Introduction

Organizations human resources are utilized more frequently today as sources of competitive advantages; human resource planning inputs will become more critical in the strategy formulation process. The case is provides an indication of the importance of having appropriate Computer system to support human resources. The description of United Airlines short range station Manpower planning systems where computerized system has an important financial impact in cost savings. While some human resource forecasting approaches are qualitative rather than quantitative and therefore require minimal computer support, many others require sophisticated software. A number of computer software packages are available for strategic human resource applications. For example; specialized software can be obtained for succession planning, human resource forecasting and modeling human resources flows. This software evaluation team should include representation from end user groups, information technology and any other support groups. Although there is growing availability of human resource planning software managers should remember that user dissatisfaction is still a problem with various software packages.

Question-01
What would be some critical parameters or assumptions in software used to forecast an organizations internal supply of human resources? Human resource plan
HRP is to get the right number of people with the right skills, experience, and competencies in the right jobs at the right time and at the right cost. This ensures that the business production requirements are met in an efficient and effective manner. Having too many employees is problematic due to the risk of high labor expenses, downsizing, or layoffs. Having too few employees is also problematic due to high overtime costs, the risk of unmet production requirements, and the challenge of finding the instant human resources needed to get the job done. According to the Government of Canada, human resource planning links people management to the organizations mission, vision, goals and objectives, as well as its strategic plan and budgetary resources. A critical component of an effective HR plan is the method of forecasting. There are four steps in the HR planning process. Before embarking on the HR planning process, an organization must determine the appropriate planning horizon. This includes creating an awareness of both immediate and long-term staffing concerns. As well, planners should assess and accurately understand the current staffing situation in the organization. An HR audit is useful for collecting information in a meaningful way, but depends on the level of clarity regarding who is considered to be in the workforce.

HR forecasting
Forecasting refers to the interaction between the decision makers perceptual and cognitive processes and the objective characteristics of their environment. Forecasting HR supply is a component of the first step. There are a number of different triggers for changes in the internal labor force, including actuary losses, voluntary turnover, and involuntary turnover. As well, the supply of human resources available outside of the organization is also in flux. Thus, this step requires the effective mapping of the effects of internal and external labor forces changes to the organization. Tools such as trend analysis, skills/competency models, replacement charts, succession planning, staffing tables, and Markov analysis can be used in this step.

HR Forecasting Methods:

Types of Forecasts:
HR Demand Internal Supply External Supply

Forecasting HR supply Forecasting HR supply involves an understanding of internal and external potential human resource supplies. Due to the availability of data and the multiple methods that can be used, internal supply is usually easier to establish than external supply. However, it is still important to try to determine external supply as accurately as possible.

Forecasting external HR supply:

There are multiple levels at which external HR supply can be predicted, including global, national, provincial, regional, and local. Information that will help develop an understanding of external HR supply includes: Supply and demand of jobs or skills Educational attainment levels within a region Compensation patterns based on experience, education, or occupation
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 Immigration and emigration patterns within an area Forecasts of economic growth or decline Competition for talent Industry or occupational expected growth levels Public policy, government, and legal changes Trends in labor force participation (including entry and exit) Technological development patterns

Forecasting internal HR supply: By reviewing the data in the HR audits, projections can
be made for future HR supply. The internal labor force may be affected by temporary absences such as leaves of absence (e.g., educational leave, maternity/paternity leave), permanent absences (e.g., death, disability, retirement), or turnover (e.g., resignations, dismissals, layoffs). Death, disability, and retirement are considered actuarial losses in that these are life events that affect all populations. These can be predicted with some degree of accuracy by using mortality rates. Understanding occupational health and safety risks, or reviewing demographic information about the population.

