Beruflich Dokumente
Kultur Dokumente
ECONOMIC DIGEST
Vol.2 No.11 A joint publication of the Connecticut Department of Labor & the Connecticut Department of Economic and Community Development
site of the former Anaconda jobs lost during the recession E-Mail: decd@po.state.ct.us
(Continued on page 4)
● THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST
2
November 1997
Computer Services Industry Expanding
At A Pentium Speed
by J. Charles Joo, Research Analyst
As the graph below shows,
T hetry computer services indus-
in Connecticut has been Connecticut’s job growth rate was
trend with an almost 10 percent
job growth that year. U.S. em-
growing rapidly since the start of above the nation’s during 1991 ployment then grew faster during
this decade. From 1990 to 1996, and 1992. Even though 1991 1993 and 1994, but the State
this dynamic and ever- came back stronger in 1995
expanding industry’s em- and 1996. Overall, between
ployment grew by 82 per- Job Growth in Computer Services Industry 1990 and 1996,
1991 - 1996
cent, adding almost 9,000 20% Connecticut’s computer
jobs. Workers in that CT services industry employ-
15%
industry also were paid US ment grew 82 percent,
well, with an annual aver- 10% much faster than the
age salary of $60,555 in 5% nation’s 58 percent growth.
1996, considerably higher The computer services
than the $36,590 average 0% industry is a small but
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996
for all nonfarm workers. rapidly increasing part of
In each of the last six the services sector. Its
years, the computer services was the worst year of the latest employment made up 2.6 percent
industry has been adding jobs in recession in the State, the com- of total services sector employ-
both the nation and Connecticut. puter industry countered the ment in 1990, but it grew to 4.2
(Continued on page 4)
HOUSING UPDATE
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4
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST November 1997
LEADING AND COINCIDENT INDICATORS
105
LEADING INDEX 120
COINCIDENT INDEX
Peak
02/89
100
100
95
80 Peak
03/80 Trough
90 06/92
60 Peak Trough
Peak
85 05/74 01/83
12/69
40
80
Trough
Trough
09/75
10/71
75 20
70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
The distance from peak to trough, indicated by the shaded areas, measures the duration of an employment cycle recession. The vertical scale in
both charts is an index with 1987=100.
Source: Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, University of Connecticut. Developed by Pami Dua [(203) 461-6644,
Stamford Campus (on leave)] and Stephen M. Miller [(860) 486-3853, Storrs Campus]. Kathryn E. Parr [(860) 486-0485, Storrs
Campus] provided research support.
Manufacturing weekly
MANUFACTURING ACTIVITY
earnings increased 3.7
SEP SEP CHANGE AUG
percent over the year, (Not seasonally adjusted) 1997 1996 NO. % 1997
while the output index Average Weekly Hours 43.0 43.1 -0.1 -0.2 42.2
rose 2.5 percent from last Average Hourly Earnings $14.62 $14.06 $0.56 4.0 $14.52
Average Weekly Earnings $628.66 $605.99 $22.67 3.7 $612.74
September. Mfg. Output Index (1982=100)* 121.7 118.7 3.0 2.5 120.6
Production Worker Hours (000s) 6,921 6,908 13 0.2 6,660
Productivity Index (1982=100)* 187.6 183.4 4.2 2.3 186.5
Source: Connecticut Department of Labor
*Seasonally adjusted
Note: Beginning with the November 1996 release, all estimates for 1990:Q1 through 1996:Q3
are no longer consistent with 1969:Q1 to 1989:Q4. The estimates for 1969:Q1 to 1989:Q4 will
be revised by BEA in the second half of 1997.
