You are on page 1of 94

Network Manager

nominated by
the European Commission

EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast


February 2013
Flight Movements and Service Units 2013 - 2019

EUROCONTROL

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report presents the February 2013 update of the EUROCONTROL seven-year flight and
service units forecast. This update uses the most-recent available traffic statistics and
economic forecasts, and more up-to-date information in terms of traffic trends and recent airindustry-related events.
IFR movements
Traffic growth in 2012 was marked by economic weakness in much of Europe and by several
airline failures locally adding to the general traffic decline, in particular of domestic traffic.
Looking ahead, the weakness of the economic outlook in Europe, very high oil prices,
slower-than-expected recovery from the Arab Spring and the financial difficulties of the air
traffic industry are reflected in the new flight forecast that has been revised downwards
compared to the last one (Ref. 1). 2013 is forecast to see a flight decline of 1.3%. However,
considering the uncertainty around the European economy, we also draw attention to the low
forecast which has a decline of 2.9% in 2013.
In the following years, economic growth is expected to return and flight growth is expected to
stabilise at around 3% per year, a value little change compared to the September 2012
forecast, though lower than long-term historic trends. However, due to the weak 2012 the
growth will apply to lower traffic volumes. Consequently, the 2008 peak of traffic is now
expected to be passed only in 2016, a year later than expected in the September 2012
forecast, when traffic reaches 10.3 million flights ( 0.6 million).
By 2019, traffic is expected to reach 11.2 million IFR movements (1 million) in Europe, 17%
more than in 2012.
Growth at a State level shows a very wide variation, even amongst States with high volumes
of traffic. By 2019, the annual average flight growth rates tend to increase towards the East
of Europe: 1.4% in Spain, 2% in Germany and Italy, around 3% in Poland, 4.5% in Ukraine
and 7% in Turkey.

Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08).


ESRA08
2009

2008
IFR Flight Movements
(Thousands)

Annual Growth
(compared to
previous year)

Page i

2010

2013

2014

9,559

9,924 10,358 10,835 11,222 11,658 12,079

3.4%

9,493 9,784 9,548

9,424

9,689

9,975 10,298 10,576 10,885 11,195

2.3%

2011

2012

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

AAGR
2019/
2012

10,083

9,413

9,276

9,409

9,517

9,690

9,815

9,969 10,132

0.9%

0.1%

3.8%

4.4%

4.6%

3.6%

3.9%

3.6%

3.4%

0.4%

-6.6%

0.8%

3.1% -2.4%

-1.3%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

2.7%

2.9%

2.8%

2.3%

-2.9%

1.4%

1.2%

1.8%

1.3%

1.6%

1.6%

0.9%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 2. Average annual flight growth 2012-2019 per State.

En-route Service Units


Though average weight and distance continue to grow, the economic weakness continues to
depress service unit growth too. In 2012, 121.6 million service units (TSU) were produced.
This represents a drop of 1.3% compared to 2011, a second decline since the 2009 dip after
growth figures of about 3.5% and 5% for 2010 and 2011. Overall TSU declined in a lesser
extent than flights: for the ESRA08 region flights decreased by 2.4%. TSU remain linked to
the evolution of the flights.
Following the flight forecast, the forecast for 2013 TSU is revised downwards by 1.5
percentage points to now remain almost unchanged with a slight decline by 0.1% and reach
around 121.5 million. In the current fragile economic outlook, the low forecast is also
relevant: we expect a decline of 1.7% in 2013 to 119.6 million TSU.
Based on these lower numbers for 2013 and a revised medium-term flight forecast, the TSU
are forecasted to be about 22% higher in 2019 than in 2012, reaching in total around 147.7
million, representing a baseline scenario average growth of 2.8% per year, implying an
annual growth of 3.3% as of 2014 onwards.
Figure 3. Summary of service units forecast for EUROCONTROL Member States
(CRCO11).
CRCO11
Service Units forecast

Page ii

Forecast May12
TSU
(million)

Growth

Forecast Sep12
TSU
(million)

Growth

121.6

Forecast Feb 2013


TSU
(million)

Growth

121.6

-1.3%

Actual 2012 vs.2011

121.6

Forecast 2013 vs.2012

125.6

2.4%

124.4

1.4%

121.5

-0.1%

Forecast 2014 vs.2013

129.7

3.2%

128.2

3.0%

125.7

3.4%

Forecast 2017 vs.2011

143.1

16.1%

141.9

15.2%

138.6

12%

Forecast 2019 vs. 2012

NA

147.7

22%

NA

Released Issue

Edition: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Any user of these seven-year forecasts is strongly advised to use the forecast range (lowgrowth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks (eg. this
forecast is prepared in the context of an economic downturn which could further deteriorate)
and upside risks (eg. current high load factors could result in quicker-than-expected traffic
recovery when it finally arrives). These are discussed later in Section 6. For the flights, by
2019, the high-growth scenario has 0.9 million more and low-growth scenario 1 million fewer
flights than the base scenario (+1.1% and -1.4% in terms of growth respectively).
A two-year flight forecast 2013-2014 will next be published in May 2013 at the same time as
an update of the seven-year service-units forecast for 2013-2019. Parts of the seven-year
flight forecast will be refreshed in September.
Comments are welcome at statfor.info@eurocontrol.int.

Edition: v1.0

Released Issue

Page iii

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

This page has been deliberately left blank.

Page iv

Released Issue

Edition: v1.0

EUROPEAN ORGANISATION
FOR THE SAFETY OF AIR NAVIGATION
EUROCONTROL

EUROCONTROL 7-Year
IFR Flight Movements and
Service units Forecast
2013-2019

Edition Number
Edition Date
Status
Intended for

:
:
:
:

v1.0
28/02/13
Released Issue
General Public

EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS
TITLE

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service


Units Forecast: 2013-2019
Reference Number:
Document Identifier

Edition Number:

STATFOR Doc493

Edition Date:

28/02/13
v1.0
28/02/2013

Abstract
This report presents the 2013 EUROCONTROL forecast of both instrument flight rules (IFR) flights
and Total en-route Service Units in Europe in 2013-2019. It has been prepared by EUROCONTROL
Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) in December 2012-February 2013 and it replaces the
seven-year flight and service units forecast of September 2012.
This document contains a description and discussion of the main results as well as a comparison
with previously published results.

STATFOR
Movements
Service Units

Air Traffic
Flight Movements
Short-term

Keywords
Forecast
Trends

Contact Person(s)

Tel
X3209
X5085

An De Bondt
Elsa Freville

Medium-Term
Traffic Flow

Unit
DNM/FTA STATFOR
DNM/FTA STATFOR

STATUS, AUDIENCE AND ACCESSIBILITY


Status
Working Draft
Draft
Proposed Issue
Released Issue

Intended for
Accessible via
Intranet
General Public
EATMP Stakeholders Extranet
Internet (www.eurocontrol.int)
Restricted Audience
Printed & electronic copies of the document can be obtained from
the Publications (see page iii)

ELECTRONIC SOURCE
Path:

M:\OMR\FTA\STATFOR\Documents\493 Combined MTF MTSUF Feb13

Host System
Windows_NT

Page iv

Software

Size
Microsoft Word 10.0

Released Issue

6550 Kb

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Publications
EUROCONTROL Headquarters
96 Rue de la Fuse
B-1130 BRUSSELS
Tel:
Fax:
E-mail:

+32 (0)2 729 4715


+32 (0)2 729 5149

publications@eurocontrol.int

Open on 08:00 - 15:00 UTC from Monday to Thursday, incl.

DOCUMENT APPROVAL
The following table identifies all management authorities who have successively approved
the present issue of this document.

AUTHORITY

NAME AND SIGNATURE

DATE

D. Marsh
Head of Forecasting &
Traffic Analysis

B. Flynn
Head of Operational
Monitoring & Reporting

J. Sultana
Chief Operating
Officer
Directorate Network
Management

J. Dopagne
Director Network
Management

2013 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL).
This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole
or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and to the extent justified by the
non-commercial use (not for sale). The information in this document may not be modified without prior
written permission from EUROCONTROL.
The use of the document is at the users sole risk and responsibility. EUROCONTROL expressly
disclaims any and all warranties with respect to any content within the document, express or implied.

The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page v

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD


The following table records the complete history of the successive editions of the present
document.

EDITION
NUMBER

EDITION
DATE

v0.1

26/02/13

Draft for internal review

All

v1.0

28/02/13

Final version

All

Page vi

INFOCENTRE
REFERENCE

REASON FOR CHANGE

Released Issue

PAGES
AFFECTED

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................1
1.1

General......................................................................................................................................1

1.2

Summary of Forecast Methods.................................................................................................1

2. FLIGHT AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2012 ...............................................3


3. FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS ......................................................10
4. GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHTS TO 2019 .................................................................13
4.1

Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)...........................................................................................13

4.2

Medium-term outlook (up to 2019)..........................................................................................16

4.3

Comparison with previous forecast.........................................................................................20

4.4

Airport Constraints ..................................................................................................................21

4.5

High-Speed Train ....................................................................................................................22

5. SERVICE UNITS GROWTH TO 2019.................................................................24


5.1

Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)...........................................................................................24

5.2

Medium-term outlook (2015 to 2019)......................................................................................25

6. RISK TO THE FORECAST GROWTH................................................................28


7. GLOSSARY ........................................................................................................30
Annex A. FORECAST METHODS .........................................................................31
A.1

Flight Forecast ........................................................................................................................31

A.2

Service Units Forecast ............................................................................................................35

Annex B. TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITONS ..........................................................37


B.1

ESRA08...................................................................................................................................37

B.2

Traffic regions .........................................................................................................................38

B.3

Functional Airspace Blocks .....................................................................................................40

Annex C. SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS .......................................42


C.1

Economic growth.....................................................................................................................42

C.2

Events and Trends ..................................................................................................................45

C.3

Low-Cost Carrier Growth ........................................................................................................48

C.4

Load Factors ...........................................................................................................................50

C.5

High-Speed train Network Development.................................................................................52

C.6

Airport Capacity.......................................................................................................................53

C.7

Airport Traffic Switch ...............................................................................................................54

C.8

Airline schedules .....................................................................................................................54

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page vii

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Annex D. SUMMARY OF IFR MOVEMENTS FORECAST FOR EUROPE ...........56


Annex E.

FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH.......................................................59

Annex F.

STATE BY STATE TWO-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST............69

Annex G. SEVEN-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE ..................72


Annex H. REFERENCES .......................................................................................79

Page viii

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

List of Figures.
Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08). ..................................................... i
Figure 2. Average annual flight growth 2012-2019 per State................................................... ii
Figure 3. Summary of service units forecast for EUROCONTROL Member States (CRCO11).
.......................................................................................................................................... ii
Figure 4. EU GDP forecasts for 2012 have seen strong downward revisions. ........................3
Figure 5. Fuel Prices have remained high throughout 2012. ...................................................4
Figure 6. Load factors of European cross-border and international traffic have reached record
high values. .......................................................................................................................4
Figure 7. Actual traffic of 2012 compared with the forecast of February 2012.........................5
Figure 8. Traffic losses have reduced over the summer for the main contributors to European
traffic. ................................................................................................................................5
Figure 9. Turkey remains main contributor and fast grower and Poland and Ukraine traffic
was boosted by EURO2012..............................................................................................6
Figure 10. Russia is the first non-European destination adding flights. ...................................7
Figure 11. Low-cost is back to growth since this summer and Charter is recovering from the
Arab Spring. ......................................................................................................................8
Figure 12. Market share of the Low-Cost segment increased by 1 percentage point in 2012. 8
Figure 13. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO11 area in 2009-2012................9
Figure 14. EU GDP forecasts have seen strong downward revisions for 2013. ...................10
Figure 15. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook for EU27 has been revised
downwards and remains lower in the later years by 0.6 pp. ...........................................11
Figure 16. Summary of forecast for Europe. ..........................................................................13
Figure 17. States forecast detail for 2013. .............................................................................15
Figure 18. States forecast detail for 2014. .............................................................................16
Figure 19. Average Annual Growth per State, 2019 v 2012...................................................17
Figure 20. Number of additional movements per day for each state (2019 v 2012). .............18
Figure 21. Flows adding the most movements, 2019 v 2012................................................18
Figure 22. IFR flight growth in Europe will stay persistently below pre-2009 long-term trend.
........................................................................................................................................19
Figure 23. Average annual growth rates for FABs, 2019 v 2012. ..........................................19
Figure 24. For Europe, current forecast stands below the low-scenario of the MTF12b in
2013 and will remain lower than the previous baseline...................................................20
Figure 25. Forecast revision for 2018 per State (Source: EUROCONTROL). .......................21
Figure 26. Impact of airport constraints..................................................................................22
Figure 27. Impact of high-speed train: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08 (top) and
most affected States (bottom). ........................................................................................23
Figure 28: Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe............................................26
Figure 29: Comparison 2012-2017 of the forecast between the current forecast and
September 2012 for CRCO11 Area. ...............................................................................26
Figure 30. Average annual growth of service units between 2012 and 2019.........................27
Figure 31. Summary of short-term forecast method...............................................................31
Figure 32. Preparation process of the Medium-Term Forecast..............................................33
Figure 33. Service units forecast method...............................................................................35
Figure 34. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area. ...............................................37
Figure 35. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012. ..........................................38
Figure 36. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012. .............39

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page ix

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 37. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics before 31 August 2012............40
Figure 38. FAB initiatives as of August 2012. ........................................................................41
Figure 39. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook for EU27 has been revised
downwards for 2013 and remains lower in the later years..............................................42
Figure 40. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2012-2014 for EU27: constant
downward revisions from end 2011. ...............................................................................43
Figure 41. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone.................................................................................44
Figure 42. GDP growth by Origin-Destination Zone...............................................................45
Figure 43. GDP growth by Traffic Region. .............................................................................45
Figure 44. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone..................................................47
Figure 45. Low-cost effects by Traffic Zone. ..........................................................................49
Figure 46. European load factors reached record highs during the whole year 2012 (source
data: AEA.)......................................................................................................................51
Figure 47. Load factors by Traffic Region. .............................................................................52
Figure 48. High Speed Train times evolution as from 2013 to 2019. ....................................52
Figure 49. The schedule expects a monthly decline of around -3% to -4% for Europe until the
end of the Winter schedule. ............................................................................................54
Figure 50. Growth in Europe ..................................................................................................56
Figure 51. Flights on main flow categories in Europe ............................................................57
Figure 52. Flights and growth on biggest region-to-region flows in Europe ...........................58
Figure 53. Forecast Summary: Annual IFR Movements 2008-2019 ......................................59
Figure 54. Forecast Summary: Annual traffic growth rates 2008-2019..................................64
Figure 55. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2013-2014. ....................69
Figure 56. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 2013-2014. .........71
Figure 57. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2008-2019. ....................72
Figure 58. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units growth 2008-2019. ........75

Page x

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
This report presents the forecast of annual numbers of instrument flight rules (IFR)
flight movements and of total service units (TSU) for 2013 to 2019 prepared by the
EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) in December 2012February 2013. This replaces the previous forecasts, such as those issued in
September 2012 (Ref. 1 and Ref. 2) and December 2012.
This report contains a summary and discussion of the forecast, starting with a
discussion of traffic in 2012 (Section 2), the assumptions made in the forecast
scenarios (Section 3), some highlights from first the flight forecast then the service
units forecast (Section 4 and 5), and the risks going with this forecast (Section 6).
More details are provided in the annexes: forecast methods (Annex A), geographical
definitions (Annex B), forecast assumptions (Annex C), flight forecast details for
Europe as a whole (Annex D) then flight forecast totals per State (Annex E), two-year
forecast of service units per state (Annex F) and finally the seven-year forecast per
state of service units (Annex G). The detail of the flight forecast for each State) is
provided on STATFOR website (Ref. 3).
STATFOR also prepares a 20-year forecast to be published in June 2013 and will be
available on the STATFOR web pages (Ref. 4). An update of the first two years of
this flight forecast will be published in May 2013 along with an updated of the sevenyear service units forecast. Both forecasts for the all seven years will be refreshed in
September, taking into account the latest traffic and economic conditions.

1.2 Summary of Forecast Methods


The EUROCONTROL seven-year flight forecast grows airport-pair traffic using
models of recent trends, and of future economic and industry developments.
The seven-year flight forecast is a blend of two forecasting methods: time-series
modelling of recent traffic trends; and a model of future flight demand based on
economic growth and other developments. The trend-based modelling provides better
accuracy in the first years, so is more influential in the blend in the first two years. The
economic and industry modelling has more influence on the results for the later years.
The time-series modelling looks at recent and longer-term patterns of growth and
seasonality, taking into account information about one-off events, about economic
growth and available data on the airline schedules for the coming months.
The economic model is developed by growing baseline traffic (all IFR flight
movements for the last calendar year) taking into account factors such as economic
growth, past patterns of supply, the growth of low-cost carriers, and the influence
of high-speed trains.
The results of these processes are then constrained by annual airport capacities
and converted from airport-to-airport counts into flights through airspace volumes
using the flight patterns in the last 12 months and recent trends in how these patterns
are changing. No account of future route network changes is made (see section 6).
More detail of the method is given in Annex A.1.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 1

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Three scenarios are used to capture the likely range of growth of flight movements.
They comprise: the low-growth and high-growth scenario which vary economic
growth, load factors and other variables in order to capture the most-likely range; and
the baseline forecast which is a guidance figure within this range. The scenarios are
discussed in Section 3 and detailed in Annex C.
Experience in recent years has shown the need to take the whole forecast range
(from low-growth to high-growth) into account. For this new forecast, the main areas
of risk are discussed in Section 6.
The seven-year forecast of service units strongly relies on the seven-year flight
forecast.
The forecast of service units uses both monthly data of total service units recorded in
the route charges system as well as flight information such as the average maximum
take-off weight (MTOW) and distance flown. The forecast is based on a combination
of two parallel approaches:

The short-term forecast (two-year) is mainly based on time-series modelling of


trends, seasonal and cyclical patterns in actual monthly service units. It also relies
strongly on the flight or overflight forecast for each state and thus picks up future
information that is included in the flight forecast (economic growth forecasts,
schedule data, future events etc).
The medium-term forecast (seven-year) uses the most recent seven-year flight
forecast as well as trends in the evolution of average distances and MTOW of the
flights across each State.
The detailed forecasting methodology can be found in Annex A.2.

Page 2

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

2. FLIGHT AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2012


Traffic growth in 2012 has been marked by economic weakness in much of
Europe and by several airline failures locally adding to the general traffic decline,
in particular of domestic traffic.
As 2011 drew to a close, any optimism faded away that 2012 might prove to be
stronger economically. The economic forecasts for 2012 had been revised sharply
downwards during 2011, and lost further ground during 2012 itself (see Figure 4), even
if central bank intervention helped to reduce the risk of a Eurozone breakup.
Figure 4. EU GDP forecasts for 2012 have seen strong downward revisions.

During much of 2011, fuel prices had been stable, albeit painfully high but in the first
quarter of 2012 they saw a sharp climb, then a brief dip before returning to around
750 per tonne (see Figure 5). The weakness of the euro, in the first half of the year at
least, exacerbated the situation.
Load factors, on the other hand, continued to record levels (see Figure 6) while traffic
was weak, indicating that their increase was sufficient to absorb demand and thus
became part of air-carriers strategy to increase the profitability of flights in less
favourable economic environment as well as pushing flight growth down.
A number of airlines were also successful in increasing yields, by increasing prices or
by focusing on longer haul. So the summer profitability was better than it might have
been. This came too late, however, to save a number of airlines, including Malev and
Spanair. While some of the remaining airlines continue to expand, the main themes in
the news from airlines were cost-cutting, including cutting back of fleets, and
outsourcing of shorthaul operations.
Meanwhile the political situation in North Africa, particularly Egypt, remained unstable
which meant that the expected recovery was postponed and is likely to further be.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 3

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 5. Fuel Prices have remained high throughout 2012.

Figure 6. Load factors of European cross-border and international traffic have


reached record high values.

As a result of this economic context, traffic growth in 2012 was lower than what was
expected in STATFOR February 2012 forecast (see Figure 7). Total flights for the year
declined by 2.4% in Europe in 2012 compared to 2011 with the greater part of this
decline happening for intra-European flights, which decreased by 3.5% compared to
2011.
After a weak winter season in 2011-2012, even if the summer schedule showed some
signs of improvement, it was not sustained and the beginning of winter 2012-2013
showed far more rapid decline than in the same period in 2011 with an average decline
of 3.7% over Europe in November 2012 with the beginning of the Winter schedule
compared to the decline of 1% registered in November 2011.

Page 4

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 7. Actual traffic of 2012 compared with the forecast of February 2012.

For the busiest States in Europe, overall traffic declined in 2012 compared to 2011, as
shown in Figure 8:

French traffic decreased by 1.5% whereas it declined by 1.9% in Germany, by


2.3% in Italy, by 6.5% in Spain, and by 1.4% in the United Kingdom.
Except in France, traffic declined mainly on domestic flows, which contracted by
17.9% in Spain, 8.3% in Italy, 6.4% in Germany and by 3.1% in the UK. As
discussed, the immediate causes here included local airline restructuring (such
as airberlin in Germany and Iberia in Spain) and failures (eg. Spanair in Spain).
Overflights remained in decline, except in Italy where they grew by 1.5% as Italy
recovered traffic lost in 2011 due to events in North Africa.
Overall, the Summer period, mainly between June and August, had stronger
traffic than in the Winter. France and Italy were even briefly back to weak growth
over this period though not enough to prevent an overall decline in 2012.

