CLIMATOLOGY

Indian Summer Monsoon

C S Tomar Sc C Satellite Application Unit National Satellite Meteorological Centre

Indian Summer /Southwest Monsoon

In meteorological, monsoon or monsoonal effect has come to mean the seasonal reversal of wind and in that sense the term has been used to describe such changes even in higher latitudes and stratospheric winds.

Winds are southwesterly over the Bay and the Arabian Sea in July compared to northeasterly in January.
The monsoon air mass is maritime and moist in great depth as against the winter dry continental air. Temperatures in the troposphere decrease to north in winter, while monsoon reverses this gradient. The westerly jet stream of the other seasons is replaced by the easterly jet stream. The meridional circulation of the Hadley Cell is replaced over the Peninsula by southerlies in the lower troposphere and northerlies aloft. As a rough estimate nearly half of the tropics has this type of climate.

Indian Summer /Southwest Monsoon

Some early definitions: Arab traders knew the seasonal reversal of winds over the Indian Ocean and Arabian sea and called it MAUSAM simply means 'Season'. Monsoon phenomena is just like land and sea breeze but on larger scale. A systems of winds blowing from Ocean to continents during the summer and a system of dry winds blowing from continents to Ocean during the winter. Hadly Hypothesis (1686): main cause of monsoon is deferential heating of land and Ocean. Hadly & Hadly (1735): causes of planetry scale monsoon are: deferential heating of land and Ocean and Defelection of winds due to rotation of earth.

Indian Summer /Southwest Monsoon

Ramage (1971): The most satisfactory criteria for determining whether a region is monsoonal have been developed by Ramage (1971). The criteria for identification of monsoon over the globe: The shift in the prevailing winds direction between Jan & July should at least 120degree. Average frequency of prevailing wind direction exceeds 40% i.e. difference/shift in the direction should be persistent in nature. Mean resultant wind speed in at least one of the month exceeds 3m/s. Fewer than one cyclone- anticyclone alternation occurs in every two year either in January or July in a 5x5degree lat/long grid.

The monsoon area defined by Ramage, is enclosed between 35N and 25S and between 30W and 170E.

Observed average rainfall in January and July. The box indicates the monsoonal region as defined by Ramage 1971.

Planetary Aspects of Monsoon

Two pairs of heat source & sinks are the large scale thermal causes of the formation of Asiatic monsoon circulation. Heat source around north India & Bay of Bengal and heat sink over Madagascar. Heat source around South China Sea and heat sink over Australia. South Indian Ocean trade winds (southeasterly) after crossing equator turns into monsoonal westerlies in the north Indian ocean. El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affect monsoon on planetary scale (In general, an inverse relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon rainfall has been observed). The IOD index, is a normalized Sea Surface Temperature anomaly difference between the western and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. Above normal rainfall anomalies over India during the summer monsoon season have been related to a positive IOD index (Saji et. al., 1999).

Climatic Patterns during SW Monsoon

Mean Sea Level Pressure

The winter circulations of N.H. undergo vast change during the summer. The intense Siberian High of winter is replaced by an extended low pressure area covering SE-Asia, North India, west Asia and the Sahara High with intense heat low over Pakistan and n/hood area. The Aleution Low and Icelandic Low are replaced by High pressure areas. Development of a (heat) low due to increased heating over India starts in March itself, with slightly higher pressures over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. Monsoon activity is maximum in July when the low pressure area extending from north Africa to northeast Siberia is most intense. Its main centre is over north Baluchistan and neighbourhood. A trough lies over north India with axis from Sriganganagar to the Head Bay, which is referred to as the 'monsoon trough'. Pressure gradient is strong south of this trough.

January

July

Mean Wind Flow - July - 850 mb

Mean Sea Level Pressure

The South Indian Ocean 'High' (Mascarene High) has strengthened (normal -1025hPa) and is centered at about 30S/50E. Weak ridges are present in the Arabian Sea off the west coast of India and in the Bay off Tennaserim coast and over Burma. The weak trough of the pre-monsoon months in the eastern Peninsula now lies just off the east coast of the south Peninsular India; it persists through the monsoon months and is more pronounced in September.

