Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | August 27, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | August 27, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Indian Rupee touches fresh lows of 66.08 in todays trade. German Ifo Business Climate rose to 107.5-mark in August. API crude inventories expected to fall by 0.1 mn bbl Reuters. LME Copper inventories slipped around 2 percent in todays trade. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Open High

as at 4.30 pm 27 August 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5426.50 18460.72 13551.75 1883.71 16904.76

5427.40 18460.72 13678.79 1896.63 17064.51

5274.25 17921.82 13517.10 1881.44 16660.80

5287.45 17968.08 13542.37 1885.84 16660.80

-3.45 -3.18 -0.69 -0.11 -1.65

Source: Reuters

European equities are trading on a negative note today ahead of the US consumer confidence data. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US stock futures are trading in the red. German Ifo Business Climate increased by 1.3 points to 107.5-mark in August as against a rise of 106.2-level in July. Indian Rupee depreciated by more than 2 percent today on the back of heavy month end dollar demand from oil companies and importers. Further, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt coupled with worries over the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and economic growth of India continue to act as a negative factor for the currency. The currency touched all time low of 66.08-mark in todays trading session. Spot gold prices gained around 0.4 percent today on the back of recovery in SPDR gold holdings. However, sharp upside in prices was capped as a result of weak global market sentiments coupled with stronger DX. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from downside in base metals complex along with strength in the DX, Spot silver prices declined around 0.2 percent. However, sharp fall in prices was cushioned as a result of positive movement in gold prices. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee was supportive. The base metals group was trading on a negative note today on the back of weak global markets coupled with stronger DX. LME Copper prices slipped around 0.9 percent as a result of rise in copper inventories by more than 2 percent which stood at 576,350 tonnes. Further, expectations of unfavorable economic data from US acted as a negative factor. Depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices increased around 0.9 percent today on the back of tension in Syria and US said it will hold Syrias government for the use of chemical weapons. Further, forecast for decline in API crude oil inventories supported an upside in prices. However sharp upside in prices was restricted on account of strength in the DX. In the Indian markets, Rupee depreciation was supportive for prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 0.1 million barrels for the week ending on 23rd August 2013.

Nikkei Kospi FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 27 August 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

81.39 1.3367 64.98

81.62 1.339 66.075

81.305 1.3323 64.98

81.50 1.3348 65.85

0.07 -0.15 2.43

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 27 August 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Oct13 MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Oct 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Sep 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Aug13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Aug13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Aug13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Aug13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1404.55 1403.80 31974.00 24.30 0.2415 53850 106.14 111.16 6882 7311.75 473.90 1983.25 126.15 2213 141.95 14485 936.00 1895.00 119.35

1412.50 1412.20 32933.0 24.34 0.2415 55590 106.97 111.92 7054 7366.50 485.50 1986.25 128.40 2224 146.00 14567 950.00 1899.00 122.00

1396.14 1398.70 31974.0 23.94 0.2395 53850 105.88 110.73 6882 7275.00 473.90 1969.50 126.20 2204 142.00 14361 936.00 1872.25 119.40

1410.54 1412.00 32799.00 24.23 0.24008 55377 106.89 111.85 7048 7283.75 481.10 1973.50 127.80 2210 144.75 14390 943.40 1876.75 120.70

0.44 1.36 2.90 -0.16 1.16 2.96 0.92 1.01 2.62 -0.94 1.52 -0.69 2.04 -0.86 2.15 -1.00 1.24 -1.09 1.51

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | August 27, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, precious metals and crude oil prices are expected to trade higher on the back of upward trend that is established since morning trade. Recovery in SPDR gold holdings will support an upside in gold prices. Crude oil prices will trade on a positive note on account of tensions in Syria, that are creating supply concerns from the Middle East region. Also, expected decline in API crude oil inventories will additionally support upside. We expect base metals in international markets to trade lower on the back estimates of decline in house prices index and consumer confidence data from the US. In the Indian markets, Rupee has depreciated sharply in todays trade and commodity prices will get support from the same.

Technical Outook for evening session 27 August 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Sep13 Nymex Crude Oil Oct13 Natural Gas Aug13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc Aug13 Lead Aug13 Aluminum Aug13 Nickel Aug13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

32450 1393 54600 23.53 6940 105.35 224 7200 474 126.2 142.6 118.6 925

32600 1400 55000 23.9 7000 106.35 227 7240 478 127 143.8 119.6 934

32800 1411.6 55400 24.25 7048 106.86 229.8 7286 481.35 127.9 144.85 120.8 943.4

32950 1418 55700 24.52 7080 107.15 231 7360 484 128.4 146 122 950

33110 1425 56050 24.8 7140 108.15 233 7400 487 129 147 122.8 960

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

German Ifo Business Climate S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence

Euro US US

1:30pm 6:30pm 7:30pm

107.5 -

107.1 11.9% 79.6

106.2 12.2% 80.3

High Medium High