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Curiosity: The Prerequisite for Good Estimates

Jan Warko, PMP What makes for a good estimate? In a nutshell, I believe its curiosity, and the ability to ask questions until your curiosity and your teams curiosity is satisfied. To keep the questions coming, ask your estimators (yourself included) to live the estimates. Help them understand the importance of their estimate in the context of the project. If we had to present our estimate in an hour and couldnt change it, in what way would your estimate or assumptions change? Or, If you had to bet your job on the accuracy of your estimate, would anything change? Why? Curiosity killed the cat, as the saying goes. Lack of curiosity can kill your project just as easily. Getting a handle on estimating terminology is also essential. Effort and duration play key roles in schedule estimates (check your PMBOK or any number of other project management documents for the official definitions).

I like to think of effort as the amount of time an activity or task would take if one person did the task at a 100% productivity level for 24 hours a day, 7 days a week. The effort portion of the estimate is the place to take into consideration a resources productivity and experience level (ask them, and/or document your assumptions). Duration is that same amount of work identified in your effort estimate, but placed in the context of the clients calendar and the length of the standard workday. Duration is the place to take into consideration calendar events specific to each resource, such as vacations, holidays, nonstandard work schedules, additional work commitments, or other items affecting availability (again, ask them. This can be one of the more enjoyable aspects of project planning).

In some circumstances, the estimate for a task is based solely on the duration aspect (i.e., coordinating all participants busy calendars to schedule the acceptance sign-off meeting means waiting three weeks to close the project). Basing an estimate solely upon effort is valid only for those of us lucky enough to have an interruption factor of zero. For the tasks performed by humans, the best schedule estimate should take into consideration both effort and duration (plus a little bit of gut feeling and intuition). Cost estimates address the resources rate over the life of the project and the frequency in which that rate is incurred. Cost estimates for resources should take into consideration internal staff, external staff, travel and equipment. Check out Mark Durrenbergers You Cant Negotiate Cost article in the September 2000, issue of pm Network magazine for a relevant discussion of the role of negotiation in the estimating process. Whats a good approach to developing an estimate? Here are some tactics I take into consideration every time I estimate. Skipping one or more is not recommended, but sometimes unavoidable; be sure to capture the elements you bypass in your assumptions and other aspects of your risk management plan. Estimates should: Match work plans to the numerous client constraints regarding existing or planned processes, quality, risk (including issues and assumptions), results, scope, and of course, schedule and cost. In other words, estimates are based on clear and open communication about every aspect covered by the knowledge areas of the PMBOK. A full understanding of the scope (both product and project) and risk are most essential. I cant say enough about assumptions. A wise man knows what he doesnt know, and he also knows when hes made an assumption. Document assumptions regarding your basis for estimating and about those things that

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may affect the estimate (especially those factors that are out of control of the team). Not only will your change management plan be more robust, re-estimating your project in light of changes will be a breeze. Be based on a clear understanding of the work to be accomplished. Once again, the scope is critical in developing a good estimate, as is the nature and size of the components supporting the project and the skills required to deliver the results. Estimates arent accurate if the projects objective isnt known, or is known but not widely understood. Be based on a clear understanding of the commitment level to the project . Commitment to the project s work plans and supporting estimates has a direct relationship with the degree of certainty about the projects result and the project processes that will be followed. Involve the right people, including the person(s) doing the work and the person(s) responsible for project delivery. Whenever possible, use qualified resources who
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are experts in the application area, and are experienced with the technology that will be used to deliver project results. are trained in the process the project will follow, have produced work plans and estimates on a regular basis,

There is absolutely no substitute for the judgment and knowledge gained from doing a similar project in the past. Be iterative . Ive found the following iteration points to be consistently valuable:
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At a high level, to exercise the project approach and expected performance. At a level of detail that is sufficient enough to make project commitments with logical resources. Assume an average skill level until the next step. At a level of detail that provides a solid foundation for managing project performance against schedule and cost, requiring specific, named resources. At each status meeting as agreed to in the communication plan, to keep abreast of changes to and progress of the project

Consider each resources effectiveness/productivity. So many things contribute to a human resources effectiveness. The list includes but is not limited to:
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project organization (size; number of locations; type) organizations culture skill, experience, motivation, initiative and attitude development environment size and complexity of the solution being developed schedule considerations, such as overtime or securing specialized resources customer characteristics (where they are located, the nature of the client) project elapsed time (risk of burnout) physical working environment (risk of burnout)

Is an estimate provided outside the context of the work to be done and the people doing the work a good estimate? I suggest this would be a good guess, not a good estimate. You are guessing when:
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there isnt any relevant experience (i.e., new technology and/or new clients and/or new project type, etc.). Estimates created without relevant experience tend to be off by approximately 35 percent. when the project manager doesnt ask questions or otherwise satisfy his/her curiosity. a consensus approach is used, which can sometimes result in an educated guess in the context of a work plan review workshop, but does not produce an average.

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When youre estimating, youre communicating. As an added bonus, the more you estimate projects of different sizes and complexity levels, the better your estimating becomes and the better your projects perform. If your estimates and corresponding actuals are captured in your Project Review, other projects estimates may be more accurate. Who thought estimating could benefit so many people? Jan Warkoczewski is a senior project management consultant at Berkshire Consulting, LLC. and specializes in the creation and delivery of project management offices. She is currently studying for her Masters in Project Management degree.

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