To summarize, the chief features of the surface pressure distribution in the monsoon season are: the heat low over Pakistan, the monsoon trough from Sriganganagar to the Head Bay and the strong pressure gradient to the south.

Surface Winds
The monsoon trough line runs at surface level from Sriganganagar to Kolkata through Allahabad (normal position).
In July, easterlies prevail over the country to the north of the through line. To the south of this line, southerlies occur over West Bengal and southwesterlies to westerlies elsewhere. Nearer the west coast of the Peninsula, the direction is westsouthwest to west, except along the Kerala coast where north westerlies are observed. Strongest winds are in the southwest Arabian Sea. About 25kts (mean wind speed) west of 68E and between 10N and 20N. Mean speeds over land are not more than 10kt. They are between 10kt and 20kt along the west coast. Over most of the Bay and the rest of the Arabian Sea, the speed is about 15kt.

Upper Air Winds (July)

In July, the monsoon trough runs from Delhi to Kolkata at 900 mb. The monsoon trough shifts south with height and is near about 23N at 700 mb but becomes diffuse above 500 mb over the Peninsula. Westsouthwesterly to westnorthwesterly winds prevail to the south of it and southeasterly winds to north. Westerly winds over the Peninsula increase with height from ground and reach a maximum between 900 and 800 mb. This level is near 900 mb along the west coast and increases to 800 mb in the eastern Peninsula. Maximum speeds are between 20 and 25 kt. A similar wind maximum near 900 mb has also been found in the Arabian Sea south of 20N, particularly in the western portions. At 900mb a weak trough over Pakistan. This trough is not present at 700 mb; instead the subtropical high from the west extends into northwest India. Thus the warm surface low over Pakistan and neighbourhood is replaced by the subtropical high at 700 mb.

 At 500 mb, this ridge, the easterlies over northern India and a trough from east central Arabian Sea to Orissa are the chief features. Winds at this level are weak. At 300 mb, apart from the western ridge along 30N over northwest India and Pakistan, winds are easterly over the whole country. Between 200 mb and 100 mb, another ridge from the east develops to the east of longitude 75E (with ridge line at around 30N). Easterly winds (TEJ) strengthen with height from 200 mb reaching a maximum at 100 mb. Speeds are between 60 and 80 kt over the Peninsula between 150 and 100 mb.
Upper tropospheric easterlies are seen in Guwahati only in midmonsoon. The strengthening of easterlies with height in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar is less than in central parts and the Peninsula where thermal gradients are stronger.

Upper Air Winds July

To sum up, the chief features of the upper air flow in the SW-Monsoon season are: The monsoon trough southwards with height, sloping

The ridges over northern India. The ridge in the upper troposphere near 30N and east of 75E is referred to as the 'Tibetan High'. Peninsula has westerlies and easterlies. lower upper tropospheric tropospheric

The flow from the Arabian Sea across the Peninsula is usually referred to as the 'Arabian Sea monsoon' and that to the north of the trough after some travel over the Bay as the 'Bay monsoon current'.

Surface Temperatures
In July, the southwest monsoon causes extensive cloudiness. Clouding is heavy between 17N and 24N in the central regions, west of 77E and south of 17N in the Peninsula, and to the east of approximately 85E in northeast India. Temperatures are even in these regions, being generally between 28C and 29C. But on the west coast, temperatures of the order of 26C to 27 C are experienced which are lower than mean air temperatures over the open Arabian Sea. Similar feature is noticed along the Burma coast also. Over the country, to the east of 77E and south of 17 N, temperatures are 30 C to 31 C. This large difference of 4 C is partly due to Fohn Effect and to lesser cloudiness.

The chief features of the daily mean surface temperature during SW-Monsoon season are: The hottest areas in India lie over west Rajasthan with still higher temperatures further west. The spatial range of temperatures over India is about 9 C. Thus the region of highest temperatures shifts from near 20 N in April to 28 N by July.