1,600
May 1,556.8 1,581.0 1,607.0
1,550 Jun 1,556.8 1,584.2 1,613.2
1,500 Jul 1,557.7 1,588.0 1,620.5
Aug 1,561.9 1,591.9 1,620.5
1,450 Sep 1,563.1 1,590.9 1,622.6
1,400 Oct 1,560.8 1,592.5
Nov 1,565.4 1,595.3
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Dec 1,567.2 1,596.5
1,750
May 1,709.3 1,717.9 1,741.7
1,700 Jun 1,709.0 1,719.7 1,749.2
1,650 Jul 1,709.1 1,721.6 1,746.6
Aug 1,710.3 1,721.9 1,741.5
1,600 Sep 1,711.1 1,721.5 1,742.8
1,550 Oct 1,709.3 1,724.1
Nov 1,712.4 1,723.3
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Dec 1,714.8 1,722.0
AVERAGE WEEKLY INITIAL CLAIMS* (Seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 4,534 4,651 3,890
9,000
Feb 4,756 4,517 3,795
8,000 Mar 4,790 4,082 3,880
7,000 Apr 4,797 4,274 4,335
6,000 May 4,940 4,334 3,724
Jun 5,579 4,365 4,277
5,000
Jul 5,029 4,349 3,622
4,000 Aug 4,800 4,281 3,858
3,000 Sep 4,803 4,199 3,627
2,000 Oct 4,872 4,166
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Nov 4,986 3,907
Dec 4,200 4,501
* The methodology for this series has been revised; See Technical Notes, p.23.
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10
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST November 1997
ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS
REAL AVG MANUFACTURING HOURLY EARNINGS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan $9.28 $9.22 $9.09
9.6
Feb 9.20 9.10 9.06
9.4 Mar 9.17 9.12 9.09
1982-84 Dollars
AVG MANUFACTURING WEEKLY HOURS (Not seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 42.6 39.1 42.7
45
Feb 42.8 42.6 42.1
44 Mar 43.3 43.0 42.4
43 Apr 41.0 42.0 42.5
42 May 42.9 42.7 42.4
Jun 42.8 43.0 42.5
41
Jul 41.8 42.2 42.1
40 Aug 42.5 42.6 42.2
39 Sep 43.2 43.1 43.0
38 Oct 43.5 42.9
Nov 43.2 43.2
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Dec 43.5 43.4
HARTFORD HELP WANTED INDEX (Seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 32 35 35
120
Feb 35 33 36
100 Mar 36 34 34
Apr 33 34 36
1987=100
80
May 34 35 36
60 Jun 33 36 38
40 Jul 31 34 35
Aug 32 32 34
20 Sep 39 35 36
0 Oct 30 35
Nov 32 36
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Dec 40 35
DOL NEWLY REGISTERED EMPLOYERS (12-month moving average) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 826 810 833
1,100 Feb 844 794 840
1,000 Mar 833 812 856
Apr 813 813 849
900
May 827 811 856
800 Jun 824 838 848
Jul 819 833 856
700
Aug 821 833 862
600 Sep 822 838 854
500 Oct 823 825
Nov 827 825
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
Dec 828 828
BUSINESS SERVICES EMPLOYMENT (Not seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 80.7 86.2 96.1
110
Feb 82.3 88.8 97.5
100 Mar 83.1 90.9 99.9
Apr 84.2 91.4 100.2
Thousands
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12
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST November 1997
ECONOMIC INDICATOR TRENDS
PERSONAL INCOME (Seasonally adjusted) Quarter 1995 1996 1997
First 7.1 4.4 8.4
Year-over-year % changes
14
Second 5.6 4.9 6.0
12 Third 5.0 4.8 6.6
10 Fourth 5.2 5.5 6.4
8
6
4
2
0
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
14
Second 6.1 5.4 8.3
12 Third 2.3 4.8 10.9
10 Fourth 5.3 6.8 8.4
8
6
4
2
0
-2
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
U.S. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX (Seasonally adjusted) Quarter 1995 1996 1997
First 3.1 2.8 2.8
7 Second 3.0 2.8 2.8
Year-over-year % changes
U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (Not seasonally adjusted) Month 1995 1996 1997
Jan 2.8 2.7 3.0
7
Feb 2.9 2.7 3.0
Year-over-year % changes
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes. **Includes Indian tribal government employment.
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14
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST November 1997
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
BRIDGEPORT LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted
SEP SEP CHANGE AUG
1997 1996 NO. % 1997
For further information on the Danbury Labor Market Area contact Arthur Famiglietti at (860) 566-3472.
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
For further information on the Danielson Labor Market Area contact Noreen Passardi at (860) 566-3470.
