data with the prediction that was made from the hypothesis.
If sample M is consistent w/ prediction, hypothesis is reasonable. If theres big discrepancy between data and prediction, hypothesis is wrong.

THE SAMPLE IN THE RESEARCH STUDY THE UNKNOWN POPULATION

The basic experimental situation for hypothesis testing. It is assumed that the parameter is known for the population before treatment. The purpose of the experiment is to determine whether or not the treatment has an effect on the population mean.

From the point of view of the hypothesis test, the entire population receives the treatment and then a sample is selected from the treated population. In the actual research study, a sample is selected from the original population and the treatment is administered to the sample. From either perspective, the result is a treated sample that represents the treated population.

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SAMPLE PROBLEM SAMPLE PROBLEM

Researchers have noted a decline in cognitive functioning as people age. However, the results from other research suggest that the antioxidants in foods such as blueberries can reduce and even reverse these age-related declines, at least in laboratory rats. One might thus theorize that the same antioxidants might also benefit elderly humans. Suppose we are interested in testing this theory.

We decide to use a neuropsychological test to measure cognitive function. It is known that the distribution of scores on this test is approximately normal and, for adults older than 65, the average score is = 80 with an SD of = 20. We then obtain a sample of n = 25 adults who are older than 65, and give each participant a daily dose of blueberry supplement that is very high in antioxidants. After taking the supplement for 6 mos, the participants will be given the neuropsychological test to measure their level of cognitive function.

STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING SAMPLE PROBLEM

STEP 1: STATE THE HYPOTHESIS Null hypothesis (H0) states that in the general population there is no change, no difference, or no relationship. In an experiment, H0 predicts that the IV (treatment) has no effect on the DV for the population.

If the mean score for the sample is noticeably different from the mean for the general population of elderly adults, the researcher can conclude that the supplement does appear to have an effect on cognitive function. But if the sample mean is around 80 (the same as the general population mean), the researcher must conclude that the supplement does not appear to have any effect.

Alternative hypothesis (H1) states that there is a change, a difference, or a relationship for the general population. In an experiment, H1 predicts that the IV (treatment) does have an effect on the DV.

STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

STEP 2: SET THE CRITERIA FOR A DECISION

STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

Use H0 to predict the kind of sample mean that ought to be obtained. Determine exactly what sample means are consistent with H0 and what sample means are at odds with H0.

The set of potential samples is divided into those that are likely to be obtained and those that are very unlikely to be obtained if the null hypothesis is true.

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STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

STEP 2: SET THE CRITERIA FOR A DECISION A. Set the alpha level ()
Alpha level (level of significance) is a probability value that is used to define the very unlikely sample outcomes if H0 is true. We commonly use = .05 (5%), = .01 (1%), = .001 (.1%)

STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

The critical region (very unlikely outcomes) for = .05.

B. Determine the boundaries for the critical region

Critical region composed of extreme sample values that are very unlikely to be obtained if H0 is true. Boundaries for critical region determined by level. If sample data fall in the critical region, H0 is rejected.

STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

STEP 3: COLLECT DATA AND COMPUTE SAMPLE STATISTIC

Alpha level ( ) .05 .01 .001

Proportion in each tail .0250 .0050 .0005

Boundaries for critical region +/- 1.96 +/-2.58 +/- 3.30

Get the sample mean (M) Compute the z-score; z =

Boundaries for the critical region as determined by alpha level.

The z-score describes exactly where the sample mean is located relative to the hypothesized population mean from H0.

STEPS IN HYPOTHESIS TESTING

STEP 4: MAKE A DECISION

REJECTING THE NULL HYPOTHESIS VERSUS

PROVING THE ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESIS

Use the z-score value obtained in Step3 to make a decision about the H0 according to the criteria established in Step2. Either:
Reject the H0 when the sample data fall in the critical region. Fail to reject (i.e., retain) the H0 when the sample data is NOT in the critical region.

Why pay so much attention to the null hypothesis? Because it is much easier to demonstrate that a universal (population) hypothesis is false than to demonstrate that it is true. Ex: All Psych majors are hot. universal statement It is much easier to show that something is false than to prove that it is true. In the end, we find support for the alternative hypothesis by disproving (rejecting) the null hypothesis.

