Month

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

Demand 3 Month Moving Avg. 4 Month Moving Avg. 3 Month Weighted Moving Avg.
280
288
340
266
278
275.6666667
295
283
282.25
284.1666667
330
302
287.6666667
287.75
293.6666667
310
302.3333333
293.25
304.8333333
320
303
305
302.5
305.1666667
310
328
313.6666667
310.75
316.6666667
309
313.3333333
312.5
314.3333333
300
315
317.3333333
313.75
315.1666667
320
314.6666667
318
316.5
290
332
322.3333333
319
325.1666667
280
310
320.6666667
319.25
319
308
316.6666667
317.5
312.6666667
270
320
312.6666667
317.5
314.3333333

Estimation of t

260
250
1

New Weights New Weighted Moving Avg.

0.2
0.3
275.6666667
0.5
284.1666667
275.4
293.6666667
284.9
304.8333333
292.7
305.1666667
304.6
316.6666667
304.9
314.3333333
316.9
315.1666667
313.5
316.5
315.8
325.1666667
319
312.6666667
314.3333333

Estimation of trends with the help of the moving average method

10

11

12

Demand
3 Month Moving Avg
4 Month Moving Avg
3 Month Weighted Moving Avg

13

14

15

h Moving Avg

h Moving Avg

h Weighted Moving Avg

Forecasting
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Demand 3 Month Moving average

4 Month Moving average
5 Month Moving average
220
228
217
221.6666667
219
221.3333333
221
258
231.3333333
230.5
228.4
241
239.3333333
233.75
232.6
239
246
239.25
234.8
244
241.3333333
245.5
240.2
256
246.3333333
245
247.6
260
253.3333333
249.75
248
265
260.3333333
256.25
252.8

270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
1

10

11

3 Month Weighted Moving Avg

4 Month Weighted Moving Avg

221.1666667
219.8333333
238.1666667
243
242.8333333
241.8333333
249.1666667
256
261.8333333

Demand
3 Month Moving Average
4 Month Moving Average
5 Month Moving Average
3 Month Weighted Moving Avg
4 Month Weighted Moving Avg

11

12

220.3
235.1
239.3
241.4
243.3
247.5
253.5
259.6

Exponential Smoothing
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

Demand
213
201
198
207
220
232
210
217
212
225

For
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
|SUM|
MAD

0.2
Demand
213
201
198
207
220
232
210
217
212
225

Forecast
208
209
207.4
205.52
205.816
208.6528
213.3222
212.6578
213.5262
213.221

Error
5
8
9.4
1.48
14.184
23.3472
3.32224
4.342208
1.526234
11.77901
82.38089
8.238089

Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
|SUM|
MAD
MSE
MAPE
42.74043

For
Demand
213
201
198
207
220
232
210
217
212
225

111.8364
4.274043

0.5
Forecast
208
210.5
205.75
201.875
204.4375
212.2188
222.1094
216.0547
216.5273
214.2637

Error
5
9.5
7.75
5.125
15.5625
19.78125
12.10938
0.945313
4.527344
10.73633
91.03711 SUM
9.103711
91.03711

Error*Error
25
90.25
60.0625
26.265625
242.1914063
391.2978516
146.6369629
0.893615723
20.49684143
115.2687416
1118.363544

For
Month
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
|SUM|
MAD

0.8
Demand
213
201
198
207
220
232
210
217
212
225

Forecast
208
212
203.2
199.04
205.408
217.0816
229.0163
213.8033
216.3607
212.8721

Error
5
11
5.2
7.96
14.592
14.9184
19.01632
3.196736
4.360653
12.12787
97.37198
9.737198

For = 0.2
Month
Demand
0
208
1
213
2
201
3
198
4
207
5
220
6
232
7
210
8
217
9
212
10
225

Forecast
#N/A
208
209
207.4
205.52
205.816
208.6528
213.3222
212.6578
213.5262
213.221

For = 0.5
Month
Demand
0
208
1
213
2
201
3
198
4
207
5
220
6
232
7
210
8
217
9
212
10
225

Forecast
#N/A
208
210.5
205.75
201.875
204.4375
212.2188
222.1094
216.0547
216.5273
214.2637

For = 0.5
Month
Demand
0
208
1
213
2
201
3
198
4
207
5
220
6
232
7
210
8
217
9
212
10
225

Forecast
#N/A
208
212
203.2
199.04
205.408
217.0816
229.0163
213.8033
216.3607
212.8721