Upper Air Temperatures (April)

During April, a thermal high develops over India at 850 mb with centre near about 22N, 80E. Temperature decreases in all directions from this centre. The fall in temperature is about 7C down to 8N, while it is 4C upto 30N. Further north, meridional temperature gradient is very marked. By 700mb, the thermal high shifts southwards to 15N and the temperature gradient is towards north. A ridge appears to run from north Arabian Sea to the Caspian Sea. At 500mb also the temperature decreases to the north of 12N and is uniform to the south. Temperature range from 17N to 30N is 4C. At 300mb, a weak thermal high is over the south Peninsula and the temperature fall from 20N to 30 N is 6C. Temperature is very flat at 200mb (within 2C of -50C) but a marked increase towards north develops at 150mb and 100mb from the central parts of the Peninsula. At 100mb, the temperature difference is 12 C between 10o and 30 N. Standard deviations of temperature are 2 to 4C at 700mb and 500mb. They are 3 to 5C from 300 to 100 mb, higher values being in the northern parts of India. The tropical tropopause occurs in April near 100mb; to the north of 25N, the middle tropopause also occurs at 200mb. The temperature at the tropical tropopause is about -68C north of 25N, decreasing to -78C south of 15N. The frequency of middle tropopause decreases from January to April over northern India unlike some other areas in the same latitude.

Upper Air Temperatures (July)

In July, at the height of the southwest monsoon, a thermal high lies over Iran, Iraq and central parts of Arabia at 850mb and a thermal ridge runs from it to Lat. 35N to the north of India. Two thermal troughs run one along the west coast of the Indian Peninsula and the other along the Burma coast while a thermal ridge is present over the west Bay and neighbourhood. The thermal pattern at 700mb is nearly similar except that the troughs and ridges are absent to the south of about 20N and the thermal gradient over India is less. The thermal high over north America is at a little higher latitude and over west Africa at a lower latitude than over west Asia. At 500 and 300mb, a thermal ridge runs along 25 30N with appreciable temperature gradient to the south at 300mb. At 200 mb, the thermal ridge is along 30 35N with decrease in temperature to the south. Aloft, this thermal ridge disappears. At 150 and 100 mb, the temperature increases from the south to the north, from the Equator to the Pole.

 Tropopause is highest between 25 and 30N, where it is between 100 and 95mb. The pressure at tropopause increases to the south, being 120mb at Port Blair and 115mb at Trivendrum. To the north of 30N also, pressure at the tropopause increases. The temperature at the tropopause is uniform upto 30N, being about -75C.

Upper air isotherms (C) during April and July

SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL

The southwest monsoon (June to September) is the principal rainy season of India. The mean rainfall over the Indian plains in the southwest monsoon period of June to September is 925 mm and for the rest of the year only 145 mm. Except in Kashmir and neighbourhood, the extreme south Peninsula and the east coast areas, the annual rain is mainly accounted for by the falls in this season. Orographic influence is dominant in the distribution of rainfall in this season, as the prevailing winds blow almost at right angles against the Western Ghats and the KhasiJaintia hills. There is rapid increase of rainfall to the north of a line running from Ahmednagar to Masulipatnam upto the southern slopes of the Vindhyas.

 In the north Indian plains, a minimum rainfall belt runs from northwest Rajasthan to the central parts of West Bengal, practically along the axis of the monsoon trough. Area to south of this rainfall minimum falls in the track of monsoon depressions which are responsible for much of the rainfall. In tracts further to north, there is probably the influence of the Himalayas in increasing the rainfall. From the west coast, rainfall increases along the slopes of the western ghats and rapidly decreases on the eastern lee side. Rainfall is only 2 cm in some places in the coastal strip in extreme south Tamil Nadu. With all the significant amounts of rainfall occurring over the ghats, a saving feature of economic interest is that all the important rivers of south India emerge out of the western ghats to flow east through the plains.

