This research evaluates factors that may contribute to the growing obesity rate in the U.S.

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This research evaluates factors that may contribute to the growing obesity rate in the U.S.

Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)

Als DOC, PDF, TXT **herunterladen** oder online auf Scribd lesen

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of Obesity in the U.S.

By

Amber Oldfield

St. John’s University- MBA

New York, NY

Amber.oldfield08@my.stjohns.edu

(570) 407-0224

2

I. Introduction

causes of obesity throughout the United States. The National Institute of

Health (NIH) defines obesity as body mass index (BMI) greater than 30. The

study will be a cross-sectional analysis evaluating each of the 50 states of

the U.S. and potential contributing factors to obesity. All of the information

obtained is from year end 2007. Six factors will be evaluated to discover if

they do indeed contribute to a growing obesity rate. These independent

variables that will be evaluated are per capita income, unemployment rate,

percent of graduates from High School (25 years and older), diabetes rate,

population density, and percentage of uninsured individuals. After evaluating

the effect of each of these variables on the obesity rate, it will be clear the

degree to which they actually affect the obesity rate in the U.S., if indeed

they have any affect at all. This research is relevant and will prove valuable

to doctors, dieticians, trainers, and health care insurers. The research may

also prove to be valuable to those that are currently obese and are trying to

determine what factors are contributing to their condition. The results of this

research can help all of these individuals understand obesity to a greater

degree and may change the action they take in trying to alleviate the

condition.

obesity. Some of this research has proven to more successful than others in

determining what may be contributing to a growing obesity rate. Below is a

list of this prior research detailing the independent variables used, with the

corresponding functional specifications, and the resulting coefficient of

determination (R2).

+ -

3

R2 = .363

+ + -

degrees)

R2= .694

+ +

R2= .431

- - -

R2= .575

already been done or to attempt new independent variable combinations

in the hopes of increasing the coefficient of determination (R2).

III. Methodology

evaluating six independent variables that may contribute to obesity. The

hypothesis stated concludes that the connection between the obesity rate

and per capita income will be negative; this means that as per capita income

increases, the obesity rate will decrease. The assumption between the

obesity rate with the unemployment rate, diabetes rate, and percent

uninsured will be positive. This means that as these independent variables

4

increase it will be assumed that the obesity rate will increase as well. As in

the case of the obesity rate and per capita income; the percent of High

School graduates (over age 25), and population density will have a negative

effect on the obesity rate. The data for this research was obtained from

statemaster.com, U.S. Department of Commerce, the Bureau of Labor

Statistics, the Center for disease Control (CDC), and the U.S. Census Bureau.

A more detailed description of these sources can be found in the appendix of

this report. All of the data analysis was performed using SPSS. The

techniques that will be used in this research are Graphical presentations-

scatterplots and histograms, Descriptive Statistics, Correlation and

Regression Analysis.

Eqn. 1

- + - +

- +

Obesity Rate= f (Per Cap. Income, Unemployment %, % Grads HS, Diabetes Rate, Population

Density, % Uninsured)

IV. Results

Rate. The histogram appears to be approximately normally distributed with a

slight skewness to the left.

5

14

12

10

Frequency

2

Mean =25.656

Std. Dev. =2.8188

0

N =50

18.0 20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0 32.0

ObesityRate

Table 1, below, confirms what was shown in the histogram that the

dependent variable, Obesity Rate, is skewed to left with a skewness equal to

-.194. Also, the kurtosis for the population density shows that the data is

leptokurtic, meaning that the data for population density if thin in the mid-

region but is greater in the tail regions – where there is high and low

population density.

6

Income 6 00

Rate

(25 years and

older)

Density

Uninsured

variables in relation to the dependent variable, the Obesity Rate. All of the

correlations presented agree with Eqn.1- the functional specification. The per

capita income has a moderately strong negative correlation with the obesity

rate at -.542. The unemployment rate has a moderately weak positive

correlation with the obesity rate at .413. The percent of graduates from HS

(25 years and older) has a moderately strong negative correlation at -.513.

The diabetes rate has the strongest correlation with the obesity rate of all

the independent variables evaluated at .685. The population density has a

weak negative correlation with the obesity rate at -.321. The percent

uninsured also has a rather weak correlation with the obesity rate, but is

positive, at .237. It is important to note that high multi-collinearity does exist

in a few places in the correlation matrix as indicated with an asterisk (*).

Multi-collinearity is when there is high correlation between the independent

variables. This may result in biased coefficients in the estimated sample

regression line equation.

7

y Rate Capita ment Rate Grads es Rate on Uninsur

Incom from Density ed

e HS

(25

years

and

older)

Income

Rate

HS (25 years

and older)

*

Density

Uninsured *

income. The scatterplot appears to possess a moderately strong, negative,

linear relationship.

8

32.0

30.0

28.0

ObesityRate

26.0

24.0

22.0

20.0

18.0

PerCapitaIncome

unemployment rate. The scatterplot appears to possess a moderately weak,

positive, linear relationship.