Figure 8. Traffic losses have reduced over the summer for the main
contributors to European traffic.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 5

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

For other states, there were wide differences with only a few states whose traffic grew
in 2012. Such countries were mainly in the North and North-East of Europe, such as
Norway (+4.2%), Poland (+4.6%) and Ukraine (+2.9%), the latter two benefiting from
extra traffic for the Euro12 football championship. These three countries appear in the
list of the main contributors to add flights to the network in Figure 9 where Turkey
remained in 2012 the main contributor. However, it hardly added half the amount of
flights it did in 2011 and its overall growth of +2.6% was moderated by a decline of its
overflights by 2.7%. Norways contribution to traffic remained stable compared to 2011
thanks to being relatively insulated from economic issues in the Eurozone. Estonian
international departures grew strongly (+25%) in 2012, as overall traffic in Lithuania
and in Moldova did.
On the other side of Figure 9, Spain is the country that removed the most flights from
the network in 2012, followed by Italy, Germany and the UK as a consequence of the
weakness of their domestic traffic. Strong local traffic decline have also happen in
Hungary (-20%) because of the failure of its national carrier Malev. Airline restructuring,
often resulting in route cuts and frequency reductions on other routes, have also
generated strong declines in Finland (-9%) and in the Czech Republic (-11%).
More generally, flights in South-East European countries showed less growth than they
did in the past, as the region was often affected by weak domestic and international
traffic (arrivals and departures) associated with the weaker economic conditions. Such
declines were not always compensated by the growth of overflights, such as in the
case in Bulgaria, Romania and in the Czech Republic.
In the Balkans, overflights were often in decline or growing very weakly following route
changes of both:

traffic between Western Europe and Turkey or Middle East flying now further East
and North, increasing overflights in Romania in particular;

and traffic between Western Europe and South or East Africa that was flying over
the region in 2011 to avoid the Libyan exclusion area and is now back to its
previous routes more to the West, over Malta in particular whose overflights
strongly grew in 2012.

Figure 9. Turkey remains main contributor and fast grower and Poland and
Ukraine traffic was boosted by EURO2012.

Page 6

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

As shown in Figure 10, Russia has remained since the beginning of the year the
number one destination from Europe adding traffic to the network. However, its growth
has weakened compared to that of 2011: it has added around 100/120 flights/day in
both directions compared to a year ago, a figure that is 35% less than the 160/180
flights/day observed in the summer of 2011. Strong traffic growth from Russia towards
Western Europe and the Mediterranean (eg. to Spain +24%, to France +10.5%, to
Norway +29% and Greece +21%) as well as towards Tunisia, Egypt and the Middle
East has contributed to the growth of flights in Eastern European States. Together with
Turkey, Russia has taken nearly 20% of all aircraft deliveries in 2012 in Europe, a
figure that is expected to reach 30% in 2013 showing the potential for traffic growth
around these two countries. This effect will be the more noticeable since deliveries to
European carriers are reaching a cyclical low-point in 2013.
On the other hand of Figure 10, traffic to the United States has constantly declined
throughout the year to become since October the flow losing the most flights with
losses of around 45 flights/day compared to last year.
In Figure 10, we can also see that flights to Egypt have stopped recovering since
October and remain stable. They remain below 2010 levels that are now not expected
to be back before the return of a stable political situation in the country. Traffic to
Morocco remains declining although it tends to stabilise since the beginning of the
Winter Schedule.
Traffic to the United Arab Emirates has remained constantly growing by around 20
flights/day both ways despite the weaker economic context and traffic to Israel is now
back to growth since the summer after a weak winter 2011-2012 season.

Figure 10. Russia is the first non-European destination adding flights.

Figure 11 shows that all market segments started the year in decline. Since then, over
the whole 2012 year, the charter segment (non-scheduled) has grown by 2.8% in 2012
compared to last year as a consequence of the recovery to traffic to North Africa. Lowcost traffic also stands in 2012 on the positive side of the growth with 1.6% thanks in
particular to a strong summer that saw a growth of more than 5% in July and August.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 7

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

In Figure 12, we can also see that the market share of the low-cost segment grew by
1 percentage point in 2012 compared to 2011, a growth mainly taken from the
traditional segment. This change can be associated both to the failure of traditional
airlines (eg. Malev and Spanair) whose traffic has been partially taken over by low-cost
companies (eg. Wizzair for Spanair and Ryanair for Malev) and to the fact that some
traditional airlines have also opened low-cost subsidiaries like Iberia that created
Iberia-Express.
The other main segments, traditional, business aviation and all-cargo flights also saw
steady decline during the year of around 4%, in flights compared to 2011.
Figure 11. Low-cost is back to growth since this summer and Charter is
recovering from the Arab Spring.

Figure 12. Market share of the Low-Cost segment increased by 1 percentage


point in 2012.

Page 8

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 13 presents the monthly evolution of the total service units (TSU) recorded in
the member states of EUROCONTROL in 2012 (CRCO11) that is used as our
reference region.
In 2012, subject to the same difficult economic conditions as the flights, 121.6 million
service units (TSU) were produced. This was a drop of 1.3% compared to the peak
year of 2011; and only the second year of decline, the other being 2009. Overall TSU
declined to a lesser extent than flights resulting from increases in both average weight
and average distance flown..
It was the Summer that came nearest in 2012 to growing beyond 2011 values,
buoyed by stronger flights. TSU just reached levels of the peak 2011 numbers after
the 2009 dip. Lower growth rates were then again observed from the start of the
weaker winter schedule with TSU falling back to 2010 numbers.
Higher February growth rates can be explained by the 2012 leap year effect as TSU
are expressed in monthly totals.
Figure 13. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO11 area in 20092012.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 9

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

3. FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS


The main influencing factors for both flight and service unit forecasts are: cuts
in forecast economic growth (notably in 2013) followed by a weak recovery;
weak traffic since the beginning of the Winter schedule; airline weakness
struggling to finance their operations and keep them profitable, including fleet
reductions. These and other factors have been built into the set of scenario
assumptions (see Annex C) used for the flight forecast.
Figure 14. EU GDP forecasts have seen strong downward revisions for 2013.

Source : Oxford Economics

Firstly GDP forecasts: We continue to see cuts in forecasts of economic growth, for
2013 and also for 2014. According to Oxford Economics, European real GDP will
grow by 0.1% in 2013 (a 1.5 percentage point downward revision on the GDP
forecast dated January 2012 as shown in Figure 14). More importantly, the updated
economic forecast shows also a downward revision in the medium-term (see Figure
15): the GDP growth trend is now cut by 0.6 percentage point (pp) compared to what
was expected in September 2012. More details on this are provided in Annex C.1.
As far as the recent traffic growth is concerned, after a reduction in traffic losses in
the Summer, notably for busiest States, as shown in Figure 7, traffic is now
decreasing again by amounts lower than the nadir observed in the winter last year.
Consequently, this will influence the traffic forecast downwards, which is confirmed by
the 3 to 4% decline showed in the current outlook of the airline schedules until the
end of March 2013.
The trend is also to weakness of national airlines that have announced fleet
reductions in 2013 such as in Spain and the Canary Islands but also in Poland,
Germany and the United Kingdom, which are likely to impact traffic downwards: this
has been considered (see Annex C.2). In 2012, around 10 European airlines have
ceased to exist including one national carrier, sometimes generating significant gaps
in the traffic of the country where they were based, often at a domestic level and
international level. Considering the current weak economy it is not impossible that

Page 10

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

similar situations occur in 2013 even if they are hard to forecast precisely and if airline
extensive restructuring and cost-cutting plans to raise their profitability might mitigate
this risk.
Figure 15. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook for EU27 has
been revised downwards and remains lower in the later years by 0.6 pp.

In addition to these changes, traffic to North Africa and in particular to Egypt remains
weak and is likely to stay so as long as political instability remains in the area. As a
consequence, we are no longer including in our assumptions a return to 2010 levels,
as it was the case in the two releases of the seven-year flight forecast published in
2012. This slow recovery had generated in particular in 2012 lower overflights than
forecasted, mainly around the Adriatic coast and over Turkey.
Other inputs include:

Low-cost: For this flight forecast we have reviewed the assumptions about lowcost market share growth to take into account the fact that its market share has
grown more strongly this year than in the recent past. The impact has in
particular affected the forecast for countries like Hungary and Spain where
some slots of a traditional airline have been taken over by low-cost companies.
It has also had an impact upwards on some Eastern-European and NorthernEuropean countries where low-cost companies have recently entered the airline
market.
Load Factors: The forecast projects these to increase further. We have
nonetheless increased now the extent to which they are likely to grow in view of
the recent trend of airlines to increase them to their practical maximum.
Compared to previous forecasts, we have also considered that high load factors
were rather a contributing factor to low flight growth instead of a contributing
factor to high growth as it was considered previously: recent increase of load
factors has shown that they could still grow and were sufficient to absorb flight
demand. As a consequence of this change, this has now increased the range of
the flight forecast in line with the increased uncertainty surrounding the current
economic context.
High-Speed train: High-speed train developments have been reviewed and
updated. However, if some plans have not been affected by the current

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 11

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

economic downturn, plans to develop high-speed train in Portugal have been


stopped and are now no longer included into our inputs.
Airport Capacity: These numbers have been refreshed based on inputs from
the Challenges of Growth 2013 study, via a EUROCONTROL project called the
Airport Corner that collects directly from airports information about their future
development and capacity plans. Not as many airports contributed to this data
collection compared to 2012.
Events and Trends: We have assumed scenarios to forecast the impact on airtraffic growth in Croatia and Iceland when they join the EU. As fleet reductions
have been considered, for balance, information about fleet increase in Turkey
has also been taken into account in a similar way to get closer to the reality of
flight growth there, far stronger than the economic growth would just suggest.
Emissions trading: The aviation industry has joined the EU ETS in 2012.
However, the scope of its application has been reduced to intra European
flights, reducing its impact. Considering the uncertainty around its scope of
application in the medium-term, and the fact that carbon prices are now very low
(around 5 euros/tonne, see Ref. 5), we have estimated that its impact on flight
demand would not be significant for this forecast. This component has thus
been de-activated.
More information about these inputs and assumptions can be found in Annex C.

Page 12

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

4. GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHTS TO 2019


The weakness of the economic situation in Europe and the financial difficulties
of the air traffic industry are reflected with the new forecast that is for 11.2
million IFR movements (1 million) in Europe in 2019, 17% more than in 2012.
The first year of the forecast expects a flight decline of 1.3%. However,
considering the uncertainty around the European economy, we also draw
attention to the low forecast which has a decline of 2.9% in 2013.
In the following years, growth is expected to be back at around 3% per year.
The 2008 peak of traffic of 10.1 million flights is now expected to be passed
only in 2016, thus a year later than expected in the September 2012 forecast,
when traffic reaches 10.3 million flights ( 0.6 million).
Figure 16. Summary of forecast for Europe.
ESRA08
2009
IFR Flight Movements
(Thousands)

Annual Growth
(compared to
previous year)

4.1

2010

2012

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2013

2014

9,559

9,924 10,358 10,835 11,222 11,658 12,079

3.4%

9,493 9,784 9,548

9,424

9,689

9,975 10,298 10,576 10,885 11,195

2.3%

2011

AAGR
2019/
2012

9,413

9,276

9,409

9,517

9,690

9,815

9,969 10,132

0.9%

0.1%

3.8%

4.4%

4.6%

3.6%

3.9%

3.6%

3.4%

-6.6%

0.8%

3.1% -2.4%

-1.3%

2.8%

3.0%

3.2%

2.7%

2.9%

2.8%

2.3%

-2.9%

1.4%

1.2%

1.8%

1.3%

1.6%

1.6%

0.9%

Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)


In the short-term, following a 0.5% cut in economic growth for 2013 and the recent
weak traffic trends since the beginning of the Winter schedule, the 2013 forecast has
been revised downwards compared to the September 2012 forecast by 1.3
percentage points to -1.3% (see Figure 17). This revision adds to the low outturn in
2012 that saw traffic decline by 2.4% below 2011 traffic levels and thus now places
2013 traffic hardly above the minimum of traffic observed in 2009.
This forecast is provided with a low scenario expecting a 2.9% decline in traffic that
must be taken seriously considering the current uncertainty surrounding the economy
of the Eurozone and the possibility that other airlines fail. The forecast also includes a
high growth scenario that just scrapes a 0.1% increase in traffic: such an outcome
could be possible only if traffic trends were to improve significantly during the summer
and were maintained with the beginning of next Winter schedule.
In regional terms, there is still declining traffic expected for 2013 in the ESRA
Mediterranean region (Spain, Canary Islands, Italy, Portugal and Greece
arrivals/departures and internals all declining). The climate for leisure travel in these
States remains soft. There are however two exceptions in the region that are still
expected to see their traffic grow in 2013.
The first exception is Turkey whose traffic is expected to grow by +9.8% in 2013
notably thanks to its strong domestic traffic growth but also to the traffic from/to

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 13

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Middle East, North Africa and Russia. The forecast of its domestic traffic and
international arrivals/departures is also expected to be boosted as a consequence of
its fleet expansion and this explains why, amongst all the other states in the region, it
is one of the few forecasts that have been revised upwards. Growth of turkish traffic,
of course, through network effects also increases traffic particularly in neighbouring
States.
Malta is also expected to grow by +8.4% in 2013 but this will be more linked to the
growth of its overflights that should still catch up during the first few months of the
year from the losses linked to the Libyan exclusion area that was still active at the
beginning of 2012. Since the re-opening of the Libyan airspace, Maltese overflights
have grown more strongly than expected figures and the forecast has also been
consequently revised upwards. Nevertheless, after the strong disruption in 2011 and
with the situation in North Africa remaining changeable, the traffic outlook remains
particularly uncertain for Malta.
In the ESRA North West region, mainly as a consequence of significant downward
revisions of the GDP forecast of most states there, all forecasts have been revised
downwards compared to the September 2012 forecast. All countries are now
expected to see their traffic decline, except Norway whose forecast has nonetheless
been revised downwards but should see its traffic grow by 0.8% in 2013 (instead of
+1.6% expected in the September 2012 forecast). The traffic growths in other
countries of the ESRA North West region have all been revised downwards by at
least 1 percentage point with extreme revisions in Finland (from +0.5% in the
September 2012 forecast to -4.7% expected in 2013, in part because of weak
domestic and international traffic departing of landing in Finland), Switzerland (from
+2.1% to -2.5% in 2013) and in Austria (-3.3% from +1.4% to a -1.9% expected in
2013).
If most revisions are a consequence of significant downward updates of the GDP
forecast, the situation is slightly different for Switzerland and Austria whose GDP
forecasts have not been revised significantly but whose recent traffic trends have
been much lower than expected in the September 2012 forecast, in particular since
the beginning of the Winter schedule. Part of this trend is linked to airline restructuring
that has already and will further cut traffic on routes around the area. For example,
Austrian overflights have been affected by a reduction of flights leaving or departing
from Germany. As for Switzerland, the lower traffic trends might also be linked to the
relatively high unit rate of the country compared to the other states in the area.
The forecasts in France (-1.6%) and Germany (-1.7%) have both been reduced by 2
percentage points whereas the UK forecast (-1.4%) has been revised downwards by
1 percentage point.
Most of the forecasts for ESRA Eastern States have been revised downwards.
Reduced levels of arrival/departure traffic after airline failures and restructuring
(Czech Republic and Hungary) have impacted the traffic trends downwards. Many
economies are also weak in the area, which has generated traffic decline for arrivals
and departures in many cases (eg. Bulgaria and Romania). These trends have
consequently led to a revision downwards of the forecast. Nevertheless, overflights
are still expected to grow in the area and this growth will compensate for the loss of
local traffic.
Poland and Ukraine are also expected to see lower growth in 2013 than expected in
September 2012. In part, this is the counter effect of the boost in traffic they had in
2012 because of the EURO2012, but the traffic is also expected to be reduced as a

Page 14

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

consequence of weaknesses of local airlines: LOT Polish Airlines is expected to


reduce by about a third its fleet in 2013, and Aerosvit has ceased its operations in
Ukraine, at least for the moment. These two companies had a significant market
share in 2012 (around 20% of international arrivals/departures) and the amount of
their consequent traffic cuts is expected to be significant. This has been considered in
the assumptions of the forecast (see Annex C.2).
Northern Adriatic States are expected to see almost no additional traffic in 2013
compared to 2012, in their most important flow which is overflights. The forecasts
there have been revised downwards mostly as part of the slower-than-expected traffic
recovery from North Africa 2011 disruptions. The forecast no longer includes any
bounce back from these disruptions, just organic growth.
Estonian traffic has been significantly revised downwards after a strong growth in
2012 mainly linked to its international departures that have grown by 25%. These are
now expected to significantly decline as the national airline plans to cut half of its
fleet, which will also impact the overall forecast.
Figure 17. States forecast detail for 2013.

With a 1.6% growth in GDP expected in 2014 (see Section 3), Figure 18 shows that
year 2014 is expected to see traffic growth back (+2.8%, with a range between +1.4%
and +3.8%). This is equivalent in terms of growth to what was expected in the
September 2012 forecast (+0.1 pp), except that the lower traffic expected in 2013 will
generate consequently lower traffic levels than in the previous forecast.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 15

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 18. States forecast detail for 2014.

Morocco
3.2%

4.2

Medium-term outlook (up to 2019)


After 2014, the traffic growth in Europe stabilises at around a 2.9% increase per year
slowing somewhat from 2017 mainly as the airport capacity constraints become an
issue (see Section 4.4). In 2019, traffic is expected to reach 11.2 million IFR
movements ( 1 million flights). The 2008 peak of traffic of 10.1 million flights is now
expected to be passed only in 2016, thus a year later than expected in the September
2012 forecast, when traffic reaches 10.3 million flights ( 0.6 million). As Figure 22
shows, flight growth is expected to remain well below the pre-2009 long-term trend
and is expected to remain below that trend. There are upside and downside risks to
this forecast which are detailed in Section 6.
As Figure 19 and Figure 20 show, the growth is not uniform across Europe. While the
growth in percentage terms is clearly stronger in the East (more growth potential than
in the more mature Western markets), the busiest Western States (eg. Germany, UK)
will see the highest number of additional movements between now and 2019 as well
as Turkey (Figure 19). Turkey will remain the fastest grower and main contributor to
European traffic growth with turkish internals, in particular, being the flow adding the
most flights over the next 7 years (see Figure 21). Flows from Turkey towards Russia,
Germany, the Middle-East and Asia-Pacific are also expected to stand amongst the
fastest growing in Europe.

Page 16

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 19. Average Annual Growth per State, 2019 v 2012.

Figure 23 shows the corresponding Figure 19 at functional airspace block (FAB) level.
The Danube FAB is expected to have the highest average annual growth rate
(+4.7%) followed by the Baltic FAB (+3.5%) over the next 7 years. FABEC (the
busiest European FAB with more than 15,000 flights per day in 2012), will experience
more limited average annual growth rate of around 1.8%. In terms of additional traffic,
FABEC is likely to add around 13% more flights in 2019 than in 2012, corresponding
to around 2,000 more flights per day on average. Danube FAB is expected to bring
nearly 38% more flights in 2019 than in 2012, adding some 770 flights a day. SouthWest FAB traffic growth is expected to remain the weakest of the FAB (+1.5%) over
the 7 years (adding around 500 flights per day, on average). However this forecast
has been revised upwards by nearly 1% because of a stronger economic forecast for
Spain (eg. increased by 0.7 percentage point in 2013). NEFABs average annual
growth rate between 2012 and 2019 is around 1.8% per year on average,
corresponding to around 350 flights per day, a revision downwards in particular linked
to weaker growth perspective in Finland.
Annex E gives the details of forecast traffic and growth per State and areas and
illustrates the imbalance in growth.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 17

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 20. Number of additional movements per day for each state (2019 v
2012).

Figure 21. Flows adding the most movements, 2019 v 2012.

Page 18

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 22. IFR flight growth in Europe will stay persistently below pre-2009
long-term trend.
30%

15
Long-Term Trend
Before 2009

10

1960-2012 historical figures


2013-2019 forecast

25%
20%

Actual
Traffic

Forecast
Traffic

Long-Term
Average
Growth

15%
10%
5%
0%

Annual
Growth

-5%
1960
-5

1965

1970

1975 1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010 2015

2020

EUROCONTROL 2013. w w w .eurocontrol.int/statfor

-10%

Figure 23. Average annual growth rates for FABs, 2019 v 2012.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 19

Annual Growth

Flights in Europe (Million)

IFR traffic in Europe

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

4.3

Comparison with previous forecast


Figure 24 illustrates that the current forecast (MTF13) for total Europe starts lower
than the low scenario of the seven-year forecast released in September 2012
(MTF12b). Over the first two years, the current base scenario (dark blue solid line) is
now following the low scenario issued in September (light blue dashed line). Indeed,
following the deterioration of the economic outlook in 2013, the flight forecast is now
much lower for next year. With a further flight decline expected in 2013 and
comparable rates of growth in later years the forecast now expects for 2019 only a
slightly higher forecast than the one for 2018 in MTF12b. In 2018, the forecast is
expected to be lower in MTF13 by 2.3%. We have thus nearly lost a year of traffic.

Figure 24. For Europe, current forecast stands below the low-scenario of the
MTF12b in 2013 and will remain lower than the previous baseline.

Figure 25 depicts the size of the revisions in this forecast compared to the September
2012 forecast for total traffic per State in 2018, the last common year of these two
forecasts. Most of the forecast have been revised downwards except for Turkey and
Hungary. In the short-term, Maltese and Azerbaijan traffic have also been revised
upwards thanks to stronger recent traffic trends but this will not last after 2016 as their
economic growths have both been revised downwards.

Page 20

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 25. Forecast revision for 2018 per State (Source: EUROCONTROL).