 Hills and mountain ranges cause striking variations in rainfall distribution. On the southern slopes of the KhasiJaintia hills rainfall is over 800 cm while to the north, in the Brahmaputra valley, it drops to about 120 cm. Cherrapunjis annual rainfall of 1142 cm (at elevation of 1313 m) is obviously due to orographic lifting. From the coast of West Bengal and the hills of Orissa, rainfall decreases inland. Further westwards, the Chota Nagpur hills , the Maikala Range (north Chhattisgarh) and the Mahadeo hills (south MP) cause an increase of rainfall, with lesser amounts in the valleys in between. The Gir hills in Kathiawar have more rainfall than the neighbourhood. Mount Abu in Aravallis has a rainfall of 169 cm while the surrounding plains have only 60 to 80 cm.

 Mean monthly rainfall amounts are not uniform during this period. Broadly, rains increase with the setting of the monsoon, reach a maximum in July and then decrease. But, Arabian Sea Islands get more rain in June than in July, while Kerala has about the same in the two months, both areas being more rainy in May. In Greater Assam and subHimalayan West Bengal, June and July are equally rainy, decreasing thereafter. Some parts of Assam get slightly less rain in July. In Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, east Madhya Pradesh and parts of Orissa, July and August have the same amounts. In the Peninsula between 19N and 16N and east of 76E, an increase in September is noticed, apparently due to the effect of depressions and lows forming at lower latitudes. Coefficient of variation of rainfall of individual months is more than for the whole season, as may be expected. For July alone, the coefficient is 30 per cent in the more rainy parts and 100 per cent in the Rajasthan desert. Rainfall amounts vary still more, from day to day.

ONSET AND ADVANCE OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON

Prior to onset of SW-monsoon over Kerala the following features are observed .

Trough of low pressure in SE-Arabian Sea. Big patches of cloud or intense convection over S/SE Arabian Sea. Strengthening & deepening of lower troposphereic westerly winds over extreme south peninsula and Srilanka and strengthening of upper troposphereic easterly winds to 40-60kts. Ship reports from Arabian Sea squally weather & rough sea. Shift in the position of STWJ to North.
Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala around 1st June. It advances northwards, usually in surges, and covers the entire country around 15th July.

Monsoon Onset over Kerala (MOK) Ananthakrishnan

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has determined the date of Monsoon Onset over Kerala (MOK) operational every year, for more than 100 years. On real time mode, declaration of the date of MOK was based on rainfall (Ananthakrishnan et al 1967). On an operational mode, the date of MOK is based on the synoptic conditions as given by Forecasting Manual Unit (FMU) Report No. IV 18.2 by Ananthakrishnan et al (1968). This criteria (old criteria) state that after 10th May, if any ve stations out of the following seven stations, viz., Colombo, Minicoy, Thiruvananthapuram, Allepey, Kochi, Kozhikode, and Mangalore receive rainfall of 1mm or more in 24hrs for two consecutive days, the MOK may be announced on the second day.

Monsoon Onset over Kerala New Criteria

The guidelines to be followed for declaring the onset of monsoon over Kerala (MOK) and its further advance over the country are enlisted below: a) Rainfall If after 10th May, 60% of the available 14 stations enlisted*, viz. Minicoy, Amini, Thiruvananthapuram, Punalur, Kollam, Allapuzha, Kottayam, Kochi, Thrissur, Kozhikode, Thalassery, Kannur, Kudulu and Mangalore report rainfall of 2.5 mm or more for two consecutive days, the onset over Kerala be declared on the 2nd day, provided the following criteria are also in concurrence.

Monsoon Onset over Kerala New Criteria

b) Wind field Depth of westerlies should be maintained upto 600 hPa, in the box equator to Lat. 10N and Long. 55E to 80E. The zonal wind speed over the area bounded by Lat. 5-10N, Long. 70-80E should be of the order of 1520 Kts at 925 hPa. The source of data can be RSMC wind analysis/ satellite derived winds .

c) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) INSAT derived OLR value should be below 200 wm-2 in the box confined by Lat. 5-10N and Long. 70-75E.