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
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16
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST November 1997
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES
LOWER RIVER LMA Not Seasonally Adjusted
SEP SEP CHANGE AUG
1997 1996 NO. % 1997
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
*Total excludes workers idled due to labor-management disputes.
BRIDGEPORT LMA Civilian Labor Force 218,100 218,500 -400 -0.2 225,900
Employed 207,500 205,100 2,400 1.2 213,200
Unemployed 10,600 13,500 -2,900 -21.5 12,700
Unemployment Rate 4.9 6.2 -1.3 --- 5.6
DANBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 107,500 106,300 1,200 1.1 111,600
Employed 104,700 102,600 2,100 2.0 107,700
Unemployed 2,900 3,600 -700 -19.4 3,900
Unemployment Rate 2.7 3.4 -0.7 --- 3.5
DANIELSON LMA Civilian Labor Force 34,200 34,000 200 0.6 34,900
Employed 32,300 31,800 500 1.6 32,800
Unemployed 1,900 2,100 -200 -9.5 2,100
Unemployment Rate 5.5 6.3 -0.8 --- 6.1
HARTFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 590,500 584,800 5,700 1.0 599,200
Employed 565,800 552,700 13,100 2.4 569,200
Unemployed 24,700 32,100 -7,400 -23.1 30,100
Unemployment Rate 4.2 5.5 -1.3 --- 5.0
LOWER RIVER LMA Civilian Labor Force 12,800 12,100 700 5.8 13,600
Employed 12,400 11,600 800 6.9 13,100
Unemployed 400 500 -100 -20.0 500
Unemployment Rate 3.0 4.0 -1.0 --- 3.3
NEW HAVEN LMA Civilian Labor Force 272,700 271,100 1,600 0.6 279,800
Employed 261,400 256,900 4,500 1.8 265,900
Unemployed 11,300 14,200 -2,900 -20.4 13,900
Unemployment Rate 4.1 5.2 -1.1 --- 5.0
NEW LONDON LMA Civilian Labor Force 157,800 151,400 6,400 4.2 165,000
Employed 150,600 143,400 7,200 5.0 156,600
Unemployed 7,200 7,900 -700 -8.9 8,300
Unemployment Rate 4.6 5.2 -0.6 --- 5.1
STAMFORD LMA Civilian Labor Force 193,000 189,900 3,100 1.6 200,400
Employed 187,900 183,700 4,200 2.3 194,400
Unemployed 5,100 6,200 -1,100 -17.7 6,000
Unemployment Rate 2.7 3.3 -0.6 --- 3.0
TORRINGTON LMA Civilian Labor Force 38,200 38,100 100 0.3 39,600
Employed 37,100 36,600 500 1.4 38,100
Unemployed 1,100 1,500 -400 -26.7 1,500
Unemployment Rate 2.8 3.8 -1.0 --- 3.8
WATERBURY LMA Civilian Labor Force 120,000 116,400 3,600 3.1 123,600
Employed 114,800 109,900 4,900 4.5 117,100
Unemployed 5,200 6,500 -1,300 -20.0 6,500
Unemployment Rate 4.3 5.6 -1.3 --- 5.2
UNITED STATES Civilian Labor Force 136,375,000 134,230,000 2,145,000 1.6 137,460,000
Employed 129,972,000 127,529,000 2,443,000 1.9 130,865,000
Unemployed 6,403,000 6,700,000 -297,000 -4.4 6,594,000
Unemployment Rate 4.7 5.0 -0.3 --- 4.8
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
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20
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST November 1997
MANUFACTURING HOURS AND EARNINGS
AVG WEEKLY EARNINGS AVG WEEKLY HOURS AVG HOURLY EARNINGS
