Market Outlook, 14-08-2013

Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open flat to negative today tracking marginally
negative opening trades in the SGX Nifty and mixed start to the Asian markets.
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
BSE Sensex
1.5
The US markets fluctuated over the course of the trading day on Tuesday, as
traders digested relatively upbeat retail sales data as well as comments regarding
the outlook for the Federal Reserve's stimulus program from Atlanta Fed President
Dennis Lockhart. A report released by the Commerce Department showed fourth
consecutive monthly increase in retail sales during July. Meanwhile, the European
markets finished the trading session on Tuesday in positive territory, thanks to
several better than expected economic reports from the region. Germany's
economic sentiment surged to a five-month high in August, while UK home prices
increased at the fastest pace in almost seven years in July.
Nifty
1.5
87
5,699
MID CAP
1.1
62
5,554
SMALL CAP
1.0
53
5,369
BSE HC
1.7
149
9,134
28
5,313
OIL & GAS
Meanwhile, Indian markets rose sharply higher to one-week highs on Tuesday,

helped by firm global cues as well as concerted efforts of the government to curb
the widening current account deficit. Investor sentiment improved after current RBI
Governor said that perhaps there is a need to reduce the reserves set aside by
banks through cash reserve ratio or statutory liquidity ratio.
BSE IT
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,114/ 5,661 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,364 19,498 / 5,743 5,787 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,114/ 5,661 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
18,980 18,731 / 5,617 5,535 levels.
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
18,731
18,980
19,114
19,364
19,498
NIFTY
5,535
5,617
5,661
5,743
5,787
283 19,230
BSE PSU
0.5
BANKEX
2.9
323 11,408
AUTO
2.3
239 10,528
METAL
(0.1)
(4)
7,162
0.3
28
8,331
1.8
132
7,645
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
Dow Jones
0.2
31 15,451
NASDAQ
0.4
14
3,684
FTSE
0.6
38
6,612
Nikkei
2.6
348 13,867
Hang Sang
1.2
270 22,541
Straits Times
0.4
12
3,244
Shanghai Com
0.2
2,106
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
1.7
0.9
$50.4
WIT
4.9
0.5
$9.6
IBN
3.8
1.2
$32.4
HDB
3.8
1.2
$32.4
Indian ADR
News Analysis
Import duty on gold hiked by 200bp to 10%

Workers union at Bajaj Autos Chakan plant calls off strike
Result Review: MM, Tata Steel, Hindalco, GSPL, Sadbhav Engineering, IVRCL,
CCCL, Cravatex
Result Preview: SAIL, LIC Housing, Nalco, Simplex Infrastructures
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
1,432
871
Declines
913
447
Unchanged
144
83
Advances
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Volumes (` cr)
Net Inflows (August 12, 2013)

` cr
Purch
Sales
Net
MTD
YTD
FII
MFs
3,222
838
2,807
569
416
269
1,053
(370)
66,451
(14,716)
FII Derivatives (August 13, 2013)

` cr
Index Futures
Stock Futures
Purch
1,917
2,136
Sales
2,209
1,738
Net
(292)
398
Open Interest
10,752
27,365
Gainers / Losers
Company
Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Oberoi Realty
191
9.9
MCX
Bajaj Finance
1,243
9.9
91
9.2
Ranbaxy Labs
398
8.2
Hindalco Ind.
DLF
150
8.0
Ambuja Cements
Future Retail
www.angelbroking.com
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
267
(5.0)
Hindustan Copp.
62
(2.9)
JP Power
11
(2.6)
91
(2.5)
174
(2.4)
BSE
1,964
NSE
11,554
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Import duty on gold hiked by 200bp to 10%

The government has raised import duty on gold and platinum by 200bp to 10%
from 8% earlier. In addition, excise duty on refined gold bars has been upped to
9% from 7% and that on silver to 8% from 4%.
This is the third hike in import duty on gold 2013 itself. In January 2013 the duty
was hiked from 4% to 6%. Gold imports soared in the month of April and May
2013 to touch USD6.8bn and USD7.7bn respectively, following which another
200bp hike was imposed in June 2013 to 8%. We believe that much of the
consumer demand for the metal has been front-ended with a decline in prices.
That, coupled with dampening investment demand and tighter policy restrictions
on import of gold have brought down imports to about USD2bn in the months of
June and July 2013 each.
These new measures come on the back of tighter import norms for gold imposed
by the RBI. As per the revised scheme announced on July 22, 2013 the banks/
agencies nominated for import of gold are mandated to ensure that at least 20%
of every lot of import of gold is exclusively made available for the purpose of
export. Of the imported quantity, 20% would be retained in the customs bonded
warehouses and any fresh imports of gold can take place only after one-fifth of the
quantity released is actually exported.
The Finance Minister had earlier announced some steps to attract foreign inflows
in the economy and stabilize the exchange rate. These include 1) public sector
financial institutions would be allowed to raise quasi-sovereign bonds to finance
long-term infrastructure needs. PFC, IIFCL and IRFC are expected to raise money
to the tune of USD4bn through quasi sovereign bonds, 2) PSU oil companies
would be allowed to raise funds (USD4bn) through External Commercial
Borrowings (ECBs) and trade finance and 3) make NRI bonds attractive by
deregulating interest rates on foreign currency non-resident. Banks would also not
be required to meet statutory reserve requirements on these deposits. Put together,
the FM expects these measures to bring in USD11bn in the economy.
The RBI has also taken a number of steps to tackle liquidity and thereby raised
yields on the short end of the curve. This is expected to curb speculative attack on
the currency and attract FII investors to the debt market.
We believe that these steps are sentimentally positive for the INR in the near-term
and are also likely to tackle worries over financing the current account deficit. The
current account deficit itself is likely to moderate during FY2014 on account of
lower gold imports and due to the INR depreciation, import substitution of cheaper
manufactured goods from abroad may also ensue.
Workers union at Bajaj Autos Chakan plant calls off strike