Advance of SW-Monsoon
Further advance is declared based on the occurrence of rainfall over parts/sectors of the sub-divisions and maintaining the spatial continuity of the northern limit of monsoon, further advance is declared. The following auxiliary features are also looked into: b) Along the west coast, position of maximum cloud zone, as inferred from the satellite imageries is taken into account. c) The satellite water vapour imageries are monitored to assess the extent of moisture incursion.

Advance of SW-Monsoon
SW-Monsoon advances over the country in two branches. The Arabian Sea branch, which normally reaches over Kerala on 1st June, advances rapidly northward along the west coast and reaches Gujarat coast by 15th June. This branches brings R/F over the entire peninsula & central India. Simultaneously, bay of Bengal branch advances northward & enters NE-States & Bangladesh by 5th June. The topography & orientation of the hills of in this region (NE) obstruct the movement in north * east direction and hence resulting the deflection to westward. Thus the Bay branch enters over Gangatic plains a a southeasterly/easterly current. Both the branches meet over north India around long 80E.

WITHDRAWAL OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON

a) Withdrawal from extreme north-western parts of the country is not attempted before 1st September. b) After 1st September: The following major synoptic features are considered for the first withdrawal from the western parts of NW India. i) Cessation of rainfall activity over the area for continuous 5 days. ii) Establishment of anticyclone in the lower troposphere (850 hPa and below) over Northwest adjoining Central India. iii) Considerable reduction in moisture content as inferred from satellite water vapour imageries and tephigrams.

WITHDRAWAL OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON

c) Further Withdrawal from the Country: i) Further withdrawal from the country is declared, keeping the spatial continuity, reduction in moisture as seen in the water vapour imageries and prevalence of dry weather for 5 days. ii) SW monsoon withdrawal from the country is declared only after 1st October, when the circulation pattern indicates a change over from the southwesterly wind regime.

SEMI-PERMANENT SYSTEMS OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON

The major semi permanent features associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon are: 1. Heat Low 2. Monsoon Trough (Keshvamurthy 1968, Keshvamurthy and Awade 1970, Anjaneylu 1969, Kanamistu and Krishnamurti 1978, Awade et al 1984) 3. Mascarene High (Krishnamurti and Bhalme 1976) 4. Tibetan High (Flohn 1960, Koteswaram 1958b, Yanai and Song 1992, Wu et al 2004) 5. Tropical Easterly Jet Stream (Koteswaram 1958a) 6. Low Level Jet (Findlatter 1969, Joseph & Raman 1966, Joseph and Sijikumar 2004)

Krishnamurti and Bhalme (1976)

1. Heat Low
A low pressure, generally known as Heat Low, develops due to intense heating over Indo-Pakistan and becomes well marked in June with its main centre over central parts of Pakistan.
The core of the heat low lies over 27N - 30N and 62E - 67E over southern half of Pakistan which is out of reach of the maritime air mass. The vertical profiles over the area reveal that heat low becomes weaker and weaker with height. It generally exists in the first 1.5 km and is over- laid by the Sub-Tropical High (STH) pressure belt. The heat low takes different shapes with the advance of rainy season and with the changing circulation pattern during significant weather events. The low pressure picks up its intensity as the summer season progresses towards its climax.

The day temperature shoots beyond 50C in areas around the centre of heat low encompassing central parts of Pakistan. The horizontal extent of the heat low ranges from few hundred to several hundred kilometers and it experiences different changes in its location and intensity with approaching weather systems. There is a frictional convergence in the heat low with a weak ascent and subsidence exists above.

2. Mascarene High (MH)

Mascarene High is one of the important features of the tropical general circulation which has profound influence on South Asian climate and weather. It is the high-pressure area (1025hPa) at sea level south of the equator in the Indian Ocean near Mascarene island, with its centre located near 30S/50E.

