Environmental Protection Agency

Workshop on Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Analysis for

the Proposed Revisions to the National Renewable
Fuels Standard Program

Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions from

Land User Change
A Closer Look on Brazil

Andre M. Nassar
Director-General, ICONE

Washington
11 June 2009
 ILUC Emissions: Three Topics

  Projections on land allocation (CARD/FAPRI) at a national

level (out of US)
  Sugarcane: control case minus imports only case

  Per acre emission factors (Winrock International)

  Step one – step two approach
  One shot emission in the year zero

  Calculation of total emissions

  Net expansion in total agricultural land times per acre emissions
  100 year period
 Projections on Land Allocation
(Brazilian Land Use Model)
Outputs from CARD/FAPRI model: Improvements to be made:
  National harvested area: wheat,   Regionalize the country:
cotton, corn, barley, soybean, rice   Emissions factors can be
and sugarcane. connected directly to the results.
  Total agricultural land expansion is   Project pasture land endogenously:
used for emissions calculations.   Capture pasture intensification due
  Types of land displaced by the to competition with crops.
expansion of ag land are not   Separate winter (wheat) and
identified. second crops (corn) from the land
use analysis.
  Include regional land availability
taking into account:
  Legal restrictions;
  Suitability.
 Macro-Regions Used in the Brazilian Land Use Model

Tropical Forest

Grasslands

Savannas

Savannas

Savannas and
Atlantic Forest
North Amazonia
Center West Cerrado
MAPITO and Bahia
Northeast coast
Southeast
Atlantic Forest
South
and Grasslands

Source: ICONE.
 Brazil: Land Allocated to Agriculture According to the BLUM
Regions
(million acres)
Macro-regions, 2008 Brazil, 1997 to 2008

700
MAPITO and Bahia 79.2 12.3
600
Northeast coast 27.1 10.2 500
400
North Amazonia 118.0 9.4 300
200
Center West Cerrado 131.9 24.9
100
Southeast 104.8 22.1 0

1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Pastures South 44.7 34.7
Crops
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Crops Pastures
Crops: Soybean, Corn (1st crop), rice, cotton,
dry bean and sugarcane

Source: IBGE/CONAB. Elaboration: ICONE.

 Absolute Variation: Land Allocated to Agriculture
(million acres, 1997 to current)
Soybean, Corn (1st crop), rice, cotton, dry bean, Total ag land
sugarcane and pastures

-1.0
MAPITO and Bahia 3.2
4.2
3.0
Northeast coast 2.4
-0.6 29.4
North Amazonia 34.9
4.3
-3.0
Center West Cerrado 9.6
12.6
1.8
Southeast 6.2
4.3
Pastures South -5.2
-0.9
4.3
Crops

-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
-6.0
-2.0
2.0
6.0
10.0
14.0
18.0
22.0
26.0
30.0

Source: IBGE/CONAB. Elaboration: ICONE.

 Example of Direct Substitution: Remote
Sensing
South-Central Region: Classes of Land Use Converted to Sugarcane,, 2007 and 2008
(1,000 ha)

Crops Pastures Citrus Other

2,500 100%
2,250 90%
2,000 80% 42%
48% 45%
1,750 991 70%
1,500 60%
1,250 50%
1,000 40%
557
750 434 30%
1,152 56% 53%
50%
500 20%
572
250 580 10%
0 0%
2007 2008 2007-08 2007 2008 2007-08
Source: CANASAT/INPE, published in Nassar, A.M., Rudorff, B. F. T., Antoniazzi, L. B., Aguiar, D. A., Bacchi, M. R. P. and Adami, M, 2008. Prospects of the
Sugarcane Expansion in Brazil: Impacts on Direct and Indirect Land Use Changes. In: Sugarcane Ethanol: Contributions to Climate Change Mitigation and
the Environment. Zuurbier, P, Vooren, J (eds). Wageningen: Wageningen Academic Publishers.
 Example of Expansion in the Amazon: Data
from Soybean Moratorium Project
Amazon Biome: Deforestated Area under Monitoring from 2006 to 2008
by Land Use Classes (hectares)
Total area cleared
monitored by the
moratorium: 157,896
hectares 83,872
53% Pastures

Deforestation
and burning
Crops

Vegetation
50,240 6,328 recover
32% 4% Other

3,730 13,727
2% 9%

Source: Abiove e Globalsat (www.abiove.com.br).

 Total Herd (1,000 heads) and Stocking Rate
(animals/ha)
region brazil region brazil
60 220 1.6 1.2

1.4
50 200 1.0
1.2
40 180 0.8
1.0

30 160 0.8 0.6

0.6
20 140 0.4
0.4
10 120 0.2
0.2

0 100 0.0 0.0

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Brazil South Brazil South
Southeast Center-west Cerrados Southeast Center-west Cerrados
North Amazon Northeast Costal North Amazon Northeast Costal
MAPITO and Bahia MAPITO and Bahia

Elaboração: ICONE.
 Brazilian Land Use Model: Land Availability
(1,000 acres)
(E) Total available
(A) Total Agricultural (B) Pastures suitable
Region (C) Legally available (D) Total available discounting legal
Land for crops
reserve deficit
South 1 84,441 14,039 8,382 11,461 6,493
Southeast 2 133,791 74,959 16,691 32,644 26,299
Center-west Cerrados 3 158,570 105,149 31,161 65,555 56,703
North Amazon 4 124,129 96,563 45,293 318,883 261,867
Northeast Costal 5 35,995 0 481 481 -353
MAPITO and Bahia 6 92,157 20,670 61,907 98,872 84,420
Total 629,084 311,380 163,914 527,895 435,430
(A) Total land used for soybean, corn (1st crop), cotton, rice, drybeans, sugarcane, commercial forests and pastures.
(B) Pastures that are under slopes below 12 percent and out of semi-arid climate.
(C) Land under remaining vegetation in areas that can be used for crops (slopes below 12 percent). Legal reserve provision (amount of land with natural vegetation that
must be preserved) is discounted. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations.
(D) Land uncer remaining vegetation in areas that can be used for crops (slope below 12 percent). Legal reserve provision (amount of land with natural vegetation that must
be preserved) is not discounted. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations. Soil suitability was not considered for the calculations.
(E) Total land available if the deficits in legal reserve existing in cleared land is eliminated with forest recover or compensation. Soil suitability was not considered for the
calculations.

Source: ICONE.
 Recalculating Total Emissions Changing Per Acre
Emissions Factors for Brazil

475 ths acres

1521 ths acres

499 ths acres -44% 100 years
-26% 30 years
86 ths acres
93 ths acres
2,058 ths acres
373 ths acres
145 ths acres

77 ths acres

Additional land converted in

Brazil when ethanol demand is
shocked (Control Case –
Imports Only Case)
Source: Figure extracted from EPA’s Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis: Changes to Renewable Fuel Standard Program
 Recalculating Total Emissions Changing Per Acre
Emissions Factors for Brazil

Crops Savanna
100%
1,132 ths acres 1,132 ths acres

55%
0% -61% 100 years
Sugarcane -49% 30 years
45%
2,058 ths acres
0% 926 ths acres

Source: Figure extracted from EPA’s Draft Regulatory Impact Analysis: Changes to Renewable Fuel Standard Program