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Tech Mahindra
Performance Highlights
(` cr) Net revenue EBITDA EBITDA margin (%) Adj. PAT* 1QFY14 4,103 865 21.1 686 4QFY13 3,767 771 20.5 504 % chg (qoq) 8.9 12.1 60bp 36.3 1QFY13 3,373 739 21.9 540 % chg (yoy) 21.7 17.0 (85)bp 27
ACCUMULATE
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code IT 30,014 (2,908) 0.5 1347/775 133,568 10 18,308 5,415 TEML.BO TECHM.IN
`1,294 `1,470
12 months
For 1QFY2014, Tech Mahindra reported an inline operational performance while net profit came in better than expected due to higher other income. On an organic basis, revenues grew 2.5% qoq despite a sharp decline of ~4% in revenues from British Telecom (BT), which is reasonably good in our view. During the quarter, Tech Mahindra won three large deals in the ERP space, with TCV of ~US$50-60mn each, and continues to chase four large deals in the pipeline. The ramp-up on the recently won deals will lend visibility to revenue growth and is expected to offset the decline in revenues from BT. We maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock. Result highlights: For 1QFY2014, Tech Mahindra reported a revenue of US$724mn. During the quarter, Tech Mahindra won three large deals in the ERP space, with TCV of ~US$50-60mn each. The EBITDA margin came in at 21.1%, up ~60bp qoq and ahead of our expectations of 20.9%. Margins were aided by a favorable currency impact (130bp qoq), which although was partially offset by an 80bp negative impact from higher expenses (especially visa related). The consolidated PAT came in at `686cr, up 36% qoq, aided by other income of `207cr as against `38cr in 4QFY2013. Outlook and valuation: The Management indicated that the company remains confident of growth from the non-BT business with it continuing to see a robust deal pipeline across geographies. The revamped sales team post consolidation of Satyam and increased focus on sales efforts have started yielding results for the company. It signed three large deals in 1QFY2014, each having TCV of ~US$5075mn and is pursing another four. Tech Mahindras top five clients (excluding BT) also grew faster than the company (~8% sequential growth), indicating benefits from client mining. Tech Mahindra remains confident of improving revenue growth, citing healthy deal pipeline along with pick up in discretionary spending primarily in the US. Further given the significant currency tailwinds akin to peers, Tech Mahindra remains confident of maintaining margins at current levels. We expect a CAGR of 10.8% and 14.9% in USD and INR revenue respectively over FY2013-15E. We value Tech Mahindra at 13.5x FY2015E EPS of `109 and maintain our Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `1,470.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 47.2 15.8 26.8 10.2
3m (9.8)
1yr 3.5
39.4 52.6
Ankita Somani
+91 22 3935 7800 Ext: 6819 ankita.somani@angelbroking.com
1QFY14 4,103 2,569 1,534 669 865 117 747 22 207 932 233 699 13 686 686 686 29.0 37.4 21.1 18.2 16.7
4QFY13 3,767 2,397 1,371 599 771 121 651 25 38 663 146 517 14 504 134 638 504 26.9 36.4 20.5 17.3 13.4
FY2012 11,702 7,541 4,162 2,210 1,952 319 1,633 107 501 2,027 229 1,798 (8) 1,806 37 1,843 1,806 78.0 35.6 16.7 14.0 15.4
Inline performance
For 1QFY2014, Tech Mahindra reported USD revenue of US$724mn, up 3.7% qoq, aided by acquisition of Complex IT. Excluding the impact of Complex IT consolidation, the revenue growth stood at 2.5% sequentially. In INR terms, the company reported revenues of `4,103cr, up 8.9% qoq; this was the first quarter post merger of Tech Mahindra with Mahindra Satyam. The growth was healthy, despite the 4.3% qoq decline in revenue from its top client - BT to US$87mn and lower revenue from Comviva (~20% sequential fall) due to seasonality. BT revenues are expected to remain flattish in the near term. The revenue from nonBT accounts grew by 4.9% qoq to US$637mn. BT (post merger) now contributes 12% to revenues as against 17% in 1QFY2013. Tech Mahindra announced four key deal wins with three of them in the range of US$50-75mn each.
675 3.5
Industry wise, the revenue growth was across all the industry verticals except for banking, financial services and insurance (BSFI). The companys anchor industry vertical, telecom, posted a 3.7% qoq growth in revenue. Industry verticals such as manufacturing, technology, media & entertainment (TME) and retail, transport & logistics (RTL) also reported 3.5%+ sequential revenue growth. Though growth in BFSI was soft, large deal signings in the vertical during the quarter should help growth in the subsequent quarters. In tandem with its peers, the company is also seeing some improvement in discretionary spending and a better deal pipeline. Going forward, it expects growth to be driven by all verticals, with telecom (excluding BT) also contributing to the growth.
