Major State-wise Sale of Tractors in India

(2001-2002 to 2009-2010)

State\Year
State
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chhattishgarh
Gujarat
Haryana
Himachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
Jharkhand
Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh
Maharashtra
Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttarakhand
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal
Total

2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
Sales
Production Sales
Production Sales
Production Sales
Production Sales
12203
10987
10477
16603
22444
14836.0
10654.0
13697.0
13396.0
571
502
488
381
770
11682.1
11084.7
11212.6
7704.4
14028
13114
12149
14621
12295
5779.4
3274.7
6469.8
5023.0
1510
1530
1585
6100
6230
136.0
143.4
181.1
155.7
13700
8186
9989
16916
23060
13298.1
12328.9
13193.1
13109.0
13697
11313
11514
12381
14572
1600.4
1122.9
1399.4
1612.3
577
704
545
516
758
1325.8
1322.4
1529.6
1499.0
1071
1402
1602
1172
1290
2242.2
1893.2
2905.0
2311.1
1762
1820
1880
1956
2100
8696.7
6664.6
6562.1
10495.0
8984
6244
8438
15495
25291
718.9
699.7
579.0
670.9
384
135
183
153
697
13606.8
10748.8
15956.7
14104.8
2918
21027
29470
33753
28136
11187.9
10834.1
10323.0
10540.7
8586
4412
6745
10939
16916
400.5
343.7
391.9
447.8
14028
2953
2978
4954
6672
24886.9
23491.2
24729.4
25670.7
19626
14976
13388
11628
12051
14003.7
7536.0
17993.8
12150.8
16228
10722
18227
23829
27949
98.7
96.6
99.9
103.9
6053
4822
6114
12426
18278
597.5
611.8
529.1
556.4
1721
1690
1832
1751
1690
44136.5
38141.6
44246.5
37836.3
48165
39586
38631
46368
45652
16501.2
15522.1
16009.7
16055.4
2510
2157
1992
3086
4335
17453.7
17453.7
21292.6
19812.6

188322

203189 158282 173968.1 178227 209301.3 235028 193255.8 271186

Note : * : Information received from Tractor Manufactures Association, Chennai.

Source : Indian Council of Agricultural Research. (12919)

H0

of Tractors in India

2009-2010)

2005-06
2006-07
2007-08*
2008-09*
2009-10*
Production Sales
Production Sales
Production Sales
Production Sales
Production Total Sales
35613
43758
38417
34690
16951.0
16229.0
19303.0
20421.0
15847.0
225192
1120
1296
1588
3578
8586.8
11098.6
10864.1
12220.7
10556.8
10294
11824
13104
17572
29047
5714.8
5805.0
6291.9
5167.3
4884.7
137754
6460
6570
8790
10174
159.8
147.4
133.6
134.3
135.3
48949
29906
25255
21079
24346
12998.1
14763.0
15307.8
15613.7
15773.6
172437
20129
23627
22573
28715
1381.4
1382.2
1558.1
1401.2
744.0
158521
1121
891
907
1203
1482.0
1572.7
1572.1
1721.3
1522.6
7222
1181
1328
1115
1614
2067.6
3686.8
4164.5
4188.7
2107.8
11775
2456
2897
3643
5667
13489.0
9599.0
12186.0
11275.0
10619.0
24181
22642
17230
13835
23927
638.3
640.5
539.7
598.3
618.9
142086
1654
493
374
587
13195.0
13747.0
12070.5
13914.6
14176.9
4660
18456
18242
24306
33329
12087.0
12645.1
15191.7
11427.6
12906.3
209637
27006
29815
25610
34313
398.5
398.5
421.8
415.0
417.0
164342
7200
4993
5099
7940
25184.2
25313.1
26815.3
27329.8
27320.4
56817
16201
18062
20027
28742
11445.0
14208.8
16058.7
16680.2
11283.4
154701
34583
29456
25763
31799
100.3
100.3
111.6
107.5
108.5
218556
21909
16894
14609
15819
563.6
630.0
633.3
634.7
1726.4
116924
1823
2479
1869
2327
40410.2
41214.5
42094.8
46729.3
44023.5
17182
48191
39682
51513
73680
15608.9
15974.5
16050.2
16295.6
16109.1
431468
5590
5354
6069
9153
20835.8
21702.4
23053.9
23423.4
21591.3
40246

