Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| August 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| August 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Special Margin in TURMERIC (TMCFGRNZM) Contracts
As per a circular by NCDEX dated 2 Aug, 2013, special margin of 10% on the Short side will be imposed on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Turmeric (SYMBOL : TMCFGRNZM) with effect from beginning of day Tuesday, August 06, 2013. (Source: NCDEX)
nd

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 2, 2013
WoW MoM YoY

Kharif acreage up 12% on 17% excess rains

Kharif acreage advanced further as farmers planted more area under rice and pulses during the week aided by good monsoon rains. Total acreage so far stood at 820 lakh hectares (lh), up 12 per cent over corresponding last year. Rice acreage stood at 238.87 lh higher than corresponding last year as farmers in States such as Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab and Andhra Pradesh planted more area under the cereal. However, the eastern States such as West Bengal, Bihar and Odisha reported a lower acreage as less rains in these States has affected the transplantation. Almost all crops, except sugarcane, jute and mesta, have registered an increase in acreage over corresponding last year. The pulses acreage stood at 79.50 lh more than corresponding last year with States such as Karnataka and Uttar Pradesh reporting higher acreages. Tur acreage stood at 32.68 lh (26.60 lh), while area under urad bean was up at 18.55 lh (16.62 lh). The area under moong was up at 18.21 lh (12.16 lh). Oilseeds planting advanced further with groundnut being planted on 37.24 lh (28.78 lh), soyabean on 118.76 lh (103.05 lh), sunflower on 1.83 lh (1.13 lh), sesamum on 10.95 lh (9.52 lh) and castor on 3.46 lh (1.84 lh). The area under coarse cereals has increased to 163.07 lh from 135.75 lh in the review period with maize being planted on 74.90 lh against last years 62.85 lh. States such as Karnataka, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have reported higher acreages. Area under bajra also increased to 59.70 lh( 45.93 lh), while the area under jowar was marginally lower at 18.68 lh (19.25 lh). Area under cotton stood at 108.52 lh against last years 101.12 lh. (Source: Business Line dated 3rd Aug 2013)

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19164 5678 61.11 106.94 1310.6

-0.79 -0.87 0.89 -0.88 -0.03

-2.96 -3.54 3.49 2.14 -0.84

-1.54 -3.07 2.60 7.37 5.39

11.26 8.61 9.42 22.74 -17.44

.Source: Reuters

Incessant rain stokes crop damage fear in MP, Vidarbha

With the southwest monsoon continuing a record-breaking run over most of India, except the eastern part, the region in question is apprehensive of damage to the standing soybean crop. The Malwa region of Madhya Pradesh, along with Vidarbha in Maharashtra, produces almost 80 per cent of the countrys total soybean crop. Till end of July in MP, soybean was sown on around 6.2 million hectares, 7.5 per cent more than last year at this time and 16 per cent more than the normal area. In Maharashtra, soybean had been sown in 3.8 mn ha till last Thursday, 25 per cent more than in the same period last year and 31 per cent more than the normal area (measured as the average area covered in the past five years). Annually, India produces 10-14 mn tonnes of soybean, 30-40 per cent of its total oilseed production. Lower output would mean Indias dependence on import of edible oils could escalate. As of now the situation is not very worrisome and the good thing is that rainfall intensity is gradually coming down over central India. But, if it revives with the same intensity in the next few days, then the damage can be more, a senior official said. There are reports from in Kerala of risk to the cardamom and pepper crops due to waterlogging in plantations. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) says rainfall between June 1 and August 3 in west Madhya Pradesh (the soybean growing region) and Vidarbha was 96 more than the normal. Overall, across the country, rainfall during the same period was 17 per cent above normal. Rain is expected to remain normal in August and September as well, says IMD.
(Source: Business Standard)

Govt eases norms for cotton exports by CCI

The government today eased quantitative restrictions for export of cotton by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) to help boost shipments of the fibre in the current marketing year ending next month. Certain conditions regarding export of cotton have been relaxed for the Cotton Corporation of India Ltd during the current cotton season 2012-13, Directorate General of Foreign Trade (DGFT) said in a notification. CCI is a public sector undertaking under the Ministry of Textiles. At present, exporters can apply for registration certificate (RC) for a maximum quantity of 30,000 bales or actual quantity exported in the previous cotton season, whichever is less. One bale contains 170 kg of cotton. Now, CCI has been exempted from this norm for the cotton marketing season that runs from October-September. The countrys cotton exports have been declining and are estimated to be lower than last years to tal shipments of 11.5 million bales. India, the worlds second largest cotton producer, is estimated to harvest 34 million bales in the 2012-13 crop year which is from July-June. (Source: Business Line dated 3rd Aug 2013)