Turnover Trend Analysis Skills/Competency Models Replacement Charts Succession Planning Staffing Tables Supervisors Estimates Regression Analysis Markov Analysis

Supply Forecasting Techniques

Turnover: Turnover refers to the termination of an individuals employment with an

organization. The standard definition of total turnover is the total number of employees leaving an organization divided by the total number of employees in an organization, regardless of whether the turnover was voluntary or involuntary. Turnover can be classified into two sub groupsvoluntary and involuntary. Voluntary turnover is defined as employee-initiated turnover, mainly in the form of quits or resignations. In this instance, the decision to terminate employment with the firm is made by the employee, without management enticement. Involuntary turnover is defined as employer-initiated turnover, mainly in the form of dismissals or layoffs. The employee has little or no personal say in this turnover decision. There are a variety of methods to forecast future HR supply. They include trend analysis, skills/competency inventories, replacement charts, succession planning, staffing tables, and Markov analysis. In the following section, these methods will be explained with some examples.

Trend Analysis: A method of forecasting that assumes past trends and ratios inn
employee movement are stable and indicative of future trends and ratios in employee movement. For example, an organization reviewing historical data may realize that every year, approximately five percent of their staff retires, six percent resign, and three percent are dismissed. Using a simple trend analysis, future HR supply forecasts can be established by assuming an average reduction in internal HR supply of 14 percent per year.

Skills/Competency Models: A competency is a set of behaviors that encompass skills,

knowledge, abilities, and personal attributes, that taken together, are critical to successful work accomplishment. The competency model is a future-oriented model that first reviews competencies that are aligned with an organizations mission, vision, and strategy, and then aims to identify an ideal workforce in terms of those competencies.

Replacement Charts: A replacement chart is used to estimate vacancies in higher level

jobs and identify how potential HR supply can fill these vacancies via internal movements from lower levels jobs. A comprehensive replacement chart will include information regarding possible replacements for vertical or horizontal movement.

Succession Planning:

While replacement charts provide identification of potential

replacements for vacancies within an organization, succession planning focuses on identifying, developing, and tracking future leaders for executive positions or positions that are critical to the success of the organization. Succession planning is a longer-term process of grooming a successor (selected from a pool of candidates on the basis of perceived competency) for management or critical positions. An organization can use the skills inventory, HR audit, or a succession summary to help identify potential successors and skill gaps that can be addressed through succession planning.

Staffing Tables: To assess internal HR supply, a staffing table provides a clear

graphical view of all organizational jobs and the current number of employees at each job. It presents a simple visual understanding of an organizations staffing level within each department and the organization as a whole, in an effort to help understand the combination of employees that make up an organizations internal workforce. This information is useful in evaluating staffing levels by department, branch, or project; the types of staff at each level; and the combination of staff in all categories.

Markov Analysis: A Markov analysis extends beyond the staffing table to help predict
internal employee movement from one year to another by identifying percentages of employees who remain in their jobs, get promoted or demoted, transfer, and exit out of the organization. By tracking and predicting employment movement within an organization, the Markov analysis allows for the development of a transition matrix to forecast internal labor supply.

Parameters or assumptions in software used to forecast an organizations internal supply of human resources
As organizations' human resources are utilized more frequently as sources of competitive advantage, HRP and forecasting will become more central to the strategic planning process. It will be essential for HR executives or other executives to be able to forecast the future availability of employees having knowledge in such critical areas as technology. A number of computer software packages are available for strategic human resource applications. For example: Specialized software can be obtained for succession planning Human resource forecasting Modeling human resource flows Human resource planning inputs will become more critical in the strategy formulation process. Thats why some critical parameters or assumptions are required in software used to forecast an organizations internal supply of human resources. Several factors and parameters influence the selection of forecasting techniques and softwares. Size of the organization is important in software used. For example, minimum numbers of incumbents in the various positions are necessary to develop reliable probabilities of transition from one position to another. Nonetheless, companies having as few as 2,000 employees have developed effective human resource forecasting models. If the purpose is to forecast the supply of human resources in order to identify and eliminate bottlenecks in the career paths of promising managers, replacement charts of Markov analysis used. Another factor in selection of forecasting techniques is the complexity of the organization. The software evaluation team should include representatives from end-user groups, information technology (IT), and any other support groups. Users perceptions of the user friendliness and usefulness of software should be even more critical because of the grater decentralization of HRP in many organizations. Another factor is that with longer-rage forecasting horizons, there is a tendency to use more sophisticated forecasting technique
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Question-02
Which of a companys computerized database should be integrated with a computerized succession planning system? Which ones should not? Succession planning It involves more elaborate planning for skill development of potential replacements, is more
systematic in the assessment of potential replacements and their developmental needs, and generally applies to higher level of managerial position. For succession planning in human resource forecasting approaches require sophisticated software support .A number of computerized database should available for strategic human resource applications. We know that database refers to a collection of data organized to serve many applications efficiently by centralizing the data &controlling redundant data. Specialized database can be obtained for Succession planning Human resource forecasting Modeling human resource flows This HRM database includes employee data management, applicants data management, job data management, employee training data management.

