Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
16 August 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Unde r V a lue d ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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16 August 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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16 August 2013
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Page 3 of 17
Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
16 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
442.50
300.80
455.40
Neutral
Buy
Target
604
Beta
0.71
CHEMRING GROUP
304.20
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
365
0.66
COBHAM
287.60
190.10
307.70
Neutral
Neutral
298
0.85
MEGGITT
533.50
366.20
562.00
Neutral
Neutral
522
1.28
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1123.00
799.39
1240.00
Neutral
Neutral
1141
1.00
SMITHS GROUP
1302.00
1011.00
1397.00
Neutral
Sell
1150
0.77
1940.00
1505.00
1981.00
Neutral
Sell
1702
0.52
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
339.60
201.00
354.00
Neutral
Neutral
335
1.97
INCHCAPE
620.00
353.30
645.00
Neutral
Neutral
636
1.42
LOOKERS
121.50
68.75
128.50
Neutral
Sell
112
1.22
30.75
13.50
30.75
Neutral
Buy
44
1.09
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
284.30
181.25
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-837
1.95
711.00
541.00
769.90
Neutral
Buy
877
1.18
75.05
32.89
77.14
Neutral
Sell
1.86
340.60
220.70
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-120
1.39
STANDARD CHARTERED
1541.50
1364.00
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3463
1.64
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
555.50
415.00
588.50
Neutral
Sell
490
0.58
DIAGEO
2014.00
1672.50
2136.50
Neutral
Neutral
2189
0.54
SABMILLER
3118.50
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4246
0.91
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
336.40
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
454
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
303.50
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
555
1.12
CARCLO
362.50
342.75
501.00
Neutral
Sell
145
0.74
2553.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3203
1.05
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
259.00
204.20
275.00
Neutral
Buy
311
1.07
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2792.00
2190.00
2887.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4325
1.43
VICTREX
1524.00
1309.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1341
1.16
SYNTHOMER
229.30
141.80
229.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
398
1.10
ZOTEFOAMS
199.00
178.50
225.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
299
1.00
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
116.00
71.50
118.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
278
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
226.00
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1093
0.83
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
301.20
145.90
355.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
614
1.70
1.02
0.56
BELLWAY
1338.00
869.00
1502.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2871
2086.00
1387.00
2340.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3478
0.58
BOOT (HENRY)
184.00
123.50
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
364
0.75
1.11
723.50
473.20
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1443
CARILLION
283.40
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1549
1.09
CLARKE (T)
58.75
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
388
0.80
COSTAIN GROUP
283.00
219.75
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1136
0.52
1440.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
868
1.04
GALLIFORD TRY
957.00
621.00
1020.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2964
0.97
KELLER
976.00
491.00
1161.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2392
1.29
1498.00
1106.00
1528.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5357
1.01
67.75
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
226
1.06
1.33
CRH
KIER GROUP
LOW & BONAR
MARSHALLS
153.25
81.00
155.00
Neutral
Buy
206
674.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4557
0.71
17.00
11.25
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
61
1.05
NORCROS
1097.00
637.67
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2006
1.02
REDROW
PERSIMMON
229.60
135.30
255.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
458
0.90
SIG
178.00
94.15
188.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
531
1.70
46.50
43.00
287.50
Sell
Strong Buy
4250
0.89
101.70
50.25
113.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
228
1.61
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1553.00
1013.00
1713.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4428
1.95
WOLSELEY
3146.00
2484.55
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6043
1.35
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1328.00
999.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
1072
0.69
671.50
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
900
1.14
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
128.00
105.50
137.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
280
1.27
INVENSYS
495.20
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
278
1.40
LAIRD
213.00
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
451
2.10
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1461.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1318
1.11
RENISHAW
1701.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2113
1.29
SPECTRIS
2226.00
1549.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2869