CPO prices likely to improve by H1 next year

Crude palm oil (CPO) prices, which are currently bearish due to depressed world economies, are expected to pick up by the first half of next year. CPO prices are currently languishing at the RM2,200-RM2,300 a tonne level compared with above RM3,000 during the same period last year. Despite the easing of CPO sales to China and India, the prices are expected to improve next year as the world economy improves and demand from the biodiesel industry further mitigates stock overhang. (Source: Business Times)

Ministry to supply free seeds to drought affected farmers in Namibia

Drought and flood affected agronomic farmers will soon receive free seeds from government, the Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry recently announced. Government has availed N$5 million for the production and distribution of pearl millet to the drought and flood affected communities. Although the provision of free seeds is initially for drought and flood affected rain fed agronomic farmers; the ministry is also considering including commercial rain fed crop farmers. The Ministry announced in June that it will implement drought relief measures for livestock farmers affected by the current drought situation but the announcement did not include the provision of seeds during the period. However, the Ministry now says affected crop producing farmers will be provided with seeds for a maximum of three hectares per farming household. (Source: allafrica.com)

MSP helped raise foodgrain production: Minister

India registered a considerable increase in foodgrain production, thanks to the commencement of minimum support price in agriculture, according to K.V. Thomas, Union Minister of State for Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution. The rice production in the last financial year was 104.22 million tonnes which is expected to touch 130 million tonnes this year. The favourable weather conditions would also help achieve a record wheat production this year at 95 million tonnes. (Source: Business Line)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| August 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana Futures recovered last week on account of short coverings and value buying emerging at lower levels and settled 2.19% higher w-o-w. However, The Spot also settled 1.75% higher. However, record high production coupled with adequate stocks of the crop capped sharp gains. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 25 2013, Special Margin of 5% on the Short side will be imposed in all running contracts and yet to be launched contract in Chana (SYMBOL :CHARJDDEL) with effect from beginning of day Saturday, July 27, 2013. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Chana signifincalty higher at record 8.8 mn tn in the current season 2012-13. With a significant hike in MSP of kharif Pulses for 2013-14 season, area under cultivation is expected to increase in the coming season too. Further good monsoon may not only support good yield of kharif pulses, but also ensure favorable soil condition for sowing of Rabi pulses vizChana and Moong. As per the data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under kharif nd Pulses stood at 79.50 lakh ha as on 2 August 2013, up by 26.2 percent compared to the corresponding period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX Aug'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on Aug 3, 2013 % change Last 2900 2753 Prev day 2.29 0.62 WoW 1.75 2.19 MoM -6.45 -8.96
Source: Reuters

YoY -41.64 -41.67

Spread Matrix
Closing 2900 2753 2801 2879 20-Aug-13 -147 0 -

as on Aug 3, 2013 20-Sep-13 -99 48 0 18-Oct-13 -21 126 78 0 as on Aug 1, 2013 Stocks as on 31st July 79265 59074 11957 150296 Qty in Process 160 30 0 190

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 1 Aug 77791 59074 11957 148822
st

Demand supply scenario

According to fourth advance Estimates released on 22 July 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at record 18.45 mn tn compared to the third advance estimates of 18 mn tn and 17.09 mn tn produced in 2011-12 seaosn. Kharif Pulses witnessed a marginal decline in the output which was offset by a considerable rise in Rabi output, especially Chana. Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 seasons. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. As per the estimates, Chana output is pegged at a record 8.8 mn tn compared with its third advance estimates of 8.49 million tonnes and a previous record of 8.2 mn tn in 2010-11.
nd

Qty in Process 160 30 90 280

309

111

938

1358

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Outlook
Chana prices are expected to trade with a positive bias today on account of lower levels demand coupled with an increase in the margins on the short side. However, while higher sowing of kharif pulses and estimated higher output may cap sharp gains during the intraday. Recovery in the prices may be seen from August onwards as demand will emerge ahead of festivals.
Source: Telequote

