The Impacts of Extreme Winter Weather on Ontario Energy

Joan Klaassen, Heather Auld and Shouquan Cheng Meteorological Service of Canada Environment Canada Ontario Region

Vulnerability to Winter Weather Extremes

Heavy Snow/Strong Winds Extreme Cold

Freezing Rain Ice Storms

Warmer Winters

Ice Storm 98
Canadas most costly ($) weather disaster ever Lasted almost a week Impacted 4 provinces; 7 states Over 1 million households without power Collapsed communication towers, electrical transmission/distribution systems, phone lines Deaths: 28 in Canada; 19 in U.S.

Vulnerability to Ice Storms In Recent Past and Current Climate

Compare Ice Storm 98 to other 19th/20th century Ice Storms Ontario/Northern U.S. Assess both impacts & storm characteristics Any trends in Great Lakes freezing rain/severe ice storms?? Use statistical weather map typing procedures to identify severe freezing rain weather patterns Any trends??

Damage to Trees and Structures (in order of increasing ice load)

Slippery ROADS Ice on trees shining in the sun OUTAGES in communications/ power distribution, transmission TREES Bending birch trees Broken branches on brittle, injured trees OUTAGES transmission lines, galloping Broken branches DECIDUOUS trees OUTAGES distribution NOT by trees Broken branches EVERGREEN trees
Adapted from: Jones, Mulherin 1998

Freezing rain severity

Hazardous freezing rain episode

OUTAGES transmission NOT by trees COMMUNICATION TOWER failures Most SEVERE ICE STORM

205 U.S. Towers 1929-March 2002 26 Canadian Towers 1958-2002 Ice Storm 98: 4 Montreal + 1 Kingston

Icing Related Communication Tower Collapses

Canadian Tower Locations U.S. Tower Locations

CRREL Database

Comparing Ice Storm 98 to Historical Ice Storms in Ontario/Northern U.S.

Identified 24 significant Southern/Eastern Ontario Ice Storms since mid-1800s + Ice Storm 98 22 Northern U.S. Ice Storms also selected from 20th century

Ice Storm 98 was Ontario Ice Storm of: 9 Greatest Duration 9 Areal Extent 9 Ice Accumulation 9 Impacts (and hydro downtime) Ice Storm 98 Duration Areal Extent Ice Accumulation Maximum Hydro Downtime 6 days (3 separate events) 110,000 km2 95 mm 3 weeks 24 Ice Storms (Ontario: 1844-2002) 12 hrs 4 days 4,000 - 80,000 km2 30 to 70-80 mm <1 day to 2 weeks

Assessed 22 significant Northern U.S. ice storms since 1909 8 storms communication tower collapses Impacts on Southern Ontario??? 8 storms 20+ mm freezing rain (significantly more freezing rain U.S.) 5 storms <20 mm; 8 snow or rain; 1 with no impact

Tracksof of the major ice storms Tracks Major Ice Storms

which impacted Southern/Eastern Ontario During the period 1948-2002

which impacted Southern Ontario during the period 1948-2002

PERSISTENT ARCTIC HIGH

Ice Storm 98
1

1948 Jan 1 PERSISTENT 1953 Jan 8-9 ARCTIC HIGH 1953 Jan 9-10
4 1967 Jan 26-27

1968 Jan 16 1971 Feb 4-5 1976 Mar 1-5 1986 Dec 24-25 1990 Feb 15-16
2

1997 Mar 14 see separate graphic 1998 Jan 4-9

12 hour storm motion Centre of the storm

of the major ice storms TracksTracks of Major Ice Storms

which impacted Northern U.S. States Bordering Southern Ontario During the period 1948-2002

which impacted Northern U.S. States bordering Southern Ontario during 1948-2002

PERSISTENT ARCTIC HIGH

2
1948 1948 Jan Jan 1 1 1959 1959 Nov Nov 28 28 1961 1961 Feb Feb 26 26 1964 1964 Dec Dec 3-5 3-5 1971 1971 Feb Feb 4 4 1971 1971 Feb Feb 23 23 1972 1972 Dec Dec 16 16 1976 1976 Mar Mar 1-5 1-5 1989 1989 Jan Jan 7-8 7-8 1991 1991 Mar Mar 3-6 3-6 1994 1994 Feb Feb 8-9 8-9 1997 1997 Feb Feb 6 6 1997 1997 Mar Mar 14 14 see separate graphic 1998 1998 Jan Jan 4-9 4-9 1999 1999 Jan Jan 2-3 2-3 2002 2002 Jan Jan 31 31 Communications tower collapse 12 hour storm motion Centre of the storm

Climatology of Severe Ice Storms

STORM TRACK ANALYSIS (since 1948)

9 Origin usually S Central, SE U.S. 9 Gulf of Mexico moisture source (Atlantic Ocean) 9 Majority slow-moving low pressure systems 9 Arctic high pressure north of storms Major difference between U.S. & Ontario storms U.S. storms ~100-200 km further sth than Ont storms

Power Line Climatological Design Criteria Radial Ice Amounts

CSA/CEA design radial ice amounts (mm on 1 inch conductor)

Communications Structures Climatological Design Criteria

Radial ice amounts

10 mm 25 mm 40 mm
Class Min. ice (mm) I 10 II 25 III 40

50 mm

CSA S37 STANDARD

Trends in Occurrence of Freezing Rain??

