Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
June 3, 2009
Richard Yamarone
Director of Economic Research
Argus Research Corp.
Hoping for a “V”-Shaped Recovery
10
-2
-4
-6
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-8
'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 F
Leading Indicators Signal Some Degree of Recovery
8 8
6 6
4 4
-2.5%
2 2
0 0
-2 -2
-3.0%
-4 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, The Conference Board, Argus Research Corp. -4
'85 '95 '05
The Most Convincing Argument of Recovery
15
10
-5
10
-10
-15
Source: Bloomberg, ECRI
-20
-25
-30
'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09
Fed Indices Point to More Prosperous Times
0.50
0.00
-0 50
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
-2.50
-3.00
-4.00
'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08
A-D-S Business Conditions Index Improving
7 6
5
5
4
3 3
2
1
1
-1 0
UPS Volume
Real GDP -1
3
-3
-2
Source: United Parcel Service, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Argus Research
-5 -3
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Fiscal Policy Arriving at the Spigots
250
200
150
Source: CBO
100
50
-50
2009 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 2019
Monetary Policy…
30
20
10
-10
-20
-30
Source: Bureau of Economic Research
-40
'88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Little Reason for Hope in New Orders Data
New Orders
NonDefense Capital Goods Ex-Aircraft (Y/Y%)
24
16
-8
8
-16
-24
-32
Source: Department of Commerce
-40
'94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Key Index Implying Strong Recovery
ISM New Orders - Inventories vs. Real GDP
NO-I
GD P Y / Y %
25 9
20
15 6
10
5 3
-5 GDP 0
NO-INV
NO INV
-10 Source: B EA , ISM , A rgus Research
-15 -3
1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008
Little Need to Build With Glut of Commercial Property
30
15
-15
-30
1350
7300
1200 New
Existing
6550
1050
900 5800
750
5050
600
4300
450
Source: US Dept. of Commerce, National Association of Realtors
300 3550
'96 '99 '02 '05 '08
Home Prices Returning to Pre-Bubble Levels
200 GA-Atlanta
IL-Chicago
175 MA Boston
MA-Boston
Source: S&P MI-Detroit
150 MN-Minneapolis
NC-Charlotte
125 NV-Las Vegas
NY-New York
100
OH-Cleveland
OR-Portland
75
TX-Dallas
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
WA-Seattle
S
Encouraging Signs in the Housing/Construction Market
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
Source: American Institute of Architects
30
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
“Stimulus” May Help Ailing Construction Sector
30
20
10
-10
Non-Residential
-20
Residential
-30
Source: Department of Commerce
-40
2003 2005 2007 2009
Trade, the Unsexy Savior
Contribution to GDP
Residential Spending & Trade
3.5
Residential 2.93
3
Trade
2.5 2.18
2 03
2.03
2 1.66
1.5 1.33
0.94 1.05
1 0.77
0.59
0.5
0.09
0
-0.12 -0.15
-0.5 -0.23
-0.6 -0.52 -0.6
-1
1 -0
0.8
8
-0.91
-1.11 -1.06 -1.12
-1.5 -1.18 -1.2
-1.4 -1.33 -1.39
Source: BEA, Argus Research
-2
'06 QI QII QIII QIV '07 QI QII QIII QIV '08 QI QII QIII QIV '09 QI
Some Recovery in Container Traffic
170,000
150,000
130,000
110,000
90,000
70 000
70,000
Source: Port of Long Beach
50,000
'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09
Some Signs of Peak in Unemployment
'Jobs Hard-to-Get' &
Unemployment Rate
U Rate Jobs Index
10 50
9
40
8
Jobs Index
30
7
6
20
Unemployment Rate
5
10
4
Source: Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
3 0
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Unemployment Benefit Claims Point to Economic Trough
700 000
700,000
650,000
600,000
Source: US Department of Labor
550,000
500,000
450 000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Ever-Resilient Consumer Tossed in Towel
10
-5
1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007
‘Fab Five’ – Dining Out
Spending: Meals at Other Eating Places (Y/Y% )
-2
4
-4
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-6
'98 '01 '04 '07
‘Fab Five’ – Jewelry & Watches
Spending: Jewelry & Watches Y/Y%
16
12
-4
-8
-12
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-16
'98 '01 '04 '07
‘Fab Five’ – Cosmetics & Perfumes
-3
-6
12
10
-2
-4
-6
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-8
'98 '01 '04 '07
‘Fab Five’ – Casino Gambling
Spending: Casino Gambling Y/Y%
24
20
16
12
-4
-8
-12
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, NBER
-16
'98 '01 '04 '07
‘Fab Five’ Recovery…
140
135
110
105
100
95
Dec 01
Dec-01 Dec 02
Dec-02 Dec 03
Dec-03 Dec 04
Dec-04 Dec 05
Dec-05 Dec 06
Dec-06 Dec 07
Dec-07
Bad Signs for Summer Spending
Real Spending: Hotels & Motels (Y/Y% )
16
12
-4
4
-8
-12
-16
Source: Bureau Economic Analysis, Argus Research, NBER
-20
'98 '01 '04 '07
Auto Industry is the Wildcard
America Still Loves Those Trucks
Total Vehicle Assemblies (Mlns)
9 Source: Federal Reserve System
Trucks
8
Autos
7
6
4.12
3.97
5 3.72
4
3.05 3.2
3.11
3
2.52
2 3 72
3.72
3 34
3.34
2.95
1 1.66 1.87 1.84
1.33
0
Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09
Prices Aren’t
Aren t ‘Collapsing’
Collapsing
The Economist Commodity Price Index
275
All Items
260
Industrials
245 Food
230
215
200
Source: The Economist
185
170
155
140
2005=100
125
110
2/14/2001 2/13/2002 2/12/2003 2/11/2004 2/9/2005
Market Inflation Expectations Rising
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0 50
0.50
0.00
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Consumer Inflation Expectations on the Rise
Reuters/U. Michigan Inflation Expectations (%)
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
Source: Bloomberg
1.0
0.0
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
Broad Inflation Measures Still Elevated
GDP Deflators (%)
-2
PCE Deflator
GDP Deflator
-4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
-6
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
No ‘Deflation’ in this Respected Measure
2.9
2.7
2.5
2.3
2.1
1.9
1.7
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
1.5
'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09
Inflation Pressures Appear to be ‘Well-Anchored’…
For Now
4.5
40
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.0
0.5
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Argus Research
0.0
'90
90 '92
92 '94
94 '96
96 '98
98 '00
00 '02
02 '04
04 '06
06 '08
08
Monetary Policy Getting Easier Every Month
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
'87 '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09
Internal Fed Gauge Implies Fed to Remain on ‘Hold’
9 130
37 16
37.16
8 120
FED FUNDS
ALFFI 110
7
100
6
90
5
80
4
70
3
60
2
50
1 40
0 30
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08
Risks to “V”-Shaped Recovery…