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for Aug 5, 2013 Resistance 2780-2810

2700-2720

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| August 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean futures traded on a mixed note last week. Prices recovered in the initial part of the week on reports of crop damage in Madhya Pradesh due to excessive rains. However, sharp gains were capped due to overall higher sowing and expectations of a record crop and prices corrected from higher levels. The futures settled 0.26% higher w-o-w. According to the fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production released by the Ministry of Agriculture Soybean output is pegged significantly higher at record 14.6 mn tn in the current season 2012-13 compared with 12.2 mn tn in 2011-12. Total nine Oilseeds production is pegged at 31 MT in 2012-13, slightly higher than 29.79 MT achieved in the previous year. Southwest monsoon which slowed its pace and was flat to below average in the previous two weeks, recovered significantly during the week ending 24th July 2013. As per the IMD, Cumulative rainfall as on 28th July in the central India (major soy belt), were 45 percent above th the LPA, while in the week ending 24 July they rains were recorded up by 43 percent in Central India. As per data released by the ministry of Agriculture, area under oilseeds nd was recorded at 173.21 la ha on 2 Aug, 2013, an increase of 19.56 percent as compared to the corresponding period last year. International Markets CBOT Soybean futures corrected last week on the back of favorable weather in US for soybean and settled 1.39% lower. However, tightness in the old crop restricted a sharp fall in the prices. The USDA Crop Progress report has deteriorated the crop condition due to dry weather in the US Midwest. The report rated the U.S. crop at 63% good-to-excellent, against 64% last week. USDA reported that 20% of the crop is setting pods vs. 52% a year ago. Also, 65% of the soybean crop is blooming vs. 87% a year ago. Old-crop soybean inventories are expected to drop to a nine-year low by Aug. 31, 2013 due to last year's drought-reduced harvest and strong demand from China and domestic buyers.

Market Highlights

as on Aug 3, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -0.32 4.54 -2.21 -1.97 1.27 0.22 0.26 -1.39 4.28 3.41

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX Oct '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT Aug'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut
`/qtl

Last 3407 2939

MoM -8.41 -19.02 -15.38 4.28 -5.50

`/qtl

1331 USc/Bsh 3450

`/qtl

3213
`/qtl

YoY 23.56 32.41 19.48 22.32 27.14

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3407 Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 2939 2938.5 2960.5 0 -0.5 0 18-Oct-13 -468 20-Nov-13 -468.5

as on Aug 3, 2013 20-Dec-13 -446.5 21.5 22 0 as on Aug 3, 2013 20-Sep-13 -207 30 0 18-Oct-13 -178 59 29 0 as on Aug 1, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 as on Aug 1, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 10 0 61 0 50 121 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3450 3213 3243 3272 20-Aug-13 -237 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 1st Aug 73 0 0 73 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 Qty in Process 0 0 10 0 61 0 20 91 Stocks as on 31st July 73 0 0 73 Stocks as on 31st July 2197 1019 17461 644 60846 3479 1879 87525

Outlook
Soybean prices may trade on a mixed note today. Higher output expectations may keep prices under check. However, reports of crop damage due to excessive rains in Madhya Pradesh may support prices at lower levels. If rainfall activity moderate in the coming weeks then we may see prices consolidating at current levels amid higher sowing.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total Stocks as on 1st Aug 1956 615 16676 644 60304 3479 1909 85583

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures recovered sharply last week on reports of damage of the standing soybean crop and settled 3.41% higher w-o-w. prices have declined over the last few weeks on account of comfortable supplies in the domestic markets. Agriculture ministry in its fourth advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.82 mn tn, up by 18.4% compared to 2011-12 season.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Mustard seed may trade on a mixed note today. Good demand at minimum support price level may restrict further fall in the prices while higher production and sufficient supplies this season may cap upside.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 3, 2013 Support 2870-2905 3174-3194 Resistance 2975-3010 3236-3258
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| August 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Ref soy oil futures recovered sharply from lower levels and settled 3.36% higher last week on reports that the Agri Ministry has proposed to increase the import duty on refined oil coupled with fears of damage of the soybean crop. Festive season demand as well as a sharp depreciation in the Rupee also pushed up the prices. However, weak CBOT soy oil prices capped sharp gains. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 3.2% to 947591 tn in June, supported by sunflower and soy oil imports ahead of Ramadan. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on July 1 stood at 690,000 tn, the trade body said, higher than 675,000 tn on June 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 672.80 664.50 42.38 2296 495.70 Prev day 0.22 0.01 -0.26 -0.17 -0.10

as on Aug 3, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTAugust'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia August '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW 3.23 3.36 -2.75 1.59 0.06