1.53
97.13
65.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-481
0.77
TT ELECTRONICS
185.00
114.00
191.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
436
1.61
XAAR
816.00
227.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
427
1.06
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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+44 20 3239 8994
Page 7 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
106.00
54.25
106.00
Neutral
Buy
137
1.19
BODYCOTE
618.00
337.60
644.00
Neutral
Neutral
625
1.60
CASTINGS
433.25
291.00
443.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
665
0.95
VESUVIUS
455.00
263.19
480.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1086
2.23
FENNER
357.70
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
547
1.45
HALMA
560.50
405.80
578.00
Neutral
Sell
407
0.78
420.50
324.50
480.00
Neutral
Buy
529
1.32
1417.00
837.50
1445.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4479
1.41
305.10
220.30
318.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
505
1.90
2831.00
2157.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
119
1.00
270.50
185.90
284.90
Neutral
Sell
244
1.66
55.50
35.40
80.16
Neutral
Sell
44
0.79
SPIRAX-SARCO
2962.00
1932.53
2981.00
Neutral
Sell
2108
0.84
VITEC GROUP
599.00
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
464
1.37
WEIR GROUP
2217.00
1566.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2167
1.44
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
398.70
392.10
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
769
0.44
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
287.90
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Buy
383
0.39
SAINSBURY (J)
384.50
321.90
398.50
Neutral
Buy
468
0.56
TESCO
367.00
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
193
0.68
84.75
23.50
100.50
Neutral
Sell
54
0.79
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1892.00
1267.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1638
0.61
CRANSWICK
1120.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1773
0.33
DAIRY CREST
506.00
332.90
528.50
Neutral
Sell
375
0.91
DEVRO
314.40
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
513
0.37
PREMIER FOODS
102.00
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
246
1.26
817.50
634.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1355
0.67
2569.00
2235.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2190
0.50
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
26.25
22.13
29.50
Neutral
Buy
38
0.66
527.00
266.40
542.50
Neutral
Sell
455
0.51
1593.00
1000.00
1593.00
Neutral
Sell
1224
1.29
641.00
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
348
0.90
41.16
17.00
46.33
Neutral
Buy
46
1.46
216.00
90.00
220.00
Neutral
Sell
58
1.06
31.75
20.63
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
110
1.01
HALFORDS GROUP
351.70
234.50
405.20
Neutral
Buy
508
0.71
JD SPORTS FASHION
937.00
651.00
963.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1743
0.49
DARTY
Target
Beta
75.50
39.00
81.75
Neutral
Buy
110
1.23
KINGFISHER
382.60
262.20
404.90
Neutral
Buy
444
0.91
454.20
352.70
488.80
Neutral
Buy
635
0.60
64.00
44.75
71.00
Neutral
Buy
73
0.97
429.00
202.00
492.75
Neutral
Sell
156
0.38
NEXT
4812.00
3320.00
5030.00
Neutral
Buy
5298
0.61
TED BAKER
1890.00
899.00
1973.00
Neutral
Sell
963
0.56
84.50
46.00
89.75
Neutral
Sell
75
1.51
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
134.00
129.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
113
0.39
CONSORT MEDICAL
825.00
660.50
839.00
Neutral
Sell
574
0.35
OPTOS
167.00
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Neutral
173
1.17
780.50
638.00
800.00
Neutral
Sell
663
0.45
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
776.00
601.00
794.50
Neutral
Neutral
760
0.42
HEADLAM GROUP
399.50
291.00
415.00
Neutral
Sell
335
0.88
81.50
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
114
0.70
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
874.50
528.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
287
0.73
CSR
503.50
308.10
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1568
1.13
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
64.75
29.50
83.25
Neutral
Sell
56
0.94
281.40
235.10
624.00
Neutral
Buy
327
1.04
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
133.80
118.00
170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
248
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
159.25
140.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-199
0.94
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1279.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-414
0.52
AMLIN
384.10
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1494
0.40
BEAZLEY
205.20
162.20
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
929
0.50
CATLIN GROUP
470.10
450.10
552.50
Neutral
Neutral
463
0.22
HISCOX
636.50
459.54
660.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1861
0.46
902.50
723.00
921.50
Neutral
Buy
1207
0.32
120.30
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
706
0.39
NOVAE GROUP
497.00
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3339
0.38
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2461.00
2092.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3460
0.95
ENTERPRISE INNS
144.30
55.75
152.20
Neutral
Sell
108
1.64
TUI TRAVEL
362.70
206.30
401.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
712
0.96
929.50
700.50
965.00
Neutral
Sell
599
0.26
GREENE KING
802.50
556.50
897.50
Neutral
Sell
614
0.88
LADBROKES
187.30
168.90
243.10
Neutral
Buy
259
0.87
1932.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1657
1.10
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