Geography wise, growth was led by America, the revenue from which grew by 11.1% qoq. Revenue from Europe was soft with just 0.6% qoq growth. The Management indicated that the deal pipeline remains healthy from emerging geographies, where MNCs are trying to expand their footprints.
Attriiton (%)
17%
16%
16%
16%
15%
(%)
75 74 73 72
1QFY13
2QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
The companys client metrics saw some qualitative movement with clients getting added in almost all the US$1mn+ revenue brackets. The company witnessed addition of one client in US$50mn+ revenue bracket and three clients in US$10-20mn revenue bracket. Overall, the company added 10 clients in US$1mn+ revenue brackets. The total active client base of the company stood at 567 as against 516 in 4QFY2013. The companys growth was driven by non top 10 clients, the revenue from which grew by 5.8% qoq. Revenue from the top 5/10 clients grew by 3.7%/1.6% qoq.
37.7
36.8
38.0
36.4
37.4
21.9
21.5
21.7
20.5
21.1
19.2
18.9
19.3
18.2
1QFY14
Tech Mahindra remains confident of improving revenue growth citing healthy deal pipeline along with pick up in discretionary spending primarily in the US. The Management sounded confident of demand from BFSI (despite sluggishness in 1QFY2014, seeing spending in areas of regulatory compliance), healthcare (healthy demand across payers and providers) and manufacturing. Further given significant currency tailwinds akin to peers, Tech Mahindra remains confident of maintaining margins at current levels. We expect a CAGR of 10.8% and 14.9% in USD and INR revenue respectively over FY2013-15E. The company expects ramp-ups in large deals won recently in the next couple of quarters. Transition costs in the same are expected to impact operating margins negatively. However, the company has maintained strong focus on productivity, and weeded out some low margin BPO contracts to offset the impact. Also, the company deferred its wage hike to 4QFY2014 instead of 2QFY2014 as it realigns the salary structure of the two merged entities. This will support operating margins of the company further. We expect EBITDA margin to be at 21.8% and 20.3% in FY2014 and FY2015, respectively from 21.4% in FY2013. PAT is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.6% over FY2014-15. We value Tech Mahindra at 13.5x FY2015E EPS of `109 and maintain Accumulate rating on the stock with a target price of `1,470. Tech Mahindra also proposed to increase the FII limit from current 35% to 45% of paid-in capital, which may make it eligible for inclusion in MSCI Global Standard Index, following Satyams removal in July.
(` )
Jan-10
Sep-10 May-11 13 10
Jan-12
Sep-12 May-13 7 4
Source: Company, Angel Research. Note: P/E includes profits of Mahindra Satyam from FY2012
Company Background
Tech Mahindra was founded in 1986 as a joint venture between Mahindra Group and British Telecom (BT). Later on, it started servicing other external clients as well (solely in the telecom industry), though it still derives ~13% of its revenue from BT. In June 2009, Tech Mahindra acquired a 42.7% stake in erstwhile Satyam Computers (now Mahindra Satyam).
104 (1,497)
10
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BVPS Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS Cash EPS Dividend Book value Dupont analysis Tax retention ratio (PAT/PBT) Cost of debt (PBT/EBIT) EBIT margin (EBIT/Sales) Asset turnover ratio (Sales/Assets) Leverage ratio (Assets/Equity) Operating ROE (%) Return ratios (%) RoCE (pre-tax) Angel RoIC RoE Turnover ratios( x) Asset turnover (fixed assets) Receivables days 7.6 74 6.3 59 5.8 78 7.5 78 9.0 78 16.9 18.1 23.5 20.1 36.8 37.5 27.6 46.2 30.9 27.2 52.9 27.9 23.0 52.1 22.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 7.6 0.2 22.3 0.9 1.2 0.1 6.3 0.4 38.3 0.7 1.0 0.2 5.8 0.4 28.5 0.7 1.1 0.2 7.5 0.2 27.9 0.7 1.1 0.2 9.3 0.2 22.1 49.3 60.3 4.0 257.0 78.0 164.0 4.0 365.2 82.6 98.8 5.0 288.7 108.8 130.1 5.0 389.8 109.0 132.1 5.0 492.7 26.3 21.5 5.0 0.3 3.5 17.7 26.2 16.6 7.9 3.5 0.3 1.3 7.5 7.9 15.7 13.1 4.5 0.4 1.0 4.6 5.7 11.9 9.9 3.3 0.4 0.7 3.2 5.2 11.9 9.8 2.6 0.4 0.5 2.5 4.8 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E
11
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Tech Mahindra No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
12