As we all know, Microsoft Access is the most widely used desktop database system in the world. Microsoft Access is part of Microsoft Office so there is a common interface and lots of developers and support options available. It pretty much covers all the functionalities for small business needs. So the database should integrate the human resource related issues .The following issues would be integrated

Employee data

Training data

Succession planning system

job data

Applicant's data

Employee data Companys database should integrate employee data for succession planning .Employee data should integrate the following issues Employee general information, photo, note attachment files, medical information, tax information, monthly timesheet, payroll reports (based on the tax information and timesheet), resume and training records and medical insurance and emergency contacts . Record of all employees information that a company can review it by name list, phone list, or department lists. Record of all employees benefits such as pension, medical and insurance, recreation programs that a company has provided for their employees. HR payroll report, phone list, employee list, department list reports. Employee job history information. Employee certification and awards manage. Employee performance evaluations information & Employee equipment tracking.

Job Data For succession planning the database should integrate the following issues Job opening Information, functions, requirements and skills information. Department of job opening list management

Applicants Data The database should integrate applicants data who apply for various post of the company.I n applicants data, the following issues should integrate Recording all applicants records and contact information Applicant status management Applicant interview setup

Employee Training Data List of all training program that company has provided Record of all employees training records.

Computerized databases that should or should not integrated

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Question-03
What are the factors that could prevent a company from realizing the benefits of an investment in human resource planning software?
Although investment in human resource planning software is beneficial for a company but a number of factors give resistance to company in realizing these benefits. These resistances may be direct and indirect. That means the effects of these factors can come from directly or indirectly to prevent the company from realizing the benefits of an investment in human resource planning software. The factors are: 1. Availability of Funds: In execution of human resource planning software system, a strong fund base is needed. Expenditure will occur in the designing of software system, installing software system and training significant employees. So, lack of availability of fund could prevent a company from realizing benefits of human resource planning software system. 2. Cost: Market price of the installation of human resource planning software may be so high than estimated price may prevent a company from realizing the benefits of an investment in human resource planning software. 3. Training and Education: As line managers take more responsibilities for succession planning, HR planning and forecasting, there will be increased need for systems they can use without great difficulty. Along this line efforts to educate and train line managers on use of these software packages should enhance the ultimate success of the companys human resource planning and forecasting efforts. Without proper training and education could prevent a company from realizing benefits of an investment in human resource planning software. 4. User Dissatisfaction: Although there is growing availability of human resource planning software, managers should remember that user dissatisfaction is still a problem with various software packages. Such dissatisfaction often results because the complexity of software has been underestimated and insufficient resources have been allocated to implementation. So, if such dissatisfaction occurs, could prevent a company from realizing the benefits of an investment in human resource planning software.

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5. Size of the company: In size, a company may be big or small. In large organization it is not the problem to implement human resource planning software system. Because, cost will be minimal in executing such system. But problem occurs when size of the company is small. In small organization, cost of this type of software will be high because of matter of fixed cost. So, in small organization, instead of willingness of the company to maintain such software, cost hinders company to realize the benefits of an investment in human resource planning software. 6. Expert Technician: Although company has available funds, expert line managers and facility in the form of large organization but lacking of expert designer of software can prevent company from realizing benefits of an investment in human resource planning software. In implementing such software system requires more skilled and creative software technician. In the absence of such technician, company is unable to realize benefits.

