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CN3135 Process Safety, Health and Environment

Lecture 3: Consequence Modeling

A/Prof. Foo Swee Cheng (chefoosc@nus.edu.sg) Room: E4-05-27

CONSEQUENCE MODELLING
Evaluate the consequence of a hazardous incident using: 1. Source term modeling Estimate the amount or flowrate of release 2. Dispersion modeling Define the vulnerable zone resulting from a release of o Toxic hazard o Flash fire hazard o Vapor cloud explosion hazard 3. Effect modeling Toxic effects Thermal radiation effects: e.g. jet fire, pool fire, fireball Explosion effects 4. Impact Risk: Individual risk; e.g. 10 6 /person-year Societal risk: No. of deaths in exposed-population Damage/Loss: Sensitive sites / Properties

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SOURCE MODELS: Expected Release

Release in a normal operation or process Evaporation from an open vessel (eqn 3-12) Vessel filling (eqn 3-23) Fugitive emission from process equipment Flanges; pump seals; breathing of tanks Electroplating baths; operations generating powders Conditions of releasing materials Gases or vapors Mists or fogs Aerosols

SOURCE MODELS: Unexpected Release

Conditions of releasing materials Liquid release High pressure gas/vapor release

Liquid above normal BP: Flashing liquid release

Speed of release Complete rupture: fast release Instantaneous release Release through fluid path: slow release Fluid path < 10 cm: Flow through a hole Fluid path > 10 cm: Flow through a pipe

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LIQUID FLOW THROUGH AN ORIFICE

Eqn 4-7:

Qm = AC0[2r(DP)]1/2

A: Cross-section area of the orifice

DP: gauge pressure

C0: the orifice discharge coefficient: 0.61 for flow through a sharp edged orifice 0.81 for flow through a short pipe 1.00 for flow through a smooth and rounded orifice Where the geometry is uncertain, use C0 = 1.0 Flow of Liquid through Pipes covered in Fluid Mech., so ignore for this module.

VAPOR FLOW THROUGH AN ORIFICE

Un-choked flow Eqn 4-48: Qm =C0APo{2gcM/(RgTo)[/( 1)][(P/Po)2/ (P/Po)( + 1)/]}1/2 Po: upstream pressure P: down stream pressure : Heat capacity ratio = CP/CV Choked flow: Eqn 4-49: PChoked /Po = {2/( + 1)}/( - 1) Chocked flow occurs: P/Po < {2/( + 1)}/( - 1) Eqn 4-50: (Qm)ckoked = C0APo{gcM/(RgTo)[2/(+1)]( + 1)/( - 1)}1/2 For air: {2/( + 1)}/( - 1) = 0.528; Po > 1.9 atm choked flow

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VAPOR FLOW THROUGH A PIPE

Discharge from pipe length of 130 to 220 pipe diameters to the atmosphere Adiabatic flow prevails Adiabatic flow: Model of choice for compressible gas discharge through pipe: eqns 4-56 to 4-60 Choked flow: eqn 4-64 Apply eqns 4-63 to 4-67 In most practical situations, choked flow arises See example 4-5

FLASHING LIQUID:
Liquid under Pressure above Normal Boiling Point
Complete rupture: Instantaneous release & flashing Determine vapor discharge: use eqn 4-87 or 4-91 for fV

Fluid path-length <10 cm: Hole release

Liquid discharge/external flashing: eqn 4-7 Qm then multiply by fV Fluid path-length > 10 cm: pipe release Po > Psat: equilibrium flashing: eqn 4-92 Po = Psat: two-phase choked flow: eqn 4-105

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CONSEQUENCY MODELING: Learning Outcomes

From the lecture, you should be able to:

1. Explain the term consequence modeling qith respect to source terms, dispersion modeling & effect modeling
2. Calculate the source term for different physical discharge scenarios 3. Understand the assumptions inherent in the source term calculations Attempt Problems 4-3, 4-21 in the textbook and 4N* in the Additional Problem Sheet

DISPERSION MODELLING: Atmospheric Dilution

Molecular/eddy diffusion: Internal energy Turbulent air entrainment Wind

Vertical mixing Atmospheric stability Buoyancy

Real world conditions

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Puff Model: Instantaneous point source

Emission stopped before cloud reaches receptor Snapshot Foot print: Series of snapshots

Chemical Tank

population

Plume Model: Continuous Point Source

Emission continuous when cloud reaches receptor

Chemical Tank

population

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DISPERSION MODELLING
Diffusion equation:
c + u c = K 2c + K 2c + K 2c x y z y2 z2 x2 t x

Analytical solutions: eqns 5-10 to 5-36

Puff:

Qm* , C(x, y, z, t)

Plume: Qm , C(x, y, z) U: wind velocity along the x-axis Kx , Ky , Kz : eddy diffusivities in x, y, z direction are function of x, y, z and stability

Pasquill-Gifford Dispersion Model

Dispersion coefficients Kx , Ky , Kz : Replaced by the experimentally derived dispersion coefficients, sx = sy , sz as a function of x, the downwind position of the receptor (Table 5-2 & 5-3) Atmospheric stability classes: Weather conditions & wind speed (Table 5-1) Unstable: A & B; lapse rate, < 10C/km Provide turbulent vertical mixing Neutral: C & D; (dry) lapse rate, = 10C/km Adiabatic expansion/compression Stable: E & F; lapse rate, > 10C/km Prevent upward mixing

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TOXIC EFFECT CRITERIA

Concentration of Concern

ERPGs refer to exposure durations of 1 hour (with shorter periods for some chemicals)

NEUTRAL BUOYANT DISPERSION

Ground release: z = 0 Puff: fixed coordinates Puff: Ground level cloud centre See example 5-2 Plume: Above ground release: z = Hr Puff: moving coordinates Puff: Total integrated dose, ground level Plume: See example 5-1 (eqn 5-38) (eqn 5-41) (eqn 5-46) (eqn 5-54) (eqn 5-57) (eqn 5-49)

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Notes on P.G. Dispersion Model

Puff releases: Dispersion coefficients are defined at the centre of the puff (x = ut) Eqn 5-45 defines the isopleths of a concentration at x, y, z wrt to the centre of the puff P.G. model: cannot predict near field concentrations P.G. model: Assumes neutrally-buoyant releases P.G. model: Predict time-averaged concentrations

DENSE GAS DISPERSION Britter & McQuaid Model (1988)

Correlation based on experimental data and dimensional analysis Unable to account for Terrain Roughness Atmospheric conditions Dense-gas reaches the ground quicker & travels on the ground before diluted into a neutrallybuoyant gas

Dense-to-buoyant transition Neutrally buoyant

Dense gas

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DISPERSION MODELING: Learning Outcomes

From the lecture, you should be able to: 1. Understand the concepts of dispersion modeling based on prevailing wind conditions and atmospheric stability 2. Apply the Pasquill-Gifford Model to calculate dispersion of ideal puffs and plumes 3. Know the assumptions and limitations of the P-G model Attempt problem 5-6 in the textbook and 5-D*, 5-E* in the Additional Problem Sheet

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