538.50
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
577
1.34
405.00
262.70
430.40
Neutral
Sell
269
1.00
128.70
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
61
1.24
13.00
6.15
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
73
1.16
158.50
125.70
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
566
0.96
0.70
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
520.50
320.30
570.00
Neutral
Sell
385
WETHERSPOON (JD)
710.00
447.90
767.00
Neutral
Neutral
682
0.57
WHITBREAD
3073.00
2096.00
3303.00
Neutral
Sell
2155
0.97
WILLIAM HILL
426.60
271.02
494.50
Neutral
Sell
253
0.80
MARSTON'S
152.80
109.90
164.50
Neutral
Sell
10
1.16
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
404.30
294.10
404.90
Sell
Sell
367
1.18
CHESNARA
258.75
169.00
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
528
0.64
198.10
128.00
201.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
502
1.69
OLD MUTUAL
194.80
165.10
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
405
1.52
PRUDENTIAL
1190.00
770.00
1232.00
Neutral
Neutral
1204
1.66
617.50
336.20
641.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
6907
0.84
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
16 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
140.50
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.42
830.00
709.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.47
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
41.50
31.00
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.06
790.00
451.25
835.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1.07
1104.00
747.50
1105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.96
INFORMA
511.00
380.50
541.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.63
ITE GROUP
283.30
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.44
ITV
156.60
82.00
168.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.46
1.20
JOHNSTON PRESS
17.13
5.20
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1313.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.65
97.00
42.75
99.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.86
286.50
269.00
288.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.13
35.84
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.52
STV GROUP
157.50
81.50
157.50
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
164.50
73.25
170.00
Neutral
Sell
159
1.48
TRINITY MIRROR
112.75
36.75
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.59
UBM
706.00
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.33
190.75
103.00
190.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.85
1168.00
788.00
1210.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.27
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1495.50
1207.00
2084.00
Neutral
Sell
1289
1.84
198.25
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Neutral
216
1.07
ANTOFAGASTA
930.00
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
869
1.42
1975.50
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3040
1.48
GLENCORE XSTRATA
301.80
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
1047
#NA
LONMIN
346.80
240.84
380.10
Sell
Buy
447
2.08
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4890.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2962
0.47
RIO TINTO
3103.00
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2521
1.53
861.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2880
2.24
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1178.00
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
896
0.84
BP
441.20
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1008
1.02
CAIRN ENERGY
277.50
251.80
300.20
Neutral
Sell
-30
1.33
8.52
7.15
12.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
114
0.84
871.00
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
579
1.35
68.25
48.50
89.75
Neutral
Sell
-60
1.35
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
360.50
321.30
400.20
Neutral
Buy
407
1.45
2125.50
2098.00
2365.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8266
0.83
371.00
319.90
404.30
Neutral
Buy
456
0.53
1033.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
695
1.05
892.00
720.50
915.50
Neutral
Sell
729
1.44
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
16 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
128.25
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
267
0.84
PZ CUSSONS
406.10
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
335
0.70
4489.00
3536.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4543
0.30
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.50
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-3
0.91
3192.50
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
8930
0.51
BTG
385.10
300.30
397.90
Neutral
Sell
212
0.73
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
669.50
473.00
780.00
Neutral
Buy
924
0.18
1657.50
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Buy
1905
0.52
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.43
1.33
2.80
Buy
Sell
-2
0.57
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Sell
-5
0.93
2370.00
1727.00
2442.00
Neutral
Sell
1521
0.70
SKYEPHARMA
83.25
43.50
100.50
Neutral
Buy
103
0.66
VERNALIS
24.75
19.38
27.38
Neutral
Sell
11
0.86
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
434.80
300.00
445.00
Neutral
Buy
643
1.18
BRITISH LAND
570.50
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
754
1.05
2336.00
1890.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4420
1.23
534.50
429.70
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1019
1.06
HAMMERSON
499.80
448.60
554.00
Neutral
Neutral
500
1.24
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
310.00