Following are the explanation about how each one affects the return on investment:

Expert Technician: Expert technician refers to a group of people who are able to solve technical problems easily and apply technical instrument in the proper places and times. So, lacking of expert technicians negatively affects the return on investment.

Size of Company: Size of the company means the area of expansion and operation of that certain organization. Size of the company is a very important issue because it is directly related with the proper execution of the different types of managerial and other activities. When size of the company is not properly defined with considering all the issues, then it negatively affects on the return on investment.

User Identification: It actually refers to the end users that include both the internal and external users of the organization. When all the users are not communicated properly then they may not understand many important issues related with the execution of the organization, that surely affects the return on investment.

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Training and Education: It explains the proper training and education facilities rendered to the employees of the organization. Training education facilities should be adopted and modified with the passage of time, such as ,in modern times technical and advanced HRM education and practices are very much important. So, not proper attention of the training and education related with the employees of the organization must negatively affect the return on investment.

Cost: Cost is a very much sensitive issue. So it must be incurred with considering all the necessary related matters so that the increased cost can easily be managed with the income. Otherwise it will affect the organization negatively.

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Question-04
What organizational groups should be represented on a committee that will develop the requirements list against which human resource planning should be evaluated?
Human resource planning is a team effort. It involves all levels and functional units of an agencytop executives, middle managers and supervisors, and employees. Although human resource planning begins at the top, leaders should seek and reflect the input of managers, supervisors, and front-line employee who may know their customers and services best. The size of the team will vary with the size and complexity of the agency. In a large agency, all of the participants listed below may be involved. Depending on the size of the agency, successful human resource planning may include the following team participants:

Director

Members of Boards/Com missions

Executive Management Team

Quality Councils

Middle Managers, front-line Employees

Financial or Budget Managers

Facility Managers

Human Resource Managers

Information Technology Systems Managers

Strategic Planner or Planning Coordinator

TQM Coordinator

Facilitator

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Director Director provides the leadership necessary to define the mission, craft the vision, and express the principles of the agency the director must lead and actively support the planning process.

Members of Boards/Commissions

It plays an important policymaking role in the planning process. Boards and Commissions can assist in developing the mission, principles, and vision of the agency. They can also provide valuable feedback during the planning process.

Executive Management Team It consisting of the agencys top management and other staff, use their knowledge of services and functional areas to: (1) work with the director in defining the agencys mission, expressing the agencys principles, and crafting an agency-wide vision; (2) set goals to provide direction for the whole agency and to address identified issues, problems, and opportunities; and (3) monitor overall progress and results The team should include knowledgeable individuals from all programs or services operated by the agency, yet not become so large as to be cumbersome. Many agencies already have executive management teams that routinely meet and handle management issues. This group may serve as the nucleus of the planning team, along with additional resource persons who can contribute because of their knowledge, regardless of their rank in the agency.

Quality Council Quality council ensures coordination of the strategic planning process with the agencys quality improvement efforts.

Middle Managers, Program Managers, Supervisors, and Front-line Employees

They involve direct program involvement and can carry the planning process into the program leveldefining program missions and principles, setting program goals and specific objectives,
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developing courses of action or strategies to achieve objectives, operational strategies through action plans, establishing and maintaining performance measures, and determining needed resources.

Financial or Budget Managers

They must analyze fiscal impacts of potential strategies, provide technical support, and use strategic plans to guide development of annual operating budgets and capital outlay budgets.

Facility Managers They must analyze the impacts of implementing potential strategies on the agencys physical facilities and use strategic plans to guide development of capital outlay plans and budgets.

Human Resource Managers HR manager must analyze the impacts of implementing potential strategies on the agencys workforce, training programs, and human resource management policies.

Information Technology Systems Managers They must analyze the impacts of implementing potential strategies on the agencys information technology management systems.