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Sales (In 1000) 3 Monthly Moving Average 4 Monthly Moving Average

20
14
35
19
19
17.66666667
30
31
17.33333333
18
18
23
20.75
25
15
19.25
21.75
13
21.33333333
20.75
22
15.33333333
19.25
20
27
16.66666667
17
20
20.66666667
19.25
15
13
23
20.5
Sales (In 1000's)

Month

10
5
0
1

3 Monthly Weighted Moving Average

4 Monthly Weighted Moving Average

Estimation of Trend With Moving Average Method

17.5
18.16666667
25
22.5
18.66666667
14.5
17.83333333
23
22.66666667

18.1
23.3
22.2
19.5
16.4
17.5
21.5
21.8

Actual Sales

3 Monthly Mov

4 Monthly Mov

3 Monthly Weig

4 Monthly Weig

7
Months

10

11

12

Actual Sales
3 Monthly Moving Avg
4 Monthly Moving Avg.
3 Monthly Weighted Moving Avg
4 Monthly Weighted Moving Avg

Year

S. No. (x)
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

Sales (y) XY
82
80
90
92
83
94
99
92

x*x
0
80
180
276
332
470
594
644

yt
0
1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64

82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100

Total
a
b
x bar
y bar
Yt

28
82
2
3.5
89
84

712

2576

140

712

Year

I
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006

AVERAGE
Seasonal Index

II
18
27
17
30
21
26
21
29
19
28
22
30
24
32
21
29
20.375
28.875
0.91573 1.297753

Quarter
III

IV
TOTAL
23
14
82
20
13
80
23
20
90
26
16
92
22
14
83
26
16
94
24
19
99
29
13
92
24.125
15.625
22.25
1.08427 0.702247

Simple Regression Analysis

No. of Salesmen(x)
5
8
6
8
9
3
5
4
6
6
Total
Yc
Yc

No. of Cars Booked(y)

xy
132
160
148
156
168
102
142
98
152
142

x*x
660
1280
888
1248
1512
306
710
392
912
852

25
64
36
64
81
9
25
16
36
36

72.5 + 11.25X

200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0

185
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.906550835
0.821834416
0.799563718
10.47616342
10

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

1
8
9
Coefficients

Intercept
No. of Salesmen(x)

SS
4050
878
4928

MS
F
Significance F
4050 36.90205 0.000298
109.75

Standard Error t Stat

P-value Lower 95%
72.5 11.59499 6.252702 0.000245 45.76191
11.25 1.851942 6.074706 0.000298 6.979415

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation Predicted No. of Cars Booked(y)
Residuals
Standard Residuals
1
128.75
3.25 0.329047
2
162.5
-2.5 -0.25311
3
140
8 0.809961
4
162.5
-6.5 -0.65809
5
173.75
-5.75 -0.58216
6
106.25
-4.25 -0.43029

7
8
9
10

128.75
117.5
140
140

13.25 1.341498
-19.5 -1.97428
12 1.214941
2 0.20249

Regression Graph
y = 11.25x + 72.5

132 160 148 156 168 102

142 98 152 142
Linear (132 160 148 156
168 102 142 98 152 142)

10

ignificance F

Upper 95.0%
Upper 95%Lower 95.0% 99.23809
99.23809 45.76191 15.52058
15.52058 6.979415

Multiple Regression Analysis

Performance Evaluation (Y)

Aptitude Test Score

Prior Experience

28
74
4
33
87
11
21
69
4
40
69
9
38
81
7
46
97
10
If an employee scored 83 in the aptitude test and prior experience of 7, what performance evaluation would be expected ?
Yc
4.871 + 0.211X1 + 1.689X2
Yc
34.207
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.765994858
0.586748122
0.311246871
7.435315585
6

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Aptitude Test Score
Prior Experience

2
3
5
Coefficients
4.870954314
0.211208242
1.689509835

SS
MS
F
Significance F
235.4815798 117.7408 2.129748 0.265658
165.8517536 55.28392
401.3333333
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value Lower 95%
25.89727572 0.188088 0.862811 -77.5457
0.396316025 0.532929 0.631034 -1.05005
1.457638946 1.159073 0.330304 -2.94935

on would be expected ?

ignificance F

Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%
87.28764 -77.5457 87.28764
1.472463 -1.05005 1.472463
6.328368 -2.94935 6.328368

