Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
Introduo
Este trabalho tem com objetivo uma anlise da raiz unitria e seus
resultados, o mtodo usado para estimar os dados foi Eviews. Os dados usados nesta
pesquisa foi do perodo 1995 2004.Os dados utilizados foram inflao e taxa de
juros,os mesmo coletados do IPEADATA.
Metodologia
Foram utilizados os grficos para realizar o teste de raiz unitria.A partir do grfico foi
verificado que inflao possui intercepto,mas no possui tendncia.A hiptese nula foi
rejeitada.O mesmo teste de raiz unitria foi realizado para taxa de juros onde a hiptese
nula tambm foi rejeitada.
Grfico para Inflao.
.2
.1
.0
-.1
-.2
95
96
97
98
99
00
I
01
02
03
0.8
0.4
0.0
-0.4
-0.8
-1.2
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-49.87268
-3.432966
-2.862582
-2.567370
0.0001
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
I(-1)
C
-1.033717
0.000467
0.020727
0.001018
-49.87268
0.459181
0.0000
0.6461
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.516969
0.516761
0.049089
5.600123
3711.412
1.999525
4.75E-05
0.070615
-3.189520
-3.184574
2487.284
0.000000
t-Statistic
Prob.*
-48.80068
-3.432966
-2.862582
-2.567370
0.0001
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.
R(-1)
C
-1.012470
0.101822
0.020747
0.003523
-48.80068
28.89987
0.0000
0.0000
R-squared
Adjusted R-squared
S.E. of regression
Sum squared resid
Log likelihood
Durbin-Watson stat
0.506110
0.505898
0.136891
43.54993
1325.960
1.999141
-4.25E-05
0.194745
-1.138400
-1.133455
2381.506
0.000000
I(-1)
-0.043610
(0.02232)
[-1.95361]
0.030015
(0.06231)
[ 0.48172]
I(-2)
0.004891
(0.02233)
[ 0.21908]
-0.023397
(0.06232)
[-0.37543]
R(-1)
0.008580
(0.00800)
[ 1.07194]
-0.016327
(0.02234)
[-0.73078]
R(-2)
0.004709
(0.00801)
[ 0.58819]
0.016801
(0.02235)
[ 0.75182]
-0.000825
(0.00153)
[-0.53775]
0.100561
(0.00428)
[ 23.4863]
0.001951
0.000231
5.586492
0.049071
1.134056
3712.149
-3.188946
-3.176577
0.000495
0.049077
0.000519
-0.001204
43.52410
0.136969
0.301036
1325.579
-1.135982
-1.123614
0.100611
0.136886
3.90E-05
3.89E-05
5207.149
-4.470665
-4.445928
R-squared
Adj. R-squared
Sum sq. resids
S.E. equation
F-statistic
Log likelihood
Akaike AIC
Schwarz SC
Mean dependent
S.D. dependent
Criterios s 1 defasagem
VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria
Endogenous variables: I R
Exogenous variables: C
Date: 06/19/12 Time: 15:12
Sample: 2/01/1995 1/01/2004
Included observations: 2319
Lag
LogL
LR
FPE
AIC
SC
HQ
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
5188.009
5191.065
5191.567
5194.267
5197.693
5199.775
5201.022
5202.493
5204.193
NA*
6.103593
1.001538
5.384711
6.825501
4.144508
2.479147
2.922440
3.375440
3.91e-05*
3.92e-05
3.93e-05
3.93e-05
3.94e-05
3.94e-05
3.95e-05
3.96e-05
3.97e-05
-4.472625*
-4.471811
-4.468794
-4.467673
-4.467178
-4.465524
-4.463149
-4.460968
-4.458985
-4.467667*
-4.456937
-4.444004
-4.432967
-4.422556
-4.410985
-4.398694
-4.386597
-4.374697
-4.470818*
-4.466390
-4.459759
-4.455025
-4.450916
-4.445648
-4.439660
-4.433865
-4.428267
I(-1)
-0.042464
(0.02229)
[-1.90466]
0.032844
(0.06218)
[ 0.52817]
R(-1)
0.008522
(0.00800)
[ 1.06485]
-0.016814
(0.02232)
[-0.75330]
-0.000386
(0.00130)
[-0.29823]
0.102246
(0.00361)
[ 28.2919]
0.001625
0.000765
5.597391
0.049087
1.890136
3711.979
-3.189148
-3.181730
0.000454
0.049106
0.000275
-0.000585
43.54470
0.136912
0.320067
1326.099
-1.137661
-1.130242
0.100568
0.136872
3.90E-05
3.89E-05
5207.910
-4.472838
-4.458001
R-squared
Adj. R-squared
Sum sq. resids
S.E. equation
F-statistic
Log likelihood
Akaike AIC
Schwarz SC
Mean dependent
S.D. dependent
Obs
F-Statistic
Probability
2326
1.13391
0.27896
0.28705
0.59743
Dependent variable: I
Excluded
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
1.133915
0.2869
All
1.133915
0.2869
Dependent variable: R
Excluded
Chi-sq
df
Prob.
0.278963
0.5974
All
0.278963
0.5974
Response of I to R
.06
.06
.05
.05
.04
.04
.03
.03
.02
.02
.01
.01
.00
.00
-.01
-.01
1
10
Response of R to I
.12
.08
.08
.04
.04
.00
.00
10
10
Response of R to R
.12
10