4.4

Airport Constraints
Constraints at airports mean that demand for some 135,000 flights cannot be
accommodated by 2019, which means a 1.2% reduction in growth over 20122019. Just as traffic has been postponed by a year, the levels of
unaccommodated demand have also been postponed by year. The location of
the constrained airports sometimes also differs, as the set of airports with
future capacity limits has been fully revisited for the Challenges of Growth 2013
study.
This forecast uses a fully refreshed set of airport capacity figures covering some 105
airports, building on:

The systematic work done for the update of the Challenges of Growth 2013
study (Ref. 6), that is to say using a homogeneous source of data compiled by
the EUROCONTROL Airport unit from submissions from around 70 airports.
The additional data received from STATFOR User Group members, especially
the Navigation Service Providers who helped completing the above mentioned
sample when the data was missing.
In the baseline scenario in 2019, demand for around 135,500 departures will not be
accommodated due to airport congestion (Figure 26, mainly in Norway, UK, France,
Switzerland and Germany). This will reduce the growth in departures by 1.2% across
Europe as a whole between 2012 and 2019. The reduction in growth will, of course,
be more marked in the States with congested airports, and is more significant in the
high-growth scenario.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 21

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Compared to last year, there has been both a temporal and a geographical shift
location of the most constrained airports. Firstly, in the current forecast release, the
airports in Europe will see an unaccommodated demand of around 50,000 departures
from 2017 whereas it was previously forecast between 2 and 3 years earlier in last
years release.
Overall, a lower traffic forecast, and a complete revision of the capacity figures lead to
a number of unaccommodated flights lower than the one in the previous seven-year
forecast (excess demand of around 134,000 departures in 2018 in MTF12, see Ref. 7
compared to 88,000 in this forecast).
Figure 26. Impact of airport constraints.
Unit: Reduction in IFR Departures when airport constraints are taken into account
Change in IFR Departures (000s)
2013 2014 2015

2017

2018

2019

87.4 101.9 166.8 253.1 372.5 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 1.4% 2.1%

3.0%

87.9 135.5 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8%

1.2%

18.8

0.3%

High

3.9

32.3

Base

0.6

6.9

21.0

36.2

57.7

0.8

8.2

Low

4.5

2016

2018

Percentage Change
2019

2013

31.1

2014

2015

2016

2017

. 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%

High-Speed Train
Expansion of the high-speed train network reduces flight growth by just 0.4%
over 7 years, though the local effects are more significant. In flight terms, this
is a slightly smaller impact than in the previous forecast over the whole
horizon.
In the forecast model, an improvement in travel times for rail leads to a reduction in
demand for air travel. Figure 27 summarises the number of IFR departures that are
lost to rail because of improvements in the high speed train (HST) network. The effect
is around 0.4% in total over the 7 years of the forecast; which is small on the scale of
the network as a whole. However, on specific city-pairs, the effect can be quite large,
especially at the end of the horizon. A good part of the HST projects have been
delayed (postponed from 1 to 5 years and even not in the scope of this forecast
anymore), not only due to the economic crisis but for some of them, because of
environmental and political issues. Some others have been cancelled (eg. the Lisbon
to Madrid link withdrawn in 2012). For these reasons and owing to the lower levels of
traffic, the current reduction in traffic is smaller than in the MTF12 results (see Ref. 7)
in which around 47,000 IFR departures were assessed to be removed in 2018 from
the network. It is now expected that a reduction of 34,600 IFR departures only will
happen in 2018. The HST network is assumed to grow more slowly in the high flightgrowth scenario, hence lower values for the High in the Figure 27.
As far as States are concerned, Germany and Turkey will see the largest impacts in
terms of departures: reduction of nearly 14,000 and 25,000 IFR departures
respectively in 2019 which correspond to around 1% and almost 3% of traffic
(respectively) in the States. The effects are mainly due to the Nrnberg-Berlin and
Frankfurt-Stuttgart lines in Germany and Istanbul-Ankara-Sivas and Istanbul-Konya
for Turkey. France and Netherlands are less affected with around 4,000 fewer IFR

Page 22

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

departures (each). Spain, where some of the projects have been affected by serious
delays or even cancelled sees now a reduction of 0.3% of its IFR departures by 2018
due to HST where the latter was estimated to remove around 2.2% in the MTF12
results (same year of comparison).

Figure 27. Impact of high-speed train: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08
(top) and most affected States (bottom).
Unit: Reduction in IFR Departures when airport High-Speed train network development in Europe is
taken into account
Change in IFR Departures (000s)

Percentage Change

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

High

0.9

2.7

10.7

22.0

19.1

29.7

. 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%

0.2%

Base

2.4

6.1

10.0

23.1

28.9

34.6

44.9 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%

0.4%

Low

2.4

5.9

13.5

22.5

28.2

42.9

54.7 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%

0.5%

Change in IFR Departures (000s)

Percentage Change

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

3.7 0.1% 0.2%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

. 0.0%

0.0%

0.1%

0.2%

0.6%

1.1%

0.9

2.4

0.2

2.2

4.4

3.0

0.1

0.1

0.6

2.0

7.7

0.9

2.0

2.0

2.8

3.6

3.6

3.7 0.3% 0.7%

0.7%

1.0%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

0.3

1.6

2.7

2.6

2.2

2.1

. 0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.4%

0.3%

0.3%

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.3

. 0.1% 0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

Turkey

6.1

13.7

15.4

20.2

24.9

0.9%

1.9%

1.9%

2.4%

2.7%

UK

0.5

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.1%

Base France
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
Switzerland

Edition Number: v1.0

13.8

Released Issue

Page 23

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

5.

SERVICE UNITS GROWTH TO 2019


Airlines, confronted with persistent high oil prices and a weaker economic
outlook (notably in 2013), are reducing flight frequencies, fleets and cutting
unprofitable routes. In particular this has led to weaker traffic since the
beginning of the winter schedule. TSU are linked to the evolution of flights and
overflights. So, just as the flight forecast has been revised downwards in the
short term, the forecast for 2013 TSU is also revised downwards by 1.5
percentage points to now remain almost unchanged with a slight decline by
0.1% and reach around 121.5 million. Some of the current downward risks, due
to economic uncertainty are captured in the low-growth scenario, involving a
1.7% fall in TSU in 2013.
From 2014, TSU growth is expected to return but slower than the pre-2008
average growth rates: it should average 2.8% per year for the whole 2012-19
period. The low-growth scenario, capturing economic uncertainty and other
down-side risks foresees an average growth rate of 1.3% per year for 2012 to
2019.

5.1 Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)


Actual 2012 en-route service units ended lower than expected. In 2012, 121.6 million
service units (TSU) were produced. This represents a drop of 1.3% compared to
2011, a second decline since the 2009 dip after growth figures of about 3.5% and 5%
for 2010 and 2011. TSU growth continues to follow flight growth, though in a lesser
extent as average weight and distance factors increase.
These lower actuals combined with the downwards-revised 2013 flight forecast
(Section 4.1 1 ), TSU growth is revised again downwards by 1.5 percentage points to
now remain almost unchanged with a slight decline by 0.1% and reach around 121.5
million. The September 2012 forecasts of 124.4 million TSU had already been revised
downwards (by 2.3%) compared to the 125.6 million units, published in May 2012.
Figure 55 presents the 2013 and 2014 total service units forecast per State prepared
by STATFOR on behalf of CRCO at the end of February 2013.
Not all countries are expected to see a decline in their TSU. The gap between
Western and Eastern European countries is clearly visible in Figure 30. On one side
France, Germany, Italy and Spain and the majority of the Western European
countries show decreasing TSU, compared to weak yet positive forecasts in
September. On the other side we see the Eastern European countries and Norway
with downward revisions yet still with limited growth. The major upward revision is for
Turkey, seeing its TSU growth rate revised from 3.1% to 7.7% as a result of upward
revision of the flight forecast.
The total en-route service units in the EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO11)
are expected to grow by 3.4% in 2014 compared to 2013 and reach 125.7 million.
This is an upward revision compared to the 3.0% growth and 128.3 million units,
published in September 2012. This change is consistent with the flight forecast
(upward revision from +2.7% to 2.8%). After 2014, flight and thus service units
1

from 0.0% to -1.3% for flights in the ESRA08

Page 24

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

growths are then expected to return, but slower than the pre-2008 average growth
rates.
Estimates of chargeable service units per State in 2013 and 2014, based on
EUROCONTROL TSU forecasts and numbers of exempted service units in 2012, are
presented in Figure 56. The chargeable service units in CRCO11 in 2013 and 2014
are estimated to amount to 120.0 million and 124.1 million respectively (based on
2012 relationship between total and chargeable service units and calculated on the
baseline scenario).

5.2

Medium-term outlook (2015 to 2019)


The medium-term forecast has been fully updated and the horizon has been
extended by an additional year 2019, to bring it in line with the seven year horizon of
the flight forecast.
Flight growth stabilises at around a 2.9% increase per year slowing as of 2017 as the
airport capacity constraints become an issue (see Section 4.4).
Based on these lower TSU numbers for 2013 and a revised medium-term flight
forecast, the TSU are expected to be about 22% higher in 2019 than in 2012,
reaching in total around 147.7 million, representing a baseline scenario average
growth of 2.8% per year, implying an annual growth of 3.3% as of 2014
onwards.
Figure 29 compares the evolution of the forecast between the September 2012
forecast (Ref. 2) and this new forecast release for the CRCO11 grouping. The TSU
forecast has been adapted downwards, resulting in lower 2017 TSU 138.6 million
compared to the previously forecasted 141.9 million TSU in 2017 (decline of -2.3%).
Any user of this seven-year forecast is reminded to consult the entire forecast range
(low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside
risks (eg. the economic indicators could further worsen) and upside risks (eg. high
load factors could trigger higher traffic numbers sooner-as-expected). These are
discussed later in Section 6.
In particular, while some of the risks to the Eurozone have diminished it is clear that a
number of significant problems remain. The low growth scenario is designed to
capture some of these downside risks. Without going to the extent of modelling a
partial breakup of the Euro, if the economic recovery is delayed yet again, then a
much slower growth rate, such as that in the low growth scenario is possible.
For the TSU, by 2019, the high-growth scenario has 12.6 million more and low-growth
scenario has 14.3 million fewer TSU than the base scenario (+10% and -12% in terms
of growth respectively).
The average annual growth figures per State can be found in Figure 58. The detailed
forecasts for each State are in Annex G.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 25

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 28: Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe.

2008
Total service units H
(thousands)
B
CRCO11*
L
Total service units H
(thousands)
B
PScheme **
L

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2019/
2012
Growth

123,438 129,108

135,243 142,077 147,783 154,155 160,305

32%

119,521 113,434 117,393 123,211 121,589 121,527 125,682

129,834 134,498 138,595 143,178 147,733

22%

119,576 122,018

123,888 126,531 128,540 130,960 133,479

10%

104,347 108,581

113,382 118,812 123,221 128,091 132,688

28%

98,057 100,579 105,126 103,572 102,768 105,722

108,934 112,558 115,644 119,120 122,526

18%

101,153 102,659

103,971 105,942 107,330 109,063 110,864

7%

104,941

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2019/
2012
AAGR

1.5%

4.6%

4.8%

5.1%

4.0%

4.3%

4.0%

4.0%

-0.1%

3.4%

3.3%

3.6%

3.0%

3.3%

3.2%

2.8%

-1.7%

2.0%

1.5%

2.1%

1.6%

1.9%

1.9%

1.3%

Annual growth

0.7%

4.1%

4.4%

4.8%

3.7%

4.0%

3.6%

3.6%

PScheme

-0.8%

2.9%

3.0%

3.3%

2.7%

3.0%

2.9%

2.4%

-2.3%

1.5%

1.3%

1.9%

1.3%

1.6%

1.7%

1.0%

Annual growth
CRCO11

H
B

6.1%

5.3%

-5.1%

-6.6%

3.5%

2.6%

5.0%

4.5%

-1.3%

-1.5%

* CRCO11 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012 of all TSU
either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year.
** PScheme stands for the sum over all the 29 states that are currently involved in the EU-wide performance target setting (27
EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland)

Figure 29: Comparison 2012-2017 of the forecast between the current forecast
and September 2012 for CRCO11 Area.

Page 26

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 30. Average annual growth of service units between 2012 and 2019
Average Annual Growth Rates 2019 v 2012

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 27

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

6. RISK TO THE FORECAST GROWTH


Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to
high-growth) as an indicator of risk. These flight and service units forecasts are
prepared in the conditions of unstable economic situation with serious risk of further
aggravation and downside effects on traffic development.
The main sources of uncertainty in the forecast are:

Page 28

The economic forecasts (Annex C.1) used here were updated in January 2013.
The economic outlook remains uncertain and the return to growth has been
delayed. Experience of recent years suggests that we could still see further
downward revisions in growth, and further delay of the recovery. The low
scenario provides some guidance here.
Despite actions to ensure the stability of the Eurozone banking system, the
potential for some States to leave the Euro has not gone completely. Even a
partial eurozone break-up has the potential to take traffic below the low forecast.
Along with the actual uncertainty in economic growth, severe cuts in spending and
tax hikes have been put in place by European States to balance their budgets (eg.
Spain, France). Such state control measures might lead to industrial unrest. The
same applies for the private sector where air industry operators might have to
handle protest from the workforce against saving plans (day-to-day flight
disruption). These represent a downside risk for future traffic development as
presented in this report.
Load factors remain at or near record highs. When traffic begins to grow again,
this means that load factors will be able to absorb less of the passenger growth
than they have in past years. The forecast includes assumptions about the future
development of load factors, but from the present position, the eventual recovery
could come more rapidly than anticipated.
Network changes and the route choice of airlines have a large influence on the
number of overflights. The events of 2011 in North Africa have had an important
impact on overflights particularly for Italy and Malta. There remains the possibility
of additional network disruption, for example around Syria.
More generally, future network changes (eg. new routes) are not modeled by the
forecast. The possible opening of Kosovo airspace is an up-side risk for some
States, but a downside risk for others.
Tourism trends are quite variable. The medium-term forecast aims to be
accurate over the seven-year period, rather than identifying which will be the new
holiday destination of preference in a given year. The recent political instability in
both Egypt and Tunisia has led to more variability in tourism destinations.
Oil prices remain changeable with oil being increasingly an item of speculation
and investment. With fuel accounting for 25-35% or even more of costs of the
airlines, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for customer.
Participation of aviation in the Emission Trading Scheme, currently under
intense debate, was not integrated into this forecast. However, such regulatory
measures (eg. new tax regimes or further environmental limits) contribute to the
uncertainty of air transport growth, can be introduced rapidly and change the local
outlook for flight growth.

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters. The last seven years have not
been quiet ones for aviation. There is no reason to believe the next seven years
will be uneventful, with the effects of a further volcano eruption or an H1N1 flu
pandemic being some of the risks. The impact on air traffic could be a temporary
one, or more significant.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 29

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

7. GLOSSARY
AAGR
ACC
AEA
B
CFMU
CRCO11
ESRA
ETS
EU27
FAB
FIR
GDP
H
ICAO
IFR
L
MTF
MTF12
MTF13
MTF12b
MTOW
OE
pp
PScheme
SES
SID
STATFOR
STF
TR
TSU
TZ
UIR

Average annual growth


Area Control Centre
Association of European Airlines
(in tables) Baseline Scenario
Central Flow Management Unit 2
Current states participating to the Multilateral Route Charges System
Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex B.1)
Emission Trading Scheme
European Union (27 States)
Functional Airspace Block
Flight Information Region
Gross Domestic Product
(in tables) High-Growth Scenario
International Civil Aviation Organisation
Instrument Flight Rules
(in tables) Low-Growth Scenario
Medium-Term Forecast
February 2012 publication of the MTF
February 2013 publication of the MTF
September 2012 publication of the MTF
Maximum Take-Off Weight
Oxford Economics Ltd
percentage point
States involved in the Performance scheme first period of reference
(EU27, Norway and Switzerland)
Single European Sky
STATFOR Interactive Dashboard
Eurocontrol Statistics and Forecast Service
Short-Term Forecast
Traffic Region (a grouping of TZs)
Total Service Units
Traffic Zone (State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and
Luxembourg, Serbia and Montenegro)
Upper Flight Information Region

Detailed explanations of the above terms are available in EUROCONTROL Glossary


for Flight Statistics & Forecasts (Ref. 8).

Now Directorate Network Management but still referred to as CFMU for traffic data.

Page 30

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

ANNEX A.

FORECAST METHODS

A.1 Flight Forecast


The forecast reported here combines the EUROCONTROL Short- and MediumTerm Forecast methods. The short-term forecast is strongly influenced by
analysis of recent trends. The medium-term forecast takes into account a
broader range of economic and industry developments.
Short-Term Forecast Method: The short-term forecast focuses on time-series
modeling of traffic trends month-by-month. The final result is in terms of numbers of
flights per month per pair of zones or regions: within Europe origin-destination zones
are used (groups of airports often smaller than States); outside of Europe, large
regions are used (groups of States). Four separate forecasts (with differing horizons
and time and geographical resolution) contribute to the forecast as a whole (see
Figure 31):

The State-flow method forecasts each State separately, and within the State,
separate forecasts for a few main flows: internals, overflights and
arrivals/departures.

The zone or region-pair forecast is largely based on time-series methods for


some 9000 series.

The schedule method uses data from published schedules for future months, and
comparisons of previous schedules with actual flights.

The first years of the medium-term forecast (see below) also contribute to the
final view of future traffic for the first two years.
The combined forecast is then capped by airport capacities, using the same method
as used in the medium- and long-term forecasts. The result is then integrated into the
medium-term forecast, as described in the next section.

Figure 31. Summary of short-term forecast method.


Short-term Forecast

Medium-Term Forecast
(Parts of method only)

Supporting Data:
-Events
-Calendars

Historical Archive:
Monthly Airport-Pair Data

State-Flow
Forecast Method

Historical Archive:
Published Schedule

Zone/Region-Pair
Forecast Method

Initial Airport-Pair
Forecast

Schedule
Forecast Method

Combine

Aligned Airport-Pair
Forecast

Apply annual
capacities

Final Airport-Pair
Forecast

Forecast
Overflights

Final
Forecast

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 31

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Medium-Term Forecast Method


STATFOR produces medium-term (seven years ahead) forecasts of annual numbers
of IFR flight movements for volumes of airspace called traffic zones. Traffic zones
are typically States, but Spain and Portugal are split into two, and Belgium &
Luxembourg and Serbia & Montenegro are combined. Larger aggregate regions,
such as the 27 EU States, are also included. For each traffic zone, forecasts are
published for the main region-to-region flows (Annex B.2 defines these traffic regions)
on the STATFOR Interactive Dashboard (Ref. 9). Traffic flows are also categorised
as internals (within the traffic zone), arrival in or departure from the traffic zone, and
overflights (neither departing from nor landing in the traffic zone, but passing through
its airspace).
The forecast is published annually, at the beginning of the year and refreshed
mid-year to support the capacity planning process. Key features of the method are:

Development of a core, airport-pair forecast which, at each update of the


medium-term forecast, is shared by medium- and short-term forecasts;

The demand-side model focuses on economic growth and its influence on


demand from travellers and shippers;

A supply-side model is used to forecast growth directly on airport pairs, and


replaces the traditional demand-side model when appropriate;

Specific models for some market segments, such as business aviation and a
low-cost effect;

The forecast is constrained by annual airport capacity.

The overflights are calculated using the airport-to-airport routing in the


baseline year, plus more recent trends captured by the short-term forecast
method.

The forecast method is continuously being refined to improve the quality of the
outputs. For this forecast, the emissions trading scheme is integrated into the
forecasting process, and the supply-side modeling has been adapted to handle better
the recent cases of decline over several years for some flows. The forecast process is
summarised in Figure 32.
The review body for STATFOR is the STATFOR User Group. This has members from
civil aviation authorities and air navigation service providers, and from other industry
organisations. Participants are typically actively involved in statistics or forecasting.
The STATFOR User Group meets once or twice per year. It reviews the inputs to the
medium-term forecast and the resulting draft forecast. The aim of the review process
is to produce a forecast which is consistent on a European level and acceptable to
member States. This does not necessarily mean the forecast is the same as that
produced nationally.
The forecast is built from three main datasets.

Page 32

A historical database of the STATFOR monthly statistics (derived from CRCO,


Network Manager and National sources) for the last ten or more years at
airport-pair level;

A baseline from Network Manager and National sources that includes routing
information;

The set of scenario inputs.

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 32. Preparation process of the Medium-Term Forecast.

The Medium-Term Forecast uses three scenarios which differ in terms of the
assumptions. The low-growth and high-growth scenarios between them capture the
most-likely range of future growth in flight movements; the baseline scenario indicates
a likely position within this range. The main parts of the scenario data are:

Economic growth, summarised as GDP growth forecasts in real prices in local


currency; (Annex C.1)

Network change, a percentage adjustment to arrival and departure


movements per traffic zone, which can be used - given supporting data - to
represent in the model the effects of consolidation, irregularities in the
baseline, or local one-off effects; (Annex C.2)

Low-cost growth, which adds additional flight movements, on top of economic


growth to reflect new flight movements generated by low-cost airlines; (Annex
C.3)

Load factors, which are assumed to change linearly from a current level to a
future level that can vary with region and scenario; (Annex C.4)

High-speed train network, summarised as changes in rail travel time on city


pairs served by high-speed links, compared to the baseline year; (Annex C.5)

Airport capacity, in movements per year for major airports; (Annex C.6)

Demographic change, which has a very small impact in the demand-side


model. These data are derived from UN population forecasts.

Emission Trading Scheme characteristics, prices of CO2 allowances, cap on


historical CO2 emissions and the level of auctioning in the ETS determine the

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 33

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

additional costs of airlines from aviation participation in the ETS. The MTF
model expects that these are passed onto passengers and therefore reduces
the passengers' demand accordingly.
The medium-term forecast is prepared in two stages: first the airport-pair forecast;
then the traffic per volume of airspace, calculated from this using estimates of routing
from airport to airport. Published tables, reports, graphs and maps are derived from
the second of these, for short- and medium-term forecast alike.
Each airport pair is grown as follows:

All-cargo flights are grown based on GDP growth.

Small airport pairs (< 25 flights per year) are kept constant.

Growth of military flight movements in the first year of the forecast follows the
average of the last three years for the traffic zone as a whole, with a maximum
change of 5%, and is kept constant afterwards.

Business aviation flights are grown based on observed trend at a State level
together with economic growth if this is a useful explanatory variable for this
State.

For other traffic, the use of supply-side or demand-side approach is


considered. Supply-side is used if traffic matches one of the standard histories
(circular flights, long-term stable or declining traffic, direct relationship to GDP)
and if demand exceeds the supply. Otherwise, it is demand that drives and
limits the growth.

In the demand-side, passenger numbers are estimated from flight counts,


aircraft type and load factors, then grown according to GDP growth and the
elasticity for this region-pair, then converted back to a number of flights using
a number of seats-to-flights relationships calibrated on historical data.

The first years of the forecast are aligned with the short-term forecast.

The growth of movements on an airport-pair may then be reduced if there has


been a reduction in journey times by HST since the baseline year, adjusted for
low-cost growth in the traffic zone and for any network change assumptions
(by traffic zone, airport, or airport pair) and capped by airport capacity.

The resulting growth per airport pair is the airport-pair forecast. The final step is to
calculate how many flights are generated in each airspace by these airport-to-airport
flights. This is done using a combination of the routings through airspace observed in
the baseline year and trends in overflight growth per traffic zone.
At each stage, the results are validated using any available data, such as from the
STATFOR User Group or from the Industry Monitor. For example: base-year airport
movements are compared with statistics published by airports; first-year growth is
compared with known airline plans; long-term growth is compared with other
forecasts in terms of flights or passengers. Such comparisons are typically a matter of
judgement, rather than a precise numerical correlation.

