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Outline
z Why use simulation models? z Ways to study a system z Important issues in modelling z Examples z Keys to success
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Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt
Physical model
Mathematical model
Analytical solution
Simulation
Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt
System
System
Physical model
Mathematical model
Analytical solution
Simulation
z A system is defined to be a collection of entities, e.g., people or machines, that act and interact together toward the accomplishment of some logical end z In practice, what is meant by the system depends on the objective of a particular study
Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt
System
Model
Physical model
Mathematical model
Analytical solution
Simulation
z Model = a simplified mathematical representation of the system z Analytical solution vs. simulation z Simulation model
Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt
System
Modelling
z z z z z z
Physical model
Mathematical model
Start at the end Problem orientation Model simple; think complicated Start small: and add Avoid mega models Let the model decide the input
Analytical solution
Simulation
Input
Simulation model
Results
M. Pidd: Just Modeling Through: A Rough Guide to Modeling, Interfaces 29: 2 March- April 1999 (pp. 118-132)
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z Static vs. dynamic z Deterministic vs. stochastic z Continuous vs. discrete z Open vs. closed
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Validity:
Credibility:
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Scheduled Flights Maintenance
FLYT2 -model
Snag Online Waiting for maintenance
Airborne
Turnaround
z Dynamic, stochastic, discrete-event, closed z Rule based decision making z Scenario specified as input and parameters
500 450 400 50 40 30 20 10 0 300 A n t a ll f ly g e r
60
F ly t im e r p e r u k e
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 Tid (uker) 150 Flytimer per uke (totalt) Flytimer per uke (deployert) 200 250 Flytimer per uke (hjemme) Flygere med 180t (10% utetid)
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DIVMOD
z Dynamic, deterministic, discrete-event, open z All major decisions made interactively z Scenario describes initial compositions and operational goal z Simple to construct a meaningful sequence of events z Outcomes may reflect opinion of current user z Trade-off between quality and scientific reproducibility
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Keys to success
z z z z Problem orientation Simplicity Reliability, validity and credibility Output analysis
z Availability of input data and validation data z Skills in modelling and simulation z Combining simulation results