SEP CHG AUG SEP CHG AUG SEP CHG AUG
(Not seasonally adjusted) 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997
MANUFACTURING $628.66 $625.81 $2.85 $593.33 43.0 43.1 -0.1 42.2 $14.62 $14.52 $0.10 $14.06
DURABLE GOODS 643.44 636.34 7.10 605.31 43.3 43.2 0.1 42.3 14.86 14.73 0.13 14.31
Lumber & Furniture 467.43 471.42 -3.99 466.67 40.4 41.1 -0.7 40.9 11.57 11.47 0.10 11.41
Stone, Clay and Glass 592.41 627.46 -35.05 599.32 43.4 45.6 -2.2 44.1 13.65 13.76 -0.11 13.59
Primary Metals 630.14 617.87 12.27 580.32 46.3 45.1 1.2 43.6 13.61 13.70 -0.09 13.31
Fabricated Metals 607.75 599.13 8.62 571.33 44.2 43.7 0.5 42.7 13.75 13.71 0.04 13.38
Machinery 689.92 677.03 12.89 650.60 44.8 44.6 0.2 43.9 15.40 15.18 0.22 14.82
Electrical Equipment 502.23 512.73 -10.50 476.28 41.2 42.2 -1.0 40.5 12.19 12.15 0.04 11.76
Trans. Equipment 813.75 809.71 4.04 738.92 43.4 43.3 0.1 41.7 18.75 18.70 0.05 17.72
Instruments 583.57 562.22 21.35 575.40 41.3 40.8 0.5 42.0 14.13 13.78 0.35 13.70
Miscellaneous Mfg 561.08 563.72 -2.64 544.89 41.5 42.1 -0.6 41.0 13.52 13.39 0.13 13.29
NONDUR. GOODS 593.89 600.60 -6.71 563.14 42.3 42.9 -0.6 41.9 14.04 14.00 0.04 13.44
Food 492.48 559.33 -66.85 474.71 40.4 45.4 -5.0 41.1 12.19 12.32 -0.13 11.55
Textiles 499.22 474.43 24.79 482.17 43.6 41.8 1.8 43.4 11.45 11.35 0.10 11.11
Apparel 345.26 341.35 3.91 338.45 40.1 39.6 0.5 39.4 8.61 8.62 -0.01 8.59
Paper 707.78 711.78 -4.01 676.95 45.9 46.1 -0.2 45.1 15.42 15.44 -0.02 15.01
Printing & Publishing 599.79 596.90 2.88 551.48 39.8 39.9 -0.1 38.7 15.07 14.96 0.11 14.25
Chemicals 796.02 790.55 5.47 766.89 45.1 45.2 -0.1 44.9 17.65 17.49 0.16 17.08
Rubber & Misc. Plast. 513.25 495.60 17.65 487.92 42.7 42.0 0.7 42.8 12.02 11.80 0.22 11.40
CONSTRUCTION 793.07 778.74 14.33 778.50 41.5 40.9 0.6 41.9 19.11 19.04 0.07 18.58
LMAs AVG WEEKLY EARNINGS AVG WEEKLY HOURS AVG HOURLY EARNINGS
SEP CHG AUG SEP CHG AUG SEP CHG AUG
MANUFACTURING 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997 1997 1996 Y/Y 1997
Bridgeport $646.91 $633.57 $13.34 $628.42 42.7 43.1 -0.4 41.7 $15.15 $14.70 $0.45 $15.07
Danbury 669.53 665.34 4.19 663.99 45.3 45.2 0.1 45.2 14.78 14.72 0.06 14.69
Danielson 497.88 491.00 6.88 478.55 42.7 41.4 1.3 42.2 11.66 11.86 -0.20 11.34
Hartford 674.96 645.77 29.19 645.39 44.0 43.9 0.1 42.1 15.34 14.71 0.63 15.33
Lower River 521.64 496.40 25.24 514.59 42.0 40.0 2.0 41.6 12.42 12.41 0.01 12.37
New Haven 615.57 585.59 29.98 602.78 42.6 42.9 -0.3 41.6 14.45 13.65 0.80 14.49
New London 652.51 630.38 22.13 639.33 42.9 43.0 -0.1 42.2 15.21 14.66 0.55 15.15
Stamford 563.48 600.29 -36.81 553.15 41.1 41.6 -0.5 40.2 13.71 14.43 -0.72 13.76
Torrington 561.85 548.64 13.21 546.62 42.5 43.2 -0.7 41.6 13.22 12.70 0.52 13.14
Waterbury 591.98 587.81 4.17 592.19 43.4 44.7 -1.3 43.1 13.64 13.15 0.49 13.74
Current month's data are preliminary. Prior months' data have been revised. All data are benchmarked to March 1996.