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2. UNCERTAINTY AND ERRORS IN

MASAKIT DIN ANG MALING AKALA

Introduction to Hypothesis Testing, Day 2

HYPOTHESIS TESTING

TYPE I ERROR

TYPE II ERROR

Occurs when a researcher rejects an H0 that is actually true. In research, this means that a treatment does have an effect when in fact it has no effect. Consequence of Type I errors can be very serious Alpha level for a hypothesis test is the probability that the test will lead to a Type I error. Thus, alpha level determines the possibility of obtaining sample data in the critical region even though the H0 is true.

Occurs when a researcher fails to reject a null hypothesis that is really false. In research, this means that the hypothesis test has failed to detect a real treatment effect. Consequences of Type II error not as serious as those of Type I error. The researcher can simply repeat the experiment with some improvements to try to demonstrate that the treatment really does work. Type II error represented by beta ().

Ang Akala mo lang meron, pero TYPE I VS. TYPE II wala, wala, wala! error

ERROR

Ang Akala mo lang wala, pero meron, meron, meron! error Actual situation
Effect exists, H0 False

SELECTING AN ALPHA LEVEL

Primary concern in selecting alpha level is to minimize risk of Type I error. The smaller the alpha level, the less risk of committing a Type I error. But a smaller alpha level also means that the hypothesis test also demands more evidence from the research results. We try to maintain a balance between the risk of Type I error and the demands of the hypothesis test. levels of .05, .01, and .001 are reasonably good values; they provide a low risk of error without placing excessive demands on the research results.

No effect, H0 True

Experimenters decision

Reject H0

Type I error Decision correct Decision correct Type II error

Retain H0

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THE PROBLEM

A researcher begins with a known population: scores on a standardized test that are normally distributed with a = 65 and = 15. Q: Will a special training in reading skills produce a change in the scores for the individuals in the population? Sample n=25 individuals is selected, and treatment is given to this sample. Following treatment, average score for sample is M=70. Q: Is there evidence that the training has an effect on test scores?

3. TRYING OUT A HYPOTHESIS

TEST

STEP 1: STATE THE HYPOTHESIS AND SELECT AN ALPHA LEVEL

STEP 2: LOCATE THE CRITICAL REGION

H0: = 65 (After special training, the mean is still 65.) H1: 65 (After training, the mean is different from 65.) = .05 (5% risk of committing a Type I error if we reject H0.)

Draw your graph. With = .05, the critical region consists of sample means that correspond to z-scores beyond the critical boundaries of z = +/-1.96.

STEP 3: OBTAIN SAMPLE DATA AND COMPUTE TEST STATISTIC

STEP 4: MAKE A DECISION ABOUT H0 AND STATE THE CONCLUSION

The obtained z-score is NOT in the critical region. p< (reject H0) p> (retain H0)

M = /n Z =

(Final value: 3) (Final value: +1.67)

Thus, we fail to reject (i.e., we retain) the H0. The data do not provide sufficient evidence that the special training changes test scores.

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FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE A HYPOTHESIS

TEST 1. The size of the mean difference

The larger the difference between the sample mean and the population mean is, the larger the z-score will be, and the greater the likelihood of finding a significant treatment effect.

2. The variability of scores

The larger the variability, the lower the likelihood of finding a significant treatment effect.

4. DIRECTIONAL (ONE-TAILED)
HYPOTHESIS TESTS

3. The number of scores in the sample

The larger the sample size, the greater the likelihood of finding a significant treatment effect.

HOW SUBSTANTIAL IS A SIGNIFICANT TREATMENT EFFECT?

In a directional (one-tailed) hypothesis test, the statistical hypothesis (H0 and H1) specify either an increase or decrease in the population mean score (i.e., they make a statement about the direction of the effect).

Effect size intended to provide a measurement of the absolute magnitude of treatment effect, independent of the size of the sample(s) being used. Cohens d = mean difference standard deviation (of population)

Mean difference = sample M population M

SEATWORK

EVALUATING EFFECT SIZE WITH COHENS D

A psychologist is investigating the hypothesis that children who grow up as the only child in the household develop different personality characteristics than those who grow up in larger families. A sample of n = 30 only children is obtained and each child is given a standardized personality test. For the general population, scores on the test form a normal distribution with a mean of = 50 and a standard deviation of = 15. If the mean for the sample is M = 58, can the researcher conclude that there is a significant difference in personality between only children and the rest of the population? Use a two-tailed test with = .05. What about if you use = .01?

Magnitude of d d = 0.2 d = 0.5 d = 0.8

Evaluation of Effect Size Small effect Medium effect Large effect