Page 34

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

A.2 Service Units Forecast


The overall forecast method and tool have been finalised in the first half of 2010. The
forecasting methodology is in two parts (see Figure 33), the short-term forecast and
medium-term forecast being produced by two independent means. However; these
two forecasts are later realigned for the first 2-year look ahead period, the scope of
the short-term forecast, to account for the fact that the short-term forecast, which is
based on time-series modelling of trends and seasonal and cyclical patterns in actual
monthly service units, is usually better in capturing latest developments and giving
the short-term outlook.
The short-term forecast is based on time series analysis, using actual monthly data of
total service units recorded in the route charges system from January 1990 (or first
month of operation in the route charges system). The latest EUROCONTROL flight
forecast and medium-term forecast of service units prepared are used as supporting
information in developing this forecast of service units. The actual data for April and
May 2010 have been adjusted for the drop in service units due to flight cancellations
resulting from the eruption of the Eyjafjallajkull volcano. Some local corrections were
also introduced to compensate for some loss of service units that could be attributed
to local strikes or bad weather disruptions. In doing so, we avoid some exceptional
events to be captured as being part of the normal evolution pattern of the service
units.
Figure 33. Service units forecast method.
Historic TSU data
Forecast
SU data
Short Term
Flight
Forecasts
(STF)

Aligned
STF

Unaligned
STF

STF &
MTF
Alignment

Medium Term
Flight
Forecasts
(MTF)

Unaligned
MTF

Edition Number: v1.0

Short Term SU
Forecasts
(ST-SUF)

Unaligned
ST-SUF

Historic average
aircraft weight

Historic average
distance flown

Forecast
weight factors

Forecast
distance factors

Aligned
MTF

Medium
Term SU
Forecasts
(MT-SUF)

Released Issue

Unaligned
MT-SUF

Aligned
ST-SUF

ST-SUF &
MT-SUF
Alignment

Aligned
MT-SUF

Page 35

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

The method for the medium-term forecast of the service units adopts the structure for
calculating the en route service units in reality: it combines forecasts of distance
factors and weight factors with the number of flights as forecast by the latest
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of flight movements, thus making these two
forecasts compatible. The future distance and weight factors are derived from
observed historical trends in average flown distance and average MTOW of aircraft
on arrivals, departures, internals and overflights in each charging area.
For managing risk related to future traffic uncertainty, in addition to a base central
figure the medium-term forecast produces also high and low values. Overall, the
future total service units can be expected to be between these about half of the time.
The EUROCONTROL forecast of service units is impartial in that it uses the same
method for all the States. However, users should note that for the medium-term
forecasts, the forecast modelling as well as the results are based on a relatively short
history of data (starting mostly in January 2003) which did not allow full assessment
of the forecast performance for the complete five-year horizon and thus its results
should be treated with care.

Page 36

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

ANNEX B.

TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITONS

B.1 ESRA08
The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as
much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available from a range of
sources within the Agency. It is used for high-level reports from the Agency, when
referring to 'total Europe'. The ESRA changes only slowly with time; a region is added
to the ESRA only when there is a full year's data from all sources, so that growth
calculations are possible. ESRA08 was introduced in the MTF09 report. It is now
used as a basis for comparison at European level in the forecasts. Note that the
EUROCONTROL forecast includes also regions outside of the ESRA (eg. Armenia
and Latvia) though still within ECAC.
Figure 34. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.

Traffic zones are represented by an aggregate of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not
take delegation of airspace into account. For individual States, the differences
between charging areas and ACCs can have a big impact on overflight counts (and
thus on total counts where the total is dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a
whole, there is only a small proportion of overflights, so that the difference between a
FIR and an ACC definition is small.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 37

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

B.2 Traffic regions


The traffic regions are defined for statistical convenience and do not reflect an official
position of the EUROCONTROL Agency.
Traffic flows are described as being to or from one of a number of traffic regions listed
in Figure 35 (for example in Figure 52). Each traffic region is made up of a number of
traffic zones (=States). In August 2012, STATFOR has updated its traffic region
definition as part of the 2012 actions agreed by the STATFOR User Group. The redefinition of the traffic region aims at improving consistency with ICAO and AEA ones.
The new definition is listed in Figure 35 (and directly influencing the results in Figure
52, for example). In Figure 35, traffic zones are indicated by the first letters of the
ICAO location codes for brevity.
As far as Europe is concerned, it is split into two regions: ESRA (defined in the
previous section) and Other Europe.
For flow purposes, ESRA is split into a North-West region mostly of mature air traffic
markets, a Mediterranean region stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a
significant tourist element, and an Eastern region.
The Other Europe region (i.e. non ESRA) includes the States along the border of
ESRA and extends from Greenland to the Urals and Azerbaijan.
The map of the nine traffic regions used in our statistics is displayed in Figure 36.

Figure 35. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012.


ICAO region/country
ESRA North-West
ESRA Mediterranean
ESRA East
Other Europe
North Atlantic
Mid-Atlantic
South-Atlantic
North-Africa
Southern Africa
Middle-East
Asia/Pacific

Page 38

EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS
GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT
BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK
BG, BI, EE, EK (Faroe Islands), ENSB (Bodo Oc.), EV, EY, GE,
LX, UB, UD, UG, UH, UI, UL, UM, UN, UO, UR, US, UU, UW,
Shanwick Oc., Santa Maria FIR
C, K, P
M, T
S
DA, DT, GM, HE, HL
D, F, G, H, (except DA, DT, HE, HL, GC, GM)
L, O (except OA, OP)
A, N, P, Y, OA, OP, R, V, W, Z (except ZZZZ), U (except UK and
areas in Other Europe)

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 36. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August
2012.

The substantial changes brought by the new Traffic Region definition (compared to
the previous one, shown in Figure 37) are:

A large region named Asia/Pacific now covers the Far East and Australasia
regions. The old Former CIS region has been redistributed between Other
Europe and Asia/Pacific. And the former Oceania region has disappeared
being fully integrated into Asia/Pacific;

Other Europe stands for the complementary part of ESRA. Greenland and
Iceland have been integrated into this region and no longer contribute to the
North American traffic;

Sudan and South Sudan have been moved to Southern Africa;

Afghanistan and Pakistan no longer belong to the Middle East; they now
belong to Asia/Pacific.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 39

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 37. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics before 31 August
2012.

B.3 Functional Airspace Blocks


On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR movements from
2013 to 2019 for the Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). A FAB is a block of airspace
based on operational requirements regardless of the State boundaries (Figure 38). FAB
initiatives (definitions) are constantly evolving according to the targets defined to improve
the performance of the European air traffic management network. The FAB initiatives
have been updated in August 2012 along with the new definitions stipulated by the
European Commission. The following FAB modifications have been covered here:

Page 40

UK-Ireland FAB
Danish-Swedish FAB, now out of North European FAB
Baltic FAB (Lithuania, Poland)
BLUE MED FAB (Albania, Cyprus, Greece, Italy and Malta), now excludes
Tunisia and Egypt
Danube FAB (Bulgaria, Romania)
FAB CE (Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary,
Slovak Republic, Slovenia)
FABEC (Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and
Switzerland)
North European FAB (Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Norway)
South West FAB (Portugal [Santa Maria FIR excluded], Spain).

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.0

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 38. FAB initiatives as of August 2012.


Source: EUROCONTROL PRU

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 41

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

ANNEX C.

SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

C.1 Economic growth


Forecasts of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) are provided by Oxford
Economics Ltd (OE). These are shown for specific States 3 in Figure 41. For all other
States, the growth of the traffic region is used (See Figure 42). Note that the definition
of the traffic regions has been modified since August 2012. The new definitions of the
traffic regions are provided in Figure 35 of Annex A. Data for this forecast originate
from the January 2013 update of the OE GDP forecast.
The high- and low-growth scenarios are based on fixed offsets 4 from these forecasts.
In the MTF12 September update (MTF12b, see Ref. 1), GDP data were based on OE
GDP forecast published in August 2012. The current January data show a downward
revision of the GDP growth in 2013 for Europe. From 2014 onwards, this trend goes
on and the new forecast remains lower than the previous one in growth as well as in
absolute terms. Figure 39 illustrates how the economic outlook has changed for EU27
since the MTF12b update.
Figure 39. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook for EU27 has
been revised downwards for 2013 and remains lower in the later years.

When inspecting the data in more detail, most of the GDP forecasts per state have
been revised downwards for the 2013-2019 period. Figure 40 shows the evolution of
OE GDP forecasts for the EU27 zone in 2012 to 2014 published from 2010 onwards.
For example, in the last 12 months, the forecast for 2013 has been revised
downwards by 1.5 percentage points.

3 In fact the forecasts are used to refer to traffic zones. These are typically States, represented by its FIR. However,
Belgium & Luxembourg are combined, as are Serbia and Montenegro. Spain and Portugal are each divided into 2.
4 +1%, -0.8% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -0.8% for early years and small States, +0.5%, -0.4% for late years and
big States, +0.8%, -0.6% for late years and small States.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 42

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 40. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2012-2014 for EU27:
constant downward revisions from end 2011.

Source : Oxford Economics

The Euro crisis has strongly hit the economy of European countries in 2012 and 2013
is no longer expected to bring signs of a significant recovery. Some states are
expected to remain in recession with the biggest contractions expected for Greece
(-4.3%), Portugal (-2.6%), Cyprus (-2.3%), Slovenia (-1.5%), Spain (-1.3%) and Italy
(-1.2%). However these falls are expected to be less strong than in 2012 and the
economies of these countries are expected to stabilise in 2014 (except for Greece
that is expected to remain in recession in 2014) or slightly grow before coming back
to moderate growth from 2015. On the plus side, Turkey is expected to grow by 4.3%
in 2013 and by more than 5% in the following year. GDP growths in France (0%),
Germany (0.9%) and the UK (1%) for 2013 have also been revised downwards for
2013 since the last forecast.
Overall, 2013 is expected to see almost no growth in Europe, with a GDP growth
expected to stand at 0.1%. In the following years, the growth rates will increase to
around 1.4% in 2014, and stabilise around 2% towards 2019, well below the pre-2008
levels (average annual growth typically around 3.5%-4%). This lasting revision
downwards, even in the medium-term, is one of the main noticeable points for this
forecast.
The North Africa region, here, gives the GDP growth only for a limited number of
states whose GDP is not provided explicitly to the forecast model.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 43

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 41. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone.


Source: 2010-2019 from Oxford Economics Ltd, Jan2013
Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 15/01/2013
Actual
2010

Base
2012

2013

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Albania

3.5% 3.1% 0.9% 2.6% 3.5% 4.7% 4.7% 4.8% 4.5% 4.4%

Armenia

2.1% 4.4% 5.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7%

Austria

2.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%

Azerbaijan

5.0% 0.1% 1.8% 3.0% 4.5% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Belarus

7.7% 5.3% 2.0% 2.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%

Belgium/Luxembourg

2.4% 1.8% -0.2% -0.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

0.7% 1.3% -0.4% 0.6% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%

Bulgaria

0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 1.5% 2.9% 4.1% 4.6% 5.0% 4.9% 5.3%

Canary Islands

-0.3% 0.4% -1.3% -1.4% 0.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4%

Croatia

-1.2% -0.2% -1.7% 0.3% 2.2% 3.5% 3.9% 4.1% 3.7% 3.1%

Cyprus

1.1% 0.5% -2.3% -2.3% -1.2% 0.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4%

Czech Republic

2.3% 1.9% -1.1% -0.5% 1.9% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%

Denmark

1.6% 1.1% -0.5% 0.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%

Estonia

3.3% 8.3% 3.0% 3.1% 4.0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%

FYROM

2.8% 3.1% -1.0% 1.8% 4.8% 4.5% 4.2% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0%

Finland

3.3% 2.7% -0.1% 0.2% 1.4% 2.2% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3%

France

1.6% 1.7% -0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6%

Georgia

6.3% 6.9% 6.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.0% 4.7%

Germany
Greece

4.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6%
-4.9% -7.2% -5.8% -4.3% -1.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3%

Hungary

1.3% 1.6% -1.6% -0.0% 1.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8%

Iceland

-4.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%

Ireland

-0.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1.9% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.7% 4.2%

Italy
Latvia

1.8% 0.6% -2.1% -1.2% 0.3% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
-0.9% 5.5% 5.2% 3.5% 4.0% 5.5% 5.2% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6%

Lisbon FIR

1.9% -1.6% -3.1% -2.6% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3%

Lithuania

1.5% 5.9% 3.3% 3.6% 5.5% 6.0% 5.8% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4%

Malta

3.4% 1.9% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9%

Moldova

7.1% 6.4% 0.5% 3.7% 4.8% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%

Morocco

3.6% 5.0% 2.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 4.9%

Netherlands

1.6% 1.1% -0.9% -0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8%

Norway

0.2% 1.3% 3.0% 1.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1%

Poland

3.9% 4.3% 2.2% 1.6% 3.1% 3.8% 4.2% 3.9% 3.4% 3.1%

Romania

-1.8% 2.1% 0.1% 0.8% 3.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.2% 4.9% 4.7%

Santa Maria FIR

1.9% -1.6% -3.1% -2.6% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3%

Serbia&Montenegro

1.0% 1.6% -1.0% 1.0% 1.7% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%

Slovakia

4.4% 3.2% 2.4% 2.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0%

Slovenia
Spain

Page 44

2011

1.1% 1.0% -2.2% -1.5% 0.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
-0.3% 0.4% -1.3% -1.4% 0.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4%

Sweden

6.3% 3.8% 1.2% 0.7% 2.3% 3.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8%

Switzerland

3.0% 1.9% 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Actual
2010

Base

2011

2012

2013

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Turkey

9.2% 8.5% 2.6% 4.3% 5.6% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%

UK

1.8% 0.9% 0.1% 1.0% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6%

Ukraine

4.1% 5.2% 0.6% 2.4% 4.6% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 4.2% 4.2%

Figure 42. GDP growth by Origin-Destination Zone.


Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Jan 13.
Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 15/01/2013
Actual

Base

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Brazil

7.5% 2.7% 1.0% 3.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 3.9%

China

10% 9.3% 7.7% 8.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.4% 7.2%

India

8.9% 7.5% 5.4% 6.0% 7.5% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7%

Israel

5.7% 4.6% 3.3% 3.0% 4.5% 4.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%

South Africa

3.1% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 4.2% 4.4% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.0%

Figure 43. GDP growth by Traffic Region.


Source: 2005 onwards updated from Oxford Economics Jan 13
Comments: Real GDP Growth.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 15/01/2013
Actual
2010 2011

Base
2012

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Asia/Pacific

5.5% 1.3% 2.5% 1.9% 3.1% 3.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3%

ESRA East

2.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.9% 2.7% 3.6% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2%

ESRA Mediterranean

1.8% 1.2% -1.3% -0.5% 1.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5%

ESRA North-West

2.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0%

Mid-Atlantic

4.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 4.6% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5%

Middle-East

5.7% 5.2% 3.0% 3.6% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9%

North Atlantic

2.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 3.1% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9%

North-Africa

4.2% -3.4% 4.6% 4.1% 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7%

Other Europe

4.1% 4.3% 3.5% 3.6% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%

South-Atlantic

6.1% 7.0% 3.6% 3.6% 4.5% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3%

Southern Africa

6.1% 4.9% 4.4% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.6% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0%

C.2 Events and Trends


The events and trends assumptions consist of adjustments to arrival, departure and
internal traffic. The assumptions are listed in Figure 44, where they are expressed as
'cumulative' change: so a 1.01 figure in the year 2010 only would mean increase
growth by 1% in 2010 and decrease it in 2011 (with a total cumulative effect of 0 over
the full period of the forecast).
The effects considered are:

EU accession: Croatia and Iceland are expected to join the EU in the following
years, which is likely to boost their air-traffic thanks to air transport and market

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 45

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

liberalisation. The impact is expected to be seen from 2014 in Croatia and is


factored in by additional 5% growth in 2014, halving in the subsequent years. For
Iceland, the impact is expected to be more modest in an economy that is already
strongly liberalised and is modelled by an additional 2.5% growth in 2015, halving
in the following years.

The London Olympics in 2012 have generated an additional 0.1% in arrivaldeparture traffic and 0.5% additional internal traffic in 2012. This will be subtracted
to the forecast from 2013 to 2019.

The EURO 2012 has also generated extra traffic in Poland and Ukraine in 2012,
which will have to be subtracted to the forecast from 2013 to 2019:
o

0.9% of arrival-departure traffic, 0.7% internals for Poland,

2.3% of arrival-departure traffic, 3.5% internals for Ukraine.

Failures of aircraft operators: some adjustments have been made either to model
the recovery of traffic after an airline failure whose effects are already visible with a
traffic decline (eg. Malev in Hungary, Cimber Sterling or in Denmark) or to model
the impact of a failure when it has only just happened (eg. Aerosvit in Ukraine
although there is a suggestion that Aerosvit might start flying again) and its
recovery. Such events are modelled by short-term impacts (either upwards or
downwards) on the concerned flows that are phased to change at each change of
schedule to assume a return to previous traffic levels within the next 2 years as
other companies respond.

Fleet reductions: some airlines have recently announced that they will cut the size
of their fleet. This will lead to a sustained reduction of traffic on the main flows
where aircraft are operated by these airlines. We assumed that the reduction in
flights will be proportional to both the market share of this airline on the concerned
flow and to the announced fleet cut. In most cases, we have considered around 2/3
of the reduction will happen with the Summer schedule 2013, and the rest of the
cuts will take place with the Winter schedule 2013-2014. Adjustments have thus
been done to the German, English, Italian, Spanish, Canaries, Estonian and Polish
traffic.

Fleet increase has also been considered for the Turkish traffic based on the
information available about aircraft deliveries.

There is an argument that in modelling these changes explicitly, we risk double


counting effects which should be picked up indirectly from a decline in GDP. However,
we have noted that traffic can fall over and above the rate that would be suggested by
GDP declines, and we consider this to be a way to capture that excess.
No adjustments have been made to model the impact of the EURO 2016 in France:
this decision was taken based on the impact of the Olympics on the UK traffic that was
not significant. The effect might be added in later forecasts, when the event is nearer.
No more adjustments will be applied for the impact of the Arab Spring as the situation
has now stabilised, even if at a lower level of traffic than in 2010, especially in the case
of traffic to and from Egypt. However, if any recovery is expected to happen there, this
one will be slow and captured within the trends of the short-term forecast integrated in
the 7-year forecast.
All of the events and trends that have been factored in this seven-year forecast are
listed in Figure 44. Note that in the case of UK, Ukraine and Poland, the impacts listed

Page 46

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

here are the result of combined effects of both sport event and either airline failures or
fleet reduction.

Figure 44. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone.


Source: STATFOR analysis and modelling
Comments: Consolidation includes: trends from STF and future events such as EU Accession, Airline failure
Units: Growth index (Baseline Year=1.0). Data last updated: 15/02/2013
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Canary Islands Total: Arr/Dep H

0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991

0.993 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991

0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991

Total: Arr/Dep H

. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090

. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090

Croatia

Estonia

France

Germany

Hungary

Iceland

. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.910 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900

0.910 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900

0.910 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900

Total: Internal H

1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003

1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003

1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003

Total: Internal H

0.972 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970

0.972 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970

0.972 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.991 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.991 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

0.991 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990

Total: Arr/Dep H

1.150 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160

1.150 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160

1.150 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160

Total: Arr/Dep H

. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040

. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040

. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040

L
Italy

Moldova

Poland

Edition Number: v1.0

Total: Internal H

0.987 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976

0.987 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976

0.987 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.992 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984

0.992 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984

0.992 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984

Total: Internal H

0.906 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823

0.906 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823

0.906 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.958 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931

0.958 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931

0.958 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931

Released Issue

Page 47

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Spain

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

Ukraine

Total: Internal H

0.983 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982

0.983 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982

0.983 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.984 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983

0.984 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983

0.984 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983

Total: Internal H

0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992

0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992

0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997

0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997

0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997

Total: Internal H

1.050 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085

1.050 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085

1.050 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085

Total: Arr/Dep H

1.035 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063

1.035 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063

1.035 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063

Total: Internal H

0.990 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975

0.990 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975

0.990 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.998 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997

0.998 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997

0.998 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997

Total: Internal H

0.891 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915

0.891 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915

0.891 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915

Total: Arr/Dep H

0.914 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927

0.914 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927

0.914 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927

C.3 Low-Cost Carrier Growth


The starting point is the market share of low-cost carriers in each traffic zone in
September 2012. The low-cost carriers are defined by means of a list of aircraft
operators that can be found on STATFOR web page 5 . For the purposes of this
analysis only, the market share is defined as the share of passenger flights (i.e.
excluding the military, cargo and business aviation since these are forecasted
separately, see Annex A.1)
The additional flight movements expected to be generated by low-cost carrier growth
are represented by the input assumptions given in Figure 45. The figure shows the
actual and future low-cost market share for each scenario.
For this forecast, the rates of growth have been updated to reflect the recent situation
in each State. Compared to the forecast of September 2012 (MTF12b), the significant
changes on the assumptions of low-cost growth are mainly linked to recent
5

See http://www.eurocontrol.int/faq/statfor

Page 48

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

expansions of the low-cost market, in addition to the fact that we are also looking one
year more ahead in 2019 instead of 2018 in MTF12b. In the forecast, an increase of
the low-cost segment in Germany has also been taken into account for the expected
transfer by Lufthansa of part of its flight to its low-cost subsidiary Germanwings.
The main changes are the following:

An increase by around 10% of the forecast of the low-cost market share in


Denmark, Iceland, Sweden and Finland.
An increase of the low-cost market share forecast, sometimes significant, in
small East-European countries whose market has recently open to low-cost
carriers and where low-cost has in some cases become dominant:
o from 0-6% to 10-15% in Georgia,
o

from 6-8% to 14-25% in FYROM,

from 11-21% to 16-35% in Estonia,

from 25-47% to 44-54% in Lithuania,

from 38-46% to 56-60% in Albania,

from 10-32% to 55-81% in Latvia (in 2012, 81% of the traffic was low-cost)

An increase of the forecast in countries where the slots of a company that has
failed (in Hungary and in Spain and the Canary Islands) have been taken over
by low-cost companies:
o from 15-25% to 43-53% in Hungary
o

an increase by around 6% in Spain and the Canary Islands

The low-cost market has also expanded in Turkey and the forecast has
increased from 19-25% to 30-36%.