203297.3 315065 210858.4 301426 224422.6 304758 229699.2 400650 212472.5

2352944

Total Production

141334.0
95010.8
48410.6
1326.6
126385.3
12201.9
13547.5
25566.9
89586.4
5704.2
121521.1
107143.4
3634.7
230741.0
121360.4
927.3
6482.8
378833.2
144126.7
186619.4
1860464.2

450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000

Sales

150000

Production

100000
50000
0
200102

200203

200304

200405

200506

Total Sales
40246

225192

10294

Andhra Pradesh

137754

Assam

48949

431468

17182

Bihar
Chhattishgarh

116924

172437
218556

Gujarat

158521

Haryana

7222
11775
24181

154701
56817

4660
164342 209637

142086

Himachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
Jharkhand

Simple Exponential Smoothing

Alpha
.30
t

Data

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

188,322
158,282
178,227
235,028
271,186
315,065
301,426
304,758
400,650

Smoothed
224,351.7 *
213,542.8
196,964.5
191,343.3
204,448.7
224,469.9
251,648.4
266,581.7
278,034.6
314,819.2

Forecast % error
224,352
213,543
196,965
191,343
204,449
224,470
251,648
266,582
278,035
314,819

-19.1
-34.9
-10.5
18.6
24.6
28.8
16.5
12.5
30.6

4,249,156,285.4 Mean Squared Error

21.8% Mean Absolute Percent Error
66.7% Percent Positive Errors
* initial value - mean of first six data values

Hypothesis Test: Independent Groups (t-test, pooled variance)

Group 1
261,438.22
78,609.15
9

Group 2
261,438.22 mean
78,609.15 std. dev.
9n
16
0.000
##############
78,609.152
37,056.710
0

df
difference (Group 1 - Group 2)
pooled variance
pooled std. dev.
standard error of difference
hypothesized difference

0.00 t
1.0000 p-value (two-tailed)

Simple Exponential Smoothing

Alpha
.50
t

Data

1
2
3
4
5
6

188,322
158,282
178,227
235,028
271,186
315,065

Smoothed
224,351.7 *
206,336.8
182,309.4
180,268.2
207,648.1
239,417.1
277,241.0

Forecast % error
224,352
206,337
182,309
180,268
207,648
239,417

-19.1
-30.4
-2.3
23.3
23.4
24.0

7
8
9

301,426
304,758
400,650

289,333.5
297,045.8
348,847.9

277,241
289,334
297,046
348,848

8.0
5.1
25.9

3,104,340,490.4 Mean Squared Error

17.9% Mean Absolute Percent Error
66.7% Percent Positive Errors
* initial value - mean of first six data values

Regression Analysis
R
Adjusted R
R
Std. Error
ANOVA table
Source
Regression
Residual
Total

0.892
0.826
0.944
32744.657

n 9
k 3
Dep. Var. Y

SS
44,074,127,824.4574
5,361,062,709.0981
49,435,190,533.5556

df
3
5
8

coefficients
170,370.9495
5,806.4573
4,996.5343
-315.3704

std. error

Regression output
variables
Intercept
t
t
t

35,018.0926
10,572.8665
867.2446

MS
14,691,375,941.4858
1,072,212,541.8196

F
13.70

t (df=5) p-value
0.166
0.473
-0.364

p-value
.0076

confidence interval
95% lower

.8748 -84,210.4154
.6564 -22,181.8844
.7310 -2,544.6936

Regression Analysis
r 0.032
r -0.180
Std. Error 412902.313
ANOVA table
Source
SS
Regression 102,206,338,727.5620
Residual 3,068,789,759,711.3100
Total 3,170,996,098,438.8800

Regression output
variables
Intercept
Total Sales

Correlation Matrix

coefficients
257,399.0718
-0.6834

n 20
k 1
Dep. Var. Total Production

df
1
18
19

std. error
138,947.6251
0.8826

MS
102,206,338,727.5620
170,488,319,983.9620

F
0.60

p-value
.4488

confidence interval
t (df=18) p-value
95% lower
1.852
.0804 -34,519.0557
-0.774
.4488
-2.5377