MoM -1.24 -1.26 -9.68 -1.59 -0.16

YoY -13.88 -15.29 -17.77 -21.10 -13.04

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 672.8 664.5 643.45 615.3 20-Aug-13 -8.3 0 20-Sep-13 -29.35 -21.05 0 -

as on Aug 3, 2013 18-Oct-13 -57.5 -49.2 -28.15 0 as on Aug 3, 2013

Outlook
Ref soy oil may trade on a positive note today on the back of higher soybean prices coupled with overall weakness in the Rupee. However, comfortable stock position of imported edible oil coupled may cap sharp gains and pressurize prices at higher levels.

CPO Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Aug-13 30-Sep-13 31-Oct-13 495.7 487.9 480.4 31-Aug-13 0 30-Sep-13 -7.8 0 -

31-Oct-13 -15.3 -7.5 0 NCDEX August contract

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO August Futures also recovered from lower levels gaining 2.46% on a weekly basis supported by festive demand, overall weakness in the Rupee as well as positive international markets Malaysian palm oil futures also gained 1.59% over the week after prices declined to the lowest level this year and have spurred demand for most consumed cooking oil. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in July increased 4.2 percent to 1,406,935 tonnes from 1,350,311 tonnes shipped during June. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for August, unchanged as against 10.5% for July. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% in June against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-15 declined 22.8% at 547,857 tn as against 709,860 tn during June 1-15. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports declined 20.7 per cent in June to 296, 230 tn, from a record high 373,837 tonnes in May as overall weakness in the Rupee made imports expensive.

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX August contract

Outlook
CPO is expected to continue to trade on a positive note today due to lower level demand coupled with festive buying. Overall weakness Rupee may also support prices. However, comfortable supplies may cap sharp upside in the prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX August Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 5, 2013

Source: Telequote

Support 657-660 489-492

Resistance 668-672 499-503

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| August 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures opened lower last week on account of higher than expected arrivals coupled with higher production and good rains in Gujarat. However, prices recovered from lower levels on account of overseas as well as improved domestic demand. The spot as well as the futures settled 0.44% and 0.83% lower w-o-w. Good rains in the main jeera growing regions have increased the moisture content of the soil, improving prospects of a better sowing in the coming season. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 9462.64 tn of jeera in June. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam & USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1% Jeera of Indian origin is being offered for Singapore at $2,3502,400/tn (FOB Mum) while for Europe at $2,750-2,850/tn (FOB Mum).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13528 13100 5310 4856 Prev day -0.03 -0.02 0.00 -0.33

as on Aug 3, 2013 % Change WoW -0.44 -0.83 -4.77 -7.47 MoM -1.27 -1.49 -9.32 -19.39 YoY -16.23 -17.21 0.61 -12.28

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Aug Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 13528.1 13100 13255 13440 20-Aug-13 -428.1 0 20-Sep-13 -273.1 155 0 -

as on Aug 3, 2013 18-Oct-13 -88.1 340 185 0 as on Aug 3, 2013 20-Aug-13 -454 0 20-Sep-13 -394 60 0 18-Oct-13 -302 152 92 0 as on Aug 1, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 31st July Process 1534 4719 6253 8484 NCDEX August contract 0 153 153 171

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 1,500 bags on Saturday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 5310 4856 4916 5008

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera may trade higher today supported by overseas as well as domestic demand. However, higher supplies and good rains in the jeera sowing regions may cap gains. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not shipping.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 1st Aug 1508 4845 6353 8486 Qty in Process 9 6 15 329