Figure 45. Low-cost effects by Traffic Zone.


Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling
Comments: Represents additional growth for Low-Cost, but only the baseline year is a true statistic for low-cost
Units: Percentage Additional Growth Due to Low-Cost Growth. Data last updated: 12/02/2013
Actual Low Base High
2012 2019 2019 2019
Albania

56% 56% 58% 60%

Armenia

2%

Austria

4%

7%

23% 22% 27% 28%

Azerbaijan
Belarus
Belgium/Luxembourg
Bosnia-Herzegovina

Edition Number: v1.0

2%

2%

2%

4%

7%

1%

1%

3%

6%

18% 17% 22% 23%


7%

6% 12% 18%

Bulgaria

20% 19% 28% 38%

Canary Islands

40% 39% 44% 49%

Croatia

23% 22% 27% 33%

Cyprus

30% 29% 38% 48%

Czech Republic

26% 25% 34% 44%

Released Issue

Page 49

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Actual Low Base High


2012 2019 2019 2019
Denmark

22% 21% 26% 27%

Estonia

17% 16% 25% 35%

FYROM

15% 14% 19% 25%

Finland

28% 27% 32% 37%

France

21% 20% 25% 26%

Georgia

10% 10% 12% 15%

Germany

30% 29% 36% 37%

Greece

25% 24% 29% 30%

Hungary

44% 43% 48% 53%

Iceland

11% 10% 15% 20%

Ireland

49% 48% 53% 58%

Italy

39% 37% 42% 43%

Latvia

81% 55% 65% 81%

Lisbon FIR

33% 32% 37% 42%

Lithuania

45% 44% 49% 54%

Malta

33% 32% 41% 51%

Moldova

10% 10% 12% 15%

Morocco

18% 17% 25% 35%

Netherlands

25% 24% 29% 30%

Norway

24% 23% 28% 29%

Poland

30% 29% 38% 48%

Romania

28% 27% 36% 46%

Santa Maria FIR

1%

1%

3%

6%

Serbia&Montenegro

11% 10% 16% 21%

Slovakia

31% 30% 35% 40%

Slovenia

3%

2% 11% 21%

Spain

54% 54% 56% 56%

Sweden

30% 29% 34% 35%

Switzerland

17% 16% 21% 22%

Turkey

31% 30% 35% 36%

UK

47% 46% 48% 51%

Ukraine

6%

5% 11% 17%

C.4 Load Factors


Assumptions about the development of load factors are based on data from the
Association of European Airlines (AEA). Simple forecasts have been made using the
recent trends shown in the annual data. These will be used as inputs to the MediumTerm Forecast, and are shown in Figure 47.
It could be argued that load factors for other market segments (eg. regional or lowcost carriers) are different from those provided by the AEA. We assume that the
changes in load factors for traditional carriers are similar to changes in load factors of

Page 50

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

other segments. It is the change in load factors between baseline year and forecast
year, not the absolute level, that is important in the forecast.
Compared to the forecast of September 2012 (MTF12b), there will be an increase by
1.6% in the load factors between what was forecast last year in 2018 and what is
forecast now for 2019. This accounts for the record high load factors observed during
the whole year 2012 (Figure 46). The forecast of the load factors is based on the
previous increasing trend, combined with assumptions about maximum limits that can
be maintained by the airlines in the medium-term. Note that the maximum limits have
been raised to 90% for Asia/Pacific and all Atlantic-related regions, whose load
factors had all reached their maximum capping value in MTF12b forecast (low, base
and high scenarios all forecasting 85% for the load factors in 2018). Consequently,
the forecast for those regions has increased and is now, according to the scenario, in
between 85% and the 90% threshold. Compared to previous forecasts, we have also
considered that high load factors were rather a cause of low flight growth instead of
being an effect of high growth as it was considered previously: recent increase of load
factors has shown that they could still grow and were sufficient to absorb flight
demand.

Figure 46. European load factors reached record highs during the whole year
2012 (source data: AEA.).

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 51

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 47. Load factors by Traffic Region.


Source: Actual: AEA, IATA. Forecast: STATFOR analysis and modelling.
Comments: Data for 2012 based on year to November
Units: Percentage Load Factor for this Traffic Region. Data last updated: 12/02/2013
Actual
2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Low

Base

High

2019

2019

2019

Asia/Pacific

78.7% 76.6% 80.7% 76.3% 78.0% 79.7% 80.7% 83.2% 80.7% 80.6% 83.6% 81.7% 80.3% 89.4% 87.0% 84.6%

ESRA East

64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 71.0% 73.5% 76.7% 74.9% 73.1%

ESRA Mediterranean

64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 71.0% 73.5% 76.7% 74.9% 73.1%

ESRA North-West

64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 71.0% 73.5% 76.7% 74.9% 73.1%

Mid-Atlantic

79.8% 78.9% 79.1% 79.4% 80.3% 81.7% 82.1% 84.3% 83.3% 81.7% 82.3% 82.0% 83.0% 90.0% 88.0% 85.6%

Middle-East

67.1% 63.3% 67.5% 69.2% 69.6% 73.5% 70.8% 74.6% 73.5% 69.3% 71.3% 70.0% 71.5% 79.4% 76.3% 73.1%

North Atlantic

77.4% 73.6% 79.7% 79.5% 81.3% 82.2% 81.1% 81.7% 80.9% 82.0% 83.9% 82.9% 84.2% 89.9% 87.7% 85.4%

North-Africa

70.5% 65.2% 68.8% 65.3% 68.7% 67.0% 68.4% 69.4% 70.4% 67.9% 69.8% 67.9% 70.9% 73.1% 70.6% 68.0%

Other Europe

64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 71.0% 73.5% 76.7% 74.9% 73.1%

South-Atlantic

79.7% 73.8% 76.1% 82.2% 82.9% 82.5% 86.3% 85.1% 81.0% 80.2% 85.1% 86.0% 86.4% 90.0% 90.0% 88.4%

Southern Africa

74.3% 77.4% 76.4% 75.9% 78.2% 77.9% 77.9% 79.2% 77.8% 77.6% 77.4% 76.9% 78.5% 83.0% 81.8% 79.8%

C.5 High-Speed train Network Development


The model converts improved rail travel times into increased market share for rail,
and thus fewer passengers travelling by air. For this forecast, the new or improved
connections listed in Figure 48 have been considered. The improvements are
expressed in terms of travel time.
Figure 48. High Speed Train times evolution as from 2013 to 2019.
Source: Actuals from on-line timetables. Plans from UIC, TEN-T and elsewhere.
Units: Travel time (minutes). Data last updated: 15/01/2013 Distances estimated from airport locations.

Ankara

Rail Time (mins)

Km

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Bursa

318

240

150

519

900

200

398

210

183

Izmir

Bale
Mulhouse

Paris

Brussels

Luxembourg

176

135

90

Rotterdam

133

105

78

Amsterdam

174

146

99

Strasbourg

337

270

180

Leipzig

102

72

39

Munchen

307

300

150

Bern

348

230

200

Bale Mulhouse

274

170

140

London

641

343

300

Paris

444

230

215

Stuttgart

154

70

53

Erfurt
Frankfurt

Page 52

Distance

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Istanbul

Distance

Rail Time (mins)

Km

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ankara

335

330

180

Konya

454

745

210

Sivas

682

720

Bursa

84

240

Bern

239

180

150

Bale Mulhouse

166

100

Bale Mulhouse

361

230

London

516

251

Frankfurt

310

270

Munchen

354

345

Madrid

Alicante

361

Munchen

Berlin

481

Zurich

Barcelona

Bordeaux
Brest

Karlsruhe
Koln/Bonn
Leipzig

Paris

Perpignan

171

140

69

200

240

150

190

360

120

530

245

260

240

195

824

480

400

519

182

135

511

250

180

Madrid

1062

810

700

Munchen

675

360

330

Rotterdam

364

189

165

Rennes

326

127

90

Amsterdam

409

233

186

Stuttgart

490

220

190

Barcelona

158

165

92

Madrid

605

500

290

Amsterdam

London

359

277

240

Strasbourg

Luxembourg

162

130

85

Lille

405

240

150

Paris

381

140

110

Tours

Bordeaux

314

166

120

Zurich

Paris

469

270

243

C.6 Airport Capacity


The forecast takes airport capacity into account. The final stage of this is that demand
in excess of the expected capacity cannot be accommodated and is lost. For this 7year forecast, information about the capacity of 105 airports has been collected
through the EUROCONTROL Airport Corner project that, amongst other airportrelated information, monitors future capacity at airports. The current figures have
been frozen at the beginning of February. These capacities are treated as confidential
and will not be reported in this document. The figures will also be used for the
Challenges of Growth 2013 update, and will be reported on in more detail there.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 53

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

C.7 Airport Traffic Switch


Since the publication of the February forecast, the opening of the Berlin/Brandenburg
Airport has been postponed until March 2015. The assumption about the transfer of
Berlin/Tegel to Berlin/Schnefeld (becoming Berlin/Brandenburg) has been reworked:
75% of the traffic moved in 2015 and 100% from 2016.
We have also considered the transfer of all low-cost traffic from Bucharest Aurel
Vlaicu International (LRBS) to Bucharest Otopeni International (LRBO): the change
will be completed as of 2013, generating a transfer of 42% of the traffic compared to
2012. As the switch of low-cost segment is not an option for the traffic types that can
be considered in the MTF method, this transfer has been approximated by assuming
that all flights to Europe (ESRA) will be concerned (short-haul traffic, which is what
low-cost flights are).
The full transfer of Business flights from Madrid-Torrejon (LETO) towards MadridBajaras (LEMD) from February 2013 has also been taken into account.

C.8 Airline schedules


The schedules data originating from INNOVATA LLC have been used in this forecast.
The data feed is slightly different from the OAG data previously used in the
EUROCONTROL forecast (some airlines not reported or reported differently). As with
the previous source of schedules, experience shows that they can be used to look
ahead only a few months. In the end the schedules have only been allowed to
influence the forecast between February and April. Figure 49 shows per country the
expected growth as available from the Schedule data at the beginning of February, as
used in the forecast.
Figure 49. The schedule expects a monthly decline of around -3% to -4% for
Europe until the end of the Winter schedule.
Scheduled Departure
Growth

Schedule Reference
Date
01FEB13
FEB13 MAR13 APR13

Albania

24%

30%

29%

Armenia

-29%

-24%

-25%

Austria

-3%

-3%

-4%

Azerbaijan

15%

15%

24%

Belarus

6%

6%

6%

Belgium/Luxembourg

-3%

-2%

2%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

-12%

-8%

-23%

Bulgaria

-8%

-13%

-9%

Canary Islands

-2%

-1%

-4%

Croatia

-0%

-2%

3%

Cyprus

-11%

-8%

-4%

Czech Republic

-14%

-12%

-10%

Denmark

Page 54

-6%

-8%

-2%

Estonia

-17%

-16%

-39%

FYROM

8%

20%

30%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Scheduled Departure
Growth

Schedule Reference
Date
01FEB13
FEB13 MAR13 APR13

Finland

-5%

-6%

-12%

France

-3%

-4%

-1%

Georgia

10%

16%

13%

Germany

-4%

-6%

0%

Greece

-10%

-14%

-6%

Hungary

-12%

5%

-3%

Iceland

8%

9%

-8%

Ireland

0%

1%

-0%

Italy

-6%

-6%

-3%

Latvia

-1%

-3%

-4%

Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta

-1%

0%

-13%

-8%

2%

-1%

9%

Moldova

18%

17%

18%

Morocco

4%

6%

12%

-1%

-0%

3%

1%

-5%

14%

Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
Santa Maria FIR

Edition Number: v1.0

-2%
-10%

3%

2%

4%

-3%

-4%

-8%

1%

-2%

-1%

Serbia&Montenegro

-2%

-2%

-3%

Slovakia

-7%

-3%

-16%

Slovenia

-8%

-16%

-18%

Spain

-5%

-7%

-5%

Sweden

-5%

-9%

0%

Switzerland

-1%

-1%

0%

Turkey

11%

12%

16%

Ukraine

-7%

-1%

28%

UK

-4%

-3%

-1%

ESRA02

-3%

-4%

-0%

EU27

-4%

-5%

-2%

ESRA08

-3%

-4%

-0%

Released Issue

Page 55

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

ANNEX D.

SUMMARY OF IFR MOVEMENTS FORECAST FOR EUROPE

Figure 50. Growth in Europe

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 56

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 51. Flights on main flow categories in Europe

IFR Movements(000s)
2008
Total: Internal

Total: Arr/Dep

Total: Overflight

Grand Total

2009

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

. 7,430 7,667

7,967

8,294

8,550

8,841

9,115

7,602 7,562 7,790 7,514 7,328 7,491

7,683

7,901

8,085

8,290

8,496 -0.7% -7.1% -0.5%

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Annual Growth
2019

AAGR
2019/
2012

. -1.1%

3.2% 3.9% 4.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.1%

2.8%

3.0% -3.5% -2.5%

2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5%

1.8%

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

8,182

. 7,214 7,278

7,333

7,440

7,514

7,608

7,710

. -4.0%

0.9% 0.8% 1.5% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3%

0.4%

. 1,997 2,112

2,237

2,377

2,499

2,633

2,769

4.2%

5.8% 5.9% 6.3% 5.1% 5.4% 5.2%

5.4%

1,807

1,711 1,815 1,883 1,916 1,967 2,057

2,145

2,243

2,330

2,428

2,525 5.0% -5.3%

6.1%

3.7%

1.7%

2.7%

4.6% 4.3% 4.5% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0%

4.0%

. 1,935 1,994

2,043

2,103

2,150

2,205

2,261

1.0%

3.1% 2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6%

2.4%

132

145

155

164

173

183

194

11%

10% 6.4% 6.1% 5.6% 5.9% 5.9%

7.2%

94

100

116

112

119

129

140

147

154

160

167

175

16%

7.1%

15% -3.4%

6.6%

8.3%

9.0% 4.7% 4.7% 4.1% 4.4% 4.4%

5.6%

127

137

141

146

151

156

161

6.4%

8.0% 3.4% 3.7% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3%

4.4%

. 9,559 9,924 10,358 10,835 11,222 11,658 12,079

0.1%

3.8% 4.4% 4.6% 3.6% 3.9% 3.6%

3.4%

10,083

9,975 10,298 10,576 10,885 11,195 0.4% -6.6%

0.8%

3.1% -2.4% -1.3%

2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%

2.3%

1.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6%

0.9%

9,413 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,424 9,689


.

Edition Number: v1.0

. 9,276 9,409

9,517

9,690

Released Issue

9,815

9,969 10,132

Page 57

. -2.9%

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 52. Flights and growth on biggest region-to-region flows in Europe


IFR Movements(000s)

Annual Growth
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

AAGR
2019/
2012

ESRA08
2009
1 ESRA
North-W

2 ESRA
Mediter

3 ESRA
Mediter

4 ESRA
East

5 ESRA
North-W

6 ESRA
North-W

7 ESRA
East

8 ESRA
North-W

ESRA NorthW

ESRA NorthW

ESRA
Mediter

ESRA NorthW

North Atlant

Other
Europe

ESRA East

North-Africa

Page 58

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2009

2010

2011

2012

3521.6

3595.0

3686.9

3798.2

3862.5

3929.4

3979.4

-1.7%

2.1%

2.6%

3.0%

1.7%

1.7%

1.3%

1.5%

3665.3

3573.2

3679.4

3581.4

3479.9

3528.8

3593.4

3663.2

3706.0

3752.8

3797.8

-7.7%

-2.5%

3.0%

-2.7%

-2.8%

1.4%

1.8%

1.9%

1.2%

1.3%

1.2%

0.8%

3429.9

3440.1

3450.5

3479.9

3482.9

3491.3

3504.8

-4.2%

0.3%

0.3%

0.9%

0.1%

0.2%

0.4%

-0.3%

1664.6

1722.8

1786.6

1859.7

1917.7

1984.4

2048.1

0.7%

3.5%

3.7%

4.1%

3.1%

3.5%

3.2%

3.1%

1548.8

1576.8

1674.8

1653.8

1639.5

1679.4

1718.6

1767.4

1808.8

1857.9

1906.0

-8.0%

1.8%

6.2%

-1.3%

-0.9%

2.4%

2.3%

2.8%

2.3%

2.7%

2.6%

2.0%

1611.6

1626.4

1633.7

1655.8

1671.0

1693.5

1717.2

-2.6%

0.9%

0.4%

1.4%

0.9%

1.4%

1.4%

0.5%

1300.0

1361.2

1436.6

1506.0

1572.2

1658.7

1747.8

-3.7%

4.7%

5.5%

4.8%

4.4%

5.5%

5.4%

3.8%

1445.0

1466.9

1480.4

1350.0

1282.1

1326.8

1372.5

1425.2

1481.8

1544.2

1610.3

-4.8%

1.5%

0.9%

-8.8%

-5.0%

3.5%

3.4%

3.8%

4.0%

4.2%

4.3%

2.6%

1262.9

1287.0

1303.3

1332.6

1365.8

1404.7

1445.1

-6.5%

1.9%

1.3%

2.2%

2.5%

2.8%

2.9%

1.0%

545.1

568.9

603.0

639.3

670.6

701.6

730.3

4.7%

4.4%

6.0%

6.0%

4.9%

4.6%

4.1%

5.0%

513.5

510.6

520.3

520.4

535.4

551.0

571.6

594.3

614.1

635.6

656.1

-8.3%

-0.6%

1.9%

0.0%

2.9%

2.9%

3.7%

4.0%

3.3%

3.5%

3.2%

3.4%

525.7

532.9

541.5

553.2

561.8

571.4

580.8

1.0%

1.4%

1.6%

2.2%

1.6%

1.7%

1.6%

1.6%

296.5

307.0

316.2

329.0

337.7

347.4

355.6

0.9%

3.6%

3.0%

4.0%

2.7%

2.9%

2.4%

2.8%

290.4

288.8

302.0

293.7

292.7

301.9

309.6

318.0

325.0

332.7

339.7

-9.0%

-0.6%

4.6%

-2.7%

-0.3%

3.1%

2.5%

2.7%

2.2%

2.4%

2.1%

2.1%

288.5

293.8

298.3

303.8

306.6

310.0

313.8

-1.8%

1.8%

1.5%

1.8%

0.9%

1.1%

1.2%

0.9%

256.7

270.2

286.7

303.4

317.1

330.3

342.4

0.8%

5.2%

6.1%

5.8%

4.5%

4.2%

3.7%

4.3%

203.6

215.4

243.3

254.8

252.2

261.5

271.5

281.6

289.9

298.9

307.7

-16%

5.8%

13%

4.7%

-1.0%

3.7%

3.8%

3.7%

2.9%

3.1%

3.0%

2.7%

247.5

252.6

256.4

261.4

264.6

268.4

272.3

-2.9%

2.1%

1.5%

2.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.5%

1.0%

200.4

207.1

222.5

238.5

254.3

271.4

288.8

-6.3%

3.3%

7.4%

7.2%

6.6%

6.7%

6.4%

4.4%

237.8

234.9

227.8

213.9

196.9

200.5

209.8

220.0

229.2

239.0

249.0

-4.3%

-1.2%

-3.0%

-6.1%

-7.9%

1.8%

4.6%

4.9%

4.2%

4.3%

4.2%

2.2%

193.7

194.6

199.6

205.7

210.8

216.2

221.3

-9.4%

0.5%

2.5%

3.1%

2.4%

2.6%

2.4%

0.5%

217.6

229.5

242.6

259.3

272.5

287.0

301.9

5.1%

5.5%

5.7%

6.9%

5.1%

5.3%

5.2%

5.5%

212.0

227.8

196.9

206.9

214.0

223.7

233.3

245.3

255.6

267.0

277.9

0.9%

7.5%

-14%

5.1%

3.4%

4.6%

4.3%

5.1%

4.2%

4.5%

4.1%

4.3%

210.2

216.4

221.9

228.9

234.8

241.4

248.1

1.6%

3.0%

2.5%

3.2%

2.6%

2.8%

2.8%

2.6%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

ANNEX E.

FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH

Figure 53. Forecast Summary: Annual IFR Movements 2008-2019


IFR Movements
(thousands)
Albania

Armenia

Austria

2008

Belarus

Belgium/Luxembourg

Bulgaria

Canary Islands

Croatia

Cyprus

Czech Republic

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

197

209

219

230

240

250

260

4.2%

148

161

181

197

195

193

203

210

218

225

233

240

3.0%

190

196

199

204

208

212

216

1.5%

57

62

68

74

80

86

93

7.6%

52

48

53

57

56

56

60

65

69

73

78

83

5.7%

55

58

61

64

67

71

74

4.0%

. 1,129 1,184

1,242

1,303

1,353

1,399

1,444

3.5%

1,204 1,113 1,137 1,154 1,133 1,112 1,152

1,190

1,231

1,266

1,306

1,344

2.5%

1,129

1,150

1,164

1,181

1,199

0.8%

. 1,092 1,115

137

149

163

179

194

211

230

8.4%

108

108

120

124

130

135

145

156

167

179

192

206

6.8%

133

140

148

157

165

175

185

5.1%

247

264

282

302

319

337

357

5.8%

199

182

196

225

240

243

256

268

281

293

306

319

4.2%

239

248

254

262

268

276

283

2.4%

. 1,096 1,130

1,168

1,220

1,255

1,294

1,331

2.9%

1,108 1,020 1,035 1,091 1,089 1,079 1,102

1,130

1,162

1,188

1,219

1,247

2.0%

1,078

1,094

1,103

1,116

1,132

0.5%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

2010

Azerbaijan

2009

AAGR
2019/
2012

. 1,061 1,069

275

294

310

328

343

360

377

5.0%

218

224

250

276

268

270

286

296

309

319

331

343

3.5%

265

276

281

288

293

299

305

1.9%

559

606

647

690

731

777

824

6.2%

478

477

504

539

540

550

588

616

647

676

708

742

4.6%

540

569

583

602

618

636

656

2.8%

268

277

287

297

306

318

329

2.6%

307

267

275

298

275

264

269

273

278

282

288

294

1.0%

260

260

259

260

260

262

264

-0.6%

511

543

573

606

635

665

695

5.0%

422

422

459

497

495

502

527

548

571

592

614

635

3.6%

494

510

520

534

544

556

568

2.0%

281

300

318

337

354

374

396

5.6%

272

268

285

281

270

275

290

302

314

326

339

353

3.9%

270

280

286

293

299

307

314

2.2%

683

720

761

804

841

880

915

4.3%

682

648

668

695

679

672

699

725

753

778

802

826

2.8%

660

676

687

702

713

723

733

1.1%

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 59

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

IFR Movements
(thousands)
Denmark

Estonia

FYROM

Finland

France

2008

Germany

Hungary

Iceland

Ireland

Italy

Page 60

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

609

634

659

683

703

724

742

3.0%

629

576

595

625

605

601

620

637

653

667

681

695

2.0%

591

603

609

617

622

628

634

0.7%

185

195

208

223

236

248

258

4.6%

174

153

156

178

189

181

188

196

205

213

222

231

2.9%

178

182

185

190

194

198

203

1.0%

116

121

127

134

139

146

152

4.4%

125

125

125

124

113

114

117

122

126

130

135

140

3.1%

112

113

115

118

120

123

125

1.5%

244

253

266

280

292

304

316

3.3%

261

240

242

267

252

240

245

252

260

266

273

280

1.5%

236

237

239

242

244

246

249

-0.2%

. 2,919 2,996

3,078

3,214

3,290

3,376

3,459

2.4%

3,020 2,801 2,794 2,968 2,923 2,876 2,932

2,990

3,075

3,137

3,207

3,270

1.6%

2,861

2,898

2,919

2,949

2,985

0.3%

. 2,830 2,846

116

127

139

151

164

177

192

8.6%

80

77

94

110

108

114

123

132

141

150

161

172

6.9%

112

119

125

132

139

146

154

5.2%

. 3,011 3,129

3,258

3,404

3,515

3,635

3,744

3.1%

3,151 2,930 2,981 3,078 3,018 2,965 3,051

3,136

3,233

3,311

3,395

3,477

2.0%

2,978

3,024

3,049

3,081

3,114

0.4%

. 2,913 2,951

632

661

692

726

754

787

820

3.8%

643

638

655

656

633

622

643

664

689

712

736

760

2.6%

611

622

631

646

657

671

686

1.2%

618

654

694

736

776

817

857

5.5%

622

608

622

617

589

608

635

661

690

716

746

775

4.0%

597

614

626

643

657

672

688

2.2%

125

132

141

150

158

167

176

5.3%

110

101

102

111

123

123

129

135

142

147

153

159

3.7%

122

126

130

134

137

141

144

2.3%

524

544

567

595

619

646

662

3.5%

601

530

513

523

521

517

532

548

566

583

601

621

2.5%

509

517

526

537

545

555

566

1.2%

. 1,667 1,715

1,790

1,876

1,945

2,022

2,100

3.2%

1,736 1,647 1,712 1,726 1,685 1,642 1,672

1,722

1,780

1,830

1,886

1,940

2.0%

1,637

1,666

1,687

1,713

1,739

0.5%

Latvia

2011

Greece

2010

Georgia

2009

AAGR
2019/
2012

. 1,616 1,621

237

250

266

284

299

315

329

5.1%

225

206

214

235

233

231

240

248

258

266

275

284

2.8%

227

231

233

238

241

245

248

0.9%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

IFR Movements
(thousands)
Lisbon FIR

Lithuania

Malta

Moldova

Morocco

Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Romania

Santa Maria FIR

Serbia&Montenegro

Slovakia

Slovenia

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

AAGR
2019/
2012

438

453

470

489

506

525

544

3.2%

438

406

429

450

438

431

439

448

460

469

480

491

1.7%

424

425

426

430

432

437

441

0.1%

239

255

272

289

305

322

338

5.3%

219

192

206

233

236

235

246

256

267

276

287

297

3.3%

230

237

241

247

251

256

261

1.5%

106

111

116

122

127

133

139

5.3%

84

85

95

81

97

105

109

113

117

121

125

129

4.2%

104

107

109

112

115

117

120

3.1%

69

73

78

83

88

94

100

6.6%

41

44

54

60

64

67

71

74

78

82

86

91

5.1%

66

69

71

73

76

78

81

3.5%

329

344

362

382

401

423

447

4.7%

331

312

339

352

324

323

334

345

357

369

382

396

2.9%

318

324

328

334

339

346

353

1.3%

. 1,094 1,128

1,169

1,215

1,252

1,294

1,320

2.9%

1,090

996 1,013 1,085 1,083 1,078 1,099

1,128

1,156

1,179

1,209

1,239

1.9%

. 1,060 1,067

1,076

1,090

1,097

1,110

1,123

0.5%

596

605

629

642

652

664

675

2.0%

550

526

537

563

587

592

598

617

626

632

639

646

1.4%

584

589

593

600

603

607

610

0.5%

698

728

775

825

870

917

963

5.0%

612

566

599

655

684

687

706

735

768

797

828

858

3.3%

675

683

696

714

728

743

758

1.5%

506

539

578

619

660

703

748

6.3%

444

434

470

487

487

498

523

549

578

605

635

666

4.6%

489

505

520

538

553

569

587

2.7%

120

124

130

136

141

147

153

3.8%

116

113

118

123

118

118

121

125

130

133

137

141

2.6%

116

118

120

123

125

127

129

1.3%

542

572

603

637

666

698

729

4.5%

497

513

543

558

535

533

556

576

600

621

644

667

3.2%

523

537

547

560

570

583

595

1.5%

398

423

448

473

497

523

547

5.3%

345

337

370

382

381

392

410

427

444

460

478

496

3.9%

385

397

405

415

423

433

442

2.2%

350

370

389

410

427

444

462

4.2%

327

313

328

353

346

344

360

372

386

399

412

425

3.0%

338

348

353

361

366

373

380

1.3%

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 61

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

IFR Movements
(thousands)
Spain

2008
H
B

Sweden

Switzerland

Ukraine

UK

BLUE MED FAB

Page 62

2017

2018

2019

. 1,501 1,547

1,607

1,672

1,729

1,799

1,868

2.6%

1,747 1,581 1,608 1,665 1,557 1,477 1,504

1,540

1,583

1,623

1,672

1,720

1.4%

1,463

1,483

1,500

1,527

1,553

-0.0%

723

751

791

825

853

883

912

3.4%

736

654

664

724

724

714

734

762

785

804

824

844

2.2%

703

714

726

739

747

756

765

0.8%

. 1,034 1,069

1,102

1,152

1,174

1,197

1,220

2.2%

1,096 1,018 1,025 1,063 1,045 1,018 1,045

1,070

1,101

1,126

1,152

1,170

1.6%

. 1,001 1,013

1,019

1,033

1,042

1,053

1,066

0.3%

. 1,187 1,312

1,420

1,527

1,632

1,757

1,887

8.5%

822

857

965 1,039 1,066 1,170 1,276

1,351

1,433

1,519

1,612

1,712

7.0%

. 1,152 1,236

1,282

1,336

1,392

1,453

1,517

5.2%

478

511

549

589

626

668

712

6.2%

406

378

429

453

466

471

496

523

551

578

607

638

4.6%

463

481

498

517

533

552

572

3.0%

. 2,210 2,275

2,357

2,447

2,522

2,607

2,680

2.8%

2,514 2,278 2,181 2,241 2,211 2,180 2,224

2,281

2,339

2,390

2,448

2,509

1.8%

2,194

2,234

2,258

2,288

. 2,148 2,165

2,322

0.7%

. 9,418 9,773 10,194 10,657 11,031 11,453 11,858

3.4%

9,954 9,301 9,367 9,641 9,388 9,285 9,542

9,821 10,135 10,405 10,705 11,007

2.3%

. 9,140 9,267

9,371

9,538

9,966

0.9%

. 8,720 9,012

9,376

9,792 10,119 10,479 10,819

3.1%

9,470 8,787 8,805 9,036 8,766 8,593 8,793

9,029

9,303

9,527

9,778 10,026

1.9%

9,659

9,807

8,613

8,751

8,839

8,953

. 8,455 8,534

9,074

0.5%

. 9,559 9,924 10,358 10,835 11,222 11,658 12,079

3.4%

10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,424 9,689

9,975 10,298 10,576 10,885 11,195

2.3%

. 9,276 9,409

9,517

9,969 10,132

0.9%

. 9,117 9,418

9,799 10,228 10,567 10,939 11,292

3.0%

9,442

9,724

9,955 10,214 10,469

1.9%

9,010

9,154

9,245

9,362

9,487

0.5%

9,833 9,152 9,171 9,407 9,162 8,987 9,193

9,690

9,815

. 8,844 8,927

790

827

882

939

991

1,045

1,098

5.2%

704

644

679

741

768

776

801

835

872

905

940

975

3.5%

763

775

790

811

827

844

861

1.6%

. 2,231 2,312

2,421

2,540

2,641

2,753

2,868

3.7%

2,294 2,207 2,286 2,283 2,227 2,197 2,251

2,323

2,406

2,479

2,560

2,640

2.5%

2,207

2,251

2,285

2,326

2,369

0.9%

Danube FAB

2016

. 1,451 1,456

Baltic FAB

2014

SES

2013

ESRA08

2012

EU27

2011

ESRA02

2010

Turkey

2015

2009

AAGR
2019/
2012

. 2,160 2,181

786

840

897

959

1,018

1,082

1,148

6.3%

690

687

734

758

746

774

815

854

898

938

983

1,029

4.7%

760

789

809

836

858

883

910

2.9%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

IFR Movements
(thousands)
FAB CE

2008
H
B

FABEC

South West FAB

2012

2013

2014

2016

2017

2018

2019

. 1,916 2,009

2,117

2,233

2,332

2,433

2,529

4.5%

1,904 1,806 1,864 1,914 1,865 1,885 1,953

2,023

2,101

2,169

2,242

2,313

3.1%

. 1,852 1,890

1,919

1,961

1,992

2,026

2,060

1.4%

. 5,560 5,742

5,940

6,193

6,366

6,557

6,728

2.8%

5,817 5,406 5,431 5,671 5,564 5,480 5,611

5,744

5,909

6,035

6,177

6,311

1.8%

. 5,389 5,442

5,481

5,557

5,598

5,654

5,717

0.4%

. 1,004 1,034

1,084

1,125

1,160

1,196

1,230

3.0%

969

904

924

1,044

1,068

1,088

1,110

1,131

1.8%

988

996

1,010

1,017

1,026

1,035

0.5%

. 1,592 1,641

1,705

1,774

1,834

1,908

1,982

2.7%

1,912 1,733 1,765 1,823 1,644 1,566 1,596

1,633

1,678

1,719

1,769

1,820

1.5%

988 1,001

992 1,011
977

. 1,539 1,545

1,551

1,572

1,589

1,616

1,642

-0.0%

. 2,235 2,301

2,385

2,477

2,554

2,640

2,714

2.8%

2,559 2,316 2,216 2,272 2,238 2,204 2,250

2,308

2,367

2,418

2,478

2,540

1.8%

DK-SE FAB

2011

UK-Ireland FAB

2010

NEFAB

2015

2009

AAGR
2019/
2012

. 2,172 2,190

2,219

2,260

2,284

2,315

2,350

0.7%

994 1,029

1,076

1,117

1,151

1,188

1,222

3.2%

1,031

931

953 1,008

978

982 1,006

1,039

1,067

1,089

1,115

1,139

2.2%

992

1,007

1,016

1,027

1,037

0.8%

Edition Number: v1.0

967

Released Issue

980

Page 63

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 54. Forecast Summary: Annual traffic growth rates 2008-2019