Total Sales
Total Production

Total Sales
1.000
-.180

Total Production
1.000

20 sample size
.444 critical value .05 (two-tail)
.561 critical value .01 (two-tail)

Descriptive statistics
Total Sales
count
20
mean
117,647.20
sample variance
11,518,709,491.33
sample standard deviation
107,325.25
minimum
4660
maximum
431468
range
426808
1st quartile
median
3rd quartile
interquartile range
mode
low extremes
low outliers
high outliers
high extremes

22,431.25
127,339.00
166,365.75
143,934.50
#N/A
0
0
1
0

Descriptive statistics
Total Production
count
20
mean
177,001.710
sample variance
166,894,531,496.783
sample standard deviation 408,527.271
minimum
927.3
maximum
1866189.4
range
1865262.1
1st quartile
median
3rd quartile
interquartile range
mode
low extremes
low outliers
high outliers
high extremes

Regression Analysis

10,772.125
92,298.600
130,122.475
119,350.350
#N/A
0
0
1
1

r 0.038
r 0.196
Std. Error 108133.063
ANOVA table
Source
Regression
Residual
Total

Regression output
variables
Intercept
t

n 20
k 1
Dep. Var. Total Sales

SS
8,385,810,790.4136
210,469,669,544.7860
218,855,480,335.2000

df
1
18
19

coefficients
83,911.8429
3,551.0902

std. error
4,193.2203

MS
8,385,810,790.4136
11,692,759,419.1548

F
0.72

t (df=18) p-value
0.847

.4082

p-value
.4082

confidence interval
95% lower
-5,258.5388

te Percent Error

te Percent Error

confidence interval
95% upper
95,823.3300
32,174.9529
1,913.9528

confidence interval
95% upper
549,317.1994
1.1709

Correlation
400000.0
350000.0

Total Production

300000.0
250000.0

y = -0.089 x + 103,537.824
R = 0.010

200000.0
150000.0
100000.0
50000.0
0.0
0

100000

200000
300000
Total Sales

400000

500000

BoxPlot

100000

200000

300000
400000
Total Sales

500000

600000

700000

BoxPlot

0
confidence interval
95% upper
12,360.7193

500000

1000000
Total Production

1500000

2000000

2000000

Sales vs Production
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0

Production Distribution
400000.0
350000.0
300000.0
250000.0
200000.0
150000.0
100000.0
50000.0
0.0

141334.0

126385.3

95010.8

89586.4

48410.6
1326.6

25566.9
13547.5
12201.9

121521.1
107143.4

5704.2

Sales vs Production
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000

Sales
Production

State wise Sales Distribution

2%
10%

Distribution

18%

0%
6%

378833.2
1%
5%

230741.0
186619.4
121521.1
107143.4

3634.7

121360.4

927.3 6482.8

144126.7

9%

6%

7%

2%

7%

9%

0%

Sales vs Production
500000
450000
400000
350000
300000
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0

Sales
Production

se Sales Distribution
Andhra Pradesh
Assam
Bihar
Chhattishgarh

0%
6%

Gujarat
Haryana
2%

Himachal Pradesh
Jammu and Kashmir
Jharkhand

7%

Karnataka
Kerala
Madhya Pradesh

7%

Maharashtra
6%
0%

1% 0%
1%

Orissa
Punjab
Rajasthan
Tamil Nadu
Uttarakhand
Uttar Pradesh
West Bengal

10

Correlation
460000
440000

1400
y = 0.302 x + 314,492.352
R = 0.470

1300

400000
380000
360000

Rainfall(mm)

production

420000
1200
1100
1000

340000
320000
300000
100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000
sales

900
800
100000

Rainfall vs Sales - Correlation

1400
1300
1200
1100

y = 0.000 x + 999.167
R = 0.041

1000
900
800
100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000
sales(Unit)

sales(Unit) Rainfall(mm)
production(Tonnes)
Year
188322
950
360271 2001-02
158282
1075 331050.1 2002-03
178227
900 400938.3 2003-04
235028
1300 371568.8 2004-05
271186
1120 390814.3 2005-06
315065
1225 406183.4 2006-07
301426
1190 431907.6 2007-08
304758
1060 440507.2 2008-09
400650
980 406793.5 2009-10