Strategic Planner or Planning Coordinator

They provide the coordination and tools for moving the organization through the planning process. The strategic planner or planning coordinator develops the timetable and organizes the entire process. (Strategic Planner or Planning Coordinator can be a functional title, not a position. A large agency may have more than one planner. In a small agency, the director may be the planning coordinator.)
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Total Quality Management (TQM) Coordinator TQM coordinator is responsible for coordinating the agencys quality improvement effort, if established. Involvement of the TQM coordinator can ensure that the agencys strategic planning and total quality efforts will be integrated. (TQM Coordinator may be a functional t itle, not a position.)

Facilitator

Facilitator those persons who can help guide participants through planning sessions, by assuring that all views are considered. A facilitator is a neutral party who is sometimes used to keep the discussion flowing. Facilitator is a functional title, not a position, and may be someone from outside the agency.

The task of the committee is to evaluate the human resource planning process and also evaluate the performance of the workers. The following topics helps to understand the things clearly:

HR Planning Evaluation

HR plans need to be updated on a regular basis. Organizations will need to establish the information necessary to evaluate the success of the new plan. Benchmarks need to be selected and measured over time to determine if the plan is successful in achieving the desired objectives.

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Organizational groups responsible for developing Human Resource planning evaluation 1 Develop a multi-level, cross-organizational team with the involvement of employees from all levels. 2. Engaging participants from all levels of the organization will result in greater understanding of and investment in the process. 3. It is vital to obtain diverse input from outside the group that performed the work.. Process of Human Resource Planning Evaluation Following are important steps involved in completing an effective evaluation of the HR planning process:

Step 1

Define a clear aim or goal for the evaluation process

Understand the needs of the people who are served by the process Step 2 and its outcomes

Identify and define measures of success by reviewing the desired Step 3 outcomes of the HR planning process.
Brainstorm potential change strategies for producing improvement in Step 4 the HR planning processes. Plan, collect, and use data for facilitating effective decision making

Step 5

Apply a scientific method to test and refine changes, in short cycles, to Step 6 make sure the process is working People at all levels of the organization feel an ability to contribute to Step 7 the process and to the evaluation and improvement of the process

Step 8

Form a team that has knowledge of the HR planning process.

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HR strategies and plans

Human resources are utilized more frequently as sources of competitive advantage. In effective evaluation in human resources,top management should develop a successful committee as well as strategies plans and programs for which they will select right person in the right place .In HR strategics and plans following matters should be considered:

Work design

Learning and development Career development and succession management

Organizational development

Recruitment and selection

HR planning

Performance management

Reward and recognition

HR information management

By using these strategies employees gets proper satisfaction within their jobs and organization will get right person.

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Conclusions:
The changing environment has increased both the strategic importance and the difficulty of human resource planning. Organizations are concerned about having an adequate supply of successors for their top-level positions who will have the experiences and skills needed to provide leadership. With the recognition of human resources as a source of competitive advantage, human resource planning will have a larger strategic role in the future. Along with increasing importance, there also has been a trend toward decentralization of the responsibilities for human resource planning to line managers. Aside from the benefits of such planning, the problems that organizations incur when they fail to plan. Such problems include having shortages or surpluses of employees with various skills and experiences, as well as higher operating costs, which result from failures to include staffing projections in strategic plans. All of the discussed problem and prospects will be solved easily by using different softwares. Thats why it is important for manager to know the use of software for effective human resource planning and performance evaluation.

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References:
Gaballa, A. and Pearce, W. 1979, "Telephone sales manpower planning at Qantas," Interfaces, Vol. 9, No. 3 (May), pp. 1-9. Henderson, W. and Berry, W. 1976, "Heuristic methods for telephone operator shift scheduling: An experimental analysis," Management Science, Vol. 22, No. 12 (August), pp. 13721380. Keith, E. G. 1979, "Operator scheduling," AIIE Transactions, Vol. 11, No.1 (March), pp.37-il. Rubin, J. 1975, "Manpower scheduling model," IBM Cambridge Scientific Center Technical Report No. G320-2104, Qanuary. www. google.com www. wikipedia.com

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