According to media reports, workers union at Bajaj Autos (BJAUT) Chakan plant
has called off the strike and is slated to resume work from August 14, 2013. The
workers at the plant had been on a strike since June 25, 2013 demanding
company shares at a discounted price in addition to better work conditions and
withdrawal of charges slapped against 21 employees. Incidentally, none of the
demands of the workers have been met by the management yet. However,
according to reports, the workers union will continue to hold talks with the
management to resolve the differences. It has been further learnt that the union is
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
demanding revision in wage agreement that was signed in 2009. The reports
indicate that the existing wage agreement has been scrapped and the company
management is currently working on a new agreement.
Meanwhile, according to the Management, the company has lost sales of only
20,000-25,000 units due to the Chakan strike which continued for around 50
days. The Chakan plant which has an installed capacity of 1.2mn units annually
(~22% of the total installed capacity), manufactures products like Pulsar, Avenger,
Ninja and KTM. While the Chakan plant operated at 50-60% utilization levels
during the strike period, the company had shifted the Pulsar production to
Aurangabad facility to make good the production loss at Chakan plant.
We see this as a positive development for the company as with the strike being
called off, the company will be able to reach full production levels in the next three
to four days. This is very important for the company going into the festival season
and also due to the fact that the company has plans to launch new family of
Discover models around the festival season. We continue to maintain our positive
view on the company. At `1,859, the stock is trading at 13.3x FY2015E earnings.
We retain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `2,102,
valuing the company at 15x FY2015E earnings.
Result Review
MM (CMP: `871/ TP: Under Review/ Upside: Under Review)
For 1QFY2014, Mahindra and Mahindra (MM) reported mixed performance. Topline at `10,023cr was slightly lower than our expectations of `10,563cr on
account of a 3.7% qoq decline in net average realization. However, bottom-line at
`938cr was ahead of our estimates of `850cr mainly driven by 174.4% yoy
(78.1% qoq) increase in other income and aided further by lower tax-rate (23.2%
vs. 25.1% yoy). The overall results were driven by an impressive performance by
the tractor segment following strong growth in volumes even though the
automotive segment posted muted results.
The top-line registered 7% yoy (down 4.4% qoq) growth to `10,023cr led by 6.4%
yoy (down 0.7% qoq) growth in volumes and 0.6% yoy growth in net average
realization. The volume growth for the quarter was driven by an extremely strong
growth in the tractors segment (up 25.2% yoy) on the back of the expectations of
normal monsoon and better prospects for kharif crop. The automotive segment
volumes however, remained flat as utility vehicle volumes witnessed a sharp
slowdown following an increase in excise duty and also due to increasing
competition in the segment. The net average realization witnessed a decline of
3.7% sequentially as average realization in the tractor and automotive segments
declined by 9% and 2.5% qoq respectively. While the tractor segment revenues
posted a strong growth of 26.7% yoy (36.6% qoq); automotive segment revenues
recorded a 2.5% yoy (sharp fall of 19.6% qoq) decline during the quarter. On the
operating front, EBITDA margins expanded 100bp yoy (74bp qoq) to 12.8%
marginally better than our expectations of 12.5%. The margin performance was
led by softening of commodity prices, cost control initiatives, lower share of traded
goods following decline in automotive volumes and also due to greater share of
tractors (37.7% as against 25% yoy) in the product-mix. As a result, operating front
grew 16% yoy (1.4% qoq) to `1,287cr. The adjusted bottom-line nevertheless,
surged 29.3% yoy (17.4% qoq) to `938cr, ahead of our expectations of `850cr.
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
The bottom-line benefited from higher other income at `164cr (against `60cr in
1QFY2013) aided by dividend income of `81cr from the subsidiaries. Lower taxrate on account of higher R&D spends also boosted the bottom-line performance
during the quarter.
We retain our positive view on MM and maintain our Buy rating on the stock as we
expect strong growth in the tractor volumes to offset the weakness in the
automotive segment. However, our target price is currently Under Review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
P/E P/BV
(x)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
43,371
12.3 3,754
63.6
23.3
13.7
2.9
7.2
0.8
FY2015E
49,049
12.5 4,278
72.5
22.2
12.0
2.5
5.9
0.7
Tata Steel (CMP: `241/ TP: Under Review/ Upside: -)

Tata Steels consolidated 1QFY2014 net profit was above our expectations on
account of better-than-expected cost performance at its European operations. Its
net sales decreased 3.0% yoy to `32,805 (in line with our estimate of `32,728cr).
Consolidated steel sales volumes increased 7.0% yoy to 6.01mn tonnes in
1QFY2014. Its India operations net sales grew by 6.1% yoy to `9,455cr due to
higher sales volumes (+26.4% yoy to 2.01mn tonnes). On the international front,
Tata Steel Europes (TSE) volumes declined by 2.2% yoy to 3.1mn tonne.
EBITDA/tonne at Tata Steel India stood at `14,450 while EBITDA/tonne at Tata
Steel Europe stood at `2,473 (which was better than our expectation). Overall, its
EBITDA increased 8.4% yoy to `3,688cr, representing an EBITDA margin of
11.2%. Tax expenses decreased by 60.9% yoy to `351cr; hence, its adjusted net
profit grew by a massive 87.5% yoy to `1,121cr (above our estimate of `487cr).
We maintain our Buy rating on the stock while we keep our target price under
review.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
PAT EPS
(`cr)
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014
140,917
9.7 1,918 19.7
5.5
12.2
0.7
7.0
0.7
FY2015
151,537
10.8 3,101 31.9
8.3
7.6
0.6
7.0
0.8
Hindalco (CMP: `91/ TP: -/ Upside :-)

Hindalcos standalone 1QFY2014 net profit was below our expectations due to
higher-than-expected interest cost. Its net sales decreased 3.3% yoy to `5,767
(below our estimate of `6,810cr). Its raw material costs and other expenses
decreased by 5.8% and 6.8% yoy, respectively. Hence, its EBITDA increased 3.3%
yoy to `478cr. Other income increased by 31.2% yoy to `225cr whereas interest
costs increased by 82.5% yoy to `149cr. There was an exceptional item in the
other income and adjusting for that its net profit declined by 8.0% yoy to `271cr
(below our estimate of `328cr). We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
PAT EPS
(` cr)
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
90,717
8.7 2,513 13.1
7.2
6.9
0.5
6.2
0.5
FY2015E
95,092
9.1 2,821 14.7
7.5
6.2
0.4
5.5
0.5
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Gujarat State Petronet (CMP: `55/ TP: Under Review)

Gujarat State Petronet Ltd (GSPL) reported 1QFY2014 results. Total operating
revenues increased by 10.8% yoy to `296cr mainly due to increase in realizations
partially offset by decline in transmission volumes. Transmission volumes for
1QFY2014 decreased by 28.8% yoy to 2015 mmscm. EBIDTA also increased by
8.0% yoy to `270cr mainly due to higher realizations. Depreciation expenses rose
by 4.5% yoy to `46cr and interest costs rose 18.5% to `38cr. Hence, PAT increased
at a lower rate of 1.6% yoy to `124cr. We maintain our Buy view on the stock but
keep our target price under review.
Y/E
March
FY2014E
FY2015E
Sales
(` cr)
OPM
(%)
PAT
(` cr)
EPS
(`)
ROE
(%)
P/E
(x)
P/BV
(x)
EV/EBITDA
(x)
EV/Sales
(x)
1,171
1,287
91.9
91.9
569
639
10.1
11.3
17.3
16.8
5.5
4.9
0.9
0.8
2.3
1.8
2.1
1.7
Sadbhav Engineering (CMP: `73/ TP: Under Review)

For 1QFY2014, Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) reported a poor set of numbers which
were below our estimates. SEL posted decent set of numbers on the revenue front;
however owing to high interest burden earnings were below our estimate. On the
top-line front, SEL reported a revenue growth of 33.6% yoy to `561cr in
1QFY2014 against our estimate of `591cr. This was mainly on the back of pick up
in execution in remaining under construction projects and lower base of last year.
On the margin front, the company posted EBITDAM of 10.3% up by 98bp yoy and
was slightly lower than our estimate of 10.6%. Interest cost grew by 61.9% yoy to
`28cr and was higher than our estimate by 25.3%. On the bottom-line front,
companys PAT reported a decline of 69.2% yoy to `16cr in 1QFY2014 against
our estimate of `23cr. This was mainly due to lower-than-expected operational
performance and higher interest expense during the quarter. At CMP, the stock is
trading at P/E and P/BV of 10.9x and 1.1 FY2015 earnings. The stock rating is
currently under review. We shall revise our estimates post earnings conference call
with the management which is expected to be scheduled on August 14, 2013 at
2.30pm.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
P/BVEV/EBITDAEV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E 2,462
10.6
89
5.9
10.2
12.4
1.2
3.1
0.3
FY2015E 2,731
10.6
101
6.7
10.5
10.9
1.1
3.0
0.3
IVRCL (CMP: `11/ TP: Under Review)