MH
The position and intensity of this high are considered to be closely linked to the South Asian summer monsoon activity. The mean monthly value of the central pressure in the region of MH during June, July, August and September is about 1025 hPa (Ananthakrishnan, et. al., 1968). The Mascarene high undergoes short-period fluctuations in its intensity owing to the passage of extra-tropical westerly waves of the southern hemisphere. The intensification of the Mascarene high strengthens the cross-equatorial flow in the form of the East African Low-Level jet and the corresponding monsoon current over the Arabian Sea (Sikka and Gray, 1981). The intensity of the MH is also found to be associated with the onset of the monsoon over India as well as the subsequent fluctuations in its activity (Okoola and Asnani, 1981). As a major element of the Indian summer monsoon system, oscillation in the strength of the MH is linked to variability of monsoon rainfall, a minimum in monsoon rainfall lags about 9 days behind the maximum intensity of MH (Krishnamurti and Bhalme, 1976)

3. MONSOON TROUGH (MT)

The monsoon trough, also considered as the Equatorial Trough of the northern summer season or Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over India during the summer monsoon season, is depicted by a line on a weather map showing the locations of minimum sea level pressure within the monsoon region. The monsoon trough is a major semi-permanent feature of the summer monsoon circulation in the lower troposphere (upto 1.5km) and exerts considerable influence on the summer monsoon activity in South Asia. The trough line runs at surface level from Ganganagar to Kolkata through Allahabad (normal position), with west to southwest winds to south and easterlies to the north of the trough line. In the Indian monsoon trough, the pressure gradient equator-wards of the trough are higher than that averaged for the whole globe. The monsoon trough is not so well defined at the beginning of the season, while towards the end the western end becomes diffuse.

ITCZ

MT
Monsoon Trough is also a convergence zone between the wind patterns of the southern and northern hemispheres. Westerly monsoon winds lie in its equatorward portion while easterly trade winds exist poleward of the trough. Right along its axis, heavy rains can be found which mark the beginning of the peak of a location's respective rainy season. Monsoon depressions form in the vicinity of the monsoon trough, with each capable of producing a year's worth of rainfall in a relatively short time frame. Another significant point is that when the trough is close to the northern mountains at sea-level, it may not be seen at 1.5 km, indicating that the usual southward slope is not present. During the Indian summer monsoon season, Monsoon Trough is the most conspicuous signature of the monsoon circulation at the surface.

MT
The monsoon trough can also be said to indicates the separation between air masses of northern and southern hemispheric origin. The trough line tilts southward with height; the slope in the western sector is steep in the lower tropospheric and less marked in the middle troposphere, while in the eastern sector the slope is moderate in the lower troposphere and increases appreciably in the middle troposphere (Srinivasavn, et. al. (1971)) The maximum temperature to the north of the trough is on average about 20C higher than that to the south, which explains the southward slope of the trough axis with height (Joshi and Desai, 1985). The trough axis exhibits considerable day-to-day variation in its position, which has vital bearing upon the monsoon rainfall distribution in the region. No other semi-permanent feature has such a control on monsoon activity. This arises mainly from the different synoptic systems that prevail in association with different positions of the trough.

MT
The mean rainfall is higher to the south of the trough on account of the heavy rains in the southwest quadrant of depressions which travel west-north-westwards, a little to the south of the mean position of the monsoon trough line. Along the mean position of the trough itself, rainfall is minimum and again increases towards the foot of the Himalayas. Normally some rain occurs near the surface trough and to south on account of the convergence in it and southward slope with height. When the trough rapidly shifts north or south, which can be even 50 latitude in a day, monsoon activity is enhanced in that area.

The breaks in monsoon rains occur with varying intensities and durations and are mostly associated with the north-south movements of the monsoon trough.

4. Tibetan High (TH)

Flohn (l950) first described the formation of this permanent warm anticyclone. At the time of onset of SW-monsoon over Kerala the TH is generally not established. Whether the heating of the Tibetan plateau by the incoming solar radiation is responsible for the development of this TH has not been clearly established. In July, at about 700 mb and aloft, a ridge lies over Pakistan and northwest India to the west of about 75E, with its axis along 30N. Another high (TH) appears to the east of 80E at 500 mb with axis near about 28N. At this level, the high covers the Tibetan Plateau while the centre of the high is at its eastern periphery. More marked at 300 mb, its extent is between 70E and 110E, with centre near 30N/90E (mean position).