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22
THE CONNECTICUT ECONOMIC DIGEST November 1997
TECHNICAL NOTES
BUSINESS STARTS AND TERMINATIONS
DOL newly registered employers are those businesses newly registered with the Labor Department’s unemployment insurance program
(including reopened accounts) during the month. DOL discontinued employers are those accounts that are terminated due to inactivity (no
employees) or business closure. Registrations and terminations of business entities as recorded with the Secretary of the State are an
indication of new business formation and activity. These registrations include limited liability companies, limited liability partnerships, and
foreign-owned (out-of-state) and domestic-owned (in-state) corporations.
INITIAL CLAIMS
Average weekly initial claims are calculated by dividing the total number of new claims for unemployment insurance received in the month by
the number of weeks in the month. A minor change in methodology takes effect with data published in the March 1997 issue of the DIGEST.
Data have been revised back to January 1980.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has identified the five towns of Canaan, Kent, North Canaan, Salisbury and Sharon as a separate area for
reporting labor force data. For the convenience of our data users, data for these towns are included in the Torrington Labor Market Area. For
the same purpose, data for the town of Thompson, which is officially part of the Worcester Metropolitan Statistical Area, are included in the
Danielson Labor Market Area. Also, data for Hopkinton and Westerly, Rhode Island are included in the New London Labor Market Area.
UI COVERED WAGES
UI covered wages is the total amount paid to those employees who are covered under the Connecticut’s Unemployment Insurance (UI) law for
services performed during the quarter. The fluctuations in the 1992-93 period reflect the effect of the changes in the tax law and the massive
restructuring in the state’s economy.
Leading Employment Index .......... +1.6 Business Activity Tourism and Travel
Coincident Employment Index ...... +8.0 New Housing Permits .................... +3.2 Tourism Inquiries ........................... -26.4
Electricity Sales ............................. +6.3 Tourism Info Centers ....................... -9.9
Total Nonfarm Employment .......... +2.0 Retail Sales ................................... +8.4 Attraction Visitors ........................... +2.5
Construction Contracts Index ........ -44.6 Hotel-Motel Occupancy ................. +0.1
Unemployment .............................. -1.1* New Auto Registrations ................. -20.4 Air Passenger Count ..................... +1.8
Labor Force ................................... +1.2 Air Cargo Tons ................................ -9.2
Employed ...................................... +2.5 Employment Cost Index (U.S.)
Unemployed ................................. -19.5 Total ............................................... +3.2
Business Starts Wages & Salaries .......................... +3.6
Average Weekly Initial Claims ...... -13.6 Secretary of the State .................. +34.4 Benefit Costs ................................. +2.0
Help Wanted Index -- Hartford ....... +2.9 Dept. of Labor .............................. +10.3
Average Ins. Unempl. Rate ......... -0.49* Consumer Price Index
Business Terminations U.S. City Average ........................... +2.2
Average Weekly Hours, Mfg ........... -0.2 Secretary of the State .................. +40.1 Northeast Region ........................... +2.3
Average Hourly Earnings, Mfg ...... +4.0 Dept. of Labor .............................. +15.0 NY-NJ-Long Island ......................... +2.1
Average Weekly Earnings, Mfg ..... +3.7 Boston-Lawrence-Salem ............... +2.6
Manufacturing Output ................... +2.5 Consumer Confidence
Production Worker Hours ............... +0.2 State Tax Collections ................... +12.4 U.S. ............................................. +15.0
Productivity .................................... +2.3 Corporate Tax .................................. -7.5 New England .............................. +29.7
Personal Income Tax .................... +16.7
UI Covered Wages ......................... +8.4 Real Estate Conveyance Tax .......... +2.7 Interest Rates
Personal Income ............................ +6.4 Sales & Use Tax ........................... +10.4 Prime .......................................... +0.25*
Conventional Mortgage ............... -0.80*
*Percentage point change; **Less than 0.05 percent; NA = Not Available
THE CONNECTICUT
ECONOMIC DIGEST
A joint publication of
The Connecticut Departments of Labor and
Economic and Community Development
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