For 1QFY2014, IVRCL ltd (IVRCL) reported disappointing set of numbers on the
operating front, which were significantly below our and consensus estimates. The
company reported revenue of `1,007cr in 1QFY2014, registering a decline of
16.7% yoy which was significantly below our estimate by 19.4%. On the operating
margins, the company posted Abysmal margins of 4.6%, a decline of
568bp/437bp on yoy/qoq basis and was significantly below our estimates of
8.2%. This was mainly on account of (a) lower-than-expected execution and (b)
increase in subcontracting expense (up 46% yoy) and raw material expense (up
19% yoy) during the quarter. Interest cost came in at `128cr in 1QFY2014, a
decline of 7.1% yoy. On earnings front, IVRCL reported loss of `88cr (our estimate
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
was a loss of `3cr) against a loss of `6cr in 5QFY2012. This was mainly on back
of lower-than-expected operational performance and high interest cost. Currently,
the Target price and rating is under review. We shall revise our estimates post
earnings conference call with the management.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
ROE P/E
(%)
(x)
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
5,673
8.1
44
1.4
2.0 7.8
0.2
6.1
0.5
FY2015E
5,892
8.4
56
1.8
2.6 6.1
0.2
5.9
0.5
CCCL (CMP: `7/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

CCCL posted a dismal set of numbers once again for the quarter. Lower-thanexpected performance at both revenue and EBITDAM front along with high interest
cost led to loss for the quarter. On the top-line front, CCCL revenues decline by
37.2% yoy to `303cr in 1QFY2014 and was lower than our estimate of `458cr.
The major disappointment continues on the margin front, as the company posted
abysmal EBITDA margin of 0.5% against our expectations of 1.5%. The main
reason for decline in margins was lower-than-expected execution, increase in cost
pressures, rise in employee cost and labour cost. Further, on the bottom-line front
the company posted a loss of `30cr vs a loss of `16cr in 1QFY2013 and against
our expectations of a loss of `15cr, mainly on account of (a) dismal revenue
performance, (b) a fall in margin and (c) higher interest cost (`29cr, a jump of
11% yoy). CCCL secured order worth ~`114cr in 1QFY2014, taking its
outstanding order book to `3,256cr. The company has disappointed on the
earnings front and posted erratic margins since the last few quarters. Hence, we
maintain our Neutral view on the stock.
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT EPS
March
(` cr)
(%) (` cr)
FY2014E
1,715
2.4
FY2015E
1,824
6.2
(`)
P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales
ROE
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(54) (2.9) (10.6)
(2.4)
0.3
21.2
0.5
(1.4) (19.4)
0.3
7.9
0.5
(7) (0.4)
Cravatex (CMP: `270/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Cravatex reported disappointing set of standalone numbers for 1QFY2014. Topline plunged by 37.1% yoy to `35cr. Net sales from International segment fell
significantly by 42% yoy while domestic segment dip by 2.9% yoy. On the
operating front the EBITDA dip by 33.6% yoy to `3.6cr due to poor top-line
performance. However the EBITDA margins expanded by 72bp yoy mainly on
account of 41.4% lower raw material cost. On the segmental front, the EBIT
margin for the domestic segment were stable at 5.3% while for the international
segment margins expanded by 90 bps yoy to 17.9%. The company reported a
bottom-line of `0.8cr, low by 72.9% yoy on account of higher interest outgo by
45.4% yoy. The company, since is yet to declare its consolidated numbers the stock
is till then under review.
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Result Preview
SAIL (CMP: `44/ TP:-/ Upside :-)
SAIL is expected to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect the
companys top line to decline by 1.8% yoy to `10,452cr due to lower realizations.
We expect EBITDA margin to contract by 591bp yoy to 8.3% on account of higher
staff costs and other expenses. The bottom line is expected to fall by 49.0% yoy to
`486cr. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E
March
Sales
PAT EPS
OPM
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
ROE
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
54,786
9.8 2,410 5.5
5.5
7.9
0.4
5.8
0.6
FY2015E
64,505
11.8 2,289 7.5
7.1
5.9
0.4
4.2
0.5
LIC Housing (CMP: `178/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

LIC Housing is expected to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. NII is expected
to increase by 25.7% yoy to `476cr, while non-interest income is expected to come
in at `24cr, an increase of 13.6% yoy. Operating expenses are expected to
increase by 31% yoy to `68cr, while Provisioning expenses are expected to come in
at `19cr.Overall, we expect PAT to increase by 32.1% yoy to `301cr. We
recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
ROA
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
March
ROE P/E
(x)
P/ABV
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
2,180
2.4 1,330
26.3
144.9
1.5
19.0 6.7
1.2
FY2015E
2,732
2.5 1,622
32.1
168.5
1.5
19.9 5.5
1.0
Nalco (CMP: `27/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Nalco is slated to report its 1QFY2014 results today. We expect net sales to
increase by 4.7% yoy to `1,798cr. EBITDA margin is expected to improve by
226bp yoy to 20.0% due to lower costs. Net profit is expected to increase by
10.0% yoy to `245cr. We recommend Neutral on the stock.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
(`cr)
(%)
` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
7,656
13.1
658
2.6
5.4
10.6
0.6
2.6
0.3
FY2015E
7,988
13.5
675
2.6
5.5
10.3
0.6
2.7
0.4
March
P/BVEV/EBITDA EV/Sales
Simplex Infrastructures (CMP: `54/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Simplex Infrastructures is expected to continue its subdued performance on the
revenue front, as we expect the company to report a decline in revenue of 4.5%
yoy to `1,514cr, for 1QFY2014. This is mainly due to its slow moving order book.
We expect the EBITDA margin to fall by 27bp to 9.4%. The bottom-line is expected
to be under pressure due to increase in interest cost (expected to jump 16.7% yoy)
and lower-than-expected revenue growth, resulting in a yoy decline of 51.3% to
`14cr for the quarter. We maintain a Neutral on the stock.
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Y/E
Sales OPM
PAT EPS
March
(` cr)
(%) (` cr)
FY2014E
6,296
9.4
70 14.1
5.2
3.8
0.2
5.0
0.5
FY2015E
7,020
9.6
105 21.3
7.5
2.5
0.2
4.5
0.4
(`)
ROE
(%)
P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
Quarterly Bloomberg Consensus Estimate

Essar Oil (14/08/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
22,681
19,993
13.4
23,534
(3.6)
EBITDA
986
360
173.9
1,322
(25.4)
EBITDA margin (%)
4.3
1.8
Net profit
52
(1,400)
(103.7)
200
(74.0)
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
Net sales
5.6
HDIL Consolidated (14/08/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
1QFY14E
1QFY13
Net sales
244
198
23.2
140
74.3
EBITDA
140
290
(51.7)
262
(46.6)
EBITDA margin (%)
57.4
146.5
81
105
(22.9)
(280)
(128.9)
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
294
228
28.9
316
(7.0)
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
10,745
10,641
1.0
12,163
(11.7)
EBITDA
911
1,515
(39.9)
894
1.9
EBITDA margin (%)
8.5
14.2
Net profit
339
696
Net profit
187.1
LIC Housing Finance (14/08/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net profit
SAIL (14/08/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
Net sales
7.4
(51.3)
447
Economic and Political News
Economists expect CAD to be between 4.25-4.55% of GDP in FY2014