IFR Movements
(growth)
Albania

Armenia

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

4.5%

8.9%

12%

8.0% -6.7%

9.3%

Austria

Belarus

Bulgaria

Croatia

Cyprus

5.0% 5.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.1%

4.2%

8.7% -1.1% -0.8% 4.9%

3.5% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2%

3.0%

. -2.6% 3.3%

1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%

1.5%

1.6% 9.8%

9.2% 8.6% 7.9% 8.2% 8.1%

7.6%

8.1% -2.0% -0.4% 8.3%

6.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.4%

5.7%

4.9% 5.1% 4.5% 4.8% 4.8%

4.0%

. -0.3% 4.8%

4.9% 4.9% 3.9% 3.4% 3.2%

3.5%

2.0% -7.6%

2.2%

1.5% -1.8% -1.9% 3.6%

3.3% 3.5% 2.8% 3.1% 2.9%

2.5%

. -3.6% 2.1%

1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5%

0.8%

5.0% 8.7%

9.8% 9.5% 8.6% 8.8% 8.8%

8.4%

13%

0.5%

11%

2.8%

5.4%

3.3% 7.4%

7.6% 7.6% 7.1% 7.3% 7.2%

6.8%

1.7% 5.9%

5.6% 6.0% 5.4% 5.6% 5.6%

5.1%

3.1% 6.8%

6.9% 6.8% 5.7% 5.8% 5.7%

5.8%

16% -8.6%

7.7%

15%

6.7%

1.4% 5.2%

4.7% 4.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.3%

4.2%

. -0.3% 3.6%

2.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.7%

2.4%

0.6% 3.1%

3.4% 4.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8%

2.9%

0.7% -7.9%

1.5%

5.4% -0.2% -1.0% 2.2%

2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.6% 2.4%

2.0%

. -2.6% 0.8%

0.8% 1.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.4%

0.5%

2.4% 7.1%

5.5% 5.6% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7%

5.0%

8.5%

3.1%

11%

10% -2.6%

0.6% 5.8%

3.8% 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5%

3.5%

. -1.2% 4.1%

1.7% 2.4% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0%

1.9%

3.5% 8.5%

6.7% 6.7% 6.0% 6.2% 6.1%

6.2%

7.7% -0.2%

5.6%

7.1%

0.2%

1.8% 7.0%

4.7% 5.0% 4.5% 4.8% 4.7%

4.6%

0.0% 5.2%

2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0%

2.8%

. -2.2% 3.2%

3.5% 3.6% 3.1% 3.8% 3.6%

2.6%

-0.2%

-13%

3.2%

8.2% -7.7% -3.8% 1.7%

1.5% 1.9% 1.5% 2.1% 2.1%

1.0%

. -5.4% 0.3% -0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6%

-0.6%

3.1% 6.2%

5.6% 5.8% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6%

5.0%

6.0%

0.1%

8.7%

8.4% -0.4%

1.4% 5.0%

3.9% 4.2% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5%

3.6%

. -0.4% 3.4%

1.9% 2.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1%

2.0%

4.3% 6.8%

5.8% 5.9% 5.1% 5.7% 5.8%

5.6%

6.4% -1.2% -4.1%

2.1% 5.4%

3.9% 4.2% 3.6% 4.1% 4.1%

3.9%

12% -1.7%

0.2% 3.7%

2.0% 2.6% 2.0% 2.5% 2.6%

2.2%

0.6% 5.4%

5.6% 5.7% 4.7% 4.6% 3.9%

4.3%

5.6% -5.0%

3.2%

4.0% -2.3% -1.1% 4.0%

3.7% 3.9% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0%

2.8%

. -2.8% 2.4%

1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4%

1.1%

0.7% 4.2%

3.9% 3.7% 2.8% 3.0% 2.5%

3.0%

-0.3% -8.5%

3.3%

5.1% -3.2% -0.6% 3.3%

2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1%

2.0%

0.9% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9%

0.7%

B
L

Page 64

0.8% 6.1%

. -2.3% 6.7%

Denmark

2018

Czech Republic

2017

Canary Islands

2016

Bosnia-Herzegovina

2015

Belgium/Luxembourg

2014

Azerbaijan

2013

AAGR
2019/
2019 2012

. -2.2% 2.1%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

IFR Movements
(growth)
Estonia

FYROM

2008

2009

2010

2011

. -2.2% 5.5%

6.9% 7.0% 5.8% 5.1% 4.0%

4.6%

13%

-12%

2.1%

14%

6.1% -4.0% 3.9%

4.2% 4.6% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9%

2.9%

. -5.8% 2.2%

1.9% 2.6% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3%

1.0%

2.9% 4.4%

5.2% 5.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.3%

4.4%

2.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% -9.6%

1.1% 3.1%

3.6% 3.9% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4%

3.1%

Finland

1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%

1.5%

. -3.2% 3.6%

5.3% 5.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.0%

3.3%

6.3% -7.7%

0.6%

11% -5.8% -4.7% 2.1%

2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.7% 2.5%

1.5%

. -6.3% 0.6%

0.7% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9%

-0.2%

. -0.2% 2.6%

2.7% 4.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5%

2.4%

6.2% -1.5% -1.6% 1.9%

2.0% 2.9% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9%

1.6%

Italy

. -3.2% 0.6%

0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2%

0.3%

7.0% 9.6%

9.5% 9.0% 8.3% 8.5% 8.4%

8.6%

0.0% -3.6%

22%

16% -1.7%

5.2% 8.1%

7.1% 7.2% 6.7% 6.9% 6.8%

6.9%

3.5% 6.5%

5.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.2%

5.2%

. -0.2% 3.9%

4.1% 4.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.0%

3.1%

1.4% -7.0%

1.7%

3.2% -1.9% -1.7% 2.9%

2.8% 3.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4%

2.0%

. -3.5% 1.3%

0.9% 1.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1%

0.4%

. -0.2% 4.6%

4.8% 4.8% 3.9% 4.3% 4.2%

3.8%

3.4% -0.8%

2.6%

0.2% -3.5% -1.8% 3.4%

3.3% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3%

2.6%

. -3.5% 1.8%

1.4% 2.3% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2%

1.2%

4.9% 5.9%

6.1% 6.1% 5.3% 5.3% 5.0%

5.5%

2.4% -0.8% -4.4%

3.1% 4.5%

4.1% 4.3% 3.9% 4.1% 4.0%

4.0%

1.3% 2.8%

2.1% 2.7% 2.1% 2.4% 2.3%

2.2%

2.0% 5.8%

6.8% 6.3% 5.4% 5.5% 5.4%

5.3%

4.8% -7.8%

0.6%

9.0%

11%

0.6% 4.7%

4.9% 4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9%

3.7%

. -0.8% 3.6%

3.2% 3.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5%

2.3%

0.6% 3.9%

4.2% 4.9% 4.0% 4.3% 2.5%

3.5%

0.6%

1.9% -0.4% -0.9% 3.0%

3.0% 3.4% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2%

2.5%

. -2.4% 1.7%

1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0%

1.2%

. -1.1% 2.9%

4.4% 4.8% 3.7% 3.9% 3.8%

3.2%

-2.4% -5.1%

3.9%

0.8% -2.3% -2.5% 1.8%

3.0% 3.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9%

2.0%

. -4.1% 0.3%

1.0% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5%

0.5%

1.5% 5.6%

6.6% 6.5% 5.4% 5.3% 4.7%

5.1%

11% -8.4%

4.0%

9.8% -1.0% -0.6% 3.5%

3.6% 3.8% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2%

2.8%

. -2.6% 1.7%

1.2% 1.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5%

0.9%

0.1% 3.2%

3.9% 4.1% 3.3% 3.8% 3.6%

3.2%

2.7% -7.2%

5.6%

4.8% -2.7% -1.6% 1.9%

2.1% 2.5% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3%

1.7%

0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0%

0.1%

B
L

Edition Number: v1.0

-12% -3.1%

Lisbon FIR

1.1% -2.3%

Latvia

-0.2% -7.3% -0.2%

Ireland

2018

. -0.7% 1.5%

Iceland

2017

Hungary

2016

Greece

2015

Germany

2014

Georgia

2013

France

2012

AAGR
2019/
2019 2012

. -3.3% 0.4%

Released Issue

Page 65

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

IFR Movements
(growth)
Lithuania

Malta

Moldova

Morocco

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

12%

-12%

7.3%

4.0% 4.3% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6%

3.3%

. -2.3% 2.9%

1.7% 2.4% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9%

1.5%

9.7% 4.8%

4.7% 4.7% 4.2% 4.6% 4.6%

5.3%

3.5%

0.7%

12%

-15%

20%

8.4% 3.9%

3.5% 3.6% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5%

4.2%

7.1% 2.9%

2.4% 2.7% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4%

3.1%

7.4% 6.2%

6.7% 6.8% 6.4% 6.4% 6.2%

6.6%

18%

6.7%

24%

11%

5.7%

5.6% 5.1%

4.7% 5.2% 4.9% 5.2% 5.2%

5.1%

3.9% 3.7%

2.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.6% 3.6%

3.5%

1.6% 4.5%

5.2% 5.7% 4.9% 5.5% 5.5%

4.7%

2.5% -5.8%

8.6%

3.9% -8.1% -0.0% 3.2%

3.2% 3.7% 3.2% 3.7% 3.6%

2.9%

. -1.7% 1.8%

1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 2.1% 2.0%

1.3%

1.0% 3.1%

3.7% 3.9% 3.1% 3.4% 2.0%

2.9%

-1.6% -8.6%

1.7%

7.2% -0.2% -0.5% 2.0%

2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5%

1.9%

. -2.2% 0.6%

0.9% 1.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.2%

0.5%

1.5% 1.6%

3.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7%

2.0%

2.6% -4.4%

2.2%

4.9%

4.2%

0.8% 1.1%

3.1% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%

1.4%

. -0.4% 0.8%

0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5%

0.5%

2.0% 4.3%

6.5% 6.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.0%

5.0%

10% -7.6%

5.8%

9.4%

4.6%

0.3% 2.8%

4.2% 4.4% 3.8% 3.9% 3.7%

3.3%

. -1.4% 1.2%

2.0% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0%

1.5%

3.9% 6.4%

7.3% 7.2% 6.5% 6.6% 6.4%

6.3%

2.8% -2.3%

8.2%

3.8% -0.0%

2.2% 4.9%

5.1% 5.2% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9%

4.6%

0.4% 3.3%

2.8% 3.4% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0%

2.7%

1.2% 3.9%

4.6% 4.9% 3.8% 4.1% 3.9%

3.8%

6.5% -2.6%

4.5%

4.3% -3.9% -0.2% 3.0%

3.3% 3.5% 2.7% 3.1% 2.9%

2.6%

Serbia&Montenegro

Slovakia

. -1.7% 1.8%

1.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8%

1.3%

1.3% 5.7%

5.4% 5.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.5%

4.5%

8.6%

3.3%

5.9%

2.7% -4.1% -0.4% 4.4%

3.7% 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5%

3.2%

. -2.2% 2.7%

1.7% 2.4% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%

1.5%

4.6% 6.1%

5.9% 5.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.7%

5.3%

6.4% -2.4%

9.9%

3.1% -0.3%

2.9% 4.7%

4.0% 4.1% 3.6% 3.9% 3.8%

3.9%

Slovenia

1.1% 3.1%

2.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2%

2.2%

1.1% 5.8%

5.2% 5.3% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9%

4.2%

6.8% -4.2%

4.8%

7.5% -2.0% -0.5% 4.6%

3.5% 3.8% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2%

3.0%

Spain

. -2.3% 3.0%

1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8%

1.3%

. -3.6% 3.0%

3.9% 4.1% 3.4% 4.0% 3.9%

2.6%

-1.8% -9.5%

1.8%

3.6% -6.5% -5.2% 1.9%

2.3% 2.8% 2.5% 3.0% 2.9%

1.4%

0.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.8% 1.7%

-0.0%

B
L

Page 66

2018

1.0% -0.4% 4.7%

Santa Maria FIR

2017

13%

Romania

2016

5.3%

Poland

2015

6.6% 6.5% 5.4% 5.5% 5.1%

Norway

2014

1.6% 6.4%

Netherlands

2013

AAGR
2019/
2019 2012

. -6.8% 0.4%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

IFR Movements
(growth)
Sweden

Switzerland

2008

2009

2010

2011

3.9%

-11%

1.5%

0.3% -7.1%

0.7%

Turkey

Ukraine

9.1% -0.1% -1.3% 2.7%

3.8% 3.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4%

2.2%

. -2.9% 1.6%

1.7% 1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2%

0.8%

. -1.0% 3.4%

3.1% 4.6% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9%

2.2%

3.6% -1.7% -2.5% 2.6%

2.3% 3.0% 2.3% 2.2% 1.6%

1.6%

11%

8.2% 7.6% 6.9% 7.7% 7.4%

8.5%

8.6%

4.2%

13%

7.6%

2.6%

9.8% 9.1%

5.9% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 6.2%

7.0%

8.0% 7.3%

3.7% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4%

5.2%

2.6% 6.8%

7.5% 7.2% 6.4% 6.7% 6.6%

6.2%

8.7% -6.9%

14%

5.5%

2.9%

1.0% 5.4%

5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 5.1% 5.1%

4.6%

11%

. -0.6% 3.9%

3.4% 3.8% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5%

3.0%

. -0.0% 2.9%

3.6% 3.8% 3.1% 3.3% 2.8%

2.8%

2.8% -1.4% -1.4% 2.0%

2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5%

1.8%

-1.4% -9.4% -4.3%

. -2.9% 0.8%

1.4% 1.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5%

0.7%

0.3% 3.8%

4.3% 4.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5%

3.4%

0.4% -6.6%

0.7%

2.9% -2.6% -1.1% 2.8%

2.9% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%

2.3%

. -2.6% 1.4%

1.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6%

0.9%

. -0.5% 3.3%

4.0% 4.4% 3.3% 3.6% 3.2%

3.1%

0.3% -7.2%

0.2%

2.6% -3.0% -2.0% 2.3%

2.7% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5%

1.9%

. -3.6% 0.9%

0.9% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.4%

0.5%

0.1% 3.8%

4.4% 4.6% 3.6% 3.9% 3.6%

3.4%

0.4% -6.6%

0.8%

3.1% -2.4% -1.3% 2.8%

3.0% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%

2.3%

. -2.9% 1.4%

1.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6%

0.9%

. -0.5% 3.3%

4.1% 4.4% 3.3% 3.5% 3.2%

3.0%

0.4% -6.9%

0.2%

2.6% -2.6% -1.9% 2.3%

2.7% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5%

1.9%

. -3.5% 0.9%

0.9% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3%

0.5%

2.7% 4.7%

6.6% 6.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.1%

5.2%

11% -8.6%

5.5%

9.2%

3.6%

1.0% 3.2%

4.3% 4.4% 3.8% 3.9% 3.7%

3.5%

. -0.7% 1.6%

2.0% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0%

1.6%

0.2% 3.6%

4.7% 4.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.2%

3.7%

3.6% -0.1% -2.4% -1.3% 2.5%

3.2% 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.1%

2.5%

-0.8% -3.8%

. -3.0% 1.0%

1.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8%

0.9%

5.3% 6.8%

6.9% 6.9% 6.1% 6.2% 6.1%

6.3%

6.9% -0.4%

6.7%

3.3% -1.5%

3.6% 5.4%

4.8% 5.1% 4.5% 4.8% 4.7%

4.7%

1.9% 3.7%

2.6% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0%

2.9%

2.7% 4.9%

5.4% 5.5% 4.5% 4.3% 3.9%

4.5%

3.1% -5.2%

3.2%

2.7% -2.6%

1.1% 3.6%

3.6% 3.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2%

3.1%

. -0.7% 2.0%

1.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%

1.4%

B
L

Edition Number: v1.0

3.4%

FAB CE

5.3% 4.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.2%

0.3%

Danube FAB

. -0.0% 3.8%

0.6% 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2%

BLUE MED FAB

2018

. -4.2% 1.2%

Baltic FAB

2017

SES

2016

ESRA08

2015

EU27

2014

ESRA02

2013

UK

2012

AAGR
2019/
2019 2012

Released Issue

Page 67

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

IFR Movements
(growth)
FABEC

H
B

NEFAB

0.5% -7.1%

0.5%

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

. -0.1% 3.3%

3.4% 4.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.6%

2.8%

4.4% -1.9% -1.5% 2.4%

2.4% 2.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.2%

1.8%

. -3.1% 1.0%

0.7% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1%

0.4%

0.3% 3.0%

4.9% 3.8% 3.1% 3.1% 2.8%

3.0%

4.5% -6.6%

2.1%

7.0%

1.3% -0.9% 1.9%

3.3% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9%

1.8%

. -2.4% 1.1%

0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8%

0.5%

. -3.2% 3.1%

3.9% 4.1% 3.4% 4.0% 3.9%

2.7%

-1.8% -9.4%

1.8%

3.3% -9.8% -4.8% 1.9%

2.3% 2.8% 2.4% 3.0% 2.8%

1.5%

. -6.4% 0.4%

0.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7%

-0.0%

. -0.1% 3.0%

3.6% 3.8% 3.1% 3.4% 2.8%

2.8%

2.5% -1.5% -1.5% 2.1%

2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5%

1.8%

-1.5% -9.5% -4.3%

. -2.9% 0.8%

1.4% 1.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5%

0.7%

1.7% 3.5%

4.5% 3.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9%

3.2%

2.2% -9.7%

2.4%

5.7% -3.0%

0.4% 2.5%

3.2% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2%

2.2%

. -1.1% 1.4%

1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0%

0.8%

B
L

Page 68

2011

DK-SE FAB

2010

UK-Ireland FAB

2009

South West FAB

2008

AAGR
2019/
2019 2012

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

ANNEX F.

STATE BY STATE TWO-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST

Figure 55. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2013-2014.
2012 Actual
TSU
2,231,537

2013
STATFOR
Forecast TSU
2,199,537

2013/2012
Forecast
Growth
-1.4%

2014
STATFOR
Forecast TSU
2,244,226

2014/2013
Forecast
Growth
2.0%

2013 States
Forecast
TSU
2,349,875

2013
STATFOR
/ States
-6.4%
-10.4%

EB

Charging Area
Belgium/Luxembourg

ED

Germany

12,513,068

12,281,407

-1.9%

12,587,880

2.5%

13,708,080

LF

France

17,515,047

17,387,984

-0.7%

17,757,541

2.1%

18,436,674

-5.7%

EG

UK

9,607,736

9,490,017

-1.2%

9,692,689

2.1%

10,667,227

-11.0%

EH

Netherlands

2,587,398

2,590,915

0.1%

2,638,979

1.9%

2,733,000

-5.2%

EI

Ireland

3,805,985

3,789,698

-0.4%

3,908,944

3.1%

3,906,000

-3.0%

LS

Switzerland

1,398,574

1,357,522

-2.9%

1,393,271

2.6%

1,527,979

-11.2%

LP

Lisbon FIR

2,782,280

2,785,454

0.1%

2,849,882

2.3%

2,984,808

-6.7%

LO

Austria

2,469,156

2,416,561

-2.1%

2,500,809

3.5%

2,814,000

-14.1%

LE

Spain

8,443,969

8,083,571

-4.3%

8,258,767

2.2%

9,626,232

-16.0%

GC

Canary Islands

1,599,207

1,574,964

-1.5%

1,620,993

2.9%

1,746,350

-9.8%

AZ

Santa Maria FIR

3,874,372

3,809,920

-1.7%

3,936,252

3.3%

4,214,008

-9.6%

LG

Greece

4,357,569

4,344,504

-0.3%

4,545,947

4.6%

4,860,000

-10.6%

LT

Turkey

9,812,755

10,569,079

7.7%

11,436,035

8.2%

10,767,830

-1.8%

LM

Malta

641,289

700,012

9.2%

737,074

5.3%

588,338

19.0%

LI

Italy

8,139,130

8,016,854

-1.5%

8,182,882

2.1%

8,780,867

-8.7%

LC

Cyprus

1,303,262

1,340,880

2.9%

1,407,552

5.0%

1,320,000

1.6%

LH

Hungary

2,023,434

2,047,809

1.2%

2,151,820

5.1%

2,154,532

-5.0%

EN

Norway

1,845,568

1,876,929

1.7%

1,909,580

1.7%

1,797,642

4.4%

EK

Denmark

1,428,735

1,399,110

-2.1%

1,456,191

4.1%

1,572,317

-11.0%

LJ

Slovenia

425,205

424,131

-0.3%

446,537

5.3%

441,730

-4.0%

LR

Romania

3,575,195

3,657,127

2.3%

3,840,963

5.0%

3,802,000

-3.8%

LK

Czech Republic

2,304,641

2,314,780

0.4%

2,399,979

3.7%

2,419,960

-4.3%

ES

Sweden

3,126,197

3,090,765

-1.1%

3,169,762

2.6%

3,302,000

-6.4%

LZ

Slovakia

921,643

960,502

4.2%

1,006,008

4.7%

977,545

-1.7%

LD

Croatia

1,678,634

1,716,540

2.3%

1,803,630

5.1%

1,762,027

-2.6%

LB

Bulgaria

2,020,149

2,080,683

3.0%

2,218,095

6.6%

2,043,942

1.8%

LW

FYROM

174,312

175,854

0.9%

180,833

2.8%

190,400

-7.6%

LU

Moldova

205,863

218,275

6.0%

228,756

4.8%

218,000

0.1%

EF

Finland

790,296

754,759

-4.5%

771,147

2.2%

908,000

-16.9%

LA

Albania

442,921

435,425

-1.7%

456,335

4.8%

469,400

-7.2%

LQ

Bosnia-Herzegovina

680,299

681,418

0.2%

716,586

5.2%

716,646

-4.9%

UD

Armenia

153,559

161,053

4.9%

171,485

6.5%

159,993

0.7%

LY

Belgrade

1,718,633

1,726,742

0.5%

1,788,399

3.6%

1,799,947

-4.1%

EP

Poland

3,854,458

3,928,973

1.9%

4,080,509

3.9%

4,021,000

-2.3%

EY

Lithuania

429,631

426,990

-0.6%

446,153

4.5%

448,700

-4.8%

EE

Estonia

724,607

735,116

1.5%

758,841

3.2%

EV

Latvia

707,109

710,488

0.5%

739,322

4.1%

731,000

-2.8%

4,587,862

4,740,037

3.3%

4,975,683

5.0%

UK

Ukraine

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 69

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

CRCO88

Charging
Area
CRCO88

2012 Actual
TSU
68,828,330

2013
STATFOR
Forecast TSU
67,767,550

2013/2012
Forecast
Growth
-1.5%

2014
STATFOR
Forecast TSU
69,390,231

2014/2013
Forecast
Growth
2.4%

2013 States
Forecast
TSU
74,714,232

2013
STATFOR
/ States
-9.3%

ESRA02

ESRA02

113,602,206

113,456,142

-0.1%

117,283,024

3.4%

122,621,363

-7.5%

CRCO11

CRCO11

121,588,815

121,527,231

-0.1%

125,681,812

3.4%

130,968,049

PScheme

PScheme

103,572,074

102,768,041

-0.8%

105,722,342

2.9%

110,669,798

-7.8%

TOTAL

Total

126,901,283

127,002,385

0.1%

131,416,336

3.5%

130,968,049

-7.2%

(A)

Includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic. 72.800 service unites concerned for 2012.
Estimated number for the coming years is 75.000 per year.
(B)
The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Belgrade (Annex 1 of the Conditions of Application of the
Route Charges System, Text approved by the enlarged Commission and entered into force on 20.5.2011).
(C)
Latvia has only joined EUROCONTROL member states in 2011. Before that date, only yearly data was available for the TSU
(D)
Ukraine is not part of the CRCO but has asked STATFOR to produce an individual forecast for them as they will not have this
capacity in 2012. In the TOTAL column the 2012 states forecast and the percentage difference between, the 2012 States and
STATFOR forecast does not account for Ukraine
(E)

Percentage corrected for missing State Forecasts for Estonia (PScheme and Total) and Ukraine (only Total)

Page 70

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

-7.2%

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Figure 56. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 20132014.

2012 Actual
TSU
2,231,537

2013
STATFOR
Forecast TSU
2,199,537

2014
STATFOR
Forecast
TSU
2,244,226

2012
Actual
Exempted
SU in %
1.1%

2012 Actual
Chargeable
SU in %
98.9%

2013
Chargeable
SU
Estimate
2,176,000

2014
Chargeable
SU
Estimate
2,220,200

EB

Charging Area
Belgium/Luxembourg

ED
LF
EG
EH
EI
LS
LP
LO
LE
GC
AZ
LG
LT
LM
LI
LC
LH
EN
EK
LJ
LR
LK
ES
LZ
LD
LB
LW
LU
EF
LA
LQ
UD
LY
EP
EY
EE
EV
UK

Germany
France
UK
Netherlands
Ireland
Switzerland
Lisbon FIR
Austria
Spain
Canary Islands
Santa Maria FIR
Greece
Turkey
(B)
Malta
(B)
Italy
Cyprus
Hungary
Norway
Denmark
Slovenia
Romania
Czech Republic
Sweden
Slovakia
Croatia
Bulgaria
FYROM
Moldova
Finland
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Armenia
Belgrade
Poland
Lithuania
Estonia
Latvia
Ukraine

12,513,068
17,515,047
9,607,736
2,587,398
3,805,985
1,398,574
2,782,280
2,469,156
8,443,969
1,599,207
3,874,372
4,357,569
9,812,755
641,289
8,139,130
1,303,262
2,023,434
1,845,568
1,428,735
425,205
3,575,195
2,304,641
3,126,197
921,643
1,678,634
2,020,149
174,312
205,863
790,296
442,921
680,299
153,559
1,718,633
3,854,458
429,631
724,607
707,109
4,587,862

12,281,407
17,387,984
9,490,017
2,590,915
3,789,698
1,357,522
2,785,454
2,416,561
8,083,571
1,574,964
3,809,920
4,344,504
10,569,079
700,012
8,016,854
1,340,880
2,047,809
1,876,929
1,399,110
424,131
3,657,127
2,314,780
3,090,765
960,502
1,716,540
2,080,683
175,854
218,275
754,759
435,425
681,418
161,053
1,726,742
3,928,973
426,990
735,116
710,488
4,740,037

12,587,880
17,757,541
9,692,689
2,638,979
3,908,944
1,393,271
2,849,882
2,500,809
8,258,767
1,620,993
3,936,252
4,545,947
11,436,035
737,074
8,182,882
1,407,552
2,151,820
1,909,580
1,456,191
446,537
3,840,963
2,399,979
3,169,762
1,006,008
1,803,630
2,218,095
180,833
228,756
771,147
456,335
716,586
171,485
1,788,399
4,080,509
446,153
758,841
739,322
4,975,683

1.0%
1.0%
1.4%
1.1%
1.4%
0.3%
1.3%
0.2%
1.1%
0.7%
2.7%
2.1%
1.6%
4.0%
2.0%
1.1%
1.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
2.3%
2.5%
0.4%
2.0%
0.2%
0.9%
0.1%
0.1%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.4%
0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%

99.0%
99.0%
98.6%
98.9%
98.6%
99.7%
98.7%
99.8%
98.9%
99.3%
97.3%
97.9%
98.4%
96.0%
98.0%
98.9%
98.1%
98.9%
99.3%
99.7%
97.7%
97.5%
99.6%
98.0%
99.8%
99.1%
99.9%
99.9%
99.1%
99.6%
99.9%
99.9%
99.9%
99.6%
99.7%
100.0%
99.7%
99.8%

12,161,300
17,220,700
9,353,200
2,561,700
3,737,200
1,353,900
2,748,900
2,411,600
7,996,800
1,564,600
3,708,000
4,251,300
10,402,100
672,200
7,853,500
1,326,300
2,009,400
1,856,100
1,389,500
422,700
3,574,000
2,256,500
3,077,500
941,300
1,712,400
2,061,400
175,700
218,200
748,200
433,500
680,900
160,900
1,725,400
3,912,700
425,500
734,900
708,300
4,731,400

12,464,800
17,586,700
9,552,900
2,609,200
3,854,800
1,389,500
2,812,400
2,495,600
8,170,100
1,610,400
3,830,900
4,448,400
11,255,400
707,800
8,016,200
1,392,200
2,111,500
1,888,400
1,446,200
445,000
3,753,700
2,339,500
3,156,100
985,900
1,799,200
2,197,600
180,600
228,600
764,500
454,300
716,000
171,300
1,787,000
4,063,600
444,600
758,600
737,000
4,966,600

CRCO88
ESRA02
CRCO11
PScheme
TOTAL

CRCO88
ESRA02
CRCO11
PScheme
Total

68,828,330
113,602,206
121,588,815
103,572,074
126,901,283

67,767,550
113,456,142
121,527,231
102,768,041
127,002,385

69,390,231
117,283,024
125,681,812
105,722,342
131,416,336

1.1%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%

98.9%
98.7%
98.7%
98.8%
98.8%

66,994,100
111,947,800
119,994,100
101,510,800
125,458,600

68,598,300
115,723,800
124,096,200
104,429,000
129,818,900

(A)

(A)

Includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic.72.800 service units concerned for 2012.
Estimated number for the coming years is 75.000 per year.
(B)
Note that the Chargeable SU in % have been returned to levels before2011. In 2011 it was for Malta equal to 88% and for
Italy equal to 96% because of increased military traffic.

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 71

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

ANNEX G.

SEVEN-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE

This annex shows the EUROCONTROL medium-term forecast of service units per individual
charging area. Forecasts for Armenia, Lithuania, Poland and Belgrade and Ukraine must be
treated with extra care as they are based on a limited set of historical data.
Figure 57. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2008-2019.
Total service units
(thousands)
Albania

