Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 20, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 20, 2013

Highlights
Indian Rupee touched an all time low of 63.30 in yesterdays trade. Global equities ended on negative note in yesterdays trading session. Indian Rupee fell more than 2 percent, biggest decline since Jan 2011. Asian stocks are trading on a negative note today as the tone is now cautious with markets awaiting the FOMC Meeting Minutes that is scheduled on Wednesday, along with keeping an eye on what the central bankers ers indicate at the Jackson Hole Symposium which is be being held on Thursday and Friday.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 19, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5565.7 18789.3 15010.74 1646.1 17463.5 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 107.10 1371.70 23.32

0.8 0.7 -0.5 -0.6 1.2 -1.5 0.2 0.2 -0.3 0.7 1.7

-7.8 -6.7 -2.7 -2.7 1.2 4.2 16.3 -0.1 0.9 2.8 9.3

-7.8 -6.7 -3.6 -2.7 7.5 4.2 20.9 2.7 -0.1 2.7 15.2

3.4 2.7 13.1 16.1 16.6 0.5 -1.3 66.3 11.6 -15.1 -16.7

US Dollar Index
The Dollar Index closed on a flat note in Mondays trade, taking direction from a variety of factors that is affecting global markets. Risk sentiments in yesterdays trade were weak and on the back of that, equities from Asia to Europe to the US closed in the red. While risk aversion set tone for a stronger Dollar Index, what we saw yesterday was a cautious approach that is leading to investors remaining unsure ahead of the Federal Reserves move. US stocks closed in the red yesterday as markets now await the FOMC Meeting Minutes and now look forward for a clearer direction towards the pullback in the QE.

7312.75 -

-0.8 -

0.6 -

-6.8 -

-1.8 -

Dollar/INR
Another all-time low was hit by the Rupee on Monday, with the currency touching 63.30 and losing 148 paise in intraday trade. Weak domestic market fundamentals, dollar demand, choppy domestic equities and concerns whether the current actions and measures will have any impact on the Rupee led d to further weakness in the currency. On one hand, the Rupee weakened sharply and on the other hand the economic weakness of the Indian economy drove equity markets into mayhem. The Sensex and the Nifty fell around 1.6 percent and investors showed a concern on account of flight of capital seen moving away from emerging economies and going into the emerging and developing economies. In its efforts to curb depreciation in the Rupee, the gover government on Monday banned duty free high-end end imports of TV by air travellers. Although the Rupee strengthened marginally, it still closed yesterdays trade more than 2 percent weaker. For the month of August 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1098.40 crores th ($181.20 million) as on 19 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.67190.80 crores ($12667 million) till 19 August 2013. Outlook Weakness in the Rupee is expected to continue today as domestic markets witness negative sentiments ents on the back of continuing depreciation in the currency despite central bank efforts. Additionally, the Dollar Index is likely to strengthen on the back of increased risk aversion in the global markets, thus adding another negative factor for the Rupee.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on August 19, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.26 63.13 63.33 63.35

-0.041 0.041 -2.4 2.17 2.17

-0.1 -3.3 6.37 6.41

-1.3 -5.7 6.37 6.41

2.3 -12.1 13.45 13.49

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for August 20, 2013 Support 62.80/62.60 Resistance 63.50/63.70

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 20, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro traded higher on Monday and closed with gains to the tune of 0.03 percent on the back of indication by Germanys central bank in its monthly report guidance that while borrowing cost were low currently, they could be increased as and when in order to keep a check on inflation. This boosted the Euro on the back ck of hopes that interest rates could rise, thus making the currency look attractive. Outlook In today's session, we expect Euro to trade lower on the back of strength in the DX. Further, weak global market sentiments will act as a negative factor. However, er, expectations of favorable economic data from the region will cushion sharp fall or even reversal in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 84.30/84.00 84.90/85.20 valid for August 20, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on August 19, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3333 82.62 82.8 82.8

0.030 0.0 -2.17 -2.18

0.3 -1.7 5.94 5.92

1.7 -6.1 5.94 5.92

8.0 -17.0 20.12 20.11

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
GBP (% change) The Pound witnessed a gain of 0.13 percent on Monday but gains in the currency were capped on the back of data that indicated a drop in UK home prices. British home values declined 1.8 percent in August13, marking the first decline in 2013. The currency touched an intra day high of 1.5673 and closed at 1.5647. The Confederation of British Industry raised their forecasts for UK economic growth and this factor is expected to support further gains in the currency, which is up around 5 percent in the past six months, marking the highest gains amongst 10 developed-nation nation currencies. Outlook Technical Chart Sterling Pound We expect Pound to trade on a negative note in today's trade on the back of stronger DX. Additionally, weak global market sentiments will exert downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 20, 2013 Support 98.70/98.50 Resistance 99.30/99.55

Source: Telequote

as on August 19, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5647 98.788 99.27

0.13 2.53 2.34

1.2 4.14 9.16

2.8 9.02 9.16

-0.4 12.90 13.44

99.24

2.30

9.13

9.13

13.39

Source: Reuters

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 20, 2013

JPY/INR
The Yen depreciated by 0.03 percent on Monday as data by the Ministry of Finance showed that Japans imports increased more than exports by 1.02 trillion Yen in July13. The trade deficit widened and marked the biggest deficit since January13, when it was at a record 1.63 trillion Yen. The currency touched an intra day low of 98.12 and closed at 97.55. Outlook day perspective, we expect Yen to appreciate on account From the intra-day of weak global market sentiments which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 20, 2013 Support 64.30/64.10 Resistance 64.80/65.00

JPY (% change)
Last Prev day

as on August 19, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

97.55 0.646 9 64.68 64.68

0.031 2.31 1.72 1.73

0.7 2.45 8.87 8.91

-2.8 9.68 8.87 8.91

22.9 -7.65 -7.92 -7.90

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 20, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

German PPI m/m

Euro

11:30am

0.2%

0.0%

Medium

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