Government allows 13 companies to raise `48,000cr via tax-free bonds
Rubber production drops 32.4% in July
House panel for early revision of Indo-Mauritius tax treaty
Maharashtra needs `3,000cr to bridge gaps in school infrastructure
Corporate News
NMDC's Legacy Iron cancels AUD25mn rights issue

IDBI Bank puts Deccan Chronicle's newspaper titles on the block
Bosch to launch ABS for two-wheelers in CY2014
Coal India modifies FSA to allow third party to test quality
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
(24.2)
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Result Calendar
Date
August 14, 2013
August 29, 2013
Company
SAIL, Nalco, LIC Housing Fin., Essar Oil, Bhushan Steel, HDIL, Monnet Ispat, Amara Raja Batteries, Anant Raj, Orchid
Chemicals, Simplex Infra, Electrosteel Castings, Patel Engg., Madhucon Proj, JK Tyre, Abbott India
Mphasis
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
August 14, 2013
August 15, 2013
August 16, 2013
2:00PM
UK
11:30AM
Jobless claims change
% Change
Jul
(21.20)
(15.00)
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
2Q P
(1.40)
0.70
12:00PM
India
% Change
Jul
4.86
5.00
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q A
(0.30)
0.20
6:00PM
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Jul
0.80
0.30
6:00PM
US
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Aug 10
333.00
335.00
6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jul
0.50
0.20
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
Jul
0.31
0.25
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jul
836.00
902.00
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Jul
918.00
945.00
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
August 21, 2013
7:30PM
US
Jul F
1.60
1.60
Million
Jul
5.08
5.10
August 22, 2013
1:00PM
1:00PM
Germany PMI Services
Value
Aug A
51.30
--
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug A
50.70
--
7:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Aug A
(17.40)
--
7:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Jul
497.00
490.00
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q P
1.40
--
August 27, 2013
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Aug
80.30
--
August 29, 2013
6:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q S
1.70
--
1:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Aug
(7.00)
--
August 30, 2013
5:30PM
India
Qtrly GDP YoY%
% Change
2Q
4.80
--
September 1, 2013
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
50.30
--
September 2, 2013
2:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Aug
54.60
--
September 5, 2013
4:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
% Ratio
Sep 5
0.50
0.50
5:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
Sep 5
0.50
--
2:00PM
UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jul
1.20
--
6:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Aug
162.00
--
6:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
Aug
7.40
--
September 8, 2013
4:29PM
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
5.10
--
September 9, 2013
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Aug
2.70
--
September 10, 2013
4:29PM
India
Imports YoY%
% Change
Aug
(6.20)
--
4:29PM
India
Exports YoY%
% Change
Aug
11.64
--
11:00AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
9.70
--
August 23, 2013
September 6, 2013
Existing home sales
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
11.4
6.0
4.0
2.0
(1.0) (0.6)
(0.7)
(4.0)
Mfg. PMI
60.0
7.3
7.2
Apr-13
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
8.1
(2.2)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