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
492
1.13
892.00
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1585
1.15
25.25
24.25
40.75
Buy
Sell
-141
0.81
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
113.10
103.20
121.40
Neutral
Sell
-3
0.33
MCKAY SECURITIES
150.00
131.50
155.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
245
0.66
400.00
325.00
454.50
Neutral
Sell
231
0.39
330.25
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
93
0.30
0.64
44.00
28.76
44.75
Neutral
Sell
-343
SEGRO
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
302.10
221.60
313.60
Neutral
Sell
-240
1.81
SHAFTESBURY
613.50
516.00
668.00
Neutral
Buy
770
1.03
210.50
177.00
223.00
Neutral
Sell
14
1.04
0.93
0.70
2.38
Neutral
Sell
-918
0.93
436.00
250.75
475.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1133
1.01
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
16 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
334.90
210.50
365.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
763
39.25
22.75
39.25
Neutral
Sell
-51
0.64
CLS HOLDINGS
1229.00
656.50
1260.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2967
0.75
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
4000.00
2706.00
4179.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7178
0.48
195.00
143.00
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
195
0.96
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
Target
Beta
0.70
GRAINGER
177.60
97.45
187.50
Neutral
Sell
113
1.57
HELICAL BAR
280.00
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
203
0.82
26.25
20.50
29.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
232
0.64
6512.50
4350.00
6512.50
Sell
Strong Buy
14682
0.69
89.75
51.00
92.00
Sell
Sell
-198
1.04
RAVEN RUSSIA
69.25
61.50
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
213
1.48
618.50
380.80
664.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2197
0.74
90.50
71.50
90.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
388
0.33
SAVILLS
SMART (J)
ST MODWEN PROPS.
305.80
193.10
333.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
625
1.60
UNITE GROUP
380.10
214.75
403.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1671
1.77
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
125.70
113.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
127
0.67
2430.00
1776.97
2588.15
Neutral
Sell
1503
1.49
COMPUTACENTER
512.50
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1161
0.89
KOFAX
338.00
260.75
347.25
Neutral
Sell
306
1.06
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
29.50
19.25
30.25
Neutral
Sell
22
0.78
792.50
541.11
812.50
Neutral
Buy
909
0.82
PHOENIX IT GROUP
157.50
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
244
0.69
85.00
64.00
85.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
238
0.54
2044.00
1275.00
2156.00
Neutral
Neutral
2194
0.79
352.00
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
441
0.69
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
375.00
274.60
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1305
1.11
BREWIN DOLPHIN
259.10
144.60
283.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
691
0.70
9063.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
101656
0.84
470.00
260.00
472.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1520
0.96
0.67
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
CHARLES TAYLOR
Target
Beta
193.50
155.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1713
1056.00
771.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5145
0.86
108.90
88.90
110.40
Neutral
Sell
68
0.84
4.45
0.55
4.57
Sell
Sell
-142
0.63
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
172.30
101.70
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
865
1.46
ICAP
378.30
280.80
406.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
860
1.04
445.80
280.00
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2430
1.69
INVESTEC
431.40
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1802
1.57
1557.00
930.00
1622.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6738
1.11
84.85
71.30
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-5345
1.36
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1591.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5830
0.73
SCHRODERS
2370.00
1407.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8700
1.30
SCHRODERS NV
1889.00
1131.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
11381
1.28
www.intellisys.uk.com
16 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
255.00
157.75
266.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
847
0.88
AGGREKO
1652.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4155
1.13
AMEC
1074.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3296
1.09
625.50
267.10
730.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
986
1.65
1155.00
892.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2601
0.49
562.00
358.00
604.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2347
0.80
1343.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2771
0.53
UK MAIL GROUP
620.00
233.50
628.00
Sell
Strong Buy
1652
0.42
CAPITA
974.50
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Sell
209
0.54
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
57.00
33.67
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
476
0.81
COMPASS GROUP
852.50
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1969
0.74
BERENDSEN
851.00
514.00
853.00
Sell
Strong Buy
3334
1.03
DE LA RUE
995.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Buy
1418
#NA
DIGNITY
1488.00
899.82
1567.68
Neutral
Strong Buy
3091
0.24
DIPLOMA
615.00
420.10
635.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1513
0.96
ELECTROCOMP.