Ottawa
100 80 60 40 20 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
b=0.174 P=0.343 95 ZR hours

14 Ontario stations, Montreal (1953-2001) 12 U.S. Great Lakes region sites (1973-2000) Risk same or slight decrease in NW, S, Central Ontario Increasing but NOT SIGNIFICANT trends N Ontario, Ottawa & Montreal

Great Lakes influence on freezing rain occurrence? DECREASED frequency W/S shores Lk Ontario, N shore Erie in fall, early winter & early spring

Trends in Weather Patterns Associated with Freezing Rain??

Statistical synoptic map type methodology used in Toronto Heat Alert System adapted for use in study 4 weather patterns or types identified as most highly associated with frz rain events at Canadian/U.S. locations No significant trends found in weather types BUT Direction of trends in types same as most trends in observed freezing rain frequencies

Increased Vulnerability to Ice Storms with Climate Change?

Storm track analysis supports speculation that if tracks shift Nth under Climate Change, frequency of severe ice storms in Srn Ontario could increase But still ??? on how/if storm tracks will change/lead to changes in Ice Storm frequencies

Increased Vulnerability to Ice Storms with Climate Change?

Synoptic Map Typing Approach used with 3 GCMs data to investigate projected frequency of changes in frz rain weather patterns with Climate Change By 2050, 3 models project increases in weather types for frz rain events >=6 hrs OR weather types associated with more severe ice storms Greater increase in Eastern/Northern Ontario; smaller increases in Southern Ontario Great Lakes could mitigate impacts

Increased Vulnerability to Ice Storms with Climate Change?

Changes in Frequency of Freezing Rain Weather Patterns by 2050 for Toronto and Ottawa
40 35
% Change (1958-01 to 2041-60)

CGCM2 data
34%

Toronto Ottawa

30%

30 25 20 15 10 5 0
-1%

20%

9% 7%

-5 Frz Rain >=1 hr Frz Rain >=4 hrs Frz Rain >= 6 hours

Impacts of Warming Winters on Ontario Energy Demand

Globally, Canada and Ontario: 1990s warmest decade, 1998 warmest year on record since instrumental record commenced in mid-1800s North American heating requirements declined significantly during several years of the 1990s Study undertaken to investigate possible trends in Heating Degree Days where Heating Degree Days (HDD) are defined as a measure of heat energy required to maintain a residence or building at a comfortable temperature of 18C.

Study Findings
At 8 of 10 stations HDD annual minimum during 1998 (1998 ranked second to 1999 at 2 Ottawa stations) Annual HDD decreased at all stations over period of record All stations showed significant decrease in winter HDD since at least 1960 BUT
Annual Heating Degree Days Toronto
5000 4750 4500 Heating Degree Days 4250 4000 3750 3500 3250 3000 2750 R2 = 0.3123 p = 0.0000 Decadal Averages
Best-Fit Linear Trend -5.19 HDD/year (1900-2001)

5000 4750 4500 4250 4000 3750 3500 3250 3000 2750

Greatest variability in HDD also occurred during the 1990s Record/Near Record Maximum Winter HDD at several locations in 1994

2500 2500 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Heating Degree Day Year

Projected Winter Temperature Changes between 1975-1995 and 2080-2100

Canadian Model (CGCM1) Source: CCCma

Projected Changes in Canadian Extreme Minimum Temperatures

-15 -15

-20 -20 -25 -25

perature (C Tem )

Year: 1985 2050 2090

Temperature (degrees C)

-30 -30
-35 -35

-40 -40

1985 2050 2090

Source: Kharin & Zwiers (2000)

10

10

20 Recurrence time40 (years) Recurrence Time in Years

20

40

80

80

Canadian Model (CGCM1) projections of changes in average Canadian minimum temperatures that can be expected to recur once every 10, 20, 40, or 80 years.

Conclusions.
Vulnerability to ice and heavy snow storms interrupting our electricity supply and distribution could increase under climate change Heavy Snow/Strong Winds Especially with continued urbanization/growth of society dependent on uninterrupted electric supply, just in time Extreme Cold delivery Good news story .warmer winters under climate change should mean Warmer less energy demand lower energy costs Freezingand Rain Winters Ice StormsBUT Still higher energy demand when extreme cold temperatures occur due to normal climate variability

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