8.0
May-13
(2.8)
Jun-13
(0.1)
Jul-12
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
Source: CSO, Angel Research
7.3
7.3
Services PMI
58.0
7.3
56.0
5.7
4.8
4.7
4.9
54.0
52.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
50.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
(%)
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Exports yoy growth
15.0
46.0
Jun-12
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
48.0
May-12
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
(2.0)
Mar-13
4.7 4.8
1.9
0.6
Jan-13
5.1 5.4 5.2
Dec-12
6.0
3.5
2.5
2.0
Nov-12
6.5
Feb-13
7.5
Oct-12
9.2
7.7
Sep-12
8.6
8.4
8.0
9.9
Aug-12
9.5
9.3
2QFY10
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Aug-13
Jul-13
Jun-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Oct-12
3.00
Sep-12
Jul-13
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
4.00
Aug-12
(15.0)
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
0.0
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
144
2,809
1,674
1,923
13.7
13.7
6.8
7.6
21.2
19.0
4.0
3.5
20.0
19.6
1.8
1.6
United Phosphorus
Buy
148
225
6,551
10,091
11,302
16.5
16.5
19.2
22.5
7.7
6.6
1.2
1.1
17.0
17.2
0.8
0.6
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
256
285
4,379
3,418
3,892
14.5
14.5
18.5
20.4
13.9
12.6
3.3
2.7
26.6
23.8
1.3
1.1
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
66
3,301
13,409
15,106
11.8
11.6
13.1
15.4
5.0
4.3
0.8
0.7
17.9
17.8
0.4
0.3
Ashok Leyland
Buy
13
18
3,549
13,450
15,853
6.5
8.5
0.4
1.9
34.9
7.2
1.2
1.1
2.3
11.0
0.4
0.3
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
196
296
834
965
9.3
10.6
17.3
27.1
11.3
7.2
1.1
1.0
9.5
14.0
0.4
0.4
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
1,859
2,102
53,806
21,696
25,239
19.2
19.3
119.3
140.2
15.6
13.3
5.5
4.4
38.9
36.6
2.1
1.7
Bharat Forge
Neutral
231
5,379
6,198
6,793
14.6
14.9
14.5
17.3
15.9
13.4
2.1
1.9
13.6
14.7
1.0
0.9
Bosch India*
Accumulate
8,545
9,096
26,829
9,301
10,895
16.8
18.0
339.9
423.1
25.1
20.2
4.2
3.6
16.6
17.6
2.5
2.1
CEAT
Buy
119
170
407
5,159
5,628
9.3
9.0
43.5
48.6
2.7
2.4
0.5
0.4
18.4
17.5
0.2
0.2
Exide Industries
Accumulate
130
148
11,059
6,899
7,873
14.7
14.7
7.9
9.0
16.4
14.4
2.8
2.4
18.3
18.0
1.3
1.1
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,150
1,911
1,336
1,572
13.8
16.0
75.6
102.4
15.2
11.2
1.9
1.7
13.4
15.8
1.2
1.0
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,942
2,048
38,771
25,562
28,297
14.5
14.4
111.2
146.3
17.5
13.3
6.4
5.0
40.1
42.1
1.3
1.1
JK Tyre
Buy
92
154
379
7,972
8,754
7.1
7.1
37.5
44.0
2.5
2.1
0.4
0.3
16.4
16.6
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
871
1,103
53,638
43,371
49,049
12.3
12.5
63.6
72.5
13.7
12.0
2.9
2.5
23.3
22.2
0.9
0.8
1,398
1,648
42,216
45,862
52,647
11.2
11.1
94.6
109.9
14.8
12.7
2.0
1.8
14.4
14.6
0.7
0.6
Accumulate
228
242
13,407
28,442
31,914
8.4
8.7
13.0
16.1
17.6
14.1
4.6
3.6
29.4
28.6
0.6
0.5
Subros
Accumulate
20
23
122
1,230
1,398
10.5
10.5
2.3
3.8
8.8
5.4
0.4
0.4
4.8
7.6
0.3
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
291
355
78,438 215,043 240,077
13.5
13.7
38.7
44.1
7.5
6.6
1.9
1.5
28.5
25.1
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Accumulate
32
36
1,523
7,659
8,528
6.0
6.2
4.9
5.9
6.6
5.4
1.1
1.0
17.8
19.0
0.1
0.1
Maruti
Buy
Motherson Sumi
Capital Goods
ABB*
Reduce
494
442
10,465
8,037
9,087
5.8
6.9
12.2
17.0
40.5
29.1
3.9
3.7
9.8
13.1
1.3
1.1
BGR Energy
Neutral
100
724
3,541
4,041
11.8
10.7
21.1
22.9
4.8
4.4
0.6
0.5
21.8
19.5
0.5
0.4
BHEL
Neutral
121
29,591
43,140
39,692
16.8
15.9
20.2
17.1
6.0
7.1
1.3
1.2
23.1
17.2
0.5
0.6
Blue Star
Buy
143
208
1,283
2,941
3,099
3.4
4.2
6.0
9.3
23.9
15.4
3.0
2.6
12.9
18.0
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
89
103
5,732
13,446
15,272
6.7
7.6
6.6
8.9
13.5
10.1
1.5
1.3
11.4
14.0
0.5
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Neutral
17
140
3,312
3,555
9.0
9.0
4.5
6.5
3.8
2.6
0.2
0.2
5.6
7.7
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
25
36
640
7,709
8,399
6.2
6.9
5.1
8.1
4.9
3.1
0.5
0.5
16.6
21.5
0.3
0.2
Thermax
Neutral
582
6,934
5,832
6,397
9.1
9.6
28.8
32.9
20.2
17.7
3.3
2.9
17.2
17.3
1.1
1.0
1,161
1,361
21,790
11,581
13,009
17.6
19.3
63.9
81.5
18.2
14.2
2.7
2.5
15.6
18.2
1.6
1.4
Cement
ACC
Buy
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Cement
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
174
26,916
9,975
11,409
22.4
23.1
9.4
11.1
18.6
15.7
2.8
2.6
15.7
17.2
2.2
1.8
India Cements
Neutral
45
1,395
4,929
5,434
17.4
17.1
8.9
10.9
5.1
4.2
0.4
0.4
7.7
9.1
0.6
0.5
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
64
79
750
2,235
2,684
19.4
21.4
15.0
18.4
4.2
3.5
0.5
0.5
13.2
14.3
0.5
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
170
4,050
4,010
4,524
23.5
23.4
14.9
18.3
11.5
9.3
1.5
1.3
14.0
15.2
1.6
1.4
Shree Cement^
Neutral
3,950
13,762
6,607
7,520
27.5
26.7
322.8
374.3
12.2
10.6
3.0
2.4
27.8
25.6
1.4
1.1
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,699
46,576
22,021
25,274
22.0
21.6
99.5
113.3
17.1
15.0
2.7
2.3
16.7
16.6
2.1
1.9
53
60
841
1,912
2,131
21.0
21.5
5.0
5.5
10.6
9.7
0.8
0.7
8.8
7.6
1.7
1.8
129
1,715
1,824
2.4
6.2
(2.9)
(0.4)
(2.4)
(19.4)
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.5
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Accumulate
Consolidated Co
Neutral
IRB Infra
Buy
73
106
2,435
3,805
4,248
45.1
45.3
15.0
15.8
4.9
4.7
0.7
0.6
14.5
13.9
2.9
3.1
ITNL
Buy
127
156
2,459
7,423
7,970
27.5
28.7
30.3
32.0
4.2
4.0
0.6
0.5
15.0
14.0
2.4
2.5
IVRCL Infra
Neutral
11
348
5,673
5,892
8.1
8.4
1.4
1.8
7.9
6.2
0.2
0.2
2.0
2.6
0.5
0.5
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
33
41
7,312
12,946
14,897
24.7
25.6
1.2
2.7
26.8
12.3
0.5
0.5
2.0
4.3
2.4
2.2
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
804
1,002
74,381
68,946
78,040
10.0
10.0
49.0
55.2
16.4
14.6
2.3
2.1
14.9
15.3
1.2
1.1
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
21
30
540
6,167
6,945
8.0
8.2
2.7
3.6
7.9
5.8
0.2
0.2
2.7
3.6
0.4
0.4
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
26
860
12,726
14,226
8.2
8.2
0.9
1.0
30.2
25.3
0.3
0.3
1.0
1.2
0.6
0.6
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
72
100
1,089
2,462
2,731
10.6
10.6
5.9
6.7
12.2
10.8
1.2
1.1
10.2
10.5
0.7
0.7
Simplex Infra
Neutral
54
269
6,308
7,033
9.5
9.6
11.9
18.7
4.6
2.9
0.2
0.2
4.5
6.7
0.5
0.5
Unity Infra
Neutral
20
151
2,146
2,339
12.9
13.0
9.3
9.6
2.2
2.1
0.2
0.2
8.0
7.7
0.7
0.7
Allahabad Bank
Neutral
74
3,703
6,843
7,528
2.5
2.5
26.0
30.1
2.9
2.5
0.4
0.4
11.8
12.4
Andhra Bank
Reduce
60
51
3,343
4,868
5,390
2.4
2.5
12.3
16.6
4.9
3.6
0.5
0.4
7.9
10.0
Axis Bank
Accumulate
1,144
1,255
53,653
19,280
22,886
3.3
3.3
130.7
157.1
8.8
7.3
1.4
1.2
17.3
18.1
Bank of Baroda
Neutral
520
21,907
15,896
17,947
2.2
2.3
95.4
124.4
5.5
4.2
0.7
0.6
12.0
14.2
Bank of India
Neutral
180
10,705
14,482
16,069
2.3