5. Tropical Easterly Jet Stream (TEJ)

Near 100 mb, strong easterlies blow to the south of 25N in the southwest monsoon period, which concentrate into a core of high winds known as the 'Easterly Jet Stream'. Krishna Rao (1952) first pointed out that Nagercoil shows easterly winds of 50 m/sec at about 75mb (19 km) which constitute a part of the easterly jet stream over south India between 7N and 18N. Koteswaram (1958) studied the easterly jet stream over India in detail. These strong easterly winds near the tropopause are a characteristic feature of Asia and Africa in summer and are not to be found over the Atlantic or the Pacific. The core of the easterly jet (75kts) over India appears to be near about the latitude of Madras (13N) at 100 mb in July. The jet stream runs from the east coast of Vietnam to the west coast of Africa. Over Africa, the location is at around 10 N. Normally, the jet is at an accelerating stage from the south China sea to south India and decelerates thereafter.

TEJ
Position and speed of TEJ fluctuate from day to day. However, at Trivendrum (0830' N) the maximum speed is at 14.0 km (150 mb), being 65 kt, higher than that at Madras at that level. Aloft, the speed is less than at Madras. At Gan Island (1S), the maximum speed of 55 kt is at 150 mb as at Trivendrum and the speed decreases sharply to 25 kt by 100 mb. At Bombay (l9 N), speeds at 14, 16 and 18 km are respectively 55, 70 and 60 kt. The speed at 18 km is higher than that at Madras. Thus while the core of the easterly jet is near 13 N at 100 mb (Madras Lat in July), the highest speeds at 150 mb are further to the south and above 100 mb further to the north. Even at 100 mb, strong temperature gradient prevails over northern India. Hence easterly winds increase with height even above 100 mb. New Delhi (28 30' N) shows an increase of speed from 10 kt at 14 km to 35kt at 24 km. The easterlies do not extend to north of 30N in the upper troposphere.

6. Low Level Jet / Findlatter Jet/ Somali Jet

The Low-level jet streams, which are found in several parts of the world, refer to strong low-level currents on a monthly or seasonal basis, but they are much weaker and smaller than the planetaryscale upper-tropospheric jet streams. These are generally located in the lowest 1-2 km of the troposphere and are strongly influenced by local factors such as orography, friction and the diurnal cycle of heating.

Although the low-level jets are weak (40-60kts at 850mb) and limited in spatial extent, they constitute an important part of the regional circulation owing to their role in largescale moisture and momentum transport.

Low Level Jet / Findlatter Jet/ Somali Jet

Findlater (1966) discovered the cross-equatorial East African low-level jet (also known as low-level cross-equatorial jet, Findlaters jet or Somali jet) from the analysis of aircraft and pilot balloon observations, and it has subsequently been recognized as a major feature of the lower-tropospheric circulation over the western Indian Ocean during the Indian summer monsoon season. This jet constitutes the strongest cross-equatorial flow in the lower troposphere at any level. The core of the LLJ is found near 850mb with core speed is in the range of 40-60kts. Speed maxima is found over the western Arabian Sea.

LLJ appears to flow from Mauritius, through Kenya, Somalia and across the Arabian Sea to the west coast of the Indian Peninsula (near 9N) and further eastwards.

Low level jet stream over Indian Ocean (a) mean monthly position; (b) mean monthly velocities (m/sec) in July (Findlater, 1971)

Synoptic and Meso-scale Features of SW-Monsoon

Low Pressure Area Monsoon Depressions Off-Shore Trough/ Off-shore vortices Mid-Tropospheric Circulations (MTC)

Low Pressure Area (LPA)

Weaker systems with only one closed isobar and wind speeds less than 17 kt, are called LOW or LPA. Formed quite frequently during SW-monsoon. Responsible for causing substantial rainfall during the season. LPA are either formed over central or north Bay or over land. Generally move in west to northwesterly direction. Average life span is 4-6 days. Land low are smaller in areal extent. Occasionally concentrated into depressions.