Turmeric
Turmeric futures continued to trade on a bearish note last week as huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing progress and weak local buying has mounted pressure on the prices. The spot as well as the Futures settled 4.77% and 7.47% lower w-o-w. The regulator imposed 10% special margin on Turmeric w.e.f 06/08/2013.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad and Erode mandi stood at 1,500 bags and 4,000 bags respectively on Friday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported at st 0.39 lakh ha as on 31 July, as against 0.4 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.46 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is reported around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric is expected to trade lower extending previous weeks losses as the ongoing sowing coupled with good monsoon progress as well as huge carryover stocks are expected to pressurize prices. However, an increase in the margins on the short side coupled with declining arrivals may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for Aug 5, 2013

Support 12910-13000 4700-4780 Resistance 13190-13300 4930-5010
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| August 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures continued to decline last week and settled 0.93% lower as ample supplies coupled with sluggish demand in the domestic markets kept prices under downside pressure. Expectations of recovery in the cane yield due to improving monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka also kept prices under check. However, expectations of improvement in demand ahead of the upcoming festive season supported prices. Export orders as well as an increase in the import duty also supported prices at lower levels Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation. However, the same didnt reflect in the market as supplies are significantly higher. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in nd 48.53 lk ha as on 2 Aug 2013 as compared to 50.06 lk ha last year as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area. Based on satellite images for June and field surveys carried out by ISMA (Indian Sugar Mills Association), total sugarcane acreage available for crushing in the sugar season 2013-14 will be about 51.50 lakh hectares, which is about 1.52% less than 52.30 lakh hectares last year. (Source: ET)

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX Aug '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE October '13 Fut `/qtl 2999 `/qtl 490 $/tonne 373.11 $/tonne -0.24 0.35 -0.43 Last 3040

as on Aug 3, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.02 -0.41 -0.93 2.13 1.94 MoM YoY -0.95 -17.42 0.20 -1.13 1.57 -15.40 -19.74 -23.82

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 18-Oct-13 Closing 3039.6 2999 3007 3021 20-Aug-13 -40.6 0 20-Sep-13 -32.6 8 0 -

as on Aug 3, 2013 18-Oct-13 -18.6 22 14 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. However, good monsoon may curb some losses. According to the preliminary estimate of an industry body, Production is estimated to be 237 lakh tonne for 2013-14 season as compared to 250 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. According to trade body, with a domestic consumption of 235 lakh tonne and an expected production of 237 lakh tonne, the year 2013-14 will be a consecutive fourth year of surplus production for India. ISMA has estimated that the opening balance as on October 1, 2013 (for the new season 2013-14), will be around 80 lakh tonne, which is about 20 lakh tonne more than the normal opening balance.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 1st Aug 1948 5650 21 923 8542 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

as on Aug 1, 2013 Stocks as on 31th July 2548 5650 21 923 9142 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar Futures gained 2.13% and 1.94% last week on reports that about 18% of sugarcane in Brazil has been damaged due to frost. However, a drier weather in Brazil capped sharp gains. USDA said sugar loans due at July end have been repaid in cash. Production in Brazil st rose 60% to 2.4 mn tn in 1 half of July as against 1.5 mn tn in second half of June. Prices, in the long term have declined on account of abundant supplies from Brazil. According to UNICA, Brazilian mills have produced 88.95 lakh tn of sugar from the start of the cane season on April 1 through June, up 33 percent from 66.9 lakh tn a year ago. Also, Mills have used 58.1 percent of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 53.82 percent at this time last year with the rest used for sugar.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar Futures are expected to trade on a mixed note. Higher supplies and expectations of improvement in the cane output may continue to pressurize prices. However, good export orders coupled with an increase in import duty and festive season demand may limit the downside.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for Aug 5, 2013 Support 2980-2990 Resistance 3010-3023

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| August 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
MCX Cotton as well as NCDEX Kapas Futures recovered from lower levels and settled 2.87% and 0.15% higher after the government allowed the Cotton Corporation of India to export more cotton in the current season. A weak Rupee lent support to the prices. Prices declined earlier on the back of higher sowing and above average rains so far in so far in the country pressurized prices. Ministry of Agriculture released its fourth Advance estimates of Food grain production on Monday wherein it pegged Cotton output at 34 million bales (1 bale= 170 kg) in 2012-13, lower than the record 35.2 million bales in the previous year. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the th seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) till 14 July is reported at 331.15, down 1.48 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 986.5 20090 85.32 91.15