2.2
55.0
62.2
3.3
2.9
0.5
0.4
13.7
13.9
Bank of Maharashtra
Neutral
40
2,639
4,529
4,780
3.0
2.8
12.3
11.8
3.2
3.4
0.5
0.5
16.5
14.1
Canara Bank
Neutral
250
11,066
11,454
12,378
2.0
2.0
52.4
60.5
4.8
4.1
0.5
0.5
9.8
10.4
Central Bank
Neutral
57
6,001
8,196
9,202
2.4
2.4
6.1
15.9
9.5
3.6
0.7
0.6
5.2
12.8
Corporation Bank
Neutral
279
4,259
5,641
6,083
2.0
2.0
82.7
98.1
3.4
2.8
0.4
0.4
12.6
13.5
Dena Bank
Neutral
48
1,672
3,307
3,531
2.2
2.4
17.5
21.6
2.7
2.2
0.3
0.3
11.9
13.2
Federal Bank
Neutral
342
5,841
2,798
3,250
3.0
3.0
38.1
51.9
9.0
6.6
0.9
0.8
9.8
12.3
Financials
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Financials
HDFC
Neutral
792
123,059
8,679
10,350
3.6
3.6
37.5
44.7
21.1
17.7
4.4
3.9
30.1
30.7
HDFC Bank
Buy
620
745
148,140
27,392
33,264
4.6
4.6
36.3
45.1
17.1
13.8
3.5
2.9
21.9
22.8
ICICI Bank
Buy
893
1,038
103,089
25,727
29,969
3.2
3.2
83.2
96.7
10.7
9.2
1.4
1.3
14.9
15.4
IDBI Bank
Neutral
61
8,090
9,518
10,468
2.0
2.0
15.5
22.1
3.9
2.8
0.4
0.4
10.2
13.3
Indian Bank
Neutral
71
3,034
5,940
6,396
2.7
2.7
24.9
32.9
2.8
2.2
0.3
0.3
10.3
12.4
IOB
Neutral
41
3,780
7,692
8,627
2.2
2.3
8.1
15.2
5.1
2.7
0.3
0.3
5.9
10.5
J & K Bank
Neutral
1,050
5,089
3,038
3,370
3.7
3.9
214.2
202.6
4.9
5.2
0.9
0.8
19.8
16.3
LIC Housing Finance
Neutral
178
8,973
2,180
2,732
2.4
2.5
26.3
32.1
6.8
5.5
1.2
1.1
19.0
19.9
Oriental Bank
Neutral
144
4,209
6,918
7,459
2.6
2.5
46.7
52.5
3.1
2.8
0.4
0.3
10.8
11.1
Punjab Natl.Bank
Neutral
540
19,075
20,766
23,515
3.4
3.4
135.0
164.8
4.0
3.3
0.6
0.5
14.4
15.7
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
21
2,781
1,800
2,023
2.7
2.7
3.7
4.2
5.6
5.0
0.9
0.8
16.2
16.2
St Bk of India
Neutral
1,621
110,861
66,417
76,734
3.0
3.0
227.4
284.8
7.1
5.7
1.0
0.9
15.4
17.1
Syndicate Bank
Neutral
71
4,256
6,740
7,512
2.5
2.5
21.0
23.5
3.4
3.0
0.4
0.4
12.6
12.8
UCO Bank
Neutral
57
4,294
6,770
7,017
2.8
2.6
14.8
15.5
3.9
3.7
0.7
0.5
14.4
13.5
Union Bank
Neutral
120
7,188
10,458
11,809
2.5
2.5
32.0
40.6
3.8
3.0
0.5
0.4
11.6
13.4
United Bank
Neutral
36
1,330
3,386
3,884
2.3
2.5
12.4
20.0
2.9
1.8
0.3
0.3
10.0
14.7
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
38
1,886
2,718
2,941
1.8
1.9
7.0
9.0
5.4
4.3
0.5
0.4
8.2
9.8
Yes Bank
Neutral
309
11,133
4,417
5,486
2.7
2.8
42.9
49.5
7.2
6.2
1.6
1.3
23.9
22.8
Asian Paints
Neutral
440
42,229
12,332
14,524
16.3
16.1
13.9
16.0
31.7
27.5
10.1
8.0
35.2
32.5
3.3
2.8
Britannia
Neutral
746
8,942
6,417
7,502
6.1
6.3
21.3
25.5
35.1
29.3
11.4
9.1
35.7
34.6
1.4
1.2
Colgate
Neutral
1,353
18,396
3,588
4,130
18.9
19.4
41.2
48.4
32.9
28.0
29.2
22.6
100.0
91.0
5.0
4.3
Dabur India
Neutral
172
30,052
7,183
8,297
16.8
16.9
5.4
6.3
32.2
27.4
11.3
9.0
39.2
36.7
4.2
3.6
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
4,019
16,903
3,617
4,259
16.1
16.4
122.2
148.7
32.9
27.0
10.2
8.2
34.1
33.7
4.2
3.5
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
895
30,458
7,801
9,017
16.2
15.9
25.1
29.7
35.6
30.2
7.7
6.4
24.9
24.2
4.0
3.4
HUL
Neutral
621
134,358
28,415
31,962
13.6
14.1
16.7
18.2
37.3
34.2
35.8
26.0
112.2
88.1
4.6
4.1
ITC
Neutral
334
264,283
34,294
39,991
36.8
37.0
11.3
13.3
29.6
25.1
9.8
7.9
36.1
34.9
7.4
6.3
Marico
Neutral
212
13,661
5,273
6,044
14.8
14.9
7.3
8.7
29.2
24.5
5.7
4.7
21.4
21.0
2.6
2.3
Nestle*
Neutral
5,087
49,043
9,330
10,860
21.8
21.9
123.3
149.7
41.3
34.0
20.3
14.8
56.4
50.3
5.3
4.5
Tata Global
Neutral
147
9,063
8,069
8,957
9.8
9.7
7.8
8.6
18.7
17.1
2.2
2.2
9.5
9.7
1.1
1.0
FMCG
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
IT
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
940
1,012
65,527
30,698
33,933
22.1
21.5
65.3
69.8
14.4
13.5
3.7
3.0
26.5
23.0
1.9
1.6
Hexaware*
Neutral
123
3,669
2,213
2,479
21.5
20.5
12.1
12.9
10.1
9.5
2.5
2.2
25.4
23.5
1.5
1.3
Infosys
Reduce
3,085
2,820
177,146
47,001
51,196
26.2
26.4
171.3
189.4
18.0
16.3
3.7
3.2
20.4
19.3
3.1
2.7
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
178
190
1,985
2,052
2,263
17.2
17.6
20.7
22.5
8.6
7.9
1.3
1.1
14.9
14.0
0.6
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Neutral
139
2,688
2,670
3,018
17.3
16.7
14.1
15.3
9.9
9.1
1.9
1.5
20.9
18.4
1.0
0.8
Mindtree
Neutral
1,001
4,159
2,768
3,006
19.7
19.9
103.1
105.3
9.7
9.5
2.3
1.9
24.8
20.3
1.2
1.0
Mphasis&
Neutral
400
8,398
6,372
6,852
18.0
18.2
38.0
43.5
10.5
9.2
1.5
1.3
14.3
14.2
0.8
0.7
NIIT
Sell
18
15
297
1,144
1,267
9.0
9.1
4.3
5.4
4.2
3.4
0.4
0.4
10.3
12.0
0.1
Persistent
Accumulate
529
568
2,116
1,533
1,715
22.2
22.5
49.2
56.8
10.7
9.3
1.8
1.5
16.4
16.1
1.0
0.8
TCS
Accumulate
1,819
2,060
355,989
79,005
91,576
29.7
30.0
88.6
103.1
20.5
17.6
6.5
5.2
31.5
29.2
4.3
3.6
Tech Mahindra
Neutral
1,329
30,876
8,102
8,709
19.7
19.2
107.5
117.0
12.4
11.4
2.6
2.2
21.2
18.9
3.8
3.5
Wipro
Reduce
467
435
115,041
42,196
45,890
21.0
21.6
28.3
31.2
16.5
15.0
3.5
2.9
20.7
19.4
2.3
1.9
D B Corp
Buy
252
302
4,614
1,783
1,968
25.2
26.8
14.6
17.2
17.3
14.6
4.5
3.8
23.9
24.2
2.5
2.2
HT Media
Buy
97
117
2,274
2,205
2,380
15.1
15.6
8.3
9.3
11.7
10.5
1.4
1.3
11.6
11.6
0.7
0.5
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
88
116
2,932
1,683
1,845
22.3
23.7
6.5
7.8
13.5
11.4
2.8
2.5
21.3
23.1
1.8
1.7
PVR
Neutral
356
1,412
1,359
1,540
17.3
17.4
17.2
21.6
20.6
16.5
2.1
1.9
10.3
12.0
1.5
1.3
Sun TV Network
Neutral
425
16,758
2,287
2,551
69.7
70.5
20.0
23.3
21.3
18.3
5.3
4.6
26.4
27.3
7.0
6.1
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
461
10,438
13,794
17,088
30.9
33.5
49.3
66.6
9.4
6.9
1.0
0.9
11.3
13.5
2.4
1.9
Coal India
Neutral
268
169,563
70,158
74,443
29.8
30.2
25.2
27.1
10.7
9.9
2.6
2.2
33.3
33.1
1.6
1.4
Electrosteel Castings
Accumulate
12
13
381
1,976
2,017
11.8
12.7
1.3
2.6
9.2
4.5
0.1
2.6
5.2
0.5
0.1
GMDC
Buy
95
115
3,016
1,701
1,985
47.8
48.8
17.4
20.6
5.5
4.6
1.1
0.9
20.7
20.9
1.3
1.0
Hind. Zinc
Buy
104
120
43,859
12,389
13,093
48.5
51.7
15.2
17.0
6.8
6.1
1.2
1.0
18.5
18.0
1.4
0.9
Hindalco
Neutral
91
17,509
89,352
93,672
8.8
9.2
13.4
15.0
6.8
6.1
0.5
0.5
7.3
7.6
0.5
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
519
12,538
44,605
47,040
15.7
16.0
62.5
75.6
8.3
6.9
0.7
0.6
8.5
9.6
0.8
0.7
MOIL
Accumulate
202
223
3,390
956
982
42.3
44.3
25.3
26.2
8.0
7.7
1.1
1.0
14.6
13.7
0.9
1.0
Monnet Ispat
Buy
101
125
643
2,326
2,709
21.4
23.1
33.3
43.1
3.0
2.3
0.2
0.2
8.3
9.9
1.3
1.0
Nalco
Neutral
NMDC
Accumulate
SAIL
Neutral
Media
Metals & Mining
27
7,036
7,656
7,988
13.1
13.5
2.6
2.6
10.7
10.4
0.6
0.6
5.5
5.5
0.4
0.4
109
123
43,096
10,718
11,514
66.6
64.5
15.5
16.1
7.0
6.8
1.4
1.3
21.2
20.0
1.9
1.8
44
18,317
44,060
54,786
9.4
11.5
5.2
7.2
8.5
6.2
0.4
0.4
5.2
6.8
0.7
0.6
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
136
155
11,815
79
92
26,667
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
3,817
5,781
12.1
17.7
27.0
29.6
5.0
4.6
0.6
0.5
12.9
12.5
3.9
2.6
44,493
45,599
22.4
23.9
16.8
19.2
4.7
4.1
0.5
0.4
10.5
10.9
0.5
0.5
Metals & Mining