Straight Line Trend Estimation Using Linear Regression

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11

Sales (In $ 1000) Estimated Value

300
292.6363636
295
306.6060606
450
330
320.5757576
430
345
334.5454545
410
320
348.5151515
390
370
362.4848485
370
380
376.4545455
350
400
390.4242424
385
404.3939394
330
430
418.3636364
310
432.3333333
290
Sales Volume

Time (t)

$
292636.4
306606.1
320575.8
334545.5
348515.2
362484.8
376454.5
390424.2
404393.9
418363.6
432333.3

270
250
1

Actual VS Estimated Sales

Sales (In $ 1000)
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
3100 4
50
0
0

y = 13.97x + 278.67

10

Time Period
2

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.946476235
R Square
0.895817263
Adjusted R Square
0.882794421
Standard Error 15.29879179
Observations
10
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
Time (t)

1
8
9
Coefficients
278.6666667
13.96969697

SS
MS
F
Significance F
16100.07576 16100.08 68.78815 3.37E-05
1872.424242 234.053
17972.5
Standard Error
t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
10.45106442 26.66395 4.21E-09 254.5665 302.7669 254.5665
1.684341541 8.293862 3.37E-05 10.0856 17.8538 10.0856

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted Sales (In $ 1000) Residuals Standard Residuals

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

292.6363636
306.6060606
320.5757576
334.5454545
348.5151515
362.4848485
376.4545455
390.4242424
404.3939394
418.3636364

7.363636364
-11.60606061
9.424242424
10.45454545
-28.51515152
7.515151515
3.545454545
9.575757576
-19.39393939
11.63636364

0.510518
-0.80464
0.65338
0.72481
-1.97695
0.521023
0.245805
0.663884
-1.34458
0.806745

ated Sales

ales (In $ 1000)

y = 13.97x + 278.67
Sales (In $ 1000)
Estimated Value
Series1
Linear (Series1)
10

11

10

Upper 95.0%
302.7669
17.8538

12

Sales Volume

Multiple Regression
Week
Sales (In 1000 Rs.) (Y)
1
72
2
76
3
78
4
70
5
68
6
80
7
82
8
65
9
62
10
90
11

Advertising Expenditure on TV and Radio (X1)

12
11
15
10
11
16
14
8
8
18
95

Actual Sales VS Estimated Sales

230
210
190
170
150
130
110

90
Equation 47.164 + 1.599X1 + 1.148X2
SUMMARY OUTPUT
70

50
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.980326323
R Square
0.961039699
Adjusted R Square
0.949908185
Standard Error
1.910940432
Observations
10

Time (In Weeks)

ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
2
7
9

630.5381466
25.56185335
656.1

Coefficients
Standard Error
Intercept
47.16494227
Advertising Expenditure
1.599040336
on TV and Radio (X1)
Advertising Expenditure
1.148747938
on Store Displays in malls (X2)

2.470414433
0.280963057
0.30524885

RESIDUAL OUTPUT
Observation
Predicted Sales (In 1000 Rs.) (Y)
1
72.09716599
2
73.94436947
3
78.04303494

Residuals
-0.097165992
2.055630529
-0.043034938

4
5
6
7
8
9
10

68.89908532
68.20062978
83.08831909
83.33648223
64.55225671
63.40350877
87.4351477

1.10091468
-0.20062978
-3.088319088
-1.336482231
0.44774329
-1.403508772
2.564852302

Advertising Expenditure on Store Displays in malls (X2)

5
8
6
5
3
9
12
4
3
10
15

Sales VS Estimated Sales

Estimate
72.09716599
73.94436947
78.04303494
68.89908532
68.20062978
83.08831909
83.33648223
64.55225671
63.40350877
87.4351477
216.3049933

Sales (In 1000 Rs.) (Y)

Estimate

10

11

e (In Weeks)

MS

t Stat

F
Significance F
315.2690733 86.33503537 1.17E-05
3.651693336

P-value
Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
19.09191496 2.69229E-07 41.32334 53.00654 41.32334
5.691283238 0.00074201 0.934668 2.263412 0.934668
3.763316185 0.007044246 0.426949 1.870547 0.426949

Standard Residuals
-0.057655318
1.219748083
-0.025535612

0.653248992
-0.119047555
-1.832513788
-0.793027549
0.26567713
-0.832799041
1.521904658

Upper 95.0%
53.00654
2.263412
1.870547