262.30
200.00
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
921
1.01
ESSENTRA PLC
799.00
500.50
830.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1376
1.16
G4S
246.90
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
879
0.53
HAYS
104.10
68.20
107.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
455
1.06
HOMESERVE
240.40
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
967
0.88
INTERSERVE
557.50
341.00
557.50
Sell
Strong Buy
3671
1.26
3170.00
2697.00
3453.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4759
0.80
48.50
28.00
50.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
114
1.11
0.63
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
26.75
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
215
MENZIES (JOHN)
716.00
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1788
1.38
458.40
346.40
474.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
836
1.41
MITIE GROUP
272.90
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1051
0.52
40.00
38.00
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
702
0.28
OFFICE2OFFICE
1160.00
687.50
1185.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2188
0.73
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
227.50
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
718
1.42
REGUS
178.60
96.00
193.40
Neutral
Sell
56
1.40
RENTOKIL INITIAL
103.50
76.10
103.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
266
1.26
REXAM
498.30
420.70
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1761
0.85
RICARDO
458.00
340.00
460.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
1659
0.89
ROBERT WALTERS
283.00
176.25
283.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1008
1.19
RPC GROUP
458.00
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1513
0.80
RPS GROUP
252.80
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
993
1.51
SERCO GROUP
606.00
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2356
0.59
SHANKS GROUP
89.75
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
264
1.49
SPEEDY HIRE
57.75
23.50
64.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
306
1.20
200.00
87.50
202.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
558
0.65
56.50
40.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
329
0.91
VP
422.00
295.25
427.50
Sell
Strong Buy
2283
0.81
WYG
100.00
45.50
101.00
Sell
Strong Buy
617
0.80
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
325.60
212.50
344.00
Neutral
Buy
412
0.88
40.33
33.42
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
77
0.68
690.50
542.50
749.00
Neutral
Sell
257
0.55
83.70
68.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
117
1.21
1353.00
814.00
1399.00
Neutral
Sell
798
0.05
192.85
154.45
200.20
Neutral
Sell
104
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
16 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
294.80
187.20
307.50
Neutral
Sell
Target
228
Beta
1.24
445.00
350.00
460.00
Neutral
Buy
583
1.05
CLARKSON
1904.00
1150.00
1909.00
Sell
Sell
1309
0.85
EASYJET
1252.00
530.00
1448.00
Neutral
Sell
847
0.76
FIRST GROUP
115.50
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
275
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
985.00
625.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
764
0.74
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1485.00
1220.00
1595.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2668
0.99
NATIONAL EXPRESS
256.00
164.50
260.50
Neutral
Sell
242
1.40
NORTHGATE
386.50
211.50
395.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
619
1.34
STAGECOACH GROUP
316.50
265.90
337.60
Neutral
Buy
432
0.98
81.25
43.75
81.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
230
0.96
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
383.70
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Buy
573
0.52
NATIONAL GRID
740.00
678.00
847.50
Neutral
Buy
966
0.46
PENNON GROUP
663.00
598.00
749.50
Neutral
Sell
611
0.62
SSE
1547.00
1335.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2229
0.41
SEVERN TRENT
1715.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1474
0.36
688.00
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
732
0.48
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
16 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
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