Armenia

Austria

Growth
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2019/
2012

444

470

494

519

540

563

586

32%

325

355

404

448

443

435

456

472

491

507

524

541

22%

427

441

449

460

468

478

488

10%

167

181

197

210

225

240

258

68%

111

146

170

154

161

171

182

191

201

212

224

46%

155

162

169

175

181

188

196

28%

2,468

2,595

2,726

2,862

2,976

3,091

3,205

30%

2,566

2,424

2,449

2,519

2,469

2,417

2,501

2,585

2,678

2,757

2,846

2,932

19%

2,364

2,401

2,434

2,482

2,514

2,555

2,596

5%

Belgium/Luxembourg H

2,229

2,296

2,372

2,476

2,547

2,626

2,701

21%

2,220

2,079

2,115

2,212

2,232

2,200

2,244

2,299

2,365

2,418

2,480

2,539

14%

2,169

2,187

2,205

2,238

2,258

2,286

2,318

4%

Belgrade

Bosnia-Herzegovina

Bulgaria

Canary Islands

Croatia

Cyprus

Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

Page 72

1,767

1,861

1,960

2,068

2,162

2,263

2,365

38%

1,748

1,783

1,819

1,831

1,719

1,727

1,788

1,855

1,932

1,999

2,073

2,147

25%

1,686

1,712

1,744

1,787

1,822

1,862

1,903

11%

699

744

785

829

869

912

955

40%

525

579

637

717

680

681

717

743

773

800

829

859

26%

663

689

700

716

730

745

760

12%

2,116

2,275

2,421

2,578

2,726

2,888

3,056

51%

1,747

1,798

1,840

2,019

2,020

2,081

2,218

2,321

2,435

2,541

2,660

2,783

38%

2,044

2,157

2,212

2,283

2,344

2,413

2,485

23%

1,605

1,676

1,734

1,795

1,851

1,920

1,989

24%

1,713

1,492

1,540

1,666

1,599

1,575

1,621

1,646

1,677

1,702

1,738

1,774

11%

1,545

1,566

1,559

1,565

1,568

1,580

1,590

-1%

1,750

1,865

1,966

2,077

2,171

2,273

2,376

42%

1,271

1,298

1,451

1,634

1,679

1,717

1,804

1,871

1,948

2,017

2,091

2,163

29%

1,683

1,739

1,770

1,814

1,849

1,888

1,928

15%

1,361

1,445

1,527

1,617

1,698

1,792

1,892

45%

1,311

1,273

1,352

1,347

1,303

1,341

1,408

1,462

1,524

1,580

1,643

1,709

31%

1,322

1,370

1,399

1,436

1,466

1,502

1,541

18%

2,358

2,476

2,608

2,750

2,872

2,998

3,106

35%

2,019

2,023

2,190

2,305

2,305

2,315

2,400

2,485

2,579

2,661

2,741

2,820

22%

2,271

2,319

2,355

2,407

2,442

2,476

2,509

9%

1,422

1,496

1,556

1,614

1,660

1,711

1,754

23%

1,474

1,359

1,411

1,470

1,429

1,399

1,456

1,498

1,537

1,568

1,604

1,638

15%

1,375

1,413

1,428

1,451

1,464

1,480

1,495

5%

752

789

842

900

953

1,001

1,041

44%

697

632

627

704

725

735

759

791

827

860

895

930

28%

719

729

743

763

779

797

815

13%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Total service units


(thousands)
FYROM

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lisbon FIR

Lithuania

Malta

Moldova

Netherlands

Norway

Growth
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2019/
2012

178

185

195

205

214

223

233

34%

182

180

183

194

174

176

181

187

195

201

208

215

23%

173

176

179

183

186

190

195

12%

769

796

837

880

917

956

993

26%

791

727

740

832

790

755

771

796

822

843

867

890

13%

740

746

755

768

776

785

794

0%

17,561

18,078

18,637

19,461

19,976

20,564

21,130

21%

18,034

16,780

16,637

17,691

17,515

17,388

17,758

18,149

18,681

19,090

19,558

19,983

14%

17,209

17,384

17,504

17,759

17,917

18,139

18,386

5%

12,415

12,858

13,400

14,011

14,478

14,981

15,434

23%

12,749

11,913

12,294

12,740

12,513

12,281

12,588

12,950

13,361

13,695

14,059

14,406

15%

12,138

12,278

12,408

12,616

12,739

12,889

13,044

4%

4,439

4,720

4,959

5,219

5,447

5,701

5,961

37%

4,258

4,139

4,454

4,546

4,358

4,345

4,546

4,708

4,899

5,069

5,253

5,440

25%

4,249

4,367

4,443

4,555

4,645

4,752

4,862

12%

2,094

2,225

2,365

2,512

2,648

2,790

2,929

45%

2,092

2,038

2,091

2,067

2,023

2,048

2,152

2,245

2,346

2,439

2,542

2,645

31%

2,001

2,076

2,124

2,185

2,234

2,290

2,346

16%

3,839

3,988

4,162

4,371

4,548

4,746

4,872

28%

3,823

3,561

3,615

3,771

3,806

3,790

3,909

4,033

4,174

4,300

4,439

4,582

20%

3,739

3,822

3,892

3,983

4,049

4,125

4,210

11%

8,226

8,543

8,934

9,367

9,728

10,123

10,517

29%

8,660

8,145

8,621

8,370

8,139

8,017

8,183

8,432

8,724

8,973

9,251

9,518

17%

7,805

7,808

7,891

8,038

8,145

8,278

8,409

3%

724

770

820

872

919

967

1,012

43%

656

596

634

702

707

710

739

765

794

819

847

874

24%

697

710

719

733

743

754

766

8%

2,824

2,925

3,044

3,172

3,283

3,415

3,544

27%

2,677

2,501

2,624

2,821

2,782

2,785

2,850

2,918

2,998

3,064

3,146

3,226

16%

2,746

2,774

2,789

2,824

2,849

2,887

2,925

5%

438

468

499

531

561

592

622

45%

384

341

371

420

430

427

446

465

485

503

522

541

26%

416

425

433

444

453

462

472

10%

718

766

813

864

912

965

1,021

59%

422

416

487

506

641

700

737

770

808

842

880

919

43%

683

708

730

755

776

801

826

29%

225

242

255

270

286

303

321

56%

115

139

181

195

206

218

229

238

249

260

272

284

38%

211

216

221

228

235

242

250

21%

2,629

2,710

2,814

2,926

3,018

3,122

3,199

24%

2,621

2,426

2,476

2,595

2,587

2,591

2,639

2,711

2,783

2,843

2,916

2,990

16%

2,552

2,563

2,593

2,634

2,657

2,690

2,725

5%

1,911

1,964

2,055

2,120

2,179

2,245

2,311

25%

1,537

1,495

1,583

1,713

1,846

1,877

1,910

1,978

2,023

2,059

2,100

2,142

16%

1,842

1,854

1,883

1,914

1,931

1,952

1,972

7%

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 73

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Total service units


(thousands)
Poland

Romania

Santa Maria FIR

Slovakia

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Switzerland

Turkey

UK

Ukraine

ESRA02

CRCO11

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2019/
2012

3,971

4,168

4,419

4,686

4,921

5,170

5,417

41%

3,230

3,092

3,313

3,676

3,854

3,929

4,081

4,247

4,426

4,586

4,761

4,932

28%

3,886

3,989

4,069

4,172

4,253

4,344

4,434

15%

3,735

3,979

4,255

4,539

4,814

5,111

5,418

52%

3,240

3,133

3,414

3,533

3,575

3,657

3,841

4,031

4,232

4,422

4,631

4,849

36%

3,578

3,698

3,805

3,931

4,038

4,157

4,281

20%

3,888

4,036

4,222

4,444

4,621

4,826

5,025

30%

3,484

3,479

3,696

3,983

3,874

3,810

3,936

4,071

4,228

4,355

4,502

4,646

20%

3,731

3,830

3,908

4,004

4,071

4,155

4,240

9%

979

1,044

1,104

1,165

1,225

1,288

1,348

46%

762

768

856

900

922

961

1,006

1,045

1,087

1,127

1,170

1,215

32%

942

968

986

1,011

1,032

1,055

1,079

17%

433

463

486

512

533

555

577

36%

342

331

365

425

425

424

447

462

480

495

512

529

24%

415

429

436

445

453

461

470

10%

8,200

8,479

8,809

9,180

9,493

9,877

10,259

21%

9,129

8,358

8,642

9,099

8,444

8,084

8,259

8,456

8,702

8,918

9,186

9,451

12%

7,965

8,023

8,067

8,183

8,278

8,421

8,565

1%

3,136

3,257

3,431

3,583

3,708

3,842

3,967

27%

3,271

2,906

2,950

3,185

3,126

3,091

3,170

3,294

3,398

3,482

3,574

3,664

17%

3,043

3,079

3,138

3,199

3,236

3,281

3,324

6%

1,376

1,426

1,473

1,540

1,579

1,623

1,664

19%

1,472

1,396

1,409

1,431

1,399

1,358

1,393

1,427

1,471

1,506

1,543

1,574

13%

1,339

1,356

1,366

1,386

1,399

1,416

1,434

3%

10,724

11,732

12,629

13,543

14,426

15,461

16,540

69%

7,629

8,086

8,923

9,618

9,813

10,569

11,436

12,071

12,760

13,471

14,241

15,057

53%

10,412

11,122

11,519

11,985

12,447

12,944

13,471

37%

9,617

9,905

10,282

10,706

11,050

11,434

11,748

22%

11,044

9,914

9,480

9,860

9,608

9,490

9,693

9,961

10,241

10,480

10,754

11,032

15%

9,361

9,461

9,602

9,782

9,894

10,036

10,192

6%

4,824

5,138

5,505

5,890

6,259

6,668

7,096

55%

3,903

3,727

4,188

4,465

4,588

4,740

4,976

5,233

5,508

5,770

6,062

6,365

39%

4,657

4,811

4,967

5,152

5,312

5,495

5,686

24%

. 115,227 120,446 126,070 132,360 137,587 143,449 149,091

31%

112,655 106,577 110,070 115,248 113,602 113,456 117,283 121,104 125,405 129,178 133,408 137,615

21%

. 111,646 113,889 115,604 118,043 119,891 122,127 124,460

10%

68,652

70,972

73,674

76,946

79,422

82,224

84,771

23%

71,532

66,323

66,977

70,390

68,828

67,768

69,390

71,208

73,360

75,129

77,169

79,135

15%

66,859

67,644

68,328

69,456

70,193

71,179

72,225

5%

. 123,438 129,108 135,243 142,077 147,783 154,155 160,305

32%

119,521 113,434 117,393 123,211 121,589 121,527 125,682 129,834 134,498 138,595 143,178 147,733

22%

H
B
L

Page 74

2008

B
CRCO88

Growth

. 119,576 122,018 123,888 126,531 128,540 130,960 133,479

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

10%

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

Total service units


(thousands)
PScheme

Total

Growth
2008

2009

2010

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2019/
2012

.
104,941

. 101,153 102,659 103,971 105,942 107,330 109,063 110,864

7%

. 129,014 135,036 141,590 148,867 154,995 161,824 168,442

33%

124,122 117,793 122,208 128,380 126,901 127,002 131,416 135,858 140,834 145,225 150,135 155,029

22%

. 104,347 108,581 113,382 118,812 123,221 128,091 132,688

28%

98,057 100,579 105,126 103,572 102,768 105,722 108,934 112,558 115,644 119,120 122,526

18%

2013

2012

2011

. 124,951 127,558 129,598 132,446 134,631 137,252 139,980

(a) Total in 2008 does not include Armenia for which data for this year are not available.
(b)Total from 2009 includes TSU of all countries
(c) CRCO11 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012 of all TSU
either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year.
(d) PScheme stands for the sum over all the 29 states that are currently involved in the EU-wide performance target setting (27
EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland).

Figure 58. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units growth 20082019.
AAGR
2019/
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012

TSU Annual growth


2008
Albania

Armenia

Austria

2009

2010
.

2011
.

2012

3.8%

0.2% 6.0% 5.0% 5.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.1%

4.1%

-1.0% -1.7% 4.8% 3.5% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2%

2.9%

. -3.6% 3.4% 1.7% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%

1.4%

8.8% 8.5% 8.6% 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.2%

7.7%

B
L

. 31.5% 16.1%

-9.5%

4.9% 6.5% 6.3% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%

5.6%

1.0% 4.6% 4.2% 3.3% 3.7% 3.9% 4.2%

3.5%

9.1% 13.9% 10.8%

. -0.1% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7%

3.8%

2.3%

-5.5%

1.0%

2.9%

-2.0% -2.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0%

2.5%

. -4.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6%

0.7%

Belgium/Luxembourg H

. -0.1% 3.0% 3.3% 4.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8%

2.8%

1.7%

-6.4%

1.7%

4.6%

0.9% -1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.6% 2.4%

1.9%

. -2.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.5% 0.9% 1.3% 1.4%

0.5%

Belgrade

Bosnia-Herzegovina

2.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.5% 4.5% 4.7% 4.5%

4.7%

90.0%

2.0%

2.0%

0.6%

-6.1%

0.5% 3.6% 3.7% 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6%

3.2%

. -1.9% 1.6% 1.8% 2.5% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2%

1.5%

2.8% 6.4% 5.6% 5.6% 4.8% 4.9% 4.7%

5.0%

9.1% 10.3% 10.1% 12.5%

-5.1%

0.2% 5.2% 3.7% 4.0% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5%

3.4%

B
Bulgaria

Canary Islands

. -2.5% 3.8% 1.7% 2.3% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0%

1.6%

4.8% 7.5% 6.4% 6.5% 5.7% 5.9% 5.8%

6.1%

7.5%

3.0%

2.3%

9.7%

0.1%

3.0% 6.6% 4.6% 4.9% 4.4% 4.7% 4.6%

4.7%

1.2% 5.5% 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0%

3.0%

0.4% 4.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.1% 3.7% 3.6%

3.2%

1.3% -12.9%

3.2%

8.2%

-4.0% -1.5% 2.9% 1.5% 1.9% 1.5% 2.1% 2.1%

1.5%
-0.1%

H
B

Croatia

Cyprus

Edition Number: v1.0

. -3.4% 1.4% -0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7%

4.2% 6.6% 5.4% 5.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.5%

5.1%

5.6%

2.2% 11.8% 12.6%

2.7%

2.3% 5.1% 3.7% 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5%

3.7%

0.2% 3.3% 1.8% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%

2.0%

11.3%

-2.9%

4.4% 6.2% 5.7% 5.9% 5.0% 5.5% 5.6%

5.5%

6.2% -0.3%

-3.3%

2.9% 5.0% 3.9% 4.2% 3.6% 4.0% 4.0%

3.9%

1.4% 3.6% 2.1% 2.7% 2.1% 2.5% 2.6%

2.4%

Released Issue

Page 75

10%

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

AAGR
2019/
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012

TSU Annual growth


2008
Czech Republic

Denmark

Estonia

FYROM

Finland

France

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Ireland

Italy

Latvia

Lisbon FIR

Lithuania

Malta

Moldova

2010

2011

2012

2.3% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 4.5% 4.4% 3.6%

4.4%

4.1%

0.2%

8.3%

5.2%

-0.0%

0.4% 3.7% 3.5% 3.8% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9%

2.9%

. -1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3%

1.2%

. -0.5% 5.2% 4.0% 3.7% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5%

3.0%

-0.4%

-7.8%

3.8%

4.2%

-2.8% -2.1% 4.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3% 2.1%

2.0%

. -3.7% 2.7% 1.1% 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0%

0.7%

3.8% 5.0% 6.7% 6.9% 5.8% 5.1% 4.0%

5.3%

-9.4% -0.8% 12.3%

2.9%

1.5% 3.2% 4.2% 4.6% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9%

3.6%

7.2%

. -0.8% 1.4% 2.0% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3%

1.7%

2.4% 3.9% 5.1% 5.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.3%

4.2%

0.2%

-1.0%

1.7%

5.9% -10.2%

0.9% 2.8% 3.6% 3.9% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4%

3.1%

. -0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%

1.6%

. -2.6% 3.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9%

3.3%

6.1%

-8.1%

1.7% 12.6%

-5.1% -4.5% 2.2% 3.2% 3.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7%

1.7%

. -6.4% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2%

0.1%

0.3% 2.9% 3.1% 4.4% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8%

2.7%

-7.0% -0.9%

6.3%

-1.0% -0.7% 2.1% 2.2% 2.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2%

1.9%

0.2%

. -1.7% 1.0% 0.7% 1.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4%

0.7%

. -0.8% 3.6% 4.2% 4.6% 3.3% 3.5% 3.0%

3.0%

2.7%

-6.6%

3.2%

3.6%

-1.8% -1.9% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5%

2.0%

. -3.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2%

0.6%

1.9% 6.3% 5.1% 5.2% 4.4% 4.7% 4.6%

4.6%

5.2%

-2.8%

7.6%

2.1%

-4.2% -0.3% 4.6% 3.6% 4.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6%

3.2%

. -2.5% 2.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3%

1.6%

3.5% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.0%

5.4%

2.6% -1.2%

-2.1%

1.2% 5.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1%

3.9%

-0.6%

-2.6%

. -1.1% 3.7% 2.3% 2.9% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4%

2.1%

0.9% 3.9% 4.4% 5.0% 4.1% 4.4% 2.7%

3.6%

0.0%

-6.9%

1.5%

4.3%

0.9% -0.4% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2%

2.7%

. -1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 2.3% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1%

1.5%

0.5%

-6.0%

4.7%

-9.1%

1.5% 3.6% 4.0% 4.2% 3.5% 4.0% 3.8%

3.5%

1.7%

-6.6%

4.9%

7.5%

-1.4%

. -11.0%

11.9%

23.4% 20.4% 30.7%

H
B
L

Page 76

2009

1.1% 3.9% 4.6% 4.8% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9%

3.7%

-2.8% -1.5% 2.1% 3.0% 3.5% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9%

2.3%

. -4.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6%

0.5%

2.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 5.3% 5.2% 4.7%

5.3%

6.4% 10.8%

0.7%

0.5% 4.1% 3.5% 3.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2%

3.1%

. -1.4% 1.8% 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6%

1.2%

5.9% -2.9%

2.1%
0.7%

2.0% 6.7% 6.6% 6.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2%

5.4%

2.3% -0.6% 4.5% 4.1% 4.4% 3.7% 3.9% 3.6%

3.4%

. -3.2% 2.2% 1.9% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0%

1.3%

. 11.9% 6.8% 6.1% 6.3% 5.5% 5.8% 5.8%

6.9%

8.7% 13.2%

-1.4% 17.0%

0.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7% 2.2% 2.7% 2.6%

. -1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3%

3.9% 26.8%

9.2% 5.3% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.5% 4.5%

5.3%

6.5% 3.8% 3.0% 3.4% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2%

3.7%

9.5% 7.2% 5.5% 6.1% 5.8% 6.0% 5.8%

6.6%

7.4%

5.7%

6.0% 4.8% 3.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.6% 4.6%

4.7%

2.6% 2.3% 2.4% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1%

2.8%

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

AAGR
2019/
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012

TSU Annual growth


2008
Netherlands

Norway

Poland

Romania

Santa Maria FIR

Slovakia

Slovenia

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

UK

ESRA02

CRCO88

CRCO11

Edition Number: v1.0

2011

2012

1.6% 3.1% 3.8% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 2.5%

3.1%

-0.7%

-7.5%

2.1%

4.8%

-0.3%

0.1% 1.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 2.6% 2.5%

2.1%

. -1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 1.6% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3%

0.7%

3.5% 2.8% 4.6% 3.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9%

3.3%

8.3%

-2.8%

5.9%

8.2%

7.8%

-4.3%

0.1%

-3.3%

B
L

1.7% 1.7% 3.6% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0%

2.1%

. -0.2% 0.7% 1.6% 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0%

0.9%

3.0% 4.9% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8%

5.0%

7.1% 11.0%

4.8%

1.9% 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6%

3.6%

0.8% 2.7% 2.0% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%

2.0%

4.5% 6.5% 6.9% 6.7% 6.1% 6.2% 6.0%

6.1%

9.0%

3.5%

1.2%

2.3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.7% 4.7%

4.4%

0.1% 3.4% 2.9% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0%

2.6%

0.3% 3.8% 4.6% 5.2% 4.0% 4.4% 4.1%

3.8%

5.4%

-0.1%

6.3%

7.8%

-2.7% -1.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3.9% 3.0% 3.4% 3.2%

2.6%

. -3.7% 2.7% 2.0% 2.4% 1.7% 2.1% 2.1%

1.3%

6.2% 6.6% 5.8% 5.6% 5.1% 5.1% 4.7%

5.6%

0.7% 11.5%

5.2%

2.4%

4.2% 4.7% 3.9% 4.0% 3.6% 3.9% 3.8%

4.0%

6.1%

2.2% 2.7% 1.9% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2%

2.3%

1.9% 6.8% 5.1% 5.3% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9%

4.5%

8.2%

0.1% -0.3% 5.3% 3.5% 3.9% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2%

3.2%

. -2.5% 3.5% 1.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.8%

1.4%

-3.1% 10.3% 16.3%


.

. -2.9% 3.4% 3.9% 4.2% 3.4% 4.0% 3.9%

2.8%

-1.3%

-8.4%

3.4%

5.3%

-7.2% -4.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.9% 2.5% 3.0% 2.9%

1.6%

. -5.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7%

0.2%

0.3% 3.8% 5.4% 4.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3%

3.5%

5.7% -11.2%

1.5%

7.9%

-1.8% -1.1% 2.6% 3.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5%

2.3%

H
L

. -2.7% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3%

0.9%

. -1.6% 3.6% 3.3% 4.6% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5%

2.5%

1.4%

-5.1%

0.9%

1.5%

-2.3% -2.9% 2.6% 2.4% 3.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0%

1.7%

. -4.3% 1.3% 0.7% 1.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2%

0.4%

9.3% 9.4% 7.6% 7.2% 6.5% 7.2% 7.0%

7.7%

6.0% 10.4%

7.8%

2.0%

7.7% 8.2% 5.5% 5.7% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7%

6.3%

6.4%

6.1% 6.8% 3.6% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1%

4.6%

0.1% 3.0% 3.8% 4.1% 3.2% 3.5% 2.7%

2.9%

1.4% -10.2% -4.4%

B
Ukraine

2010

B
Switzerland

2009

4.0%

-2.6% -1.2% 2.1% 2.8% 2.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6%

2.0%

. -2.6% 1.1% 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6%

0.8%

5.1% 6.5% 7.1% 7.0% 6.3% 6.5% 6.4%

6.4%

12.6%

-4.5% 12.4%

6.6%

2.8%

3.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.8% 5.1% 5.0%

4.8%

1.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.7% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5%

3.1%

1.4% 4.5% 4.7% 5.0% 3.9% 4.3% 3.9%

4.0%

2.1%

-5.4%

3.3%

4.7%

-1.4% -0.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.2%

2.8%

. -1.7% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9%

1.3%

. -0.3% 3.4% 3.8% 4.4% 3.2% 3.5% 3.1%

3.0%

1.1%

-7.3%

1.0%

5.1%

-2.2% -1.5% 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 2.4% 2.7% 2.5%

2.0%

. -2.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.6% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5%

0.7%

1.5% 4.6% 4.8% 5.1% 4.0% 4.3% 4.0%

4.0%

6.1%

-5.1%

3.5%

5.0%

-1.3% -0.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.2%

2.8%

. -1.7% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9%

1.3%

Released Issue

Page 77

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

AAGR
2019/
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012

TSU Annual growth


2008
PScheme

Total

2009

2010

2011

2012

0.7% 4.1% 4.4% 4.8% 3.7% 4.0% 3.6%

3.6%

5.3%

-6.6%

2.6%

4.5%

-1.5% -0.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 2.9%

2.4%

. -2.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7%

1.0%

1.7% 4.7% 4.9% 5.1% 4.1% 4.4% 4.1%

4.1%

6.3%

-5.1%

3.7%

5.1%

-1.2%

0.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.7% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3%

2.9%

. -1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0%

1.4%

(a) The 2007, 2008 and 2009 growth figures for CRCO11, PScheme and Total are adjusted to compensate for the increase in
TSU due to the introduction of new countries in the total (in 2007, introduction of Belgrade with 920 thousands TSU in 2008,
introduction of Poland and Lithuania with 3,614 thousands TSU - in 2009, introduction of Armenia with 111 thousand TSU)
(b) The 2008 growth figures for PScheme is adjusted for increase in TSU due to Poland and Lithuania (3,614 thousands) newly
included into the total.

Page 78

Released Issue

Edition Number: v1.00

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019

ANNEX H.

REFERENCES

Electronic versions of the present report and the reports reference hereafter are
available from the STATFOR webpage: www.eurocontrol.int/statfor.

EUROCONTROL 7-Year forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018, EUROCONTROL


STATFOR September 2012. [MTF12b]

EUROCONTROL Short- and Medium- Term Forecast of Service Units: September 2012
update, EUROCONTROL STATFOR September 2012

STATFOR Website is available at www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

EUROCONTROL 20-year Forecast 2020-2035, to be published

Industry Monitor, EUROCONTROL STATFOR, January 2013

Challenge of Growth 2013, EUROCONTROL, to be published

EUROCONTROL 7-year forecast, IFR Movements (2012-2018,) EUROCONTROL


STATFOR February 2012 [MTF12]

EUROCONTROL Glossary for Flight Statistics and Forecasts, EUROCONTROL


STATFOR, January 2005

STATFOR Interactive Dashboard is available at: www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid

Edition Number: v1.0

Released Issue

Page 79

For further information, please contact:



STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service
statfor.info@eurocontrol.int
http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

EUROCONTROL

The Statistics and


Forecasts Service
(STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008
certified

2013 - European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)



This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may
be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the
source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from
EUROCONTROL.