as on Aug 3, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.15 1.49 0.95 3.40 -0.65 -0.06 0.05 -2.46 MoM YoY 1.49 #N/A 2.87 13.37 2.52 21.12 -1.67 12.60
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Oct 13 Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 31-Oct-13 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 20090 19590 19590 31-Oct-13 0

as on Aug 3, 2013 29-Nov-13 31-Dec-13 -500 0 -500 0 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton sowing is nearing its end and almost 90% of sowing is completed till last week. As per the ministry of agriculture, cotton sowing was done nd on 108.52 la ha on 2 Aug 2013 as against 144.87 la ha last year. In Gujarat, cotton was sown on 26.13 la ha as on 29 July 2013 as against 21.92 la ha during the same period last year. In Rajasthan, it was done on th 2.94 la ha as on 30 July 2013 as against 4.47 la ha last year. In AP, st cotton sowing was undertaken on 18.65 la ha as on 31 July 2013 as against 18.14 la ha last year.
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Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 1st Aug 5000 1800 102100 18600 0 0 127500

as on Aug 1, 2013 Stocks as on 31st July 5000 1800 102100 18600 0 100 127600

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 mn bales last year to 23.5 mn bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 201213 at 35.2 mn bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 mn bales in 2011-12.
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Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

ICE cotton corrected by 0.65% on Friday after India allowed CCI to export more cotton coupled with worries of reduced demand from China, the world's top textile market as well as rains in Texas. The USDA weekly crop progress report rated good/excellent condition at 45% against 44% last week and reduced the poor/very poor at 22% against 24% last week. The USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. ICAC has increased projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Outlook
Cotton prices may trade higher due to higher export permission coupled with domestic demand. However, higher sowing as well as a good monsoon may cap sharp gains.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX Oct Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for Aug 5, 2013 Support 975-981 19880-19990 Resistance 993-1000 20200-20300
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| August 05, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar complex recovered last week on account of short coverings coupled with lower level buying in the spot markets as traders were not ready to sell their stocks at such low levels and are ready to hold their stocks for better realization. Prices have declined sharply and traded on a bearish note over the last few weeks on account of abundant supplies and expectations of higher production amid ample rains. Early sowing this season will also ensure early harvesting of guar crop thereby leading to smooth supplies in the physical markets. Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures settled 2.05% and 1.7% higher w-o-w. Overall trend in guar, since the relaunch of the futures contract, remained bearish. Higher production last year and comparatively lower exports have resulted into higher supplies this year. With early and above normal monsoon so far, prospects for next years crop are also strong.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX Oct 13 Fut `/qtl 4480 `/qtl 15776 `/qtl 12580 `/qtl 3.03 5.15 2.99 Last Prev day 5700 7.04

as on Aug 3, 2013 % change WoW 8.69 2.05 5.73 1.70 MoM -19.65 -35.72 -21.59 -36.37 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 5700 4480 4440 4470 18-Oct-13 -1220 0 20-Nov-13 -1260 -40 0 -

as on Aug 3, 2013 20-Dec-13 -1230 -10 30 0 as on Aug 3, 2013 20-Nov-13 -3276 -80 0 20-Dec-13 -3276 -80 0 0 as on Aug 1, 2013 Stocks as on 31st July 59 81 0 Qty in Process 0 0 0

Monsoon and Sowing

During the last week, rains increased its intensity over areas growing soybean, groundnut and cotton while they eased in the northwest and the northeast regions. However, cumulative rainfall continues to remain above average. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 22 July, 2013 stood at 12.77 lakh hectares compared with 10.15 lakh hectares sown during the same period last year. Guarseed area increased significantly last year. With favorable monsoon and with attractive returns, acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.
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NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 20-Dec-13 Closing 15776 12580 12500 12500 18-Oct-13 -3196 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Sriganganagar Stocks as on 1 Aug 69 131 20
st

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Qty in Process 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar seed and guar gum prices trade higher today extending last weeks gains on account lower level demand. Farmers are also not selling at such low levels. However, overall trend remains negative due to higher sowing. If the current pace of rains continues and sowing increase significantly, we may see further downside over the short term.

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for Aug 5, 2013 Support 4330-4400 4320-4390 12300-12450 12250-12400 Resistance 4550-4620 4540-4610 12720-12870 12670-12820
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com