9

32.0

30.0

28.0

ObesityRate

26.0

24.0

22.0

20.0

18.0

UnemploymentRate

years and older)

graduates from High School (25 years and older). The scatterplot appears to

possess a moderately strong, negative, linear relationship.

10

Scatterplot of Obesity Rate v. High School Grads (25 yrs. and older), r = -.513

32.0

30.0

ObesityRate

28.0

26.0

24.0

22.0

20.0

18.0

GradfromHS25yearsandolder

diabetes rate. The scatterplot appears to possess a moderately strong,

positive, linear relationship.

11

32.0

30.0

28.0

ObesityRate

26.0

24.0

22.0

20.0

18.0

DiabetesRate

density. The scatterplot appears to possess a weak, negative, linear

relationship.

12

32.0

30.0

ObesityRate

28.0

26.0

24.0

22.0

20.0

18.0

PopulationDensity

uninsured. The scatterplot appears to possess a weak, positive, linear

relationship.

13

32.0

30.0

ObesityRate

28.0

26.0

24.0

22.0

20.0

18.0

PercentageUninsured

Table 3, below, shows the regression analysis for the research. The

independent variables were entered stepwise with the probability to enter

set at .200 and the probability to remove set at .250. After entering stepwise,

the resulting independent variables that remained were the diabetes rate,

population density and the unemployment rate. Therefore the variables that

were removed were per capita income, % grads from HS (25 years and

older), and the percent uninsured. The resulting R Square is moderately

strong at .663.

.719*Unemployment Rate

(3.17)**

14

(.003)

r (.626) (-.369)

(.281)

SE= 1.688

determination is equal to .663. This means that 66.3% of the variation in the

obesity rate can be explained by or attributed to variation in the diabetes

rate, population density and the unemployment rate.

T-Statistics

significance will the following null and alternative hypothesis: (Results are

evident in the table above.)

Ho= B = 0

The alternative was accepted for each of the independent variables as the

(p-value/2) is equal to approximately .00 for each. These independent

variables are significant at the 1% level of significance.

For each percentage increase in the diabetes rate the obesity rate would

increase by 1.413, on average with all things equal.

For each increase in population density (population per sq. mile) the obesity

rate would decrease by .004, on average with all things equal.

For each percentage increase in the unemployment rate the obesity rate

would increase by .719, on average with all things equal.

15

F- Statistic

given that the F- statistic is equal to 30.23 and the significance is equal to

.000. Where:

Ho= B =B

Diabetes Rate Population Density =B Unemployment Rate =0

zero, given that the F significance is equal to .000.

histogram is appears to be approximately normally distributed.

Histogram of Residuals

10

8

Frequency

Mean =6.3976602E-15

Std. Dev. =1.63519572

0

N =50

-2.50000 0.00000 2.50000

RES_1

16

Obesity Rate, and the predicted value. The figure appears to be positive,

linear and possesses no outliers.

32.0

30.0

28.0

ObesityRate

26.0

24.0

22.0

20.0

18.0

PRE_1

Figure 10, below, presents the scatterplot of the residuals v. per capita

income. Correlation exists as there appears to be linear relationship with no

visible curves.

17

2.50000

RES_1

0.00000

-2.50000

PerCapitaIncome

unemployment rate. There appears to be linear relationship with a “cluster”

of points. There also appears to be one possible outlier.

18

2.50000

RES_1

0.00000

-2.50000

UnemploymentRate

years and older)

grads (25 years and older). There appears to be a linear relationship with no

visible curves.

19

Scatterplot of Residuals v. Percent of High School Grads (25 years and older)

2.50000

RES_1

0.00000

-2.50000

GradfromHS25yearsandolder

rate. There appears to be a linear relationship with no curves and two

potential outliers.

2.50000

RES_1

0.00000

-2.50000

DiabetesRate

20

density. There appears to be a discontinuous, random, linear relationship

with a few potential outliers.

2.50000

RES_1

0.00000

-2.50000

PopulationDensity

percent uninsured. There appears to be a random, linear relationship.

21

2.50000

RES_1

0.00000

-2.50000

PercentageUninsured

V. Conclusions

The research presented was fairly successful, but may need some

changes before being presented to a panel of professionals. The explanatory

power of .663 proves to be moderately strong therefore validity may be

found from this research. The greatest effect on obesity from this research

proved to be the diabetes rate. This may warrant further investigation as

there may be a question of causality. Is it diabetes that increases obesity, or

does obesity increase diabetes? This is an issue that may be of some interest

to healthcare professionals and they may need to do further research to

draw any definitive conclusions. The multicollinearity presented in the

correlation matrix may have biased the coefficients presented in Eqn. 2.

Therefore the interpretation of this sample regression line may not be very

accurate. The research may be improved by investigating other independent

variables that were not used in this research and not used in prior research

as outlined in Section II- Prior Research. This research can be utilized as a

starting point for healthcare professionals in further investigating the link

between diabetes and obesity. Also, government and public policy advocates

may have an interest in the link between the unemployment rate and the

resulting increase in obesity.

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