DEMAND AND SUPPLY ANALYSIS

The figure shown below was reached using headcount of potential

customers within the business location; the researcher used headcount during
pick season/day and non-pick days, usually weekend especially holidays where
our target market is taking a trip going to their provinces. Since our target
market is those people within the vicinity of our business location which is
DLTB Buendia Makati, the researcher no longer needed to use the historical
population of Makati City that have been gathered.
Table1. Individual Historical Population
Year Population of Quezon City
2007
1,870,044
2008
2,085,615
2009
2,317,337
2010
2,574,821
2011
2,860,912
Figure 2.0

The projected population term 2012 to 2016 was achieved thru the use of
weighted moving average statistical straight line. Among all the methods it has
the lowest standard deviation.

Yc = a + bx
A = y( x) - x( xy)
________________________
N ( x) - ( x)
B = n ( xy) ( x)( y)
_______________________
n ( x) ( x))

Yc Projected population
Y Total Population
X Specified number of period
N Number of periods
A&B Value to be computed to arrive at projected population

Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
TOTAL

Y
XY
2,582
2,582
2,718
5,436
2,861
8,583
3,012 12,048
3,170 15,850
14,343 44,499

1
2
3
4
5
15

X
1
4
9
16
25
55

Figure 2.1

A = 14,343(55) 15 (44,499)
5(55) (15)2

B = 5(44,499) 15 (14,343)
5(55) (15) 2

= 788,865 667,485

= 222,495 215,145

275 225

275 - 225

= 121,380

= 7,350

50

50

A = 2,427.6

B = 147

Projected Population
Year
a
b
2012 2,4427.6 147

x
6

bx
882

Projected Population
25,310

2013 2,4427.6 147

1,029

25,457

2014 2,4427.6 147

1,176

25,603.6

2015 2,4427.6 147

1,323

25,750.6

2016 2,4427.6 147 10 1,470

25,897.6

Figure 2.2

The percentage of the respondents who are willing to try our product is
based on the computed projected demand.

Projected Demand
Year
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017

Population Demand Percentage Days of Operation

25,309.6
25,456.6
25,603.6
25,750.6
25,897.6

55%
55%
55%
55%
55%

364
364
364
364
364

Projected
Demand
5,066,982
5,096,411
5,125,841
5,155,270
5,184,700

Figure 2.3

The table shows the maximum capacity or the amount that our machines can
produce to supply the needs of our customers.

Historical Supply

Competitors
Hawkers
Empanada
Mister Donut
Historical
Supply

2007
7,9155
68,002.5
266,583.75
413,741.25

2008
8,420.75
70,836
279,376.875
358,633.625

2009
8,771.625
73,787.4
336,375
418,934.025

2010
9,134.625
76,861.8
479,555.25
565,557.675

2011
12,008.875
80,007
336,514.125
428,530

Figure 2.4

The table shows the total supply of our indirect competitors during the past
years. These data will be needed for the computation of the projected supply for
the next five years.
Yc =a + bx
A = y( x2) - x (xy)
n( x2) ( x)2
B = n (xy) ( x)( y)
n( x2) ( x)2)

Yc Projected population
Y Total population
X Specified number of period
N number of periods
A&B value to be computed to arrive at the projected population
Year X
Y
xy
X2
413,741.25
413,741.25
1
2007 1
358,633.625
717,267.25
4
2008 2
418,934.025 1,256,802.075 9
2009 3
565,557.675
2,262,230.7
16
2010 4
428,530
2,142,650
25
2011 5
Total 15 2,185,396.575 6,792,691.275 55
Figure 2.5

A = 2,185,396.575(55) 15(6,792,691.275)
5(55) (15)2
= 120,196,811.6 101,890,369.1
275- 225
= 18,306,442.5
50
A = 366,128.45
B = 5(6,792,691.275) 15 (2,185,396.575)
5(55) (15)2
= 33,963,456.38 32,780,948.63
275 225
= 1,182,507.75
50
B = 23,650.155

Supply Projection
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

a
366,128.45
366,128.45
366,128.45
366,128.45
366,128.45

B
x
bx
Projected supply
23,650.155 6
141,900.93
2,338,671.63
23,650.155 7 165,551.085
2,728,450.24
23,650.155 8
189,201.24
3,118,228.84
23,650.155 9 212,851.395
3,508,007.45
23,650.155 10 236,501.55
3,897,786.05
Figure 2.6

After analyzing the demand and supply aspect, the demand gap was computed.
DEMAND AND SUPPLY GAP
Demand Gap
YEAR PROJECTED DEMAND PROJECTED SUPPLY DEMAND GAP
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

4,343,127.4
4,368,352.6
4,393,577.8
4,418,802.1
4,444,028.2

2,338,671.63
2,728,450.24
3,118,228.84
3,508,007.45
3,897,786.05
Figure 2.7

2,004,455.77
1,639,902.36
1,275,348.96
910,794.65
546,242.15