Sesa Goa
Accumulate
Sterlite Inds
Buy
Tata Steel
Accumulate
241
260
9.7
10.8
30.9
47.6
7.8
5.1
0.7
0.6
9.6
13.4
0.5
0.5
Sarda
Accumulate
88
98
315
1,323
1,398
17.2
17.9
25.3
27.8
3.5
3.2
0.3
0.3
9.5
9.6
0.6
0.5
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
30
37
397
2,486
2,637
15.2
15.0
13.7
14.2
2.2
2.1
0.2
0.2
9.1
8.7
0.4
0.3
Accumulate
71
78
233
2,171
2,317
14.9
15.8
36.4
46.6
2.0
1.5
0.2
0.2
11.6
13.0
0.5
0.4
Cairn India
Buy
298
364
56,960
18,403
17,925
71.9
62.1
62.1
57.4
4.8
5.2
1.0
0.9
22.6
17.8
1.9
1.6
GAIL
Neutral
307
38,980
49,700
48,822
16.0
16.6
32.9
33.4
9.4
9.2
1.4
1.3
15.9
14.4
0.3
0.2
ONGC
Buy
275
352
235,233 169,963 196,050
35.3
36.6
33.4
38.7
8.2
7.1
1.4
1.2
17.7
18.2
1.1
0.8
Reliance Industries
Neutral
852
275,271 397,546 421,695
8.9
8.7
72.3
76.8
11.8
11.1
1.2
1.1
12.3
11.8
0.7
0.6
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
226
2,902
3,270
3,414
12.8
12.6
22.6
23.1
10.0
9.8
2.7
2.4
28.2
25.6
0.7
0.6
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
272
3,809
3,656
4,456
21.5
18.6
25.7
26.8
10.6
10.2
2.2
1.9
22.1
19.6
1.1
0.8
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Accumulate
124
135
9,270
39,449
43,315
5.3
5.9
14.1
16.9
8.8
7.3
1.8
1.5
21.7
21.9
0.3
0.3
55
64
3,070
1,171
1,287
91.9
91.9
10.1
11.3
5.4
4.8
0.9
0.8
17.3
16.8
2.1
1.7
Alembic Pharma
Neutral
161
3,031
1,736
2,008
17.1
18.9
10.7
13.9
15.0
11.6
4.7
3.5
35.0
34.7
1.8
1.5
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
187
281
5,446
6,641
7,637
15.9
15.9
17.3
20.6
10.8
9.1
1.7
1.4
19.5
18.9
1.3
1.1
Aventis*
Neutral
2,505
5,769
1,682
1,917
15.6
15.6
91.9
101.7
27.3
24.6
3.8
3.8
15.6
17.1
2.9
2.4
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
676
894
13,845
7,123
8,367
15.5
15.7
37.3
44.7
18.1
15.1
3.8
3.2
22.9
22.9
2.3
1.9
Cipla
Accumulate
424
477
34,012
9,274
10,796
23.1
23.1
21.0
23.8
20.2
17.8
3.2
2.8
17.2
16.8
3.4
2.8
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
2,240
2,535
38,074
13,377
15,350
20.4
20.1
112.1
126.6
20.0
17.7
4.3
3.5
23.5
21.8
2.9
2.5
Dishman Pharma
Buy
48
73
390
1,394
1,534
22.5
22.4
14.8
16.6
3.3
2.9
0.3
0.3
10.8
11.0
0.9
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,275
19,269
2,744
2,964
22.0
23.4
59.2
66.6
38.4
34.2
9.6
9.2
24.9
27.5
6.2
5.7
Indoco Remedies
Buy
65
78
594
747
906
15.3
15.3
5.9
7.6
10.9
8.5
1.3
1.2
12.5
14.4
1.0
0.9
Ipca labs
Neutral
655
8,260
3,246
3,830
20.5
21.7
36.2
44.9
18.1
14.6
4.2
3.4
26.1
25.7
2.7
2.3
Lupin
Accumulate
839
904
37,562
11,576
13,855
22.0
22.0
35.8
43.0
23.4
19.5
5.7
4.5
27.1
25.8
3.3
2.8
Ranbaxy*
Accumulate
398
426
16,849
10,400
11,331
6.6
8.4
11.4
15.2
34.9
26.2
3.7
3.2
11.1
13.1
1.7
1.5
Sun Pharma
Neutral
547
113,372
13,509
15,846
41.0
41.0
16.5
19.9
33.2
27.5
6.7
5.5
22.0
22.0
7.8
6.5
Buy
23,421 140,917 151,537
Power
GIPCL
Accumulate
57
65
859
1,444
1,482
33.4
33.0
13.7
14.8
4.2
3.8
0.5
0.4
12.3
12.0
0.7
0.4
NTPC
Accumulate
144
163
118,611
75,046
81,780
23.5
23.9
12.7
13.6
11.3
10.6
1.3
1.2
12.2
12.0
2.3
2.2
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Real Estate
DLF
Buy
150
175
26,636
8,293
9,622
36.5
36.1
5.7
6.7
26.2
22.2
0.9
0.9
3.7
4.1
5.3
4.4
MLIFE
Accumulate
441
483
1,800
888
1,002
27.0
29.9
33.9
42.1
13.0
10.5
1.3
1.2
9.9
11.2
2.6
2.3
Bharti Airtel
Neutral
346
138,470
83,535
92,173
32.0
33.1
9.2
12.9
37.7
26.8
2.5
2.3
6.8
8.9
2.4
2.1
Idea Cellular
Neutral
169
56,043
25,640
28,459
26.9
27.2
4.0
4.9
42.2
34.2
3.6
3.2
8.4
9.4
2.6
2.3
Rcom
Neutral
132
27,214
22,751
24,628
30.9
31.3
3.4
5.3
38.5
25.0
0.8
0.8
2.1
3.1
2.8
2.4
Telecom
Others
Abbott India*
Buy
1,361
1,659
2,892
1,863
2,081
11.8
12.4
71.2
83.0
19.1
16.4
3.8
3.3
21.6
21.5
1.3
1.0
Bajaj Electricals
Accumulate
162
184
1,615
3,885
4,472
4.0
5.8
6.8
15.4
24.0
10.5
2.1
1.8
8.8
17.3
0.4
0.4
Cera Sanitaryware
Buy
509
613
644
631
797
14.5
13.7
42.6
51.1
12.0
10.0
2.8
2.3
26.5
25.3
1.0
0.8
Cravatex
Buy
270
459
70
248
284
6.5
7.3
27.2
38.2
10.0
7.1
1.6
1.3
15.7
18.5
0.4
0.4
Finolex Cables
Buy
54
68
828
2,563
2,899
9.8
9.8
10.1
11.3
5.4
4.8
0.8
0.7
14.3
13.8
0.2
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
282
349
368
2,304
2,649
3.1
3.6
28.0
43.7
10.1
6.5
0.3
0.3
3.1
4.7
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
321
345
740
1,458
1,542
8.3
9.0
32.3
37.0
9.9
8.7
1.8
1.6
19.5
19.3
0.3
0.3
Hitachi
Buy
108
153
294
1,080
1,199
8.9
9.1
18.3
19.1
5.9
5.7
1.0
0.9
19.2
17.0
0.4
0.3
Honeywell Automation* Neutral
2,337
2,066
1,842
2,131
7.7
7.8
111.1
130.9
21.0
17.9
2.7
2.3
13.3
13.9
1.0
0.9
IFB Agro
Accumulate
144
156
129
491
642
12.3
13.8
35.0
50.9
4.1
2.8
0.7
0.6
18.2
21.6
0.2
0.1
ITD Cementation
Buy
158
194
182
1,365
1,502
10.9
11.2
18.2
28.0
8.7
5.6
0.4
0.4
5.1
7.4
0.6
0.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Buy
168
199
2,797
1,244
1,523
14.1
14.2
5.9
10.0
28.4
16.9
3.4
3.0
12.7
18.8
2.6
2.0
MRF
Accumulate
14,137
16,218
5,995
11,799
12,587
14.1
13.5 1,792.0 1,802.0
7.9
7.8
1.7
1.4
23.5
19.2
0.7
0.6
Page Industries
Accumulate
4,336
4,669
4,836
1,059
1,296
19.5
19.8
125.0
155.6
34.7
27.9
17.2
12.6
56.3
52.2
4.7
3.8
Relaxo Footwears
Buy
739
981
887
1,196
1,401
11.9
12.6
55.6
75.4
13.3
9.8
3.2
2.4
27.1
28.1
0.9
0.7
Siyaram Silk Mills
Accumulate
202
228
189
1,158
1,322
10.6
11.0
60.5
75.9
3.3
2.7
0.5
0.4
16.8
18.1
0.4
0.3
Styrolution ABS India*
Buy
356
492
626
1,007
1,108
8.4
8.7
30.3
35.1
11.8
10.1
1.3
1.2
11.7
12.2
0.6
0.5
TAJ GVK
Buy
56
108
353
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.1
6.2
0.9
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.5
1.2
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
255
371
393
814
849
17.0
17.6
64.6
69.2
4.0
3.7
0.5
0.5
14.5
13.8
0.1
(0.1)
TTK Healthcare
Accumulate
549
632
427
416
481
4.5
6.1
16.2
25.3
33.9
21.7
4.2
3.7
12.6
18.1
0.9
0.8
Tree House
Accumulate
261
297
939
153
194
53.0
52.8
12.4
15.6
21.1
16.7
2.5
2.2
11.8
13.1
6.3
4.8
TVS Srichakra
Buy
United Spirits
Neutral
Vesuvius India*
Buy
167
230
128
1,591
1,720
6.1
6.4
30.5
38.3
5.5
4.4
0.7
0.6
13.5
15.5
0.3
0.2
2,368
34,416
12,294
14,162
12.0
12.0
42.1
67.7
56.3
35.0
4.0
3.6
9.1
10.7
3.1
2.7
355
439
721
600
638
20.1
19.4
35.7
36.6
10.0
9.7
1.8
1.6
19.4
17.1
1.0
0.9
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
85
117
562
2,042
2,363
14.6
14.8
12.3
16.5
6.9
5.2
0.5
0.5
7.6
9.4
0.7
0.6
Others
HSIL
Buy
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on August 13, 2013
Market Outlook
August 14, 2013
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Market Outlook