Monsoon Depressions (MD)

Monsoon depressions are the synoptic features that cause most of the monsoon rains. These are low pressure areas with two or three closed isobars (at 2 mb intervals) covering an area of about five degrees square. Horizontal diameter may be upto 1000km, whereas vertical extent in between 6 to 9km only. Area of formation: Normally form in the Bay of Bengal (BoB) north of 18N west of 92E, Eastern parts of Arabian Sea (Move toward Gujarat) Land (West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa, East UP) Frequency of Occurrence: Average 2 MD per Month; Only 1-2MDs during June & July and 2-3MDs during August & September. Life Span: normally 2 to 5 days, some occasions 6-7 days.

 Movement: MD over BoB move westnorthwest at least upto the central parts of the country before weakening or filling up. During July & August they follow Monsoon Trough, i.e. northwest direction. Few may go in northeast direction. 70% crosses east coast between 20-22N Half of 70% reached upto 80E; 10-20 % cross 75E and few emerged into Arabian Sea and re-intensify. Speed: 5-10km/hr east of 85E whereas 10-20km/hr west of 85E. Give widespread rains in the southwest quadrant with many heavy falls. Most of the MDs do not concentrated into cyclonic storm (>34kts) because: Presence of strong vertical wind shear during SW-Monsoon. Most of the MDs formed near the coast, so no sufficient Sea area as well land interaction do not allow too much expansion/intensification.

Off-Shore Trough/ Off-shore vortices

A weak trough develops quite frequently during monsoon season along west coast of India It can extend from Kerala coast upto Gujarat. Responsible for vigorous rainfall along the west coast. These troughs are generally seen from surface to 0.9 km a.s.l. or sometimes rarely upto 1.5 km a.s.l. Off-shore vortices are formed when relatively weaker southwesterly monsoon winds are returned by the western Ghat mountains and are embedded within the off- shore trough.

Mid-Tropospheric Circulations (MTC)

Middle tropospheric cyclonic vortices formed over NE Arabian Sea and adjoining Gujarat and north Maharastra coasts were responsible for very heavy rainfall over the northern sectors of the west coast during southwest monsoon season. These vortices confined to the middle atmosphere between 3 to 6km with a vorticity maxima, maximum moisture content and maximum convergence between 600 and 500 hPa level. Heavy to very heavy precipitation is concentrated in the southwest sector of a MTC. The most peculiar characteristic of these circulations is that they are only confined to the middle atmosphere and are either not visible on the surface or best seen as a trough. It is believed that large scale vertical shear (strong easterlies in upper troposphere and weak westerlies in lower troposphere) are responsible for formation of MTC. Frequency: not as frequent as MDs. 1-4 MTC per season. Life span: 3-7 days (more than MDs); move slow and remain quasistationary for several days.

Mid-Tropospheric Circulations (MTC)

Figure: 0300UTC 21st Sept2007 (a) water vapour (b) visible and (c) Meteosat CMV for the same day.

Terminology used to described Southwest monsoon activity

Weak/subdued Monsoon: Rainfall less than half the normal (over the land area) Wind speed upto 12 knots (over the Sea) Normal Monsoon Rainfall: half to less than 1 times the normal (over the land area) Wind speed is between13 to 22 knots(over the Sea) Active Monsoon i) Rainfall 1 to 4 times the normal. ii) The rainfall in at least two stations should be 5 cm, if that subdivision is along the west coast and 3 cm, if it is else where. iii) Rainfall in that sub-division should be fairly widespread to widespread. Wind speed is between 23 to 32 knots (over the Sea)

 Vigorous Monsoon i) Rainfall more than 4 times the normal. ii) The rainfall in at least two stations should be 8 cm if the subdivision is along the west coast and 5 cm if it is elsewhere. iii) Rainfall in that sub-division should be fairly widespread or widespread. Wind speed is 33 knots and above(over the Sea) Break Monsoon Monsoon trough shifts northwards and runs close to foot hills of Himalayas Drastic reduction in rainfall over the most parts of the country Good rainfall over foot hills and southernmost Peninsula. Strengthening of westerlies upto foothills. Weak trough along east cost (North Bay to Southern Peninsula) Positive pressure gradient over central India.