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Introduction to Simulation and Modelling


Else Helene Feet

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Outline
z Why use simulation models? z Ways to study a system z Important issues in modelling z Examples z Keys to success

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Why use simulation models?

z Credible analysis of complex real life problems

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Ways to study a system


System

Experiment with the actual system

Experiment with a model of the system

Physical model

Mathematical model

Analytical solution

Simulation

Law and Kelton: Simulation Modeling and analysis, McGraw-Hill,1991

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System

System

Experiment with the actual system

Experiment with a model of the system

Physical model

Mathematical model

Analytical solution

Simulation

z A system is defined to be a collection of entities, e.g., people or machines, that act and interact together toward the accomplishment of some logical end z In practice, what is meant by the system depends on the objective of a particular study

Law and Kelton: Simulation Modeling and analysis, McGraw-Hill,1991

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System

Model

Experiment with the actual system

Experiment with a model of the system

Physical model

Mathematical model

Analytical solution

Simulation

z Model = a simplified mathematical representation of the system z Analytical solution vs. simulation z Simulation model

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System

Modelling
z z z z z z

Experiment with the actual system

Experiment with a model of the system

Physical model

Mathematical model

Start at the end Problem orientation Model simple; think complicated Start small: and add Avoid mega models Let the model decide the input

Analytical solution

Simulation

Input

Simulation model

Results

M. Pidd: Just Modeling Through: A Rough Guide to Modeling, Interfaces 29: 2 March- April 1999 (pp. 118-132)

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Classification of simulation models

z Static vs. dynamic z Deterministic vs. stochastic z Continuous vs. discrete z Open vs. closed

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Verification, Validation and Credibility


Verification: Determining that the simulation computer program performs as intended Is the model an accurate representation of the actual system being studied? Is the simulation model and its results accepted by the decision makers as credible?

Validity:

Credibility:

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Conducting experiments and use of scenarios

z Experimental design z Scenarios

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Scheduled Flights Maintenance

FLYT2 -model
Snag Online Waiting for maintenance

Airborne

Turnaround

z Dynamic, stochastic, discrete-event, closed z Rule based decision making z Scenario specified as input and parameters
500 450 400 50 40 30 20 10 0 300 A n t a ll f ly g e r

6 planes deployed for 6 months

60

z Fast, statistically significant results z Decision making sometimes non-optimal

F ly t im e r p e r u k e

350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 0 50 100 Tid (uker) 150 Flytimer per uke (totalt) Flytimer per uke (deployert) 200 250 Flytimer per uke (hjemme) Flygere med 180t (10% utetid)

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DIVMOD

z Dynamic, deterministic, discrete-event, open z All major decisions made interactively z Scenario describes initial compositions and operational goal z Simple to construct a meaningful sequence of events z Outcomes may reflect opinion of current user z Trade-off between quality and scientific reproducibility

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Keys to success
z z z z Problem orientation Simplicity Reliability, validity and credibility Output analysis

z Availability of input data and validation data z Skills in modelling and simulation z Combining simulation results