August 14, 2013

OIL & GAS

Meanwhile, Indian markets rose sharply higher to one-week highs on Tuesday,

Import duty on gold hiked by 200bp to 10%

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

Net Inflows (August 12, 2013)

FII Derivatives (August 13, 2013)

Import duty on gold hiked by 200bp to 10%

Workers union at Bajaj Autos Chakan plant calls off strike

Tata Steel (CMP: `241/ TP: Under Review/ Upside: -)

9.7 1,918 19.7

10.8 3,101 31.9

Hindalco (CMP: `91/ TP: -/ Upside :-)

8.7 2,513 13.1

9.1 2,821 14.7

Gujarat State Petronet (CMP: `55/ TP: Under Review)

Sadbhav Engineering (CMP: `73/ TP: Under Review)

IVRCL (CMP: `11/ TP: Under Review)

CCCL (CMP: `7/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

(54) (2.9) (10.6)

Cravatex (CMP: `270/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

9.8 2,410 5.5

11.8 2,289 7.5

LIC Housing (CMP: `178/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Nalco (CMP: `27/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

Simplex Infrastructures (CMP: `54/ TP: -/ Upside: -)

P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

Quarterly Bloomberg Consensus Estimate

EBITDA margin (%)

HDIL Consolidated (14/08/2013)

EBITDA margin (%)

EBITDA margin (%)

LIC Housing Finance (14/08/2013)

Economic and Political News

Economists expect CAD to be between 4.25-4.55% of GDP in FY2014

NMDC's Legacy Iron cancels AUD25mn rights issue

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Country Event Description

August 14, 2013

August 15, 2013

August 16, 2013

Jobless claims change

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

Producer Price Index (mom)

Initial Jobless claims

Consumer price index (mom)

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

August 21, 2013

August 22, 2013

Germany PMI Services

Germany PMI Manufacturing

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

New home sales

August 27, 2013

August 29, 2013

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

August 30, 2013

Qtrly GDP YoY%